Pub Date : 2002-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000480
S. Eisinger, E. Zio
Genetic algorithm search techniques provide an innovative and robust means of optimization in complex, multivariate real-scale problems. In this paper we present an application of genetic algorithms to the optimization of airport operation and development for an increasing traffic situation. The approach is proven successful and much less time consuming compared to traditional what-if analysis. In addition to the base case optimization results, sensitivity analyses both with respect to the economic parameters of the fitness function, subject to the optimization, and with respect to some important genetic algorithm settings have been performed and yield consistent results.
{"title":"Optimization of air transport logistics by genetic algorithms","authors":"S. Eisinger, E. Zio","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000480","url":null,"abstract":"Genetic algorithm search techniques provide an innovative and robust means of optimization in complex, multivariate real-scale problems. In this paper we present an application of genetic algorithms to the optimization of airport operation and development for an increasing traffic situation. The approach is proven successful and much less time consuming compared to traditional what-if analysis. In addition to the base case optimization results, sensitivity analyses both with respect to the economic parameters of the fitness function, subject to the optimization, and with respect to some important genetic algorithm settings have been performed and yield consistent results.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"34 19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116544057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2001-12-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000412
C. Palmer, Lisa K. Carlstrom, J. Woodward
A Simplified Conjoint Expected Risk (SCER: Holtgrave and Weber, 1993) model-based approach was used to explore differences in the perceived risk of a variety of financial and health activities among Caucasians, African-Americans, Mexican-Americans, and Taiwanese-Americans. The SCER model postulates that the perceived risk of an activity is a function of five dimensions: the subjective probability of harm, benefit, and status quo, and the subjective expected harm and benefit. This model offers a framework in which to apply qualitative and quantitative approaches in order to identify and to assess the generality of ethnic group differences in the relative weight attached to probability and expected outcome information, the subjective valuation of probabilities and expected outcomes, and the perceived harms and benefits. Results demonstrated that the primary and most generalised locus of ethnic group perceived risk differences is the relative importance attached to probability and expected outcome information. As predicted, these differences tended to mirror ethnic group differences in orientation toward uncertainty. By decomposing differences in terms of the elements of the SCER model, these results demonstrate that risk communication and policy efforts in ethnically diverse countries should recognise the role of the relative weight attached to the likelihood and magnitude of harm and benefit in risk perception. Clarifying the bases for differences in perceived risk among ethnic groups may provide a better understanding of conflict over environmental or other issues and aid in the development of effective strategies for communicating about risk and negotiating solutions to important policy problems.
本研究以简化联合预期风险(SCER: Holtgrave and Weber, 1993)模型为基础，探讨白种人、非裔美国人、墨西哥裔美国人和台湾裔美国人对各种金融和健康活动感知风险的差异。SCER模型假设一项活动的感知风险是五个维度的函数:主观的伤害概率、收益和现状，以及主观的预期伤害和收益。该模型提供了一个应用定性和定量方法的框架，以便识别和评估种族群体差异的普遍性，包括对概率和预期结果信息的相对权重，对概率和预期结果的主观评估，以及感知到的危害和利益。结果表明，种族群体感知风险差异的主要和最普遍的位点是对概率和预期结果信息的相对重要性。正如预测的那样，这些差异往往反映了种族群体对不确定性取向的差异。通过分解SCER模型要素方面的差异，这些结果表明，在种族多样化的国家，风险沟通和政策努力应该认识到风险感知中危害和利益的可能性和程度的相对权重的作用。澄清各族裔群体在感知风险方面存在差异的基础，可能有助于更好地了解在环境或其他问题上的冲突，并有助于制定有效战略，就风险问题进行沟通，并就重要政策问题的解决办法进行谈判。
{"title":"Risk perception and ethnicity","authors":"C. Palmer, Lisa K. Carlstrom, J. Woodward","doi":"10.1017/S1357530901000412","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530901000412","url":null,"abstract":"A Simplified Conjoint Expected Risk (SCER: Holtgrave and Weber, 1993) model-based approach was used to explore differences in the perceived risk of a variety of financial and health activities among Caucasians, African-Americans, Mexican-Americans, and Taiwanese-Americans. The SCER model postulates that the perceived risk of an activity is a function of five dimensions: the subjective probability of harm, benefit, and status quo, and the subjective expected harm and benefit. This model offers a framework in which to apply qualitative and quantitative approaches in order to identify and to assess the generality of ethnic group differences in the relative weight attached to probability and expected outcome information, the subjective valuation of probabilities and expected outcomes, and the perceived harms and benefits. Results demonstrated that the primary and most generalised locus of ethnic group perceived risk differences is the relative importance attached to probability and expected outcome information. As predicted, these differences tended to mirror ethnic group differences in orientation toward uncertainty. By decomposing differences in terms of the elements of the SCER model, these results demonstrate that risk communication and policy efforts in ethnically diverse countries should recognise the role of the relative weight attached to the likelihood and magnitude of harm and benefit in risk perception. Clarifying the bases for differences in perceived risk among ethnic groups may provide a better understanding of conflict over environmental or other issues and aid in the development of effective strategies for communicating about risk and negotiating solutions to important policy problems.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126646399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2001-12-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000394
S. Farrow, B. Morel
Implementing a Precautionary Principle can mean different things to different people. Policy analysts may believe that finding a quantitative approach to the Principle would remove ambiguity over fundamental issues. We demonstrate that one approach to quantifying the Precautionary Principle does not necessarily solve what we call the ‘continuation framing problem’. That problem is based in the competing perspectives of stakeholders when they view their own activity as the status quo and a change in that activity as causing irreversible costs. Even a shared analytic framework, here that of real options analysis, does not remove the need for political decisions about property rights in differing uses of the atmosphere.
{"title":"Continuation rights, precautionary principle, and global change","authors":"S. Farrow, B. Morel","doi":"10.1017/S1357530901000394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530901000394","url":null,"abstract":"Implementing a Precautionary Principle can mean different things to different people. Policy analysts may believe that finding a quantitative approach to the Principle would remove ambiguity over fundamental issues. We demonstrate that one approach to quantifying the Precautionary Principle does not necessarily solve what we call the ‘continuation framing problem’. That problem is based in the competing perspectives of stakeholders when they view their own activity as the status quo and a change in that activity as causing irreversible costs. Even a shared analytic framework, here that of real options analysis, does not remove the need for political decisions about property rights in differing uses of the atmosphere.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116353732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2001-12-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000424
S. Hansson, Martin Peterson
The notion of residual obligations can be used as a tool to overcome, at least in part, the conflict between the individual's prima facie right not to be exposed to involuntary risks, and the rights of industries and other large organisations to carry out activities that are associated with risks. A typology of residual obligations is developed, and it is applied in a discussion of the moral obligations of those who impose risks on others. The major types are obligations to compensate, to communicate, to improve, to search for knowledge, and to have an appropriate attitude. It is argued that conscientious compliance with risk-related residual obligations is an essential component of what makes it morally acceptable to expose others to risk.
{"title":"Rights, risks, and residual obligations","authors":"S. Hansson, Martin Peterson","doi":"10.1017/S1357530901000424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530901000424","url":null,"abstract":"The notion of residual obligations can be used as a tool to overcome, at least in part, the conflict between the individual's prima facie right not to be exposed to involuntary risks, and the rights of industries and other large organisations to carry out activities that are associated with risks. A typology of residual obligations is developed, and it is applied in a discussion of the moral obligations of those who impose risks on others. The major types are obligations to compensate, to communicate, to improve, to search for knowledge, and to have an appropriate attitude. It is argued that conscientious compliance with risk-related residual obligations is an essential component of what makes it morally acceptable to expose others to risk.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132784521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2001-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000357
K. E. Kunzer
{"title":"The effects of international trade treaties on public participation in health, safety, and environmental decisions","authors":"K. E. Kunzer","doi":"10.1017/S1357530901000357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530901000357","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124080588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2001-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S135753090100031X
S. Hunt, L. Frewer
The aim of this research is to determine whether people in the UK associate genetically modified food (GM food) with the ‘mad cow’ disease (or BSE) issue, and explain any such association in terms of analogical reasoning. Further, to test whether a lack of perceived ‘control over exposure’ to GM food accounts for the heightened vulnerability it is typically associated with. Two consecutive questionnaires were administered in various regions of the UK. The first asked 200 participants to indicate whether they regarded GM food as a health risk, and to spontaneously identify issues similar to GM food. The second asked a further 200 to rate the similarity between GM food and BSE, Salmonella, and food irradiation, and to give personal and general risk ratings for consuming GM food, and tolerance ratings for its availability and availability if ‘always clearly labelled’. The results indicate GM food is overwhelmingly identified as a health risk, and that BSE is widely held to be analogous with GM food. However, BSE was rated as less similar to GM food than food irradiation. The widespread identification of BSE as an analogue is explained in terms of it representing a ‘worst-case scenario’. The risk ratings are consistent with the heightened sense of vulnerability associated with GM food; the tolerance ratings are greater for the availability of GM food if ‘always clearly labelled’, indicating a perceived lack of control over exposure to GM food accounts, in part, for GM food risk perceptions. However, the results also indicate that, in terms of practical risk management, labelling may only be effective with respect to a younger age group.
{"title":"Impact of BSE on attitudes to GM food","authors":"S. Hunt, L. Frewer","doi":"10.1017/S135753090100031X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S135753090100031X","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this research is to determine whether people in the UK associate genetically modified food (GM food) with the ‘mad cow’ disease (or BSE) issue, and explain any such association in terms of analogical reasoning. Further, to test whether a lack of perceived ‘control over exposure’ to GM food accounts for the heightened vulnerability it is typically associated with. Two consecutive questionnaires were administered in various regions of the UK. The first asked 200 participants to indicate whether they regarded GM food as a health risk, and to spontaneously identify issues similar to GM food. The second asked a further 200 to rate the similarity between GM food and BSE, Salmonella, and food irradiation, and to give personal and general risk ratings for consuming GM food, and tolerance ratings for its availability and availability if ‘always clearly labelled’. The results indicate GM food is overwhelmingly identified as a health risk, and that BSE is widely held to be analogous with GM food. However, BSE was rated as less similar to GM food than food irradiation. The widespread identification of BSE as an analogue is explained in terms of it representing a ‘worst-case scenario’. The risk ratings are consistent with the heightened sense of vulnerability associated with GM food; the tolerance ratings are greater for the availability of GM food if ‘always clearly labelled’, indicating a perceived lack of control over exposure to GM food accounts, in part, for GM food risk perceptions. However, the results also indicate that, in terms of practical risk management, labelling may only be effective with respect to a younger age group.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123734669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2001-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000345
Vern R. Walker
{"title":"A functional analysis of food safety regulation in the United States","authors":"Vern R. Walker","doi":"10.1017/S1357530901000345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530901000345","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129631577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2001-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000369
D. Runkle
{"title":"Court appointed scientific experts: a demonstration project of the American Association for the Advancement of Science","authors":"D. Runkle","doi":"10.1017/S1357530901000369","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530901000369","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121840729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2001-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000308
Jonathan Aldred
There is now a relatively well-developed critique of the application of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to environmental problems. Theories of deliberative democracy have been invoked which question the individualistic, preference-based calculus of CBA. While the critique of CBA is well developed, the positive accounts of the virtues of deliberation appear relatively sketchy. This is a very large task, but the paper argues one important aspect of it can be captured by the following question: What are the relative merits of public deliberation about the environment, vis-a-vis private reporting of individual judgements? The paper addresses this question by seeking to analyse in detail the virtues of discussion in one widely debated deliberative institution, the citizens' jury. Throughout, the paper draws on the experience of a citizens' jury on an environmental problem: a jury on wetland restoration in East Anglia, UK, co-organized by the author.
{"title":"Citizens' juries: discussion, deliberation and rationality","authors":"Jonathan Aldred","doi":"10.1017/S1357530901000308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530901000308","url":null,"abstract":"There is now a relatively well-developed critique of the application of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to environmental problems. Theories of deliberative democracy have been invoked which question the individualistic, preference-based calculus of CBA. While the critique of CBA is well developed, the positive accounts of the virtues of deliberation appear relatively sketchy. This is a very large task, but the paper argues one important aspect of it can be captured by the following question: What are the relative merits of public deliberation about the environment, vis-a-vis private reporting of individual judgements? The paper addresses this question by seeking to analyse in detail the virtues of discussion in one widely debated deliberative institution, the citizens' jury. Throughout, the paper draws on the experience of a citizens' jury on an environmental problem: a jury on wetland restoration in East Anglia, UK, co-organized by the author.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125581607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2001-06-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530901000333
J. Applegate
{"title":"Judicial review of risk assessment: substance or procedure?","authors":"J. Applegate","doi":"10.1017/S1357530901000333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530901000333","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131864195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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