Developing grain import strategies to alleviate the pressure of China’s imports on global environment is an important sustainability challenge in the coming decades; however, insufficient attention has been paid to the net impact on the global environment and the trade-off between different environmental consequences. Therefore, this study employed the WITCH-GLOBIOM and GAEZ models to evaluate the net environmental impact of China's future grain imports under different import strategies—keep status quo (KSQ), greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction (GER), and aims at cropland saving (CLS)—and proposed a sustainable import strategy. It is found that China’s grain imports will peak in 2035 at around 26.07∼160.8 Mt. Compared with domestic production, import of grains excluding rice (CER) is projected to cumulatively reduce GHG emissions by 59.96∼75.52 Mt CO2eq during 2021–2050, while rice imports will lead to an increase of -5.32∼59.83 Mt CO2eq. Imported grains will consume about 1.86–12.6 Mha more cropland than domestic production, which increases the risk of global deforestation and grassland clearing. The trade-offs between GHG emissions and cropland saving can be addressed by adopting a cropland-saving strategy for CER imports and a GHG emission reduction strategy for rice imports. Producing more rice domestically would both reduce stress on the global environment and increase China’s food self-sufficiency. This study aims to identify and compare environmentally preferable import patterns and propose a more sustainable strategy portfolio under multiple scenarios.
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