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A Skeptic’s Guide to Modern Monetary Theory 怀疑论者的现代货币理论指南
Pub Date : 2020-01-10 DOI: 10.1257/PANDP.20201102
N. Mankiw
This essay discusses a new approach to macroeconomics called modern monetary theory (MMT). It identifies the key differences between MMT and the approach found in mainstream textbooks. It concludes that while MMT contains some kernels of truth, its most novel policy prescriptions do not follow cogently from its premises.
本文讨论了一种新的宏观经济学方法——现代货币理论(MMT)。它确定了MMT与主流教科书中发现的方法之间的关键区别。它的结论是,虽然MMT包含一些真理的核心,但其最新颖的政策处方并没有令人信服地遵循其前提。
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引用次数: 38
Who’s Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective 谁在为美国的关税买单?长远的眼光
Pub Date : 2020-01-03 DOI: 10.1257/PANDP.20201018
M. Amiti, S. Redding, David E. Weinstein
Using data from 2018, a number of studies have found that recent U.S tariffs have been passed on entirely to U.S. importers and consumers. These results are surprising given that trade theory has long stressed that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices. Using another year of data including significant escalations in the trade war, we find that U.S. tariffs continue to be almost entirely borne by U.S. firms and consumers. We show that the response of import values to the tariffs increases in absolute magnitude over time, consistent with the idea that it takes time for firms to reorganize supply chains. We find heterogeneity in the responses of some sectors, such as steel, where tariffs have caused foreign exporters to drop their prices substantially, enabling them to export relatively more than in sectors where tariff passthrough was complete.
根据2018年的数据,一些研究发现,美国最近的关税已经完全转嫁给了美国进口商和消费者。考虑到贸易理论长期以来一直强调,大国征收的关税应该会压低外国产品的价格,这些结果令人惊讶。使用另一年的数据,包括贸易战的重大升级,我们发现美国的关税几乎完全由美国公司和消费者承担。我们表明,进口价值对关税的反应绝对值随着时间的推移而增加,这与企业重组供应链需要时间的观点是一致的。我们发现一些行业的反应存在异质性,比如钢铁行业,关税导致外国出口商大幅降低价格,使他们的出口相对于关税传导完成的行业更多。
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引用次数: 64
Do Property Rights Alleviate the Problem of the Commons? Evidence from California Groundwater Rights 产权能缓解公地问题吗?来自加州地下水权利的证据
Pub Date : 2019-09-12 DOI: 10.3386/w26268
A. Ayres, Kyle C. Meng, A. Plantinga
Property rights are widely prescribed for addressing overextraction of common pool resources, yet causal evidence of their effectiveness remains elusive. We develop a model of dynamic groundwater extraction to demonstrate how a spatial regression discontinuity design exploiting a spatially-incomplete property rights regime recovers a lower bound on the value of property rights. We apply this estimator to a major aquifer in water-scarce southern California and find that the introduction of ground- water property rights generated substantial net benefits, as capitalized in land values. Heterogeneity analyses suggest gains arise in part from tradeability of these rights, which enables more efficient water use.
财产权被广泛用于解决公共池资源的过度开采问题,但其有效性的因果证据仍然难以捉摸。我们开发了一个动态地下水开采模型,以证明利用空间不完整产权制度的空间回归不连续设计如何恢复产权价值的下界。我们将这一估算方法应用于缺水的南加州的一个主要含水层,发现引入地下水产权产生了可观的净收益,如土地价值资本化。异质性分析表明,收益部分来自这些权利的可交易性,这使得更有效地利用水。
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引用次数: 9
Who Chooses Commitment? Evidence and Welfare Implications 谁选择承诺?证据及福利影响
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26161
M. Carrera, Heather Royer, Mark Stehr, Justin R. Sydnor, Dmitry Taubinsky
A large literature treats take-up of commitment contracts, in the form of choice-set restrictions or penalties, as a smoking gun for time-inconsistency or self-control problems (for short, “present focus”). This paper develops techniques for inspecting this assumption, presents new field-experimental results that challenge it, and provides an alternative approach to measuring present focus. Theoretically, we show that in a standard model of quasi-hyperbolic discounting, demand for commitment is unlikely when there is some uncertainty about the future. In a field experiment with 1292 members of a fitness facility, we test for the presence of imperfect perception of contract value and experimenter demand effects in commitment contract take-up by offering contracts both for going to the gym more and for going to the gym less. We find that there is significant take-up of both types of contracts, and that individuals who take up contracts to go to the gym more are the most likely to take up contracts to go the gym less. These starkly conflicting choices are inconsistent with all standard models of present focus, and suggest that offers of commitment contracts may not be well-targeted policy tools. However, we show that a combination of belief forecasts and elicitations of willingness-to-pay for piece-rate incentives provides more robust identification of present focus and people’s awareness of it. We apply the methodology to our experimental results to obtain estimates of the partially sophisticated quasi-hyperbolic discounting model.
大量文献以选择限制或惩罚的形式,将履行承诺合同视为时间不一致或自我控制问题(简称“当下焦点”)的确凿证据。本文发展了检验这一假设的技术,提出了挑战它的新的现场实验结果,并提供了一种测量当前焦点的替代方法。从理论上讲,我们证明了在准双曲折现的标准模型中,当未来存在一些不确定性时,承诺的需求是不可能的。通过对1292名健身机构成员的实地实验,我们通过提供多去健身房和少去健身房的合同,来检验合同价值不完全感知的存在和实验者需求对承诺合同承担的影响。我们发现,这两种契约的接受程度都很高,而且签订契约去健身房的人最有可能签订契约去健身房的次数更少。这些明显相互冲突的选择与当前焦点的所有标准模型不一致,并表明提供承诺合同可能不是目标明确的政策工具。然而,我们表明,信念预测和对计件工资激励的支付意愿的激发相结合,提供了对当前焦点和人们对其意识的更有力的识别。我们将该方法应用于我们的实验结果,以获得部分复杂的准双曲折现模型的估计。
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引用次数: 20
The Effect of E-Cigarette Taxes on Pre-pregnancy and Prenatal Smoking 电子烟税对孕前和产前吸烟的影响
Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26126
Rahi Abouk, Scott Adams, Bo Feng, J. Maclean, M. Pesko
We use the universe of birth records in the United States from 2013 to 2017 to examine the effect of e-cigarette taxes on pre-pregnancy smoking, prenatal smoking, and birth outcomes (birth weight, gestational length, and Apgar 5 score). We apply a differences-in-differences model to study these questions. We have two principle findings. First, e-cigarette tax adoption increases pre-pregnancy and prenatal smoking, implying that e-cigarettes and traditional cigarettes are substitutes among pregnant women. Second, in line with clinical literature suggesting that both e-cigarettes and traditional cigarettes are harmful to developing fetuses, birth outcomes are largely unchanged following adoption of an e-cigarette tax. In sum, our results suggest that e-cigarettes reduce prenatal smoking, but have no observable benefit towards the goal of promoting fetal development.
我们使用2013年至2017年美国的出生记录来研究电子烟税对孕前吸烟、产前吸烟和出生结果(出生体重、妊娠长度和阿普加5分)的影响。我们采用差异中的差异模型来研究这些问题。我们有两个主要发现。首先,电子烟税的征收增加了孕前和产前吸烟,这意味着电子烟和传统香烟在孕妇中是替代品。其次,临床文献表明,电子烟和传统香烟都对发育中的胎儿有害,与此一致的是,在征收电子烟税后,出生结果基本没有变化。总之,我们的研究结果表明,电子烟减少了产前吸烟,但对促进胎儿发育的目标没有明显的好处。
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引用次数: 15
Do Local Governments Represent Voter Preferences? Evidence from Hospital Financing under the Affordable Care Act 地方政府代表选民的偏好吗?来自《平价医疗法案》下医院融资的证据
Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26094
Victoria E Perez, J. Ross, K. Simon
A mainstream motivation for decentralized government is to enable public service investments to better align with political preferences that may differ by geographical region. This paper examines how political preferences determine local government provision of hospital services. We find that local governments in areas more supportive of public insurance expansion responded to such state action by increasing expenditures on hospitals, whereas those in areas that voted against such expansions used the savings to reduce property taxes. This finding suggests that local government financial responses indeed align with political preferences.
分权政府的一个主流动机是使公共服务投资能够更好地与可能因地理区域而异的政治偏好保持一致。本文考察了政治偏好如何决定地方政府提供医院服务。我们发现,在更支持公共保险扩张的地区,地方政府通过增加对医院的支出来应对国家的这种行动,而在投票反对这种扩张的地区,地方政府则利用节省下来的资金来减少财产税。这一发现表明,地方政府的财政反应确实与政治偏好一致。
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引用次数: 3
Capital in the Nineteenth Century 19世纪的《资本论
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226633251.001.0001
R. Gallman, P. Rhode
When we think about history, we often think about people, events, ideas, and revolutions, but what about the numbers? What do the data tell us about what was, what is, and how things changed over time? Economist Robert E. Gallman (1926–98) gathered extensive data on US capital stock and created a legacy that has, until now, been difficult for researchers to access and appraise in its entirety. Gallman measured American capital stock from a range of perspectives, viewing it as the accumulation of income saved and invested, and as an input into the production process. He used the level and change in the capital stock as proxy measures for long-run economic performance. Analyzing data in this way from the end of the US colonial period to the turn of the twentieth century, Gallman placed our knowledge of the long nineteenth century—the period during which the United States began to experience per capita income growth and became a global economic leader—on a strong empirical foundation. Gallman’s research was painstaking and his analysis meticulous, but he did not publish the material backing to his findings in his lifetime. Here Paul W. Rhode completes this project, giving permanence to a great economist’s insights and craftsmanship. Gallman’s data speak to the role of capital in the economy, which lies at the heart of many of the most pressing issues today.
当我们想到历史时,我们通常会想到人物、事件、思想和革命,但是数字呢?数据告诉我们什么是过去,什么是现在,以及随着时间的推移,事情是如何变化的?经济学家罗伯特·e·加尔曼(Robert E. Gallman, 1926 - 1998)收集了大量关于美国资本存量的数据,并创造了一项遗产,直到现在,研究人员还难以全面地获取和评估这些数据。Gallman从多个角度衡量了美国的资本存量,将其视为储蓄和投资收入的积累,以及生产过程的投入。他用资本存量的水平和变化作为衡量长期经济表现的替代指标。Gallman以这种方式分析了从美国殖民时期结束到20世纪之交的数据,将我们对漫长的19世纪(美国开始经历人均收入增长并成为全球经济领导者的时期)的认识置于强大的实证基础之上。加尔曼的研究是艰苦的,他的分析是细致的,但他在有生之年没有发表支持他的发现的材料。在这里,保罗·w·罗德完成了这个项目,给了一个伟大的经济学家的洞察力和手艺永久。Gallman的数据说明了资本在经济中的作用,这是当今许多最紧迫问题的核心。
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引用次数: 14
Does School Spending Matter? The New Literature on an Old Question 学校开支重要吗?一个老问题的新文学
Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25368
Kirabo Jackson
Social scientists have long sought to examine the causal impact of school spending on child outcomes. For a long time, the literature on this topic was largely descriptive so that it had been difficult to draw strong causal claims. However, there have been several recent studies in this space that employ larger data-sets and use quasi-experimental methods that allow for much more credible causal claims. Focusing on studies of students in the United States, this paper briefly discusses the older literature and highlights some of its limitations. It then describes a recent quasi-experimental literature on the impact of school spending on child outcomes, highlights some key papers, and presents a summary of the recent findings. Policy implications and areas for future research are discussed.
长期以来,社会科学家一直试图研究学校支出对儿童学业成绩的因果影响。长期以来,关于这一主题的文献大多是描述性的,因此很难得出强有力的因果关系。然而,最近在这一领域有几项研究采用了更大的数据集,并使用准实验方法,从而得出更可信的因果关系主张。本文以美国学生为研究对象,简要讨论了旧文献,并强调了其局限性。然后,它描述了最近关于学校支出对儿童成绩影响的准实验文献,重点介绍了一些关键论文,并对最近的发现进行了总结。讨论了政策影响和未来研究的领域。
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引用次数: 108
Behavior within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines 临床试验中的行为及其对乳腺x线照相术指南的影响
Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25049
Amanda E. Kowalski
I unite the economics and medical literatures by examining behavior within a clinical trial to inform treatment guidelines. I use data from the Canadian National Breast Screening Study, an influential clinical trial on mammography. During the active study period of the trial, a substantial fraction of women in the control group received mammograms, and some women in the intervention group did not. Using this mammography behavior, random assignment within the trial, and a standard model from the economics literature, I divide participants into three groups that differ in how likely they are to receive mammograms. Making comparisons across these groups, I find two important relationships. First, I find heterogeneous selection into mammography: women more likely to receive mammograms are healthier. I find this relationship using a marginal treatment effect model that assumes no more than the local average treatment effect assumptions. Second, I find treatment effect heterogeneity along the margin of selection into mammography: women more likely to receive mammograms are more likely to experience harm from them. I find this relationship using an ancillary assumption that builds on the first empirical relationship. I find additional empirical support for the ancillary assumption using baseline covariates. My findings contribute to the literature concerned about harms from mammography by demonstrating variation across the margin of selection into mammography. This variation is problematic for current mammography guidelines for women in their 40s because it implies that they unintentionally encourage mammography for healthier women who are more likely to experience harm from them.
我通过在临床试验中检查行为来结合经济学和医学文献,为治疗指南提供信息。我使用的数据来自加拿大国家乳房筛查研究,这是一项有影响力的乳房x光检查临床试验。在试验的积极研究期间,对照组中有相当一部分女性接受了乳房x光检查,而干预组中的一些女性没有接受。使用这种乳房x光检查行为,试验中的随机分配,以及经济学文献中的标准模型,我将参与者分为三组,他们接受乳房x光检查的可能性不同。通过对这些群体的比较,我发现了两个重要的关系。首先,我发现乳房x光检查的异质性选择:更有可能接受乳房x光检查的女性更健康。我使用边际治疗效果模型发现了这种关系,该模型假设不超过局部平均治疗效果假设。其次,我发现在选择乳房x光检查的边缘,治疗效果存在异质性:接受乳房x光检查的女性更有可能受到伤害。我使用建立在第一种经验关系基础上的辅助假设来发现这种关系。我发现额外的经验支持辅助假设使用基线协变量。我的发现通过证明乳房x光检查的选择范围的差异,为关注乳房x光检查危害的文献做出了贡献。对于目前针对40多岁女性的乳房x光检查指南来说,这种差异是有问题的,因为这意味着它们无意中鼓励更健康的女性接受乳房x光检查,而这些女性更有可能受到伤害。
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引用次数: 9
Mirrlees meets Diamond-Mirrlees: simplifying nonlinear income taxation Mirrlees满足Diamond-Mirrlees:简化非线性所得税
Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/W22076
Florian Scheuer, I. Werning
We show that the Diamond and Mirrlees (1971) linear tax model contains the Mirrlees (1971) nonlinear tax model as a special case. In this sense, the Mirrlees model is an application of Diamond-Mirrlees. We also provide a simple derivation of the Mirrleesian optimal income tax formula from the Diamond-Mirrlees commodity tax formula. In the Mirrlees model, the relevant compensated cross-price elasticities are zero, providing a situation where an inverse elasticity rule holds. We provide four extensions that illustrate the power and ease of our approach, based on Diamond-Mirrlees, to study nonlinear taxation. First, we consider annual taxation in a lifecycle context. Second, we include human capital investments. Third, we incorporate more general forms of heterogeneity into the basic Mirrlees model. Fourth, we consider an extensive margin labor force participation decision, alongside the intensive margin choice. In all these cases, the relevant optimality condition is easily obtained as a direct application of the general Diamond-Mirrlees linear tax formula.
我们证明Diamond和Mirrlees(1971)线性税收模型包含了作为特例的Mirrlees(1971)非线性税收模型。从这个意义上说,Mirrlees模型是Diamond-Mirrlees模型的一个应用。我们还提供了从Diamond-Mirrlees商品税公式推导出的mirrlees最优所得税公式的简单推导。在Mirrlees模型中,相关的补偿交叉价格弹性为零,提供了逆弹性规则成立的情况。我们提供了四个扩展,说明了我们基于Diamond-Mirrlees研究非线性税收的方法的力量和易用性。首先,我们考虑生命周期背景下的年度税收。其次,我们把人力资本投资包括在内。第三,我们将更一般形式的异质性纳入基本的Mirrlees模型。第四,我们考虑了广泛边际劳动力参与决策,以及密集边际选择。在所有这些情况下,直接应用一般Diamond-Mirrlees线性税收公式,很容易获得相关的最优性条件。
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引用次数: 12
期刊
National Bureau of Economic Research
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