Eric D Raile, Pavielle Haines, Amber N W Raile, Elizabeth A Shanahan, David C W Parker
The way political identity serves as a foundation for political polarization in the United States permits elites to extend conflict rapidly to new issue areas. Further, the types of cognitive mechanisms and shortcuts used in the politically polarized information environment are similar to some of those used in risk perception. Consequently, political elites may easily create partisan risk positions, largely through politically focused social amplification of risk. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a natural experiment for testing predictions about such risk politics. We asked questions about pandemic-related views, behaviors, and policies at the outset of the pandemic in April 2020 and again in September 2020 via public opinion surveys. Our data and analyses focus primarily on a single state, with some analysis extended to four states. We begin by demonstrating strong linkages between political partisan identification on the one hand and support for co-partisan elites, use of partisan information sources, and support for co-partisan policies on the other hand. We then find evidence that pandemic risk positions correspond with partisan information sources and find support for a mechanism involving partisan-tinted evaluation of elite cues. Partisan risk positions quickly became part of the larger polarized structure of political support and views. Finally, our evidence shows on the balance that partisan risk positions related to the pandemic coalesced and strengthened over time. Overall, while self-identified Democrats consistently viewed the coronavirus as the primary threat, self-identified Republicans quickly pivoted toward threats to their freedoms and to the economy.
{"title":"Political identity and risk politics: Evidence from a pandemic.","authors":"Eric D Raile, Pavielle Haines, Amber N W Raile, Elizabeth A Shanahan, David C W Parker","doi":"10.1111/risa.17654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17654","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The way political identity serves as a foundation for political polarization in the United States permits elites to extend conflict rapidly to new issue areas. Further, the types of cognitive mechanisms and shortcuts used in the politically polarized information environment are similar to some of those used in risk perception. Consequently, political elites may easily create partisan risk positions, largely through politically focused social amplification of risk. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a natural experiment for testing predictions about such risk politics. We asked questions about pandemic-related views, behaviors, and policies at the outset of the pandemic in April 2020 and again in September 2020 via public opinion surveys. Our data and analyses focus primarily on a single state, with some analysis extended to four states. We begin by demonstrating strong linkages between political partisan identification on the one hand and support for co-partisan elites, use of partisan information sources, and support for co-partisan policies on the other hand. We then find evidence that pandemic risk positions correspond with partisan information sources and find support for a mechanism involving partisan-tinted evaluation of elite cues. Partisan risk positions quickly became part of the larger polarized structure of political support and views. Finally, our evidence shows on the balance that partisan risk positions related to the pandemic coalesced and strengthened over time. Overall, while self-identified Democrats consistently viewed the coronavirus as the primary threat, self-identified Republicans quickly pivoted toward threats to their freedoms and to the economy.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142473785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The success of tunneling projects is crucial for infrastructure development. However, the potential leakage risk is particularly challenging due to the inherent uncertainties and fuzziness involved. To address this demanding challenge, a hybrid approach integrating the copula theory, cloud model, and risk matrix, is proposed. The dependence of multiple risk-related influential factors is explored by the construct of the copula-cloud model, and the diverse information is fused by applying the risk matrix to gain a crisp risk result. A case study is performed to test the applicability of the proposed approach, in which a risk index system consisting of nine critical factors is developed and Sobol-enabled global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is incorporated to investigate the contributions of different factors to the risk magnitude. Key findings are as follows: (1) Risk statuses of the studied three tunnel sections are perceived as under grade I (safe), II (low-risk), and III (medium-risk), respectively, and the waterproof material aspect is found prone to deteriorating the tunnel sections. Furthermore, the proposed approach allows for a better understanding of the trends in the risk statuses of the tunnel sections. (2) Strong interactions between influential factors exist and exert impacts on the final risk results, proving the necessity of studying the factor dependence. (3) The developed neutral risk matrix presents a strong robustness and displays a higher recognition capacity in risk assessment. The novelty of this research lies in the consideration of the dependence and uncertainty in multisource information fusion with a hybrid copula-cloud model, enabling to perform a robust risk assessment under different risk matrices with varying degrees of risk tolerance.
隧道工程的成功对于基础设施的发展至关重要。然而,由于其固有的不确定性和模糊性,潜在的渗漏风险尤其具有挑战性。为了应对这一严峻挑战,我们提出了一种融合了 copula 理论、云模型和风险矩阵的混合方法。通过共轭云模型的构建,探索了多种风险相关影响因素的依赖关系,并通过应用风险矩阵将各种信息融合在一起,从而获得清晰的风险结果。通过案例研究检验了所提方法的适用性,其中开发了一个由九个关键因素组成的风险指标体系,并结合索博尔全局敏感性分析(GSA)来研究不同因素对风险大小的贡献。主要结论如下(1) 所研究的三个隧道断面的风险状况分别被视为 I 级(安全)、II 级(低风险)和 III 级(中风险),并且发现防水材料方面容易导致隧道断面恶化。此外,所提出的方法还有助于更好地了解隧道断面风险状况的变化趋势。(2)影响因素之间存在强烈的相互作用,并对最终风险结果产生影响,这证明了研究因素依赖性的必要性。(3) 所开发的中性风险矩阵具有很强的稳健性,在风险评估中表现出较高的识别能力。本研究的新颖之处在于利用混合共云模型考虑了多源信息融合中的依赖性和不确定性,从而能够在不同风险矩阵下以不同的风险容忍度进行稳健的风险评估。
{"title":"Multisource information fusion for safety risk assessment in complex projects considering dependence and uncertainty.","authors":"Kai Guo, Limao Zhang","doi":"10.1111/risa.17651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17651","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The success of tunneling projects is crucial for infrastructure development. However, the potential leakage risk is particularly challenging due to the inherent uncertainties and fuzziness involved. To address this demanding challenge, a hybrid approach integrating the copula theory, cloud model, and risk matrix, is proposed. The dependence of multiple risk-related influential factors is explored by the construct of the copula-cloud model, and the diverse information is fused by applying the risk matrix to gain a crisp risk result. A case study is performed to test the applicability of the proposed approach, in which a risk index system consisting of nine critical factors is developed and Sobol-enabled global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is incorporated to investigate the contributions of different factors to the risk magnitude. Key findings are as follows: (1) Risk statuses of the studied three tunnel sections are perceived as under grade I (safe), II (low-risk), and III (medium-risk), respectively, and the waterproof material aspect is found prone to deteriorating the tunnel sections. Furthermore, the proposed approach allows for a better understanding of the trends in the risk statuses of the tunnel sections. (2) Strong interactions between influential factors exist and exert impacts on the final risk results, proving the necessity of studying the factor dependence. (3) The developed neutral risk matrix presents a strong robustness and displays a higher recognition capacity in risk assessment. The novelty of this research lies in the consideration of the dependence and uncertainty in multisource information fusion with a hybrid copula-cloud model, enabling to perform a robust risk assessment under different risk matrices with varying degrees of risk tolerance.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142401145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen of concern for cancer patients, who face higher morbidity and mortality rates than the general population. The neutropenic diet (ND), which excludes fresh produce, is often utilized to mitigate this risk; however, an analysis weighing the theoretical listeriosis risk reduction of produce exclusion aspects of the ND and possible negative tradeoffs has never been conducted. Consequently, this work constructed decision analytic models using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to compare the impacts of the ND, such as increased neutropenic enterocolitis (NEC) likelihood, with three alternative dietary practices (safe food handling [SFH], surface blanching, and refrigeration only) across five age groups, for cancer patients who consume ready-to-eat salad. Less disruptive diets had fewer negative health impacts in all scenarios, with median alternative diet DALYs per person per chemotherapy cycle having lower values in terms of negative health outcomes (0.088-0.443) than the ND (0.619-3.102). DALYs were dominated by outcomes associated with NEC, which is more common in patients following the ND than in other diets. Switchover point analysis confirmed that, because of this discrepancy, there were no feasible values of other parameters that could justify the ND. Correspondingly, the sensitivity analysis indicated that NEC mortality rate and remaining life expectancy strongly affected DALYs, further illustrating the model's strong dependence on NEC outcomes. Given these findings, and the SFH's ease of implementation and high compliance rates, the SFH diet is recommended in place of the ND.
单核细胞增生李斯特菌是癌症患者关注的一种食源性病原体,癌症患者的发病率和死亡率均高于普通人群。中性粒细胞饮食(ND)不包括新鲜农产品,通常用于降低这种风险;然而,从未有人对中性粒细胞饮食中排除农产品的理论上李斯特菌病风险降低以及可能的负面权衡进行过分析。因此,这项研究利用残疾调整生命年(DALYs)构建了决策分析模型,比较了对食用即食沙拉的癌症患者来说,玖玖彩票android客户端的影响,如中性粒细胞减少性小肠结肠炎(NEC)可能性的增加,以及在五个年龄组中的三种替代饮食方法(安全食品处理[SFH]、表面氽烫和仅冷藏)。在所有方案中,破坏性较小的饮食对健康的负面影响较小,就负面健康结果而言,替代饮食每人每个化疗周期的残疾调整寿命年数中值(0.088-0.443)低于 ND(0.619-3.102)。DALYs主要是与NEC相关的结果,NEC在ND患者中比其他饮食更常见。转换点分析证实,由于这种差异,其他参数的可行值无法证明 ND 的合理性。相应地,敏感性分析表明,NEC 死亡率和剩余预期寿命对 DALYs 有很大影响,进一步说明了模型对 NEC 结果的高度依赖性。鉴于这些研究结果,以及 SFH 的易实施性和高达标率,建议采用 SFH 日粮代替 ND。
{"title":"A decision analysis of cancer patients and the consumption of ready-to-eat salad.","authors":"Carly B Gomez, Jade Mitchell, Bradley P Marks","doi":"10.1111/risa.17658","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17658","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen of concern for cancer patients, who face higher morbidity and mortality rates than the general population. The neutropenic diet (ND), which excludes fresh produce, is often utilized to mitigate this risk; however, an analysis weighing the theoretical listeriosis risk reduction of produce exclusion aspects of the ND and possible negative tradeoffs has never been conducted. Consequently, this work constructed decision analytic models using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to compare the impacts of the ND, such as increased neutropenic enterocolitis (NEC) likelihood, with three alternative dietary practices (safe food handling [SFH], surface blanching, and refrigeration only) across five age groups, for cancer patients who consume ready-to-eat salad. Less disruptive diets had fewer negative health impacts in all scenarios, with median alternative diet DALYs per person per chemotherapy cycle having lower values in terms of negative health outcomes (0.088-0.443) than the ND (0.619-3.102). DALYs were dominated by outcomes associated with NEC, which is more common in patients following the ND than in other diets. Switchover point analysis confirmed that, because of this discrepancy, there were no feasible values of other parameters that could justify the ND. Correspondingly, the sensitivity analysis indicated that NEC mortality rate and remaining life expectancy strongly affected DALYs, further illustrating the model's strong dependence on NEC outcomes. Given these findings, and the SFH's ease of implementation and high compliance rates, the SFH diet is recommended in place of the ND.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142401144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Human error constitutes a significant cause of accidents across diverse industries, leading to adverse consequences and heightened disruptions in maintenance operations. Organizations can enhance their decision-making process by quantifying human errors and identifying the underlying influencing factors, thereby mitigating their repercussions. Consequently, it becomes crucial to examine the value of human error probability (HEP) during these activities. The objective of this paper is to determine and simulate HEP in maintenance tasks at a cement factory, utilizing performance shaping factors (PSFs). The research employs the cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) analysis method to evaluate the dependencies, impacts, and relationships among the factors influencing human error. This approach classifies and assesses the dependencies and impacts of different factors on HEP, occupational accidents, and related costs. The study also underscores that PSFs can dynamically change under the influence of other variables, emphasizing the necessity to forecast the behavior of human error over time. Therefore, this paper utilizes the MICMAC method to analyze the interdependencies, relationships, and impact levels among different variables. These relationships are then utilized to optimize the implementation of the system dynamics (SD) method. An SD model is employed to forecast the system's behavior, and multiple scenarios are presented. By considering the HEP value, managers can adjust organizational conditions and personnel to ensure acceptability. The paper also presents various scenarios related to HEP to assist managers in making informed decisions.
人为失误是各行各业发生事故的重要原因,会造成不良后果,并加剧维护工作的中断。企业可以通过量化人为失误和识别潜在的影响因素来加强决策过程,从而减轻人为失误造成的影响。因此,在这些活动中研究人为错误概率 (HEP) 的价值变得至关重要。本文旨在利用绩效影响因素(PSF)确定和模拟水泥厂维护任务中的人为错误概率。研究采用交叉影响矩阵乘法应用于分类(MICMAC)分析方法,以评估影响人为错误的因素之间的依赖关系、影响和关系。这种方法对不同因素对 HEP、职业事故和相关成本的依赖性和影响进行了分类和评估。该研究还强调,在其他变量的影响下,PSFs 会发生动态变化,这就强调了预测人为错误随时间变化的行为的必要性。因此,本文利用 MICMAC 方法来分析不同变量之间的相互依存关系、关系和影响程度。然后利用这些关系来优化系统动力学(SD)方法的实施。我们采用 SD 模型来预测系统行为,并提出了多种方案。通过考虑 HEP 值,管理人员可以调整组织条件和人员,以确保可接受性。本文还介绍了与 HEP 相关的各种方案,以帮助管理人员做出明智的决策。
{"title":"Dynamic modeling of human error in industrial maintenance through structural analysis and system dynamics.","authors":"Vahideh Bafandegan Emroozi, Mostafa Kazemi, Alireza Pooya, Mahdi Doostparast","doi":"10.1111/risa.17652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17652","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Human error constitutes a significant cause of accidents across diverse industries, leading to adverse consequences and heightened disruptions in maintenance operations. Organizations can enhance their decision-making process by quantifying human errors and identifying the underlying influencing factors, thereby mitigating their repercussions. Consequently, it becomes crucial to examine the value of human error probability (HEP) during these activities. The objective of this paper is to determine and simulate HEP in maintenance tasks at a cement factory, utilizing performance shaping factors (PSFs). The research employs the cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) analysis method to evaluate the dependencies, impacts, and relationships among the factors influencing human error. This approach classifies and assesses the dependencies and impacts of different factors on HEP, occupational accidents, and related costs. The study also underscores that PSFs can dynamically change under the influence of other variables, emphasizing the necessity to forecast the behavior of human error over time. Therefore, this paper utilizes the MICMAC method to analyze the interdependencies, relationships, and impact levels among different variables. These relationships are then utilized to optimize the implementation of the system dynamics (SD) method. An SD model is employed to forecast the system's behavior, and multiple scenarios are presented. By considering the HEP value, managers can adjust organizational conditions and personnel to ensure acceptability. The paper also presents various scenarios related to HEP to assist managers in making informed decisions.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kuhika Gupta, Joseph Ripberger, Andrew Fox, Mark Maiello, Katie Peach, Hank Jenkins-Smith
Public knowledge and awareness about radiation (both natural and manmade) tend to be low, while perceived risk of radiation tends to be high. High perceptions of risk associated with radiation have been linked to the affect heuristic and general feelings of dread, which are often not proportionate to actual risk. For example, studies routinely show that members of the public rate the risk of radiation from nuclear power plants as significantly higher (and riskier) than radiation from medical X-rays. This disconnect can have implications for adoption of protective actions during a potential radiation emergency and the perceived efficacy of these actions. This study explores how risk communication efforts influence public risk perceptions, intended protective action, and perceived efficacy of those actions. Using unique data from a survey of New York City adults, we analyze how information provision using different formats-no information, an infographic, an informational video-impact perceptions and response to a hypothetical radiation emergency. We hypothesize that respondents who receive some information, either through the infographic or the video, will have higher perceived efficacy and are more likely to take protective action. Findings suggest that providing information about what to do during a radiation emergency has a statistically significant impact on both perceived efficacy and adoption of protective action. Respondents who saw the informational video were most likely to say that they would take the correct protective actions and had the highest perceived efficacy, followed by those who saw the infographic.
公众对辐射(包括天然辐射和人为辐射)的了解和认识往往较少,而对辐射风险的感知往往较高。对辐射风险的高感知与影响启发式和普遍的恐惧感有关,而这往往与实际风险不相称。例如,研究通常表明,公众对核电站辐射风险的评价远远高于医疗 X 射线辐射的风险。这种脱节可能会影响到在潜在辐射紧急情况下采取防护行动以及这些行动的感知效果。本研究探讨了风险交流工作如何影响公众的风险认知、预期的防护行动以及这些行动的感知效果。利用对纽约市成年人进行调查所获得的独特数据,我们分析了不同形式的信息提供(无信息、信息图表、信息视频)如何影响人们对假想辐射紧急情况的感知和反应。我们假设,通过信息图表或视频获得一些信息的受访者会有更高的感知效能,并更有可能采取保护措施。研究结果表明,提供辐射紧急情况下应采取的行动的信息对感知效能和采取保护措施都有显著的影响。看过信息视频的受访者最有可能表示他们会采取正确的防护行动,其感知效能也最高,其次是看过信息图表的受访者。
{"title":"Risk communication and public response to potential radiation emergencies in New York City.","authors":"Kuhika Gupta, Joseph Ripberger, Andrew Fox, Mark Maiello, Katie Peach, Hank Jenkins-Smith","doi":"10.1111/risa.17657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17657","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Public knowledge and awareness about radiation (both natural and manmade) tend to be low, while perceived risk of radiation tends to be high. High perceptions of risk associated with radiation have been linked to the affect heuristic and general feelings of dread, which are often not proportionate to actual risk. For example, studies routinely show that members of the public rate the risk of radiation from nuclear power plants as significantly higher (and riskier) than radiation from medical X-rays. This disconnect can have implications for adoption of protective actions during a potential radiation emergency and the perceived efficacy of these actions. This study explores how risk communication efforts influence public risk perceptions, intended protective action, and perceived efficacy of those actions. Using unique data from a survey of New York City adults, we analyze how information provision using different formats-no information, an infographic, an informational video-impact perceptions and response to a hypothetical radiation emergency. We hypothesize that respondents who receive some information, either through the infographic or the video, will have higher perceived efficacy and are more likely to take protective action. Findings suggest that providing information about what to do during a radiation emergency has a statistically significant impact on both perceived efficacy and adoption of protective action. Respondents who saw the informational video were most likely to say that they would take the correct protective actions and had the highest perceived efficacy, followed by those who saw the infographic.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, we conduct the first comprehensive, nationwide assessment of social equity performance of multiple federal post- and pre-disaster assistance programs that differ in targeted recipients, project types, forms of aid, and funding requirements. We draw on the social equity and distributive justice theory to develop and test a set of hypotheses on the influence of program design and specificity on their aid distributional patterns and equity performance. The analysis uses panel data of about 3000 US counties to examine the relationship between a county's receipt of federal assistance and its recent disaster damage, socioeconomic, demographic, political, local government, and geographic characteristics in a two-stage random effects Tobit model. Expectedly, we find that post-disaster grants are largely driven by recent disaster damage, while damage is simultaneously influenced by local socioeconomic conditions. For all disaster programs, disproportionately more federal aid is allocated to populous counties. For programs geared toward state and local governments and targeting community recovery and mitigation, more aid is received by counties with better socioeconomic conditions. Conversely, for programs targeting individual relief and recovery, more aid is given to counties with lower incomes and greater social vulnerability. Results also indicate that counties located in high-risk regions receive greater outlays. These findings shed light on the varying degrees of social equity of federal disaster assistance programs tied to their cost-share requirement, funding caps, and inherent complexity of application procedures.
{"title":"Assessing social equity of federal disaster aid distribution: A nationwide analysis.","authors":"Qing Miao, Meri Davlasheridze, Allison C Reilly","doi":"10.1111/risa.17660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17660","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this study, we conduct the first comprehensive, nationwide assessment of social equity performance of multiple federal post- and pre-disaster assistance programs that differ in targeted recipients, project types, forms of aid, and funding requirements. We draw on the social equity and distributive justice theory to develop and test a set of hypotheses on the influence of program design and specificity on their aid distributional patterns and equity performance. The analysis uses panel data of about 3000 US counties to examine the relationship between a county's receipt of federal assistance and its recent disaster damage, socioeconomic, demographic, political, local government, and geographic characteristics in a two-stage random effects Tobit model. Expectedly, we find that post-disaster grants are largely driven by recent disaster damage, while damage is simultaneously influenced by local socioeconomic conditions. For all disaster programs, disproportionately more federal aid is allocated to populous counties. For programs geared toward state and local governments and targeting community recovery and mitigation, more aid is received by counties with better socioeconomic conditions. Conversely, for programs targeting individual relief and recovery, more aid is given to counties with lower incomes and greater social vulnerability. Results also indicate that counties located in high-risk regions receive greater outlays. These findings shed light on the varying degrees of social equity of federal disaster assistance programs tied to their cost-share requirement, funding caps, and inherent complexity of application procedures.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Secure and reliable power systems are vital for modern societies and economies. While there is a focus in the literature on predicting power outages caused by severe weather events, relatively little literature exists on identifying hot spots, locations where outages occur repeatedly and at a higher rate than expected. Reliably identifying hotspots can provide critical input for risk management efforts by power utilities, helping them to focus scarce resources on the most problematic portions of their system. In this article, we show how existing work on Moran's I spatial statistic can be adapted to identify power outage hotspots based on the types and quantities of data available to utilities in practice. The local Moran's I statistic was calculated on a grid cell level and a set of criteria were used to filter out which grid cells are considered hotspots. The hotspot identification approach utilized in this article is an easy method for utilities to use in practice, and it provides the type of information needed to directly support utility decisions about prioritizing areas of a power system to inspect and potentially reinforce.
安全可靠的电力系统对现代社会和经济至关重要。虽然文献重点关注预测恶劣天气事件造成的停电,但关于识别热点(即停电事件反复发生且发生率高于预期的地点)的文献相对较少。可靠地识别热点可为电力公司的风险管理工作提供关键信息,帮助他们将稀缺资源集中用于系统中问题最严重的部分。在本文中,我们将展示如何根据电力公司实际可用的数据类型和数量,对现有的 Moran's I 空间统计工作进行调整,以识别停电热点。在网格单元层面计算本地莫兰 I 统计量,并使用一系列标准筛选出哪些网格单元被视为热点。本文中使用的热点识别方法对于电力公司来说是一种易于在实践中使用的方法,它提供了所需的信息类型,可直接支持电力公司决定优先检查和潜在加固电力系统的区域。
{"title":"Identifying power outage hotspots to support risk management planning.","authors":"Kaia Stødle, Roger Flage, Seth D Guikema","doi":"10.1111/risa.17663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17663","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Secure and reliable power systems are vital for modern societies and economies. While there is a focus in the literature on predicting power outages caused by severe weather events, relatively little literature exists on identifying hot spots, locations where outages occur repeatedly and at a higher rate than expected. Reliably identifying hotspots can provide critical input for risk management efforts by power utilities, helping them to focus scarce resources on the most problematic portions of their system. In this article, we show how existing work on Moran's I spatial statistic can be adapted to identify power outage hotspots based on the types and quantities of data available to utilities in practice. The local Moran's I statistic was calculated on a grid cell level and a set of criteria were used to filter out which grid cells are considered hotspots. The hotspot identification approach utilized in this article is an easy method for utilities to use in practice, and it provides the type of information needed to directly support utility decisions about prioritizing areas of a power system to inspect and potentially reinforce.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Amit Gill, Maddegedara Lalith, Muneo Hori, Yoshiki Ogawa
We present an integrated framework that utilizes high-resolution seamless simulations of disasters and national economies for estimating the economic impacts of disasters. The framework consists of three components: a physics-based simulator to simulate the disaster and estimate the response of the infrastructure; a tool that estimates the losses suffered by the infrastructure based on its response; and an agent-based economic model (ABEM) that simulates the national economy considering the infrastructure damage and postdisaster decisions of the economic entities. The ABEM used in the framework has been implemented in a high-performance computing environment to simulate large economies at 1:1 scale. Furthermore, it has been calibrated to the Japanese economy using publicly available macroeconomic data and validated to the Japanese economy under the business-as-usual scenario. We demonstrate the integrated framework by simulating a potential Nankai-trough earthquake disaster and estimating its impacts on the Japanese economy. The seismic response of 1.8 million buildings of the Osaka-bay area has been estimated using a large-scale earthquake disaster simulator and corresponding repair costs are estimated using the Performance Assessment Calculation Tool. As per our estimates, repair costs amount to approximately 15 trillion Yen. Considering the investments made by impacted households and firms toward recovery, the postdisaster economy is simulated using the ABEM for 5 years under two recovery scenarios. Industrial production is expected to recover in three quarters whereas 10-13 quarters will be required to finish all the repair work.
{"title":"Analysis of postdisaster economy using high-resolution disaster and economy simulations.","authors":"Amit Gill, Maddegedara Lalith, Muneo Hori, Yoshiki Ogawa","doi":"10.1111/risa.17662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17662","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We present an integrated framework that utilizes high-resolution seamless simulations of disasters and national economies for estimating the economic impacts of disasters. The framework consists of three components: a physics-based simulator to simulate the disaster and estimate the response of the infrastructure; a tool that estimates the losses suffered by the infrastructure based on its response; and an agent-based economic model (ABEM) that simulates the national economy considering the infrastructure damage and postdisaster decisions of the economic entities. The ABEM used in the framework has been implemented in a high-performance computing environment to simulate large economies at 1:1 scale. Furthermore, it has been calibrated to the Japanese economy using publicly available macroeconomic data and validated to the Japanese economy under the business-as-usual scenario. We demonstrate the integrated framework by simulating a potential Nankai-trough earthquake disaster and estimating its impacts on the Japanese economy. The seismic response of 1.8 million buildings of the Osaka-bay area has been estimated using a large-scale earthquake disaster simulator and corresponding repair costs are estimated using the Performance Assessment Calculation Tool. As per our estimates, repair costs amount to approximately 15 trillion Yen. Considering the investments made by impacted households and firms toward recovery, the postdisaster economy is simulated using the ABEM for 5 years under two recovery scenarios. Industrial production is expected to recover in three quarters whereas 10-13 quarters will be required to finish all the repair work.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Perceptions of efficacy play a central role in motivating people to engage in climate actions. However, there has been little investigation into how different climate efficacy beliefs are formed and how they may be associated with support for climate mitigation policies. This study, based on the motivated control framework, examines how risk perceptions may differentially be associated with four types of efficacy constructs (self-efficacy, personal outcome expectancy, collective efficacy, and collective outcome efficacy). It also places the motivated control framework in the context of the partisan information sphere and examines how exposure to partisan news may influence mitigation policy support through the mediators of risk perceptions and the efficacy constructs. Results suggest that liberal- and conservative-leaning news exposure, respectively, associate with higher and lower supports for policies. Overall, risk perception was a significant mediator, and the mediating function of efficacy varied depending on the specific construct being examined. For liberal news use, increased risk perceptions had a positive association with policy support through self-efficacy and collective outcome expectancy but also had an unexpected negative association with policy support through personal outcome expectancy and collective efficacy. For conservative news use, decreased risk perceptions resulted in further decreased beliefs of self-efficacy and collective outcome expectancy, resulting in lower levels of support for climate policies. We also find that political ideology is a significant moderator for the mediation model. Implications for climate change communication are discussed.
{"title":"The influence of partisan news on climate mitigation support: An investigation into the mediating role of perceived risk and efficacy.","authors":"Soobin Choi, P Sol Hart","doi":"10.1111/risa.17659","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17659","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Perceptions of efficacy play a central role in motivating people to engage in climate actions. However, there has been little investigation into how different climate efficacy beliefs are formed and how they may be associated with support for climate mitigation policies. This study, based on the motivated control framework, examines how risk perceptions may differentially be associated with four types of efficacy constructs (self-efficacy, personal outcome expectancy, collective efficacy, and collective outcome efficacy). It also places the motivated control framework in the context of the partisan information sphere and examines how exposure to partisan news may influence mitigation policy support through the mediators of risk perceptions and the efficacy constructs. Results suggest that liberal- and conservative-leaning news exposure, respectively, associate with higher and lower supports for policies. Overall, risk perception was a significant mediator, and the mediating function of efficacy varied depending on the specific construct being examined. For liberal news use, increased risk perceptions had a positive association with policy support through self-efficacy and collective outcome expectancy but also had an unexpected negative association with policy support through personal outcome expectancy and collective efficacy. For conservative news use, decreased risk perceptions resulted in further decreased beliefs of self-efficacy and collective outcome expectancy, resulting in lower levels of support for climate policies. We also find that political ideology is a significant moderator for the mediation model. Implications for climate change communication are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Extreme events like the credit crunch, the September 11th attacks, the coronavirus pandemic, and Hamas' attack on Israel each have in common that they should not have come as a surprise, yet still did. One reason surprises happen is that a risk assessment reflects the knowledge of the assessors, yet risk also includes uncertainties that extend beyond this knowledge. A risk assessment is thus susceptible to surprises as it focuses attention on what is known. Developing an expectation for surprises is key to their avoidance and requires that risk assessors specifically consider their "unknowledge"-that is, what they do not presently know about an event, outcome, or activity and its potential consequences and triggers. One way to emphasize the need for risk assessors to consider unknowledge is to explicitly include it as a separate component in risk-assessment frameworks. This article formalizes the inclusion of unknowledge in a contemporary risk-assessment framework.
{"title":"Out of sight but still in mind: Developing an expectation for surprises by formalizing unknowledge in a contemporary risk-assessment framework.","authors":"James Derbyshire, Terje Aven","doi":"10.1111/risa.17661","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17661","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Extreme events like the credit crunch, the September 11th attacks, the coronavirus pandemic, and Hamas' attack on Israel each have in common that they should not have come as a surprise, yet still did. One reason surprises happen is that a risk assessment reflects the knowledge of the assessors, yet risk also includes uncertainties that extend beyond this knowledge. A risk assessment is thus susceptible to surprises as it focuses attention on what is known. Developing an expectation for surprises is key to their avoidance and requires that risk assessors specifically consider their \"unknowledge\"-that is, what they do not presently know about an event, outcome, or activity and its potential consequences and triggers. One way to emphasize the need for risk assessors to consider unknowledge is to explicitly include it as a separate component in risk-assessment frameworks. This article formalizes the inclusion of unknowledge in a contemporary risk-assessment framework.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}