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Textual Information and IPO Underpricing: A Machine Learning Approach 文本信息与IPO定价:一种机器学习方法
Pub Date : 2023-03-14 DOI: 10.3905/jfds.2023.1.121
Apostolos G. Katsafados, Ion Androutsopoulos, Ilias Chalkidis, Manos Fergadiotis, George N. Leledakis, Emmanouil G. Pyrgiotakis
This study examines the predictive power of textual information from S-1 filings in explaining initial public offering (IPO) underpricing. The authors’ approach differs from previous research because they utilize several machine learning algorithms to predict whether an IPO will be underpriced or not, as well as the magnitude of the underpricing. Using a sample of 2,481 US IPOs, they find that textual information can effectively complement financial variables in terms of prediction accuracy because models that use both sources of data produce more accurate estimates. In particular, the model with the best performance using only financial variables achieves 67.5% accuracy whereas the best model with both textual and financial data appears a substantial improvement (6.1%). Also, the use of sophisticated machine learning models drives an increase in the predictive accuracy compared to the traditional logistic regression model (2.5%). The authors attribute the findings to the fact that textual information can reduce the ex ante valuation uncertainty of IPO firms. Finally, they create a portfolio of IPOs based on the out-of-sample machine learning predictions, which remarkably achieves 27.90% average returns. Their portfolio achieves extraordinary abnormal returns in various time dimensions (both in the short and long run), achieving up to 30% better yield than the benchmark.
本研究考察了S-1文件文本信息在解释首次公开发行(IPO)定价过低中的预测能力。作者的方法与之前的研究不同,因为他们使用了几种机器学习算法来预测IPO是否会被低估,以及低估的程度。他们以2481宗美国ipo为样本,发现在预测准确性方面,文本信息可以有效地补充财务变量,因为同时使用这两种数据来源的模型会产生更准确的估计。特别是,仅使用金融变量的最佳模型达到了67.5%的准确率,而同时使用文本和财务数据的最佳模型则有了实质性的改进(6.1%)。此外,与传统的逻辑回归模型(2.5%)相比,使用复杂的机器学习模型可以提高预测精度。作者将这一发现归因于文本信息可以降低IPO公司事前估值的不确定性。最后,他们根据样本外机器学习预测创建了一个ipo投资组合,平均回报率达到了27.90%。他们的投资组合在不同的时间维度(包括短期和长期)都实现了非凡的异常回报,比基准收益率高出30%。
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引用次数: 4
Advances of Machine Learning Approaches for Financial Decision Making and Time-Series Analysis: A Panel Discussion 机器学习方法在金融决策和时间序列分析中的进展:小组讨论
Pub Date : 2023-03-14 DOI: 10.3905/jfds.2023.1.123
Nino Antulov-Fantulin, Petter N. Kolm
Advances in machine learning (ML) are having profound influence on many fields. In this article, the authors present a curated version of a panel discussion that they moderated at Applied Machine Learning Days 2022 on the impact of recent advancements in ML on decision making, data-driven analysis, and time-series modeling in finance. The panel consisted of industry and academic panelists in the field of finance and ML: Robert Almgren, Matthew Dixon, Lisa Huang, Fabrizio Lillo, Mathieu Rosenbaum, and Nicholas Westray. In the discussions with the panelists, the authors focused on (1) the recent developments of deep learning such as transformer and physics-informed neural networks, (2) common misconceptions and challenges in applying ML in finance, and (3) opportunities and new research directions.
机器学习(ML)的进步正在对许多领域产生深远的影响。在本文中,作者介绍了他们在2022年应用机器学习日主持的小组讨论的策划版本,讨论了机器学习的最新进展对金融决策、数据驱动分析和时间序列建模的影响。该小组由金融和ML领域的行业和学术小组成员组成:Robert Almgren, Matthew Dixon, Lisa Huang, Fabrizio Lillo, Mathieu Rosenbaum和Nicholas Westray。在与小组成员的讨论中,作者集中讨论了(1)深度学习的最新发展,如变压器和物理信息神经网络,(2)在金融中应用ML的常见误解和挑战,以及(3)机遇和新的研究方向。
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引用次数: 0
A Causal Analysis of Market Contagion: A Double Machine Learning Approach 市场传染的因果分析:双重机器学习方法
Pub Date : 2023-03-14 DOI: 10.3905/jfds.2023.1.122
Joseph Simonian
Making reliable causal inferences is integral to both explaining past events and forecasting the future. Although there are various theories of economic causality, there has not yet been a wide adoption of machine learning techniques for causal inference within finance. One recently developed framework, double machine learning, is an approach to causal inference that is specifically designed to correct for bias in statistical analysis. In doing so, it allows for a more precise evaluation of treatment effects in the presence of confounders. In this article, the author uses double machine learning to study market contagion. He considers the treatment variable to be the weekly return of the S&P 500 Index below a specific threshold and the outcome to be the weekly return in a single major non-US market. In analyzing each non-US market, the other non-US markets under consideration are used as confounders. The author presents two case studies. In the first, outcomes are observed in the same week as the treatment is observed and, in the second, in the week after. His results show that, in the first case study, sizable and statistically significant contagion effects are observed but somewhat diluted due to the presence of confounders. In contrast, in the second case study, more ambiguous contagion effects are observed and the level of statistical significance is measurably lower than those observed in the first case study, indicating that contagion effects are most clearly transmitted in the same week that the dislocation in the S&P 500 occurs.
做出可靠的因果推论对于解释过去的事件和预测未来都是不可或缺的。尽管有各种各样的经济因果关系理论,但尚未广泛采用机器学习技术在金融领域进行因果推理。最近开发的一个框架,双机器学习,是一种因果推理的方法,专门用于纠正统计分析中的偏差。这样,在存在混杂因素的情况下,它可以更精确地评估治疗效果。在本文中,作者使用双机器学习来研究市场传染。他认为,处理变量是标准普尔500指数(S&P 500 Index)低于某一特定阈值的周收益率,而结果是一个非美国主要市场的周收益率。在分析每个非美国市场时,考虑的其他非美国市场被用作混杂因素。作者提出了两个案例研究。在第一种情况下,在观察治疗的同一周观察结果,在第二种情况下,在治疗后的一周观察结果。他的结果表明,在第一个案例研究中,观察到相当大的和统计上显著的传染效应,但由于混杂因素的存在而有所稀释。相比之下,在第二个案例研究中,观察到更模糊的传染效应,统计显著性水平明显低于第一个案例研究中观察到的水平,这表明传染效应在标准普尔500指数出现混乱的同一周内传播得最清楚。
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引用次数: 0
A Deep Trend-Following Trading Strategy for Equity Markets 股票市场的深度趋势跟踪交易策略
Pub Date : 2023-03-09 DOI: 10.3905/jfds.2023.1.120
P. Eggebrecht, E. Lütkebohmert
In this article, the authors present a new deep trend-following strategy that selectively buys constituents of the S&P 500 Index that are estimated to be upward trending. Therefore, they construct a binary momentum indicator based on a recursive algorithm and then train a convolutional neural network combined with a long short-term memory model to classify periods that are defined as upward trends. The strategy, which can be used as an alternative to traditional quantitative momentum ranking models, generates returns up to 27.3% per annum over the out-of-sample period from January 2010 to December 2019 and achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.3 after accounting for transaction costs on daily data. The authors show that volatility scaling can further increase the risk–return profile and lower the maximum drawdown of the strategy.
在本文中,作者提出了一种新的深度趋势跟踪策略,即有选择地购买标准普尔500指数中估计有上升趋势的成分股。因此,他们基于递归算法构建二元动量指标,然后结合长短期记忆模型训练卷积神经网络,对定义为上升趋势的时期进行分类。该策略可以作为传统定量动量排名模型的替代方案,在2010年1月至2019年12月的样本外期间,每年的回报率高达27.3%,在考虑日常数据的交易成本后,夏普比率达到1.3。研究表明,波动率缩放可以进一步提高风险收益曲线,降低策略的最大回调。
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引用次数: 1
Meta-Labeling: Calibration and Position Sizing 元标记:校准和位置大小
Pub Date : 2023-03-08 DOI: 10.3905/jfds.2023.1.119
Michael Meyer, Illya Barziy, J. Joubert
Meta-labeling is a recently developed tool for determining the position size of a trade. It involves applying a secondary model to produce an output that can be interpreted as the estimated probability of a profitable trade, which can then be used to size positions. Before sizing the position, probability calibration can be applied to bring the model’s estimates closer to true posterior probabilities. This article investigates the use of these estimated probabilities, both uncalibrated and calibrated, in six position sizing algorithms. The algorithms used in this article include established methods used in practice and variations thereon, as well as a novel method called sigmoid optimal position sizing. The position sizing methods are evaluated and compared using strategy metrics such as the Sharpe ratio and maximum drawdown. The results indicate that the performance of fixed position sizing methods is significantly improved by calibration, whereas methods that estimate their functions from the training data do not gain any significant advantage from probability calibration.
元标签是最近开发的一种确定交易头寸规模的工具。它涉及到应用一个二级模型来产生一个输出,这个输出可以被解释为一笔盈利交易的估计概率,然后可以用来确定头寸的大小。在确定位置大小之前,可以应用概率校准使模型的估计更接近真实的后验概率。本文研究了这些估计概率的使用,包括未校准和校准,在六个位置大小算法。本文中使用的算法包括在实践中使用的既定方法及其变体,以及一种称为s形最优位置大小的新方法。位置的大小方法进行评估和比较,使用战略指标,如夏普比率和最大收缩。结果表明,校正后的定位定尺方法的性能得到显著提高,而根据训练数据估计其函数的方法在概率校正后没有明显的优势。
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引用次数: 0
Diversified Spectral Portfolios: An Unsupervised Learning Approach to Diversification 多元光谱投资组合:一种非监督学习的多元化方法
Pub Date : 2023-03-07 DOI: 10.3905/jfds.2023.1.118
Francisco A. Ibanez
The question of how to diversify an investment portfolio is one with many possible answers. Over the past couple of years, the industry and academic literature have been shifting focus from an asset-driven answer to a factor-driven one, sparking special interest in the use of implicit factors identified through unsupervised learning. However, issues around the stability and implementation of these, in the context of diversification, have left a gap between what is an academic exercise and what is an implementable methodology. This article aims to fill this gap by presenting a diversification-focused portfolio construction methodology that takes advantage of singular value decomposition to identify implicit factors and uses hierarchical agglomerative clustering to address some of the challenges surrounding its implementation. In out-of-sample Monte Carlo simulations, this methodology can provide better risk-adjusted performance than other commonly used portfolio diversification approaches.
如何使投资组合多样化的问题有很多可能的答案。在过去的几年里,行业和学术文献已经将焦点从资产驱动的答案转移到因素驱动的答案,这引发了人们对使用通过无监督学习识别的隐含因素的特殊兴趣。但是,在多样化的背景下,围绕这些方法的稳定性和执行的问题在什么是学术实践和什么是可执行的方法之间留下了差距。本文旨在通过提出一种以多元化为重点的投资组合构建方法来填补这一空白,该方法利用奇异值分解来识别隐含因素,并使用分层聚集聚类来解决围绕其实现的一些挑战。在样本外蒙特卡罗模拟中,该方法可以提供比其他常用的投资组合分散方法更好的风险调整绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Spatio-Temporal Momentum: Jointly Learning Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Strategies 时空动量:时间序列与横截面策略的联合学习
Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2302.10175
Wee Ling Tan, S. Roberts, S. Zohren
The authors introduce spatio-temporal momentum strategies, a class of models that unify both time-series and cross-sectional momentum strategies by trading assets based on their cross-sectional momentum features over time. Although both time-series and cross-sectional momentum strategies are designed to systematically capture momentum risk premiums, these strategies are regarded as distinct implementations and do not consider the concurrent relationship and predictability between temporal and cross-sectional momentum features of different assets. They model spatio-temporal momentum with neural networks of varying complexities and demonstrate that a simple neural network with only a single fully connected layer learns to simultaneously generate trading signals for all assets in a portfolio by incorporating both their time-series and cross-sectional momentum features. Back testing on portfolios of 46 actively traded US equities and 12 equity index futures contracts, they demonstrate that the model is able to retain its performance over benchmarks in the presence of high transaction costs of up to 5–10 basis points. In particular, they find that the model when coupled with least absolute shrinkage and turnover regularization results in the best performance over various transaction cost scenarios.
作者介绍了时空动量策略,这是一类统一时间序列和横截面动量策略的模型,通过基于资产随时间的横截面动量特征进行交易。虽然时间序列动量策略和横截面动量策略都是为了系统地捕捉动量风险溢价而设计的,但这些策略被视为不同的实现,没有考虑不同资产的时间和横截面动量特征之间的并发关系和可预测性。他们用不同复杂性的神经网络模拟时空动量,并证明了一个只有一个完全连接层的简单神经网络,通过结合时间序列和横截面动量特征,学会同时为投资组合中的所有资产生成交易信号。他们对46只交易活跃的美国股票和12只股指期货合约的投资组合进行了回测,结果表明,在交易成本高达5-10个基点的情况下,该模型仍能保持相对于基准的表现。特别是,他们发现当模型与最小的绝对收缩和周转正则化相结合时,在各种交易成本场景下的性能最好。
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引用次数: 6
View Fusion Vis-à-Vis a Bayesian Interpretation of Black–Litterman for Portfolio Allocation View Fusion Vis-à-Vis投资组合配置的Black-Litterman贝叶斯解释
Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.3905/jfds.2023.1.132
Trent Spears, S. Zohren, S. Roberts
The Black–Litterman model extends the framework of the Markowitz modern portfolio theory to incorporate investor views. The authors consider a case in which multiple view estimates, including uncertainties, are given for the same underlying subset of assets at a point in time. This motivates their consideration of data fusion techniques for combining information from multiple sources. In particular, they consider consistency-based methods that yield fused view and uncertainty pairs; such methods are not common to the quantitative finance literature. They show a relevant, modern case of incorporating machine learning model-derived view and uncertainty estimates, and the impact on portfolio allocation, with an example subsuming arbitrage pricing theory. Hence, they show the value of the Black–Litterman model in combination with information fusion and artificial intelligence–grounded prediction methods.
Black-Litterman模型扩展了马科维茨现代投资组合理论的框架,纳入了投资者的观点。作者考虑了一种情况,在这种情况下,多个视图估计,包括不确定性,在一个时间点上为相同的潜在资产子集给出。这促使他们考虑使用数据融合技术来组合来自多个来源的信息。特别是,他们考虑了基于一致性的方法,产生融合的视图和不确定性对;这种方法在定量金融文献中并不常见。他们展示了一个相关的现代案例,结合了机器学习模型衍生的观点和不确定性估计,以及对投资组合配置的影响,其中一个例子包含了套利定价理论。因此,它们显示了Black-Litterman模型与信息融合和基于人工智能的预测方法相结合的价值。
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引用次数: 2
Managing Editor’s Letter 总编辑的信
Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.3905/jfds.2023.5.1.001
F. Fabozzi
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引用次数: 0
The Complexity of Blockchain Risks Simplified and Displayed: Introduction of the Johns Hopkins Blockchain Risk Map 简化和展示区块链风险的复杂性:约翰霍普金斯区块链风险图介绍
Pub Date : 2022-12-17 DOI: 10.3905/jfds.2022.1.117
Jiarui Chen, Qi Tong, H. Verma, Avinash Sharma, A. Dahbura, J. Liew
Blockchains have ushered in the next stage in the evolution of the Internet, transitioning us from Web 2.0 to 3.0. However, given the complex nature of this innovative technology and the inability to clearly measure and properly communicate the risks in blockchains, arguably this murkiness has hampered the development, growth, proper regulation, and, ultimately, the true societal beneficial contributions of blockchains. In an attempt to clear the confusion, the authors propose the Johns Hopkins Blockchain Risk Map. The authors present their risk map prototype, their current multidimensional exhibit of risks across the various stakeholders, and their current modest progress with some data on their current risk measures. The authors are attempting to create a safe space whereby blockchain risks are defined, displayed, debated, researched, fine-tuned, standardized, and freely shared. The authors believe that such a platform would be an ideal mechanism for education, networking, and collaboration for the next generation, specifically those who are underrepresented in the current blockchain development community. By increasing the transparency and debating risk issues in a safe academic environment, the authors hope that this risk map will help move blockchain adoption forward and spur more entrepreneurial activity across this industry. In this article, the authors lay down their initial thoughts and current progress and challenges. Although this article is in no way exhaustive, the authors provide several categorizations of blockchain risks: operational, decentralization, security, social sentiment, investment, and systemic, to name a few.
区块链引领了互联网发展的下一个阶段,将我们从Web 2.0过渡到3.0。然而,鉴于这种创新技术的复杂性,以及无法清楚地衡量和适当地传达区块链中的风险,可以说,这种模糊性阻碍了区块链的发展、增长、适当的监管,并最终阻碍了区块链真正的社会有益贡献。为了消除这种困惑,作者提出了约翰霍普金斯区块链风险图。作者展示了他们的风险图原型,他们当前跨各种利益相关者的多维风险展示,以及他们当前的适度进展,以及他们当前风险度量的一些数据。作者试图创造一个安全的空间,在这个空间里,区块链风险被定义、展示、辩论、研究、微调、标准化和自由共享。作者认为,这样一个平台将是下一代教育、网络和协作的理想机制,特别是那些在当前区块链开发社区中代表性不足的人。通过在安全的学术环境中提高透明度和讨论风险问题,作者希望这张风险图将有助于推动区块链的采用,并在整个行业中激发更多的创业活动。在这篇文章中,作者阐述了他们最初的想法和目前的进展和挑战。虽然这篇文章并不详尽,但作者提供了区块链风险的几种分类:操作,去中心化,安全,社会情绪,投资和系统,仅举几例。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Journal of Financial Data Science
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