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PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)最新文献

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Exports and Wages: Rent Sharing, Workforce Composition or Returns to Skills? 出口与工资:租金分担、劳动力构成还是技能回报?
Pub Date : 2012-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2144757
Mario Macis, F. Schivardi
We use linked employer-employee data from Italy to explore the relationship between exports and wages. Our empirical strategy exploits the 1992 devaluation of the Italian Lira, which represented a large and unforeseen shock to Italian firms' incentives to export. The results indicate that the export wage premium is due to exporting firms both (1) paying a wage premium above what their workers would earn in the outside labor market – the "rent-sharing" effect, and (2) employing workers whose skills command a higher price after the devaluation – the "skill composition" effect. The latter effect only emerges once we allow for the value of individual skills to differ in the pre- and post-devaluation periods. In fact, using a fixed measure of skills, as typically done in the literature, we would attribute the wage increase only to rent sharing. We also document that the export wage premium is larger for workers with more export-related experience. This indicates that the devaluation increased the demand for skills more useful for exporting, driving their relative price up.
我们使用来自意大利的关联雇主-雇员数据来探索出口与工资之间的关系。我们的实证策略利用了1992年意大利里拉的贬值,这对意大利公司的出口动机造成了巨大的、不可预见的冲击。结果表明,出口工资溢价是由于出口企业(1)支付高于其工人在外部劳动力市场上的工资溢价——“租金分担”效应,以及(2)雇用在货币贬值后技能要求更高价格的工人——“技能构成”效应。只有当我们考虑到个人技能的价值在货币贬值前后有所不同时,后一种效应才会出现。事实上,使用固定的技能衡量标准,就像文献中通常做的那样,我们将工资增长只归因于租金分担。我们还证明,对于具有更多出口相关经验的工人来说,出口工资溢价更大。这表明,货币贬值增加了对对出口更有用的技能的需求,推高了它们的相对价格。
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引用次数: 73
Views on the Commission’s Draft EU Budget: Excessively Ambitious or Overly Timid? 对欧盟委员会预算草案的看法:过于雄心勃勃还是过于胆怯?
Pub Date : 2012-01-27 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2001362
A. Mijs, A. Schout
The Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for the post-2013 period is one of the most sensitive topics presently under discussion in the European Union. Budget negotiations are always complex and divisive for the parties concerned, but an additional factor in the current round is the impact of the euro crisis, which is evident throughout the process. The reactions to the European Commission’s proposal are mixed, with some finding it excessively ambitious and others finding it lacking in reform. This paper analyses the Commission proposal on the MFF and its reception by the member states. It argues that the Commission has put forward a well balanced proposal, which leaves enough room for reform. In the end, however, the outcome of the negotiations will strongly depend on the member states.
2013年后的多年度财务框架(MFF)是目前欧盟讨论中最敏感的话题之一。预算谈判对于有关各方来说总是复杂和分歧的,但本轮谈判的另一个因素是欧元危机的影响,这在整个过程中都很明显。人们对欧盟委员会的提议反应不一,一些人认为它过于雄心勃勃,另一些人则认为它缺乏改革。本文分析了欧盟委员会关于MFF的建议及其在各成员国中的接受程度。它认为欧盟委员会提出了一个平衡的提案,为改革留下了足够的空间。然而,最终谈判的结果将在很大程度上取决于成员国。
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引用次数: 0
A Darwinian Perspective on 'Exchange Rate Undervaluation' “汇率低估”的达尔文视角
Pub Date : 2011-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2708821
Qingyuan Du, S. Wei
This paper studies how status competition for marriage partners can generate surprising effects on the real exchange rate (RER). In theory, a rise in the sex ratio (increasing relative surplus of men) can generate a decline in the RER. The effect can be quantitatively large if the biological desire for a marriage partner is strong. We also provide within-China and cross-country empirical evidence to support the theory. As an application, our cross-country estimation suggests that sex ratio as well as other factors in the existing literature can account for the recent evolution in Chinese RER almost completely.
本文研究了婚姻伴侣的地位竞争如何对实际汇率(RER)产生惊人的影响。理论上,性别比的上升(男性相对盈余的增加)会导致RER的下降。如果对婚姻伴侣的生理渴望很强烈,这种影响在数量上就会很大。我们还提供了国内和跨国的经验证据来支持这一理论。作为一项应用,我们的跨国估计表明,性别比例以及现有文献中的其他因素几乎可以完全解释中国RER的近期演变。
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引用次数: 22
Currency Composition of Global Foreign Exchange Reserves: Stylized Facts from Multivariate Structural Time Series Modeling 全球外汇储备的货币构成:来自多元结构时间序列模型的程式化事实
Pub Date : 2010-09-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2293325
Cem Payaslioğlu
The study is an empirical investigation dealing with the stylized fact about the currency composition of foreign exchange rezerves. IMF’s COFER database statistics featuring aggregated data for two groupings of countries, namely advanced economies (33 countries), and Emerging and developing economies (107 countries) are used in the computations.The methodology is based on multivariate structural time series (MSTS) applied to quarterly foreign exchange reserve series involving four main currencies namely, U.S. dollar, Euro, Pound Sterling and Japanese Yen for the 1999:1-2009:4 period. Rather than using the level of these series, their shares in total allocated reserves are calculated and hence used here. Empirical findings for advanced economies group indicate that a strong but negative correlation can be detected between the trend disturbances of UsD and Euro-Pound rezerve shares while a high positive correlation exists between the latter two. Consequently, this imposes a dependence structure in the form of a common trend between rezerve shares in these currencies. The common factor dependence structure changes noticeably for emerging economies group.
本研究是针对外汇储备货币构成的定型化事实进行的实证研究。计算中使用的是IMF的COFER数据库统计数据,其中包含两组国家的汇总数据,即发达经济体(33个国家)和新兴和发展中经济体(107个国家)。该方法基于多元结构时间序列(MSTS),应用于涉及美元、欧元、英镑和日元等四种主要货币的季度外汇储备序列,时间跨度为1999年1月至2009年4月。不使用这些序列的水平,而是计算它们在总分配储备中的份额,因此在这里使用。发达经济体集团的实证结果表明,美元和欧元-英镑储备份额的趋势扰动之间存在强烈的负相关关系,而后者之间存在高度的正相关关系。因此,这强加了一种依赖结构,其形式是这些货币的储备份额之间的共同趋势。新兴经济体集团的共同要素依赖结构发生了显著变化。
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引用次数: 1
Money Growth and Inflation: A Regime Switching Approach 货币增长与通货膨胀:一种制度转换方法
Pub Date : 2010-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/J.JIMONFIN.2012.09.006
Gianni Amisano, G. Fagan
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引用次数: 79
Varieties of Capitalism, Varieties of Vulnerabilities: Financial Crisis and its Impact on Welfare States in Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States 资本主义的多样性,脆弱性的多样性:金融危机及其对东欧和独联体福利国家的影响
Pub Date : 2009-11-15 DOI: 10.12759/HSR.35.2010.2.266-295
J. Drahokoupil, M. Myant
This paper investigates the implications of the 2008 financial crisis on welfare states and the capitalist diversity in the post-communist world, including Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. It analyzes three political-economic varieties in the region: those of capitalism, welfare, and vulnerabilities to the crisis. The three varieties are linked, but there is also a considerable variation given the importance of political and policy factors. Economic growth models created different political and economic constraints on policies of adjustment to the crisis. In particular, currency substitution was associated with strong political preferences for defending exchange rates, with adjustment through reductions in public spending and wages. A variety of welfare models was associated with different political constituencies for welfare provision. The interplay of these constraints and political factors together with intervention of international institutions shapes the nature of welfare state adjustments. Early developments indicate also some unexpected outcomes.
本文研究了2008年金融危机对包括东欧和独联体在内的后共产主义世界的福利国家和资本主义多样性的影响。它分析了该地区的三种政治经济类型:资本主义、福利和对危机的脆弱性。这三种类型是有联系的,但由于政治和政策因素的重要性,也有相当大的差异。经济增长模式对危机调整政策造成了不同的政治和经济限制。特别是,货币替代与捍卫汇率的强烈政治倾向有关,并通过减少公共支出和工资进行调整。不同的福利模式与不同的福利提供政治选区相关联。这些制约因素和政治因素的相互作用,加上国际机构的干预,决定了福利国家调整的性质。早期的发展也显示出一些意想不到的结果。
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引用次数: 34
Familiarity, Convenience, and Commodity Money: Spanish and Mexican Silver Dollars in Qing and Republican China 熟悉、便利与商品货币:清代与民国时期的西班牙银币与墨西哥银币
Pub Date : 2009-06-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1424070
W. Bailey, Bin Zhao
Using the available monthly and annual data from 1866 to 1928, we study the premiums at which foreign silver coins and silver-backed currency circulating in China sold relative to melt value, at both Shanghai and San Francisco. Silver-backed Chinese currency typically sold at a slight premium to its melt value, while Mexican and particularly Spanish silver dollars often sold at substantial premiums above melt value, averaging 2.25% and 16.09% respectively. Silver money premiums appear related to several measures of Chinese and global trade, competitiveness, and prosperity, including the extent of opium imports. We also offer potential psychological and cultural explanations for the observed premiums.
利用1866年至1928年的月度和年度数据,我们研究了在上海和旧金山两地,在中国流通的外国银币和银质货币相对于熔化价值的溢价。白银支撑的中国货币通常以略高于熔点价值的价格出售,而墨西哥和西班牙银元通常以高于熔点价值的大幅溢价出售,平均价格分别为2.25%和16.09%。银币溢价似乎与中国和全球贸易、竞争力和繁荣的几个指标有关,包括鸦片进口的程度。我们也为观察到的溢价提供了潜在的心理和文化解释。
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引用次数: 2
Evidence for Sign Asymmetry of Exchange Rate Exposure 汇率风险敞口符号不对称的证据
Pub Date : 2008-12-30 DOI: 10.4038/cbj.v1i2.115
P. Jayasinghe
This paper attempts to find evidence for sign asymmetry of exchange rate exposure. An extended classification of the sources of asymmetry has been introduced in place of somewhat incomplete classification suggested by previous studies. In addition, a new measure is suggested in order to estimate the overall impact of incorporating sign asymmetry. The study results in several important findings: (a) there is evidence for the presence of sign asymmetry; (b) as it can work in either direction, it is not appropriate to make generalizations like incorporating sign asymmetry always leading to more/less exchange rate exposure; and (c) the exposure coefficients estimated by the models that do not capture sign asymmetry are likely to under/overestimate the exposure to exchange rate risk
本文试图寻找汇率敞口符号不对称的证据。一种对不对称来源的扩展分类已被引入,以取代以前的研究提出的有些不完整的分类。此外,提出了一种新的措施,以估计纳入符号不对称的整体影响。研究结果有几个重要发现:(a)有证据表明存在符号不对称;(b)由于它可以在任何一个方向上起作用,因此不适合进行普遍化,例如将符号不对称纳入总是导致更多/更少的汇率风险;(c)未捕获符号不对称的模型估计的风险系数可能低估/高估汇率风险的风险敞口
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引用次数: 0
OECD 국가에서 재정지출이 경상수지와 실질환율에 미치는 영향 (Government Spending Shocks, the Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate in OECD Countries) (Government Spending Shocks, the Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate in OECD Countries)
Pub Date : 2008-06-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3077845
Soyoung Kim
Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 패널 VAR 모형을 이용하여 20개 OECD 국가에서 재정지출 충격이 경상수지와 실질환율에 미치는 영향에 관한 일반적인 실증분석 결과를 얻고자 하였다. 또한 그룹별 추정을 통해 국가 규모와 개방도에 따라 재정지출 충격이 미치는 영향이 어떻게 변하는가를 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 20개국을 이용한 분석에서는 재정지출 충격이 경상수지를 뚜렷하게 악화시키나 실질환율 절하 효과는 확실하지 않다. (2) 개방도가 큰 경우 더 뚜렷한 실질환율 절하 효과를 볼 수 있으나 경상수지 악화는 더 일시적이다. (3) 국가규모가 큰 경우 경상수지 악화 효과가 더 뚜렷하게 나타난다. 재정확장 정책 후 실질환율 절하 현상은 전통적인 이론들에 부합하지 않지만, 국가 특성에 따른 차이는 기존 이론에 어느 정도 부합한다고 볼 수 있고 향후 이론적인 분석에서 국가별 특성의 차이를 고려하는 것이 중요함을 시사하고 있다. English Abstract: This paper examines the effects of government spending shocks on the current account and the real exchange rate for 20 OECD countries using panel VAR model, in order to provide empirical stylized facts. The countries were grouped based on openness and size, and the influence of openness and size on the effects of government spending shocks. The main findings are as follows. First, in the analysis of all 20 countries, in response to government spending shocks, the worsening of the current account is significant, but real exchange rate appreciation is not significant. Second, real exchange rate appreciation is more significant and worsening of the current account is more temporary in the group of countries with higher openness than in those with low openness. Third, the worsening of the current account is more significant in the group of large countries than in the group of small countries. Although real exchange rate depreciation under fiscal expansion is not consistent with traditional theories, the results are broadly consistent with the existing theories that incorporate openness and the size of the country.
Korean Abstract:本研究利用面板VAR模型,得出20个OECD国家财政支出冲击对经常收支和实际汇率的影响的一般实证分析结果。另外,通过分组估算,分析了财政支出冲击随国家规模和开放度的变化。实证分析结果如下:(1)利用20个国家的分析结果显示,财政支出冲击明显恶化了经常收支,但实际汇率下降效果并不明显。(2)开放度大的情况下,可以取得更明显的实际汇率贬值效果,但经常收支恶化则是暂时的。(3)国家规模大,经常收支恶化的效果更加明显。财政扩张政策后的实际汇率贬值现象虽然不符合传统理论,但可以认为国家特性带来的差异在一定程度上符合现有理论,暗示在今后的理论分析中考虑各国特性差异非常重要。english abstract:This paper examines the effects of government spending shocks on the current account and the real exchange rate for 20 OECD countries using panel VAR model,in order to provide empirical stylized facts。The countries were grouped based on openness and size, and The influence of openness and size on The effects of government spending shocks。The main findings are as follows。First, in the analysis of all 20 countries, in response to government spending shocks, the worsening of the current account is significant, but real exchange rate appreciation is not significant。Second, real exchange rate appreciation is more significant and worsening of the current account is more temporary in the group of countries with higher openness than in those with low openness。the worsening of the current account is more significant in the group of large countries than the group of small countries。Although real exchange rate depreciation under fiscal expansion is not consistent with traditional theories;the results are broadly consistent with the existing theories that incorporate openness and the size of the country。
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引用次数: 0
The Upsides of Currency Manipulation: How China Survived the East Asian Crisis of 1997-8 《货币操纵的好处:中国如何度过1997- 1998年东亚金融危机》
Pub Date : 2008-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2253820
Shira Kaplan
For more than a decade, the United States has spearheaded the efforts to pressure China to appreciate the yuan versus the dollar. China’s exchange rate regime has been accused of as manipulative and dishonest, as Beijing has sought to keep the yuan at a rate of between 10 and 40 percent under its supposed value. China’s devaluation of the yuan has not only undermined its Asian neighbors’ export growth; it has also widened significantly the current account gap between the United States and China over the past decade, burdening the US economy with an ever-increasing trade deficit. I argue that despite the inconvenience caused to the East Asian economies and to the United States’ economy in the past decade, China’s currency manipulation has been favorable and advantageous to its own growth. Specifically, I analyze how useful China’s exchange rate policy was before and throughout the East Asian crisis of 1997. My conclusion is that without China’s currency manipulation, it is possible that China would have been hit much harder by the financial crisis, such that it would have taken it much longer to emerge into the world’s globalized economy as a leading player. I discuss China’s motivation for currency manipulation in the context of its desire to avoid social and political unrest.
十多年来,美国一直带头向中国施压,要求人民币对美元升值。中国的汇率制度被指责为操纵和不诚实,因为北京一直试图将人民币汇率保持在其假定价值的10%至40%之间。中国的人民币贬值不仅损害了其亚洲邻国的出口增长;在过去十年中,它还显著扩大了中美之间的经常账户差距,使美国经济承受着不断扩大的贸易逆差。我认为,尽管过去10年中国操纵汇率给东亚经济和美国经济带来了不便,但对中国自身的增长却是有利和有利的。具体来说,我分析了中国的汇率政策在1997年东亚金融危机之前和整个过程中是多么有用。我的结论是,如果没有中国的汇率操纵,中国可能会受到金融危机更大的打击,从而需要更长的时间才能成为世界全球化经济的主要参与者。我在中国希望避免社会和政治动荡的背景下讨论了中国操纵货币的动机。
{"title":"The Upsides of Currency Manipulation: How China Survived the East Asian Crisis of 1997-8","authors":"Shira Kaplan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2253820","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2253820","url":null,"abstract":"For more than a decade, the United States has spearheaded the efforts to pressure China to appreciate the yuan versus the dollar. China’s exchange rate regime has been accused of as manipulative and dishonest, as Beijing has sought to keep the yuan at a rate of between 10 and 40 percent under its supposed value. China’s devaluation of the yuan has not only undermined its Asian neighbors’ export growth; it has also widened significantly the current account gap between the United States and China over the past decade, burdening the US economy with an ever-increasing trade deficit. I argue that despite the inconvenience caused to the East Asian economies and to the United States’ economy in the past decade, China’s currency manipulation has been favorable and advantageous to its own growth. Specifically, I analyze how useful China’s exchange rate policy was before and throughout the East Asian crisis of 1997. My conclusion is that without China’s currency manipulation, it is possible that China would have been hit much harder by the financial crisis, such that it would have taken it much longer to emerge into the world’s globalized economy as a leading player. I discuss China’s motivation for currency manipulation in the context of its desire to avoid social and political unrest.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90639128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)
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