Harold L. Cole, Harold L. Cole, Daniel Neuhann, Guillermo Ordoñez, Guillermo Ordoñez
What a country has done in the past, and what other countries are doing in the present, can feedback for good or for ill in debt markets. We develop a simple model of sovereign bond markets with global investors and endogenous information acquisition about fundamental default probabilities. This model displays hysteresis and contagion in sovereign bond spreads. Small fundamental shocks in one country can induce investors to acquire information, generating price volatility and increased risk premia. These changes may also induce investors to rebalance their portfolio, generating market segmentation and information acquisition in seemingly unrelated economies. Information regimes may persist over time, requiring large improvements in fundamentals to return to more stable bond spread conditions.
{"title":"Debt Crises: For Whom the Bell Tolls","authors":"Harold L. Cole, Harold L. Cole, Daniel Neuhann, Guillermo Ordoñez, Guillermo Ordoñez","doi":"10.3386/W22330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22330","url":null,"abstract":"What a country has done in the past, and what other countries are doing in the present, can feedback for good or for ill in debt markets. We develop a simple model of sovereign bond markets with global investors and endogenous information acquisition about fundamental default probabilities. This model displays hysteresis and contagion in sovereign bond spreads. Small fundamental shocks in one country can induce investors to acquire information, generating price volatility and increased risk premia. These changes may also induce investors to rebalance their portfolio, generating market segmentation and information acquisition in seemingly unrelated economies. Information regimes may persist over time, requiring large improvements in fundamentals to return to more stable bond spread conditions.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79876477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using data from the Michigan Survey, we find a strong relationship between expectations concerning national output growth and future state economic activity. This linkage suggests that sentiment influences aggregate demand. This relationship is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests. However, national sentiment is also positively related to past state economic activity. We therefore turn to instrumental variables, positing that agents in states with a higher share of congressmen from the political party of the sitting President will be more optimistic. This instrument is strong in the first stage, and confirms the relationship between sentiment and future state economic activity.
{"title":"Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States","authors":"J. Benhabib, M. Spiegel","doi":"10.24148/WP2016-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/WP2016-19","url":null,"abstract":"Using data from the Michigan Survey, we find a strong relationship between expectations concerning national output growth and future state economic activity. This linkage suggests that sentiment influences aggregate demand. This relationship is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests. However, national sentiment is also positively related to past state economic activity. We therefore turn to instrumental variables, positing that agents in states with a higher share of congressmen from the political party of the sitting President will be more optimistic. This instrument is strong in the first stage, and confirms the relationship between sentiment and future state economic activity.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"13 1","pages":"01-40"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73148857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2010, the Ministry of Education in Trinidad and Tobago converted 20 low-performing secondary schools from coeducational to single-sex. I exploit these conversions to identify the causal effect of single-sex schooling holding other school inputs constant. After also accounting for student selection, single-sex cohorts at conversion schools score higher on national exams and are four percentage points more likely to complete secondary school. There are also important non-academic effects; all-boys cohorts have fewer arrests as teens, and all-girls cohorts have lower teen pregnancy rates. These benefits are achieved at zero financial cost. Survey evidence suggests that these single-sex effects reflect both direct gender peer effects due to interactions between classmates, and indirect effects generated through changes in teacher behavior.
{"title":"The Effect of Single-Sex Education on Test Scores, School Completion, Arrests, and Teen Motherhood: Evidence from School Transitions","authors":"C. Jackson","doi":"10.3386/W22222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22222","url":null,"abstract":"In 2010, the Ministry of Education in Trinidad and Tobago converted 20 low-performing secondary schools from coeducational to single-sex. I exploit these conversions to identify the causal effect of single-sex schooling holding other school inputs constant. After also accounting for student selection, single-sex cohorts at conversion schools score higher on national exams and are four percentage points more likely to complete secondary school. There are also important non-academic effects; all-boys cohorts have fewer arrests as teens, and all-girls cohorts have lower teen pregnancy rates. These benefits are achieved at zero financial cost. Survey evidence suggests that these single-sex effects reflect both direct gender peer effects due to interactions between classmates, and indirect effects generated through changes in teacher behavior.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89668843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-04-01DOI: 10.1920/WP.IFS.2016.1607
B. Graham
The taxation of high-income earners is of importance to every country and is the subject of a considerable amount of recent academic research. Such high-income earners contribute substantial amounts of tax and generate significant positive spillovers, but are also highly mobile: a 1% increase in the top marginal income tax rate increases out-migrations by around 1.5 to 3%. We review research into taxation of high-income earners to provide a synthesis of existing theoretical and empirical understanding. We offer various avenues for potential future theoretical and empirical research.
{"title":"Taxing high-income earners: tax avoidance and mobility","authors":"B. Graham","doi":"10.1920/WP.IFS.2016.1607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/WP.IFS.2016.1607","url":null,"abstract":"The taxation of high-income earners is of importance to every country and is the subject of a considerable amount of recent academic research. Such high-income earners contribute substantial amounts of tax and generate significant positive spillovers, but are also highly mobile: a 1% increase in the top marginal income tax rate increases out-migrations by around 1.5 to 3%. We review research into taxation of high-income earners to provide a synthesis of existing theoretical and empirical understanding. We offer various avenues for potential future theoretical and empirical research.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"33 1","pages":"1"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75844197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We nonparametrically estimate spillovers of properties financed by the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) onto neighborhood residents by developing a new difference-in-differences style estimator. LIHTC development revitalizes low-income neighborhoods, increasing house prices 6.5%, lowering crime rates, and attracting racially and income diverse populations. LIHTC development in higher income areas causes house price declines of 2.5% and attracts lower income households. Linking these price effects to a hedonic model of preferences, LIHTC developments in low-income areas cause aggregate welfare benefits of $116 million. Affordable housing development acts like a place-based policy and can revitalize low-income communities.
{"title":"Who Wants Affordable Housing in their Backyard? An Equilibrium Analysis of Low Income Property Development","authors":"Rebecca Diamond, Timothy J McQuade","doi":"10.3386/W22204","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22204","url":null,"abstract":"We nonparametrically estimate spillovers of properties financed by the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) onto neighborhood residents by developing a new difference-in-differences style estimator. LIHTC development revitalizes low-income neighborhoods, increasing house prices 6.5%, lowering crime rates, and attracting racially and income diverse populations. LIHTC development in higher income areas causes house price declines of 2.5% and attracts lower income households. Linking these price effects to a hedonic model of preferences, LIHTC developments in low-income areas cause aggregate welfare benefits of $116 million. Affordable housing development acts like a place-based policy and can revitalize low-income communities.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87871955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chang-Tai Hsieh, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Nicholas Li, Ralph Ossa, Mu-Jeung Yang
We propose a new sufficient statistic to measure the gains from trade in models where the extensive margin trade elasticity is not necessarily constant. This statistic is a function of one data moment, the market share of continuing domestic products, and one parameter, the elasticity of substitution between products. It measures the gains from trade in a Ricardian model with any productivity distribution or a Melitz model with any productivity distribution and any pattern of selection into production and exporting. We apply our statistic to measure Canada's gains from the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and find that they are smaller than suggested by statistics that assume a constant extensive margin response of trade.
{"title":"Gains from Trade with Flexible Extensive Margin Adjustment","authors":"Chang-Tai Hsieh, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Nicholas Li, Ralph Ossa, Mu-Jeung Yang","doi":"10.3386/w22069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w22069","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a new sufficient statistic to measure the gains from trade in models where the extensive margin trade elasticity is not necessarily constant. This statistic is a function of one data moment, the market share of continuing domestic products, and one parameter, the elasticity of substitution between products. It measures the gains from trade in a Ricardian model with any productivity distribution or a Melitz model with any productivity distribution and any pattern of selection into production and exporting. We apply our statistic to measure Canada's gains from the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and find that they are smaller than suggested by statistics that assume a constant extensive margin response of trade.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84394052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Leemore S. Dafny, Leemore S. Dafny, Katherine Ho, Katherine Ho, Robin S. Lee, Robin S. Lee
We consider the effect of mergers between firms whose products are not viewed as direct substitutes for the same good or service, but are bundled by a common intermediary. Focusing on hospital mergers across distinct geographic markets, we show that such combinations can reduce competition among merging hospitals for inclusion in insurers' networks, leading to higher prices (or lower-quality care). Using data on hospital mergers from 1996-2012, we find support that this mechanism operates within state boundaries: cross-market, within-state hospital mergers yield price increases of 7-9 percent for acquiring hospitals, whereas out of state acquisitions do not yield significant increases.
{"title":"The Price Effects of Cross-Market Hospital Mergers","authors":"Leemore S. Dafny, Leemore S. Dafny, Katherine Ho, Katherine Ho, Robin S. Lee, Robin S. Lee","doi":"10.3386/W22106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W22106","url":null,"abstract":"We consider the effect of mergers between firms whose products are not viewed as direct substitutes for the same good or service, but are bundled by a common intermediary. Focusing on hospital mergers across distinct geographic markets, we show that such combinations can reduce competition among merging hospitals for inclusion in insurers' networks, leading to higher prices (or lower-quality care). Using data on hospital mergers from 1996-2012, we find support that this mechanism operates within state boundaries: cross-market, within-state hospital mergers yield price increases of 7-9 percent for acquiring hospitals, whereas out of state acquisitions do not yield significant increases.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78007560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we evaluate the incidence of a large cut in value-added taxes (VAT) for French sit-down restaurants. In contrast to previous studies that focus on prices only, we estimate its effect on four groups: workers, firm owners, consumers and suppliers of material goods. Using a difference-in-differences strategy on firm-level data we find that: (1) the effect on consumers was limited, (2) employees and sellers of material goods shared 25 and 16 percent of the total benefit, and (3) the reform mostly benefited owners of sit-down restaurants, who pocketed 41 percent of the tax cut.
{"title":"Who Really Benefits from Consumption Tax Cuts? Evidence from a Large VAT Reform in France.","authors":"Youssef Benzarti, Dorian Carloni","doi":"10.3386/W23848","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W23848","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we evaluate the incidence of a large cut in value-added taxes (VAT) for French sit-down restaurants. In contrast to previous studies that focus on prices only, we estimate its effect on four groups: workers, firm owners, consumers and suppliers of material goods. Using a difference-in-differences strategy on firm-level data we find that: (1) the effect on consumers was limited, (2) employees and sellers of material goods shared 25 and 16 percent of the total benefit, and (3) the reform mostly benefited owners of sit-down restaurants, who pocketed 41 percent of the tax cut.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"365 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91452290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present an equilibrium search model that parsimoniously rationalizes the use of auctions as a sales mechanism for new-in-box goods--a frequent occurrence in online retail markets--and analyze whether the existence of these auctions is welfare enhancing relative to a market consisting only of posted prices. Buyers have a deadline by which the good must be purchased, and sellers choose between auctions and posted-price mechanisms. As the deadline approaches, buyers increase their bids and are more likely to buy through posted-price listings. The model predicts equilibrium price dispersion even for new, homogeneous goods. Using data on one million auction and posted-price listings for new-in-box items on eBay.com, we find robust evidence consistent with our model. As predicted, bidders increase their bids from one auction to the next, equilibrium price dispersion exists, and auctions and posted-price listings coexist. Fitting the model to the data, we find that retail auctions increase total welfare by 1.8% of the average retail price if listing fees exactly cover platform costs, but reduce welfare by 2.3% if listing fees are pure profit
{"title":"A Theory of Bidding Dynamics and Deadlines in Online Retail","authors":"Dominic Coey, B. Larsen, Brennan C. Platt","doi":"10.3386/w22038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w22038","url":null,"abstract":"We present an equilibrium search model that parsimoniously rationalizes the use of auctions as a sales mechanism for new-in-box goods--a frequent occurrence in online retail markets--and analyze whether the existence of these auctions is welfare enhancing relative to a market consisting only of posted prices. Buyers have a deadline by which the good must be purchased, and sellers choose between auctions and posted-price mechanisms. As the deadline approaches, buyers increase their bids and are more likely to buy through posted-price listings. The model predicts equilibrium price dispersion even for new, homogeneous goods. Using data on one million auction and posted-price listings for new-in-box items on eBay.com, we find robust evidence consistent with our model. As predicted, bidders increase their bids from one auction to the next, equilibrium price dispersion exists, and auctions and posted-price listings coexist. Fitting the model to the data, we find that retail auctions increase total welfare by 1.8% of the average retail price if listing fees exactly cover platform costs, but reduce welfare by 2.3% if listing fees are pure profit","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74046659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-02-01DOI: 10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780190226718.013.14
J. Loecker, Johannes van Biesebroeck
We propose a framework to evaluate the potential impact of international competition on firm performance and highlight two points. First, it is important to consider effects on productive efficiency and market power in an integrated framework. The popular concept of (revenue) TFP combines both effects which can lead to problems of estimation and interpretation. Second, greater international competition enlarges the relevant market and can affect both the number and the type of competitors a firm faces, as well as the nature of competition. While it is possible that firms respond by adjusting their production operations, pricing adjustments are all but guaranteed. We contrast three estimation approaches that start, respectively, from the demand side, the product extensive margin, and the production side. We conclude with a few avenues for future research.
{"title":"Effect of International Competition on Firm Productivity and Market Power","authors":"J. Loecker, Johannes van Biesebroeck","doi":"10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780190226718.013.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/OXFORDHB/9780190226718.013.14","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a framework to evaluate the potential impact of international competition on firm performance and highlight two points. First, it is important to consider effects on productive efficiency and market power in an integrated framework. The popular concept of (revenue) TFP combines both effects which can lead to problems of estimation and interpretation. Second, greater international competition enlarges the relevant market and can affect both the number and the type of competitors a firm faces, as well as the nature of competition. While it is possible that firms respond by adjusting their production operations, pricing adjustments are all but guaranteed. We contrast three estimation approaches that start, respectively, from the demand side, the product extensive margin, and the production side. We conclude with a few avenues for future research.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85473138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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