Nature Food最新文献

Agricultural and food supply chains in the United States are essential for both global and local food security, yet the transportation of agri-food commodities has received little attention despite being an essential feature for connecting production to consumption. Here we map the US agri-food distribution onto real-world highways, railways and waterways and also quantify the trade-offs between cost, path redundancy and carbon emissions of agri-food transit across transportation modes. Highways show the greatest path redundancy; relative to waterways, highways also cost 3 orders of magnitude more and emit 60 times more carbon. On the contrary, waterways show the lowest cost and emission levels, but path redundancy against transportation disturbances is 80% lower than for highways. Railways offer a middle ground on path redundancy, carbon emission and cost concerns compared to highways and waterways. Our findings can inform efforts to balance affordability, resilience and sustainability in agri-food transportation.

Farming activities contribute to soil antibiotic pollution, posing health risks for rural farm workers, especially on small farms in impoverished regions. The effectiveness of large farms in reducing poverty-induced soil antibiotic exposure risk (SABER) remains uncertain. Here we integrate global datasets on concentration of soil antibiotics, rural farm-worker employments and on-farm working hours to quantify SABER. We find that exposure-weighted relative populations are concentrated in underdeveloped regions, particularly East Africa and South and Southeast Asia. A 1,000 ha farm is optimal for SABER reduction, farm employment and working hours, outperforming both smaller and larger farms. Establishing large farms in the top 20% of priority areas can cover 47.3–75.5% of SABER hotspots, while establishing large farms in the top 44% of priority areas achieves the highest coverage of SABER hotspots without substantial declines in rural employment. This approach offers practical strategies to mitigate SABER while maintaining rural farm-worker employment.

Climate change will alter the geographical locations most suited for crop production, but adaptation to these new conditions may be constrained by edaphic and socio-economic factors. Here we investigate climate change adaptation constraints in banana, a major export crop of Latin America and the Caribbean. We derived optimal climatic, edaphic and socio-economic conditions from the distribution of intensive banana production across Latin America and the Caribbean, identified using remote sensing imagery. We found that intensive banana production is constrained to low-lying, warm aseasonal regions with slightly acidic soils, but is less constrained by precipitation, as irrigation facilitates production in drier regions. Production is limited to areas close to shipping ports and with high human population density. Rising temperatures, coupled with requirements for labour and export infrastructure, will result in a 60% reduction in the area suitable for export banana production, along with yield declines in most current banana producing areas.

Climate change alters the climatic suitability of croplands, likely shifting the spatial distribution and diversity of global food crop production. Analyses of future potential food crop diversity have been limited to a small number of crops. Here we project geographical shifts in the climatic niches of 30 major food crops under 1.5–4 °C global warming and assess their impact on current crop production and potential food crop diversity across global croplands. We found that in low-latitude regions, 10–31% of current production would shift outside the climatic niche even under 2 °C global warming, increasing to 20–48% under 3 °C warming. Concurrently, potential food crop diversity would decline on 52% (+2 °C) and 56% (+3 °C) of global cropland. However, potential diversity would increase in mid to high latitudes, offering opportunities for climate change adaptation. These results highlight substantial latitudinal differences in the adaptation potential and vulnerability of the global food system under global warming.

Retail food environments influence food purchasing and dietary patterns. A global analysis of the food retail landscape allowing comparisons across geographical regions is therefore needed to tackle diet-related non-communicable diseases. Here we examine trends in retail food environments from 2009 to 2023 across 97 countries, exploring associations with changes in obesity prevalence. Increases were observed in the density of chain outlets, grocery sales from chain retailers, unhealthy food sales per capita and digital grocery sales; non-chain outlet density and the ratio of non-chain to chain outlets declined over time. South Asia and low- and middle-income countries overall experienced the most rapid transformation. Changes in retail environments and the prevalence of obesity were found to be positively correlated. As retail environments become increasingly digital and dominated by large chains, important implications for diets and health should be expected, particularly in lower-income countries.

Aquaculture carrying capacity (CC) can be used to guide sustainable aquaculture development over the long term through the regenerative power of the environment. In this study, a model has been developed to estimate CC by combining marine spatial planning for physical CC, management criteria for production CC, eutrophication and pathogen risk for ecological CC, and social acceptance based on legislative and management criteria. The estimates of CC for major African freshwater lakes and the marine exclusive economic zones of Africa indicate that 10–11 Mt of fish could be produced annually while preserving ecosystem goods and services, potentially increasing fish consumption by the population of the African continent by 7 kg per capita per year (an increase of 70%). Supply-side forecasts and demand-side estimates can support policymakers in defining targets for aquaculture expansion that avoid ecological, economic and social tipping points.

Correction to: Nature Food https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-024-01109-4, published online 14 January 2025.

Ammonia-based synthetic nitrogen fertilizers (N fertilizers) are critical for global food security. However, their production, primarily dependent on fossil fuels, is energy- and carbon-intensive and vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, affecting 1.8 billion people reliant on either imported fertilizers or natural gas. Here we examine the global N-fertilizer supply chain and analyse context-specific trade-offs of low-carbon ammonia production pathways. Carbon capture and storage can reduce overall emissions by up to 70%, but still relies on natural gas. Electrolytic and biochemical processes minimize emissions but are 2–3 times more expensive and require 100–300 times more land and water than the business-as-usual production. Decentralized production has the potential to reduce transportation costs, emissions, reliance on imports and price volatility, increasing agricultural productivity in the global south, but requires policy support. Interdisciplinary approaches are essential to understand these trade-offs and find resilient ways to feed a growing population while minimizing climate impacts.