To estimate the potential economic burden of long COVID in Australia.
A stock-and-flow model of weekly estimated numbers of people with long COVID (January 2021 to June 2023); application of proxy cost estimates from people living with myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome; time series analysis of labour market and social security datasets.
The working age Australian population.
The likely number of Australians severely impacted by long COVID; the economic cost of long COVID; and the impacts of long COVID, determined by analysis of labour market data.
At its peak in late 2022, between 181 000 and 682 000 Australians may have experienced some long COVID symptoms, of whom 40 000–145 000 may have been severely affected. Severe cases potentially decreased to affecting 10 000–38 000 people by June 2023. The likely economic burden of long COVID in Australia during 2022 was between $1.7 billion and $6.3 billion (some 0.07% to 0.26% of gross domestic product). Labour market data suggest that between 25 000 (February 2023) and 103 000 (June 2023) more working age Australians reported being unable to work due to long term sickness than would have been predicted based on pre-COVID-19 trends. This does not appear to have translated into increased claims for Disability Support Pensions, but numbers of working age Carer Allowance recipients have grown markedly since 2022.
Long COVID likely imposed a small but significant aggregate toll on the Australian economy, while exposing tens of thousands of Australians to substantial personal economic hardship and contributing to labour market supply constraints. Yet while some signal from long COVID is discernible in the labour force data, Australia lacks adequate direct surveillance data to securely guide policy making.
To investigate associations between sociodemographic factors, pre-existing chronic comorbidities, and general practitioner-led diagnosis of long COVID.
We conducted a retrospective observational case–control study using de-identified electronic general practice data, recorded between January 2020 and March 2023, from 869 general practice clinics across four primary health networks in Victoria and New South Wales.
Sociodemographic factors and pre-existing chronic comorbidities associated with general practitioner-led diagnosis of long COVID.
A total of 1588 patients had a recorded general practitioner-led long COVID diagnosis. Females exhibited a higher likelihood of general practitioner-led long COVID diagnosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.58; adjusted confidence interval [aCI], 1.35–1.85) compared with males. Patients aged 40–59 years had a higher likelihood of general practitioner-led long COVID diagnosis (aOR, 1.68; aCI, 1.40–2.03) compared with patients aged 20–39 years. The diagnosis was more likely in patients of high socio-economic status (aOR, 1.37; aCI, 1.05–1.79) compared with those of mid socio-economic status. Mental health conditions (aOR, 2.69; aCI, 2.25–3.21), respiratory conditions (aOR, 2.25; aCI, 1.85–2.75), cancer (aOR, 1.64; aCI, 1.15–2.33) and musculoskeletal conditions (aOR, 1.50; aCI, 1.20–1.88) were all significantly associated with general practitioner-led long COVID diagnosis.
Female sex, middle age, high socio-economic status and pre-existing comorbidities, including mental health conditions, respiratory conditions, cancer and musculoskeletal conditions, were associated with general practitioner-led long COVID diagnosis among general practice patients. These factors largely parallel the emerging international evidence on long COVID and highlight the patient characteristics that practitioners should be cognisant of when patients present with symptoms of long COVID.
To compare hospital admission costs for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases to hospital admission costs for other viral pneumonia cases in Australia, and to describe hospital admission costs for post-COVID-19 condition.
A cost comparison analysis of hospital admissions due to COVID-19 or other viral pneumonias between 1 January 2020 and 30 June 2021 at Victorian public health acute and subacute services.
Demographic characteristics, clinical outcomes (including diagnoses, impairment, subacute admission, intensive care unit admissions, ventilation, and length of stay) and cost data (including diagnostic-related groups, and total, direct and indirect costs).
During the study period, 3197 patients were admitted to hospital due to COVID-19 and 15 761 were admitted for other viral pneumonias. Admissions for COVID-19 cost 29% more than admissions for other viral pneumonias. Admissions for COVID-19 requiring intensive care unit admission incurred significantly higher mean costs (A$120 504 or US$90 595) compared with those not requiring intensive care unit admission (A$19 634 or US$14 761). The adjusted cost of admissions related to post-COVID-19 condition was A$11 090 or US$8 337, and these admissions were significantly more likely to be elective. Direct costs accounted for most of the costs for all groups, and admissions for post-COVID-19 condition used less allied health services than other groups.
Given its recent emergence, cases of acute COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 condition have had a significant additional financial impact on Australian hospitals. Further studies are required to understand long term costs and identify trends over time in the context of increased vaccination rates and subsequent variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
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