Using population-wide Swedish register data on cognitive abilities and productive personality traits, we show that employment growth has been monotonically skill-biased in terms of these general-purpose intellectual skills, despite a simultaneous (polarizing) decline in middle-wage jobs. Employees in declining mid-wage occupations have comparably little of these general intellectual skills. Conversely, growing low-wage occupations are more (intellectually) skill-intensive than other low-wage jobs. Employment has primarily increased in occupations where workers are endowed with verbal and technical abilities, and social maturity. Existing occupational projections imply that the relationship between employment growth and skills in the projected future will resemble the past.
{"title":"The Skill-Specific Impact of Past and Projected Occupational Decline","authors":"Lena E. Hensvik, Oskar Nordstrom Skans","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3534479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3534479","url":null,"abstract":"Using population-wide Swedish register data on cognitive abilities and productive personality traits, we show that employment growth has been monotonically skill-biased in terms of these general-purpose intellectual skills, despite a simultaneous (polarizing) decline in middle-wage jobs. Employees in declining mid-wage occupations have comparably little of these general intellectual skills. Conversely, growing low-wage occupations are more (intellectually) skill-intensive than other low-wage jobs. Employment has primarily increased in occupations where workers are endowed with verbal and technical abilities, and social maturity. Existing occupational projections imply that the relationship between employment growth and skills in the projected future will resemble the past.","PeriodicalId":206501,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Labor & Social Conditions eJournal","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116574024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In a basic New Keynesian DSGE model with involuntary unemployment and inflation target shocks, we study the role of labor markets in the transmission of persistent monetary policy shocks that increase households' inflation expectations. The model predicts that labor market conditions can play important role in the transmission channel of the persistent inflation target shock: quantitatively realistic labor market frictions increase the expansionary effect of inflation target shock on output by around a half compared to that under the model without labor market frictions. Using a VAR analysis, we further provide empirical evidence consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model.
{"title":"Persistent Monetary Policy in a Model with Labor Market Frictions","authors":"Roman Goncharenko, Elizaveta Lukmanova","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3719043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3719043","url":null,"abstract":"In a basic New Keynesian DSGE model with involuntary unemployment and inflation target shocks, we study the role of labor markets in the transmission of persistent monetary policy shocks that increase households' inflation expectations. The model predicts that labor market conditions can play important role in the transmission channel of the persistent inflation target shock: quantitatively realistic labor market frictions increase the expansionary effect of inflation target shock on output by around a half compared to that under the model without labor market frictions. Using a VAR analysis, we further provide empirical evidence consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model.","PeriodicalId":206501,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Labor & Social Conditions eJournal","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116081770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We establish an observational equivalence between unemployment fluctuations of the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides search economy augmented with time varying risk premia and an otherwise identical economy without risk premia but with a time varying value of leisure. This equivalence holds for general risk premia processes and allows us to view the effects of different models of risk premia as operating through a single channel—one that alters the value of leisure. We derive simple expressions for semielasticities of labor market tightness with respect to productivity and risk premium shocks. We show wages can be used to detect misspecification in the discount rate process used in hiring decisions. This paper was accepted by Lukas Schmid, finance. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.03712 .
{"title":"High Discounts and Low Fundamental Surplus: An Equivalence Result for Unemployment Fluctuations","authors":"Indrajit Mitra, Taeuk Seo, Yu Xu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3918535","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3918535","url":null,"abstract":"We establish an observational equivalence between unemployment fluctuations of the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides search economy augmented with time varying risk premia and an otherwise identical economy without risk premia but with a time varying value of leisure. This equivalence holds for general risk premia processes and allows us to view the effects of different models of risk premia as operating through a single channel—one that alters the value of leisure. We derive simple expressions for semielasticities of labor market tightness with respect to productivity and risk premium shocks. We show wages can be used to detect misspecification in the discount rate process used in hiring decisions. This paper was accepted by Lukas Schmid, finance. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.03712 .","PeriodicalId":206501,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Labor & Social Conditions eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128667524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the crucial role of tourism with the periodic sponge effect played in the development of Denmark's industry structure. The existence of the periodic sponge effect between tourism and manufacturing is analysed by proposing an approach to calculate the periodic sponge effect index. This phenomenon describing wane and wax shifting between the industry sector and the service sector is jointly contributed by the natural seasonal variations in the tourism industry and the flexicurity labour market with flexible employment policies in Denmark. To prove that the service sector with periodic sponge effect will not cause the Dutch disease, the relationship between the service sector and GDP in Denmark are studied by adopting a unit root test, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test. The global disaster, including the global financial crisis, can be regarded as an outlier in the periodic economic oscillation. The impacts of the financial crisis of 2008 on the alteration of industry structure are revealed. Moreover, during this economic crisis, the de-industrialisation that is a replacement of the manufacturing proportion by tourism is discussed. In terms of the unemployment issue, the depression of manufacturing is the main factor to cause the unemployment problem. Tourism becomes a significant contributor to provide job opportunities. Furthermore, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the current situation of Denmark is discussed.
{"title":"Poison or Cure? a Study on the Periodic Sponge Effect in Denmark’s Tourism Industry","authors":"Hong Yan, Shouyang Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3899761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3899761","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the crucial role of tourism with the periodic sponge effect played in the development of Denmark's industry structure. The existence of the periodic sponge effect between tourism and manufacturing is analysed by proposing an approach to calculate the periodic sponge effect index. This phenomenon describing wane and wax shifting between the industry sector and the service sector is jointly contributed by the natural seasonal variations in the tourism industry and the flexicurity labour market with flexible employment policies in Denmark. To prove that the service sector with periodic sponge effect will not cause the Dutch disease, the relationship between the service sector and GDP in Denmark are studied by adopting a unit root test, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test. The global disaster, including the global financial crisis, can be regarded as an outlier in the periodic economic oscillation. The impacts of the financial crisis of 2008 on the alteration of industry structure are revealed. Moreover, during this economic crisis, the de-industrialisation that is a replacement of the manufacturing proportion by tourism is discussed. In terms of the unemployment issue, the depression of manufacturing is the main factor to cause the unemployment problem. Tourism becomes a significant contributor to provide job opportunities. Furthermore, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the current situation of Denmark is discussed.","PeriodicalId":206501,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Labor & Social Conditions eJournal","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133472992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Compliance requirements, such as active job search, in combination with monitoring and sanctions are a commonly used tool to induce effort among social assistance claimants and achieve reemployment as quickly as possible. We conduct a randomized field experiment in the Netherlands to test two alternative regulatory approaches, which both build on providing claimants with more autonomy. For our first treatment we fully exempt claimants from requirements, monitoring and sanctions. For our second treatment claimants follow a one-on-one counselling programme shaped according to their needs and wishes. We find that compared to control, exempted claimants are twice as likely to have a job with earnings above the benefit level roughly two years later. Also, we observe a shift from temporary to permanent employment contracts under exemption. For counselling we find largely temporary labor market effects. Using surveys, we find no evidence of effects on outcomes related to health and well-being, social participation and job search behavior for both treatments. We also analyze effects on subgroup level.
{"title":"Requirements vs. Autonomy: What Works in Social Assistance?","authors":"T. Verlaat, S. Rosenkranz, L. Groot, M. Sanders","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3720953","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3720953","url":null,"abstract":"Compliance requirements, such as active job search, in combination with monitoring and sanctions are a commonly used tool to induce effort among social assistance claimants and achieve reemployment as quickly as possible. We conduct a randomized field experiment in the Netherlands to test two alternative regulatory approaches, which both build on providing claimants with more autonomy. For our first treatment we fully exempt claimants from requirements, monitoring and sanctions. For our second treatment claimants follow a one-on-one counselling programme shaped according to their needs and wishes. We find that compared to control, exempted claimants are twice as likely to have a job with earnings above the benefit level roughly two years later. Also, we observe a shift from temporary to permanent employment contracts under exemption. For counselling we find largely temporary labor market effects. Using surveys, we find no evidence of effects on outcomes related to health and well-being, social participation and job search behavior for both treatments. We also analyze effects on subgroup level.","PeriodicalId":206501,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Labor & Social Conditions eJournal","volume":"334 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133843385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Few studies address the effect of coursework on student achievement. Resultingly, Liberal Arts and STEM education are rarely stacked up against each other despite the increasing evidence that technical classes increase lifetime earnings. The practice of academic tracking in Italy's secondary education allows to compare differences in achievement between the two élite tracks offering distinctive courseload in humanities and technical subjects. Using PISA data from the 2012, 2015, and 2018 waves of the test, the study shows that attending the Liberal Arts track substantially decreases achievement on the math and science sections of the test while not granting any reading premium. Propensity score matching and regression decomposition suggest that the effect depends on the production function rather than on lacking educational inputs. Thus, they warrant the conclusion that the technical track generates human capital more efficiently than the Liberal Arts track does. Potential self-selection issues are acknowledged and back the belief that the effect sizes calculated in the study represent lower bounds for the underlying negative impact of Liberal Arts education.
{"title":"Is Liberal Arts Education a Dominated Alternative? Assessing STEM and Liberal Arts Coursework in Italy’s Secondary Education","authors":"Matteo Zullo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3855840","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3855840","url":null,"abstract":"Few studies address the effect of coursework on student achievement. Resultingly, Liberal Arts and STEM education are rarely stacked up against each other despite the increasing evidence that technical classes increase lifetime earnings. The practice of academic tracking in Italy's secondary education allows to compare differences in achievement between the two élite tracks offering distinctive courseload in humanities and technical subjects. Using PISA data from the 2012, 2015, and 2018 waves of the test, the study shows that attending the Liberal Arts track substantially decreases achievement on the math and science sections of the test while not granting any reading premium. Propensity score matching and regression decomposition suggest that the effect depends on the production function rather than on lacking educational inputs. Thus, they warrant the conclusion that the technical track generates human capital more efficiently than the Liberal Arts track does. Potential self-selection issues are acknowledged and back the belief that the effect sizes calculated in the study represent lower bounds for the underlying negative impact of Liberal Arts education.","PeriodicalId":206501,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Labor & Social Conditions eJournal","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127516244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Republic of Belarus, like any other developing country, pays special attention to the development of an effective and dynamic innovation infrastructure that creates favourable conditions for innovation start-ups, introducing the country on a global scale, increasing export potential, solving employment-related issues and increasing wages.
{"title":"Performance Analysis of the Implementation of Innovation Policy in Belarus","authors":"V. Terziev, V. Klimuk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3851270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3851270","url":null,"abstract":"The Republic of Belarus, like any other developing country, pays special attention to the development of an effective and dynamic innovation infrastructure that creates favourable conditions for innovation start-ups, introducing the country on a global scale, increasing export potential, solving employment-related issues and increasing wages.","PeriodicalId":206501,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Labor & Social Conditions eJournal","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114760527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate how firms trade off the interests of different stakeholders when their industry comes under antitrust scrutiny. Using cartel cases opened by the European Commission between 1994 and 2019 in a difference-in-difference setup, we find that cartel investigations adversely affect the performance of firms in the affected industry, as compared to adjacent industries. In response to the shock, firms resort to restructuring strategies by increasing mass layoffs and (to a smaller extent) large-scale asset sales within three years after the investigation is opened. The increase in mass layoffs is partly mitigated for firms operating in countries with stronger employment protection regulations. We find no evidence that firms pass the burden of the shock onto shareholders through lower payouts. Our paper suggests that providers of labor, rather than capital, are paying the price for increased antitrust scrutiny after infringements of competition law.
{"title":"Trading Off Stakeholder Interests: Evidence from Antitrust Investigations","authors":"Giacinta Cestone, Jiaying Li, P. Volpin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3773448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3773448","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate how firms trade off the interests of different stakeholders when their industry comes under antitrust scrutiny. Using cartel cases opened by the European Commission between 1994 and 2019 in a difference-in-difference setup, we find that cartel investigations adversely affect the performance of firms in the affected industry, as compared to adjacent industries. In response to the shock, firms resort to restructuring strategies by increasing mass layoffs and (to a smaller extent) large-scale asset sales within three years after the investigation is opened. The increase in mass layoffs is partly mitigated for firms operating in countries with stronger employment protection regulations. We find no evidence that firms pass the burden of the shock onto shareholders through lower payouts. Our paper suggests that providers of labor, rather than capital, are paying the price for increased antitrust scrutiny after infringements of competition law.<br>","PeriodicalId":206501,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Labor & Social Conditions eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123121213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the long-term impact of a policy-driven change in childhood nutrition. For this purpose, we evaluate a program that rolled out nutritious school lunches free of charge to all pupils in Swedish primary schools between 1959 and 1969. We estimate the impact of the program on children’s economic, educational, and health outcomes throughout life. Our results show that the school lunch program generated substantial long-term benefits, where pupils exposed to the program during their entire primary school period have 3% higher lifetime income. The effect was greater for pupils that were exposed at earlier ages and for pupils from poor households, suggesting that the program reduced socioeconomic inequalities in adulthood. Exposure to the program also had substantial effects on educational attainment and health, which can explain a large part of the effect of the program on lifetime income.
{"title":"Long-Term Effects of Childhood Nutrition: Evidence from a School Lunch Reform","authors":"Jesper Alex-Petersen, P. Lundborg, Dan‐Olof Rooth","doi":"10.1093/RESTUD/RDAB028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/RESTUD/RDAB028","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We study the long-term impact of a policy-driven change in childhood nutrition. For this purpose, we evaluate a program that rolled out nutritious school lunches free of charge to all pupils in Swedish primary schools between 1959 and 1969. We estimate the impact of the program on children’s economic, educational, and health outcomes throughout life. Our results show that the school lunch program generated substantial long-term benefits, where pupils exposed to the program during their entire primary school period have 3% higher lifetime income. The effect was greater for pupils that were exposed at earlier ages and for pupils from poor households, suggesting that the program reduced socioeconomic inequalities in adulthood. Exposure to the program also had substantial effects on educational attainment and health, which can explain a large part of the effect of the program on lifetime income.","PeriodicalId":206501,"journal":{"name":"European Economics: Labor & Social Conditions eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122416959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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