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Future projections of precipitation and temperature extremes at Sohra (Cherrapunji) using Statistical Downscaling Model 利用统计降尺度模型预测索拉(切拉蓬吉)未来的极端降水和温度
IF 0.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.54302/mausam.v75i1.6081
Raju Kalita, Dipangkar Kalita, Atul K. Saxena
The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM 4.2) is used to project the future precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at Sohra, one of the extreme places on earth, using the predictors of the Second-Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The SDSM was calibrated with daily precipitation and temperature data from 1979 to 2005 and validated from 2006 to 2020. Future scenarios generated under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 are divided into three future periods, Near Future (2021-2040), Mid Future (2041-2071), and Far Future (2071-2100). It is found that the precipitation and maximum/minimum temperature at Sohra are influenced mainly by the major global predictors; specific humidity at 850 hPa height (s850) and mean temperature at 2 m (temp)/near surface specific humidity (shum), respectively. The downscaled result reveals an increase in Monsoon precipitation in the range of 266-1543 mm under various RCPs compared with the base periods 1985-2005 during the Near Future and 1979-2008 during the Mid and Far Future. Also, annual maximum and minimum temperature increases in the range of 1-2.8 °C and 1.2-3.6 °C for all RCPs in the future.
利用第二代加拿大地球系统模型(CanESM2)的预测因子,使用统计降尺度模型(SDSM 4.2)预测地球上极端地区之一索拉未来的降水量和最高、最低气温。第二代加拿大地球系统模式利用 1979 年至 2005 年的日降水量和温度数据进行了校准,并在 2006 年至 2020 年期间进行了验证。在三种代表性浓度路径(RCP)2.6、4.5 和 8.5 下生成的未来情景被分为三个未来时期,即近期未来(2021-2040 年)、中期未来(2041-2071 年)和远期未来(2071-2100 年)。研究发现,索赫拉的降水量和最高/最低气温主要受全球主要预测因子的影响,即 850 hPa 高度的比湿度(s850)和 2 米处的平均气温(temp)/近地面比湿度(shum)。降尺度结果显示,与近未来的 1985-2005 年基期和中远未来的 1979-2008 年基期相比,各种 RCPs 下的季风降水量增加了 266-1543 毫米。此外,在所有 RCPs 中,未来年最高和最低气温的升幅分别为 1-2.8 ℃ 和 1.2-3.6 ℃。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring extreme flood events of a western state of India during monsoon season of 2019 from space 从太空探索 2019 年季风季节印度西部一个邦的极端洪水事件
IF 0.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.54302/mausam.v75i1.3568
ANOOP KUMAR MISHRA, Mohammad Suhail Meera, V. Nagaraju
Maharashtra experienced a series of calamitous flood events during July and September months of monsoon season of 2019 affecting millions of people. Mumbai, Palghar, Thane, Raigad, Satara, Sangli, Pune and Kolhapaur were most affected districts of Maharashtra. Near real time satellite observations from space have been used in this study to monitor these events. Availability of accurate precipitation information at very fine resolution of 5 km (half hourly) from a rainfall model that integrates observations from multi-spectral satellite sensors offers an excellent opportunity to monitor flood events effectively. Utility of this model was tested by investigating flood events of Kedarnath in 2013, Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 and Tamil Nadu in 2015. This model was also used to explore recent flood events of Kerala and Assam in 2019.         Mumbai, Palghar, Thane, Raigad, Satara, Sangli, Pune and Kolhapaur districts received very heavy rainfall from multiple rain episodes during first, third and last week of July, and second and last week of September that resulted in heavy flooding over these districts. Results reveal that few of these districts received cumulative rainfall in excess of 2000 mm from multiple heavy rainy events during July to September. Mumbai, Palghar, Thane and Raigad received a cumulative rainfall in excess of 1700 mm during July and September. Sangali district received an excess of about 200% rainfall than average monthly rain during July 2019. Heavy cumulative rainfall from multiple rain spells resulted in heavy flooding over various districts of Maharashtra. Results reported in this study highlight the importance of mitigation and adaptation strategies against flood disasters.
马哈拉施特拉邦在 2019 年季风季节的 7 月和 9 月经历了一系列灾难性洪水事件,数百万人受到影响。孟买、Palghar、Thane、Raigad、Satara、Sangli、Pune 和 Kolhapaur 是马哈拉施特拉邦受灾最严重的地区。本研究利用近实时空间卫星观测来监测这些事件。降雨模型综合了多光谱卫星传感器的观测数据,可提供 5 千米(半小时)极高分辨率的精确降水信息,为有效监测洪水事件提供了绝佳机会。通过调查 2013 年凯达纳特、2014 年查谟和克什米尔以及 2015 年泰米尔纳德邦的洪水事件,测试了该模型的实用性。该模型还被用于研究 2019 年喀拉拉邦和阿萨姆邦最近发生的洪水事件。 孟买、帕尔格尔、塔内、雷加德、萨塔拉、桑利、浦那和科尔哈帕尔地区在 7 月的第一周、第三周和最后一周以及 9 月的第二周和最后一周多次降雨,导致这些地区发生严重洪灾。结果显示,在 7 月至 9 月期间的多次暴雨中,其中几个地区的累计降雨量超过了 2000 毫米。孟买、帕尔格尔、塔内和雷加德在 7 月至 9 月期间的累计降雨量超过 1700 毫米。桑加利地区在 2019 年 7 月期间的降雨量超过月平均降雨量约 200%。多次降雨造成的累计降雨量大,导致马哈拉施特拉邦多个地区发生严重洪灾。本研究报告的结果凸显了减轻和适应洪水灾害战略的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
RECENT ADVANCES IN SOCIAL WEATHER, COMMON ALERT PROTOCOL AND DISSEMINATION SERVICES THROUGH APIS IN INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 印度气象部门在社会气象、共同警报协议和通过应用程序提供传播服务方面的最新进展
IF 0.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.54302/mausam.v75i1.6146
S. Chug, S. Nath
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引用次数: 0
An analysis of fog events in respect of winter season 2021-2022 using model reanalysis & INSAT-3D/3DR satellite data 利用再分析模型和 INSAT-3D/3DR 卫星数据分析 2021-2022 年冬季的大雾事件
IF 0.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.54302/mausam.v75i1.5916
Nishtha Sehgal, Tanvi Malhan, R. K. Giri, Ramashray Yadav, Yogesh Kumar, Laxmi Pathak, आवद्कता हस।
The objective of the study was twofold (i) Review of INSAT-3D/3DR night time fog detection channel differencing (MIR- TIR1) scheme developed by Space Application Centre (SAC) Indian Space Research Centre (ISRO) thresholds  which were not uniform for winter season radiation fog and vary geographically over Indian domain & (ii) An analysis of Fog events of 2021-2022 winter season analysis using the anomalies (temperature, wind, moisture, inversion, geo-potential height etc) from NCEP reanalysis and ERA-5 data sets. This study is a way forward to look into the importance of recently introduced model reanalysis data sets to monitor and understand the recent changes of fog events behaviour. It is seen that the fog events winter season (2021-2022) was reduced appreciably and this change is really a concern but 2021-22 winter fog occurrences were very well captured in both models as well as INSAT-3D/3DR data analysis. The results brought out from the model as well as satellite data analysis were found to be very useful for forecasters and end users especially in monitoring and prediction of fog events.  However, to quantify the night time fog thresholds based on INSAT data for different regions of India and appreciable reduction of fog events in the recent past needs long term data sets study.
这项研究的目标有两个方面:(i)审查印度空间研究中心(ISRO)空间应用中心(SAC)制定的 INSAT-3D/3DR 夜间雾探测信道差分(MIR-TIR1)计划,该计划对冬季辐射雾的阈值并不统一,而且在印度域内存在地理差异;(ii)利用 NCEP 再分析和ERA-5 数据集的异常(温度、风、湿度、反转、地球电位高度等)分析 2021-2022 年冬季的雾事件。这项研究为研究近期引入的再分析模式数据集在监测和了解近期雾事件行为变化方面的重要性提供了一个思路。可以看出,冬季(2021-2022 年)的雾事件明显减少,这一变化确实令人担忧,但 2021-22 年冬季的雾事件在两种模式以及 INSAT-3D/3DR 数据分析中都得到了很好的捕捉。模型和卫星数据分析得出的结果对预报员和最终用户非常有用,特别是在监测和预测雾事件方面。 不过,要根据 INSAT 数据量化印度不同地区的夜间雾阈值,以及近期雾事件的显著减少,还需要进行长期数据集研究。
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引用次数: 0
Momentum budget analysis of maintenance of Arabian Sea tropical cyclone Ockhi 阿拉伯海热带气旋 "奥基 "的维持动量预算分析
IF 0.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.54302/mausam.v75i1.5374
J. P S
In this study an effort is done to explain the maintenance of the  Very Severe Cyclonic Storm(VSCS) Ockhi using the angular momentum(AM) budget technique . The  AM budget  equation  for a region bounded by ,  to   and  to   in  (x,y,p,t) co-ordinate system is used from an earlier study.  The different terms are explained with relative importance.  This technique is used to  the diagnosis of different small, medium and large weather systems by several authors.  The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm(VSCS) Ockhi –a rare situation in Arabian Sea – is studied  with a reanalyzed dataset   in a fine mesh width. The values of different terms in the AM budget equation are calculated for  pressure levels-1000,800,500,200,100hpa’s and for four day periods viz. 30 Nov ,01 Dec ,02 Dec  and 03 Dec 2017    .The AM budget was prepared for the eight  observation time periods of 00, 03,06,09,12,15,18,21 UTC  for each day.  The area selected is 5.04N - 19.2N, 60E- 77E where VSCS TC Ockhi formed.The sink and source terms are compared  and the results  are correlated with the help of charts .  The NCMRWF IMDAA data set is used and the results are depicted in charts and  results are compared  with the observed synoptic behavior of the   system . Keywords: -  Angular Momentum Budget,  Equation, Source/Sink terms,                            VSCS  Ockhi-Diagnosis
本研究利用角动量(AM)预算技术来解释特强气旋风暴(VSCS)Ockhi 的维持情况。角动量预算方程适用于以 (x,y,p,t) 坐标系中的 , to 和 to 为边界的区域。 对不同术语的相对重要性进行了解释。 多位学者将这一技术用于诊断不同的小型、中型和大型天气系统。 阿拉伯海罕见的非常严重的气旋风暴(VSCS)Ockhi 就是利用细网格宽度的重新分析数据集进行研究的。AM 预算方程中不同项的值是根据 1000、800、500、200、100 hpa 的压力水平和 2017 年 11 月 30 日、12 月 1 日、12 月 2 日和 12 月 3 日这四天的情况计算的。AM 预算是根据每天 00、03、06、09、12、15、18、21 UTC 这八个观测时段编制的。 所选区域为 5.04N - 19.2N,60E- 77E,VSCS TC Ockhi 在此形成。 使用了 NCMRWF IMDAA 数据集,将结果绘制成图表,并将结果与观测到的系统天气行为进行比较。 关键词- 角动量预算、方程、源/汇项、VSCS Ockhi-Diagnosis
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引用次数: 0
A satellite bioclimatology of Baluchistan in Southwestern Asia 西南亚俾路支斯坦的卫星生物气候学
IF 0.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.54302/mausam.v75i1.3573
Peyman Mahmoudi, S. A. Shirazi, Seyed Mahdi Amir Jahanshahi, F. Firoozi, N. Mazhar
.The present study aimed at investigating the relationship between two variables of temperature and precipitation with vegetation dynamics in one of the arid and semi-arid regions of the world, i.e. Baluchistan in Southwestern Asia, which is shared by the three countries of Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. In order to achieve the objectives, two different databases were used: 1. MODIS NDVI 16-day composite products (MOD13A3) of Terra satellite, with 1*1 km spatial resolution, which was obtained for a 17-year period (2000-2016) from the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data Gateway of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); 2. Gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data was obtained for the same 17-year period from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was also used to examine the relationship between vegetation dynamics and two climate variables of temperature and precipitation simultaneously as well as in three time lags i.e.; one month, two months and three months. The results of the analysis of a correlation between the mean temperature and monthly NDVI in different time lags indicated that in the humid and semi-humid regions in the northern half of Baluchistan, NDVI simultaneously reacted to temperature variations, while in the arid and semi-arid regions in the southern half of Baluchistan, NDVI had a one-month time lag with temperature. However, the results of the analysis of a correlation between precipitation and monthly NDVI in different time lags indicated that NDVI simultaneously reacted to precipitation variations, that is precipitation of each month had the greatest effect on the NDVI of the same month.
.本研究旨在调查世界上干旱和半干旱地区之一,即伊朗、巴基斯坦和阿富汗三国共有的西南亚俾路支斯坦地区的温度和降水量这两个变量与植被动态之间的关系。为了实现目标,使用了两个不同的数据库:1.从美国国家航空航天局(NASA)的地球观测系统(EOS)数据网关获得了 17 年(2000-2016 年)期间(1*1 公里)的 Terra 卫星 MODIS NDVI 16 天复合产品(MOD13A3);2. 从东英吉利大学气候研究室(CRU)获得了同样 17 年期间的网格化月度气温和降水数据。此外,还使用了皮尔逊积幂相关系数(Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient)来研究植被动态与气温和降水这两个气候变量之间的关系。平均气温与月净植被指数在不同滞后期之间的相关性分析结果表明,在俾路支斯坦北半部的湿润和半湿润地区,净植被指数同时对气温变化做出反应,而在俾路支斯坦南半部的干旱和半干旱地区,净植被指数与气温的时滞为一个月。然而,对不同滞后时间段的降水量与每月归一化差异植被指数之间相关性的分析结果表明,归一化差异植被指数同时对降水量变化做出反应,即每月降水量对同月归一化差异植被指数的影响最大。
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引用次数: 0
MAPPING OF DROUGHT RISK AREAS IN AGRICULTURAL LANDS IN THE CHICHAOUA BASIN - MOROCCO NORTH AFRICA-USING TEMPERATURE INDEX (TCI) 利用温度指数(TCI)绘制摩洛哥北非 Chichaoua 盆地农田干旱风险区域图
IF 0.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.54302/mausam.v75i1.5595
Fathallah Fatima Ezzahra, Algouti Ahmed, A. Abdellah
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引用次数: 0
HEAT WAVE ANALYSIS FOR THE REGION OF PUDUCHERRY AND KARAIKAL IN THE U.T. OF PUDUCHERRY 普都切里大学普都切里和卡拉卡尔地区的热浪分析
IF 0.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.54302/mausam.v75i1.299
Balaji Thirugnanasambandam, Kalamegam Kaliyaperumal, Sagaya Alfred Raymond
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引用次数: 0
Seasonal characterization of aerosols over high altitude location of southern India, Ooty, Tamilnadu 印度南部泰米尔纳德邦奥蒂高空气溶胶的季节特征
IF 0.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.54302/mausam.v75i1.5960
R. Jayabalakrishnan, G. Sivasankaran, M. Maheswari, R. Kumaraperumal, C. Poornachandra
Climate change has been worsened by aerosols which got a significant place in the scientific research to understand climate change dynamics. Hence, the optical properties of the aerosols play an important role in the earth’s energy radiation budget. The Aerosol Optical Depth was measured at high altitude region in Ooty from December 2020 to May 2021. The spectral, monthly and diurnal variation of AOD were assessed and showed their seasonal variability. The mean AOD value at 500 nm was higher during the Summer season (0.625±0.323) than in the Winter season (0.213±0.006). The Black Carbon (BC) was measured using an Aethalo meter from December 2020 to September 2021. The average season wise concentrations of BC were 0.680±0.206µg m-3, 1.128±0.393 µg m-3 and 0.189±0.06 µg m-3 for the Winter, Summer and Monsoon seasons, respectively. The sources of BC mass concentration were apportioned based on fossil fuel (BCff) and biomass burning (BCbb). The fossil fuel based contribution was higher than the biomass based contribution to the total BC concentration. The comparative study of BC concentration with the AOD, it was projected that the AOD had increased in line with surging BC concentration up to April, 2021. The ground-based daily AOD measurements were compared with the MODIS retrieved AOD. The MODIS retrieved AOD was positively correlated with the ground measured AOD during the Winter and Summer seasons. The HYSPLIT trajectory presented the pathways of the source from the long range regions. The Winter season trajectory was attributed to the North-easterly and easterly winds and the Summer season was attributed to the North-westerly and westerly winds that exhibited the long-range transport of aerosols from the neighbouring cities. The meteorological parameters significantly affected the loading of aerosols during all the seasons, denoting that they were supposed to the local prevailing meteorological conditions.
气溶胶加剧了气候变化,在了解气候变化动态的科学研究中占有重要地位。因此,气溶胶的光学特性在地球能量辐射预算中发挥着重要作用。2020 年 12 月至 2021 年 5 月期间,在奥蒂的高海拔地区测量了气溶胶光学深度。对 AOD 的光谱、月变化和日变化进行了评估,并显示出其季节性变化。夏季 500 nm 处的平均 AOD 值(0.625±0.323)高于冬季(0.213±0.006)。2020 年 12 月至 2021 年 9 月期间,使用 Aethalo 测量仪对黑碳(BC)进行了测量。冬季、夏季和季风季节的 BC 平均浓度分别为 0.680±0.206µg m-3、1.128±0.393 µg m-3 和 0.189±0.06 µg m-3。化石燃料(BCff)和生物质燃烧(BCbb)是 BC 质量浓度的来源。在 BC 总浓度中,化石燃料的贡献率高于生物质的贡献率。通过对 BC 浓度与 AOD 的比较研究,预计到 2021 年 4 月,AOD 与激增的 BC 浓度保持一致。对地基每日日照时数的测量值与 MODIS 的日照时数进行了比较。在冬季和夏季,中分辨率成像分 辨系统获取的 AOD 与地面测量的 AOD 呈正相关。HYSPLIT 轨迹显示了来自远距离区域的源路径。冬季的轨迹归因于东北风和东风,而夏季则归因于西北风和西风,这显示了气溶胶从邻近城市的长程飘移。气象参数对所有季节的气溶胶负荷都有重大影响,这表明气溶胶负荷与当地盛行的气象条件有关。
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引用次数: 0
The influence variability of weather condition on predicting rain events in surrounding Jakarta 天气条件的变化对预测雅加达周边地区降雨事件的影响
IF 0.6 4区 地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-31 DOI: 10.54302/mausam.v75i1.834
Giar No, Muna War, Ervan Ferdiansyah, Fendy Arifianto, A. Pratiwi, Silvia Yulianti
The metropolis Jakarta is a place where floods often occur which are detrimental to both property and life. Weather forecast information released by Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) has very important in anticipating this disaster. Hence, it is important to pay attention to the weather forecast accuracy. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of variations accuracy in rain events of the Jakarta area includes Central Jakarta, East Jakarta, West Jakarta, North Jakarta, South Jakarta, Bekasi, Tangerang, Depok, and Bogor as known Jabotabek. School of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics or STMKG Weather Care developed voluntary observations of weather conditions especially rain events. Respondents filled out the form whether there was rain in the location where they lived and would be evaluated using the dichotomous method. This study shows the accuracy of rain prediction in the Jabotabek area of 66.8%, with prediction failures generally is an overestimation. The highest number of correct predictions occurred when the location was not raining. Moreover, the best accuracy is in Bekasi City and South Jakarta and West Jakarta is the worst. The evaluation confirms that it is not easy to predict rain events in a detailed location and the prediction terms used.
雅加达是一个经常发生洪灾的大都市,洪灾对财产和生命都造成了损害。气象、气候和地球物理局(BMKG)发布的天气预报信息对预测这场灾难非常重要。因此,关注天气预报的准确性非常重要。本研究的目的是考察雅加达地区(包括雅加达中部、雅加达东部、雅加达西部、雅加达北部、雅加达南部、勿加西、丹吉尔港、德波克和茂物)降雨事件中准确度变化的影响。气象学、气候学和地球物理学学院(STMKG)的 "天气关怀"(Weather Care)计划对天气状况(尤其是降雨事件)进行自愿观察。受访者填写表格,说明其居住地是否下雨,并使用二分法进行评估。这项研究表明,贾博塔贝克地区的降雨预测准确率为 66.8%,预测失败一般是高估了降雨量。正确预测次数最多的地点是不下雨的地方。此外,准确率最高的是勿加泗市和雅加达南部,雅加达西部最差。评估结果证实,根据详细的地点和使用的预测术语来预测降雨事件并非易事。
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引用次数: 0
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MAUSAM
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