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Could the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act Have Prevented the Financial Crisis? 1933年的格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案能阻止金融危机吗?
Pub Date : 2020-10-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3726739
Maxime Delabarre
This paper explores the common argument according to which the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act was at the origin of the 2008 financial crisis. By arguing successively that the Act would not have covered the failing banks and that it would not have solved the “Too-big-to-fail” problem, this paper concludes by the negative. Had the Glass-Steagall act still been in place, the global Financial crisis would not have been prevented. Mortgage policies, low capital requirements, and Basel II seem to be more convincing alternatives.
本文探讨了格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的废除是2008年金融危机根源的常见论点。通过连续论证该法案不会覆盖濒临倒闭的银行,也不会解决“大到不能倒”的问题,本文得出了否定的结论。如果《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》(Glass-Steagall act)仍然有效,全球金融危机就无法避免。抵押贷款政策、低资本要求和巴塞尔协议II似乎是更有说服力的替代方案。
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引用次数: 0
What are the Financial Systemic Implications of Access and Non-access to Federal Reserve Deposit Accounts for Central Counterparties? 中央交易对手进入和不进入美联储存款账户对金融系统的影响是什么?
Pub Date : 2020-10-21 DOI: 10.21033/wp-2020-21
Maggie Sklar
In this working paper, I examine the interconnections between designated derivatives central counterparties (CCPs) with Federal Reserve deposit accounts and non-designated CCPs and the potential financial stability implications. This working paper notes the interconnections between the non-designated and designated derivatives CCPs through their clearing members and the commercial custodial banks they utilize to hold and transfer collateral. The paper then identifies additional potential contagion risks and financial stability risks, including liquidity risk, market risk, concentration risk, and loss of confidence more broadly. Although there are a number of research articles addressing these topics with respect to designated CCPs or OTC derivatives, this working paper includes the perspective looking at U.S. futures CCPs and non-designated CCPs.
在这篇工作论文中,我研究了指定衍生品中央对手方(ccp)与美联储存款账户和非指定ccp之间的相互联系以及潜在的金融稳定影响。本工作文件注意到非指定和指定衍生品ccp通过其清算成员及其用于持有和转让抵押品的商业托管银行之间的相互联系。然后,本文确定了其他潜在的传染风险和金融稳定风险,包括流动性风险、市场风险、集中度风险和更广泛的信心丧失。虽然有许多研究文章涉及指定ccp或场外衍生品方面的这些主题,但本工作文件包括着眼于美国期货ccp和非指定ccp的视角。
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引用次数: 0
The Interaction Between Macroprudential Policy and Monetary Policy: Overview 宏观审慎政策与货币政策的互动:综述
Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3716128
M. Bussière, Jin Cao, Jakob de Haan, Bob Hills, Simon Lloyd, Baptiste Meunier, Justine Pedrono, Dennis Reinhardt, Sonalika Sinha, R. Sowerbutts, K. Styrin
This paper presents the main findings of an International Banking Research Network initiative examining the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in determining international bank lending. We give an overview on the data, empirical specifications and results of the seven papers from the initiative. The papers are from a range of core and smaller advanced economies, and emerging markets. The main findings are as follows. First, there is evidence that macroprudential policy in recipient countries can partly offset the spillover effects of monetary policy conducted in core countries. Meanwhile, domestic macroprudential policy in core countries can also affect the cross‑border transmission of domestic monetary policy via lending abroad, by limiting the increase in lending by less strongly capitalised banks. Second, the findings highlight that studying heterogeneities across banks provides complementary insights to studies using more aggregate data and focusing on average effects. In particular, we find that individual bank characteristics such as bank size or G‑SIB status play a first‑order role in the transmission of these policies. Finally, the impacts differ considerably across prudential policy instruments, which also suggests the importance of more granular analysis.
本文介绍了国际银行研究网络倡议的主要发现,该倡议研究了货币政策和宏观审慎政策在决定国际银行贷款方面的相互作用。我们对该倡议的七篇论文的数据、实证规范和结果进行了概述。这些论文来自一系列核心和较小的发达经济体,以及新兴市场。主要研究结果如下:首先,有证据表明,受援国的宏观审慎政策可以部分抵消核心国家货币政策的溢出效应。与此同时,核心国家的国内宏观审慎政策也可以通过限制资本不太雄厚的银行的贷款增长,从而影响国内货币政策通过海外贷款的跨境传导。其次,研究结果强调,研究银行间的异质性为使用更多汇总数据和关注平均效应的研究提供了补充见解。特别是,我们发现,银行规模或G - SIB地位等个别银行特征在这些政策的传导中起着一级作用。最后,不同审慎政策工具的影响差异很大,这也表明了更细致分析的重要性。
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引用次数: 24
Uncovering Mutual Fund Private Information with Machine Learning 用机器学习揭示共同基金的私有信息
Pub Date : 2020-10-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3713966
Alan L. Zhang
This paper implements natural language processing (NLP) models and neural networks to predict mutual fund performance using the textual information disclosed in mutual fund shareholder letters. Informed funds identified by the prediction model deliver superior abnormal returns and are more likely to receive an upgrade in Morningstar ratings. Informed funds also attract greater flows in three days and up to 24 months after the disclosure of shareholder letters, especially when their disclosure has greater investor attention, suggesting that investors recognize the information from the qualitative disclosure. The machine learning model shows that informed funds tend to discuss sector specializations, portfolio risk taking, big picture of the financial market, and mixed strategies across assets. Collectively, this study shows that mutual fund disclosure contains rich, value-relevant textual information that can be analyzed by state-of-the-art machine learning models and help investors identify informed funds.
本文利用共同基金股东信中披露的文本信息,实现自然语言处理(NLP)模型和神经网络来预测共同基金业绩。通过预测模型识别的知情基金提供了优越的异常回报,并且更有可能获得晨星评级的提升。知情基金在披露股东函后的3天至24个月内吸引的资金流也会增加,特别是当其披露受到投资者更大的关注时,这表明投资者认可了定性披露的信息。机器学习模型显示,知情的基金倾向于讨论行业专业化、投资组合风险承担、金融市场的大局以及跨资产的混合策略。总的来说,这项研究表明,共同基金披露包含丰富的、与价值相关的文本信息,这些信息可以通过最先进的机器学习模型进行分析,并帮助投资者识别知情的基金。
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引用次数: 4
Medicine Or An Addictive Drug?: The Vicious Cycle Of Regulatory Forbearance 药物还是成瘾性药物?:容忍监管的恶性循环
Pub Date : 2020-10-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3740631
Nithin Mannil, Naman Nishesh, Prasanna Tantri
At the onset of the financial crisis, the Indian regulator allowed banks to restructure loans without downgrading and providing for them. Banks tunneled capital by increasing dividends from profits engineered using regulatory forbearance. Even after the crisis dissipated, banks remained undercapitalized, forcing the regulator to continue forbearance. Lending distortions due to undercapitalization and a banking crisis followed. The ruling elite benefited by obtaining more restructuring for firms in influential districts, increased dividends on the government's shareholding, and taxes. Thus, regulatory forbearance created a vicious cycle where exogenous shocks made otherwise healthy banks undercapitalized leading to its extension even after economic recovery.
在金融危机爆发之初,印度监管机构允许银行在不下调评级和提供贷款的情况下重组贷款。银行利用监管机构的宽容,通过提高利润的股息来挖掘资本。即使在危机消散后,银行仍然资本不足,迫使监管机构继续容忍。随之而来的是资本不足导致的贷款扭曲和银行业危机。统治精英们通过对有影响力地区的公司进行更多的重组、增加政府持股的股息和税收而受益。因此,监管宽容造成了一个恶性循环,外部冲击使原本健康的银行资本不足,导致其在经济复苏后继续扩大。
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引用次数: 2
Transition Risks and Opportunities in Residential Mortgages 住房抵押贷款的转型风险与机遇
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3726012
Franziska Schuetze
A range of studies has analysed how climate-related risks can impact financial markets, focusing on equity and corporate bond holdings. This article takes a closer look at transition risks and opportunities in residential mortgages. Mortgage loans are important from a financial perspective due to their large share in banks’ assets and their long credit lifetime, and from a climate perspective due to their large share in fossil fuel consumption. The analysis combines data on the energy-performance of buildings with financial data on mortgages for Germany and identifies two risk drivers – a carbon price and a performance standard. The scenario analysis shows that expected credit loss can be substantially higher for a “brown” portfolio compared to a “green” portfolio. Taking climate policy into account in risk management and strategy can reduce the transition risk and open up new lending opportunities. Financial regulation can promote such behaviour.
一系列研究分析了气候相关风险如何影响金融市场,重点是股票和公司债券持有。本文将深入探讨住宅抵押贷款的转型风险和机遇。从金融角度来看,抵押贷款很重要,因为它们在银行资产中所占的份额很大,而且信贷期限很长;从气候角度来看,抵押贷款在化石燃料消耗中所占的份额很大。该分析结合了建筑能效数据和德国抵押贷款财务数据,确定了两个风险驱动因素——碳价格和绩效标准。情景分析表明,与“绿色”投资组合相比,“棕色”投资组合的预期信贷损失可能要高得多。在风险管理和战略中考虑气候政策可以降低转型风险并开辟新的贷款机会。金融监管可以促进这种行为。
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引用次数: 5
Liquidity, Interbank Network Topology and Bank Capital 流动性、银行间网络拓扑和银行资本
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3707090
Aref Mahdavi Ardekani
PurposeWhile previous literature has emphasized the causal relationship from liquidity to capital, the impact of interbank network characteristics on this relationship remains unclear. By applying the interbank network simulation, this paper aims to examine whether the causal relationship between capital and liquidity is influenced by bank positions in the interbank network.Design/methodology/approachUsing the sample of 506 commercial banks established in 28 European countries from 2001 to 2013, the author adopts the generalized method of moments simultaneous equations approach to investigate whether interbank network characteristics influence the causal relationship between bank capital and liquidity.FindingsDrawing on a sample of commercial banks from 28 European countries, this study suggests that the interconnectedness of banks within interbank loan and deposit networks shapes their decisions to establish higher or lower regulatory capital ratios in the face of increased illiquidity. These findings support the implementation of minimum liquidity ratios alongside capital ratios, as advocated by the Basel Committee on Banking Regulation and Supervision. In addition, the paper underscores the importance of regulatory authorities considering the network characteristics of banks in their oversight and decision-making processes.Originality/valueThis paper makes a valuable contribution to the current body of research by examining the influence of interbank network characteristics on the relationship between a bank’s capital and liquidity. The findings provide insights that add to the ongoing discourse on regulatory frameworks and emphasize the necessity of customized approaches that consider the varied interbank network positions of banks.
虽然之前的文献强调了流动性与资本之间的因果关系,但银行间网络特征对这种关系的影响尚不清楚。通过银行间网络模拟,本文旨在检验资本与流动性之间的因果关系是否受到银行间网络头寸的影响。设计/方法/方法以2001年至2013年在欧洲28个国家建立的506家商业银行为样本,采用广义矩联立方程方法研究银行间网络特征是否影响银行资本与流动性的因果关系。研究结果本研究以来自28个欧洲国家的商业银行为样本,表明银行间贷款和存款网络内银行的相互联系影响了它们在面临流动性不足时建立更高或更低监管资本比率的决定。这些发现支持巴塞尔银行监管委员会(Basel Committee on Banking Regulation and Supervision)所倡导的在资本充足率之外实施最低流动性比率。此外,本文强调了监管机构在监督和决策过程中考虑银行网络特征的重要性。本文通过考察银行间网络特征对银行资本与流动性关系的影响,为当前的研究做出了有价值的贡献。研究结果为正在进行的关于监管框架的讨论提供了见解,并强调了考虑银行不同银行间网络位置的定制方法的必要性。
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引用次数: 2
On the Origin of Systemic Risk 论系统性风险的起源
Pub Date : 2020-09-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3699369
Mattia Montagna, G. Torri, Giovanni Covi
Systemic risk in the banking sector is usually associated with long periods of economic downturn and very large social costs. On one hand, shocks coming from correlated exposures towards the real economy may induce correlation in banks’ default probabilities thereby increasing the likelihood for systemic tail events like the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. On the other hand, financial contagion also plays an important role in generating large-scale market failures, amplifying the initial shocks coming from the real economy. To study the sources of these rare phenomena, we propose a new definition of systemic risk (ie the probability of a large number of banks going into distress simultaneously) and thus we develop a multilayer microstructural model to study empirically the determinants of systemic risk. The model is then calibrated on the most comprehensive granular dataset for the euro-area banking sector, capturing roughly 96% or €23.2 trillion of euro-area banks’ total assets over the period 2014–2018. The outputs of the model decompose and quantify the sources of systemic risk showing that correlated economic shocks, financial contagion mechanisms, and their interaction are the main sources of systemic events. The results obtained with the simulation engine resemble common market-based systemic risk indicators and empirically corroborate findings from existing literature. This framework gives regulators and central bankers a tool to study systemic risk and its developments, pointing out that systemic events and banks’ idiosyncratic defaults have different drivers, hence implying different policy responses.
银行业的系统性风险通常与长期的经济低迷和巨大的社会成本有关。一方面,来自实体经济相关风险敞口的冲击可能会导致银行违约概率的相关性,从而增加发生系统性尾部事件(如2008年金融危机)的可能性。另一方面,金融传染在造成大规模市场失灵方面也起着重要作用,放大了来自实体经济的最初冲击。为了研究这些罕见现象的来源,我们提出了系统风险的新定义(即大量银行同时陷入困境的概率),从而我们开发了一个多层微观结构模型来实证研究系统风险的决定因素。然后,该模型在欧元区银行业最全面的颗粒数据集上进行校准,这些数据集在2014-2018年期间捕获了欧元区银行总资产的96%或23.2万亿欧元。模型的输出对系统性风险的来源进行了分解和量化,表明相关的经济冲击、金融传染机制及其相互作用是系统性事件的主要来源。使用模拟引擎获得的结果类似于常见的基于市场的系统性风险指标,并在经验上证实了现有文献的发现。这一框架为监管机构和央行提供了一个研究系统性风险及其发展的工具,指出系统性事件和银行的特殊违约有不同的驱动因素,因此意味着不同的政策回应。
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引用次数: 18
Redemption in Kind and Mutual Fund Liquidity Management 实物赎回与共同基金流动性管理
Pub Date : 2020-09-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3527846
V. Agarwal, Honglin Ren, Ke Shen, Haibei Zhao
Open-end mutual funds can use redemption in kind to satisfy investor redemptions by delivering securities instead of cash. We find that funds that reserve their rights to redeem in kind experience less redemption after poor performance. Evidence from actual in-kind transactions reveals several unique mechanisms for redemption in kind to mitigate fund runs, including the delivery of more illiquid stocks and stocks with greater tax overhang. Funds also suffer less from the adverse impact of outflows on their performance. On the other hand, redeeming investors bear significant liquidation costs when they are forced to sell securities on their own.
开放式共同基金可以使用实物赎回来满足投资者的赎回,通过交付证券而不是现金。我们发现,保留实物赎回权的基金在业绩不佳后赎回较少。来自实际实物交易的证据揭示了几种独特的实物赎回机制,以缓解资金挤兑,包括交付更多非流动性股票和税收负担更大的股票。资金外流对基金业绩的不利影响也较小。另一方面,当赎回投资者被迫自行出售证券时,他们承担了巨大的清算成本。
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引用次数: 7
Looking for New Lenses: How Regulation Should Cope with the Financial Market Infrastructures Evolution 寻找新的视角:监管应如何应对金融市场基础设施的演变
Pub Date : 2020-09-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3759177
Carmine Di Noia, Luca Filippa
Description of the evolution of financial market infrastructures in the last 30 years, focussed on changes in governance (from public or mutual entities to for-profit organisations, often listed), location (from country-based to international), business (from revenues linked to listing and trading to information services and post-trading) and market (from domestic monopoly to global competition). Impact on regulation and supervision: the traditional micro-prudential and investor protection issues are now more and more intertwined with macro-stability and antitrust issues which may lead to some reshape the institutional architecture, especially in the framework of Capital Markets Union in the European Union.
描述过去30年来金融市场基础设施的演变,重点关注治理(从公共或共同实体到营利性组织,通常是上市),位置(从基于国家到国际),业务(从与上市和交易相关的收入到信息服务和交易后)和市场(从国内垄断到全球竞争)的变化。对监管的影响:传统的微观审慎和投资者保护问题现在越来越多地与宏观稳定和反垄断问题交织在一起,这可能导致一些制度架构的重塑,特别是在欧盟资本市场联盟的框架下。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Regulation of Financial Institutions eJournal
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