An application of Genetic Algorithms (GAs) to reliability analysis in rare events is presented. The application is directed towards the enhancement of the computational capability in the analysis. As an exemplified application, GAs are utilized for searching the point of maximum likelihood of failure probability, referred to as the design point. The design point is then used as the center of the sampling density in Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) by which the computation of low probability becomes efficient. The most advantageous aspect of GAs is that the explicitness of limit-state-function in terms of basic random variables is not required in their search operation. The determination of the design point is thus made possible in the problems involved with complex systems where implicit limit-state-functions are naturally encountered. Consequently, the reliability analysis of broader classes of systems with the interest in rare events can be realized and efficiently accomplished by such an application of GAs.
{"title":"An application of genetic algorithms to reliability analysis in rare events","authors":"C. Suparattaya, N. Harnpornchai","doi":"10.1080/713926641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/713926641","url":null,"abstract":"An application of Genetic Algorithms (GAs) to reliability analysis in rare events is presented. The application is directed towards the enhancement of the computational capability in the analysis. As an exemplified application, GAs are utilized for searching the point of maximum likelihood of failure probability, referred to as the design point. The design point is then used as the center of the sampling density in Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) by which the computation of low probability becomes efficient. The most advantageous aspect of GAs is that the explicitness of limit-state-function in terms of basic random variables is not required in their search operation. The determination of the design point is thus made possible in the problems involved with complex systems where implicit limit-state-functions are naturally encountered. Consequently, the reliability analysis of broader classes of systems with the interest in rare events can be realized and efficiently accomplished by such an application of GAs.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"293 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132788981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Intending the present paper as a contribution towards precautionary decision-making, the authors give a brief overview and summary of their experience in the modelling of different judgements admitted within the framework of the theory of coherent imprecise previsions and of possible use in reliability analysis. The paper specifically focuses on direct, comparative, structural and unreliable judgements.
{"title":"Variety of judgements admitted in imprecise statistical reasoning","authors":"I. Kozine, L. Utkin","doi":"10.1080/713926640","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/713926640","url":null,"abstract":"Intending the present paper as a contribution towards precautionary decision-making, the authors give a brief overview and summary of their experience in the modelling of different judgements admitted within the framework of the theory of coherent imprecise previsions and of possible use in reliability analysis. The paper specifically focuses on direct, comparative, structural and unreliable judgements.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126432796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A method of economic, reliability and functional analysis related to discrete transport systems is presented. The proposed analysis is based on observations of changes of states and their coincidence. The Monte Carlo simulation is used for proper reliability and functional parameters calculation. No restriction on the system structure and on a kind of distribution is the main advantage of the method. The problem is essential in vehicle maintenance defining. Authors present an exemplar system analysis.
{"title":"Economic analysis of discrete transport systems","authors":"K. Kaplon, J. Mazurkiewicz, T. Walkowiak","doi":"10.1080/713926647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/713926647","url":null,"abstract":"A method of economic, reliability and functional analysis related to discrete transport systems is presented. The proposed analysis is based on observations of changes of states and their coincidence. The Monte Carlo simulation is used for proper reliability and functional parameters calculation. No restriction on the system structure and on a kind of distribution is the main advantage of the method. The problem is essential in vehicle maintenance defining. Authors present an exemplar system analysis.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"145 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123227446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The problem of the Bayes estimation of the failure rate is considered when the reliability data are presented in a vague form. It is also assumed that the prior information about the estimated failure rate is given in the form of the gamma distribution with imprecisely defined parameters. Fuzzy sets are used to model the lack of precision. The formulae are given for the fuzzy Bayes estimator of the failure rate.
{"title":"Bayes life-time tests with imprecise input information","authors":"O. Hryniewicz","doi":"10.1080/713926639","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/713926639","url":null,"abstract":"The problem of the Bayes estimation of the failure rate is considered when the reliability data are presented in a vague form. It is also assumed that the prior information about the estimated failure rate is given in the form of the gamma distribution with imprecisely defined parameters. Fuzzy sets are used to model the lack of precision. The formulae are given for the fuzzy Bayes estimator of the failure rate.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121052148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Methods of survivor search domains determination currently recommended by International Maritime Organisation (IMO) are reviewed. Their details are highlighted and a new method based on a probabilistic approach to the solution of this problem is recommended. A semi-markov model of the process of hydro-meteorological conditions changing is constructed. To describe the survivor position a two-dimensional stochastic process is used. Parametric equations of survivor drift trend curves for different survivors are determined. The search domains in which different survivors are placed are determined. The methods of parameters estimation are proposed separately for all considered parts of the model. They are presented in the form of algorithms giving successive steps, which should be done to evaluate these unknown model parameters on the base of statistical data coming from experiments performed at the sea.
{"title":"On determination of survivor search domain at sea restricted areas","authors":"Agnieszka Blokus, K. K. ˙£Owrocki","doi":"10.1080/713926638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/713926638","url":null,"abstract":"Methods of survivor search domains determination currently recommended by International Maritime Organisation (IMO) are reviewed. Their details are highlighted and a new method based on a probabilistic approach to the solution of this problem is recommended. A semi-markov model of the process of hydro-meteorological conditions changing is constructed. To describe the survivor position a two-dimensional stochastic process is used. Parametric equations of survivor drift trend curves for different survivors are determined. The search domains in which different survivors are placed are determined. The methods of parameters estimation are proposed separately for all considered parts of the model. They are presented in the form of algorithms giving successive steps, which should be done to evaluate these unknown model parameters on the base of statistical data coming from experiments performed at the sea.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130608269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of this paper is to show how the stochastic Petri nets, commonly used in reliability field to model the functional and dysfunctional behaviour of industrial systems and to assess their dependability, are also able to give some interesting information on their global performance, which can be exploited from a technical and economical point of view. By this way the Petri nets can be used, in some cases, to identify the best configuration of system being under design and to determine the right number of spares to be kept in store. Thus, this engineering approach could be an alternative to optimization methods.
{"title":"An engineering approach to optimize system design and spare parts inventory","authors":"J. Chabot, Y. Dutuit, A. Rauzy, J. Signoret","doi":"10.1080/713926645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/713926645","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to show how the stochastic Petri nets, commonly used in reliability field to model the functional and dysfunctional behaviour of industrial systems and to assess their dependability, are also able to give some interesting information on their global performance, which can be exploited from a technical and economical point of view. By this way the Petri nets can be used, in some cases, to identify the best configuration of system being under design and to determine the right number of spares to be kept in store. Thus, this engineering approach could be an alternative to optimization methods.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131310714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The objective of this paper is to offer both a tool – in sense of an instrument – and a method for failure generation and injection. The purpose is to verify system safety analyses concerning safety relevant wirings. Specifications and properties of failure modes and the tool are described as well as the application of the method. Finally, the applicability of the approach is discussed.
{"title":"Hardware failure generation and injection for testing safety relevant wirings","authors":"U. Rakowsky, C. Kurpanik","doi":"10.1080/713926644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/713926644","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this paper is to offer both a tool – in sense of an instrument – and a method for failure generation and injection. The purpose is to verify system safety analyses concerning safety relevant wirings. Specifications and properties of failure modes and the tool are described as well as the application of the method. Finally, the applicability of the approach is discussed.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123695691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this study is to illustrate the combined use of generalized stochastic Petri networks (GSPNs) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) in reliability and availability analysis. A GSPN/MCS model is developed for the evaluation of the availability of the high-pressure injection system (HPIS) of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). Because of the high reliability of the components, a forced Monte Carlo simulation scheme was adopted. The system performance is quantified in terms of unavailability, mean down time and mean number of failures. Various alternatives of preventive maintenance are investigated, including the effect of changing the time intervals between two consecutive inspections.
{"title":"Embedding Monte Carlo simulation within the stochastic Petri network formalism for the evaluation of the availability of a nuclear safety system","authors":"D. Ionescu, E. Zio, A. Constantinescu","doi":"10.1080/713926642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/713926642","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to illustrate the combined use of generalized stochastic Petri networks (GSPNs) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) in reliability and availability analysis. A GSPN/MCS model is developed for the evaluation of the availability of the high-pressure injection system (HPIS) of a pressurized water reactor (PWR). Because of the high reliability of the components, a forced Monte Carlo simulation scheme was adopted. The system performance is quantified in terms of unavailability, mean down time and mean number of failures. Various alternatives of preventive maintenance are investigated, including the effect of changing the time intervals between two consecutive inspections.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124135192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2002-12-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000601
F. Gibbons, D. J. Lane, M. Gerrard, E. Pomery, Carrie L. Lautrup
This study examined the relations between risk cognitions and risk behavior. Adolescents’ perceptions of the risks associated with driving after drinking (DAD) and their perceptions of the prevalence of this behavior among their peers were assessed, and these perceptions were used to predict their DAD behavior. Results provided evidence of a type of cognitive social influence: the more common adolescents thought the behavior was, the less risk, both personal and general, they attributed to it. As expected, however, this relation was significant only for those who were high in a tendency to engage in social comparison. Perceptions of risk, in turn, were prospectively related to risk behavior for all participants. Specifically, low perceived risk, especially personal risk, was associated with an increase in DAD behavior. Implications of the results for DAD interventions are discussed.
{"title":"Drinking and driving: a prospective assessment of the relation between risk cognitions and risk behavior","authors":"F. Gibbons, D. J. Lane, M. Gerrard, E. Pomery, Carrie L. Lautrup","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000601","url":null,"abstract":"This study examined the relations between risk cognitions and risk behavior. Adolescents’ perceptions of the risks associated with driving after drinking (DAD) and their perceptions of the prevalence of this behavior among their peers were assessed, and these perceptions were used to predict their DAD behavior. Results provided evidence of a type of cognitive social influence: the more common adolescents thought the behavior was, the less risk, both personal and general, they attributed to it. As expected, however, this relation was significant only for those who were high in a tendency to engage in social comparison. Perceptions of risk, in turn, were prospectively related to risk behavior for all participants. Specifically, low perceived risk, especially personal risk, was associated with an increase in DAD behavior. Implications of the results for DAD interventions are discussed.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"103 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116491155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2002-12-01DOI: 10.1017/S1357530902000662
T. Zaleskiewicz, Z. Piskorz, A. Borkowska
In 1999 a research program was started with the goal of finding the main reasons that influence people's decisions to insure themselves against losses caused by flood. In a field study a questionnaire that measured perception of the flood risk and motives for insuring or not insuring against the consequences of this disaster was used. The data were collected on a group of 66 households that were hit by flood in 1997. As expected, the results showed that the insurance decisions were related to a few basic psychological factors of flood-risk perception. The most important finding was that people who reported greater fear while thinking about flood bought insurance more often after the flood had occurred than people who did not report fear. Another factor of flood-risk perception, knowledge about flood, was not related to any aspect of insurance decisions. The practical implications of these findings are discussed.
{"title":"Fear or money? Decisions on insuring oneself against flood","authors":"T. Zaleskiewicz, Z. Piskorz, A. Borkowska","doi":"10.1017/S1357530902000662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357530902000662","url":null,"abstract":"In 1999 a research program was started with the goal of finding the main reasons that influence people's decisions to insure themselves against losses caused by flood. In a field study a questionnaire that measured perception of the flood risk and motives for insuring or not insuring against the consequences of this disaster was used. The data were collected on a group of 66 households that were hit by flood in 1997. As expected, the results showed that the insurance decisions were related to a few basic psychological factors of flood-risk perception. The most important finding was that people who reported greater fear while thinking about flood bought insurance more often after the flood had occurred than people who did not report fear. Another factor of flood-risk perception, knowledge about flood, was not related to any aspect of insurance decisions. The practical implications of these findings are discussed.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130240450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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