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The Rationale for Interventions to Foster Child Development 促进儿童发展干预措施的基本原理
Pub Date : 2019-06-25 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.42
S. Berlinski, M. Vera-Hernandez
Socioeconomic gradients in health, cognitive, and socioemotional skills start at a very early age. Well-designed policy interventions in the early years can have a great impact in closing these gaps. Advancing this line of research requires a thorough understanding of how households make human capital investment decisions on behalf of their children, what their information set is, and how the market, the environment, and government policies affect them. A framework for this research should describe how children’s skills evolve and how parents make choices about the inputs that model child development, as well as the rationale for government interventions, including both efficiency and equity considerations.
健康、认知和社会情感技能的社会经济梯度从很小的时候就开始了。早期精心设计的政策干预可以对缩小这些差距产生巨大影响。推进这一研究方向,需要彻底了解家庭如何为子女做出人力资本投资决策,他们的信息集是什么,以及市场、环境和政府政策如何影响他们。这项研究的框架应该描述儿童的技能是如何发展的,父母如何对儿童发展模式的投入做出选择,以及政府干预的基本原理,包括效率和公平的考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Considering Health-Systems Constraints in Economic Evaluation in Low- and Middle-Income Settings 考虑低收入和中等收入环境中经济评价中的卫生系统限制
Pub Date : 2019-06-25 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780190625979.013.38
A. Vassall, F. Bozzani, K. Hanson
In order to secure effective service access, coverage, and impact, it is increasingly recognized that the introduction of novel health technologies such as diagnostics, drugs, and vaccines may require additional investment to address the constraints under which many health systems operate. Health-system constraints include a shortage of health workers, ineffective supply chains, or inadequate information systems, or organizational constraints such as weak incentives and poor service integration. Decision makers may be faced with the question of whether to invest in a new technology, including the specific health system strengthening needed to ensure effective implementation; or they may be seeking to optimize resource allocation across a range of interventions including investment in broad health system functions or platforms. Investment in measures to address health-system constraints therefore increasingly need to undergo economic evaluation, but this poses several methodological challenges for health economists, particularly in the context of low- and middle-income countries. Designing the appropriate analysis to inform investment decisions concerning new technologies incorporating health systems investment can be broken down into several steps. First, the analysis needs to comprehensively outline the interface between the new intervention and the system through which it is to be delivered, in order to identify the relevant constraints and the measures needed to relax them. Second, the analysis needs to be rooted in a theoretical approach to appropriately characterize constraints and consider joint investment in the health system and technology. Third, the analysis needs to consider how the overarching priority- setting process influences the scope and output of the analysis informing the way in which complex evidence is used to support the decision, including how to represent and manage system wide trade-offs. Finally, there are several ways in which decision analytical models can be structured, and parameterized, in a context of data scarcity around constraints. This article draws together current approaches to health system thinking with the emerging literature on analytical approaches to integrating health-system constraints into economic evaluation to guide economists through these four issues. It aims to contribute to a more health-system-informed approach to both appraising the cost-effectiveness of new technologies and setting priorities across a range of program activities.
为了确保有效的服务获取、覆盖范围和影响,人们日益认识到,采用诊断、药物和疫苗等新型卫生技术可能需要额外的投资,以解决许多卫生系统运行所面临的制约因素。卫生系统制约因素包括卫生工作者短缺、供应链无效或信息系统不完善,或组织制约因素,如激励不力和服务整合不良。决策者可能面临是否投资于一项新技术的问题,包括确保有效实施所需的具体卫生系统加强;或者,他们可能正在寻求在一系列干预措施中优化资源配置,包括对广泛的卫生系统功能或平台的投资。因此,对解决卫生系统制约因素的措施的投资越来越需要进行经济评估,但这给卫生经济学家带来了一些方法上的挑战,特别是在低收入和中等收入国家的背景下。设计适当的分析,为有关纳入卫生系统投资的新技术的投资决策提供信息,可分为几个步骤。首先,分析需要全面概述新的干预与实施干预的制度之间的联系,以便确定有关的制约因素和放松这些制约因素所需的措施。其次,分析需要植根于一种理论方法,以适当地描述制约因素,并考虑卫生系统和技术的联合投资。第三,分析需要考虑总体优先级设置过程如何影响分析的范围和输出,从而为使用复杂证据来支持决策的方式提供信息,包括如何表示和管理系统范围内的权衡。最后,在围绕约束的数据稀缺性环境中,有几种方法可以对决策分析模型进行结构化和参数化。本文将当前的卫生系统思维方法与新兴的关于将卫生系统约束纳入经济评估的分析方法的文献结合起来,以指导经济学家通过这四个问题。它的目的是促进采用一种更加了解卫生系统的方法来评价新技术的成本效益和在一系列方案活动中确定优先事项。
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引用次数: 4
Economic Evaluation of Medical Screening 医学筛查的经济评价
Pub Date : 2019-06-25 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780190625979.013.377
E. Aas, E. Burger, K. Pedersen
The objective of medical screening is to prevent future disease (secondary prevention) or to improve prognosis by detecting the disease at an earlier stage (early detection). This involves examination of individuals with no symptoms of disease. Introducing a screening program is resource demanding, therefore stakeholders emphasize the need for comprehensive evaluation, where costs and health outcomes are reasonably balanced, prior to population-based implementation. Economic evaluation of population-based screening programs involves quantifying health benefits (e.g., life-years gained) and monetary costs of all relevant screening strategies. The alternative strategies can vary by starting- and stopping-age, frequency of the screening and follow-up regimens after a positive test result. Following evaluation of all strategies, the efficiency frontier displays the efficient strategies and the country-specific cost-effectiveness threshold is used to determine the optimal, i.e., most cost-effective, screening strategy. Similar to other preventive interventions, the costs of screening are immediate, while the health benefits accumulate after several years. Hence, the effect of discounting can be substantial when estimating the net present value (NPV) of each strategy. Reporting both discounting and undiscounted results is recommended. In addition, intermediate outcome measures, such as number of positive tests, cases detected, and events prevented, can be valuable supplemental outcomes to report. Estimating the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies is often based on decision-analytic models, synthesizing evidence from clinical trials, literature, guidelines, and registries. Decision-analytic modeling can include evidence from trials with intermediate or surrogate endpoints and extrapolate to long-term endpoints, such as incidence and mortality, by means of sophisticated calibration methods. Furthermore, decision-analytic models are unique, as a large number of screening alternatives can be evaluated simultaneously, which is not feasible in a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Still, evaluation of screening based on RCT data are valuable as both costs and health benefits are measured for the same individual, enabling more advanced analysis of the interaction of costs and health benefits. Evaluation of screening involves multiple stakeholders and other considerations besides cost-effectiveness, such as distributional concerns, severity of the disease, and capacity influence decision-making. Analysis of harm-benefit trade-offs is a useful tool to supplement cost-effectiveness analyses. Decision-analytic models are often based on 100% participation, which is rarely the case in practice. If those participating are different from those not choosing to participate, with regard to, for instance, risk of the disease or condition, this would result in selection bias, and the result in practice could deviate from the results based on 100% par
医学筛查的目的是预防未来的疾病(二级预防)或通过在早期发现疾病(早期发现)来改善预后。这包括对没有疾病症状的个体进行检查。实施筛查规划需要大量资源,因此利益攸关方强调,在基于人群的实施之前,需要进行全面评估,在成本和健康结果之间取得合理平衡。以人群为基础的筛查项目的经济评估包括量化所有相关筛查策略的健康效益(例如,获得的寿命年)和货币成本。备选策略可根据开始和停止年龄、筛查频率和阳性检测结果后的随访方案而有所不同。在对所有策略进行评估后,效率边界显示了有效的策略,而具体国家的成本效益阈值用于确定最优,即最具成本效益的筛查策略。与其他预防性干预措施类似,筛查的成本是立竿见影的,而健康益处是在几年后积累起来的。因此,在估计每种策略的净现值(NPV)时,贴现的影响可能是实质性的。建议报告贴现和未贴现结果。此外,中间结果指标,如阳性检测数、发现病例数和预防事件数,可作为有价值的补充结果报告。评估替代筛查策略的成本效益通常基于决策分析模型,综合临床试验、文献、指南和登记的证据。决策分析模型可以包括来自具有中间或替代终点的试验的证据,并通过复杂的校准方法外推到长期终点,如发病率和死亡率。此外,决策分析模型是独一无二的,因为可以同时评估大量筛选方案,这在随机对照试验(RCT)中是不可行的。尽管如此,基于随机对照试验数据的筛查评估是有价值的,因为对同一个人的成本和健康效益都进行了测量,从而能够更深入地分析成本和健康效益之间的相互作用。筛查的评估涉及多个利益攸关方以及成本效益之外的其他考虑,例如分布问题、疾病严重程度和能力影响决策。损益权衡分析是补充成本效益分析的有用工具。决策分析模型通常基于100%的参与,这在实践中很少出现。如果参与的人与没有选择参与的人不同,例如,在疾病或状况的风险方面,这将导致选择偏差,并且实践中的结果可能偏离基于100%参与的结果。开发新的诊断方法或预防性干预措施需要重新评估筛查的成本效益。例如,如果一种疾病的治疗变得更有效,筛查的成本效益就会降低。同样,疫苗的引入(例如宫颈癌人乳头瘤病毒疫苗接种)可能会影响筛查的成本效益。有了从登记处获得的个人层面的数据,就有机会在分析中更好地反映筛查对健康行为的异质性和长期后果。
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引用次数: 0
Health Insurance Plan Choice and Switching 健康保险计划选择和转换
Pub Date : 2019-06-25 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.51
J. Winter, Amelie Wuppermann
Choice of health insurance plans has become a key element of many healthcare systems around the world along with a general expansion of patient choice under the label of “Consumer-Directed Healthcare.” Allowing consumers to choose their insurance plan was commonly associated with the aim of enhancing competition between insurers and thus to contribute to the efficient delivery of healthcare. However, the evidence is accruing that consumers have difficulties in making health insurance decisions in their best interest. For example, many consumers choose plans with which they spend more in terms of premiums and out-of-pocket costs than in other available options. This has consequences for the individual consumer’s budget as well as for the functioning of the insurance market. The literature puts forward several possible reasons for consumers’ difficulties in making health insurance choices in their best interest. First, consumers may not have a sufficient level of knowledge of insurance products; for example, they might not understand insurance terminology. Second, the environment or architecture in which consumers make their decision may be too complicated. Health insurance products vary in a large number of features that consumers have to evaluate when comparing options, introducing search or hassle costs. Third, consumers may be prone to psychological biases and employ decision-making heuristics that impede good choices. For example, they might choose the plan with the cheapest premium, ignoring other important plan features that determine total cost, such as copayments. There is also evidence that consumer education programs, simplification of the choice environment, or introducing nudges such as setting smart defaults facilitate consumer decision making. Despite recent progress in our understanding of consumer choices in health insurance markets, important challenges remain. Evidence-based healthcare policy should be based on an evaluation of whether different interventions aimed at facilitating consumer choices result in welfare improvements. Ultimately, this requires measuring consumer utility, an issue that is vividly debated in the literature. Furthermore, welfare calculations necessitate an understanding of how interventions will affect the supply of health insurance, including supply reactions to changes in demand. This depends on the specific regulatory setting and characteristics of the specific market.
健康保险计划的选择已经成为世界各地许多医疗保健系统的一个关键因素,同时在“消费者导向医疗保健”的标签下,患者选择的普遍扩大。允许消费者选择他们的保险计划通常与加强保险公司之间竞争的目的有关,从而有助于有效地提供医疗保健。然而,越来越多的证据表明,消费者在做出符合自己最大利益的医疗保险决定时遇到了困难。例如,许多消费者选择的保险计划在保费和自付费用方面比其他可选方案花费更多。这对个人消费者的预算以及保险市场的运作都产生了影响。文献提出了几个可能的原因,消费者的困难作出健康保险的选择在他们的最佳利益。首先,消费者对保险产品的了解程度可能不够;例如,他们可能不理解保险术语。其次,消费者做出决策的环境或架构可能过于复杂。健康保险产品有很多不同的功能,消费者在比较选择、引入搜索或麻烦成本时必须对这些功能进行评估。第三,消费者可能容易产生心理偏见,并采用阻碍良好选择的决策启发式。例如,他们可能会选择保费最低的计划,而忽略了决定总成本的其他重要计划功能,如共同支付。也有证据表明,消费者教育计划、简化选择环境或引入诸如设置智能默认值等推动因素有助于消费者做出决策。尽管最近我们对消费者在健康保险市场上的选择的理解有所进展,但仍然存在重大挑战。以证据为基础的卫生保健政策应以评估旨在促进消费者选择的不同干预措施是否会改善福利为基础。最终,这需要衡量消费者效用,这是一个在文献中生动辩论的问题。此外,福利计算需要了解干预措施将如何影响医疗保险的供应,包括供应对需求变化的反应。这取决于具体的监管环境和具体市场的特点。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Government Policy on Pharmaceutical Drug Innovation 政府政策对药品创新的影响
Pub Date : 2019-06-25 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.77
A. Chit, P. Grootendorst
Drug companies are profit-maximizing entities, and profit is, by definition, revenue less cost. Here we review the impact of government policies that affect sales revenues earned on newly developed drugs and the impact of policies that affect the cost of drug development. The former policies include intellectual property rights, drug price controls, and the extension of public drug coverage to previously underinsured groups. The latter policies include regulations governing drug safety and efficacy, R&D tax credits, publicly funded basic research, and public funding for open drug discovery consortia. The latter policy, public funding of research consortia that seek to better understand the cellular pathways through which new drugs can ameliorate disease, appears very promising. In particular, a better understanding of human pathophysiology may be able to address the high failure rate of drugs undergoing clinical testing. Policies that expand market size by extending drug insurance to previously underinsured groups also appear to be effective at increasing drug R&D. Expansions of pharmaceutical intellectual property rights seem to be less effective, given the countervailing monopsony power of large public drug plans.
制药公司是利润最大化的实体,根据定义,利润是收入减去成本。在这里,我们回顾了影响新开发药物销售收入的政府政策的影响以及影响药物开发成本的政策的影响。前一项政策包括知识产权、药品价格控制以及将公共药品覆盖范围扩大到以前保险不足的群体。后者的政策包括管理药物安全性和有效性的法规、研发税收抵免、公共资助的基础研究以及为开放的药物发现联盟提供公共资金。后一项政策,即为研究财团提供公共资金,以寻求更好地了解新药可以改善疾病的细胞途径,这似乎非常有希望。特别是,更好地了解人类病理生理学可能能够解决药物在临床试验中的高失败率。通过将药品保险扩大到以前保险不足的群体来扩大市场规模的政策似乎也能有效地增加药物研发。考虑到大型公共药物计划的反补贴垄断力量,扩大制药知识产权似乎效果较差。
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引用次数: 1
Economic Incentives, Risk Behaviors, and HIV 经济激励、风险行为和艾滋病毒
Pub Date : 2019-06-25 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780190625979.013.249
S. Sosa-Rubí, O. Galárraga
Conditional economic incentives are a theoretically grounded approach for eliciting behavior change. The rationale stems from present-biased preferences, by which individuals attach greater value to benefits in the present and heavily discount long-term health. A growing literature documents the use of economic incentives in the HIV field. Small and frequent conditional economic incentives offered to vulnerable populations can contribute to behavior change. Economic incentives accompanied with other strategies can help overcome obstacles to access health services and in general seem to improve linkage to HIV care, prevention interventions, and adherence to HIV treatment. Future identification of promising combinations of intervention components, modalities, and strategies may yield maximum impact.
有条件的经济激励是引起行为改变的一种有理论依据的方法。其基本原理源于当前偏好,即个人更看重当前的利益,而严重低估长期健康。越来越多的文献记录了在艾滋病毒领域使用经济激励措施。向弱势群体提供小额和频繁的有条件经济奖励可以促进行为改变。经济激励与其他战略相结合,有助于克服获得保健服务的障碍,总体上似乎可以改善与艾滋病毒护理、预防干预和坚持艾滋病毒治疗的联系。未来确定有希望的干预成分、方式和策略组合可能产生最大的影响。
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引用次数: 2
The Economics of Informal Care 非正式护理的经济学
Pub Date : 2019-05-23 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780190625979.013.265
C. V. Houtven, Fiona Carmichael, J. Jacobs, P. Coyte
Across the globe, the most common means of supporting older disabled adults in their homes is through “informal care.” An informal carer is a family member or friend, including children or adults, who help another person because of their illness, frailty, or disability. There is a rich economics literature on the direct benefits of caregiving, including allowing the care recipient to remain at home for longer than if there was no informal care provided. There is also a growing literature outlining the associated costs of care provision. Although informal care helps individuals with disabilities to remain at home and is rewarding to many carers, there are often negative effects such as depression and lost labor market earnings that may offset some of these rewards. Economists have taken several approaches to quantify the net societal benefit of informal care that consider the degree of choice in caregiving decisions and all direct and indirect benefits and costs of informal care.
在全球范围内,在家中支持老年残疾成年人的最常见手段是通过“非正式护理”。非正式照顾者是家庭成员或朋友,包括儿童或成人,他们帮助另一个人,因为他们生病,虚弱或残疾。关于照顾的直接好处,有丰富的经济学文献,包括允许被照顾者呆在家里的时间比没有提供非正式照顾的时间更长。也有越来越多的文献概述了提供护理的相关成本。虽然非正规护理帮助残疾人留在家里,对许多护理人员来说是有益的,但往往也有负面影响,如抑郁和失去劳动力市场收入,可能会抵消一些好处。经济学家采用了几种方法来量化非正式护理的净社会效益,这些方法考虑了护理决策中的选择程度以及非正式护理的所有直接和间接收益和成本。
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引用次数: 12
Healthcare System Challenges in Asia 亚洲医疗保健系统面临的挑战
Pub Date : 2019-05-23 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780190625979.013.245
W. Yip
Important health system challenges in the east and southeast Asian countries/territories of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, China, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia exist. The most commonly adopted health system among these areas is social health insurance. The high-income, aging societies of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have adopted single-payer/single-pipe systems with a single uniform benefit package and a single fee schedule for paying providers for services included in the benefit package. All three have achieved universal coverage with relatively equitable access to affordable care. All grapple with overutilization, aging populations, and hospital-centric and curative-focused care that is ill-suited for addressing an increasing chronic disease burden. Rising patient expectations and demand for expensive technologies contribute to rising costs. Korea also faces comparatively poorer financial risk protection. China, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines have also adopted social health insurance, though not single-payer systems. China and Thailand have established noncontributory schemes, whereby the government heavily subsidizes poor and non-poor populations. General tax revenue is used to extend coverage to those outside formal-sector employment. Both countries use multiple, unintegrated schemes to cover their populations. Thailand has improved access to care and financial risk protection. While China has improved insurance coverage, financial risk protection gains have been limited due to low levels of service coverage, fee-for-service payment systems, poor gatekeeping, and the fee schedule that incentivizes overprescription of tests and medicine. Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines use contributory schemes. Government revenue provides insurance coverage for the poor, near-poor, and selected vulnerable populations; the rest of the population must contribute to enroll. Therefore, expanding insurance coverage to the informal sector has been a significant challenge. Instead of social health insurance, Hong Kong and Malaysia have two-tiered health systems where the public sector is financed by general tax revenue and the private sector is financed primarily by out-of-pocket payments and limited private insurance. There is universal access to care; free or subsidized, good-quality public-sector services provide financial risk protection. However, Hong Kong and Malaysia have fragmented delivery systems, weak primary care, budgetary strains, and inequitable access to private care (which may offer shorter wait times and better perceived quality). Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar’s health systems feature high out-of-pocket spending, low government investment in health, and reliance on external aid. User fees, low insurance coverage, unequal distribution of health services, and fragmented financing pose pressing challenges to achieving equitable access and adequate financial ri
日本、韩国、台湾、香港、马来西亚、中国、泰国、越南、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、老挝、缅甸和柬埔寨等东亚和东南亚国家/地区存在着重要的卫生系统挑战。这些地区最普遍采用的卫生制度是社会健康保险。日本、韩国和台湾的高收入老龄化社会采用了单一付款人/单一管道制度,即单一统一的福利计划和单一的收费时间表,为福利计划中包含的服务付费。这三个国家都实现了全民覆盖,并相对公平地获得负担得起的医疗服务。所有人都在努力应对过度利用、人口老龄化以及以医院为中心和以治疗为重点的护理,这些都不适合解决日益增加的慢性病负担。患者对昂贵技术的期望和需求不断上升,导致成本上升。韩国的金融风险保护也相对较差。中国、泰国、越南、印度尼西亚和菲律宾也采用了社会医疗保险,但不是单一付款人制度。中国和泰国建立了非缴费计划,由政府大量补贴穷人和非贫困人口。一般税收收入用于扩大对正规部门以外就业人员的覆盖。这两个国家都使用多种不综合的方案来覆盖其人口。泰国改善了获得护理和金融风险保护的机会。虽然中国已经改善了保险覆盖范围,但由于服务覆盖水平低、按服务收费的支付系统、把关不力以及鼓励过度处方检查和药物的收费表,财务风险保护收益有限。印度尼西亚、越南和菲律宾采用缴款计划。政府收入为穷人、准穷人和特定弱势群体提供保险;其余的人必须缴纳保险金才能注册。因此,将保险范围扩大到非正规部门一直是一项重大挑战。香港和马来西亚没有社会医疗保险,而是实行双层医疗体系,公共部门的资金来自一般税收收入,私营部门的资金主要来自自付款项和有限的私人保险。普遍获得医疗服务;免费或补贴的高质量公共部门服务提供财务风险保护。然而,香港和马来西亚的服务体系支离破碎,初级保健薄弱,预算紧张,以及获得私人护理的机会不公平(这可能会缩短等待时间,提高人们对质量的认识)。老挝、柬埔寨和缅甸卫生系统的特点是自付费用高,政府卫生投资少,依赖外援。使用者收费、保险覆盖率低、卫生服务分配不均以及融资分散,对实现公平获取和充分的财务风险保护构成了紧迫的挑战。这些国家/地区在人口统计、流行病学概况和经济发展阶段方面各不相同,因此它们面临着不同的卫生系统挑战和机遇。这种多样性还表明,这些国家/领土将利用不同类型的卫生系统实现全民健康覆盖,从而使所有人都能公平获得负担得起的优质医疗服务,并获得充分的财务风险保护。
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引用次数: 4
New Monetarist Economics 新货币主义经济学
Pub Date : 2019-05-23 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.397
Chaocheng Gu, Han-Soo Han, Randall Wright
This article provides an introduction to New Monetarist Economics. This branch of macro and monetary theory emphasizes imperfect commitment, information problems, and sometimes spatial (endogenously) separation as key frictions in the economy to derive endogenously institutions like monetary exchange or financial intermediation. We present three generations of models in development of New Monetarism. The first model studies an environment in which agents meet bilaterally and lack commitment, which allows money to be valued endogenously as means of payment. In this setup both goods and money are indivisible to keep things tractable. Second-generation models relax the assumption of indivisible goods and use bargaining theory (or related mechanisms) to endogenize prices. Variations of these models are applied to financial asset markets and intermediation. Assets and goods are both divisible in third-generation models, which makes them better suited to policy analysis and empirical work. This framework can also be used to help understand financial markets and liquidity.
这篇文章介绍了新货币主义经济学。宏观和货币理论的这一分支强调不完全承诺、信息问题,有时空间(内生)分离是经济中产生内生制度(如货币交换或金融中介)的关键摩擦。本文提出了新货币主义发展的三代模型。第一个模型研究的是这样一种环境,在这种环境中,代理人双边会面,缺乏承诺,这使得货币作为支付手段被内生地评估。在这种情况下,商品和货币都是不可分割的,以使事情易于处理。第二代模型放宽了商品不可分割的假设,并利用议价理论(或相关机制)将价格内部化。这些模型的变体被应用于金融资产市场和中介。在第三代模型中,资产和商品都是可分割的,这使得它们更适合于政策分析和实证工作。这个框架也可以用来帮助理解金融市场和流动性。
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引用次数: 2
International Capital Flow Reversals (Sudden Stops) 国际资本流动逆转(突然停止)
Pub Date : 2019-05-23 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780190625979.013.303
E. Cavallo
Sudden stops in capital flows are a form of financial whiplash that creates instability and crises in the affected economies. Sudden stops in net capital flows trigger current account reversals as countries that were borrowing on net from the rest of the world before the stop can no longer finance current account deficits. Sudden stops in gross capital flows are associated with financial instability, especially when the gross flows are dominated by volatile cross-border banking flows. Sudden stops in gross and net capital flows are episodes with an external trigger. This implies that the spark that ignites sudden stops originates outside the affected country: more specifically, in the supply of foreign financing that can halt for reasons that may be unrelated to the affected country’s domestic conditions. Yet a spark cannot generate a fire unless combustible materials are around. The literature has established that a set of domestic macroeconomic fundamentals are the combustible materials that make some countries more vulnerable than others. Higher fiscal deficits, larger current account deficits, and higher levels of foreign currency debts in the domestic financial system are manifestations of weak fundamentals that increase vulnerability. Those same factors increase the costs in terms of output losses when the crisis materializes. On the flip side, international reserves provide buffers that can help countries offset the risks. Holding foreign currency reserves hedges the fiscal position of the government providing it with more resources to respond to the crisis. While it may be impossible for countries to completely insulate themselves from the volatility of capital inflows, the choice of antidotes to prevent that volatility from forcing potentially costly external adjustments is in their own hands. The global financial architecture can be improved to support those efforts if countries could agree on and fund a more powerful international lender of last resort that resembles, at the global scale, the role of the Federal Reserve Bank in promoting financial stability in the United States.
资本流动的突然停止是一种金融打击,会在受影响的经济体中造成不稳定和危机。净资本流动突然停止,会引发经常账户逆转,因为在资本流动停止之前,那些从世界其他地区净借款的国家,无法再为经常账户赤字提供资金。资本流动总额的突然停止与金融不稳定有关,特别是当资本流动总额由波动较大的跨境银行流动主导时。总资本和净资本流动的突然停止是由外部触发的插曲。这意味着,引起突然停止的火花来自受影响国家之外:更具体地说,来自可能因与受影响国家的国内条件无关的原因而停止的外国融资供应。然而,除非周围有可燃物质,否则火花不能产生火灾。文献表明,一系列国内宏观经济基本面是可燃材料,使一些国家比其他国家更脆弱。较高的财政赤字、较大的经常账户赤字以及国内金融体系中较高水平的外币债务都是基本面疲弱的表现,从而增加了脆弱性。当危机成为现实时,这些因素也会增加产出损失的成本。另一方面,国际储备提供了缓冲,可以帮助各国抵消风险。持有外汇储备可以对冲政府的财政状况,使其有更多的资源来应对危机。虽然各国可能不可能完全使自己免受资本流入波动的影响,但如何选择解药,防止这种波动迫使可能代价高昂的外部调整,掌握在各国自己手中。如果各国能够达成一致,并为一个更强大的国际最后贷款人提供资金,那么全球金融架构就可以得到改善,以支持这些努力。在全球范围内,这个贷款人类似于美联储(Federal Reserve Bank)在促进美国金融稳定方面的作用。
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引用次数: 2
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Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance
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