Pub Date : 2002-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000613
W. Klein
This study explored whether comparisons of one's perceived absolute risk of being overweight to that of other people are predictive of concern about one's risk and intentions to reduce it. One hundred and six North American college students rated their absolute risk, concern, and intentions, and compared their risk with that of several comparison referents including average targets (e.g., ‘the average same-sex student in the US’), single targets (e.g., ‘best friend’), temporal targets (e.g., ‘yourself a few years ago’), and exemplar targets (e.g., ‘prototypical person with weight problem’). Participants showed high concern and intentions when comparing unfavorably with many of the average targets, even when controlling for absolute risk. Comparisons with single targets were generally related to concern, though not to intentions. Temporal and exemplar comparisons were unrelated to concern and intentions. Comparative risk (particularly with average targets) may elicit worry about one's risk and encourage protective measures, irrespective of one's absolute risk.
{"title":"Comparative risk estimates relative to the average peer predict behavioral intentions and concern about absolute risk","authors":"W. Klein","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000613","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000613","url":null,"abstract":"This study explored whether comparisons of one's perceived absolute risk of being overweight to that of other people are predictive of concern about one's risk and intentions to reduce it. One hundred and six North American college students rated their absolute risk, concern, and intentions, and compared their risk with that of several comparison referents including average targets (e.g., ‘the average same-sex student in the US’), single targets (e.g., ‘best friend’), temporal targets (e.g., ‘yourself a few years ago’), and exemplar targets (e.g., ‘prototypical person with weight problem’). Participants showed high concern and intentions when comparing unfavorably with many of the average targets, even when controlling for absolute risk. Comparisons with single targets were generally related to concern, though not to intentions. Temporal and exemplar comparisons were unrelated to concern and intentions. Comparative risk (particularly with average targets) may elicit worry about one's risk and encourage protective measures, irrespective of one's absolute risk.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"141 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128163336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2002-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000534
Gideon Yaniv
The self-discovery of a suspicious symptom often brings about an emotional turbulence: while recognizing the importance of having the symptom diagnosed promptly, individuals frequently delay diagnosis, seeking to avoid the pain or discomfort associated with the diagnostic process and fearing to hear that they are developing a serious illness. The present paper proposes a rational, economic-oriented approach to explaining individuals' delay behavior, weighing the fear of the diagnostic procedure and of being told the suspected truth against the fear of consequence of further procrastination. Assuming that the money costs of diagnosis and medical treatment are borne by health insurance, a multi-period expected-utility maximization model is constructed to inquire into the individual's decision of whether and to what extent to delay diagnosis. The results rationalize a variety of observed behavior concerning individuals' reaction to suspicious symptoms that differ in their psychic cost of diagnosis, the likelihood of indicating severe illness and the potential damage to health incurred by delayed diagnosis. The desirability of delayed diagnosis to the health insurer and the socially desired solution are finally discussed.
{"title":"Rational delay in applying for potentially life-saving diagnosis","authors":"Gideon Yaniv","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000534","url":null,"abstract":"The self-discovery of a suspicious symptom often brings about an emotional turbulence: while recognizing the importance of having the symptom diagnosed promptly, individuals frequently delay diagnosis, seeking to avoid the pain or discomfort associated with the diagnostic process and fearing to hear that they are developing a serious illness. The present paper proposes a rational, economic-oriented approach to explaining individuals' delay behavior, weighing the fear of the diagnostic procedure and of being told the suspected truth against the fear of consequence of further procrastination. Assuming that the money costs of diagnosis and medical treatment are borne by health insurance, a multi-period expected-utility maximization model is constructed to inquire into the individual's decision of whether and to what extent to delay diagnosis. The results rationalize a variety of observed behavior concerning individuals' reaction to suspicious symptoms that differ in their psychic cost of diagnosis, the likelihood of indicating severe illness and the potential damage to health incurred by delayed diagnosis. The desirability of delayed diagnosis to the health insurer and the socially desired solution are finally discussed.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130265565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2002-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000546
W. G. Doubleday
Utility theory as developed by Von Neuman and Morgenstern provides an elegant way to make consistent choices among risky alternatives by maximizing the expected value of a personal utility function over known probability distributions of outcomes. The theory is usually presented in the context of a single (possibly complex) decision, where it gives little guidance on the choice of a utility function. This paper provides a tutorial on the consequences of applying expected utility theory to repeated decisions, using theory and simulation to reveal the statistical regularity arising cumulatively from repeatedly applying the same utility. If decisions are repeated and consequences accumulate, two utility functions stand out as maximizing cumulative incremental growth and cumulative compound growth, namely the linear utility and the logarithmic utility, respectively. Repeatedly basing decisions on the linear utility when compound growth applies and severe losses are possible can be disastrous in the long term. Relevance to financial investment and population catastrophes is considered.
{"title":"Expected utility and the cumulative consequences of repeated decisions: a tutorial","authors":"W. G. Doubleday","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000546","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000546","url":null,"abstract":"Utility theory as developed by Von Neuman and Morgenstern provides an elegant way to make consistent choices among risky alternatives by maximizing the expected value of a personal utility function over known probability distributions of outcomes. The theory is usually presented in the context of a single (possibly complex) decision, where it gives little guidance on the choice of a utility function. This paper provides a tutorial on the consequences of applying expected utility theory to repeated decisions, using theory and simulation to reveal the statistical regularity arising cumulatively from repeatedly applying the same utility. If decisions are repeated and consequences accumulate, two utility functions stand out as maximizing cumulative incremental growth and cumulative compound growth, namely the linear utility and the logarithmic utility, respectively. Repeatedly basing decisions on the linear utility when compound growth applies and severe losses are possible can be disastrous in the long term. Relevance to financial investment and population catastrophes is considered.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129804186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2002-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000571
W. Klein
When people attempt to evaluate their personal standing on a variety of dimensions, they often compare themselves with others. This assertion was central to the development of social comparison theory (Festinger, 1954), and has stimulated nearly 50 years of research – primarily in the areas of social psychology, clinical psychology, organizational behavior, and sociology. Social comparison processes have been explored in a broad range of domains including coping, negotiation, academic and work performance, happiness, emotion, and motivation. Numerous volumes have appeared on extensions and applications of the theory, including a recent handbook edited by Suls and Wheeler (2000).
{"title":"Social comparison and risk judgment: recent work and new directions","authors":"W. Klein","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000571","url":null,"abstract":"When people attempt to evaluate their personal standing on a variety of dimensions, they often compare themselves with others. This assertion was central to the development of social comparison theory (Festinger, 1954), and has stimulated nearly 50 years of research – primarily in the areas of social psychology, clinical psychology, organizational behavior, and sociology. Social comparison processes have been explored in a broad range of domains including coping, negotiation, academic and work performance, happiness, emotion, and motivation. Numerous volumes have appeared on extensions and applications of the theory, including a recent handbook edited by Suls and Wheeler (2000).","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132422847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2002-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000509
R. Skjong, M. Eknes
Decisions based on risk analysis require some form of risk acceptance criteria. Presently the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has initiated an activity on developing a risk-based approach to safety and environmental protection regulations. Explicit risk estimates are new to the organisation. A limited number of FSA trial apllications have been presented so far. Whilst giving increased general knowledge of the risk level in the industry, the debate about risk acceptance has just started. The objective of this paper is to outline an approach by which societal risk acceptance criteria may be established. The idea is to discriminate between activities representing different risks and importance to society. The societal risk acceptance criteria are calibrated against occupational fatality rates, and transportation fatality rate for scheduled air traffic worldwide. Examples are given for some different ship types. For the sake of discussion a societal risk acceptance for Near Earth objects colliding with the Earth is also derived. It should be noted that many other criteria would be needed in the decision process, like for example individual risks, criteria based on cost effectiveness, and criteria for environmental consequences. Normally a decision would have to be based on acceptance by all these criteria. Only one specific method to arrive at societal risk criteria is dealt with herein. The examples given for some ship types show that when the importance to the society is accounted for, the established FN acceptance curves vary within 1 to 2 orders of magnitude. The outlined method may be considered for any type of activity above a certain size. An obvious limitation for the method is represented by activities of high economic value with low labour intensity in remote places, for example exploitation of offshore oil and gas resources.
{"title":"Societal risk and societal benefits","authors":"R. Skjong, M. Eknes","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000509","url":null,"abstract":"Decisions based on risk analysis require some form of risk acceptance criteria. Presently the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has initiated an activity on developing a risk-based approach to safety and environmental protection regulations. Explicit risk estimates are new to the organisation. A limited number of FSA trial apllications have been presented so far. Whilst giving increased general knowledge of the risk level in the industry, the debate about risk acceptance has just started. The objective of this paper is to outline an approach by which societal risk acceptance criteria may be established. The idea is to discriminate between activities representing different risks and importance to society. The societal risk acceptance criteria are calibrated against occupational fatality rates, and transportation fatality rate for scheduled air traffic worldwide. Examples are given for some different ship types. For the sake of discussion a societal risk acceptance for Near Earth objects colliding with the Earth is also derived. It should be noted that many other criteria would be needed in the decision process, like for example individual risks, criteria based on cost effectiveness, and criteria for environmental consequences. Normally a decision would have to be based on acceptance by all these criteria. Only one specific method to arrive at societal risk criteria is dealt with herein. The examples given for some ship types show that when the importance to the society is accounted for, the established FN acceptance curves vary within 1 to 2 orders of magnitude. The outlined method may be considered for any type of activity above a certain size. An obvious limitation for the method is represented by activities of high economic value with low labour intensity in remote places, for example exploitation of offshore oil and gas resources.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129416195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2002-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000522
J. Harvey, G. Erdos
This study investigates the relationship between expressed consumption of proteins and attitudes towards GM foods. 600 shoppers in a city centre supermarket were surveyed concerning attitudes towards GM foods and the frequency of consumption of various proteins. In addition, various demographic variables were measured. In terms of demographics, sex was the best predictor of consumption and attitudes, followed by socioeconomic status and age. Attitudes were found to correlate positively with consumption of several proteins. Explanations are offered in terms of the theories of reasoned action, cognitive dissonance and attribution and the health belief model.
{"title":"An empirical study of protein consumption and attitudes to genetically modified food","authors":"J. Harvey, G. Erdos","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000522","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the relationship between expressed consumption of proteins and attitudes towards GM foods. 600 shoppers in a city centre supermarket were surveyed concerning attitudes towards GM foods and the frequency of consumption of various proteins. In addition, various demographic variables were measured. In terms of demographics, sex was the best predictor of consumption and attitudes, followed by socioeconomic status and age. Attitudes were found to correlate positively with consumption of several proteins. Explanations are offered in terms of the theories of reasoned action, cognitive dissonance and attribution and the health belief model.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127230802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2002-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000479
B. Mazzarotta
The opportunity of switching from road to rail or to a combination of road and rail (intermodal) transport is being considered in many countries with the objective of risk reduction in the transport of dangerous goods. This work presents a quantitative approach based on risk analysis for comparing the hazards of road, rail, and intermodal transport, aimed at defining criteria for selecting the safest transport modality. When comparing road and rail transport, the risk mainly depends on the hazardous characteristics of the product. The size of the containers is generally larger for rail transport than for road transport, and consequently the amount of product potentially released, giving rise to impact areas slightly or significantly larger for rail than for road transport. When comparing road and intermodal transport, route length plays the most significant role: the longer the distance, the safer the intermodal transport.
{"title":"Risk reduction when transporting dangerous goods: road or rail?","authors":"B. Mazzarotta","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000479","url":null,"abstract":"The opportunity of switching from road to rail or to a combination of road and rail (intermodal) transport is being considered in many countries with the objective of risk reduction in the transport of dangerous goods. This work presents a quantitative approach based on risk analysis for comparing the hazards of road, rail, and intermodal transport, aimed at defining criteria for selecting the safest transport modality. When comparing road and rail transport, the risk mainly depends on the hazardous characteristics of the product. The size of the containers is generally larger for rail transport than for road transport, and consequently the amount of product potentially released, giving rise to impact areas slightly or significantly larger for rail than for road transport. When comparing road and intermodal transport, route length plays the most significant role: the longer the distance, the safer the intermodal transport.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123515324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2002-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000467
J. A. Cooper
Modern transport systems are complex, therefore requiring highly effective management decision tools. These tools would aid in ranking alternatives, allocating resources, and certifying critical transportation operations. Existing methods may not accommodate the dynamics of changing environments and personnel threats. They also may not handle hard-to-quantify, disparate data, and may be unable to realistically estimate uncertainty. In this paper, the authors discuss a coordinated set of ongoing model development efforts to overcome such difficulties.
{"title":"Decision analysis for transportation risk management","authors":"J. A. Cooper","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000467","url":null,"abstract":"Modern transport systems are complex, therefore requiring highly effective management decision tools. These tools would aid in ranking alternatives, allocating resources, and certifying critical transportation operations. Existing methods may not accommodate the dynamics of changing environments and personnel threats. They also may not handle hard-to-quantify, disparate data, and may be unable to realistically estimate uncertainty. In this paper, the authors discuss a coordinated set of ongoing model development efforts to overcome such difficulties.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116899792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2002-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000492
K. Kosmowski, M. Kwiesielewicz
The paper addresses basic issues associated with incorporating human and organizational factors in risk analysis of hazardous systems. A conceptual framework has been developed for systematic incorporating these factors in probabilistic models and the risk assessment to be used for the safety management. The methodology outlined in the paper is a synthesis or generalization of techniques and procedures used for performing HRA in the context of PSA, applying both the quantitative and qualitative methods. The similarities and differences of hierarchical influence diagrams (HIDs) compared with hierarchical structures of the AHP method and the influence diagrams used in the FSA methodology developed by IMO are examined. Illustrative examples are included. Finally a fuzzy extension of the proposed approach is introduced.
{"title":"Hierarchical influence diagrams for incorporating human and organizational factors in risk assessment of hazardous industrial systems","authors":"K. Kosmowski, M. Kwiesielewicz","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000492","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000492","url":null,"abstract":"The paper addresses basic issues associated with incorporating human and organizational factors in risk analysis of hazardous systems. A conceptual framework has been developed for systematic incorporating these factors in probabilistic models and the risk assessment to be used for the safety management. The methodology outlined in the paper is a synthesis or generalization of techniques and procedures used for performing HRA in the context of PSA, applying both the quantitative and qualitative methods. The similarities and differences of hierarchical influence diagrams (HIDs) compared with hierarchical structures of the AHP method and the influence diagrams used in the FSA methodology developed by IMO are examined. Illustrative examples are included. Finally a fuzzy extension of the proposed approach is introduced.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125656750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2002-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000510
J. Harvey, G. Erdos, H. Bolam, D. Gregory
In a nuclear processing plant, four departments were compared using a 60-item questionnaire measuring safety attitudes and beliefs including the perception of managers' attitudes and behaviour, communication and risk-taking, and attitudes to taking personal responsibility for safety. Results suggest some differences at the conceptual level in addition to departmental differences and large grade differences. It is proposed that there are certainly two and possibly more differing safety cultures within this organization. The implications of this are discussed in terms of policy.
{"title":"An examination of different safety cultures in a nuclear processing plant","authors":"J. Harvey, G. Erdos, H. Bolam, D. Gregory","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000510","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000510","url":null,"abstract":"In a nuclear processing plant, four departments were compared using a 60-item questionnaire measuring safety attitudes and beliefs including the perception of managers' attitudes and behaviour, communication and risk-taking, and attitudes to taking personal responsibility for safety. Results suggest some differences at the conceptual level in addition to departmental differences and large grade differences. It is proposed that there are certainly two and possibly more differing safety cultures within this organization. The implications of this are discussed in terms of policy.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130453818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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