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Statistical Analysis of the Yield of Government Bonds Using Econometric Models: Macroeconomic and Investment Aspects 用计量经济模型对政府债券收益率的统计分析:宏观经济和投资方面
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.31521/modecon.v37(2023)-07
V. Zhykharieva
Abstract. Introduction. The yield to maturity of government bonds changes over time and depends on a number of external and internal factors. In recent years, the gap between the yield to maturity of bonds of developed countries and countries with relatively low credit ratings has been increasing. Inflation and the level of central banks key rates are important factors that cause fluctuations in the yield of government securities. The yield of government bonds is affected by the terms to maturity. Taking into account the ratio of yield and risk, the longer the maturity of government bonds, the higher the yield should be. But in practice, this dependence can be different, especially in periods of financial crises. All of the above makes relevant the task of analyzing the variation of yield to maturity of government bonds of different countries at the current stage of economic development, as well as the dependence between yield to maturity and the level of inflation on the examples of certain countries and impact on the yield to maturity of government bonds of central bank key rates. The research used such scientific methods as analysis and synthesis of results, logical-analytical methods, methods of descriptive statistics and econometric models. Purpose. The purpose of the paper are improving the approach to the analysis of the yield to maturity of government bonds of various countries and the analysis of the influence of central bank rates on the level of yield to maturity of government bonds. Results. The yield to maturity of government bonds and the rates of central banks of different countries are analyzed. The inverse relationship between the terms to maturity and the level of yield to maturity of government bonds is shown on the examples of the USA and Ukraine. For different samples, taking into account the level of the credit rating of the countries, the analysis of average yield to maturity, dispersion, standard deviation, range of variation, coefficients of oscillation and variation was performed. A high positive correlation was found between the yield to maturity of government bonds and the level of central bank rates. A regression models analysis of the influence of central bank rates on the yield to maturity of government bonds was performed. The linear regression, logarithmic regression and polynomial regression models were constructed. The most qualitative model was chosen on the basis of the coefficient of determination. Conclusions. It was found that developed countries have low (in some countries in certain periods – negative) central bank rates and a low level of yield to maturity. Countries with low credit ratings have high central bank rates and much higher yields. The examples of the USA and Ukraine show an inverse relationship between the yield to maturity and terms to maturity, which indicates the discrepancy between the level of yield and the risk of government bonds in the conditions of financial crisis. A high coefficien
摘要介绍。政府债券的到期收益率随着时间的推移而变化,这取决于许多外部和内部因素。近年来,发达国家与信用等级相对较低国家债券的到期收益率差距不断扩大。通货膨胀和中央银行的关键利率水平是导致政府证券收益率波动的重要因素。政府债券的收益率受到期日的影响。考虑到收益率与风险的比值,国债期限越长,收益率应该越高。但在实践中,这种依赖可能有所不同,尤其是在金融危机期间。这些都使得以某些国家为例分析当前经济发展阶段不同国家政府债券的到期收益率变化、到期收益率与通货膨胀水平的相关性以及央行关键利率对政府债券到期收益率的影响具有重要意义。本研究运用了结果分析与综合、逻辑分析方法、描述性统计方法和计量经济模型等科学方法。目的。本文的目的是改进各国政府债券到期收益率的分析方法,分析央行利率对政府债券到期收益率水平的影响。结果。分析了各国政府债券的到期收益率和中央银行利率。美国和乌克兰的例子显示了政府债券期限与到期收益率水平之间的反比关系。对于不同的样本,考虑到各国的信用评级水平,进行了平均到期收益率、离散度、标准差、变异范围、振荡系数和变异系数的分析。政府债券到期收益率与中央银行利率水平之间存在高度正相关关系。运用回归模型分析了央行利率对国债到期收益率的影响。建立了线性回归、对数回归和多项式回归模型。根据决定系数选择最定性的模型。结论。研究发现,发达国家的中央银行利率较低(某些国家在某些时期为负),到期收益率也较低。信用评级低的国家央行利率高,收益率也高得多。美国和乌克兰的例子表明,到期收益率与到期期限之间呈反比关系,这表明在金融危机条件下政府债券的收益率水平与风险之间存在差异。整个国家样本的高变异系数表明数据的显著分散。信用评级相对较低、到期收益率较高的国家的平均到期收益率要高得多。低信用等级国家的标准差相差8倍以上,变化幅度相差7倍以上。对于低信用评级和高收益的国家,振荡系数和变异系数也明显更高。这些都表明,对于信用等级高、收益率低的国家,变异较小,人口更均匀,平均值更可靠。线性相关系数表明,政府债券到期收益率与央行利率之间存在足够高的正相关关系。回归分析结果表明,在所有考虑的模型中,央行利率对10年期国债到期收益率的影响用三次多项式回归模型最能描述,其决定系数最大。这种方法分析政府债券收益率的实用价值在于,它可以用来评估各种因素对债券收益率的影响,也可以用来分析某些国家债券收益率指标的动态。
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引用次数: 0
Innovative Methods of Organization of Financial and Logistic Processes at the Enterprise 企业财务与物流流程组织的创新方法
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.31521/modecon.v37(2023)-04
Burkovskaya Alla Burkovskaya
Abstract. Introduction. The essence and concepts of the financial and logistical activities of enterprises are analyzed. The current state of agrarian enterprises in the logistics industry is studied. The main problems of agrarian enterprises and methods of their solution are determined. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyze the current state and prospects for innovative development of the potential of regional enterprises engaged in agricultural production. Results. It has been proven that modern processes at enterprises are outdated, it is necessary to introduce the latest models. One of these is the Big Data model. This model provides for the accumulation of a large amount of data, their clear sorting and structuring, optimization of information flows in the middle of the enterprise and provision of operational information to consumers about the enterprise's products. Conclusions. Improvement of financial and logistics activities, optimization of logistics routes, accurate distribution to customers, effective management can be achieved by using the Big Data model. The development and implementation of innovative methods and models within an agricultural enterprise is impossible without legislative regulation and coordination on the part of the state. Doubts on the part of the management regarding the ease of implementation and the preservation of confidentiality of information about the activities of their enterprises inhibit and support the factors of implementation of the mechanism for the introduction of blockchain technologies among agro-industrial complex enterprises. But the benefits of implementing the Big Data model are available both for business and for society as a whole
摘要介绍。分析了企业财务和物流活动的本质和概念。对农业物流企业的现状进行了研究。确定了农业企业存在的主要问题及解决方法。目的。本文的目的是分析区域农业生产企业创新发展潜力的现状和前景。结果。事实证明,企业的现代流程已经过时,有必要引入最新的模式。其中之一就是大数据模型。这种模式提供了大量数据的积累,清晰的整理和结构,优化企业中间的信息流,向消费者提供企业产品的运营信息。结论。通过使用大数据模型,可以实现财务和物流活动的改进,物流路线的优化,准确的配送给客户,有效的管理。农业企业内部创新方法和模式的发展和实施离不开国家的立法监管和协调。管理层对其企业活动信息的实施难易性和保密性的质疑,抑制和支持了在农工综合体企业中引入区块链技术机制的实施因素。但实施大数据模式的好处对企业和整个社会都是可用的
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引用次数: 0
Modern Aspects of Sustainable Development of Polissya Economic Region 波利西亚经济区可持续发展的现代视角
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.31521/modecon.v37(2023)-01
M. Averkyna
Abstract. Introduction. The strategy of sustainable development is an extremely complex and extensive plan for predicting, preventing and solving problems on which depends the future survival of all living beings. It is quite difficult to operate with global goals without sufficient awareness of what is happening at the regional and local levels. Thus, a problem arises in the study of aspects of sustainable development of a specific economic region of Ukraine with the aim of determining its main properties and ways for improving regional policy. Purpose. Research of the current state of economy, ecology and social trends, definition of the main aspects and development of proposals for ways to improve and accelerate the sustainable development of the Polissya economic district. Results. Polissya economic district is a region where every global goal of sustainable development must be implemented at the local level, because economic sphere, environment, and society need considerable changes. Social sphere is dominated by depressive processes, the environment is constantly polluted by harmful emissions from enterprises and radiation pollution. All this factors directly affect the economy, which has lost its former potential and has focused only on extracting raw materials. The war became a catalyst for large-scale negative tendencies. But despite the factors listed above, Polissya economic district has a great potential in agro-industrial complex, tourism sector, and available renewable energy sources. Conclusions. Sustainable development should be completely supported by local population and government. Also implementation of environmental management system will be strong impulse for responsible and enhanced restoration of the environment, which will directly affect the condition of health of the local population.
摘要介绍。可持续发展战略是一项极其复杂和广泛的计划,用于预测、预防和解决所有生物未来生存所依赖的问题。如果对区域和地方两级正在发生的情况没有足够的认识,就很难实现全球目标。因此,在研究乌克兰某一特定经济区域可持续发展的各个方面,以期确定其主要性质和改进区域政策的途径时,出现了一个问题。目的。研究了波利西亚经济区的经济现状、生态和社会发展趋势,明确了主要方面,并提出了改善和加快波利西亚经济区可持续发展的建议。结果。波利西亚经济区是一个必须在地方一级实施可持续发展的全球目标的区域,因为经济领域、环境和社会需要相当大的变化。社会领域被压抑的进程所主导,环境不断受到企业有害排放物和辐射污染的污染。所有这些因素都直接影响到经济,它已经失去了以前的潜力,只专注于开采原材料。这场战争成为大规模消极倾向的催化剂。但是,尽管存在上述因素,波利西亚经济区在农工综合体、旅游业和可再生能源方面具有巨大的潜力。结论。可持续发展应该得到当地民众和政府的全力支持。此外,环境管理体系的实施将有力地推动环境的负责任和加强恢复,这将直接影响到当地居民的健康状况。
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引用次数: 0
Reasons for the Growth of Foreign Labor Migration 外来劳动力迁移增长的原因
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.31521/modecon.v37(2023)-12
O. Samborska
Abstract. Introduction. In the conditions of intensive migrations, the need to regulate such processes is increasing, there is a need to use the positive potential of labor migrations for the purpose of development, minimizing negative consequences, ensuring the rights and freedoms of migrants. That is why reducing migration should be one of the priority tasks of the country's state migration policy. As a result of the fact that Ukraine is at the same time the country of origin, destination and transit of migrants, the territory of migration flows of different characteristics, different directions and different scales, ensuring state regulation in the field of migration is a complex task, the solution of which requires a complex, systematic approach, adequate funding, personnel and scientific software. The modern migration processes taking place in Ukraine are influenced by several important factors, which turned out to be insufficiently decisive and consistent, the promotion of European and Euro-Atlantic integration, in particular, the acquisition of a visa-free regime with the European Union. The migration experience and extensive networks formed as a result of the long-term participation of Ukrainians in migrations are a negative process for the socioeconomic development of the country. Purpose. The desire of Ukrainians to improve their material situation is always a motive for migration, directly economic, both within the country and abroad. Since income from employment is the main component of financial status, labor migration is most characteristic of residents of low-wage countries. Today, it is very important to set the right vector in the direction of preserving and using the labor potential of Ukraine, for the development and uplifting of the economy as a whole. Results. Study of external migration of labor potential and determination of the consequences of social and psychological stress in families. To draw parallels between the level of actual unemployment of Ukrainians and changes in the real income of their families, as one of the reasons for the increase in external labor migration of the population. Conclusions. The importance of the implementation of direct functional duties of state authorities: promoting the creation of new jobs for the unemployed, preventing the mass exodus of young people and the able-bodied population, controlling and regulating the demographic crisis, combating unregulated migration.
摘要介绍。在大量移徙的情况下,管制这种进程的必要性日益增加,有必要利用劳工移徙的积极潜力来促进发展,尽量减少消极后果,确保移徙者的权利和自由。这就是为什么减少移民应该成为国家移民政策的优先任务之一。由于乌克兰同时是移民的原籍国、目的地国和过境国,移民流动的领土具有不同的特点、不同的方向和不同的规模,因此确保移民领域的国家监管是一项复杂的任务,解决这一问题需要复杂的系统方法、充足的资金、人员和科学软件。乌克兰正在发生的现代移徙进程受到几个重要因素的影响,这些因素被证明是不够决定性和一致性的,即促进欧洲和欧洲-大西洋一体化,特别是与欧洲联盟达成免签证制度。由于乌克兰人长期参与移徙而形成的移徙经验和广泛的网络对该国的社会经济发展是一个消极的过程。目的。乌克兰人改善其物质状况的愿望始终是在国内和国外进行直接经济移民的动机。由于就业收入是经济状况的主要组成部分,劳动力迁移是低工资国家居民最具特征的。今天,为维护和利用乌克兰的劳动力潜力,发展和提升整个经济,确定正确的方向是非常重要的。结果。研究劳动力的外部迁移潜力,并确定家庭社会和心理压力的后果。将乌克兰人的实际失业水平与其家庭实际收入的变化进行比较,这是乌克兰人口对外劳务移徙增加的原因之一。结论。国家当局履行直接职能的重要性:促进为失业者创造新的就业机会,防止青年和健全人口大量外流,控制和调节人口危机,打击无管制的移徙。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Internal Audit in the Enterprise Management System 内部审计在企业管理体系中的作用
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.31521/modecon.v37(2023)-02
Inna Berhanir
Abstract. Introduction. It has been established that internal audit is one of the types of internal economic control of business entities. The main criteria for the quality of conducting an internal audit as a management function are the efficiency, productivity and cost-effectiveness of the internal audit system. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to reveal the need for internal audit at the enterprise and the peculiarities of its organization. Results. It has been established that internal audit is one of the types of internal economic control of business entities. The main criteria for the quality of conducting an internal audit as a management function are the efficiency, productivity and cost-effectiveness of the internal audit system. The need for the functioning of the internal audit service at the enterprise is substantiated. The peculiarities and methods of its organization are considered, and their positive and negative aspects of internal audit are determined. The content of the concept of "internal audit" and the question of the need for its operation at the enterprise as a tool for improving the efficiency of the accounting system and activities as a whole are revealed. The main stages of internal audit are formulated and a set of qualitative and quantitative parameters for evaluating the effectiveness of the accounting system is proposed, based on the directions of research of individual objects (elements) of the accounting system by means of internal audit. The tasks of the internal audit regarding the evaluation of the efficiency of the enterprise's accounting system have been substantiated and specified. Conclusions. It has been proven that the effectiveness of internal audit at enterprises is determined by the level of its organization. The main objects of the internal audit organization are the creation and organization of the work of the internal audit system, the organization of the work of internal auditors, and the organization of the internal audit process.
摘要介绍。内部审计是企业内部经济控制的一种类型。将内部审计作为一项管理职能进行的质量的主要标准是内部审计系统的效率、生产力和成本效益。目的。本文的目的是揭示企业内部审计的必要性及其组织的特殊性。结果。内部审计是企业内部经济控制的一种类型。将内部审计作为一项管理职能进行的质量的主要标准是内部审计系统的效率、生产力和成本效益。企业内部审计服务发挥作用的必要性得到证实。考虑其组织的特点和方法,确定其内部审计的积极和消极方面。揭示了“内部审计”概念的内容以及企业需要将其作为提高会计制度和整个活动效率的工具的问题。根据内部审计对会计制度的个别对象(要素)的研究方向,制定了内部审计的主要阶段,并提出了一套评价会计制度有效性的定性和定量参数。内部审计在评价企业会计制度效率方面的任务已经具体化和具体化。结论。实践证明,企业内部审计的有效性是由企业的组织层次决定的。内部审计组织的主要目标是创建和组织内部审计制度的工作,组织内部审计人员的工作,组织内部审计过程。
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引用次数: 0
Means of Neutralizing Abusive Behavior in Enterprise Management 企业管理中滥用行为的中和方法
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.31521/modecon.v37(2023)-13
V. Stamat
ial elements, human resources and informational connections in the production process. Leaders in any business must exercise caution in the exercise of their power and refrain from destructive and abusive behavior. In general, a large number of business leaders are tolerant of their employees, but some are not and abuse their power by mistreating their employees. This article is devoted to abusive behavior in management and means of its neutralization. Abusive behavior can be the cause of conflicts, deterioration of communication and decrease in the efficiency of team work. Purpose. The purpose of this article is to research means of neutralizing abusive behavior in enterprise management. The tasks of this article are to determine the general essence of the concepts of "abuse", "abuser", "abusive behavior" and to investigate the concept of abusive behavior in enterprise management and to determine the main ways of solving this problem. Results. The author describes various forms of abusive behavior, such as intimidation, intimidation, manipulation and discrediting, and also considers the main methods of neutralizing abusive behavior, such as the use of psychological techniques, maintaining emotional calm, increasing the level of emotional intelligence and developing leadership skills. It was determined that abuse as a type of psychological manipulation and social influence is carried out with the aim of covertly introducing certain attitudes into the psyche of the person who is the victim of the abuser, which are not the actual needs of the victim. Conclusions. The author proved that abusive behavior in management is a rather negative phenomenon and affects various aspects of the activity of any enterprise. The main task is to detect this behavior in time and to stop it as soon as possible by all existing methods in order to normalize the further activities of the enterprise.
生产过程中的要素、人力资源和信息联系。任何企业的领导者在行使权力时都必须谨慎行事,避免破坏性和滥用行为。总的来说,大量的商业领袖对他们的员工是宽容的,但有些不是,滥用权力,虐待他们的员工。本文对管理中的滥用行为及其中和方法进行了探讨。虐待行为会导致冲突,恶化沟通,降低团队工作效率。目的。本文的目的是研究在企业管理中如何中和滥用行为。本文的任务是确定“虐待”、“施虐者”、“虐待行为”等概念的一般本质,探讨企业管理中的虐待行为概念,并确定解决这一问题的主要途径。结果。作者描述了各种形式的虐待行为,如恐吓,恐吓,操纵和诋毁,并考虑了主要的方法来消除虐待行为,如使用心理技巧,保持情绪平静,提高情商水平和发展领导技能。经确定,作为一种心理操纵和社会影响的虐待行为,其目的是暗中向施虐者的受害者灌输某些并非受害者实际需要的态度。结论。作者证明了管理中的滥用行为是一种相当消极的现象,它影响到任何企业活动的各个方面。主要任务是及时发现这种行为,并通过所有现有的方法尽快停止它,以便使企业的进一步活动正常化。
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引用次数: 0
The Essence and Place of Cryptocurrency in the Financial System 加密货币在金融体系中的本质和地位
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.31521/modecon.v37(2023)-09
M. Kohut
Abstract. Introduction. The history of the emergence of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is analyzed. Basic concepts related to blockchain technology are explained. The main focus is on issues important from an investor's point of view, as well as on technical aspects, including the essence and importance of blockchain technology. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to generalize and systematize the available information about the emergence of cryptocurrencies and analyze their patterns. Results. The specifics of digital assets and the bitcoin exchange rate in 2012-2021 were studied in more detail. It was found that on the cryptocurrency market you can earn (as well as lose) both as a trader and as a so-called cryptocurrency hodlers. A rating of cryptocurrency exchanges was developed according to the following indicators: security, number of crypto currencies, fiat currencies, advantages of the exchange, disadvantages of the exchange. Cryptocurrency exchanges are a central part of the entire digital collection ecosystem today. Currently, there are already several hundred crypto exchanges on the market, which differ in terms of transactions, security levels or listed values. In this article, we have described cryptocurrency as objectively as possible so that you can assess for yourself whether it will be the right form of investment for you. Conclusions. The wide choice of service providers and the fact that digital currencies are a relatively new form of investment means that finding the best place to trade is not easy. The cooperation of international financial conglomerates in the development of blockchain technology will save these enterprises billions of dollars per year and will be able to improve their operations and eliminate errors related to the human factor. Participants in the financial system are forced to propose standards that would apply to each participant in the network without disturbing the established status quo in international markets.
摘要介绍。分析了比特币和其他加密货币的出现历史。解释了区块链技术相关的基本概念。主要关注从投资者的角度来看重要的问题,以及技术方面,包括区块链技术的本质和重要性。目的。本文的目的是概括和系统化有关加密货币出现的可用信息,并分析其模式。结果。更详细地研究了2012-2021年数字资产和比特币汇率的具体情况。人们发现,在加密货币市场上,作为交易者和所谓的加密货币持有人,你既可以赚钱(也可以亏损)。加密货币交易所的评级是根据以下指标制定的:安全性、加密货币数量、法定货币、交易所的优势、交易所的劣势。加密货币交易所是当今整个数字收藏生态系统的核心部分。目前,市场上已经有数百家加密货币交易所,它们在交易、安全级别或上市价值方面各不相同。在本文中,我们尽可能客观地描述了加密货币,以便您可以自己评估它是否适合您的投资形式。结论。服务提供商的广泛选择,以及数字货币是一种相对较新的投资形式这一事实,意味着找到最佳的交易场所并不容易。国际金融集团在区块链技术开发方面的合作每年将为这些企业节省数十亿美元,并将能够改善其运营并消除与人为因素相关的错误。金融体系的参与者被迫提出适用于网络中每个参与者的标准,而不会扰乱国际市场的既定现状。
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引用次数: 0
Service Quality, Trust as a Moderating Variable, Security and Perceived Risk of Purchasing Decisions at Shopee 服务品质、信任作为调节变量、安全性与Shopee购物决策感知风险
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.31521/modecon.v37(2023)-08
M. I. A. M. Ilham Akbar
Abstract. Introduction. Consumers should also carefully consider the purchase of a product online, as online buying and selling cannot be separated from the issue of risk. This phenomenon mainly results from the fact that most transactions between sellers and buyers are conducted over the internet, where fraud, lack of privacy, delivery risk, and lack of quality assurance of goods are commonplace. Purpose. This study aims to obtain empirical evidence by understanding and analyzing the impact of service quality with trust as a moderating variable on purchasing decisions, the impact of service quality on purchasing decisions, the impact of safety on purchasing decisions, and the impact of perceived risk on purchasing decisions at Shopee. This study used a sample of 160 18- year-old male and female residents of South Sumatra who had used the Shopee application-selected using a sampling technique for a specific purpose. The research was analyzed using descriptive statistical methods with data on the frequency of respondents' responses regarding the given variables and Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS). Results. Results of the study indicating that the trust variable significantly moderates the effect of service quality on purchasing decisions, service quality influences a positive effect on purchasing decisions, and security has a positive effect on purchasing decisions. Conclusions. Trust significantly moderates the effect of service quality on purchasing decisions at Shopee. Service quality has a significant effect on purchasing decisions at Shopee. Security has a significant effect on purchasing decisions at Shopee. Perceived risk has a significant effect on purchasing decisions at Shopee.
摘要介绍。消费者也应该仔细考虑在网上购买产品,因为网上买卖离不开风险问题。这种现象主要是由于卖家和买家之间的大多数交易都是在互联网上进行的,在互联网上,欺诈、缺乏隐私、交付风险和缺乏商品质量保证是司空见惯的。目的。本研究旨在了解和分析服务质量对购物决策的影响,以信任为调节变量,服务质量对购买决策的影响,安全对购买决策的影响,感知风险对Shopee购买决策的影响,从而获得经验证据。本研究使用了160名使用Shopee应用程序的南苏门答腊岛18岁男女居民作为样本,采用了特定目的的抽样技术进行选择。该研究使用描述性统计方法进行分析,其中包含有关给定变量和统计产品和服务解决方案(SPSS)的受访者回应频率的数据。结果。研究结果表明,信任变量显著调节服务质量对购买决策的影响,服务质量对购买决策有正向影响,安全感对购买决策有正向影响。结论。信任显著调节Shopee服务品质对购买决策的影响。服务质量对Shopee的购买决策有显著影响。安全对Shopee的购买决策有重要影响。感知风险对Shopee的购买决策有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
Risk Analysis of Supply Chains at an Enterprise 企业供应链的风险分析
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.31521/modecon.v37(2023)-14
Olena Usykova
Abstract. Introduction. The article investigates the issues of the methodology for assessing the impact of external and internal risks on supply chains. The interrelation between the probability of occurrence of a hazardous event and its impact on supply chains is examined. The principal research method is the use of risk maps on the basis of matrix modeling. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to reveal modern approaches towards the methodology of supply chain risk analysis at an enterprise. Results. It has been stated that key risk factors can be controlled through risk monitoring. External and internal risks that may cause shocks and disruptions to the supply chain have been analyzed. It has been determined that the presented approach to risk assessment complements the methodology for risk assessment and monitoring. It has been established that supply chains are exposed to elevated risk, which can be controlled through the use of the risk matrix procedures. It has been proven that the critical risk areas within supply chains are external crises, environmental uncertainty, supply chains relations and production, while the most hazardous risks within supply chains are associated with external conditions beyond the control of supply chain participants. Conclusions. The growing impact of risk on the activity of the enterprise emphasizes the importance of processes that are intended to reduce the probability of supply chain risk. The presented study attracts attention to the process of risk monitoring, which, if neglected, contributes to the catastrophic consequences of the supply chain collapse. Summing up, it is possible to draw the following conclusions. 1. Supply chains are being exposed to high risk, which can be controlled through risk matrix procedures. 2. The conducted analysis has demonstrated that the critical risk areas in supply chains are external crises, environmental uncertainty, supply chain relations and production. 3. The most hazardous risks in supply chains are associated with external conditions that are beyond the control of supply chain participants. 4. Awareness of a risk and the possibility of classifying it on a risk matrix is a considerable aid to a simpler threat assessment, which may prove useful in practice.
摘要介绍。本文研究了评估外部和内部风险对供应链影响的方法问题。研究了危险事件发生的概率及其对供应链的影响之间的相互关系。主要的研究方法是在矩阵建模的基础上运用风险图。目的。本文的目的是揭示企业供应链风险分析方法的现代方法。结果。有人指出,关键的风险因素可以通过风险监测来控制。分析了可能对供应链造成冲击和中断的外部和内部风险。已经确定,所提出的风险评估方法是对风险评估和监测方法的补充。已经确定的是,供应链暴露于风险升高,这可以通过使用风险矩阵程序来控制。事实证明,供应链中的关键风险领域是外部危机、环境不确定性、供应链关系和生产,而供应链中最危险的风险与供应链参与者无法控制的外部条件有关。结论。风险对企业活动的影响越来越大,强调了旨在降低供应链风险概率的过程的重要性。本研究引起了对风险监控过程的关注,如果忽视这一过程,将导致供应链崩溃的灾难性后果。综上所述,可以得出以下结论。1. 供应链面临着高风险,这可以通过风险矩阵程序进行控制。2. 所进行的分析表明,供应链中的关键风险领域是外部危机、环境不确定性、供应链关系和生产。3.供应链中最危险的风险与供应链参与者无法控制的外部条件有关。4. 对风险的认识和在风险矩阵上对其进行分类的可能性对更简单的威胁评估有很大的帮助,这在实践中可能证明是有用的。
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引用次数: 0
Analytical Aspects of Tourism Business Development in the Regional Social and Economic Destination 区域社会经济目的地旅游业务发展分析
Pub Date : 2023-03-20 DOI: 10.31521/modecon.v37(2023)-16
Tetiana Yavorska
Abstract. Introduction. The article considers the analytical aspects of tourism business development in the regional social and economic destination, which are implemented according to the criteria for assessing the qual-ity of components of the tourist product and tourist flows. The deals the market of the tourist ser-vices, which determines the parameters of the aggregate value of the indices of the meso- and lo-cal levels. Results. A comprehensive approach to the assessment of the overall value of the tourist business develop-ment index, which is differentiated by the components of the tourism potential at the meso level, has been developed. The inclusiveness of the local tourism business in the regional social and economic destination is determined. The directions of international cooperation of one country with neighboring countries within the regional blocks of tourism business are singled out. The analytical components modeling of the tourist product in the regional social and economic desti-nation are formed. The system of quantitative and qualitative indicators of tourism business de-velopment in the regional social and economic destination of the country is determined. The scale of tourists served by tour operators and travel agents in Ukraine is analyzed. Conclusions. The mechanism of regulation of the development of tourist business in regional social and eco-nomic destination of market type is developed. For strategic analysis of tourism business devel-opment in a regional social and economic destination, a general concept of its evaluation in terms of a systematic approach and analysis of alternatives has been formed. It is proved that the exist-ing tools for assessing the tourism business are the levers of indirect influence on the state econ-omy. Therefore, taking into account cross-border cooperation in this area will determine the cri-teria for optimal profits from tourism and tourism operators and its effect in regional social and economic destinations.
摘要介绍。本文考虑了区域社会经济目的地旅游业务发展的分析方面,并根据旅游产品和旅游流量组成质量的评估标准实施。本文对旅游服务市场进行了分析,确定了旅游服务市场中、低两级指标的综合价值参数。结果。本文提出了一种综合评价旅游业务发展指数总体价值的方法,该方法在中观层次上通过旅游潜力的组成部分加以区分。确定当地旅游业务在区域社会经济目的地的包容性。挑出一个国家与周边国家在区域旅游业务板块内的国际合作方向。建立了区域社会经济目的地旅游产品的分析成分模型。确定了国家区域社会经济目的地旅游业务发展的定量和定性指标体系。分析了乌克兰旅游经营者和旅行社所服务的游客规模。结论。研究了区域市场型社会经济目的地旅游业务发展的调控机制。对于区域社会经济目的地旅游业务发展的战略分析,形成了以系统方法和备选方案分析进行评价的一般概念。证明了现有的旅游业务评估工具是对国家经济间接影响的杠杆。因此,考虑到这一领域的跨境合作将确定旅游和旅游经营者的最佳利润标准及其对区域社会和经济目的地的影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Modern Economics
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