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The Simulation of US Consumer Credit Fluctuation Using Artificial Neural Networks 用人工神经网络模拟美国消费信贷波动
Pub Date : 2012-04-18 DOI: 10.5171/2012.525995
C. Ilie, M. Ilie, Ana-Maria Topalu, L. Melnic
The present paper shows the discussion and results of the research that simulated the fluctuation of the US Consumer Credit (CONS) using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The research had several objectives, like: building, training and using an ANN as a possible tool for decision making, through the simulation of the US Consumer Credit. The condition for a successful training of the ANN was established as a smaller difference than 1.5% between the real data and the simulated data. A feed forward artificial neural network and a back propagation algorithm were used for the training and preparation of future use of the ANN. For the training result, two testing sessions were used. For the use of ANN in CONS forecasting, the research was extended with the simulation of CONS trend using trained ANN and a new set of consecutive values for each of the input data. Also, the new simulations determined a hierarchy of the inputs that were considered for the simulations of the CONS. In the conclusion, the researchers consider the ANN training and testing a success due to the values obtained: a difference of [-0.69; 0.32] % between the real and simulated CONS values. The trend simulation also shows the training success with accuracy smaller than 1.5%. The authors consider that the research can be extended to other countries or by adding others indicators.
本文介绍了用人工神经网络(ANN)模拟美国消费信贷(CONS)波动的研究讨论和结果。该研究有几个目标,如:通过模拟美国消费者信贷,建立、训练和使用人工神经网络作为决策的可能工具。将人工神经网络训练成功的条件设定为真实数据与模拟数据之间的差异小于1.5%。采用前馈人工神经网络和反向传播算法进行训练,为将来使用人工神经网络做准备。对于训练结果,我们使用了两次测试。为了将神经网络应用于CONS预测,将研究扩展为使用训练好的神经网络和每个输入数据的一组新的连续值来模拟CONS趋势。此外,新的模拟确定了用于模拟CONS的输入的层次结构。在结论中,研究人员认为人工神经网络的训练和测试是成功的,因为获得的值:差异为[-0.69;0.32] %。趋势模拟也表明训练成功,准确率小于1.5%。作者认为该研究可以推广到其他国家或增加其他指标。
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引用次数: 0
Relation and Growth of Internet Penetration Rate with Human Development Level from 2000 to 2010 2000 - 2010年互联网普及率与人类发展水平的关系及增长
Pub Date : 2012-04-18 DOI: 10.5171/2012.778309
Ahmad R. Pratama, Moneer Alshaikh
This study examines the relation of Internet penetration rate with human development level over the last decade. The main purpose is to investigate the possible existence of a digital divide between developed and developing countries during the last 10 years. Furthermore, it also explores how the growth of the Internet penetration rate in developed countries is compared to that of developing countries. UNDP Human Development Index is used to measure human development level, while Internet penetration rate is represented by the number of Internet user per 100 inhabitants of a country. The result of this study supports the argument that a digital divide exists because of this disparity in Internet penetration rates.
本研究探讨近十年来互联网普及率与人类发展水平的关系。主要目的是调查在过去十年中发达国家和发展中国家之间可能存在的数字鸿沟。此外,本文还探讨了发达国家与发展中国家互联网普及率的增长情况。联合国开发计划署人类发展指数用来衡量人类发展水平,而互联网普及率则用一个国家每100名居民中互联网用户的数量来表示。这项研究的结果支持了数字鸿沟的存在,因为互联网普及率的差异。
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引用次数: 16
A Circular Causality Analysis on the Determinants of the Audit Fees within the NYSE-Quoted Companies 纽交所上市公司审计费用决定因素的循环因果分析
Pub Date : 2012-04-01 DOI: 10.5171/2012.896676
Ionela-Corina Chersan, I. Robu, Mihai Carp, M. Mironiuc
According to the International Standards on Auditing, audit fees are the amount that remunerates the financial auditor’s activity, the certification of financial statements. The Profession Code states that these fees should be calculated in an objective way and the auditor’s independence shouldn’t be influenced by them. This study aims to identify the determinants of the audit fees, by testing the existence of a circular causality in the connection between audit fees and the financial performance of a NYSE-quoted company. The analysis is based on a sample of the first 100 companies (NYSE quoted) of the Top 500 Fortune, except for the companies in the investment funds and insurances field. In the study there were tested and validated the following working hypothesis: “the level of the audit fees is mainly influenced by the company’s capacity to continue its activity”, “the prestige of the audited company contributes to the decrease of the audit fees” and “the reduced fees level, paid by the customer audited by one of the Big4 companies in this exercise, contributes to the future prestige increase”. For data analysis there were used linear regression analysis (simple and multiple) and the variance analysis (ANOVA). Research results indicate the existence of a circular causality, bidirectional, on the level of the relationship between audit fees and financial performance. For data processing, in the study there were used statistical software SPSS 19.0 and AMOS 16.0.
根据《国际审计准则》,审计费用是对财务审计师的活动,即对财务报表进行认证的报酬。《职业守则》规定,这些费用应以客观的方式计算,不应影响审计师的独立性。本研究旨在确定审计费用的决定因素,通过测试在审计费用和纽约证券交易所上市公司的财务业绩之间的连接存在循环因果关系。该分析是基于除投资基金和保险领域的公司外,财富500强前100家公司(纽约证券交易所上市)的样本。在研究中,对以下工作假设进行了测试和验证:“审计费用的水平主要受公司继续其活动的能力的影响”,“被审计公司的声誉有助于审计费用的减少”和“在此练习中由四大公司之一审计的客户支付的降低的费用水平有助于未来声望的增加”。数据分析采用线性回归分析(单一和多元)和方差分析(ANOVA)。研究结果表明,在审计收费与财务绩效的关系层面上,存在着一种循环的、双向的因果关系。在数据处理方面,本研究采用SPSS 19.0和AMOS 16.0统计软件。
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引用次数: 9
Empirical Study on the Efficiency of the Companies Financing Process through Statistical Analysis 基于统计分析的企业融资效率实证研究
Pub Date : 2012-04-01 DOI: 10.5171/2012.765236
Mihai Carp, M. Mironiuc, I. Robu, Ionela-Corina Chersan
The current economic context, characterized by strong slippages, at the real and financial flows, request, in order to maintain stability and favorable evolution of the enterprise, a fair and efficient substantiation of the decision process. Such need is found, especially, in the area of corporate finance. In this respect, managers must be given tools used in assessing the adequacy of existing financial structure construction and to indicate future directions of action regarding release of funds demand. This article addresses this area by focusing on two coordinates: the study of links that are established between the characteristics of entities (capital structure ratios, activity field) and the development of the dimension of corporate value, expressed by increase / decrease index of asset capitalization, obtaining in this way a profile of the enterprises related to the efficiency of the financing policy, and develop a mathematical model to classify firms in performance group, using the as the same efficiency criterion in choosing the financing sources. Data considered in the study are taken from financial statements of listed companies to Bucharest Stock Exchange, considering a sample of 80 units that constitute the working group. To achieve the research objectives were used as working methods: ratios technique, multiple correspondence factorial analysis, principal component analysis and discriminant analysis. Data processing was performed using the statistical software SPSS 19.00.
当前的经济背景,特点是强劲的下滑,在实际和资金流动,要求,为了保持稳定和有利的企业演变,一个公平和有效的决策过程的实质。这种需求尤其存在于公司融资领域。在这方面,必须向管理人员提供工具,用于评估现有财务结构建设的适当性,并指出关于释放资金需求的未来行动方向。本文通过关注两个坐标来解决这个问题:研究实体特征(资本结构比率、活动领域)与企业价值维度(以资产资本化增减指数表示)的发展之间建立的联系,从而获得与融资政策效率相关的企业概况,并建立一个数学模型将企业分类为绩效组,使用相同的效率标准来选择融资来源。研究中考虑的数据取自布加勒斯特证券交易所上市公司的财务报表,考虑到组成工作组的80个单位的样本。为达到研究目的,采用了比率分析法、多重对应析因分析法、主成分分析法和判别分析法。数据处理采用SPSS 19.00统计软件。
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引用次数: 3
Mobile Device Considerations for Supply Chain and ERP Related Systems 移动设备对供应链和ERP相关系统的考虑
Pub Date : 2012-03-20 DOI: 10.5171/2012.151480
Byron Clemens, Teuta Cata, Gary Hackbarth
The increased mobility of users and rapid enhancements to “hand held” technology suggest leveraging mobile technology to enhance timely transaction handling and data collection, as well as access robust tools for management decision making in supporting Supply Chain Management (SCM), Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) and other complimentary systems. Though technology options are prevalent, applications must be developed for fit and viability on mobile devices which do not deter them from needed system functionality. Not only must internal application requirements address the mobility needs of its users, but interaction with external entities (e.g. suppliers) must be considered, as well. This paper reviews the history of devices used for Supply Chain Management and ERP applications through transition to mobile devices, as well as suggesting considerations for mobility and reachability and other factors that influence the utilization of newer technologies.
随着用户移动性的增加和“手持”技术的迅速增强,我们建议利用移动技术来提高交易处理和数据收集的及时性,以及访问强大的管理决策工具,以支持供应链管理(SCM)、企业资源规划(ERP)和其他配套系统。虽然技术选择很普遍,但必须开发适合移动设备的应用程序和可行性,这不会妨碍它们使用所需的系统功能。不仅内部应用程序需求必须满足其用户的移动性需求,还必须考虑与外部实体(例如供应商)的交互。本文回顾了供应链管理和ERP应用程序从过渡到移动设备的历史,并提出了对移动性和可达性以及影响新技术利用的其他因素的考虑。
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引用次数: 16
Behavioral Intention towards the Use of 3G Technology 使用3G技术的行为意向
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.5171/2012.622123
Sona Mardikyan, Betül Beşiroğlu, Gözde Uzmaya
Nowadays, 3G technologies provide people with higher wireless bandwidth, audio and video services, as well as mobile internet access all in one mobile environment. The information technology industry needs to understand why people prefer this technology, which variables and opportunities convinced them to use it. The focus of this study is to examine the factors affecting 3G technology perception and adoption. In the theoretical framework of the study, Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) are used as guidelines. In order to analyze 3G users’ perception and behavioral intention, external variables (perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, price, variety of 3G services, service quality and social influence) and control variables (gender, age, education level, experience, occupation, payment type) are analyzed through a survey study. The results show that perceived usefulness, variety of 3G services, service quality and social influence are influencing factors towards the behavioral intention of 3G usage.
如今,3G技术为人们在一个移动环境中提供了更高的无线带宽、音频和视频服务以及移动互联网接入。信息技术行业需要了解人们为什么喜欢这项技术,哪些变量和机会说服他们使用它。本研究的重点是探讨影响3G技术认知和采用的因素。在本研究的理论框架中,以技术接受模型(TAM)和技术接受与使用统一理论(UTAUT)为指导。为了分析3G用户的感知和行为意向,通过调查研究分析外部变量(感知有用性、感知易用性、价格、3G服务种类、服务质量和社会影响力)和控制变量(性别、年龄、教育程度、经验、职业、支付类型)。结果表明,感知有用性、3G服务种类、服务质量和社会影响是影响3G使用行为意愿的因素。
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引用次数: 47
Organizations adoption of MyKad initiative 组织采用MyKad计划
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.5171/2012.542549
H. Neo, P. H. Yeow, U. Eze, H. Loo
Malaysia has invested multi-million ringgit on the Malaysia’s Multipurpose Identity Card (MyKad) initiative for the protection of citizens from terrorism as well as for effective and efficient government and private sector applications. If it is not used, the initiative is wasted. For the success of MyKad adoption, both individual and organizations need to accept this initiative. Prior studies have been conducted on individual acceptance (e.g. Yeow et al., 2007; Loo et al., 2011); however no study has been conducted on organization acceptance. This research investigates organizations (such as banks, insurance companies, unit trust agencies and hotels) acceptance of MyKad initiative. Organizations do not have MyKad; therefore, their MyKad acceptance (i.e., the dependent variable) can only be measured by their intention to use MyKad reader for identity verification of transactions such as opening a bank/unit trust account, making insurance claims and registering a hotel room. The independent variables were taken from UTAUT’s (Venkatesth, 2003) four constructs (i.e. performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence and facilitating conditions) and two other variables (i.e. anxiety and perceived credibility). In this preliminary study, fifty questionnaire samples were collected from two cities in Malaysia. The findings show that organizations did not have a high intention to use MyKad reader because of their lack of understanding about its benefits (performance expectancy), ease of use, social support and facilitating conditions. Recommendations were given to increase adoption.
马来西亚已经投资了数百万林吉特用于马来西亚的多功能身份证(MyKad)计划,以保护公民免受恐怖主义的侵害,以及有效和高效的政府和私营部门应用。如果不加以利用,主动性就被浪费了。为了成功地采用MyKad,个人和组织都需要接受这个计划。先前已有关于个体接受度的研究(例如Yeow et al., 2007;Loo et al., 2011);然而,目前还没有对组织接受度进行研究。本研究调查了接受MyKad倡议的组织(如银行、保险公司、单位信托机构和酒店)。组织没有MyKad;因此,他们的MyKad接受度(即因变量)只能通过他们使用MyKad阅读器进行交易身份验证的意图来衡量,例如开设银行/单位信托账户,进行保险索赔和登记酒店房间。自变量取自UTAUT (Venkatesth, 2003)的四个构念(即表现期望、努力期望、社会影响和促进条件)和另外两个变量(即焦虑和感知可信度)。在这项初步研究中,从马来西亚的两个城市收集了50份问卷样本。调查结果显示,由于对MyKad阅读器的好处(性能预期)、易用性、社会支持和便利条件缺乏了解,组织使用MyKad阅读器的意愿不高。提出了提高采用率的建议。
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引用次数: 4
Multiple regressions in analysing house price variations 房价变动分析中的多元回归
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.5171/2012.383101
A. Yusof, S. Ismail
An application of rigorous statistical analysis in aiding investment decision making gains momentum in the United States of America as well as the United Kingdom. Nonetheless in Malaysia the responses from the local academician are rather slow and the rate is even slower as far as the practitioners are concern. This paper illustrates how Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) and its extension, Hedonic Regression Analysis been used in explaining price variation for selected houses in Malaysia. Each attribute that theoretically identified as price determinant is priced and the perceived contribution of each is explicitly shown. The paper demonstrates how the statistical analysis is capable of analyzing property investment by considering multiple determinants. The consideration of various characteristics which is more rigorous enables better investment decision making.
在美国和英国,严格的统计分析在帮助投资决策方面的应用取得了势头。然而,在马来西亚,当地学者的反应相当缓慢,就从业者而言,反应速度甚至更慢。本文阐述了多元回归分析(MRA)及其扩展,享乐回归分析如何用于解释马来西亚选定房屋的价格变化。理论上确定为价格决定因素的每个属性都进行了定价,并明确显示了每个属性的感知贡献。本文论证了统计分析如何能够通过考虑多个决定因素来分析房地产投资。对各种特征的考虑更加严格,可以更好地进行投资决策。
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引用次数: 27
Internationalizing Higher Education: The Effect of Country-of-Origin on the Evaluation of Service Quality 高等教育国际化:原籍国对服务质量评价的影响
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.5171/2012.123629
J. Sze, Yin Ho, Yeoh Sok Foon
As the higher education industry in Asia is prospering, attracting students internationally is becoming more competitive for countries in the region, particularly in Malaysia. The establishment of foreign universities in Malaysia has contributed to healthy competition in the higher education sector as these foreign universities provide potential students with more choices for degrees according to the university country-of-origin (COO). Inevitably, service quality offered by a university is among the most important determinants on a student’s behavioral intention. Hence, this paper aims to explore the relationship between a university country-of-origin, university service quality and its effect on university students’ behavioral intention (word-of-mouth and eventually intention for further study). Data is analyzed using an independent sample t-test and bivariate analysis. Contrary to previous research, results show that there are no significant differences between service quality, word-of-mouth and intention for further study and the university COO. Justification and implications of the study are discussed.
随着亚洲高等教育产业的蓬勃发展,吸引国际学生对该地区的国家来说变得越来越有竞争力,尤其是在马来西亚。在马来西亚设立外国大学促进了高等教育部门的良性竞争,因为这些外国大学根据大学原籍国为潜在学生提供了更多的学位选择。不可避免地,大学提供的服务质量是学生行为意向的最重要决定因素之一。因此,本文旨在探讨大学原籍国、大学服务质量及其对大学生行为意向(口碑和最终进一步研究意向)的影响之间的关系。数据分析采用独立样本t检验和双变量分析。与以往的研究相反,结果显示服务质量、口碑和继续学习意愿与大学COO之间没有显著差异。讨论了研究的理由和意义。
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引用次数: 13
Internet Banking Security Guideline Model for Banking in Thailand 泰国银行业网上银行安全指引模式
Pub Date : 2011-07-01 DOI: 10.5171/2011.787725
M. Kasemsan, Nantana Hunngam
The purpose of this research is to study the Internet banking security guideline model for banking business in Thailand. At the present, the uses of the Internet have grown rapidly, but there are not many customers who use the Internet banking services because they do not trust the bank security systems. As a result, the study of the Internet banking security guideline model and tools development as well as information technology were conducted to ensure the security of the Internet banking services by using the concept of reliability, innovation adoption theory, the quality of the Internet connection and e-commerce law. The collected data were taken to form the Internet banking services security model by using innovation adoption theory, trust of the system, the quality of the Internet connection, e-commerce legal support, authentication theory, key locker security, and one time password (OTP). The results of the research showed that the customers paid attention to the security, risk awareness, ease of use, and quality of Internet connection, respectively. Furthermore, it can also be concluded that a comparative study between the Internet banking and mobile banking should be studied as well as the study of social factors, and security factors to ensure the security and in order to meet with the customers’ needs.
本研究的目的是研究泰国银行业务的网上银行安全指引模型。目前,互联网的使用迅速增长,但使用网上银行服务的客户并不多,因为他们不相信银行的安全系统。为此,本文运用可靠性概念、创新采用理论、互联网连接质量和电子商务规律等理论,对互联网银行安全指导模型和工具开发以及信息技术进行了研究,以确保互联网银行服务的安全。采用创新采用理论、系统信任理论、互联网连接质量理论、电子商务法律支持理论、身份验证理论、密钥柜安全性理论和一次性密码(OTP)理论,构建了网上银行服务安全模型。研究结果显示,客户对网络连接的安全性、风险意识、易用性和质量的关注程度分别较高。此外,还可以得出结论,需要对互联网银行和手机银行进行比较研究,并对社会因素和安全因素进行研究,以确保安全性,满足客户的需求。
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引用次数: 16
期刊
Communications of the IBIMA
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