Risk Analysis最新文献

A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) model was developed to predict the risk of listeriosis associated with consuming ready-to-eat (RTE) products in Iran. Utilizing Monte Carlo simulation software, 79 positive cases were identified out of 2608 samples, yielding an overall prevalence of 58.5%. Prevalence varied across categories (1.01%-6.74%), with Listeria monocytogenes levels below the 100 CFU g^-1 threshold in positive samples. The 5th and 95th percentiles for annual listeriosis risk per serving were estimated for vulnerable (6.05 × 10^-8 to 1.16 × 10^-7) and general populations (1.36 × 10^-9 to 2.59 × 10^-9). The chicken Turkish kebab ranked highest in the 99th percentile for both subpopulations. Model projections included a 99th percentile estimate of 40 annual listeriosis cases, predominantly in the vulnerable population. Chicken Turkish kebab, chicken kebab, restaurant salad, traditional cheese, and RTE raw vegetables had the highest predicted cases. Sensitivity analyses emphasized the impact of serving size, prevalence, and specific product type on illness probability. The QMRA highlighted a significant listeriosis risk from contaminated RTE products, particularly for vulnerable populations. Validation through Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling tests confirmed the statistical significance (p > 0.05) of the bootstrapped model's fit.

Bird strikes pose a risk to aviation. Collisions between birds and airplanes result in a threat to human lives, economic losses, and material damage. The majority of these collisions occur on airfields during takeoff and landing. Knowing what bird species are present on airfields, in what numbers, and relating that to the extent to which these birds are involved in collisions can help to direct bird control activities to specific bird species and thus reduce bird strikes. In this article, we offer a method to quantify the risk of bird strikes at airfields based on counts of bird abundance on airfields. We analyzed bird abundance in relation to bird strike risks based on a dataset from six Dutch airfields covering three decades. We used the data to define two metrics: Species Strike Impact (SSI) and Bird Strike Risk Index (BSRI), which are both independent of aspects such as bird behavior, habitat, season, or weather. These two metrics, respectively, reflect the bird strike risk per individual of a bird species on an airfield based on hazard probability and severity (SSI), and they provide quick insight in the local status of overall bird strike risks by summing all species-related risks into one overall index (BSRI). Both metrics are calculated from counts on the airfield of birds, bird strikes, and air traffic movements. This method can be readily incorporated as a leading indicator in flight safety management at airfields, enabling bird control personnel to take risk-reducing actions targeted at specific bird species on airfields.

Forest fires are integral to forest ecosystems as they influence nutrient cycling, plant regeneration, tree density, and biodiversity. However, human-induced climate change and activities have made forest fires more frequent, more intense, and more widespread, exacerbating their ecological and socioeconomic impact. Forest fires shape Tamil Nadu's diverse forest ecosystems, yet rising anthropogenic pressure and a warmer, drier climate have increased both their frequency and severity. We used a presence-only Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to map the state-wide probability of fire occurrence and to guide the Tamil Nadu Forest Department (TNFD) in proactive suppression planning. Fire-occurrence points for 2020 (around 1900 ignitions) trained the model; independent ignitions from 2021 and 2022 (n = 2,906) validated it. Around nineteen topographic, climatic, and anthropogenic predictors, including Euclidean distance to cropland, rangeland, and roads, were resampled to 1 km resolution. The model showed excellent discrimination (AUC = 0.92) and achieved an overall test-set accuracy of 0.88 (Cohen's κ = 0.71). Distance to cropland (32.8 % permutation importance) and rangelands (25.8%) emerged as the strongest individual drivers, highlighting the combined influence of escaped agricultural burns and fuel condition on ignition risk. Jenks-optimized breaks split the landscape into Low (< 0.30), Medium (0.30-0.60), and High (≥ 0.60) classes, subsequently aggregated to the state's 2109 forest ranges. Although the High-risk zone comprises only 6.4 % of ranges (136/2109), it captured 54% of the 2021-22 ignitions, demonstrating substantial management leverage in the form of pre-season patrol planning and fuel-break maintenance. The resulting fire-probability map can help TNFD to prioritize patrol surges, pre-position water tankers, and refine early-warning bulletins for the 32 ranges exceeding the 0.80 "critical" threshold. Our approach provides a transferable template for data-poor tropical regions seeking to align limited suppression resources with the pockets of greatest ignition pressure. Future work should embed dynamic weather streams and near-real-time fuel-moisture indices to move from seasonal risk zoning toward operational early-warning.

The need for risk assessments to take full account of uncertainty by going beyond probability and creating an expectation for surprises has recently been highlighted in this journal. This paper sets out an adaptation to the Intuitive Logics (IL) scenario-planning method that assists risk assessors to achieve this aim. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this adaptation through a controlled experiment. The controlled experiment took the form of a simulated IL scenario-planning exercise in which individuals assigned values representative of extreme outcomes to sets of simple and more complex clusters of driving forces under three experimental conditions representing alternative uncertainty expressions ("probable," "plausible," and "surprising"). The values assigned in the "probable" and "plausible" conditions were not significantly different from each other. However, the "surprising" condition resulted in the assignment of more extreme values than either of the other two conditions. The complexity of a set of clustered driving forces had no effect. A follow-up analysis showed that participants interpreted the words "probable" and "plausible" similarly. This is problematic for scenario methods like IL, which are claimed to stretch consideration of the future's potential extremity beyond what it would be using probability by instead employing plausibility. If participants interpret "probable" and "plausible" similarly, then using plausibility instead of probability will not stretch their thinking as desired. By adapting IL in the simple way this paper outlines, scenario planning can assist risk assessors to go beyond both probability and plausibility, thereby taking fuller account of uncertainty and improving anticipation of surprises.

Aquaculture, although a valuable source of food, can generate significant substances that pose environmental hazards if not properly managed. The European Region (EU27) has implemented regulations and initiatives to mitigate the environmental impact of aquaculture since the early 2000s. Aquaculture has the potential to be a sustainable source of food, but it's essential to address the challenges of marine hazardous substances. Therefore, the focus of this research is to analyze the impact of the aquaculture industry on the marine hazardous chemicals within the EU27 for the years between 1990 and 2023. The methodologies of ordinary least squares (OLS), two-stage least squares (2SLS), and random least squares (RLS) estimators have been used to resolve the endogeneity problem concerning baseline regression with exogenous variables, causal reasoning with endogenous variables, as well as interference with the data and violation of the distributional assumptions. As for the effect magnitudes, aquaculture, the oil and gas industry, and the gross domestic product (GDP) were the primary contributors to marine hazardous chemicals in EU13 as opposed to EU14. Still, the precise magnitudes provided by all three estimators suggest that, in comparison to EU14 developed countries, the quality of institutions more favorably impacts the EU13 countries in terms of mitigating emissions of excess harmful substances. It is novel in this research on the European Union's (EU's) policy, which tries to combine whole-of-government technological approaches with stern regulations and active partnerships to move from the "produce-dispose" paradigm of waste aquaculture toward lower waste, more sustainable systems that align with ecological and economic goals.

Volume variation of toilet water flushing exhibits an intense association with bioaerosol emissions. However, studies on the effects of toilet flushing water on bioaerosol emissions and their quantitative health risks for exposed populations with various breathing patterns are lacking. This research systematically evaluated Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus bioaerosol concentrations, size distribution, and their decreasing ratio in a dormitory restroom under decremental volumes of toilet flushing water. The experimental measurements were then used as input data for Monte Carlo simulation-based quantitative microbiological risk assessment and sensitivity analysis. The disease burden (DB) was estimated for two exposed populations with nasal/oral breathing patterns, and key contributing input parameters were identified. The result indicates that maximum bioaerosol concentrations were detected in the highest volume of flushing water condition and minimum concentration in the lowest condition. The DB of S. aureus and E. coli bioaerosols in the highest volume of flushing water condition were 2.16-2.36 and 2.20-2.25 times higher than those in the lowest condition, respectively. E. coli and S. aureus bioaerosol DB of nasal breathing pattern were, respectively, 1.44-1.54 and 1.46-1.61 times higher than those of oral breathing pattern. Furthermore, DB of E. coli bioaerosol under various exposure scenarios was intolerable based on the World Health Organization benchmark. However, after flushing at 3.0 L per flush, S. aureus bioaerosol DB satisfied the benchmark. In all exposure scenarios, nasal and oral breathing patterns were nearly identical in terms of their coefficient ranking and percentage ratio. The first substantial contributing input parameter was the deposited concentration of bioaerosol. This study shows that reduced toilet flushing water volume lowers bioaerosol emissions and urban health risks, providing valuable insights for sustainable sanitation approaches that align water conservation with public health.

We examined hazard and risk-related metrics of the highest- and lowest-income counties and municipalities in each U.S. state. Indicators of natural and anthropogenic hazards, health outcomes, location of locally unwanted land uses, food insecurity, and other metrics were used to measure social and environmental justice. As expected, the highest-income places have better health outcomes, access to assets that protect health, and high municipal ratings of place quality compared with their poorest counterparts. Yet, they also have higher natural hazard risks and are more likely to live near concentrations of anthropogenic hazards. That is, high-income places have a lot to lose. Although the poorest jurisdictions demonstrate cumulative disadvantages, those in rural areas are exposed to less dense motor vehicle traffic and other hazards and risks associated with urban life. Relationships between income and the geography of hazards and risks are not simple. Even the highest-income areas face challenges. We suggest improvements in databases and tools to increase the focus on and monitoring of the breadth of risks people face in all areas.

Due to periodic shifts in human security needs post-disaster, recovery processes remain dynamic. However, no comprehensive study in the literature addresses periodic differences in human security dimensions. This research is the first to examine post-disaster human security dimensions with a holistic and systematic approach, and it fills a critical gap in this area. In the study, the Hesitant Fuzzy AHP (HFAHP) method was applied based on decision makers' (DMs) assessments with strategic planning authority during the February 6 Kahramanmaraş/Türkiye earthquakes. Findings highlight short-term priorities in environmental and health security, while economic security emerges as a key long-term determinant. In addition, it has been determined that political and community security dimensions gain more importance in the long term. The study also finds that failure to address these shifting priorities may pose significant risks: In the short term, unmet environmental and health needs can lead to public health crises and hinder immediate response efforts; in the long term, neglecting economic, political, and community security can jeopardize recovery, increase inequality, and undermine resilience. This study provides a new framework that guides the strategic prioritization process for disaster management and human security policies based on the experience of the disaster. The findings guide policymakers to ensure sustainable human security by improving post-disaster resource allocation and management.

This study analyzed the acceptance of solar energy in terms of energy justice. The critical issue of energy supply, demand, and transition is a process of social redistribution of risks from old to new energy systems. The question of the appropriate distribution of risks for the energy system is closely related to energy justice. Previous studies are limited in empirically testing whether or not energy justice can contribute to the acceptance of new energy system. In addition, previous studies have heavily depended on energy justice in terms of anthropocentric type. Anthropocentric definitions of energy justice have focused primarily on the benefits and costs allocated only to humans. Such an anthropocentric view of justice lacks consideration of the value of various ecological beings. Therefore, this study aims to shed light on the role of not only four anthropocentric types of energy justices but also on for four ecological ones in the acceptance of solar energy. The analysis reveals that recognitive justice, generational justice, deep ecological justice, social ecological justice, and distributional justice positively influence the acceptance of solar energy, whereas procedural justice, restorative justice, and eco-socialist justice have no effect on it. In particular, this study found that recognitive justice moderates the effect of personal norms on acceptance of solar energy, whereas restorative justice moderates the effect of knowledge on it.

The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) was a nonprofit foundation, based first as an independent, freestanding Swiss foundation in Geneva from 2003 to 2012, and then affiliated with École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Lausanne from 2012 to 2023. IRGC's mission was to identify and improve the governance of emerging and systemic risks that have, or could have, impacts on human and environmental health, the economy and society, and overall sustainability. In this paper, we recount IRGC's history, describe its many reports, workshops, and conference activities (including tables referencing the many published products), and provide six brief case histories of accomplishments and insights on work IRGC has done on solar radiation management, small modular reactors, synthetic biology, autonomous vehicles, resilience and systemic risks, and international comparison of risk governance. The paper concludes with some brief observations about the impact of IRGC's work and notes the continuing need for a neutral convening entity that can perform a role similar to that of IRGC.