Pub Date : 2007-02-01DOI: 10.5089/9781451866056.001
C. Allard
This paper analyses how globalization has affected inflation in the New EU Members States (NMS), and Poland in particular, since 1995. It finds prices have become less sensitive to domestic economic conditions as trade integration rose, possibly because monetary policy incentives increasingly shifted toward meeting price stability objectives. Quantitatively, globalization appears to have lowered Polish prices by ½ to 1 percentage point annually since 1995, substantially more than in advanced economies. However, future inflation-dampening effects in the NMS are likely to be smaller as the pace of increases in trade openness moderates.
{"title":"Inflation in Poland: How Much Can Globalization Explain?","authors":"C. Allard","doi":"10.5089/9781451866056.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866056.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses how globalization has affected inflation in the New EU Members States (NMS), and Poland in particular, since 1995. It finds prices have become less sensitive to domestic economic conditions as trade integration rose, possibly because monetary policy incentives increasingly shifted toward meeting price stability objectives. Quantitatively, globalization appears to have lowered Polish prices by ½ to 1 percentage point annually since 1995, substantially more than in advanced economies. However, future inflation-dampening effects in the NMS are likely to be smaller as the pace of increases in trade openness moderates.","PeriodicalId":181797,"journal":{"name":"European Economics eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114263029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economic theory and empirical evidence clearly show that social exclusion dimensions are inter-related. Notwithstanding that, dimensions are usually assumed independent from one another in the economics literature. In this paper we explore the inter-dependency of social exclusion dimensions and study the transmission of deprivation among them. In particular, we propose the use of stochastic epidemic models, which are typically used to study the transmission of infectious diseases, to the analysis of deprivation diffusion among social exclusion dimensions with the aim of acquiring a deeper understanding of the mechanism governing deprivation transmission. We also provide an empirical implementation that investigates the consequences, in terms of future deprivation, for Italian and Spanish women of being jobless, as opposed to doing paid work. We also investigate the consequences of being unemployed versus being inactive. We conclude that working seems to act as a protective mechanism to shocks. In addition, conditional on losing one’s job, women who subsequently search for a job (unemployed) are more likely to experience contagion than women who do not search (inactive).
{"title":"Empirical Modeling of Deprivation Contagion among Social Exclusion Dimensions (Using MCMC Methods)","authors":"A. Poggi, Xavier Ramos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.969397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.969397","url":null,"abstract":"Economic theory and empirical evidence clearly show that social exclusion dimensions are inter-related. Notwithstanding that, dimensions are usually assumed independent from one another in the economics literature. In this paper we explore the inter-dependency of social exclusion dimensions and study the transmission of deprivation among them. In particular, we propose the use of stochastic epidemic models, which are typically used to study the transmission of infectious diseases, to the analysis of deprivation diffusion among social exclusion dimensions with the aim of acquiring a deeper understanding of the mechanism governing deprivation transmission. We also provide an empirical implementation that investigates the consequences, in terms of future deprivation, for Italian and Spanish women of being jobless, as opposed to doing paid work. We also investigate the consequences of being unemployed versus being inactive. We conclude that working seems to act as a protective mechanism to shocks. In addition, conditional on losing one’s job, women who subsequently search for a job (unemployed) are more likely to experience contagion than women who do not search (inactive).","PeriodicalId":181797,"journal":{"name":"European Economics eJournal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131236649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aleksander Berentsen, Esther Bruegger, S. Loertscher
Consider a society where all agents initially play "fair" and one agent invents a "cheating" strategy such as doping in sports. Which factors determine the success of the new cheating strategy? In order to study this question we consider an evolutionary game with local information. Three factors determine the imitation dynamics of the model: the location and the type of the innovator, the distribution of types, and the information available to the agents. In particular we find that the economy is more likely to end up in a state where all agents cheat if the innovator is of low type or when the agents are maximally segregated.
{"title":"The Evolution of Cheating in Asymmetric Contests","authors":"Aleksander Berentsen, Esther Bruegger, S. Loertscher","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.965648","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.965648","url":null,"abstract":"Consider a society where all agents initially play \"fair\" and one agent invents a \"cheating\" strategy such as doping in sports. Which factors determine the success of the new cheating strategy? In order to study this question we consider an evolutionary game with local information. Three factors determine the imitation dynamics of the model: the location and the type of the innovator, the distribution of types, and the information available to the agents. In particular we find that the economy is more likely to end up in a state where all agents cheat if the innovator is of low type or when the agents are maximally segregated.","PeriodicalId":181797,"journal":{"name":"European Economics eJournal","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122752120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A fixed exchange rate regime eliminates one degree of freedom in absorbing macroeconomic shocks. Therefore, there is a call for higher labor market flexibility in countries which are members of the monetary union or those which intend to join the monetary union. Focusing on the cross-country analysis of labor markets in the enlarged European Union over 1995-2004, this paper aims to assess empirically the role of aggregate wages as a correction mechanism for dealing with economic disturbances. We apply classical time series/panel, Bayesian, and cointegration techniques to determine the extent to which aggregate wages can accommodate shocks in the economy.
{"title":"Aggregate Wage Flexibility in Selected New EU Member States","authors":"Ian Babetskii","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.963980","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.963980","url":null,"abstract":"A fixed exchange rate regime eliminates one degree of freedom in absorbing macroeconomic shocks. Therefore, there is a call for higher labor market flexibility in countries which are members of the monetary union or those which intend to join the monetary union. Focusing on the cross-country analysis of labor markets in the enlarged European Union over 1995-2004, this paper aims to assess empirically the role of aggregate wages as a correction mechanism for dealing with economic disturbances. We apply classical time series/panel, Bayesian, and cointegration techniques to determine the extent to which aggregate wages can accommodate shocks in the economy.","PeriodicalId":181797,"journal":{"name":"European Economics eJournal","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123603248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Government expenditure on formal residential care and home-help services for the elderly significantly reduces 45-59 year old women’s informal care-giving affecting both the extensive and the intensive margin. Allowing for country fixed-effects and country-specific trends and correcting for attrition, the estimates – based on the European Community Household Panel – imply that a 1000 Euro increase in the government expenditure on formal residential care and home-help services for the elderly decreases the probability of informal care-giving outside of the caregiver’s household by 6 percentage points. Formal care substitutes for informal care that is undertaken outside of the carer’s own household, but does not substitute for intergenerational household formation. A simulation exercise shows that an increase in government formal care expenditure is a cost-effective way of increasing the labour force participation rates.
{"title":"Informal and Formal Care in Europe","authors":"Tarja K. Viitanen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.970484","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.970484","url":null,"abstract":"Government expenditure on formal residential care and home-help services for the elderly significantly reduces 45-59 year old women’s informal care-giving affecting both the extensive and the intensive margin. Allowing for country fixed-effects and country-specific trends and correcting for attrition, the estimates – based on the European Community Household Panel – imply that a 1000 Euro increase in the government expenditure on formal residential care and home-help services for the elderly decreases the probability of informal care-giving outside of the caregiver’s household by 6 percentage points. Formal care substitutes for informal care that is undertaken outside of the carer’s own household, but does not substitute for intergenerational household formation. A simulation exercise shows that an increase in government formal care expenditure is a cost-effective way of increasing the labour force participation rates.","PeriodicalId":181797,"journal":{"name":"European Economics eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130331864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper provides the solution to a dynamic portfolio problem of an investor who faces borrowing and short sales constraints in a setting with stochastic interest rates. The multi-asset dynamic problem is reduced to a constrained quadratic optimization problem which is similar to the well-known problem studied in static mean-variance portfolio theory. As an example and illustration of the general results, the paper focuses on the closed-form portfolio solution of a borrowing constrained long-term investor who cannot perfectly replicate very long-term real bonds and instead uses other securities (e.g. stocks) to hedge real interest risk. The efficiency loss due to, e.g., such a borrowing constraint is addressed.
{"title":"Interest Rate Uncertainty and Strategic Asset Allocation with Borrowing and Short Sales Constraints","authors":"Carsten Sørensen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.966207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.966207","url":null,"abstract":"The paper provides the solution to a dynamic portfolio problem of an investor who faces borrowing and short sales constraints in a setting with stochastic interest rates. The multi-asset dynamic problem is reduced to a constrained quadratic optimization problem which is similar to the well-known problem studied in static mean-variance portfolio theory. As an example and illustration of the general results, the paper focuses on the closed-form portfolio solution of a borrowing constrained long-term investor who cannot perfectly replicate very long-term real bonds and instead uses other securities (e.g. stocks) to hedge real interest risk. The efficiency loss due to, e.g., such a borrowing constraint is addressed.","PeriodicalId":181797,"journal":{"name":"European Economics eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117022102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides a comparison of tax morale between inhabitants of East and West Germany in its post-reunification period, using three World Values Survey/European Values Survey waves between 1990 and 1999. German reunification is particularly interesting for the analysis of tax morale as it is close to a natural experiment. Many factors can be controlled because they are similar, as, e.g., a common language, similar education systems and a shared cultural and political history prior to the separation after the Second World War. As a consequence, an East-West comparison has a methodological advantage compared to cross-country studies. Our findings show higher tax morale in East than in West Germany. However, in only 9 years after reunification, tax morale values strongly converged, especially due to a strong change in the level of tax morale in the East. We suggest that this convergence in tax morale between East and West Germany, despite efforts of the federal government to increase deterrence, indicates that tax morale is more strongly driven by other factors than deterrence.
{"title":"Tax Morale After the Reunification of Germany: Results from a Quasi-Natural Experiment","authors":"Lars P. Feld, B. Torgler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.965414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.965414","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a comparison of tax morale between inhabitants of East and West Germany in its post-reunification period, using three World Values Survey/European Values Survey waves between 1990 and 1999. German reunification is particularly interesting for the analysis of tax morale as it is close to a natural experiment. Many factors can be controlled because they are similar, as, e.g., a common language, similar education systems and a shared cultural and political history prior to the separation after the Second World War. As a consequence, an East-West comparison has a methodological advantage compared to cross-country studies. Our findings show higher tax morale in East than in West Germany. However, in only 9 years after reunification, tax morale values strongly converged, especially due to a strong change in the level of tax morale in the East. We suggest that this convergence in tax morale between East and West Germany, despite efforts of the federal government to increase deterrence, indicates that tax morale is more strongly driven by other factors than deterrence.","PeriodicalId":181797,"journal":{"name":"European Economics eJournal","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125864912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides a critical overview and a detailed research agenda for scholars interested in regional studies with a special focus on old and new European Union member states. The focus is on the microeconomic foundations of structural change and its spatially asymmetric impact on labour markets. Structural change has been long neglected, but the availability of new data and the specific nature of economic transition in new member states has brought again this issue to the fore, suggesting that it might provide an explanation also of several typical features of regional imbalances in old member states. The literature provides theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence to confirm this.
{"title":"A New Regional Geography of Europe? The Labour Market Impact of the EU Enlargements","authors":"F. E. Caroleo, Francesco Pastore","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.969620","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.969620","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a critical overview and a detailed research agenda for scholars interested in regional studies with a special focus on old and new European Union member states. The focus is on the microeconomic foundations of structural change and its spatially asymmetric impact on labour markets. Structural change has been long neglected, but the availability of new data and the specific nature of economic transition in new member states has brought again this issue to the fore, suggesting that it might provide an explanation also of several typical features of regional imbalances in old member states. The literature provides theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence to confirm this.","PeriodicalId":181797,"journal":{"name":"European Economics eJournal","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127097631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper explores the determinants of individual well-being as measured by self-reported levels of satisfaction with income. Making full use of the panel data nature of the German Socio-Economic Panel, we provide empirical evidence for well-being depending on absolute and on relative levels of income in a dynamic framework. This finding holds after controlling for other influential factors in a multivariate setting. The main novelty of the paper is the consideration of dynamic aspects: individual's own history as well as the relative income performance with respect to the others living in the society under analysis do play a major role in the assessment of well-being.
{"title":"Individual Well-Being in a Dynamic Perspective","authors":"C. D’Ambrosio, J. Frick","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.969617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.969617","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the determinants of individual well-being as measured by self-reported levels of satisfaction with income. Making full use of the panel data nature of the German Socio-Economic Panel, we provide empirical evidence for well-being depending on absolute and on relative levels of income in a dynamic framework. This finding holds after controlling for other influential factors in a multivariate setting. The main novelty of the paper is the consideration of dynamic aspects: individual's own history as well as the relative income performance with respect to the others living in the society under analysis do play a major role in the assessment of well-being.","PeriodicalId":181797,"journal":{"name":"European Economics eJournal","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126245677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper discusses a factor model for estimating monthly GDP using a large number of monthly and quarterly time series in real-time. To take into account the different periodicities of the data and missing observations at the end of the sample, the factors are estimated by applying an EM algorithm combined with a principal components estimator. We discuss the in-sample properties of the estimator in real-time environments and methods for out-of-sample forecasting. As an empirical application, we estimate monthly German GDP in real-time, discuss the nowcast and forecast accuracy of the model and the role of revisions. Furthermore, we assess the contribution of timely monthly data to the forecast performance.
{"title":"Real-Time Forecasting of GDP Based on a Large Factor Model with Monthly and Quarterly Data","authors":"C. Schumacher, J. Breitung","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.965685","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.965685","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses a factor model for estimating monthly GDP using a large number of monthly and quarterly time series in real-time. To take into account the different periodicities of the data and missing observations at the end of the sample, the factors are estimated by applying an EM algorithm combined with a principal components estimator. We discuss the in-sample properties of the estimator in real-time environments and methods for out-of-sample forecasting. As an empirical application, we estimate monthly German GDP in real-time, discuss the nowcast and forecast accuracy of the model and the role of revisions. Furthermore, we assess the contribution of timely monthly data to the forecast performance.","PeriodicalId":181797,"journal":{"name":"European Economics eJournal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134056396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：