This study continues the author's examination and forecasts as to the impact of Covid-19 on the US credit cycle after one and a half years since the pandemic first began. We explore the enormous build-up of global debt even before the pandemic commenced and the subsequent record debt expansion through mid-2021. New debt peaks, especially for nonfinancial corporate debt, are analyzed as to their potential impact on future default rates and the implications for the US credit markets once again starting a new benign cycle in a continuing low interest rate environment. We ask whether the spectacular success of the US central bank and its monetary policy and secondary-market purchases has also promoted potentially destructive unforeseen consequences for debt rated BBB and below. Large- and small-firm defaults and bankruptcies in both 2020 and 2021 are compared, and our expectations about those firms' solvency status once the government and central bank supports diminish and are eliminated are examined. Finally, we introduce the concept of global zombie firms and suggest that this growing phenomenon be analyzed more robustly and critically with new criteria and empirical analysis.
{"title":"COVID-19 and the Credit Cycle: 2020 Revisited and 2021 Outlook","authors":"E. Altman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3908070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3908070","url":null,"abstract":"This study continues the author's examination and forecasts as to the impact of Covid-19 on the US credit cycle after one and a half years since the pandemic first began. We explore the enormous build-up of global debt even before the pandemic commenced and the subsequent record debt expansion through mid-2021. New debt peaks, especially for nonfinancial corporate debt, are analyzed as to their potential impact on future default rates and the implications for the US credit markets once again starting a new benign cycle in a continuing low interest rate environment. We ask whether the spectacular success of the US central bank and its monetary policy and secondary-market purchases has also promoted potentially destructive unforeseen consequences for debt rated BBB and below. Large- and small-firm defaults and bankruptcies in both 2020 and 2021 are compared, and our expectations about those firms' solvency status once the government and central bank supports diminish and are eliminated are examined. Finally, we introduce the concept of global zombie firms and suggest that this growing phenomenon be analyzed more robustly and critically with new criteria and empirical analysis.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"108 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83647247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Globally, it has been occurred number of pandemics over the decades and some of them have been recurring still. At present, globe is experiencing COVID-19 which is come under coronavirus and wide spread of the virus with number of variants already carried off a considerable amount of lives. In such a situation, World Health Organization announced a global emergency condition and this review study comprehensively examines the impact of COVID-19 on GDP, inflation, stock market, poverty, employment and tourism in Sri Lankan context. This paper graphically explores that agriculture, industry and services sectors were affected harshly during pandemic. Moreover, COVID-19 adversely affected on tourism sector, construction, transport, hotel and apparel sectors while enhancing unemployment rate as a whole. Due to job lost, unemployment rate was increased while increasing the poverty line as well. More specifically this review identified three main factors that affect on fluctuation of inflation rate throughout previous studies and also valid and timely evidences. Accordingly, it could be explored that there is an additional inflationary pressure in Sri Lankan economy. Apart from that, Colombo stock Exchange in Sri Lanka is financially unstable due to COVID-19 outbreak. Thus, country’s economic condition is threaten at a high risk. In that case, necessary and successful movements must be taken place to move ahead as a one nation during these pandemic days and overcome economic issues.
{"title":"The Peculiarities of Economic Crisis Due to COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Sri Lanka","authors":"Asela Tennakoon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3907260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3907260","url":null,"abstract":"Globally, it has been occurred number of pandemics over the decades and some of them have been recurring still. At present, globe is experiencing COVID-19 which is come under coronavirus and wide spread of the virus with number of variants already carried off a considerable amount of lives. In such a situation, World Health Organization announced a global emergency condition and this review study comprehensively examines the impact of COVID-19 on GDP, inflation, stock market, poverty, employment and tourism in Sri Lankan context. This paper graphically explores that agriculture, industry and services sectors were affected harshly during pandemic. Moreover, COVID-19 adversely affected on tourism sector, construction, transport, hotel and apparel sectors while enhancing unemployment rate as a whole. Due to job lost, unemployment rate was increased while increasing the poverty line as well. More specifically this review identified three main factors that affect on fluctuation of inflation rate throughout previous studies and also valid and timely evidences. Accordingly, it could be explored that there is an additional inflationary pressure in Sri Lankan economy. Apart from that, Colombo stock Exchange in Sri Lanka is financially unstable due to COVID-19 outbreak. Thus, country’s economic condition is threaten at a high risk. In that case, necessary and successful movements must be taken place to move ahead as a one nation during these pandemic days and overcome economic issues.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84020753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
COVID-19 is provoking a major reorientation of American and European foreign policy. At the heart of this is their changing relationship with China. The pandemic has given rise to fears of a new Cold War, which are based on out-of-date assumptions and a misunderstanding of China’s motivations. Unlike the USSR, it neither seeks hegemony, nor aspires to evangelise and export its political and economic system. It acts out of self-interest and seeks to become both a model nation for developing countries to emulate and the dominant rule-setter in the international trade and financial system. The strategy of constructive engagement, or liberal internationalism, is no longer working, but a more confrontational relationship with China could be economically costly and politically dangerous. There is an alternative to simple confrontation and military competition that could promote the goal of a freer, more peaceful world more effectively. The West may have to restrain sensitive trade and respond robustly to the Chinese government’s actions in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and against Asian neighbours. However, this could be supplemented with a programme of engagement between private individuals, organisations, and firms in free societies with their Chinese counterparts. Organising more contact at a civil society level could lead to social and cultural changes that China’s current rulers will have to accept or find much less easy to manage.
{"title":"Chinese Puzzle: A Classical Liberal Approach to Post-pandemic Relations with China","authors":"S. Davies, S. Kamall","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3851945","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3851945","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 is provoking a major reorientation of American and European foreign policy. At the heart of this is their changing relationship with China. The pandemic has given rise to fears of a new Cold War, which are based on out-of-date assumptions and a misunderstanding of China’s motivations. Unlike the USSR, it neither seeks hegemony, nor aspires to evangelise and export its political and economic system. It acts out of self-interest and seeks to become both a model nation for developing countries to emulate and the dominant rule-setter in the international trade and financial system. The strategy of constructive engagement, or liberal internationalism, is no longer working, but a more confrontational relationship with China could be economically costly and politically dangerous. There is an alternative to simple confrontation and military competition that could promote the goal of a freer, more peaceful world more effectively. The West may have to restrain sensitive trade and respond robustly to the Chinese government’s actions in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and against Asian neighbours. However, this could be supplemented with a programme of engagement between private individuals, organisations, and firms in free societies with their Chinese counterparts. Organising more contact at a civil society level could lead to social and cultural changes that China’s current rulers will have to accept or find much less easy to manage.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87226118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study reviews the dramatic effects of COVID-19 on the hotel service industry and provides a reflective analysis of the changes that could be made to this industry moving forward into the future. As the COVID-19 pandemic plagues the hotel service industry with prodigious challenges and unveils the fragile state of industry formed on personal interaction and human mobility. As such, this paper sought to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the hotel service industry and conceptualize the future practice in the post-covid world. An extensive and critical review was conducted that examined prior works from different streams of hospitality management and marketing research to identify and evaluate the three possible levels of impact (major, limited, and no impact) of COVID-19 on the practice of the hotel service industry. While researchers have noted that High Touch plays an essential role in service satisfaction, the pandemic has put a stop to that. Together with the recent development in technology, the standard of hotel practice and hospitality in the post-covid world would be redefined.
{"title":"Conceptualizing the Post-COVID Servicescape for Hotel Industry","authors":"V. Trinh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3899637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3899637","url":null,"abstract":"This study reviews the dramatic effects of COVID-19 on the hotel service industry and provides a reflective analysis of the changes that could be made to this industry moving forward into the future. As the COVID-19 pandemic plagues the hotel service industry with prodigious challenges and unveils the fragile state of industry formed on personal interaction and human mobility. As such, this paper sought to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the hotel service industry and conceptualize the future practice in the post-covid world. An extensive and critical review was conducted that examined prior works from different streams of hospitality management and marketing research to identify and evaluate the three possible levels of impact (major, limited, and no impact) of COVID-19 on the practice of the hotel service industry. While researchers have noted that High Touch plays an essential role in service satisfaction, the pandemic has put a stop to that. Together with the recent development in technology, the standard of hotel practice and hospitality in the post-covid world would be redefined.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"198 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73955248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Launched in 2019 in Wuhan in china, the corona virus has now affected the entire world community. The World Health Organization has officially stated that it is currently a contagious disease in the world community(2020).Many of these countries have been affected and vaccination is now underway to control the virus. The same is true in Sri Lanka. The impact of COVID-19 on tourist, employment, household income, agriculture and small medium enterprises is revealed below. In 2019 the tourism industry contributed 4.3% to local GDP. (SLTDA , 2020) However, due to the epidemic, the closure of the country and the restrictions on tourism reduced the income of those engaged in tourism. They faced many problems. As a result, many jobs were lost. Closer of some businesses has resulted in job losses due to loss of business revenue. It also highlights the decline in family income due to the loss of small scale entrepreneurial activities and loss of trade. Although the country was initially closed, the sale and distribution of agricultural produce was problematic, but the government made it an essential service and distributed it throughout the country. Decreased export earnings, restrictions on imports, rising unemployment, trade deficits, declining foreign exchange, loss of household income, shortage of fertilizer for agriculture production, problems with bank loan repayments and all these have affected the Sri Lankan economy.
{"title":"Analysing the Impact of COVID-19 on Sri Lanka Economy","authors":"Kaushalya Udani","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3907117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3907117","url":null,"abstract":"Launched in 2019 in Wuhan in china, the corona virus has now affected the entire world community. The World Health Organization has officially stated that it is currently a contagious disease in the world community(2020).Many of these countries have been affected and vaccination is now underway to control the virus. The same is true in Sri Lanka. The impact of COVID-19 on tourist, employment, household income, agriculture and small medium enterprises is revealed below. In 2019 the tourism industry contributed 4.3% to local GDP. (SLTDA , 2020) However, due to the epidemic, the closure of the country and the restrictions on tourism reduced the income of those engaged in tourism. They faced many problems. As a result, many jobs were lost. Closer of some businesses has resulted in job losses due to loss of business revenue. It also highlights the decline in family income due to the loss of small scale entrepreneurial activities and loss of trade. Although the country was initially closed, the sale and distribution of agricultural produce was problematic, but the government made it an essential service and distributed it throughout the country. Decreased export earnings, restrictions on imports, rising unemployment, trade deficits, declining foreign exchange, loss of household income, shortage of fertilizer for agriculture production, problems with bank loan repayments and all these have affected the Sri Lankan economy.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81204095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article uses the question “Can government and businesses mandate the COVID-19 vaccine?” as a starting point for an interdisciplinary discussion appropriate for a variety of business laws classes. This timely and engaging question lends itself to a class discussion on law, ethics, and behavioral economics, which will help students integrate their learning across these disciplines. This lesson is appropriate for courses on the Legal and Ethical Regulation of Business as well as Employment Law at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. In addition to currently being an extremely timely topic, mandatory vaccination will remain an important issue for years to come as many experts predict immunity will wane with time and booster vaccines will be required.
One of the most important learning goals of this lesson is improving students’ understanding of the complexities surrounding the legal regulation of business in the United States. Real-world business dilemmas often have many interrelated legal issues and students will develop a true understanding of how to integrate various areas of the law. The lesson pulls together different legal concepts including federalism, statutory interpretation, administrative law, stare decisis, constitutional law, and employment discrimination. Additionally, the lesson is an excellent way to develop students’ analytical and critical thinking skills. This lesson can also be used to develop students’ ability to analyze issues from competing ethical frameworks. These mandates are a particularly interesting topic for ethical analysis since there are many hypothetical variations depending on the specific vaccine mandate at issue, and who it covers. Additionally, this article discusses how vaccine mandates can be used to introduce a class discussion on behavioral economics.
{"title":"Vaccines in the Time of COVID-19: Using Vaccine Mandates to Teach about the Legal and Ethical Regulation of Business","authors":"D. Kaminer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3883768","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3883768","url":null,"abstract":"This article uses the question “Can government and businesses mandate the COVID-19 vaccine?” as a starting point for an interdisciplinary discussion appropriate for a variety of business laws classes. This timely and engaging question lends itself to a class discussion on law, ethics, and behavioral economics, which will help students integrate their learning across these disciplines. This lesson is appropriate for courses on the Legal and Ethical Regulation of Business as well as Employment Law at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. In addition to currently being an extremely timely topic, mandatory vaccination will remain an important issue for years to come as many experts predict immunity will wane with time and booster vaccines will be required.<br><br>One of the most important learning goals of this lesson is improving students’ understanding of the complexities surrounding the legal regulation of business in the United States. Real-world business dilemmas often have many interrelated legal issues and students will develop a true understanding of how to integrate various areas of the law. The lesson pulls together different legal concepts including federalism, statutory interpretation, administrative law, stare decisis, constitutional law, and employment discrimination. Additionally, the lesson is an excellent way to develop students’ analytical and critical thinking skills. This lesson can also be used to develop students’ ability to analyze issues from competing ethical frameworks. These mandates are a particularly interesting topic for ethical analysis since there are many hypothetical variations depending on the specific vaccine mandate at issue, and who it covers. Additionally, this article discusses how vaccine mandates can be used to introduce a class discussion on behavioral economics. <br>","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"142 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82618686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Changes in political leadership drive large changes in economic optimism. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties: a 1.1 to 2.6 percentage point difference in annual births, depending on the intensity of partisanship. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites. Further, following Trump pre-election campaign visits, relative Hispanic fertility declines.
{"title":"Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections","authors":"Gordon B. Dahl, Runjing Lu, William Mullins","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3822013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3822013","url":null,"abstract":"Changes in political leadership drive large changes in economic optimism. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties: a 1.1 to 2.6 percentage point difference in annual births, depending on the intensity of partisanship. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites. Further, following Trump pre-election campaign visits, relative Hispanic fertility declines.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89842199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most muted and shortest-lived of any of the five global recessions over the past 50 years and the increase in inflation since May 2020 has been the fastest. Second, the decline in global inflation from January-May 2020 was four-fifths driven by the collapse in global demand and another one-fifth driven by plunging oil prices, with some offsetting inflationary pressures from supply disruptions. The subsequent surge in inflation has been mostly driven by a sharp increase in global demand. Third, both model-based forecasts and current inflation expectations point to an increase in inflation for 2021 of just over 1 percentage point. For virtually all advanced economies and one-half of inflation-targeting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), an increase of this magnitude would leave inflation within target ranges. If the increase is temporary and inflation expectations remain well-anchored, it may not warrant a monetary policy response. If, however, inflation expectations risk becoming unanchored, EMDE central banks may be compelled to tighten monetary policy before the recovery is fully entrenched.
{"title":"Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?","authors":"Jongrim Ha, M. Kose, F. Ohnsorge","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3881502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3881502","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most muted and shortest-lived of any of the five global recessions over the past 50 years and the increase in inflation since May 2020 has been the fastest. Second, the decline in global inflation from January-May 2020 was four-fifths driven by the collapse in global demand and another one-fifth driven by plunging oil prices, with some offsetting inflationary pressures from supply disruptions. The subsequent surge in inflation has been mostly driven by a sharp increase in global demand. Third, both model-based forecasts and current inflation expectations point to an increase in inflation for 2021 of just over 1 percentage point. For virtually all advanced economies and one-half of inflation-targeting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), an increase of this magnitude would leave inflation within target ranges. If the increase is temporary and inflation expectations remain well-anchored, it may not warrant a monetary policy response. If, however, inflation expectations risk becoming unanchored, EMDE central banks may be compelled to tighten monetary policy before the recovery is fully entrenched.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83172548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the theoretical implications of structural transformation and demographic transition in Mainland China for its domestic economy and the world interest rates. Our proposed model predicts that the transition from a manufacturing-oriented economy to a service-oriented economy affects the world interest rates through the balance of payment channel by changing the relative price of the non-tradables in the foreign country. Specifically, labour transfer without efficiency improvements in the tradable sector tends to lower the world interest rate, while economic transition triggered by initial productivity gains in the tradable sector tends to push up the interest rate. Our model also predicts that aging causes the real interest rate to fall, though by a small amount. Since interest rate movement during economic transition is small, its feedback effect on output and the real exchange rate is not large. Contrarily, labour transfer and aging have significant impacts on domestic output, besides the initial productivity gains (if any) in the tradable sector. Exchange rates and foreign output are also affected by domestic transition, especially when transition is triggered by efficiency improvement in domestic tradable sector.
{"title":"A Model of Structural Transformation and Demographic Transition in China and Dynamics of World Interest Rate","authors":"Gaofeng Han","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3889832","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3889832","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the theoretical implications of structural transformation and demographic transition in Mainland China for its domestic economy and the world interest rates. Our proposed model predicts that the transition from a manufacturing-oriented economy to a service-oriented economy affects the world interest rates through the balance of payment channel by changing the relative price of the non-tradables in the foreign country. Specifically, labour transfer without efficiency improvements in the tradable sector tends to lower the world interest rate, while economic transition triggered by initial productivity gains in the tradable sector tends to push up the interest rate. Our model also predicts that aging causes the real interest rate to fall, though by a small amount. Since interest rate movement during economic transition is small, its feedback effect on output and the real exchange rate is not large. Contrarily, labour transfer and aging have significant impacts on domestic output, besides the initial productivity gains (if any) in the tradable sector. Exchange rates and foreign output are also affected by domestic transition, especially when transition is triggered by efficiency improvement in domestic tradable sector.","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"21 3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77503947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we analyse the inequity in current global vaccine distribution through the lens of international human rights law. First, we introduce the currently available COVID-19 vaccines, before discussing causes and consequences of vaccine inequity, as well as efforts to expand global vaccine access. We then turn to explain the relevant obligations of states regarding human rights to health, life, and equitable access to the benefits of technology. In light of those obligations, we assess the human rights compatibility of vaccine procurement and vaccine aid. After a discussion of the possible human rights responsibilities of the pharmaceutical companies that own the vaccines, we focus on whether a proposed waiver of global intellectual property rights in respect of COVID-19 vaccines is demanded under international human rights law. We conclude with a critique of failures in the international legal system, which may have rendered vaccine inequity inevitable
{"title":"Vaccine Apartheid: A Human Rights Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccine Inequity","authors":"S. Joseph, G. Dore","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3876848","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3876848","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyse the inequity in current global vaccine distribution through the lens of international human rights law. First, we introduce the currently available COVID-19 vaccines, before discussing causes and consequences of vaccine inequity, as well as efforts to expand global vaccine access. We then turn to explain the relevant obligations of states regarding human rights to health, life, and equitable access to the benefits of technology. In light of those obligations, we assess the human rights compatibility of vaccine procurement and vaccine aid. After a discussion of the possible human rights responsibilities of the pharmaceutical companies that own the vaccines, we focus on whether a proposed waiver of global intellectual property rights in respect of COVID-19 vaccines is demanded under international human rights law. We conclude with a critique of failures in the international legal system, which may have rendered vaccine inequity inevitable","PeriodicalId":20373,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Health eJournal","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83948180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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