Eliminating firms' access to tax havens can have unintended consequences for their domestic economic activity. We study a policy that limited profit shifting by US multinationals and show it raised the tax cost of domestic investment. Firms affected by the policy responded by reducing investment and domestic employment. Firm-level responses were amplified to local labor markets through the establishment networks of profit-shifting firms. More exposed local labor markets experienced declines in employment, income, and home values and saw increases in government transfers. Policy proposals that limit profit shifting should therefore consider effects on economic activity in addition to tax revenue.
{"title":"Unintended Consequences of Eliminating Tax Havens","authors":"J. Serrato","doi":"10.3386/W24850","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24850","url":null,"abstract":"Eliminating firms' access to tax havens can have unintended consequences for their domestic economic activity. We study a policy that limited profit shifting by US multinationals and show it raised the tax cost of domestic investment. Firms affected by the policy responded by reducing investment and domestic employment. Firm-level responses were amplified to local labor markets through the establishment networks of profit-shifting firms. More exposed local labor markets experienced declines in employment, income, and home values and saw increases in government transfers. Policy proposals that limit profit shifting should therefore consider effects on economic activity in addition to tax revenue.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"175 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79760185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-13DOI: 10.7208/9780226695761-003
Stefano Breschi, F. Lissoni, Ernest Miguelez
Based on an original dataset linking patent data and biographical information for a large sample of US immigrant inventors with Indian names and surnames, specialized in ICT technologies, we investigate the rate and determinants of return migration. For each individual in the dataset, we both estimate the year of entry in the United States, the likely entry channel (work or education), and the permanence spell up to either the return to India or right truncation. By means of survival analysis, we then provide exploratory estimates of the probability of return migration as a function of the conditions at migration (age, education, patenting record, migration motives, and migration cohort) as well as of some activities undertaken while abroad (education and patenting). We find both evidence of negative self-selection with respect to educational achievements in the US and of positive self-selection with respect to patenting propensity. Based on the analysis of time-dependence of the return hazard ratios, return work migrants appear to be negatively self-selected with respect to unobservable skills acquired abroad, while evidence for education migrants is less conclusive.
{"title":"Return Migrants' Self-Selection: Evidence for Indian Inventors","authors":"Stefano Breschi, F. Lissoni, Ernest Miguelez","doi":"10.7208/9780226695761-003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7208/9780226695761-003","url":null,"abstract":"Based on an original dataset linking patent data and biographical information for a large sample of US immigrant inventors with Indian names and surnames, specialized in ICT technologies, we investigate the rate and determinants of return migration. For each individual in the dataset, we both estimate the year of entry in the United States, the likely entry channel (work or education), and the permanence spell up to either the return to India or right truncation. By means of survival analysis, we then provide exploratory estimates of the probability of return migration as a function of the conditions at migration (age, education, patenting record, migration motives, and migration cohort) as well as of some activities undertaken while abroad (education and patenting). We find both evidence of negative self-selection with respect to educational achievements in the US and of positive self-selection with respect to patenting propensity. Based on the analysis of time-dependence of the return hazard ratios, return work migrants appear to be negatively self-selected with respect to unobservable skills acquired abroad, while evidence for education migrants is less conclusive.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"557 1","pages":"17-48"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77152809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Housing discrimination is illegal. However, paired-tester audit experiments have revealed evidence of discrimination in the interactions between potential buyers and real estate agents, raising concern about whether certain groups are systematically excluded from the beneficial effects of healthy neighborhoods. Using data from HUD’s most recent Housing Discrimination Study and micro-level data on key attributes of neighborhoods in 28 US cities, we find strong evidence of discrimination in the characteristics of neighborhoods towards which individuals are steered. Conditional upon the characteristics of the house suggested by the audit tester, minorities are significantly more likely to be steered towards neighborhoods with less economic opportunity and greater exposures to crime and local pollutants. We find that holding locational preferences or income constant, discriminatory steering alone can contribute substantially to the disproportionate number of minority households found in high poverty neighborhoods in the United States. The steering effect is also large enough to fully explain the differential in proximity to Superfund sites among African American mothers. These results have important implications for studies of “neighborhood effects” and confirm an important mechanism underlying observed correlations between race and pollution in the environmental justice literature. Our results also suggest that the basic utility maximization assumptions underlying hedonic and residential sorting models may often be violated, resulting in an important distortion in the provision of local public goods.
{"title":"Sorting or Steering: Experimental Evidence on the Economic Effects of Housing Discrimination","authors":"P. Christensen, C. Timmins","doi":"10.3386/W24826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24826","url":null,"abstract":"Housing discrimination is illegal. However, paired-tester audit experiments have revealed evidence of discrimination in the interactions between potential buyers and real estate agents, raising concern about whether certain groups are systematically excluded from the beneficial effects of healthy neighborhoods. Using data from HUD’s most recent Housing Discrimination Study and micro-level data on key attributes of neighborhoods in 28 US cities, we find strong evidence of discrimination in the characteristics of neighborhoods towards which individuals are steered. Conditional upon the characteristics of the house suggested by the audit tester, minorities are significantly more likely to be steered towards neighborhoods with less economic opportunity and greater exposures to crime and local pollutants. We find that holding locational preferences or income constant, discriminatory steering alone can contribute substantially to the disproportionate number of minority households found in high poverty neighborhoods in the United States. The steering effect is also large enough to fully explain the differential in proximity to Superfund sites among African American mothers. These results have important implications for studies of “neighborhood effects” and confirm an important mechanism underlying observed correlations between race and pollution in the environmental justice literature. Our results also suggest that the basic utility maximization assumptions underlying hedonic and residential sorting models may often be violated, resulting in an important distortion in the provision of local public goods.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85688018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Financial Crisis began and accelerated in short-term money markets. One such market is the multi-trillion dollar sale-and-repurchase (“repo”) market, where prices show strong reactions during the crisis. The academic literature and policy community remain unsettled about the role of repo runs, because detailed data on repo quantities is not available. We provide quantity evidence of the run on repo through an examination of the collateral brought to emergency liquidity facilities of the Federal Reserve. We show that the magnitude of repo discounts (“haircuts”) on specific collateral is related to the likelihood of that collateral being brought to Fed facilities.
{"title":"The Run on Repo and the Fed's Response","authors":"Gary B. Gorton, Toomas Laarits, Andrew Metrick","doi":"10.3386/W24866","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24866","url":null,"abstract":"The Financial Crisis began and accelerated in short-term money markets. One such market is the multi-trillion dollar sale-and-repurchase (“repo”) market, where prices show strong reactions during the crisis. The academic literature and policy community remain unsettled about the role of repo runs, because detailed data on repo quantities is not available. We provide quantity evidence of the run on repo through an examination of the collateral brought to emergency liquidity facilities of the Federal Reserve. We show that the magnitude of repo discounts (“haircuts”) on specific collateral is related to the likelihood of that collateral being brought to Fed facilities.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76203611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper studies the labor market participation of older workers in Belgium over the last 3 decades. It outlines the changes to the institutional framework of relevance for labor market participation and employment. Drawing on data from the European Union Labour Force Survey (LFS) over the period 1983-2013, we provide evidence of the trends in participation in (early-) retirement routes. We also explore how the jobs occupied by older workers have changed over time, both in terms of their “quality” and the “quantity” of work involved. Part-time work is found to become more common, though with different attributes for men and women.
{"title":"Older Men’s Labor Force Participation in Belgium","authors":"Alain Jousten, M. Lefebvre","doi":"10.3386/W24669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24669","url":null,"abstract":"The paper studies the labor market participation of older workers in Belgium over the last 3 decades. It outlines the changes to the institutional framework of relevance for labor market participation and employment. Drawing on data from the European Union Labour Force Survey (LFS) over the period 1983-2013, we provide evidence of the trends in participation in (early-) retirement routes. We also explore how the jobs occupied by older workers have changed over time, both in terms of their “quality” and the “quantity” of work involved. Part-time work is found to become more common, though with different attributes for men and women.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"102 1","pages":"33-50"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80647486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rebecca Diamond, M. Dickstein, Timothy J McQuade, Petra Persson
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) established health insurance marketplaces where consumers can buy individual coverage. Leveraging novel credit card and bank account micro-data, we identify new enrollees in the California marketplace and measure their health spending and premium payments. Following enrollment, we observe dramatic spikes in individuals' health care consumption. We also document widespread attrition, with more than half of all new enrollees dropping coverage before the end of the plan year. Enrollees who drop out re-time health spending to the months of insurance coverage. This drop-out behavior generates a new type of adverse selection: insurers face high costs relative to the premiums collected when they enroll strategic consumers. We show that the pattern of attrition undermines market stability and can drive insurers to exit, even absent differences in enrollees' underlying health risks. Further, using data on plan price increases, we show that insurers largely shift the costs of attrition to non-drop-out enrollees, whose inertia generates low price sensitivity. Our results suggest that campaigns to improve use of social insurance may be more efficient when they jointly target take-up and attrition.
{"title":"Take-Up, Drop-Out, and Spending in ACA Marketplaces","authors":"Rebecca Diamond, M. Dickstein, Timothy J McQuade, Petra Persson","doi":"10.3386/W24668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24668","url":null,"abstract":"The Affordable Care Act (ACA) established health insurance marketplaces where consumers can buy individual coverage. Leveraging novel credit card and bank account micro-data, we identify new enrollees in the California marketplace and measure their health spending and premium payments. Following enrollment, we observe dramatic spikes in individuals' health care consumption. We also document widespread attrition, with more than half of all new enrollees dropping coverage before the end of the plan year. Enrollees who drop out re-time health spending to the months of insurance coverage. This drop-out behavior generates a new type of adverse selection: insurers face high costs relative to the premiums collected when they enroll strategic consumers. We show that the pattern of attrition undermines market stability and can drive insurers to exit, even absent differences in enrollees' underlying health risks. Further, using data on plan price increases, we show that insurers largely shift the costs of attrition to non-drop-out enrollees, whose inertia generates low price sensitivity. Our results suggest that campaigns to improve use of social insurance may be more efficient when they jointly target take-up and attrition.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85497499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A growing theoretical literature emphasizes that prominent individuals (‘leaders’) can be instrumental in changing behaviors and beliefs inside social networks, and consequently play an important role in shaping the path of history. We test this assertion in the context of the U.S. Civil War. Our analysis is organized around a natural experiment: leaders of the failed German revolution of 1848-49 were expelled to the U.S., and became important anti-slavery campaigners who helped mobilize Union Army volunteers. We find that towns where Forty-Eighters settled in the 1850s increased their enlistments by ten men per hundred adult males over the course of the war, or roughly eighty percent. The Forty-Eighters’ influence worked at least in part through the local press and local social clubs. In the army, Forty-Eighter officers reduced their companies’ desertion rate. In the long run, towns where Forty-Eighters settled were more likely to form a local branch of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People.
{"title":"Leadership in Social Networks: Evidence from the Forty-Eighters in the Civil War","authors":"C. Dippel, Stephan Heblich","doi":"10.3386/W24656","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24656","url":null,"abstract":"A growing theoretical literature emphasizes that prominent individuals (‘leaders’) can be instrumental in changing behaviors and beliefs inside social networks, and consequently play an important role in shaping the path of history. We test this assertion in the context of the U.S. Civil War. Our analysis is organized around a natural experiment: leaders of the failed German revolution of 1848-49 were expelled to the U.S., and became important anti-slavery campaigners who helped mobilize Union Army volunteers. We find that towns where Forty-Eighters settled in the 1850s increased their enlistments by ten men per hundred adult males over the course of the war, or roughly eighty percent. The Forty-Eighters’ influence worked at least in part through the local press and local social clubs. In the army, Forty-Eighter officers reduced their companies’ desertion rate. In the long run, towns where Forty-Eighters settled were more likely to form a local branch of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85600600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In a stylized model, firms differentiate their products to escape import com- petition. Facing a nested CES demand, each firm chooses between a nest with competitors and its own nest under higher costs. The profit from differentiation is an inverted U-shaped function of firm productivity. It increases with import competition and is lower than the social benefit. Differentiation increases the gains from trade. In establishment data from China spanning its 2001 WTO accession, tariff cuts are associated with increases in productivity, introduction of new goods, switches to skill-intensive sectors. Markups in the model explain the large increases in revenue productivity among small firms and input suppliers.
{"title":"Escaping Import Competition in China","authors":"Ana Cecília Fieler, Ann E. Harrison","doi":"10.3386/w24527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w24527","url":null,"abstract":"In a stylized model, firms differentiate their products to escape import com- petition. Facing a nested CES demand, each firm chooses between a nest with competitors and its own nest under higher costs. The profit from differentiation is an inverted U-shaped function of firm productivity. It increases with import competition and is lower than the social benefit. Differentiation increases the gains from trade. In establishment data from China spanning its 2001 WTO accession, tariff cuts are associated with increases in productivity, introduction of new goods, switches to skill-intensive sectors. Markups in the model explain the large increases in revenue productivity among small firms and input suppliers.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73282937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Abebe, Margaret S. McMillan, Michel Serafinelli
We quantify foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers by comparing changes in total factor productivity (TFP) among domestic plants in districts that attracted a large greenfield foreign plant and districts where greenfield FDI was licensed but not yet operational. Treated and untreated districts have similar trends in TFP prior to the opening of the large greenfield foreign plant. Over the four years starting with the year of the opening, TFP of domestic plants is 8% higher in treated districts. Using an alternative identification strategy that exploits the assignment of land for FDI by the Ethiopian Government, we obtain similar results. Foreign plants also attract new economic activity to treated districts. Exposure to foreign firms enhances domestic firms’: (i) production processes; (ii) managerial and organizational practices; (iii) logistics and; (iv) knowledge about exporting. Knowledge transfer is more likely among labor or vertically linked firms but also occurs outside these channels.
{"title":"Foreign Direct Investment and Knowledge Diffusion in Poor Locations: Evidence from Ethiopia","authors":"G. Abebe, Margaret S. McMillan, Michel Serafinelli","doi":"10.3386/W24461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24461","url":null,"abstract":"We quantify foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers by comparing changes in total factor productivity (TFP) among domestic plants in districts that attracted a large greenfield foreign plant and districts where greenfield FDI was licensed but not yet operational. Treated and untreated districts have similar trends in TFP prior to the opening of the large greenfield foreign plant. Over the four years starting with the year of the opening, TFP of domestic plants is 8% higher in treated districts. Using an alternative identification strategy that exploits the assignment of land for FDI by the Ethiopian Government, we obtain similar results. Foreign plants also attract new economic activity to treated districts. Exposure to foreign firms enhances domestic firms’: (i) production processes; (ii) managerial and organizational practices; (iii) logistics and; (iv) knowledge about exporting. Knowledge transfer is more likely among labor or vertically linked firms but also occurs outside these channels.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78229020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shinichi Kamiya, Jun-Koo Kang, Jungmin Kim, Andreas Milidonis, René M. Stulz
We examine which firms are targets of successful cyberattacks and how they are affected. We find that cyberattacks are more likely to occur at larger and more visible firms, more highly valued firms, firms with more intangible assets, and firms with less board attention to risk management. These attacks affect firms adversely when consumer financial information is appropriated, but seem to have little impact otherwise. Attacks where consumer financial information is appropriated are associated with a significant negative stock market reaction, an increase in leverage following greater debt issuance, a deterioration in credit ratings, and an increase in cash flow volatility. These attacks also affect sales growth adversely for large firms and firms in retail industries, and there is evidence that they decrease investment in the short run. Affected firms respond to such attacks by cutting the CEO's bonus as a fraction of total compensation, by reducing the risk-taking incentives of management, and by taking actions to strengthen their risk management. The evidence is consistent with cyberattacks increasing boards' assessment of target firm risk exposures and decreasing their risk appetite.
{"title":"What is the Impact of Successful Cyberattacks on Target Firms","authors":"Shinichi Kamiya, Jun-Koo Kang, Jungmin Kim, Andreas Milidonis, René M. Stulz","doi":"10.3386/W24409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W24409","url":null,"abstract":"We examine which firms are targets of successful cyberattacks and how they are affected. We find that cyberattacks are more likely to occur at larger and more visible firms, more highly valued firms, firms with more intangible assets, and firms with less board attention to risk management. These attacks affect firms adversely when consumer financial information is appropriated, but seem to have little impact otherwise. Attacks where consumer financial information is appropriated are associated with a significant negative stock market reaction, an increase in leverage following greater debt issuance, a deterioration in credit ratings, and an increase in cash flow volatility. These attacks also affect sales growth adversely for large firms and firms in retail industries, and there is evidence that they decrease investment in the short run. Affected firms respond to such attacks by cutting the CEO's bonus as a fraction of total compensation, by reducing the risk-taking incentives of management, and by taking actions to strengthen their risk management. The evidence is consistent with cyberattacks increasing boards' assessment of target firm risk exposures and decreasing their risk appetite.","PeriodicalId":18934,"journal":{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81422021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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