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Impact of geomechanical effects during SAGD process in a meander belt 曲流带SAGD过程中地质力学效应的影响
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.2516/OGST/2018011
I. Malinouskaya, C. Preux, N. Guy, G. Etienne
In the reservoir simulations, the geomechanical effects are usually taken into account to describe the porosity and the permeability variations. In this paper, we present a new method, patented by authors, which allows to model the geomechanical effects also on the well productivity index. The Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) method is widely used for the heavy oil production. A very high variation in pressure and temperature play a significant role on the petrophysical properties and may impact the productivity estimation. In this paper we develop a new simplified geomechanical model in order to account for the thermal and pressure effects on the porosity, permeability and the productivity index during the reservoir simulation. At the current state, these dependencies are defined using semi-analytical relationships. The model is applied to a meandering fluvial reservoir based on 3D outcrop observations. The productivity is found underestimated if the pressure and temperature effects on the petrophysical properties are ignored in the reservoir simulation. Moreover, this study shows an important impact of thermal effects on the productivity estimation. The results of this work show that it is essential to properly take into account the geomechanical effects on the petrophysical properties and also on the productivity index for a better productivity estimation.
在储层模拟中,通常考虑地质力学效应来描述孔隙度和渗透率的变化。在本文中,我们提出了一种由作者申请专利的新方法,该方法可以模拟地质力学对油井产能指数的影响。蒸汽辅助重力泄油(SAGD)方法在稠油开采中得到了广泛的应用。压力和温度的巨大变化对岩石物性有重要影响,并可能影响产能估算。为了考虑储层模拟过程中热压对孔隙度、渗透率和产能指标的影响,建立了一种新的简化地质力学模型。在当前状态下,这些依赖关系是使用半分析关系定义的。在三维露头观测的基础上,将该模型应用于某曲流储层。在储层模拟中,如果忽略压力和温度对岩石物性的影响,会发现产能被低估。此外,本研究还显示了热效应对生产力估算的重要影响。这项工作的结果表明,为了更好地估计产能,必须适当考虑地质力学对岩石物理性质和产能指数的影响。
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引用次数: 4
Efficient estimation of hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM) solution viscosity for enhanced oil recovery process by polymer flooding 聚合物驱提高采收率过程中水解聚丙烯酰胺(HPAM)溶液粘度的有效估算
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.2516/OGST/2018006
A. Rostami, Mahdi Kalantari-Meybodi, M. Karimi, A. Tatar, A. Mohammadi
Polymers applications have been progressively increased in sciences and engineering including chemistry, pharmacology science, and chemical and petroleum engineering due to their attractive properties. Amongst the all types of polymers, partially Hydrolyzed Polyacrylamide (HPAM) is one of the widely used polymers especially in chemistry, and chemical and petroleum engineering. Capability of solution viscosity increment of HPAM is the key parameter in its successful applications; thus, the viscosity of HPAM solution must be determined in any study. Experimental measurement of HPAM solution viscosity is time-consuming and can be expensive for elevated conditions of temperatures and pressures, which is not desirable for engineering computations. In this communication, Multilayer Perceptron neural network (MLP), Least Squares Support Vector Machine approach optimized with Coupled Simulated Annealing (CSA-LSSVM), Radial Basis Function neural network optimized with Genetic Algorithm (GA-RBF), Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System coupled with Conjugate Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (CHPSO-ANFIS) approach, and Committee Machine Intelligent System (CMIS) were used to model the viscosity of HPAM solutions. Then, the accuracy and reliability of the developed models in this study were investigated through graphical and statistical analyses, trend prediction capability, outlier detection, and sensitivity analysis. As a result, it has been found that the MLP and CMIS models give the most reliable results with determination coefficients (R 2 ) more than 0.98 and Average Absolute Relative Deviations (AARD) less than 4.0%. Finally, the suggested models in this study can be applied for efficient estimation of aqueous solutions of HPAM polymer in simulation of polymer flooding into oil reservoirs.
聚合物的应用已逐步增加在科学和工程,包括化学,药理学科学,化学和石油工程,由于其诱人的性质。在所有类型的聚合物中,部分水解聚丙烯酰胺(HPAM)是应用广泛的聚合物之一,特别是在化学、化工和石油工程中。HPAM溶液增粘能力是其成功应用的关键参数;因此,在任何研究中都必须确定HPAM溶液的粘度。HPAM溶液粘度的实验测量是耗时的,并且在温度和压力升高的条件下可能是昂贵的,这对于工程计算是不可取的。本文采用多层感知器神经网络(MLP)、耦合模拟退火优化的最小二乘支持向量机方法(CSA-LSSVM)、遗传算法优化的径向基函数神经网络(GA-RBF)、耦合共轭混合粒子群优化的自适应神经模糊推理系统(CHPSO-ANFIS)方法和委员会机器智能系统(CMIS)对HPAM溶液的粘度进行建模。然后,通过图形分析和统计分析、趋势预测能力、异常值检测和灵敏度分析,对所建立模型的准确性和可靠性进行了考察。结果表明,MLP模型和CMIS模型的确定系数(r2)大于0.98,平均绝对相对偏差(AARD)小于4.0%,结果最可靠。最后,本文提出的模型可用于模拟聚合物驱油藏中HPAM聚合物水溶液的有效估计。
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引用次数: 39
Flow Simulation Using Local Grid Refinements to Model Laminated Reservoirs 基于局部网格细化的层状储层流动模拟
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.2516/OGST/2017043
M. Correia, C. Maschio, D. Schiozer
Super-giant carbonate fields, such as Ghawar, in Saudi Arabia, and Lula, at the Brazilian pre-salt, show highly heterogeneous behavior that is linked to high permeability intervals in thin layers. This article applies Local Grid Refinements (LGR) integrated with upscaling procedures to improve the representation of highly laminated reservoirs in flow simulation by preserving the static properties and dynamic trends from geological model. This work was developed in five main steps: (1) define a conventional coarse grid, (2) define LGR in the conventional coarse grid according to super-k and well locations, (3) apply an upscaling procedure for all scenarios, (4) define LGR directly in the simulation model, without integrate geological trends in LGR and (5) compare the dynamic response for all cases. To check results and compare upscaling matches, was used the benchmark model UNISIM-II-R, a refined model based on a combination of Brazilian Pre-salt and Ghawar field information. The main results show that the upscaling of geological models for coarse grid with LGR in highly permeable thin layers provides a close dynamic representation of geological characterization compared to conventional coarse grid and LGR only near-wells. Pseudo-relative permeability curves should be considered for (a) conventional coarse grid or (b) LGR scenarios under dual-medium flow simulations as the upscaling of discrete fracture networks and dual-medium flow models presents several limitations. The conventional approach of LGR directly in simulation model, presents worse results than LGR integrated with upscaling procedures as the extrapolation of dynamic properties to the coarse block mismatch the dynamic behavior from geological characterization. This work suggests further improvements for results for upscaling procedures that mask the flow behavior in highly laminated reservoirs.
超大型碳酸盐岩油田,如沙特阿拉伯的Ghawar和巴西盐下地区的Lula,表现出与薄层高渗透率层段相关的高度非均质性。本文将局部网格细化(LGR)与升级程序相结合,通过保留地质模型的静态特性和动态趋势来改善高层状储层在流动模拟中的表现。这项工作分为五个主要步骤:(1)定义常规粗网格;(2)根据super-k和井位定义常规粗网格中的LGR;(3)对所有场景应用升级程序;(4)直接在模拟模型中定义LGR,而不考虑LGR的地质趋势;(5)比较所有情况下的动态响应。为了检查结果并比较升级匹配,使用了基准模型UNISIM-II-R,这是一种基于巴西盐下和Ghawar油田信息的改进模型。研究结果表明,与常规粗网格和仅近井LGR相比,含LGR的高渗透薄层粗网格地质模型的升级能更准确地反映地质特征。对于(a)传统的粗网格或(b)双介质流模拟下的LGR情景,应考虑伪相对渗透率曲线,因为离散裂缝网络和双介质流模型的升级存在一些局限性。传统的直接在模拟模型中进行LGR的方法,由于将动态性质外推到粗块体上,与地质特征的动态行为不匹配,其结果不如集成了上尺度过程的LGR。这项工作进一步改善了放大程序的结果,这些程序掩盖了高层状油藏的流动行为。
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引用次数: 7
Real-time capable virtual NOx sensor for diesel engines based on a two-Zone thermodynamic model 基于双区热力学模型的柴油机实时虚拟NOx传感器
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.2516/OGST/2018005
R. Vihar, Urban Žvar Baškovič, T. Katrašnik
This paper presents a control-oriented thermodynamic model capable of predicting nitrogen oxides (NOx ) emissions in diesel engines. It is derived from zero-dimensional combustion model using in-cylinder pressure as the input. The methodology is based on a two-zone thermodynamic model which divides the combustion chamber into a burned and unburned gas zone. The original contribution of proposed method arises from: (1) application of a detailed two-zone modeling framework, developed in a way that the thermodynamic equations could be solved in a closed form without iterative procedure, which provides the basis for achieving high level of predictiveness, on the level of real-time capable models and (2) introduction of relative air-fuel ratio during combustion as a main and physically motivated calibration parameter of the NOx model. The model was calibrated and validated using data sets recorded in two different direct injection diesel engines, i.e . a light and a heavy-duty engine. The model is suitable for real-time applications since it takes less than a cycle to complete the entire closed cycle thermodynamic calculation including NOx prediction, which opens the possibility of integration in the engine control unit for closed-loop or feed-forward control.
本文提出了一种能够预测柴油机氮氧化物(NOx)排放的面向控制的热力学模型。它是以缸内压力为输入的零维燃烧模型推导出来的。该方法基于两区热力学模型,该模型将燃烧室划分为已燃和未燃气体区。提出的方法的最初贡献来自:(1)应用了详细的两区建模框架,该框架以一种不需要迭代过程的封闭形式求解热力学方程的方式开发,这为实现高水平的可实时模型的预测性提供了基础;(2)引入了燃烧过程中的相对空燃比,作为NOx模型的主要和物理驱动的校准参数。该模型使用两台不同的直喷柴油发动机,即:轻型和重型发动机。该模型适用于实时应用,因为它只需不到一个周期就可以完成包括NOx预测在内的整个封闭循环热力学计算,这为发动机控制单元集成闭环或前馈控制提供了可能性。
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引用次数: 8
Correlating Stochastically Distributed Reservoir Heterogeneities with Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage Production 随机分布油藏非均质性与蒸汽辅助重力排采的关系
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.2516/OGST/2017042
Cui Wang, Zhiwei Ma, J. Leung, S. Zanon
Application of big data analytics in reservoir engineering has gained wide attention in recent years. However, designing practical data-driven models for correlating petrophysical measurements and Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) production profiles using actual field data remains difficult. Parameterization of the complex reservoir heterogeneities in these reservoirs is not trivial. In this study, a set of attributes pertinent to characterizing stochastic distributions of shales and lean zones is formulated and used for correlating against a number of production performance measures. A comprehensive investigation of the heterogeneous distribution (continuity, size, proportions, permeability, location, orientation and saturation) of shale barriers and lean zones is presented. First, a series of two-dimensional SAGD models based on typical Athabasca oil reservoir properties and operating conditions are constructed. Geostatistical techniques are applied to stochastically model shale barriers, which are imbedded in a region of degraded rock properties referred to as Low-Quality Sand or LQS, among a background of clean sand. Parameters including correlation lengths, orientation, proportions and permeability anisotropy of the different rock facies are varied. Within each facies, spatial variations in water saturation are modeled probabilistically. In contrast to many previous simulation studies, representative multiphase flow functions and capillarity models are assigned in accordance to individual facies. A set of input attributes based on facies proportions and dimensionless correlation lengths are formulated. Next, to facilitate the assessment of different scenarios, production performance is quantified by numerous dimensionless output attributes defined from recovery factor and steam-to-oil ratio profiles. An additional dimensionless indicator is implemented to capture the production time during which the instantaneous steam-to-oil ratio has exceeded a particular economic threshold. Finally, results of the sensitivity analysis are employed as training and testing datasets in a series of neural network models to correlate the pertinent system attributes and the production performance measures. These models are also used to assess the consequences of ignoring lateral variation of heterogeneities when extracting petrophysical (log) data from vertical delineation wells alone. An important contribution of this work is that it proposes a set of input attributes for correlating reservoir heterogeneity introduced by shale barriers and lean zones to SAGD production performance. It demonstrates that these input attributes, which can be extracted from petrophysical logs, are highly correlated with the ensuing recovery response and heat loss. This work also exemplifies the feasibility and utility of data-driven models in correlating SAGD performance. Furthermore, the proposed set of system variables and modeling approach can be applied directly in field
近年来,大数据分析在油藏工程中的应用受到了广泛关注。然而,设计实用的数据驱动模型,将岩石物理测量和蒸汽辅助重力泄油(SAGD)生产剖面与实际现场数据相关联,仍然很困难。这些油藏复杂储层非均质性的参数化绝非易事。在这项研究中,制定了一组与表征页岩和贫层随机分布相关的属性,并将其用于与一系列生产性能指标相关联。全面研究了页岩屏障和贫岩带的非均质分布(连续性、大小、比例、渗透率、位置、方位和饱和度)。首先,建立了一系列基于Athabasca典型油藏性质和作业条件的二维SAGD模型;地质统计学技术应用于随机模拟页岩屏障,这些屏障嵌入在被称为低质量砂或LQS的退化岩石属性区域中,背景是干净的砂。不同岩相的相关长度、取向、比例、渗透率各向异性等参数均不相同。在每个相中,对含水饱和度的空间变化进行了概率模拟。与以往的许多模拟研究不同,本文根据不同的相划分了具有代表性的多相流函数和毛细管模型。建立了一套基于相比例和无量纲关联长度的输入属性。接下来,为了便于对不同情况进行评估,通过采收率和汽油比曲线定义的无数无量纲输出属性来量化生产性能。采用了一个额外的无量纲指标来捕捉瞬时汽油比超过特定经济阈值的生产时间。最后,将灵敏度分析结果作为一系列神经网络模型的训练和测试数据集,将相关系统属性与生产性能指标关联起来。这些模型还用于评估在单独从垂直圈定井中提取岩石物理(测井)数据时忽略非均质性横向变化的后果。这项工作的一个重要贡献是,它提出了一组输入属性,用于将页岩屏障和贫层引入的储层非均质性与SAGD生产性能相关联。这表明,这些可以从岩石物理测井中提取的输入属性与随后的采收率响应和热损失高度相关。这项工作还举例说明了数据驱动模型在关联SAGD性能方面的可行性和实用性。此外,所提出的系统变量集和建模方法可直接应用于现场数据分析和实验模型的放大研究,以辅助现场操作设计和评估。
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引用次数: 14
Investigation of Asphaltene Adsorption onto Zeolite Beta Nanoparticles to Reduce Asphaltene Deposition in a Silica Sand Pack 沸石β纳米颗粒吸附沥青质以减少硅砂充填中沥青质沉积的研究
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.2516/OGST/2017038
Sepideh Kashefi, M. Lotfollahi, A. Shahrabadi
Zeolite beta nanoparticles were used as a new asphaltene adsorbent for reducing asphaltene deposition during fluid injection into a silica sand pack. At first, the asphaltene adsorption efficiency and capacity of zeolite beta nanoparticles were determined by UV-Vis spectrophotometer. It was found that the proper concentration of nanoparticles for asphaltene adsorption was 10 g/L and the maximum asphaltene adsorption onto zeolite beta was 1.98 mg/m2 . Second, two dynamic experiments including co-injection of crude oil and n-heptane (as an asphaltene precipitant) with and without use of zeolite beta nanoparticles in the sand pack was carried out. The results showed that the use of zeolite beta nanoparticles increased the permeability ratio and outlet fluid's asphaltene content about 22% and 40% compared to without use of nanoparticles, respectively. Moreover, a model based on monolayer asphaltene adsorption onto nanoparticles and asphaltene deposition mechanisms including surface deposition, entrainment and pore throat plugging was developed to determine formation damage during co-injection of crude oil and n-heptane into the sand pack. The proposed model presented good prediction of permeability and porosity ratios with AAD% of 1.07 and 0.07, respectively.
沸石纳米颗粒被用作一种新的沥青质吸附剂,用于减少硅砂充填流体注入过程中的沥青质沉积。首先用紫外-可见分光光度计测定了纳米沸石对沥青质的吸附效率和吸附容量。结果表明,纳米颗粒吸附沥青质的适宜浓度为10 g/L,沸石对沥青质的最大吸附量为1.98 mg/m2。其次,进行了两项动态实验,包括在填砂过程中使用和不使用沸石纳米颗粒的情况下,共注入原油和正庚烷(作为沥青质沉淀剂)。结果表明,与未使用纳米颗粒相比,使用沸石纳米颗粒可使渗透率比和出口流体沥青质含量分别提高约22%和40%。此外,研究人员还建立了一个基于单层沥青烯在纳米颗粒上吸附和沥青烯沉积机制(包括表面沉积、夹带和孔喉堵塞)的模型,以确定原油和正庚烷共注入砂层时对地层的损害。该模型对渗透率和孔隙度的预测效果较好,AAD%分别为1.07和0.07。
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引用次数: 24
GRAB-ECO for Minimal Fuel Consumption Estimation of Parallel Hybrid Electric Vehicles 并联式混合动力汽车最小油耗估算的GRAB-ECO
Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.2516/OGST/2017035
Jianning Zhao, A. Sciarretta, L. Eriksson
As a promising solution to the reduction of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in road transport sector, hybrid electric powertrains are confronted with complex control techniques for the evaluation of the minimal fuel consumption, particularly the excessively long computation time of the design-parameter optimization in the powertrain's early design stage. In this work, a novel and simple GRaphical-Analysis-Based method of fuel Energy Consumption Optimization (GRAB-ECO) is developed to estimate the minimal fuel consumption for parallel hybrid electric powertrains in light- and heavy-duty application. Based on the power ratio between powertrain's power demand and the most efficient engine power, GRAB-ECO maximizes the average operating efficiency of the internal combustion engine by shifting operating points to the most efficient conditions, or by eliminating the engine operation from poorly efficient operating points to pure electric vehicle operation. A turning point is found to meet the requirement of the final state of energy of the battery, which is charge-sustaining mode in this study. The GRAB-ECO was tested with both light- and heavy-duty parallel hybrid electric vehicles, and validated in terms of the minimal fuel consumption and the computation time. Results show that GRAB-ECO accurately approximates the minimal fuel consumption with less than 6% of errors for both light- and heavy-duty parallel hybrid electric powertrains. Meanwhile, GRAB-ECO reduces computation time by orders of magnitude compared with PMP-based (Pontryagin's Minimum Principle) approaches.
混合动力系统作为道路交通领域降低油耗和二氧化碳排放的一种很有前景的解决方案,面临着最小油耗评估的复杂控制技术,特别是动力系统设计初期设计参数优化的计算时间过长。在这项工作中,开发了一种新颖而简单的基于图形分析的燃料能耗优化方法(grabeco),用于估计轻型和重型并联混合动力传动系统的最小燃料消耗。根据动力系统的功率需求与最有效的发动机功率之间的功率比,GRAB-ECO通过将工作点转移到最有效的条件下,或通过将发动机从低效率工作点消除到纯电动汽车工作来最大化内燃机的平均工作效率。找到一个满足电池最终能量状态要求的转折点,即本研究的电量保持模式。在轻型和重型并联混合动力汽车上进行了测试,并在最小油耗和计算时间方面进行了验证。结果表明,无论轻型还是重型并联混合动力系统,grabeco都能精确地逼近最小油耗,误差小于6%。同时,与基于pmp (Pontryagin最小原理)的方法相比,GRAB-ECO减少了数量级的计算时间。
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引用次数: 1
Understanding the Influences of Thermal and Mixture Inhomogeneities on the Auto-Ignition Process in a Controlled Auto-Ignition (CAI) Engine Using LES 利用LES研究热不均匀性和混合气不均匀性对自动点火发动机自动点火过程的影响
Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.2516/OGST/2017025
Esra Yildar, G. Kuenne, Chao He, R. Schießl, Marc-Sebastian, Benzinger, Marius Neurohr, F. Mare, A. Sadiki, Johannes, Janicka
This work applies Large Eddy Simulation (LES) to the combustion process within a CAI engine. The chemical reaction is treated with a pre-tabulation approach based on homogeneous reactor simulations. At this juncture, a five-dimensional chemistry database is employed where the thermo-chemical properties are a function of the unburnt gas temperature, the air–fuel ratio, the exhaust gas ratio, the pressure, and the reaction progress variable. Statistical quantities are gathered for 20 simulated cycles and the averaged pressure curves get compared to measurements. The simulation data are then used to provide further insight into the auto-ignition process. It will be shown how thermo-chemical states are distributed within the cylinder and how the ignition quality depends on them. A statistical analysis is conducted to identify manifolds in the multi-dimensional scalar space along which the conditions leading to ignition evolve. Furthermore the strong influence in between consecutive cycles caused by the exhaust gas is investigated to identify the mechanism of cycle-to-cycle variations.
本工作将大涡模拟(LES)应用于CAI发动机内的燃烧过程。化学反应采用基于均匀反应器模拟的预制表方法进行处理。此时,采用五维化学数据库,其中热化学性质是未燃烧气体温度、空燃比、废气比、压力和反应过程变量的函数。收集了20个模拟循环的统计量,并将平均压力曲线与测量值进行了比较。然后使用模拟数据来进一步了解自动点火过程。它将显示如何热化学状态分布在气缸和如何点火质量取决于他们。通过统计分析,确定了多维标量空间中导致点火条件演变的流形。此外,还研究了废气对连续循环之间的强烈影响,以确定循环间变化的机制。
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引用次数: 3
An Experimental and Simulation Study of Early Flame Development in a Homogeneous-charge Spark-Ignition Engine 均装药火花点火发动机早期火焰发展的实验与仿真研究
Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.2516/OGST/2017028
Yajuvendra Shekhawat, D. Haworth, Alessandro d’Adamo, F. Berni, S. Fontanesi, Philipp Schiffmann, D. Reuss, V. Sick
An integrated experimental and Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) study is presented for homogeneous premixed combustion in a spark-ignition engine. The engine is a single-cylinder two-valve optical research engine with transparent liner and piston: the Transparent Combustion Chamber (TCC) engine. This is a relatively simple, open engine configuration that can be used for LES model development and validation by other research groups. Pressure-based combustion analysis, optical diagnostics and LES have been combined to generate new physical insight into the early stages of combustion. The emphasis has been on developing strategies for making quantitative comparisons between high-speed/high-resolution optical diagnostics and LES using common metrics for both the experiments and the simulations, and focusing on the important early flame development period. Results from two different LES turbulent combustion models are presented, using the same numerical methods and computational mesh. Both models yield Cycle-to-Cycle Variations (CCV) in combustion that are higher than what is observed in the experiments. The results reveal strengths and limitations of the experimental diagnostics and the LES models, and suggest directions for future diagnostic and simulation efforts. In particular, it has been observed that flame development between the times corresponding to the laminar-to-turbulent transition and 1% mass-burned fraction are especially important in establishing the subsequent combustion event for each cycle. This suggests a range of temporal and spatial scales over which future experimental and simulation efforts should focus.
对火花点火发动机均质预混燃烧进行了实验与大涡模拟相结合的研究。该发动机为单缸双气门光学研究发动机,采用透明衬套和活塞:透明燃烧室(TCC)发动机。这是一个相对简单的、开放的引擎配置,可以用于LES模型的开发和其他研究小组的验证。基于压力的燃烧分析、光学诊断和LES相结合,对燃烧的早期阶段产生了新的物理见解。重点是制定策略,在高速/高分辨率光学诊断和LES之间进行定量比较,使用实验和模拟的通用指标,并关注重要的早期火焰发展时期。采用相同的数值方法和计算网格,给出了两种不同的LES湍流燃烧模型的计算结果。两种模型在燃烧中产生的循环到循环变化(CCV)都高于实验中观察到的变化。结果揭示了实验诊断和LES模型的优势和局限性,并为未来的诊断和模拟工作提出了方向。特别是,已经观察到,层流到湍流转变和1%质量燃烧分数对应的时间之间的火焰发展对于建立每个循环的后续燃烧事件尤为重要。这表明未来的实验和模拟工作应该集中在一系列的时间和空间尺度上。
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引用次数: 23
Linking the Value Assessment of Oil and Gas Firms to Ambidexterity Theory Using a Mixture of Normal Distributions 使用混合正态分布将油气公司价值评估与二元性理论联系起来
Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.2516/OGST/2015018
S. Casault, A. Groen, J. Linton
Oil and gas exploration and production firms have return profiles that are not easily explained by current financial theory – the variation in their market returns is non-Gaussian. In this paper, the nature and underlying reason for these significant deviations from expected behavior are considered. Understanding these differences in financial market behavior is important for a wide range of reasons, including: assessing investments, investor relations, decisions to raise capital, assessment of firm and management performance. We show that using a “thicker tailed” mixture of two normal distributions offers a significantly more accurate model than the traditionally Gaussian approach in describing the behavior of the value of oil and gas firms. This mixture of normal distribution is also more effective in bridging the gap between management theory and practice without the need to introduce complex time-sensitive GARCH and/or jump diffusion dynamics. The mixture distribution is consistent with ambidexterity theory that suggests firms operate in two distinct states driven by the primary focus of the firm: an exploration state with high uncertainty and, an exploitation (or production) state with lower uncertainty. The findings have direct implications on improving the accuracy of real option pricing techniques and futures analysis of risk management. Traditional options pricing models assume that commercial returns from these assets are described by a normal random walk. However, a normal random walk model discounts the possibility of large changes to the marketplace from events such as the discovery of important reserves or the introduction of new technology. The mixture distribution proves to be well suited to inherently describe the unusually large risks and opportunities associated with oil and gas production and exploration. A significance testing study of 554 oil and gas exploration and production firms empirically supports using a mixture distribution grounded in ambidexterity theory to describe the value fluctuations for these firms.
石油和天然气勘探和生产公司的回报曲线不容易用当前的金融理论来解释——它们的市场回报变化是非高斯分布的。在本文中,考虑了这些显著偏离预期行为的性质和潜在原因。了解金融市场行为的这些差异很重要,原因有很多,包括:评估投资、投资者关系、筹集资金的决定、评估公司和管理绩效。我们表明,在描述油气公司价值的行为时,使用两个正态分布的“厚尾”混合物比传统的高斯方法提供了一个更准确的模型。这种正态分布的混合也更有效地弥合了管理理论与实践之间的差距,而不需要引入复杂的时间敏感GARCH和/或跳跃扩散动力学。这种混合分布与二元性理论是一致的,二元性理论认为企业在两种截然不同的状态下运作,这两种状态是由企业的主要关注点驱动的:具有高不确定性的勘探状态和具有低不确定性的开采(或生产)状态。研究结果对提高实物期权定价技术的准确性和期货风险管理分析具有直接意义。传统的期权定价模型假设这些资产的商业回报是用正态随机漫步来描述的。然而,一个正常的随机游走模型忽略了诸如发现重要储量或引进新技术等事件对市场产生巨大变化的可能性。事实证明,混合分布非常适合描述与油气生产和勘探相关的异常大的风险和机会。一项对554家油气勘探和生产公司的显著性检验研究从经验上支持使用基于二元性理论的混合分布来描述这些公司的价值波动。
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引用次数: 1
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Oil & Gas Science and Technology-revue De L Institut Francais Du Petrole
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