Politicians, scientists and journalists have aired vastly different assessments of the COVID-19 pandemic, ranging from rather optimistic to very pessimistic ones. In this paper we investigate how narratives conveying different assessments of the pandemic impact economic behavior. In a controlled experiment with incentivized economic games we find that subjects behave more risk averse and less patient when confronted with a pessimistic compared to an optimistic or balanced narrative. Further we find that narratives change subjects' expectations about the pandemic and the stock market. Hence our experiment provides causal evidence for an impact of narratives on fundamental determinants of household behavior.
{"title":"How Optimistic and Pessimistic Narratives About COVID-19 Impact Economic Behavior","authors":"S. Harrs, Lara Marie Müller, B. Rockenbach","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3849035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3849035","url":null,"abstract":"Politicians, scientists and journalists have aired vastly different assessments of the COVID-19 pandemic, ranging from rather optimistic to very pessimistic ones. In this paper we investigate how narratives conveying different assessments of the pandemic impact economic behavior. In a controlled experiment with incentivized economic games we find that subjects behave more risk averse and less patient when confronted with a pessimistic compared to an optimistic or balanced narrative. Further we find that narratives change subjects' expectations about the pandemic and the stock market. Hence our experiment provides causal evidence for an impact of narratives on fundamental determinants of household behavior.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84863978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As of June 12, 2021, the end of the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to be fast approaching. As such, there is now increased debate with respect to the nature of a post-COVID economic recovery. Several financial writers have referenced the Roaring 20s as a historical period that may provide useful lessons. However, a deconstruction of the key economic drivers during the Roaring 20s suggests that this period provides few parallels to the circumstances in 2021. There are two historical periods, however, that do offer useful comparisons: the years 1919 and 1999. Drawing from the lessons from these two years, it seems plausible that a post-COVID recovery may combine a consumer spending rebound that is reminiscent of 1919 with increased speculation in the stock market that is reminiscent of 1999. The paper concludes by encouraging investors to exercise caution, noting that neither the spending rebound in 1919 nor the speculative stock market bubble of 1999 lasted long. Therefore, it seems conceivable that after the initial, post-pandemic euphoria wears off, a similarly painful economic contraction and market correction could soon follow. Should this scenario occur, readers may benefit from considering this possibility and preparing psychologically for the consequences.
{"title":"A Post-COVID Recovery is Unlikely to Resemble the Roaring 20s; The Years 1919 and 1999 Serve as More Insightful Comparisons","authors":"Mark L. Higgins","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3838380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3838380","url":null,"abstract":"As of June 12, 2021, the end of the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to be fast approaching. As such, there is now increased debate with respect to the nature of a post-COVID economic recovery. Several financial writers have referenced the Roaring 20s as a historical period that may provide useful lessons. However, a deconstruction of the key economic drivers during the Roaring 20s suggests that this period provides few parallels to the circumstances in 2021. There are two historical periods, however, that do offer useful comparisons: the years 1919 and 1999. Drawing from the lessons from these two years, it seems plausible that a post-COVID recovery may combine a consumer spending rebound that is reminiscent of 1919 with increased speculation in the stock market that is reminiscent of 1999. The paper concludes by encouraging investors to exercise caution, noting that neither the spending rebound in 1919 nor the speculative stock market bubble of 1999 lasted long. Therefore, it seems conceivable that after the initial, post-pandemic euphoria wears off, a similarly painful economic contraction and market correction could soon follow. Should this scenario occur, readers may benefit from considering this possibility and preparing psychologically for the consequences.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"103 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75362915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-01DOI: 10.3390/ECONOMIES9020069
T. Iverson, E. Barbier
We examine the effectiveness of sub-national actions to control a novel disease, such as COVID-19, in the absence of national policy. Evidence shows that countries where sub-national governments have undertaken unilateral social distancing measures to combat the pandemic with little or no coordination have performed less well in controlling the spread of the disease. We explore analytically whether agreement on a common social distancing policy among sub-national governments, i.e., states or provinces, can lead to a better outcome than if each state or province pursues its own social distancing policy in isolation. A key feature of our model is that it accounts for the inter-jurisdictional spillover effects of each sub-national jurisdiction’s policy choice with respect to social distancing. Our results show that, in the absence of a national mandatory agreement, a sub-national agreement with sufficient coordination of social distancing policy among states yields a more effective and efficient control of a pandemic compared to states choosing policy unilaterally. These findings strongly support calls for greater cooperation among and assistance for sub-national governments to improve the effectiveness of their social distancing efforts in controlling the pandemic.
{"title":"National and Sub-National Social Distancing Responses to COVID-19","authors":"T. Iverson, E. Barbier","doi":"10.3390/ECONOMIES9020069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ECONOMIES9020069","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the effectiveness of sub-national actions to control a novel disease, such as COVID-19, in the absence of national policy. Evidence shows that countries where sub-national governments have undertaken unilateral social distancing measures to combat the pandemic with little or no coordination have performed less well in controlling the spread of the disease. We explore analytically whether agreement on a common social distancing policy among sub-national governments, i.e., states or provinces, can lead to a better outcome than if each state or province pursues its own social distancing policy in isolation. A key feature of our model is that it accounts for the inter-jurisdictional spillover effects of each sub-national jurisdiction’s policy choice with respect to social distancing. Our results show that, in the absence of a national mandatory agreement, a sub-national agreement with sufficient coordination of social distancing policy among states yields a more effective and efficient control of a pandemic compared to states choosing policy unilaterally. These findings strongly support calls for greater cooperation among and assistance for sub-national governments to improve the effectiveness of their social distancing efforts in controlling the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85523476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Building on earlier work by IIED and CCSI, this report reflects on select COVID-related developments that may result in longer-term shifts relevant to land-based investments in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. Our objectives are two-fold. In the short term, monitoring developments can support more effective interventions that anticipate and respond to impacts on the governance of land-based investments. In the medium to longer term, analyzing developments can inform efforts to support inclusive post-COVID-19 economic recovery strategies in low- and middle-income countries. The report draws on our efforts to monitor developments that affect the governance of land-based investments in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Building on a conceptual framework, we tracked developments at three broad levels:• changes in the overall political economy context,• changes in governance systems and regulatory frameworks related to land-based investments, and• developments related to specific land-based investments.
{"title":"COVID-19 and Land-based Investment: Changing Landscapes","authors":"Clarisse Marsac, Nathaniah Jacobs, Tehtena Mebratu-Tsegaye","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3900783","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3900783","url":null,"abstract":"Building on earlier work by IIED and CCSI, this report reflects on select COVID-related developments that may result in longer-term shifts relevant to land-based investments in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. Our objectives are two-fold. In the short term, monitoring developments can support more effective interventions that anticipate and respond to impacts on the governance of land-based investments. In the medium to longer term, analyzing developments can inform efforts to support inclusive post-COVID-19 economic recovery strategies in low- and middle-income countries. The report draws on our efforts to monitor developments that affect the governance of land-based investments in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Building on a conceptual framework, we tracked developments at three broad levels:• changes in the overall political economy context,• changes in governance systems and regulatory frameworks related to land-based investments, and• developments related to specific land-based investments.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"153 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78197656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Compliance with human rights is an important element of health resilience, generating popular legitimacy and trust, legality and legal certainty, and favourable effects for the economy. Crucially, it will save lives when societies will be confronted with new pandemics.Comprehensive, structured and evidence-based assessment of national responses to pandemics for their conformity with human rights is possible. It requires a rigorous methodology. We have developed a model for COVID-19 that can be verified and then adapted to future pandemics by defining those elements of the model that are constant and those that will need to be modified for a new epidemic.A piloting exercise in respect of 17 countries and their performance during the second half of 2020 allows for a set of comparative observations. Most importantly, the pilot study supports the conclusion that strong human rights performance in respect of any category of human rights entails and requires general compliance across all categories of human rights. This conclusion reflects the principle of interdependence and indivisibility of all human rights.A global study of the human rights compatibility of national strategies against COVID-19 in the course of 2021 should be conducted, with a clear objective to produce a generalizable model that can be adapted to future pandemics, through a modular structure that allows for adaptation to the biological and epidemiological specificities of each pathogen and pandemic. Such a model could become a self-assessment tool in addressing national strategies. Importantly, it would generate interaction between different epistemic communities such as epidemiologists, economists, sociologists and psychologists, lawyers and other experts on regulation, and human rights experts. Collaboration between national experts or functionaries in various fields would mainstream well-informed human rights considerations into national strategic decision-making on health emergencies. This would significantly improve health resilience.
{"title":"Health Resilience Requires Rigorous Human Rights Assessment","authors":"M. Scheinin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3909895","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3909895","url":null,"abstract":"Compliance with human rights is an important element of health resilience, generating popular legitimacy and trust, legality and legal certainty, and favourable effects for the economy. Crucially, it will save lives when societies will be confronted with new pandemics.Comprehensive, structured and evidence-based assessment of national responses to pandemics for their conformity with human rights is possible. It requires a rigorous methodology. We have developed a model for COVID-19 that can be verified and then adapted to future pandemics by defining those elements of the model that are constant and those that will need to be modified for a new epidemic.A piloting exercise in respect of 17 countries and their performance during the second half of 2020 allows for a set of comparative observations. Most importantly, the pilot study supports the conclusion that strong human rights performance in respect of any category of human rights entails and requires general compliance across all categories of human rights. This conclusion reflects the principle of interdependence and indivisibility of all human rights.A global study of the human rights compatibility of national strategies against COVID-19 in the course of 2021 should be conducted, with a clear objective to produce a generalizable model that can be adapted to future pandemics, through a modular structure that allows for adaptation to the biological and epidemiological specificities of each pathogen and pandemic. Such a model could become a self-assessment tool in addressing national strategies. Importantly, it would generate interaction between different epistemic communities such as epidemiologists, economists, sociologists and psychologists, lawyers and other experts on regulation, and human rights experts. Collaboration between national experts or functionaries in various fields would mainstream well-informed human rights considerations into national strategic decision-making on health emergencies. This would significantly improve health resilience.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88560468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the effects of China’s One Child Policy on the education and labour market outcomes of women and men born in its wake. We present evidence from a difference-in-difference design that the One Child Policy led to a significant rise in the fraction of both boys and girls who grew up as only-children in the late 1970s and 80s. We then use the policy-induced increase in only-children to estimate the causal effect of growing up as an only-child on education, earnings and occupational choice. Our results indicate substantial positive effects of only-child status for both men and women. In contrast to the typically small quantity-quality trade-offs identified in prior literature, the only-child premium we estimate is large and economically meaningful. We argue that this is consistent with the theory, which allows for non-linearity of the effect of child quantity on quality. We conclude that the One Child Policy contributed considerably to the rise of human capital in urban China since the 1980s.
{"title":"Human Capital and the Only-Child Premium: Evidence from China’s One Child Policy","authors":"Genet Zinabou, Tongtong Hao, Limin Fang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3833075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3833075","url":null,"abstract":"We study the effects of China’s One Child Policy on the education and labour market outcomes of women and men born in its wake. We present evidence from a difference-in-difference design that the One Child Policy led to a significant rise in the fraction of both boys and girls who grew up as only-children in the late 1970s and 80s. We then use the policy-induced increase in only-children to estimate the causal effect of growing up as an only-child on education, earnings and occupational choice. Our results indicate substantial positive effects of only-child status for both men and women. In contrast to the typically small quantity-quality trade-offs identified in prior literature, the only-child premium we estimate is large and economically meaningful. We argue that this is consistent with the theory, which allows for non-linearity of the effect of child quantity on quality. We conclude that the One Child Policy contributed considerably to the rise of human capital in urban China since the 1980s.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87140415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since the early 2000s Rhode Island has been among the states hardest hit by the opioid crisis. In response, the state has made it a priority to expand access to medication-assisted treatment (MAT) for opioid use disorder (OUD), which refers to the use of the FDA-approved medications methadone, buprenorphine, and/or naltrexone in conjunction with behavioral therapy. MAT is strongly supported by scientific evidence and endorsed by US public health officials and yet fails to reach many OUD patients. Using administrative data covering medical treatments and selected health outcomes for more than three-quarters of the Rhode Islanders covered by health insurance from mid-2011 through mid-2019, this report considers MAT’s efficacy in preventing opioid overdoses in Rhode Island and sheds light on the barriers to receiving MAT. The authors find evidence that MAT, as practiced in Rhode Island, appears to reduce the risk of opioid overdose: Among patients who had an initial (nonfatal) overdose, those who had received MAT in the preceding three months were less likely to experience a second overdose. In addition, federal policies that allowed a broader set of health-care providers to prescribe buprenorphine for OUD and enabled each prescriber to treat more patients with that drug are shown to have had some success in expanding the set of patients receiving MAT in Rhode Island.
Unfortunately, we observe significant disparities in access to MAT across different groups within Rhode Island. Among individuals diagnosed with opioid dependence, those living in places with elevated poverty rates are less likely to receive buprenorphine, but they are also somewhat more likely to receive methadone. Because a treatment regimen involving methadone is much less convenient for the patient compared with one involving buprenorphine, ideally patients should have similar access to both drugs. Having Medicaid insurance as opposed to some other form of insurance is associated with a much greater chance of receiving methadone treatment, a finding that supports policies that would incentivize the expansion of Medicaid in states that have not yet done so. Women are somewhat less likely than men to receive either methadone or buprenorphine.
This research demonstrates that recent federal policies helped to increase the number of Rhode Islanders who were prescribed buprenorphine for OUD. Raising patient-number limits enabled select prescribers to serve more patients and expand the total patient pool;however, more people could be helped if more prescribers took full advantage of their prescribing limits. This research and similar findings from other states reveal that the typical buprenorphine prescriber has a caseload that is well below the maximum number of patients they could treat. A separate policy that enabled mid-level practitioners (such as physician assistants) to train to prescribe buprenorphine was also found to draw in new patients, particularly those in high
{"title":"Medication-assisted Treatment for Opioid Use Disorder in Rhode Island: Who Gets Treatment, and Does Treatment Improve Health Outcomes?","authors":"Mary A. Burke, Riley Sullivan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3832299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3832299","url":null,"abstract":"Since the early 2000s Rhode Island has been among the states hardest hit by the opioid crisis. In response, the state has made it a priority to expand access to medication-assisted treatment (MAT) for opioid use disorder (OUD), which refers to the use of the FDA-approved medications methadone, buprenorphine, and/or naltrexone in conjunction with behavioral therapy. MAT is strongly supported by scientific evidence and endorsed by US public health officials and yet fails to reach many OUD patients. Using administrative data covering medical treatments and selected health outcomes for more than three-quarters of the Rhode Islanders covered by health insurance from mid-2011 through mid-2019, this report considers MAT’s efficacy in preventing opioid overdoses in Rhode Island and sheds light on the barriers to receiving MAT. The authors find evidence that MAT, as practiced in Rhode Island, appears to reduce the risk of opioid overdose: Among patients who had an initial (nonfatal) overdose, those who had received MAT in the preceding three months were less likely to experience a second overdose. In addition, federal policies that allowed a broader set of health-care providers to prescribe buprenorphine for OUD and enabled each prescriber to treat more patients with that drug are shown to have had some success in expanding the set of patients receiving MAT in Rhode Island.<br><br>Unfortunately, we observe significant disparities in access to MAT across different groups within Rhode Island. Among individuals diagnosed with opioid dependence, those living in places with elevated poverty rates are less likely to receive buprenorphine, but they are also somewhat more likely to receive methadone. Because a treatment regimen involving methadone is much less convenient for the patient compared with one involving buprenorphine, ideally patients should have similar access to both drugs. Having Medicaid insurance as opposed to some other form of insurance is associated with a much greater chance of receiving methadone treatment, a finding that supports policies that would incentivize the expansion of Medicaid in states that have not yet done so. Women are somewhat less likely than men to receive either methadone or buprenorphine.<br><br>This research demonstrates that recent federal policies helped to increase the number of Rhode Islanders who were prescribed buprenorphine for OUD. Raising patient-number limits enabled select prescribers to serve more patients and expand the total patient pool;however, more people could be helped if more prescribers took full advantage of their prescribing limits. This research and similar findings from other states reveal that the typical buprenorphine prescriber has a caseload that is well below the maximum number of patients they could treat. A separate policy that enabled mid-level practitioners (such as physician assistants) to train to prescribe buprenorphine was also found to draw in new patients, particularly those in high","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"73 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78987545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
While the pandemic and recovery unfold in real time, this article investigates some of the major themes on preparations for the next pandemic. Humanity cannot rely on modern medicine to beat the next ‘disease X’ and the world cannot afford the extortionate health and economic policy interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic again. From the COVID-19 pandemic we learned that the international economic organizations suffered from disaster myopia and that the self-image of the advanced economies is distorted. It also has become apparent that ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ health care was generally practiced while global health care should have been the norm. A discussion on the related issues of rationing, triage and scarcity of health care during a pandemic is urgently needed. All in all, a major global investment project is necessary to reduce the vulnerability to and impact of pandemics. As inequalities to a large extent determine pandemic vulnerability and adjustment of SDGs is necessary.
{"title":"The Political Economy of the Next Pandemic","authors":"Peter A. G. van Bergeijk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3831710","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3831710","url":null,"abstract":"While the pandemic and recovery unfold in real time, this article investigates some of the major themes on preparations for the next pandemic. Humanity cannot rely on modern medicine to beat the next ‘disease X’ and the world cannot afford the extortionate health and economic policy interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic again. From the COVID-19 pandemic we learned that the international economic organizations suffered from disaster myopia and that the self-image of the advanced economies is distorted. It also has become apparent that ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ health care was generally practiced while global health care should have been the norm. A discussion on the related issues of rationing, triage and scarcity of health care during a pandemic is urgently needed. All in all, a major global investment project is necessary to reduce the vulnerability to and impact of pandemics. As inequalities to a large extent determine pandemic vulnerability and adjustment of SDGs is necessary.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"153 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77484609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We are facing an eviction crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic, has sent our economy into a tailspin forcing countless Americans to choose between feeding their families or having a roof over their heads. Many low-income people, especially low-income people of color, are facing an unprecedented economic crisis with tremendous rates of wage reductions and job loss. This has resulted in millions of Americans being unable to pay their full rents, creating the legal grounds for their landlords to evict them. As of early December 2020, more than 19 million individuals lived in households behind on rent, and more than 30 million did not believe they could make next month’s rent payments on time. For renters who are facing eviction and their landlords, the unpaid bills are piling up. Scholars, policymakers, and advocates have increasingly focused on a number of solutions to the eviction crisis including eviction moratoria and rental assistance, concluding that these solutions can stabilize households, especially when combined. Yet, the refrain is almost always that investing in national rental assistance programs will be expensive. However, few analysts have emphasized the financial costs of inaction. This paper presents an analysis that estimates the Return on Investment (ROI) of a number of different pandemic-related rental assistance programs by comparing the costs of rental assistance with the social costs of homelessness and displacement. As seen in Figure 1, this piece finds that rental assistance has a positive ROI of between 229%-473%. These ROI values point to the conclusion that failing to invest in rental assistance will cost dramatically more than making the investment now. The ROI analysis finds that rental assistance stabilizes both tenants and landlords, preserves neighborhoods, and protects government budgets over the long-term. More broadly the returns on rental assistance argue for a re-imagination of the eviction system. The conclusion that the estimated benefits of rental assistance eclipse the estimated costs of providing the funds by three or four times, suggests that rental assistance should supplant eviction as the social remedy for the inability to pay rent. In other words, keeping people in their homes during this pandemic and beyond is not only the right thing to do, economically it is the smart thing to do.
{"title":"The Return on Investment of Pandemic Rental Assistance: Modeling a Rare Win-Win-Win","authors":"Sam Gilman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3829307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3829307","url":null,"abstract":"We are facing an eviction crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic, has sent our economy into a tailspin forcing countless Americans to choose between feeding their families or having a roof over their heads. Many low-income people, especially low-income people of color, are facing an unprecedented economic crisis with tremendous rates of wage reductions and job loss. This has resulted in millions of Americans being unable to pay their full rents, creating the legal grounds for their landlords to evict them. As of early December 2020, more than 19 million individuals lived in households behind on rent, and more than 30 million did not believe they could make next month’s rent payments on time. For renters who are facing eviction and their landlords, the unpaid bills are piling up. Scholars, policymakers, and advocates have increasingly focused on a number of solutions to the eviction crisis including eviction moratoria and rental assistance, concluding that these solutions can stabilize households, especially when combined. Yet, the refrain is almost always that investing in national rental assistance programs will be expensive. However, few analysts have emphasized the financial costs of inaction. This paper presents an analysis that estimates the Return on Investment (ROI) of a number of different pandemic-related rental assistance programs by comparing the costs of rental assistance with the social costs of homelessness and displacement. As seen in Figure 1, this piece finds that rental assistance has a positive ROI of between 229%-473%. These ROI values point to the conclusion that failing to invest in rental assistance will cost dramatically more than making the investment now. The ROI analysis finds that rental assistance stabilizes both tenants and landlords, preserves neighborhoods, and protects government budgets over the long-term. More broadly the returns on rental assistance argue for a re-imagination of the eviction system. The conclusion that the estimated benefits of rental assistance eclipse the estimated costs of providing the funds by three or four times, suggests that rental assistance should supplant eviction as the social remedy for the inability to pay rent. In other words, keeping people in their homes during this pandemic and beyond is not only the right thing to do, economically it is the smart thing to do.<br>","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76076040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-12DOI: 10.21744/IRJMIS.V8N3.1471
Rodrigo Barra Novoa
This article offers a first approximation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Chilean macro and microeconomic environment, using representative data from the latest formal surveys in the country. Here, the number of active firms plummeted in part due to the social crisis that began on October 18, 2019, and losses were felt in most industries due to the pandemic crisis that continues to generate job losses and low business profitability. These first results have implications for central bank policies and can predict medium and medium-term projections, especially for the country's economic and social growth.
{"title":"Macro and Microeconomic Analysis of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chile and the Projections of the Central Bank's","authors":"Rodrigo Barra Novoa","doi":"10.21744/IRJMIS.V8N3.1471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21744/IRJMIS.V8N3.1471","url":null,"abstract":"This article offers a first approximation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Chilean macro and microeconomic environment, using representative data from the latest formal surveys in the country. Here, the number of active firms plummeted in part due to the social crisis that began on October 18, 2019, and losses were felt in most industries due to the pandemic crisis that continues to generate job losses and low business profitability. These first results have implications for central bank policies and can predict medium and medium-term projections, especially for the country's economic and social growth.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"360 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78973775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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