How does the brain track and process rapidly changing sensory information? Current computational accounts suggest that our sensations and decisions arise from the intricate interplay between bottom-up sensory signals and constantly changing expectations regarding the statistics of the surrounding world. A significant focus of recent research is determining which statistical properties are tracked by the brain as it monitors the rapid progression of sensory information. Here, by combining EEG (three experiments N ≥ 22 each) and computational modelling, we examined how the brain processes rapid and stochastic sound sequences that simulate key aspects of dynamic sensory environments. Passively listening participants were exposed to structured tone-pip arrangements that contained transitions between a range of stochastic patterns. Predictions were guided by a Bayesian predictive inference model. We demonstrate that listeners automatically track the statistics of unfolding sounds, even when these are irrelevant to behaviour. Transitions between sequence patterns drove a shift in the sustained EEG response. This was observed to a range of distributional statistics, and even in situations where behavioural detection of these transitions was at floor. These observations suggest that the modulation of the EEG sustained response reflects a process of belief updating within the brain. By establishing a connection between the outputs of the computational model and the observed brain responses, we demonstrate that the dynamics of these transition-related responses align with the tracking of “precision” – the confidence or reliability assigned to a predicted sensory signal - shedding light on the intricate interplay between the brain's statistical tracking mechanisms and its response dynamics.
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