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Combined BiLSTM and ARIMA models in middle- and long-term polar motion prediction 中长期极地运动预测中的 BiLSTM 和 ARIMA 组合模型
IF 0.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11200-023-0134-y
Kehao Yu, Haowei Shi, Mengqi Sun, Lihua Li, Shuhui Li, Honglei Yang, Erhu Wei

As one of the main components of the Earth orientation parameters, short-term prediction of the geodetic polar motion series is crucial in the field of deep-space exploration, high-precision positioning, and timing services, which require high real-time performance. Additionally, its middle- and long-term prediction is equally important in climate forecasting and geodynamics research. In this study, we propose the combined BiLSTM+ARIMA model, which is based on bidirectional long- and short-term memory (BiLSTM) and autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA). First, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is performed as a filter to decompose the polar motion time series to obtain low- and high-frequency signals. The EOP14 C04 time series provided by International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service and decomposed by EEMD includes low-frequency signals like the long-term trend, decadal oscillation, Chandler wobble, and prograde annual wobble, along with shorter-period high-frequency signals. Second, low- and high-frequency signals are predicted using BiLSTM and ARIMA models, respectively. Finally, the low- and high-frequency signal forecast components are reconstructed to obtain geodetic polar motion predictions. In middle- and long-term polar motion prediction, the results show that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy by up to 42% and 17%, respectively. This demonstrated that the BiLSTM+ARIMA model can effectively improve the accuracy of polar motion prediction.

作为地球方位参数的主要组成部分之一,大地极运动序列的短期预测在对实时性要求较高的深空探测、高精度定位和授时服务领域至关重要。此外,其中长期预测在气候预报和地球动力学研究中同样重要。在本研究中,我们提出了基于双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM)和自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)的 BiLSTM+ARIMA 组合模型。首先,将集合经验模式分解(EEMD)作为滤波器对极地运动时间序列进行分解,以获得低频和高频信号。由国际地球自转和参考系统服务机构提供并经 EEMD 分解的 EOP14 C04 时间序列包括长期趋势、十年振荡、钱德勒摆动和顺年摆动等低频信号,以及周期较短的高频信号。其次,分别使用 BiLSTM 和 ARIMA 模型预测低频和高频信号。最后,对低频和高频信号预测成分进行重构,以获得大地极地运动预测结果。结果表明,在中长期极地运动预测中,所提出的模型可将预测精度分别提高 42% 和 17%。这表明 BiLSTM+ARIMA 模型能有效提高极地运动预测的精度。
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引用次数: 0
A comparative study over improved fast iterative shrinkage-thresholding algorithms: an application to seismic data reconstruction 改进的快速迭代收缩阈值算法比较研究:地震数据重建应用
IF 0.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11200-023-0113-0
Hamid Reza Khatami, Mohammad Ali Riahi, Mohammad Mahdi Abedi, Afshin Akbari Dehkhargani

Seismic data reconstruction is a crucial process involving the restoration of missing or corrupted traces to create a uniform dataset for subsequent data processing. Various factors such as equipment failures, and surface obstacles, result in irregularly located or corrupted traces. The absence of these traces can compromise the quality and accuracy of the resulting image. To address this issue, the Nonuniform Fast Fourier Transform (NUFFT) method is employed to reconstruct missing traces in datasets with non-uniformly sampled data. It works by interpolating the non-uniformly sampled data onto a regular grid, enabling the traditional Fast Fourier Transform application for data recovery. This interpolation process is adjusted using a kernel function to account for non-uniform sampling and reduce aliasing artifacts. The outcome is a collection of Fourier coefficients that can be utilized to reconstruct missing or incomplete parts of data. This problem is transformed into a linear constraint problem, which is efficiently solved using the Fast Iterative Shrinkage-Thresholding Algorithm (FISTA). In this study, we explore various techniques aimed at improving the convergence of FISTA, collectively referred to as improved FISTA methods. To validate the NUFFT+FISTA method for data reconstruction, we conducted numerical tests using 3D and 2D synthetic datasets, as well as field data. These tests show the advantages of the Greedy-FISTA in terms of convergence rate and affirm the accuracy of this approach in filling missing data traces.

地震数据重建是一个关键过程,涉及恢复缺失或损坏的地震道,为后续数据处理创建统一的数据集。设备故障和地表障碍物等各种因素会导致地震道位置不规则或损坏。这些痕迹的缺失会影响所生成图像的质量和精度。为解决这一问题,采用了非均匀快速傅里叶变换 (NUFFT) 方法来重建非均匀采样数据集中缺失的轨迹。它的工作原理是将非均匀采样数据插值到规则的网格上,使传统的快速傅里叶变换应用于数据恢复。这一插值过程使用核函数进行调整,以考虑非均匀采样并减少混叠伪影。结果是一组傅里叶系数,可用于重建数据的缺失或不完整部分。这个问题被转化为一个线性约束问题,使用快速迭代收缩阈值算法(FISTA)可以有效地解决这个问题。在本研究中,我们探索了旨在提高 FISTA 收敛性的各种技术,统称为改进的 FISTA 方法。为了验证用于数据重建的 NUFFT+FISTA 方法,我们使用三维和二维合成数据集以及现场数据进行了数值测试。这些测试表明了 Greedy-FISTA 在收敛速度方面的优势,并肯定了这种方法在填补缺失数据轨迹方面的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of water content and sodium sulfate concentration on the resistivity of red clay 含水量和硫酸钠浓度对红土电阻率的影响
IF 0.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11200-023-0124-0
Yuan Xin, Qiang Sun, Tuo Lu, Huiyuan Bian, Ziyu Wang, Tao Luo

Red clay is widely distributed globally and is closely related to human production and life. The middle reaches of the Yellow River basin in China are characterized by complex geological structures, concentrated rainfall periods. The soluble salts such as sodium sulfate enter the red clay particles along with the infiltrating water, forming a red clay-like saline soil. In order to study the effects of water and salt on red clay soils, this paper uses red clay in the Heyang of Weinan with different ratios of distilled water (10–20%) and Na2SO4 (0–4%), and obtains the resistivity of red clay soils at different frequencies (100 Hz–100 kHz) using an inductance, capacitance and resistance digital bridge tester. The results show that the resistivity of red clay is negatively correlated with water and salt content. With the increase of water content, the increase of conductive paths in the pore water improved the electrical conductivity of the red clay; while when the concentration of Na2SO4 increased, the free moving anions and cations in the pore water increased, the electrical conduction efficiency increased and the resistivity decreased. The high frequency increased the conductivity of red clay by contributing to electrical double layer deformation, whereas the electrode polarization led to inhibition of conductivity under low frequency. A negative power exponential relationship exists between the resistivity of red clay and the test frequency. This study may provide a valuable reference for the rapid identification of the physical properties of red clay and its internal structure.

红土在全球分布广泛,与人类的生产和生活息息相关。中国黄河流域中游地区地质构造复杂,降雨时段集中。硫酸钠等可溶性盐分随着入渗水进入红粘土颗粒,形成红粘土状盐碱土。为了研究水和盐对红粘土的影响,本文以渭南合阳的红粘土为研究对象,加入不同比例的蒸馏水(10%-20%)和 Na2SO4(0%-4%),利用电感、电容和电阻数字电桥测试仪获得了红粘土在不同频率(100 Hz-100 kHz)下的电阻率。结果表明,红粘土的电阻率与含水量和含盐量呈负相关。随着含水量的增加,孔隙水中导电路径的增加提高了红土的导电率;而当 Na2SO4 浓度增加时,孔隙水中自由移动的阴阳离子增加,导电效率提高,电阻率降低。高频通过促进电双层变形来提高红粘土的导电率,而电极极化会抑制低频下的导电率。红粘土的电阻率与测试频率之间存在负幂指数关系。这项研究可为快速鉴定红粘土的物理性质及其内部结构提供有价值的参考。
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引用次数: 0
On correct definition and use of normal heights in geodesy 关于大地测量中正高的正确定义和使用
IF 0.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-01-13 DOI: 10.1007/s11200-023-1138-0
Pavel Novák, Fernando Sansò

Physical heights is one of the most important topics in physical geodesy. Their original concept, introduced in the 19-th century, defined physical heights as lengths of plumblines of the Earth’s gravity field between the geoid and points of interest. There are orthometric heights of surface points, that have been traditionally estimated by spirit levelling and measured gravity; however, the knowledge of the density distribution of topographic masses (masses between the geoid and Earth’s surface) is required that significantly affects their determinability. This was also the main reason why a new type of physical heights was proposed in the mid of the 20-th century. Normal heights approximate orthometric heights in a sense that the Earth’s gravity field is replaced by the normal gravity field, an analytic model based on the theory of an equipotential ellipsoid. This height system has been introduced since that time in different countries in Europe and beyond. Contrary to the classical height system based on orthometric heights, its counterpart based on normal heights may have slightly different definitions. Moreover, normal heights are often defined as heights of points above the quasigeoid. This contribution reviews alternative definitions of normal heights and respective height systems. It is argued that both orthometric and normal heights refer to the geoid. In the case physical heights are estimated by satellite positioning, normal heights must be computed through the height anomaly estimated at each point of interest, whether it is below, at or above the Earth’s surface. On the contrary, orthometric heights of all points along the same plumbline, be it below, at or above the Earth’s surface, are estimated by introducing one value of the geoid height. Normal heights of surface points can be estimated by spirit levelling easier than orthometric heights as no topographic mass density hypothesis is required; however, one has to keep in mind the gravity field approximation used both for their definition and realization.

物理高度是物理大地测量学中最重要的课题之一。19 世纪提出的最初概念将物理高程定义为地球重力场在大地水准面和感兴趣的点之间的垂线长度。传统上,地表点的正测高度是通过水准测量和重力测量估算出来的;然而,地形质量(大地水准面和地球表面之间的质量)的密度分布需要一定的知识,这极大地影响了它们的可确定性。这也是 20 世纪中期提出新型物理高度的主要原因。法线高度近似于正交高度,因为地球重力场被法线重力场取代,法线重力场是基于等势椭球理论的解析模型。从那时起,欧洲和其他地区的不同国家就开始采用这种高度系统。与基于正高的经典高度系统不同,基于法线高度的经典高度系统的定义可能略有不同。此外,法线高度通常被定义为准大地水准面以上各点的高度。这篇论文回顾了法线高度的其他定义和各自的高度系统。本文认为,正高和法高都是指大地水准面。在通过卫星定位估算物理高度的情况下,法线高度必须通过估算每个相关点的高度异常值来计算,无论该点是在地球表面之下、之上还是之下。相反,通过引入一个大地水准面高度值,就可以估算出同一垂线上所有点的正交高度,无论是在地球表面之下、之上还是之下。由于不需要地形质量密度假设,通过精神水准测量估算地表点的法线高度比估算正测高度更容易;但是,我们必须牢记在定义和实现法线高度时所使用的重力场近似值。
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引用次数: 0
Parameterization of anisotropic media by A-parameters 各向异性介质的 A 参数参数化
IF 0.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-01-13 DOI: 10.1007/s11200-023-1136-2
Ivan Pšenčík, Véronique Farra

Most common parameterization of anisotropic media is by twenty one independent elements aijkl of the density-normalized stiffness tensor or by twenty one independent elements Aαβ of the density-normalized matrix of elastic parameters in the Voigt notation. These parameters are commonly of significantly different sizes, are dimensional, in (km/s)2, often appear in combinations. We are offering an alternative parameterization by twenty one A-parameters (anisotropic parameters), which removes the mentioned disadvantages and possesses some additional useful properties. For example, axes or planes of coordinate systems, in which A-parameters are defined, need not be related to symmetry axes or planes of the considered anisotropy symmetry as required in other similar parameterizations. In combination with the first-order weak-anisotropy approximation, in which anisotropy is considered as the first-order perturbation of reference isotropy, parameterization by A-parameters yields insight into the role of individual A-parameters in the wave propagation problems. For example, it turns out that in the first-order weak-anisotropy approximation, P- and S-wave velocities are each controlled by fifteen A-parameters. A set of six of them appears only in the expression for P-wave velocity, a set of other six A-parameters appears only in S-waves velocity expressions. Remaining set of nine A-parameters is common for both waves. We present transformation of A-parameters, analogue to Bond transformation, and useful formulae for the weak-anisotropy approximation for anisotropy of any symmetry and arbitrary tilt.

各向异性介质最常用的参数化方法是用密度归一化刚度张量的二十一个独立元素 aijkl 或用 Voigt 符号表示的密度归一化弹性参数矩阵的二十一个独立元素 Aαβ。这些参数的大小通常相差很大,维数为 (km/s)2,通常以组合形式出现。我们提供了一种由 21 个 A 参数(各向异性参数)组成的替代参数化方法,它消除了上述缺点,并具有一些额外的有用特性。例如,定义 A 参数的坐标系轴或坐标系平面不必像其他类似参数化方法所要求的那样,与所考虑的各向异性对称的对称轴或对称平面相关。结合一阶弱各向异性近似(其中各向异性被视为参考各向同性的一阶扰动),用 A 参数进行参数化可以深入了解单个 A 参数在波传播问题中的作用。例如,在一阶弱各向异性近似中,P 波和 S 波速度分别由 15 个 A 参数控制。其中一组六个参数只出现在 P 波速度表达式中,另外一组六个参数只出现在 S 波速度表达式中。其余九组 A 参数在两种波中通用。我们介绍了 A 参数的变换(类似于邦德变换),以及针对任意对称和任意倾斜的各向异性的弱各向异性近似的有用公式。
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引用次数: 0
Day to night shift in reflection height of VLF radio waves derived from IRI model electron density models 根据 IRI 电子密度模型得出的甚低频无线电波反射高度的昼夜变化
IF 0.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1007/s11200-022-0959-6
Tirumalaraju Madhavilatha, Pyla Peddi Naidu, Malladi Indira Devi

The Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio wave propagation characteristics play a very important role in understanding the behaviour of the D-region. The earth-ionosphere wave guide theory has been used to evaluate the reflection height of VLF radio waves using the electron density profiles obtained from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2012 and 2016 models. For calculating the conductivity parameter, two different collision frequency models have been used. The diurnal shift in reflection height of 16-kHz VLF waves is evaluated for the midpoint of Visakhapatnam-Rugby path using the two IRI models and the results are compared with those values derived from VLF phase measurements made at Visakhapatnam. The theoretically evaluated values using the FT-2001 option for the D-region electron density profile in the IRI-2012 and IRI–2016 models are in good agreement with those obtained from phase measurements, especially in summer. The day to night shift in reflection height obtained using exponential collision critical frequency model are in good agreement with those derived from VLF phase measurements. The diurnal shift in reflection height of VLF radio waves during winter months derived from IRI models are much lower than those obtained from measurements.

甚低频(VLF)无线电波的传播特性对了解 D 区的行为起着非常重要的作用。利用国际参考电离层(IRI)2012 和 2016 模型获得的电子密度剖面,采用地球电离层波导理论来评估甚低频无线电波的反射高度。在计算电导率参数时,使用了两种不同的碰撞频率模型。使用两个 IRI 模型评估了维萨卡帕特南-鲁格比路径中点的 16 kHz VLF 波反射高度的日移,并将结果与在维萨卡帕特南进行的 VLF 相位测量得出的值进行了比较。在 IRI-2012 和 IRI-2016 模型中,使用 FT-2001 选项对 D 区域电子密度剖面进行的理论评估值与相位测量得出的值非常一致,尤其是在夏季。使用指数碰撞临界频率模型得出的反射高度昼夜变化与甚低频相位测量结果十分吻合。利用 IRI 模型得出的冬季甚低频无线电波反射高度的昼夜变化远低于测量结果。
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引用次数: 0
Anisotropy of out-of-phase magnetic susceptibility in titanomagnetite-bearing rocks due to weak field hysteresis 弱场磁滞引起的含钛磁铁矿岩石异相磁化率各向异性
IF 0.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-08-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11200-023-0603-0
František Hrouda, Josef Ježek, Martin Chadima

Properties of the out-of-phase susceptibility (opMS) of rocks and artificial specimens whose opMS is due to weak-field hysteresis, containing magnetite and titanomagnetite, were investigated and theoretical relation between degrees of the in-phase susceptibility (ipMS) and opAMS was confirmed experimentally. Pure magnetite shows virtually no field dependence of ipMS and zero opMS in fields less than 500 A m−1. In low-Ti titanomagnetite, the intensity of the ipMS variation is very low, hardly reaching 1% of the initial value. In high-Ti titanomagnetite, the intensity of ipMS variation is relatively strong reaching 50% of the initial value and that of opMS variation is even much stronger reaching multiples of the initial value. The anisotropy of ipMS (ipAMS) of artificial specimens consisting of disseminated magnetite powder in plaster of Paris is well defined, while the opAMS is virtually undetectable. In titanomagnetite-bearing volcanic and dyke rocks, the ipAMS evidently reflects the character of lava flow. The opAMS ellipsoids resemble the ipAMS ellipsoids, the degree of opAMS being significantly higher than that of ipAMS. The principal directions of ipAMS and opAMS are related closely in specimens with high-Ti titanomagnetites and only poorly in specimens with low-Ti titanomagnetites. In specimens with high-Ti titanomagnetites, there is a linear relation and very strong correlation (R2 = 0.95) between the degree of opAMS and the square of the degree of ipAMS corresponding to the theoretical relation between these degrees.

研究了含有磁铁矿和钛磁铁矿的岩石和人工试样的相外磁感应强度(opMS)特性,并通过实验证实了相内磁感应强度(ipMS)和 opAMS 之间的理论关系。纯磁铁矿的 ipMS 几乎与磁场无关,在低于 500 A m-1 的磁场中,opMS 为零。在低钛榍石中,ipMS 的变化强度非常低,几乎不超过初始值的 1%。在高钛榍石中,ipMS 的变化强度相对较强,达到初始值的 50%,而 opMS 的变化强度更大,达到初始值的数倍。由巴黎石膏中的弥散磁铁矿粉末组成的人工试样的 ipMS (ipAMS)各向异性非常明确,而 opAMS 几乎检测不到。在含钛磁铁矿的火山岩和堤坝岩中,ipAMS 显然反映了熔岩流的特征。opAMS 椭圆体与 ipAMS 椭圆体相似,但 opAMS 的程度明显高于 ipAMS。在高钛榍石标本中,ipAMS 和 opAMS 的主方向关系密切,而在低钛榍石标本中,两者的主方向关系较差。在具有高钛榍石的试样中,opAMS 度与 ipAMS 度的平方之间存在线性关系和非常强的相关性 (R2 = 0.95),与这些度之间的理论关系相对应。
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引用次数: 0
Self-similarity convolution neural network for seismic noise suppression in desert environment 自相似卷积神经网络在沙漠环境中的地震噪声抑制
IF 0.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-08-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11200-022-0535-0
Hongbo Lin, Xinyu Xu, Shigang Wang

Seismic signals are inevitably disturbed by random noise in the acquisition process, which greatly degrades seismic data. In order to improve the quality of seismic data, we propose a self-similarity convolutional neural network (SS-Net) for seismic data denoising by introducing the coherence of seismic events into convolutional neural network (CNN). The SS-Net consists of two modules, the directional matching module (DMM) and the denoising module. The DMM stacks similar seismic data blocks to generate three-dimensional (3D) groups by calculating the similarity between seismic data blocks with the same directional characteristics. For the 3D groups with redundant structural information, the following denoising module with the multi-channel convolution adaptively extracts and squeezes the structural feature characteristic of each 3D group, which enhances the characteristics of seismic signals and avoids confusion caused by local similarity of seismic signals and random noise. In addition, the skip connection is adopted by SS-Net to transport the sparse feature to the following denoising process, to reduce the loss of signal features extracted by multi-channel convolutional layers due to increased network depth. We validate the denoising performance of the SS-Net on the synthetic and field desert seismic data. The filtered results confirm that the SS-Net can suppress seismic random noise more thoroughly and recover the seismic events with complex morphology better than the competitive denoising methods.

地震信号在采集过程中不可避免地会受到随机噪声的干扰,从而大大降低了地震数据的质量。为了提高地震数据的质量,我们提出了一种用于地震数据去噪的自相似性卷积神经网络(SS-Net),将地震事件的相干性引入卷积神经网络(CNN)。SS-Net 由两个模块组成,即方向匹配模块(DMM)和去噪模块。方向匹配模块通过计算具有相同方向特征的地震数据块之间的相似性,将相似的地震数据块堆叠生成三维(3D)组。对于具有冗余结构信息的三维组,接下来的去噪模块利用多道卷积自适应地提取和挤压每个三维组的结构特征,从而增强地震信号的特征,避免因地震信号的局部相似性和随机噪声造成的混淆。此外,SS-Net 还采用了跳接技术,将稀疏特征传输到后续的去噪过程中,减少了多通道卷积层提取的信号特征因网络深度增加而造成的损失。我们在合成和野外沙漠地震数据上验证了 SS-Net 的去噪性能。滤波结果证实,SS-Net 能更彻底地抑制地震随机噪声,与其他同类去噪方法相比,能更好地恢复形态复杂的地震事件。
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引用次数: 0
Medium- and long-term prediction of length-of-day changes with the combined singular spectrum analysis and neural networks 奇异谱分析与神经网络相结合的日变化中长期预测
IF 0.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1007/s11200-022-0558-6
Yu Lei, Danning Zhao, Min Guo

Real-time estimates of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are currently unavailable for users owing to the delay caused by complex data processing and heavy computation procedures. Accurate short-term predictions of the EOP are therefore essential for several real-time applications such as navigation and tracking of interplanetary spacecrafts and precise orbit determination of Earth satellites, whilst medium- and long-term predictions are required for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) autonomous satellite navigation, climate forecasting as well as for astrogeodynamic studies. Universal time (UT1 – UTC) or its first time derivative, length of day (ΔLOD), representing the changes of the Earth’s rotation rate, are the most challenging to predict among the EOP. Various methods and techniques have been used to improve ΔLOD predictions since the present prediction accuracy is yet unsatisfactory even up a few days into the future. This study employs a popular time-series analysis method, called singular spectrum analysis (SSA), in combination with the neural network (NN) technique for medium- and long-term prediction of ΔLOD up to 2 years in the future. The SSA is first applied to extracting the predominant periodic components including annual and semiannual oscillations and irregular short-period signals in ΔLOD data. These extracted predominant periodic components are then extrapolated by the proposed SSA-based data filling strategy. Next, the residuals (the difference between these predominant components and the data themselves) are modeled and predicted by the NN technique. The predicted ΔLOD value is sum of the extrapolation of the predominant periodic components and the prediction of the residuals. The results show that the accuracy of the 180-day ahead predictions is worse than that by the combination of least squares (LS) extrapolation and a stochastic method including autoregressive and NN technology in terms of the mean absolute prediction error. However, the proposed SSA extrapolation in combination with NN modeling can achieve a noticeably better accuracy for the medium- and long-term predictions out 180 days than the combined LS + stochastic technology. The improvement in the prediction accuracy for lead time of 1 year and 2 years can reach up to 53% and 56%, respectively. The combined SSA extrapolation and NN modeling is thus very promising for medium- and long-term prediction of ΔLOD.

由于复杂的数据处理和繁重的计算程序造成的延迟,用户目前无法获得地球方位参数(EOP)的实时估计值。因此,精确的短期 EOP 预测对于若干实时应用(如星际航天器的导航和跟踪以及地球卫星的精确轨道测定)至关重要,而全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)的自主卫星导航、气候预报以及天体地球动力学研究则需要中长期预测。代表地球自转速率变化的世界时(UT1 - UTC)或其第一时间导数日长(ΔLOD)是 EOP 中最难预测的。由于目前的预测精度还不能令人满意,即使是未来几天内的预测精度也不尽人意,因此人们采用了各种方法和技术来改进ΔLOD 的预测。本研究采用一种流行的时间序列分析方法,即奇异谱分析(SSA),结合神经网络(NN)技术,对未来两年内的ΔLOD 进行中长期预测。单频谱分析首先用于提取ΔLOD 数据中的主要周期成分,包括年度和半年度振荡以及不规则的短周期信号。然后,利用所提出的基于 SSA 的数据填充策略对这些提取出的主要周期成分进行外推。接下来,利用 NN 技术对残差(这些主要成分与数据本身之间的差值)进行建模和预测。预测的 ΔLOD 值是主要周期成分外推值与残差预测值之和。结果表明,就平均绝对预测误差而言,提前 180 天预测的准确性不如最小二乘法(LS)外推法和包括自回归和 NN 技术的随机方法的组合。然而,与 LS 和随机技术相结合的方法相比,拟议的 SSA 外推法与 NN 模型相结合,可实现明显更好的 180 天中长期预测精度。1 年和 2 年的预测精度分别提高了 53% 和 56%。因此,SSA 外推法和 NN 建模相结合的方法在 ΔLOD 的中长期预测方面大有可为。
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引用次数: 0
Mesoproterozoic geomagnetic field strength from Nova Guarita mafic dykes (Amazon Craton) 亚马逊克拉通Nova Guarita岩脉的中元古代地磁场强度
IF 0.5 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1007/s11200-022-0647-6
Anita Di Chiara, Adrian R. Muxworthy, Ricrdo I. F. Trindade, Franklin Bispo-Santos, Evelyn B. Baker

Palaeointensity data from the Precambrian are key to understanding the timing of the Earth’s Inner Core Nucleation (ICN). Due to the scarcity of data, the ICN timing is still poorly constrained and is thought to have occurred between 2500 to 500 Ma. Numerical dynamo simulation models predict an increase in entropy, a stronger driving force for convection that could affect the field strength and show an anomaly in the palaeointensity record at ICN. We present new estimates of the geomagnetic field intensity (palaeointensity) from the Mid-Mesoproterozoic (1406 ± 1424 Ma) Nova Guarita dyke swarm, in the northern Mato Grosso State (SW Amazon Craton, Brazil). To obtain palaeointensity estimates, we used the non-heating Preisach method, with palaeointensity criteria at the specimen, and site level. Five sites provided accepted palaeointensity results, yielding virtual dipole moment (VDM) estimate of 65 ± 12 ZAm2 at 1416 ± 13 Ma, 53 ± 4 ZAm2 at 1418 ± 3 Ma, 12 ± 2 and 8 ± 2 ZAm2 at 1418 ± 5 Ma, and 71 ± 16 ZAm2 at 1424 ± 16 Ma, thus an average estimate of 43 ± 30 ZAm2 for ∼1410 Ma. The estimate is similar to the average VDM data (∼50 ZAm2), calculated for the period from 1600 to 1000 Ma. This average represents only a snapshot of the Earth’s magnetic field strength. While the new data are too limited in time to contribute directly to the question of ICN, they nevertheless contribute to constraints useful for assessing numerical simulations of the Mesoproterozoic geodynamo.

前寒武纪的古强度数据是了解地球内核成核(ICN)时间的关键。由于数据稀少,内核成核的时间仍然难以确定,一般认为发生在 2500 至 500 Ma 之间。数值动力模拟模型预测熵增加,对流的驱动力增强,可能会影响场强,并显示 ICN 的古强度记录异常。我们提出了对中中生代(1406 ± 1424 Ma)Nova Guarita堤群(位于马托格罗索州北部(巴西亚马逊克拉通西南部))地磁场强度(古强度)的新估计。为了获得古强度估计值,我们采用了非加热普雷萨赫方法,并在标本和遗址层面制定了古强度标准。五个地点提供了可接受的古强度结果,得出的虚拟偶极矩(VDM)估算值分别为:1416±13 Ma 时 65 ± 12 ZAm2,1418±3 Ma 时 53 ± 4 ZAm2,1418±5 Ma 时 12 ± 2 和 8 ± 2 ZAm2,1424±16 Ma 时 71 ± 16 ZAm2,因此,∼1410 Ma 时的平均估算值为 43 ± 30 ZAm2。这个估计值与VDM数据的平均值(∼50 ZAm2)相似,是为1600至1000 Ma期间计算的。这个平均值只是地球磁场强度的一个缩影。虽然新数据在时间上过于有限,无法直接解决ICN问题,但它们有助于评估中新生代地球动力的数值模拟。
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Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica
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