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Advancing Solar Energetic Particle Event Prediction through Survival Analysis and Cloud Computing. I. Kaplan–Meier Estimation and Cox Proportional Hazards Modeling 通过生存分析和云计算推进太阳高能粒子事件预测。I. Kaplan-Meier 估计和 Cox 比例危害模型
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/ad3fba
India Jackson, Petrus Martens
Solar energetic particles (SEPs) pose significant challenges to technology, astronaut health, and space missions. This initial paper in our two-part series undertakes a comprehensive analysis of the time to detection for SEPs, applying advanced statistical techniques and cloud-computing resources to deepen our understanding of SEP event probabilities over time. We employ a range of models encompassing nonparametric, semiparametric, and parametric approaches, such as the Kaplan–Meier estimator and Cox Proportional Hazards models. These are complemented by various distribution models—including exponential, Weibull, lognormal, and log-logistic distributions—to effectively tackle the challenges associated with “censored data,” a common issue in survival analysis. Employing Amazon Web Services and Python’s “lifelines” and “scikit-survival” libraries, we efficiently preprocess and analyze large data sets. This methodical approach not only enhances our current analysis, but also sets a robust statistical foundation for the development of predictive models, which will be the focus of the subsequent paper. In identifying the key determinants that affect the timing of SEP detection, we establish the vital features that will inform the machine-learning (ML) techniques explored in the second paper. There, we will utilize advanced ML models—such as survival trees and random survival forests—to evolve SEP event prediction capabilities. This research is committed to advancing space weather, strengthening the safety of space-borne technology, and safeguarding astronaut health.
太阳高能粒子(SEP)对技术、宇航员健康和太空任务构成了重大挑战。本文是我们两部分系列论文中的第一篇,对太阳高能粒子的探测时间进行了全面分析,应用先进的统计技术和云计算资源加深了我们对太阳高能粒子事件随时间变化的概率的理解。我们采用了一系列模型,包括非参数、半参数和参数方法,如 Kaplan-Meier 估计器和 Cox 比例危害模型。这些模型由各种分布模型(包括指数分布、Weibull 分布、对数正态分布和对数-对数分布)进行补充,以有效解决与 "删减数据 "相关的挑战,这是生存分析中的一个常见问题。利用亚马逊网络服务和 Python 的 "lifelines "和 "scikit-survival "库,我们可以高效地预处理和分析大型数据集。这种有条不紊的方法不仅增强了我们当前的分析能力,还为预测模型的开发奠定了坚实的统计基础,这将是后续论文的重点。在确定影响 SEP 检测时间的关键决定因素时,我们建立了重要的特征,这些特征将为第二篇论文中探讨的机器学习(ML)技术提供信息。在第二篇论文中,我们将利用先进的 ML 模型(如生存树和随机生存森林)来发展 SEP 事件预测能力。这项研究致力于推动空间天气的发展,加强空间技术的安全性,保障宇航员的健康。
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引用次数: 0
Erratum: “Photometric Selection of Unobscured QSOs at the Ecliptic Poles: KMTNet in the South Field and Pan-STARRS in the North Field” (2023, ApJS, 268, 57) 勘误:"黄道两极无遮挡 QSO 的光度选择:南磁场的 KMTNet 和北磁场的 Pan-STARRS"(2023 年,ApJS, 268, 57):南场的KMTNet和北场的Pan-STARRS"(2023年,ApJS,268,57)
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/ad487c
Woowon Byun, Minjin Kim, Y. Sheen, Dongseob Lee, L. C. Ho, Jongwan Ko, K. Seon, H. Shim, Dohyeong Kim, Yongjung Kim, J. Lee, Hyunjin Jeong, Jong-Hak Woo, Woong-Seob Jeong, Byeong-Gon Park, Sang Chul Kim, Yongseok Lee, S. Cha, Hyunmi Song, D. Son, Yujin Yang
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引用次数: 0
A Sample of Am and Ap Candidates from LAMOST DR10 (v1.0) Based on the Ensemble Regression Model 基于集合回归模型的 LAMOST DR10(v1.0)Am 和 Ap 候选样本
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/ad4107
Hai-Feng 海峰 Yang 杨, Rui 瑞 Wang 王, Jiang-Hui 江辉 Cai 蔡, A-Li 阿理 Luo 罗, Bing 冰 Du 杜, Yan-Ting 艳婷 He 贺, Mei-Hong 美红 Su 苏, Chen-Hui 晨辉 Shi 史, Xu-Jun 旭俊 Zhao 赵, Ya-Ling 亚玲 Xun 荀, Yi-Nan 艺楠 Yuan 员
Large samples of Am and Ap stars are helpful in studying the interplay between phenomena like atomic diffusion, magnetic fields, and stellar rotation in stellar astrophysics. Existing samples of Am and Ap stars, mostly obtained from spectral data with a signal-to-noise ratio in the g band (S/Ng) greater than 50, can benefit from expansion by exploring spectra with lower S/Ng. Therefore, this paper proposes an ensemble regression model applicable to spectra with a minimum S/Ng of 30. Using the model, we identify 21,361 Am candidates, of which 11,614 are new, and 6182 Ap candidates, of which 4978 are new, from LAMOST DR10. The Am sample size has increased by 60% and the Ap sample size has increased by 180% compared to the previous sample. In terms of effective temperature (T eff), the Am candidates range mainly from 6000 to 8500 K, while the Ap candidates range from 6000 to 11,700 K. The surface gravity ( logg ) distributions for Am and Ap candidates differ in the range of 3.25–4.75 dex. The number of Am candidates increases stepwise, in contrast to the relatively uniform distribution of Ap candidates across the entire surface gravity range. Regarding metallicity ([Fe/H]), Am candidates typically range from −0.75 to 0.38 dex, peaking near 0 dex, while Ap candidates are distributed from −1.38 to 0.38 dex, with a peak near −0.5 dex.
大量的Am和Ap恒星样本有助于研究恒星天体物理学中原子扩散、磁场和恒星旋转等现象之间的相互作用。现有的 Am 星和 Ap 星样本大多是从 g 波段信噪比(S/Ng)大于 50 的光谱数据中获得的。因此,本文提出了一个适用于最小信噪比为 30 的光谱的集合回归模型。利用该模型,我们从 LAMOST DR10 中识别出 21,361 个 Am 候选天体,其中 11,614 个是新天体;6182 个 Ap 候选天体,其中 4978 个是新天体。与之前的样本相比,Am 样本增加了 60%,Ap 样本增加了 180%。在有效温度(T eff)方面,Am候选星的范围主要在6000-8500 K之间,而Ap候选星的范围则在6000-11700 K之间。Am和Ap候选星的表面引力(logg)分布差异在3.25-4.75 dex之间。Am候选星的数量呈阶梯状增加,而Ap候选星则在整个表面引力范围内分布相对均匀。在金属性([Fe/H])方面,Am 候选星的典型分布范围为-0.75-0.38 dex,在 0 dex 附近达到峰值;而 Ap 候选星的分布范围为-1.38-0.38 dex,在-0.5 dex 附近达到峰值。
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引用次数: 0
Theoretical Study of Electron Capture, Excitation, and Ionization Processes in H+−H(2l) Collisions H+-H(2l) 碰撞中电子俘获、激发和电离过程的理论研究
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/ad3633
Y. Wang, K. Wang, L. Liu, Y. Wu, F. Wang, J. G. Wang
The processes of single-electron charge exchange, excitation, and ionization during proton impact on H(2l) are investigated. We employ two different theoretical methods that are suitable for different collision energy regions: the full quantum-mechanical molecular orbital close-coupling method for energies from 0.001 to 1 keV u−1 and the two-center atomic orbital close-coupling (TC-AOCC) method for energies between 0.3 and 100 keV u−1. For charge exchange and excitation processes, the total and nl-resolved cross sections to the final reaction channels of H (nl, n = 1–4) have been obtained over a broad energy region. Moreover, the ionization cross sections in the TC-AOCC calculation are also reported for both H(2s) and H(2p) initial target states. The present results are all compared with those from other sources when available. It is found that the magnitude and energy behavior of nl-resolved excitation cross sections for H+–H(2p) collisions are significantly distinct from those of the H(2s) initial state in the entire energy range considered, particularly in the low-energy region. The energy behaviors of the nl-resolved charge exchange cross sections from the H(2p) initial state are similar to those from the H(2s) initial state, but their magnitudes are larger. The present accurate cross-section data are anticipated to provide insight into the research of astrophysics and controlled fusion plasmas.
研究了质子撞击 H(2l)时的单电子电荷交换、激发和电离过程。我们采用了适用于不同碰撞能量区域的两种不同理论方法:针对 0.001 至 1 keV u-1 能量的全量子力学分子轨道紧密耦合方法和针对 0.3 至 100 keV u-1 能量的双中心原子轨道紧密耦合(TC-AOCC)方法。对于电荷交换和激发过程,在一个宽广的能量区域内获得了 H(nl,n = 1-4)最终反应通道的总截面和 nl 分辨截面。此外,还报告了在 TC-AOCC 计算中 H(2s) 和 H(2p) 初始靶态的电离截面。这些结果都与其他来源(如有)的结果进行了比较。研究发现,在所考虑的整个能量范围内,特别是在低能区,H+-H(2p) 碰撞的 nl 分辨激发截面的大小和能量行为与 H(2s) 初始态的截面明显不同。来自 H(2p) 初始状态的 nl 分辨电荷交换截面的能量行为与来自 H(2s) 初始状态的电荷交换截面相似,但它们的量级更大。这些精确的截面数据有望为天体物理学和可控核聚变等离子体的研究提供启示。
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引用次数: 0
Multiobject Spectroscopy of Galaxy Clusters at z ∼ 0.95 in the Ultra Deep Survey Field with Different Star Formation Properties and Large-scale Environments 对超深巡天观测场中 z ∼ 0.95 星级、具有不同恒星形成特性和大尺度环境的星系团进行多目标光谱分析
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/ad45f8
Seong-Kook Lee, Myungshin Im, Bomi Park, M. Hyun, I. Paek, Dohyeong Kim
While galaxy clusters are dominated by quiescent galaxies in the local Universe, they show a wide range in quiescent galaxy fraction (QF) at higher redshifts. Here we present the discovery of two galaxy clusters at z ∼ 0.95 with contrasting QFs despite having similar masses (log (M 200/M ⊙) ∼ 14) and spectra and redshifts of 29 galaxies in these clusters and 76 galaxies in the surrounding area. The clusters are found in the Ultra Deep Survey field and confirmed through multiobject spectroscopic observation using the Inamori Magellan Areal Camera and Spectrograph on the Magellan telescope. The two clusters exhibit QFs of 0.094−0.032+0.11 and 0.38−0.11+0.14 , respectively. Analysis of large-scale structures (LSSs) surrounding these clusters finds that properties of these clusters are consistent with the anticorrelation trend between the QF and the extent of surrounding LSS, found in Lee et al., which can be interpreted as a result of the replenishment of young, star-forming galaxies keeping the QF low when galaxy clusters are accompanied by rich surrounding environments.
在本宇宙中,星系团主要由静止星系组成,但在较高的红移下,它们的静止星系比例(QF)却有很大的差异。在这里,我们发现了两个z ∼ 0.95的星系团,尽管它们的质量(log (M 200/M ⊙) ∼ 14)、光谱和红移都很相似,但它们的静止星系比例却截然不同,这两个星系团中有29个星系,周围区域有76个星系。这些星系团是在超深空巡天领域中发现的,并通过使用麦哲伦望远镜上的稻盛麦哲伦区域照相机和摄谱仪进行多目标光谱观测而得到确认。这两个星团的 QF 分别为 0.094-0.032+0.11 和 0.38-0.11+0.14 。对这些星团周围大尺度结构(LSS)的分析发现,这些星团的性质与Lee等人发现的QF与周围LSS范围之间的反相关趋势一致,这可以解释为当星系团周围环境丰富时,年轻恒星形成星系的补充使QF保持在较低水平。
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引用次数: 0
Numerical Modeling of Energetic Charged-particle Transport with SPECTRUM Software: General Approach and Artificial Effects due to Field Discretization 用 SPECTRUM 软件建立高能带电粒子输运的数值模型:一般方法和场离散化引起的人为效应
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/ad4637
J. A. Guzman, V. Florinski, G. Tóth, S. Sharma, B. van der Holst, M. Opher
Test-particle simulations are an important tool for magnetospheric and heliophysics research. In this paper, we present the Space Plasma and Energetic Charged particle TRansport on Unstructured Meshes (SPECTRUM) software as a novel tool for performing these types of simulations in arbitrary astrophysical environments, specified either analytically or numerically (i.e., on a grid). We discuss and benchmark SPECTRUM’s interface with meshed magnetohydrodynamic backgrounds, including output from the Block Adaptive Tree Solar-wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) code. We also investigate the effects of field discretization on both deterministic and stochastic particle motion, with emphasis on space science applications, concluding that the discretization error typically enhances the diffusive behavior of the ensemble.
测试粒子模拟是磁层和太阳物理学研究的重要工具。在本文中,我们介绍了空间等离子体和非结构化网格上的高能带电粒子传输(SPECTRUM)软件,它是在任意天体物理环境中执行这类模拟的一种新工具,可以通过分析或数值(即在网格上)进行指定。我们讨论了 SPECTRUM 与网格磁流体动力学背景的接口,包括块自适应树太阳风 Roe 型上风方案(BATS-R-US)代码的输出,并对其进行了基准测试。我们还研究了场离散化对确定性和随机粒子运动的影响,重点是空间科学应用,结论是离散化误差通常会增强集合的扩散行为。
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引用次数: 0
Erratum: “Zero and Extremely Low-metallicity Rotating Massive Stars: Evolution, Explosion, and Nucleosynthesis Up to the Heaviest Nuclei” (2024, ApJS, 270, 28) 勘误:"零金属性和极低金属性旋转大质量恒星:进化、爆炸和核合成,直至最重的核" (2024, ApJS, 270, 28)
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/ad4f7d
L. Roberti, M. Limongi, A. Chieffi
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引用次数: 0
A Catalog of Early-type Runaway Stars from LAMOST DR8 来自 LAMOST DR8 的早期型失控恒星表
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/ad46f8
Yanjun Guo, Luqian 璐茜 Wang 王, C. Liu 刘, Y. Wu 吴, Z. Han 韩, X. Chen 陈
Runaway stars are OB-type stars ejected from their birthplace with large peculiar velocities. The leading hypothesis addressed in their formation includes the supernova ejection mechanism and the dynamic ejection scenario. Identification of runaway populations is the first step to investigating their formation and evolution. Here we present our work of searching for Galactic runaway candidate stars from the Large sky Area Multi-Object fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) Medium Resolution Survey Data Release 8 (DR8) database. After studying the kinematic properties for a collection of 4432 early-type stars, predominantly B-type stars, using radial velocity measurements from LAMOST DR8 and astrometric solutions made by Gaia Data Release 3, we identified 229 runaway candidate stars. They span a wide distribution in projected rotational velocities. We investigated the Galactic spatial distribution of the runaway population and noticed that most of them likely reside within the Galactic thin disk. Based upon analyzing the Doppler shifts of the candidate stars, we found two binary runaway candidates displaying velocity variations with estimated orbital periods of 40 and 61 days.
失控恒星是从其诞生地以巨大的奇特速度喷射出来的 OB 型恒星。关于它们形成的主要假说包括超新星抛射机制和动态抛射设想。识别失控群是研究它们的形成和演化的第一步。在此,我们介绍了从大天区多目标光纤光谱望远镜(LAMOST)中分辨率巡天数据第8版(DR8)数据库中搜索银河失控候选星的工作。在利用 LAMOST DR8 的径向速度测量数据和 Gaia Data Release 3 的天体测量解法研究了 4432 颗早期型恒星(主要是 B 型恒星)的运动特性之后,我们确定了 229 颗失控候选恒星。它们的投影旋转速度分布很广。我们对失控恒星群的银河空间分布进行了研究,发现它们中的大多数可能都位于银河系薄盘内。根据对候选恒星多普勒频移的分析,我们发现有两颗双失控候选恒星显示出速度变化,估计轨道周期分别为 40 天和 61 天。
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引用次数: 0
Sample and Statistical Analysis on NEOWISE Variability of ATLASGAL Sources 关于ATLASGAL源的NEOWISE变异性的样本和统计分析
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/ad41e2
Ying Lu, Xi Chen, Shijie Song, Jun-Ting Liu, Tian Yang, You-Xin Wang, Yan-Kun Zhang, Shi-Jie Zhang
This study focuses on the analysis of mid-infrared variability in a sample of high-mass young stellar objects (YSOs) associated with the cataloged sources from the APEX Telescope Large Area Survey of the Galaxy (ATLASGAL). The Near-Earth Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer Reactivation Mission (NEOWISE) database was used to explore the long-term mid-infrared variability of these high-mass YSOs at a half-year scale. After matching with NEOWISE photometric measurements, a total of 2230 ATLASGAL sources were selected for the variability analysis, out of which 717 were identified as variables. The derived proportions of variables at different evolutionary stages show that the variability rate of high-mass YSOs is highest during the YSO stage and decreases with evolution toward the H ii region stage, resembling the behavior of low-mass YSOs. The variables can be classified into six types based on their light curves, divided into two categories: secular (linear, sin, sin+linear) and stochastic variables (burst, drop, and irregular). The magnitude–color variations observed in ∼160 secular variables can be mainly divided into “bluer when brighter/redder when dimming” and “redder when brighter/bluer when dimming,” likely originating from changes in accretion rate or the effect of extinction due to obscuration. Moreover, several episodic accretion candidates were selected for further observational studies.
这项研究的重点是分析与APEX望远镜银河系大面积巡天(ATLASGAL)编录源相关的高质年轻恒星天体(YSO)样本的中红外变率。近地天体宽视场红外巡天探测器再激活任务(NEOWISE)数据库被用来探索这些高质年轻恒星天体在半年尺度上的长期中红外变率。在与NEOWISE光度测量结果进行比对之后,共选择了2230个ATLASGAL源进行变率分析,其中717个被确定为变量。不同演化阶段的变量比例显示,高质YSO的变率在YSO阶段最高,随着向H ii区域阶段的演化而降低,这与低质YSO的行为相似。根据光变曲线,这些变星可分为六种类型,其中又分为两类:世俗变星(线性变星、正弦变星、正弦+线性变星)和随机变星(爆发变星、下降变星和不规则变星)。在 160 个世俗变星中观测到的星等-颜色变化主要分为 "变亮时更蓝/变暗时更红 "和 "变亮时更红/变暗时更蓝 "两种,这可能是由于吸积率的变化或遮挡造成的消光效应引起的。此外,还选择了几个偶发性增生候选天体进行进一步观测研究。
{"title":"Sample and Statistical Analysis on NEOWISE Variability of ATLASGAL Sources","authors":"Ying Lu, Xi Chen, Shijie Song, Jun-Ting Liu, Tian Yang, You-Xin Wang, Yan-Kun Zhang, Shi-Jie Zhang","doi":"10.3847/1538-4365/ad41e2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4365/ad41e2","url":null,"abstract":"This study focuses on the analysis of mid-infrared variability in a sample of high-mass young stellar objects (YSOs) associated with the cataloged sources from the APEX Telescope Large Area Survey of the Galaxy (ATLASGAL). The Near-Earth Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer Reactivation Mission (NEOWISE) database was used to explore the long-term mid-infrared variability of these high-mass YSOs at a half-year scale. After matching with NEOWISE photometric measurements, a total of 2230 ATLASGAL sources were selected for the variability analysis, out of which 717 were identified as variables. The derived proportions of variables at different evolutionary stages show that the variability rate of high-mass YSOs is highest during the YSO stage and decreases with evolution toward the H ii region stage, resembling the behavior of low-mass YSOs. The variables can be classified into six types based on their light curves, divided into two categories: secular (linear, sin, sin+linear) and stochastic variables (burst, drop, and irregular). The magnitude–color variations observed in ∼160 secular variables can be mainly divided into “bluer when brighter/redder when dimming” and “redder when brighter/bluer when dimming,” likely originating from changes in accretion rate or the effect of extinction due to obscuration. Moreover, several episodic accretion candidates were selected for further observational studies.","PeriodicalId":22368,"journal":{"name":"The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series","volume":"9 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141411714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Erratum: “Stellar Loci. VII. Photometric Metallicities of 5 Million FGK Stars Based on GALEX GR6+7 AIS and Gaia EDR3” (2024, ApJS, 271, 26) 勘误:"Stellar Loci.VII.基于 GALEX GR6+7 AIS 和 Gaia EDR3 的 500 万 FGK 恒星的光度金属性"(2024 年,ApJS,271,26)
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/ad488b
Xue Lu, Haibo Yuan, Shuai Xu, Ruoyi Zhang, K. Xiao, Yang Huang, T. Beers, Jihye Hong
,
,
{"title":"Erratum: “Stellar Loci. VII. Photometric Metallicities of 5 Million FGK Stars Based on GALEX GR6+7 AIS and Gaia EDR3” (2024, ApJS, 271, 26)","authors":"Xue Lu, Haibo Yuan, Shuai Xu, Ruoyi Zhang, K. Xiao, Yang Huang, T. Beers, Jihye Hong","doi":"10.3847/1538-4365/ad488b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4365/ad488b","url":null,"abstract":",","PeriodicalId":22368,"journal":{"name":"The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series","volume":"15 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141402464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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