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Poland's Labour Market Adjustment in Times of Economic Slowdown – WDN3 Survey Results 经济放缓时期波兰劳动力市场调整- WDN3调查结果
Pub Date : 2016-02-23 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2804971
P. Strzelecki, R. Wyszyński
This paper presents the results of a survey carried out in Poland in 2014 among nearly 1500 firms, within the framework of the ECB’s Wage Dynamics Network (WDN). It aims at assessing the impact of the global economic and financial crisis on firms’ business activity, as well as analysing the way the labour market adjusted to the slowdown and the role institutional reforms played at that time. According to our analysis, the absence of real recession, together with a rapid response of wages at the beginning of the slowdown translated into a relatively mild reduction of employment and a moderate unemployment increase. The shocks in 2009 and 2012 were comparable in terms of their scale. In both cases a drop in demand gradually spilled over to lower customers’ ability to pay and to higher uncertainty. However, the shocks hit completely different parts of the economy. While the first shock was observed mainly in export-driven enterprises (industry), the second one was observed mostly in domestic market oriented companies (construction). Moreover, firms in Poland did not experience any additional, major credit constraints during the global financial crisis. The results confirm a relatively high real and nominal wage flexibility and a limited impact of labour market reforms in the period 2009-2013.
本文介绍了2014年在波兰对近1500家公司进行的一项调查的结果,该调查是在欧洲央行工资动态网络(WDN)的框架内进行的。它旨在评估全球经济和金融危机对企业商业活动的影响,以及分析劳动力市场适应经济放缓的方式,以及当时制度改革所起的作用。根据我们的分析,没有真正的衰退,加上经济放缓之初工资的快速反应,转化为相对温和的就业减少和适度的失业率上升。2009年和2012年的冲击规模相当。在这两种情况下,需求的下降逐渐溢出,降低了客户的支付能力,增加了不确定性。然而,这些冲击冲击的是完全不同的经济领域。第一次冲击主要发生在出口驱动型企业(工业),而第二次冲击主要发生在国内市场导向型企业(建筑业)。此外,波兰的企业在全球金融危机期间没有经历任何额外的重大信贷限制。研究结果证实,2009年至2013年期间,实际和名义工资的灵活性相对较高,劳动力市场改革的影响有限。
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引用次数: 2
Migration and Its Effects on the Economic Development: Case of Kosovo 移民及其对经济发展的影响:以科索沃为例
Pub Date : 2015-11-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2820496
Donjeta Morina, Prespë Gashi, Kadë Morina
Migration is a complex process that has affected our country over many decades and still continues to be part of developments in our country's history. Migration has played and continues to play an important role in alleviating unemployment and poverty level in Kosovo, where, from the migration and remittances has positively influenced the growth of social and economic welfare. The main causes of youth migration are economic reasons. The emigration of young people has eased the labor market pressures to some extent and remittances from abroad have helped many families to enjoy a decent standard of living. However, migration does not always have positive effects. By leaving of a part of the workforce, the country is losing a part of human resources that are ready for the job market.The purpose of this paper is precisely to explain the positive role played by this phenomenon towards the human resource development, reduction of unemployment and vocational training through the experience that they gain in destination countries, as well as to affect the negative points or side effects that are brought by the spread of this phenomenon over the years. The paper was conducted through a survey of 300 citizens of Kosovo. The survey was conducted in order to obtain information about the reasons of citizens’ emigration and also to obtain information about the effects that emigration brings to local families. At the end, it is seen from the results that the effects of emigration for the economic development of the country are both positive and negative at the same scale. This phenomenon is a persuasion to the economic and social development of the country, but it also gives negative effects, by removing human resources, that are often professionally able outside the country.
移民是一个复杂的过程,几十年来一直影响着我国,并且仍然是我国历史发展的一部分。移徙在缓解科索沃的失业和贫困水平方面已经并将继续发挥重要作用,在科索沃,移徙和汇款对社会和经济福利的增长产生了积极影响。青年移民的主要原因是经济原因。年轻人的移民在一定程度上缓解了劳动力市场的压力,来自国外的汇款帮助许多家庭享受了体面的生活水平。然而,移民并不总是有积极的影响。通过离开一部分劳动力,国家正在失去一部分准备进入就业市场的人力资源。本文的目的恰恰是通过他们在目的国获得的经验来解释这种现象对人力资源开发,减少失业和职业培训所起的积极作用,以及影响这种现象多年来的传播所带来的消极点或副作用。这份报告是通过对300名科索沃公民的调查得出的。进行这项调查是为了了解公民移民的原因,也为了了解移民给当地家庭带来的影响。最后,从结果可以看出,移民对国家经济发展的影响在相同的尺度上既有积极的影响,也有消极的影响。这种现象是对该国经济和社会发展的一种说服,但它也造成负面影响,因为它移走了往往在国外具有专业能力的人力资源。
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引用次数: 1
China's Labor Market in the 'New Normal' “新常态”下的中国劳动力市场
Pub Date : 2015-07-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513570693.001.A001
W. Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, A. Schipke
As China implements reforms under the “new normal,” maintaining stability in the labor market is a priority. The country’s demography and labor dynamics are changing, after benefitting in past decades from ample cheap labor. So far, the labor market appears to be resilient, even as growth slows, driven in part by expansion of the services sector. Migrant flows and possible labor hoarding in overcapacity sectors may also help explain this. Yet, while the latter two factors help serve as shock absorbers - contributing to labor market stability in the short term - if they persist, they may delay the needed adjustment process, contributing to an inefficient allocation of resources and curtailing productivity gains. This paper quantifies to what extent structural trends and the reform pace affect employment growth under the new normal. Delays in reform implementation would weaken growth prospects in the medium term, running the risk that job creation will fall below policy targets, leading to labor market pressures in the future. In contrast, successful transition might require faster reforms, including in the overcapacity and state-owned enterprise sectors, supported by well targeted social safety nets.
随着中国在“新常态”下实施改革,保持劳动力市场的稳定是当务之急。在过去几十年得益于充足的廉价劳动力之后,该国的人口结构和劳动力动态正在发生变化。到目前为止,劳动力市场似乎具有弹性,尽管经济增长在一定程度上受到服务业扩张的推动而放缓。移民流动和产能过剩行业可能存在的劳动力囤积现象,或许也有助于解释这一现象。然而,尽管后两个因素有助于缓冲冲击——在短期内有助于劳动力市场的稳定——但如果它们持续存在,可能会推迟所需的调整过程,导致资源配置效率低下,并削弱生产率的增长。本文量化了新常态下结构性趋势和改革步伐对就业增长的影响程度。改革实施的延迟将削弱中期的增长前景,有可能导致新增就业岗位低于政策目标,从而导致未来的劳动力市场压力。相比之下,成功转型可能需要更快的改革,包括在产能过剩和国有企业领域的改革,并得到目标明确的社会保障网络的支持。
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引用次数: 23
Sovereign States and Surging Water: Brahmaputra River between China and India 主权国家和汹涌的河水:中国和印度之间的雅鲁藏布江
Pub Date : 2015-05-21 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2608825
S. Mahapatra, K. Ratha
Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world subject to combined effects of glacier melt, extreme monsoon rainfall and sea level rise. Water is emerging as a new possible irritant between China and India. For India, Water of Brahmaputra constitutes a major lifeline for people of Tibet and North Eastern states. The building of dams and diversion projects in Tibet by China is a matter of grave concern for lower riparian states. For China, it is having hidden inclination to create employment potentials for more than millions of people by making Brahmaputra diversion project forward. The requirement of fresh water as the pollution grows and population rise has forced China to have the Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River project. The objective of this paper is to focus the reaction of both people on the water diversion issue, disastrous ecological consequences and the urgent necessity for having a water treaty between Asian giants. It also examines the hegemonic tendencies of China on Brahmaputra River & exercise of power for economic gains and outcomes. The policies China takes on trans- Boundary Rivers are not symptom of peaceful nature of its rise. In addition, it establishes the fact that sharing of information, ecosystem-friendly policies, thought and mutual understanding will dispel the suspicion and develop trust between two countries, creating an enabling environment for better management of Brahmaputra River.
雅鲁藏布江流域是世界上最脆弱的地区之一,受到冰川融化、极端季风降雨和海平面上升的综合影响。水资源问题正成为中印之间可能出现的新问题。对印度来说,雅鲁藏布江是西藏和东北各邦人民的主要生命线。中国在西藏修建水坝和引水工程是下游各州严重关切的问题。对中国来说,通过推进雅鲁藏布江引水工程,为数百万人创造就业机会的潜在倾向。随着污染的增加和人口的增长,对淡水的需求迫使中国启动了雅鲁藏布江工程。本文的目的是集中两个人对调水问题的反应,灾难性的生态后果以及亚洲巨人之间签订水条约的迫切必要性。它还考察了中国在雅鲁藏布江上的霸权倾向以及为经济利益和结果而行使权力。中国对跨界河流采取的政策并不是其和平崛起的征兆。此外,它还确立了这样一个事实,即信息共享、生态系统友好型政策、思想和相互理解将消除两国之间的怀疑,建立信任,为更好地管理雅鲁藏布江创造有利的环境。
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引用次数: 3
Wages and Corporate Dominance (Плате и Koрпоративнa Доминацијa)
Pub Date : 2015-03-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2583986
William R. Dipietro
English Abstract: As wages are the primary means of income for the majority of people in every country in the world, understanding the reasons for differences in wages is important for human welfare. One potential source of differences in wages between countries is differences in the degree of corporate dominance. This paper proposes that average country wages are negatively related to the extent of corporate dominance. The proposition is tested using cross country regression analysis. The results show that greater corporate dominance reduces average national wages when adjusting for the level of economic development and other relevant variables.Serbian Abstract: Пошто су плате главни извор прихода за већину људи у свакој земљи на свету, разумевање разлога за разлике у платама је важно за људску добробит. Један од потенцијалних извора разлика у платама између земаља је разлика у степену корпоративне доминације. У раду се претпоставља да су просечне плате негативно повезане са обимом корпоративне доминације. Претпоставка је тестирана помоћу регресионе анализе између земаља. Резултати показују да већа корпоративна доминација смањује просечне националне зараде приликом прилагођавања нивоа економског развоја и других релевантних варијабли.
英文摘要:工资是世界上每个国家大多数人的主要收入来源,因此了解工资差异的原因对人类福祉非常重要。造成国家间工资差异的一个潜在原因是企业主导程度的差异。本文提出,国家平均工资与企业主导程度呈负相关。本文利用跨国回归分析对这一观点进行了检验。结果表明,在对经济发展水平和其他相关变量进行调整后,企业主导程度越高,国家平均工资就越低。 塞尔维亚语 摘要:工资支付的主要原因是什么?区分费用的潜在方法之一是公司支配地位程度的不同。在这种情况下,公司应预设与公司支配权负相关的切块支付。在回归分析的帮助下,对预置进行了检验。结果表明,企业主导地位对国家发展和其他相关变化有很大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Russian Periphery is Dying in Movement: A Cohort Assessment of Russian Internal Youth Migration Based on Census Data 俄罗斯边缘地区正在迁移中死亡:基于人口普查数据的俄罗斯内部青年迁移队列评估
Pub Date : 2014-12-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2542299
Ilya Kashnitsky, N. Mkrtchyan
In this paper we study youth migration in Russia at the sub-regional level of administrative division. The aim of the research is to assess the volume of internal youth migration. The task is only doable with the use of census data, which not only allows us to research at the sub-regional level, but also provides much more accurate information on youth migration than the current migration record does. We used the survival method to study sub-regional population dynamics. As mortality is quite insignificant at young ages, most of the change in cohort size is caused by migration. Our estimates show that during the last intercensus period (2003-2010) up to 70 percent of youth cohorts have left the regional periphery for good after graduating from school, and there was no significant return to the demographically depleted periphery in the young working ages.
本文在行政区划的次区域层面上研究了俄罗斯的青年移民问题。这项研究的目的是评估国内青年移民的数量。只有使用人口普查数据才能完成这项任务,这不仅使我们能够在次区域层面进行研究,而且还提供了比当前移民记录更准确的青年移民信息。采用生存法研究分区域种群动态。由于年轻时的死亡率相当微不足道,因此队列规模的大部分变化是由迁移引起的。我们的估计表明,在上一次人口普查期间(2003-2010年),高达70%的青年群体在毕业后离开了区域边缘地区,而且在年轻的工作年龄,没有明显的回归人口枯竭的边缘地区。
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引用次数: 12
The Diversity of Okun's Coefficient in the Regions of Poland 波兰地区奥肯系数的多样性
Pub Date : 2014-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2461427
P. Kliber
In the paper we calculate the Okun's coefficient in the regions of Poland. We compare the coefficients calculated for each region separately with the estimations from seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) models. We argue that the second method gives a better estimate, because shocks in output are highly correlated across regions. Then we search in the Polish regions for the clubs consisting of regions with equal Okun's coefficients, what indicates the similarity in the macroeconomic structure and labor market. We find two such clubs: northwest of Poland and the eastern border. Finally, we draw some conclusions concerning economic policy in working against unemployment.
本文计算了波兰地区的奥肯系数。我们将每个区域单独计算的系数与看似无关回归(SUR)模型的估计值进行了比较。我们认为,第二种方法给出了更好的估计,因为产出的冲击在各地区之间高度相关。然后,我们在波兰地区搜索由具有相等奥肯系数的地区组成的俱乐部,这表明宏观经济结构和劳动力市场的相似性。我们发现了两个这样的俱乐部:波兰西北部和东部边境。最后,我们得出了一些关于应对失业的经济政策的结论。
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引用次数: 2
Международный Опыт Разработки и Реализации Стратегии Управления Человеческими Ресурсами (International Experience of Developing and Realization of Strategic Management of Human Resources)
Pub Date : 2014-03-04 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2433432
A. Doctorovich, V. Kushlin, V. Ustenko
Russian Abstract: Выполненная работа посвящена актуальной теме – исследованию теоретических основ, методологии и практике стратегического управления человеческими ресурсами. В рамках данной темы исследовано также развитие трудового и человеческого потенциалов. Выявлена взаимосвязь между процессами развития трудового и человеческого потенциалов, с одной стороны, и проблемами стратегического управления человеческими ресурсами, с другой. Подробно исследованы система целей и задачи развития человеческого и трудового потенциалов, стратегического и оперативного управления человеческими ресурсами. Изучена роль образования в стратегическом управлении человеческими ресурсами и воспроизводстве человеческого потенциала. На основании проведенного системного сравнительного анализа показано наличие существенных различий категорий «человеческий потенциал», «трудовой потенциал» и «стратегическое управление человеческими ресурсами» и обоснована необходимость опоры на современные теории развития человеческого потенциала, что существенно обогащает теоретико-концептуальную основу стратегического управления человеческими ресурсами. При этом условии сберегающее правление человеческими ресурсами на основе гибкого подхода и в рамках основных концепций теории развития человеческого потенциала позволяет обеспечить его расширенное воспроизводство и повысить эффективность труда. Выделены перспективные области исследований и осуществлены разработки в нескольких направлениях. Во-первых, в сфере стратегического управления человеческими ресурсами. Во-вторых, в совершенствовании теории развития человеческого потенциала и практики использования потенциала труда. Кроме того, научно обоснованы предложения по исследованиям в области взаимодействия социальной и экономической политик с целью выработки практических рекомендаций по совершенствованию стратегии эффективного управления человеческими ресурсами. English Abstract: The present paper covers a topical issue related to the investigation of the theoretical basis, methodology, and practice of strategic management of human resources. Within the framework of the given research, we have also explored the issue of the development of labour and human potential. We have uncovered the interrelation between the processes of development of labour and human potential, on the one hand, and the problems of strategic human resource management, on the other. We have examined in detail the system of goals and targets for the development of human and labour potential, strategic and operational management of human resources. Moreover, we have explored the role of education in human resource management and human development. Based on the systems and comparative analysis conducted in the present research, we have uncovered substantial differences in the targets for human development, the development of labour potential and strategic management of human resources and concluded that the application of the theory of human development substantially enric
俄罗斯的Abstract:完成的工作重点是研究人力资源战略管理的理论基础、方法和实践。该专题还研究了劳动和人类潜力的发展。一方面,劳动和人类潜力的发展进程与另一方面的人力战略管理问题之间存在联系。详细研究了人力和劳动能力发展、战略和操作管理人类资源的目标和目标。研究了教育在人类资源战略管理和人类潜力复制方面的作用。系统比较分析显示,“人力潜力”、“劳动潜力”和“人力资源战略管理”之间存在重大差异,需要依赖现代人类发展理论,这极大地丰富了人类资源管理的理论概念基础。然而,只要以灵活的方法和人类发展理论的基本概念为基础来保护人类资源的管理,就可以确保其扩大再生产和提高劳动效率。突出了有前途的研究领域,并在几个方面进行了开发。首先,在人类资源的战略管理领域。第二,在改进人类能力发展理论和劳动能力利用实践方面。此外,关于社会和经济政策协作的研究建议也有科学依据,旨在制定切实可行的建议,以改进有效管理人力资源的战略。英语Abstract:《理论基础》、《媒介》和《人类资源管理手册》的初稿。在《巨人研究》的框架中,我们发现了拉博和人类的发展。我们对拉伯和人类发展的概念有疑问,在一个手臂上,在另一个手臂上有问题的人类资源管理。我们为人类和拉博的发展、strategic和operationic管理人类资源。Moreover,我们在人类资源管理和人类开发中探索了教育的角色。基于on the analysis systems and比较conducted in the present research we have未揭露substantial differences in the targets for human development, the development of劳工potential and strategic management of human resources and conclusion that the应用程序of the theory of human development substantially enriches the theoretical and conceptual foundation for strategic human资源管理。在另一个人的手中,经济和经济管理在软实力环境下与人类发展理论的推广合作。《七道历险记》、《人类资源开发手册》、《人类发展理论》和《拉伯工具手册》等。Moreover,我们有一个完整的科学项目来帮助开发人类资源管理的人类资源。
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引用次数: 0
Towards Eurosclerosis: Will Poland Escape? 走向欧洲硬化症:波兰能逃脱吗?
Pub Date : 2014-02-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.12106
H. Ingham, M. Ingham
type="main" xml:id="twec12106-abs-0001"> The economic crisis has exacted a heavy price on labour markets throughout the world and raised serious questions about the ability of the flexicurity policies to deal with the consequences. In this regard, the experience of Poland with its more flexible approach and relative success in weathering the storm is notable. Shortly before the tumult erupted, the country witnessed a dramatic decline in its unemployment rate from one of the highest in the EU-27 to a figure below the average. However, this turnaround was apparently driven by amendments to the country's Labour Code, which generated an enormous increase in temporary working. Using consecutive annual panels from the Labour Force Survey, a strong link between this development and the fall in unemployment is identified. A multinomial logit model reveals that the flows were most heavily concentrated among males, young workers of both sexes and the less well educated. There is also evidence that fixed-term work lured previously discouraged individuals back into the labour market. However, the requirement that Poland aligns its temporary employment legislation with that of the EU could conceivably lead to at least a partial reversal of fortune.
经济危机使世界各地的劳动力市场付出了沉重的代价,并对灵活政策应对后果的能力提出了严重的质疑。在这方面,波兰的经验值得注意,它采取了更为灵活的方法,在抵御风暴方面取得了相对的成功。在骚乱爆发前不久,该国的失业率急剧下降,从欧盟27国中最高的国家之一降至平均水平以下。然而,这一转变显然是由该国《劳动法》的修订推动的,该修订导致临时工作大幅增加。使用连续的年度劳动力调查小组,这种发展与失业率下降之间存在密切联系。一个多项逻辑模型显示,劳动力流动主要集中在男性、男女青年工人和受教育程度较低的人群中。还有证据表明,固定期限的工作吸引了以前不愿工作的人重返劳动力市场。然而,要求波兰将其临时就业立法与欧盟保持一致的要求,可能会导致至少部分的命运逆转。
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引用次数: 4
Implementation of Activation Works in Slovakia. Evaluation and Recommendations for Policy Change: Final Report 在斯洛伐克实施活化工程。政策改变的评估和建议:最后报告
Pub Date : 2013-12-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2405808
Lucia Mýtna Kureková, Andrej Salner, Michaela Farenzenova
This report evaluates implementation of Activation Works – a key mainstream labor market policy measure implemented in Slovakia. The main focus is on its specific effects on Roma facing social exclusion. The key message is that Activation Works are strongly embedded in and impact local socio-economies. They increase the income of participants and provide labor services to municipal governments at no direct cost but also have a number of other effects. The measure is not very effective at improving the chances of participants to gain sustainable employment. There are wider effects – benefits and costs – to both participants and other stakeholders. These should be taken into account in analyses and decisions on Activation Works. Importantly, Activation Works fulfill a social policy function, which goes beyond employment creation per se. They serve as an important social policy instrument for people in poverty, with low education and other characteristics of exclusion. Roma are generally highly overrepresented in this group.
本报告评估了激活工程的实施情况,这是斯洛伐克实施的一项关键的主流劳动力市场政策措施。重点是对面临社会排斥的罗姆人的具体影响。关键信息是,激活工程深深植根于并影响着当地的社会经济。它们增加了参与者的收入,并在没有直接成本的情况下为市政府提供了劳动力服务,而且还具有许多其他效果。该措施在提高参与者获得可持续就业的机会方面不是很有效。对参与者和其他利益相关者都有更广泛的影响——收益和成本。在分析和决定活化工程时,应考虑到这些因素。重要的是,激活工程履行了一项社会政策功能,它超越了创造就业本身。它们是受教育程度低和具有其他排斥特征的贫困人口的重要社会政策工具。罗姆人在这一群体中的比例普遍过高。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
ERN: Institutions & the Labor Market (Topic)
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