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Using Admission Lotteries to Estimate Heterogeneous Effects of Elite Schools 利用录取摇号来估计精英学校的异质性效应
Pub Date : 2020-04-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3580387
H. Oosterbeek, Nienke M. Ruijs, I. D. de Wolf
This paper studies the effects of enrollment in an elite school on students’ achievement. We use that elite schools in Amsterdam are often oversubscribed and admission is based on lotteries. Our results show that elite schools have negative effects on achievement of students who just qualify for the highest academic track and positive effects on achievement of students from the top of the baseline ability distribution. These results reconcile contrasting findings from previous studies that use regression discontinuity designs. We also find that value-added estimates of the effects of elite schools are severely biased.
本文研究了名校录取对学生学业成就的影响。我们利用阿姆斯特丹的精英学校经常被超额申请,并且录取是基于抽签的。我们的研究结果表明,精英学校对学业成绩最高的学生有负面影响,对基线能力分布最高的学生有积极影响。这些结果调和了先前使用回归不连续设计的研究的对比结果。我们还发现,对精英学校影响的增值估计存在严重偏差。
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引用次数: 8
Minimum Wages and Firm-Level Employment in a Developing Country 发展中国家的最低工资和企业层面的就业
Pub Date : 2020-04-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3681416
F. Sjöholm
The effect of minimum wages on employment is a matter of debate, and the existing empirical literature contains mixed results. One reason for this is the methodological difficulties involved where changes in minimum wages are endogenous to other important economic changes. To overcome this problem, we examine exogenous changes to local minimum wages in Indonesia between 1989 and 1994. Our natural experiment results from a national policy change: from minimum wages being determined by local guidelines and criteria to minimum wages being harmonized and set according to nationwide criteria. We examine how these changes in minimum wages affect employment, considering the effect both on employment within plants and on exit of plants. Our results show no evidence of an effect of minimum wages on employment in Indonesian plants. One explanation found in the data is that higher minimum wages force plants to increase productivity, which in turn enables them to retain their labor force, despite higher wage costs.
最低工资对就业的影响是一个有争议的问题,现有的实证文献包含不同的结果。其中一个原因是,最低工资的变化与其他重要的经济变化是内生的,这涉及到方法论上的困难。为了克服这一问题,我们研究了1989年至1994年间印度尼西亚当地最低工资的外生变化。我们的自然实验源于国家政策的变化:从由地方指导方针和标准决定的最低工资,到根据全国标准统一和设定的最低工资。我们研究了最低工资的这些变化是如何影响就业的,同时考虑了对工厂内部就业和工厂出口的影响。我们的研究结果显示,没有证据表明最低工资对印尼工厂的就业有影响。数据中发现的一种解释是,更高的最低工资迫使工厂提高生产率,这反过来又使它们能够在工资成本更高的情况下留住劳动力。
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引用次数: 0
The Labor Market in Norway: 2000-2018 挪威劳动力市场:2000-2018
Pub Date : 2020-04-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3569497
Øivind A. Nilsen
Norway has a rather high labor force participation rate and a very low unemployment rate. Part of the reason for this fortunate situation is the so-called “tripartism”: a broad agreement among unions, employers and government to maintain a high level of coordination in wage bargaining. This has led to downward real wage flexibility, which has lessened the effects of negative shocks to the economy. Reduced net immigration, especially from neighboring countries, also mitigated the negative effects of the oil price drop in 2014. A potential drawback of tripartism is the difficulty of reducing employee absences and disability.
挪威的劳动力参与率很高,失业率很低。造成这种幸运局面的部分原因是所谓的“三方主义”:工会、雇主和政府之间达成广泛协议,在工资谈判中保持高度协调。这导致了实际工资弹性的下降,从而减轻了负面冲击对经济的影响。净移民的减少,尤其是来自邻国的移民,也缓解了2014年油价下跌的负面影响。三方制的一个潜在缺点是难以减少员工缺勤和残疾。
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引用次数: 22
Discrimination, Migration, and Economic Outcomes: Evidence from World War I 歧视、移民和经济结果:第一次世界大战的证据
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26936
Andreas Ferrara, P. Fishback
This paper examines the individual and aggregate costs of ethnic discrimination. Studying Germans in the U.S. during World War I, an event that abruptly downgraded their previously high social standing, we show that anti-German sentiment was strongly associated with counties' casualties in the war, leading to subsequent outmigration of Germans. Such relocation to evade discrimination was costly for German workers. However, counties with larger outflows of Germans, who tended to be well-trained manufacturing workers, incurred economic costs too, including a drop in average annual manufacturing wages of 0.6 to 2.2 percent. This effect lasted at least until 1930.
本文考察了种族歧视的个体成本和总体成本。第一次世界大战期间,在美国研究德国人的事件,突然降低了他们之前很高的社会地位,我们发现反德情绪与战争中各州的伤亡密切相关,导致德国人随后向外移民。这种为了避免歧视而搬迁的做法对德国工人来说代价高昂。然而,德国人外流较多的国家,往往是训练有素的制造业工人,也会产生经济成本,包括制造业平均年工资下降0.6%至2.2%。这种影响至少持续到1930年。
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引用次数: 13
Технологический прогресс и рынок труда: влияние на занятость, безработицу и рабочее время (Technological Progress and the Labor Market: Effects on Employment, Unemployment and Working Time)
Pub Date : 2020-03-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3596038
M. Lopatina, Victor Lyashok, Tatʹi︠a︡na Maleva
Russian Abstract: Данная работа посвящена рассмотрению влияния современных и будущих технологий на рынок труда. Было проанализировано насколько оправданы ожидания массовой безработицы в России и мире, и какие другие последствия технологические инновации могут нести для рынка труда.
Отдельное внимание было уделено предпринимаемым мерам государственной политике на рынке труда. Анализ более 200 программ, проводимых службами занятости в странах Европейского Союза, привел к парадоксальному выводу: несмотря на постоянно звучащие намерения о реформировании основных мер политики на рынке труда, европейские службы занятости продолжают использовать стандартный набор практик. В целом это традиционные меры, никак не связанные с четвертой промышленной революцией.
Российские исследования не находят вклада технологических изменений на российский рынок труда. Однако, принимая во внимание особенности рынка труда в России, можно предположить, что подстройка к технологическим изменениям будет происходить не через канал занятости и безработицы, а через подстройку заработных плат.

English Abstract: This work is devoted to considering the impact of modern and future technologies on the labor market. It was analyzed how the expectations of mass unemployment in Russia and the world are justified, and what other consequences technological innovations may have for the labor market. Special attention was paid to measures taken by government policy on the labor market. An analysis of more than 200 programs conducted by employment services in the countries of the European Union led to a paradoxical conclusion: despite constantly voiced intentions to reform the main labor market policies, the European employment services continue to use a standard set of practices. In general, these are traditional measures that have nothing to do with the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Russian studies do not find the contribution of technological change to the Russian labor market. However, taking into account the peculiarities of the labor market in Russia, it can be assumed that the adjustment to technological changes will occur not through the channel of employment and unemployment, but through the adjustment of wages.
俄罗斯Abstract:这篇论文是关于当代和未来技术对劳动力市场的影响。分析了俄罗斯和世界范围内大规模失业的预期有多合理,以及技术创新对劳动力市场的其他影响。特别关注的是政府在劳动力市场上采取的政策措施。对欧盟各国就业服务执行的200多个方案的分析得出了一个矛盾的结论:尽管人们一再表示要改革劳动力市场的基本政策,但欧洲就业服务仍在使用标准做法。总的来说,这是一项传统措施,与第四次工业革命无关。俄罗斯研究没有发现技术变革对俄罗斯劳动力市场的影响。然而,考虑到俄罗斯劳动力市场的特点,人们可能会认为,对技术变革的调整不会通过就业和失业渠道进行,而是通过工资调整。英语Abstract:这篇文章是为了解释拉博市场上现代和未来的技术。这是俄罗斯和世界正义的大规模实验,也是labor市场的另一项技术创新。特别的刺激是由政府在拉博市场的政策决定的。在欧洲联盟(paradoxical conclusion)的200个项目中,欧洲联盟的计划被取消了。在通用,这是一种贸易手段,试图与第四工业革命合作。俄罗斯工作室不会完成对俄罗斯labor市场的技术转换。However,从俄罗斯拉博市场拿起一根手指,这可能是对科技频道的滥用,但也可能是对wages的滥用。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Visa Costs on a Global Scale 在全球范围内评估签证成本
Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3630141
E. Recchi, E. Deutschmann, L. Gabrielli, N. Kholmatova
Visas are an important means for countries to regulate incoming mobility flows. Past datasets and quantitative research on visas have focused on visa waivers, ignoring the fact that visas, where demanded, can vary greatly by cost. This paper presents a novel dataset based on a manual collection of visa costs for travel between a global set of country pairs in seven different categories (tourist, work, student, family reunification, business, transit, and other). Our analyses reveal a strong global visa cost divide that raises important questions about the injustice regarding the right to travel for people located in different areas of the world. Whereas Europeans usually hardly have to work at all for travel permits, visa costs often amount to several weeks or even months of mean income in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Regression analyses show that these discriminatory practices are explained by the (lack of) economic prosperity and (flawed) state of democracy in the country of origin. This suggests that the global visa cost regime is driven by a rationale of economic and political control and exclusion rather than blatant racism. The result is a fundamentally paradoxical situation: The richer a country, the less its citizens pay for visas to go abroad (both in absolute terms and relative to their income).
签证是各国调控入境人员流动的重要手段。过去关于签证的数据集和定量研究都集中在签证豁免上,忽略了一个事实,即签证的需求可能因成本而有很大差异。本文提出了一个新的数据集,该数据集基于七个不同类别(旅游、工作、学生、家庭团聚、商务、过境和其他)的全球一组国家对之间旅行的签证费用的人工收集。我们的分析显示,全球签证成本存在巨大差异,这引发了一个重要问题,即世界不同地区的人在旅行权利方面存在不公平。欧洲人通常几乎不需要为获得旅行许可而工作,而在撒哈拉以南非洲和南亚,签证费用往往相当于几个星期甚至几个月的平均收入。回归分析表明,这些歧视性做法可以用原籍国(缺乏)经济繁荣和(有缺陷的)民主状况来解释。这表明,全球签证成本制度是由经济和政治控制和排斥的基本原理驱动的,而不是公然的种族主义。其结果是一个根本矛盾的局面:一个国家越富裕,其公民为出国签证支付的费用就越少(无论是从绝对值还是相对于他们的收入而言)。
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引用次数: 4
Intergenerational Transmission of Unemployment - Causal Evidence from Austria 失业的代际传递——来自奥地利的因果证据
Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3562858
Dominik Grübl, Mario Lackner, R. Winter‐Ebmer
We estimate the causal effect of parents' unemployment on unemployment among their children in their own adulthood. We use administrative data for Austrian children born between 1974 and 1984 and apply an instrumental variables (IV) identifcation strategy using parents' job loss during a mass layoff as the instrument. We find evidence of unemployment inheritance in the next generation. An additional day of unemployment during childhood causally raises the average unemployment days of the adult child by 1 to 2%. The greatest effects are observed for unmarried parents, young children, children of low-education parents, and in families living in capital cities. We also explore various channels of intergenerational unemployment, such as education, income, and job matching by parents.
我们估计了父母失业对子女成年后失业的因果影响。我们使用1974年至1984年间出生的奥地利儿童的行政数据,并应用工具变量(IV)识别策略,使用大规模裁员期间父母的失业作为工具。我们发现了失业遗传在下一代的证据。儿童期每多失业一天,成年子女的平均失业天数就会增加1%至2%。受影响最大的群体是未婚父母、年幼子女、父母受教育程度较低的子女以及居住在首都城市的家庭。我们还探讨了代际失业的各种渠道,如教育、收入和父母的工作匹配。
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引用次数: 3
Learning Lessons from the Economic Crisis in Self-employment 从经济危机中学习个体经营的经验教训
Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.5709/CE.1897-9254.329
Alfonso Jesús Torres Marín
The main objective of this article is to test the hypothesis that the economic crisis has resulted in significant changes in the socioeconomic and labor profile of the new self-employed in Spain between 2008 and 2013. Additionally, it is intended to determine if there are homogeneous pro- files of new self-employed workers that allow to set clusters, and, if so, to check how these clusters have changed in the studied period. To verify the above-mentioned hypotheses, it has been carried out a descriptive analysis followed by a Cluster Analysis, using the Continuous Sample of Working Lives data. The research concludes that the economic recession has been accompanied by a fall in the number of new self-employed between 2008 and 2013, along with a significant change in their socio-demographic and occupational profile. There is also evidence of the existence of several clusters of self-employed, with heterogeneous sociodemographic and labor characteristics. The composition and features of these clusters evolved in parallel to the economic situation, showing an intense increase in the educational level and a reduction in the job stability between 2008 and 2013.
本文的主要目的是检验经济危机导致2008年至2013年间西班牙新个体经营者的社会经济和劳动状况发生重大变化的假设。此外,它还旨在确定是否存在允许设置集群的新个体经营者的同质档案,如果存在,则检查这些集群在研究期间的变化情况。为了验证上述假设,它已经进行了描述性分析,然后是聚类分析,使用工作生活数据的连续样本。该研究得出的结论是,在2008年至2013年期间,经济衰退伴随着新个体经营者数量的下降,同时他们的社会人口和职业状况也发生了重大变化。也有证据表明存在几个个体经营者集群,具有异质的社会人口和劳动特征。这些集群的组成和特征与经济形势同步发展,在2008年至2013年期间,教育水平大幅提高,工作稳定性下降。
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引用次数: 5
Employer Provided Training in Europe: Determinants and Obstacles 欧洲雇主提供的培训:决定因素和障碍
Pub Date : 2020-02-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3542650
G. Brunello, Patricia Wruuck
This report looks at employer–provided training in Europe. We start with a brief outline of the economic theory of training. We then look at the recent facts, by combining data from two employer surveys, the European Investment Bank's Investment Survey (EIBIS) and Eurostat's Continuous Vocational Training Survey (CVTS). We review the recent empirical literature on the relationship between economic institutions and training and between training and productivity and consider whether financing constraints hamper the training provision by firms. The paper concludes by discussing policy implications.
这份报告着眼于欧洲雇主提供的培训。我们首先简要概述一下培训的经济理论。然后,我们通过结合两项雇主调查的数据,即欧洲投资银行的投资调查(EIBIS)和欧盟统计局的持续职业培训调查(CVTS),来研究最近的事实。我们回顾了最近关于经济制度与培训之间以及培训与生产力之间关系的实证文献,并考虑融资约束是否阻碍了企业提供培训。本文最后讨论了政策影响。
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引用次数: 16
A Countermeasure to GDP Veneration: Social Progress Indicator 崇拜GDP的对策:社会进步指标
Pub Date : 2020-02-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3541327
Cal B. Muckley
A Social Progress Indicator is a survey instrument, which combined with objective data, can evaluate the impact and quality of state services. The areas of state intervention envisaged include child and long-term care services, education, environment, health, housing, public transport, state pension system and security of the citizen. The impact and quality of state services can determine national well-being. It is vitally important that the economic performance of the Irish state `trickles down' to its citizens by way of the high quality provision of state services, and a Social Progress Indicator can be tailored to achieve that outcome. In this discussion paper, we present the main arguments that a Social Progress Indicator can provide a valuable and novel supplementary measurement of national well-being for Ireland, and that Ireland has an opportunity to act as a global leader in this context. We also provide, at an executive level, guidelines in regard to a methodology to construct a Social Progress Indicator for Ireland. The principal arguments for a Social Progress Indicator are as follows. First, the inadequacy of conventional measurements of national performance e.g. national income, as a proxy for the state's impact on the quality of life of its citizens. Second, the scope, via a Social Progress Indicator, for the improvement of quality of life of a state's citizens, as measured by international standardized rankings e.g. European Quality of Life Survey. Third, the absence of a customer satisfaction criterion, for scientific and timely feedback, in relation to the provision and improvement of state services. Finally, the scope for applications of Social Progress Indicator, in regard to motivating state actors, across state departments, can serve to further motivate the establishment of a Social Progress Indicator. The question of how to measure the quality of delivery of state services is complex and challenging. Relying, in part at least, on people's own judgment is a convenient shortcut and potentially provides a natural way to aggregate various, and potentially diverse, experiences. In a world of misleading anecdotal evidence (i.e. 'fake' news) and media marketed opinion pieces in regard to the quality of state services, a rigorously constructed Social Progress Indicator can play a critically important and informative role. In this vein, we provide executive level recommendations on the data science of representative sampling, sub-index aggregation, and we include a justification for a pilot study and the management of user expectations. We also highlight how a machine learning approach, in the form of textual analytics, can play an important role in aggregating feedback from the citizens of the state. We provide the first evaluation of arguments for a Social Progress Indicator, as a metric to capture the quality of state services in Ireland, with a view to enhancing national well-being.
社会进步指标是一种调查工具,结合客观数据,可以评估国家服务的影响和质量。设想的国家干预领域包括儿童和长期护理服务、教育、环境、卫生、住房、公共交通、国家养老金制度和公民安全。国家服务的影响和质量可以决定国民的福祉。至关重要的是,通过提供高质量的国家服务,爱尔兰国家的经济表现“涓滴”到公民身上,社会进步指标可以量身定制,以实现这一结果。在本讨论文件中,我们提出了主要论点,即社会进步指标可以为爱尔兰的国民福祉提供有价值的、新颖的补充衡量标准,爱尔兰有机会在这方面发挥全球领导者的作用。我们还在行政一级提供了关于为爱尔兰建立社会进步指标的方法的指导方针。社会进步指标的主要论据如下。首先,作为国家对公民生活质量影响的代表,国家表现(如国民收入)的传统衡量方法不充分。其次,通过社会进步指标,通过国际标准化排名(如欧洲生活质量调查)来衡量一个国家公民生活质量的改善范围。第三,在提供和改善国家服务方面,缺乏科学和及时反馈的客户满意度标准。最后,社会进步指标的应用范围,在激励国家行为者方面,跨国家部门,可以进一步激励社会进步指标的建立。如何衡量国家服务质量的问题既复杂又具有挑战性。至少在某种程度上,依靠人们自己的判断是一种方便的捷径,并可能提供一种自然的方式来汇总各种各样的经验。在一个充满误导性的轶事证据的世界里(即。“假”新闻)和媒体营销的关于国家服务质量的评论文章,严格构建的社会进步指标可以发挥至关重要的信息作用。在这种情况下,我们提供了关于代表性抽样、子指数聚合的数据科学的执行级别建议,我们包括了试点研究和用户期望管理的理由。我们还强调了以文本分析形式的机器学习方法如何在汇总来自国家公民的反馈中发挥重要作用。我们为社会进步指标的论点提供了第一次评估,作为衡量爱尔兰国家服务质量的指标,以提高国民福祉。
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引用次数: 0
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European Economics: Labor & Social Conditions eJournal
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