Andrew T. Levin, W. Hanage, Nana Owusu-Boaitey, Kensington B. Cochran, Seamus P. Walsh, G. Meyerowitz-katz
This paper assesses the age specificity of the infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19. Our benchmark meta-regression synthesizes the age-specific IFRs from six recent large-scale seroprevalence studies conducted in Belgium, Geneva, Indiana, New York, Spain, and Sweden. The estimated IFR is close to zero for children and younger adults but rises exponentially with age, reaching about 0.3 percent for ages 50-59, 1.3 percent for ages 60-69, 4.6 percent for ages 70-79, and 25 percent for ages 80 and above. We compare those predictions to the age-specific IFRs implied by recent seroprevalence estimates for nine other U.S. locations, three smale-scale studies, and three countries (Iceland, New Zealand, and Republic of Korea) that have engaged in comprehensive tracking and tracing of COVID-19 infections. We also review seroprevalence studies of 32 other locations whose design was not well-suited for estimating age-specific IFRs. Our findings indicate that COVID-19 is not just dangerous for the elderly and infirm but also for healthy middle-aged adults, for whom the fatality rate is more than 50 times greater than the risk of dying in an automobile accident. Consequently, the overall IFR for a given location is intrinsically linked to the age-specific pattern of infections. In a scenario where the U.S. infection rate reaches 20 percent, our analysis indicates that protecting vulnerable age groups could prevent more than 200,000 deaths.
{"title":"Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, & Public Policy Implications","authors":"Andrew T. Levin, W. Hanage, Nana Owusu-Boaitey, Kensington B. Cochran, Seamus P. Walsh, G. Meyerowitz-katz","doi":"10.3386/w27597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27597","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses the age specificity of the infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19. Our benchmark meta-regression synthesizes the age-specific IFRs from six recent large-scale seroprevalence studies conducted in Belgium, Geneva, Indiana, New York, Spain, and Sweden. The estimated IFR is close to zero for children and younger adults but rises exponentially with age, reaching about 0.3 percent for ages 50-59, 1.3 percent for ages 60-69, 4.6 percent for ages 70-79, and 25 percent for ages 80 and above. We compare those predictions to the age-specific IFRs implied by recent seroprevalence estimates for nine other U.S. locations, three smale-scale studies, and three countries (Iceland, New Zealand, and Republic of Korea) that have engaged in comprehensive tracking and tracing of COVID-19 infections. We also review seroprevalence studies of 32 other locations whose design was not well-suited for estimating age-specific IFRs. Our findings indicate that COVID-19 is not just dangerous for the elderly and infirm but also for healthy middle-aged adults, for whom the fatality rate is more than 50 times greater than the risk of dying in an automobile accident. Consequently, the overall IFR for a given location is intrinsically linked to the age-specific pattern of infections. In a scenario where the U.S. infection rate reaches 20 percent, our analysis indicates that protecting vulnerable age groups could prevent more than 200,000 deaths.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75186334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Randomized controlled trials in lower-income countries have demonstrated ways to increase learning, in specific settings. This study uses a large-scale, nationwide RCT in Ghana to show the external validity of four school-based interventions inspired by other RCTs. Even though the government implemented the programs within existing systems, student learning increased across all four models, more so for female than male students, and many gains persisted one year after the program ended. Three of the four interventions had a similar cost effectiveness. The intervention that directly targeted classroom teachers increased the likelihood that teachers were engaged with students.
{"title":"Experimental Evidence on Alternative Policies to Increase Learning at Scale","authors":"Annie Duflo, Jessica Kiessel, Adrienne M. Lucas","doi":"10.3386/w27298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27298","url":null,"abstract":"Randomized controlled trials in lower-income countries have demonstrated ways to increase learning, in specific settings. This study uses a large-scale, nationwide RCT in Ghana to show the external validity of four school-based interventions inspired by other RCTs. Even though the government implemented the programs within existing systems, student learning increased across all four models, more so for female than male students, and many gains persisted one year after the program ended. Three of the four interventions had a similar cost effectiveness. The intervention that directly targeted classroom teachers increased the likelihood that teachers were engaged with students.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79871292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The true net environmental benefit of an electric vehicle (EV) is measured relative to the vehicle that an EV buyer would have bought and driven had they not opted for an EV. This “counterfactual” vehicle cannot be observed, but its fuel economy can be estimated. We use quasi-experimental variation in a generous California EV subsidy program to show that buyers of EVs would have, on average, purchased relative fuel-efficient gasoline-powered cars had they not gone electric. The true incremental pollution abatement arising from the EV is thus substantially smaller when compared to this appropriate reference vehicle, as opposed to, say, the average new passenger car.
{"title":"Measuring the Environmental Benefits of Electric Vehicles (Relative to the Car that Wasn’t Bought)","authors":"E. Muehlegger, D. Rapson","doi":"10.3386/w27197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27197","url":null,"abstract":"The true net environmental benefit of an electric vehicle (EV) is measured relative to the vehicle that an EV buyer would have bought and driven had they not opted for an EV. This “counterfactual” vehicle cannot be observed, but its fuel economy can be estimated. We use quasi-experimental variation in a generous California EV subsidy program to show that buyers of EVs would have, on average, purchased relative fuel-efficient gasoline-powered cars had they not gone electric. The true incremental pollution abatement arising from the EV is thus substantially smaller when compared to this appropriate reference vehicle, as opposed to, say, the average new passenger car.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74455078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Patrick Augustin, Mikhail Chernov, L. Schmid, Dongho Song
We revisit the recent literature on persistent deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) by showing theoretically that CIP violations imply arbitrage opportunities only if uncollateralized interbank lending rates are riskless. In the absence of observable riskless discount rates, we extract them empirically using a simple no-arbitrage framework. They deliver novel quantitative benchmarks for foreign exchange contracts that match observed forward currency premiums and cross-currency basis swap rates well. The no-arbitrage benchmarks account for about two thirds of the alleged CIP deviations, while the residual pricing errors line up with measures of intermediary constraints and the expensiveness of the U.S. dollar.
{"title":"A No-Arbitrage Perspective on Global Arbitrage Opportunities","authors":"Patrick Augustin, Mikhail Chernov, L. Schmid, Dongho Song","doi":"10.3386/w27231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27231","url":null,"abstract":"We revisit the recent literature on persistent deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) by showing theoretically that CIP violations imply arbitrage opportunities only if uncollateralized interbank lending rates are riskless. In the absence of observable riskless discount rates, we extract them empirically using a simple no-arbitrage framework. They deliver novel quantitative benchmarks for foreign exchange contracts that match observed forward currency premiums and cross-currency basis swap rates well. The no-arbitrage benchmarks account for about two thirds of the alleged CIP deviations, while the residual pricing errors line up with measures of intermediary constraints and the expensiveness of the U.S. dollar.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78411808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
China-born scientists and engineers who conduct their research outside China, the diaspora researchers of our title, contributed to global science through the exceptional quantity and quality of their scientific work and through distinctive connections to China-based researchers and research. Analysis of the Scopus database of English language scientific journal articles shows that Chinese diaspora research publications are a substantial and growing proportion of global scientific publications, receive an above average number of citations per article, and are published at above average rates in high Scopus CiteScore journals. In addition, diaspora researchers helped China advance to the forefront of science through collaboration on papers with China-based researchers and through the citation network linking China-based research to research outside the country.
{"title":"The Contribution of Chinese Diaspora Researchers to Global Science and China's Catching Up in Scientific Research","authors":"Qingnan Xie, Richard B. Freeman","doi":"10.3386/w27169","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27169","url":null,"abstract":"China-born scientists and engineers who conduct their research outside China, the diaspora researchers of our title, contributed to global science through the exceptional quantity and quality of their scientific work and through distinctive connections to China-based researchers and research. Analysis of the Scopus database of English language scientific journal articles shows that Chinese diaspora research publications are a substantial and growing proportion of global scientific publications, receive an above average number of citations per article, and are published at above average rates in high Scopus CiteScore journals. In addition, diaspora researchers helped China advance to the forefront of science through collaboration on papers with China-based researchers and through the citation network linking China-based research to research outside the country.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90221750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the effect of a large negative agricultural shock, the boll weevil, on black-white inequality in the first half of the twentieth century. To do this we use complete count census data to generate a linked sample of fathers and their sons. We find that the boll weevil induced enormous labor market and social disruption as more than half of black and white fathers moved to other counties following the arrival of the weevil. The shock impacted black and white sons differently. We compare sons whose fathers initially resided in the same county and find that white sons born after the boll weevil had similar wages and schooling outcomes to white sons born prior to its arrival. In contrast, black sons born after the boll weevil had significantly higher wages and years of schooling, narrowing the black-white wage and schooling gaps. This decrease appears to have been driven by relative improvements in early life conditions and access to schooling both for sons of black fathers that migrated out of the South and sons of black fathers that stayed in the South.
{"title":"The Boll Weevil’s Impact on Racial Income Gaps in the Early Twentieth Century","authors":"K. Clay, Ethan Schmick, Werner Troesken","doi":"10.3386/w27101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27101","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effect of a large negative agricultural shock, the boll weevil, on black-white inequality in the first half of the twentieth century. To do this we use complete count census data to generate a linked sample of fathers and their sons. We find that the boll weevil induced enormous labor market and social disruption as more than half of black and white fathers moved to other counties following the arrival of the weevil. The shock impacted black and white sons differently. We compare sons whose fathers initially resided in the same county and find that white sons born after the boll weevil had similar wages and schooling outcomes to white sons born prior to its arrival. In contrast, black sons born after the boll weevil had significantly higher wages and years of schooling, narrowing the black-white wage and schooling gaps. This decrease appears to have been driven by relative improvements in early life conditions and access to schooling both for sons of black fathers that migrated out of the South and sons of black fathers that stayed in the South.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84746280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we: (i) provide a model of the endogenous risk intolerance and severe aggregate demand contractions following a large real (non-financial) shock; and (ii) demonstrate the effectiveness of Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAPs) in addressing these contractions. The key mechanism stems from heterogeneous risk tolerance: as a recessionary shock hits the economy and brings down asset prices, risk-tolerant agents' wealth share declines and their leverage rises endogenously. This reduces the market's risk tolerance and generates downward pressure on asset prices and aggregate demand. When monetary policy is unconstrained, it can offset the decline in risk tolerance with an interest rate cut that boosts the market's Sharpe ratio. However, if the interest rate policy is constrained, new contractionary feedbacks arise: recessionary shocks lead to further asset price and output drops, which feed the risk-off episode and trigger a downward loop. In this context, LSAPs improve asset prices and aggregate demand by transferring risk to the government's balance sheet, which reduces the market's required Sharpe ratio. Optimal LSAPs are larger when the (consolidated) government has greater future fiscal capacity and the downward spiral is more severe. In an extension, we show how corporate debt overhang problems strengthen our mechanisms. The Covid-19 shock and the large response by all the major central banks provide a vivid illustration of the environment we seek to capture.
{"title":"Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a \"Covid-19\" Shock: A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs","authors":"Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek","doi":"10.3386/W27044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W27044","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we: (i) provide a model of the endogenous risk intolerance and severe aggregate demand contractions following a large real (non-financial) shock; and (ii) demonstrate the effectiveness of Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAPs) in addressing these contractions. The key mechanism stems from heterogeneous risk tolerance: as a recessionary shock hits the economy and brings down asset prices, risk-tolerant agents' wealth share declines and their leverage rises endogenously. This reduces the market's risk tolerance and generates downward pressure on asset prices and aggregate demand. When monetary policy is unconstrained, it can offset the decline in risk tolerance with an interest rate cut that boosts the market's Sharpe ratio. However, if the interest rate policy is constrained, new contractionary feedbacks arise: recessionary shocks lead to further asset price and output drops, which feed the risk-off episode and trigger a downward loop. In this context, LSAPs improve asset prices and aggregate demand by transferring risk to the government's balance sheet, which reduces the market's required Sharpe ratio. Optimal LSAPs are larger when the (consolidated) government has greater future fiscal capacity and the downward spiral is more severe. In an extension, we show how corporate debt overhang problems strengthen our mechanisms. The Covid-19 shock and the large response by all the major central banks provide a vivid illustration of the environment we seek to capture.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81864554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Atkin, Benjamin Faber, Thibault Fally, Marco Gonzalez-Navarro
Measuring changes in welfare, and particularly the price index, is challenging in the absence of well-measured prices covering the entire consumption basket. We propose and implement a new approach to estimate changes in income-group specific price indices and welfare using rich, but widely available, expenditure survey microdata. We build on existing work that uses Engel curves and expenditures on income-elastic goods to infer real incomes. While based on non-homothetic preferences, the price indices this approach recovers are homothetic and hence are neither theory consistent nor suitable for distributional analysis. We show that we can recover income-specific price index and welfare changes from horizontal shifts in Engel curves if preferences are quasi-separable and we focus on "relative" Engel curves. Our approach is flexible enough to allow for the non-linear Engel curves we document in the data, and for non-parametric estimation at each point of the income distribution. We implement this approach to estimate inflation and welfare in rural India between 1987/1988 and 1999/2000, and to revisit the impacts of India's trade reforms. Our estimates reveal that lower inflation rates for the rich erased the real income convergence documented by the existing literature that calculates inflation using only well-measured prices.
{"title":"Measuring Welfare and Inequality with Incomplete Price Information","authors":"D. Atkin, Benjamin Faber, Thibault Fally, Marco Gonzalez-Navarro","doi":"10.3386/w26890","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26890","url":null,"abstract":"Measuring changes in welfare, and particularly the price index, is challenging in the absence of well-measured prices covering the entire consumption basket. We propose and implement a new approach to estimate changes in income-group specific price indices and welfare using rich, but widely available, expenditure survey microdata. We build on existing work that uses Engel curves and expenditures on income-elastic goods to infer real incomes. While based on non-homothetic preferences, the price indices this approach recovers are homothetic and hence are neither theory consistent nor suitable for distributional analysis. We show that we can recover income-specific price index and welfare changes from horizontal shifts in Engel curves if preferences are quasi-separable and we focus on \"relative\" Engel curves. Our approach is flexible enough to allow for the non-linear Engel curves we document in the data, and for non-parametric estimation at each point of the income distribution. We implement this approach to estimate inflation and welfare in rural India between 1987/1988 and 1999/2000, and to revisit the impacts of India's trade reforms. Our estimates reveal that lower inflation rates for the rich erased the real income convergence documented by the existing literature that calculates inflation using only well-measured prices.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80934390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Arendt, Iben Bolvig, M. Foged, Linea Hasager, G. Peri
Social and economic integration of refugees are key to their personal fulfillment and to producing positive effects in the host country. We evaluate the impact of a reform that expanded and improved early language classes to refugees in Denmark while also temporarily lowering welfare benefits for a subgroup of them. The policy change applied to those who obtained refugee status in Denmark on or after January 1, 1999. Using a regression discontinuity design around the cutoff date we find that employment and earnings gradually diverged for the treated group after completion of the language program. The effect was significant and resulted in four percentage points permanently higher employment and almost USD 2,510 in extra yearly earnings over eighteen years. We do not find temporary or permanent labor market effects of cutting welfare benefits, but we find evidence of temporarily higher property crime when refugees received lower benefits. We also find that children of refugees who received enhanced language classes were more likely to complete lower secondary school and less likely to commit crime.
{"title":"Language Training and Refugees' Integration","authors":"J. Arendt, Iben Bolvig, M. Foged, Linea Hasager, G. Peri","doi":"10.3386/w26834","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26834","url":null,"abstract":"Social and economic integration of refugees are key to their personal fulfillment and to producing positive effects in the host country. We evaluate the impact of a reform that expanded and improved early language classes to refugees in Denmark while also temporarily lowering welfare benefits for a subgroup of them. The policy change applied to those who obtained refugee status in Denmark on or after January 1, 1999. Using a regression discontinuity design around the cutoff date we find that employment and earnings gradually diverged for the treated group after completion of the language program. The effect was significant and resulted in four percentage points permanently higher employment and almost USD 2,510 in extra yearly earnings over eighteen years. We do not find temporary or permanent labor market effects of cutting welfare benefits, but we find evidence of temporarily higher property crime when refugees received lower benefits. We also find that children of refugees who received enhanced language classes were more likely to complete lower secondary school and less likely to commit crime.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74635770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Murillo Campello, Gustavo S. Cortés, Fabrício d'Almeida, Gaurav Kankanhalli
We show that the 2016 Brexit Referendum led American corporations to cut jobs and investment within US borders. Using establishment-level data, we document that these effects were modulated by the degree of reversibility of capital and labor. American job losses were particularly pronounced in industries with less skilled and more unionized workers. UK-exposed firms with less redeployable capital and high input-offshoring dependence cut investment the most. Data on the near-universe of US establishments also point to measurable, negative effects on establishment turnover (openings and closings). Our results demonstrate how foreign-born political uncertainty is transmitted across international borders, shaping domestic capital formation and labor allocation.
{"title":"Global Effects of the Brexit Referendum: Evidence from US Corporations","authors":"Murillo Campello, Gustavo S. Cortés, Fabrício d'Almeida, Gaurav Kankanhalli","doi":"10.3386/w26714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26714","url":null,"abstract":"We show that the 2016 Brexit Referendum led American corporations to cut jobs and investment within US borders. Using establishment-level data, we document that these effects were modulated by the degree of reversibility of capital and labor. American job losses were particularly pronounced in industries with less skilled and more unionized workers. UK-exposed firms with less redeployable capital and high input-offshoring dependence cut investment the most. Data on the near-universe of US establishments also point to measurable, negative effects on establishment turnover (openings and closings). Our results demonstrate how foreign-born political uncertainty is transmitted across international borders, shaping domestic capital formation and labor allocation.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78654194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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