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2013 Winter Simulations Conference (WSC)最新文献

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Using simulation to evaluate call forecasting algorithms for inbound call center 利用仿真方法对呼入呼叫中心的呼叫预测算法进行了评价
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721502
Guilherme Steinmann, Paulo José de Freitas Filho
The call center industry has expanded greatly over recent years and it is constantly striving to increase business efficiency and customer service effectiveness. Incoming call volume forecasting algorithms are used in inbound call centers to predict the demand for services and, as a result, to plan resource allocation. However, a number of phenomena can have an impact on incoming call volumes, meaning that classical forecasting algorithms will produce less than satisfactory results. When evaluating the performance of a forecasting algorithm, acquiring the data needed for research is not always straightforward. This article shows how simulation can be of use to generate data that can be used to evaluate incoming call forecasting algorithms.
呼叫中心行业近年来发展迅速,并不断努力提高业务效率和客户服务效率。呼入呼叫量预测算法用于呼入呼叫中心预测服务需求,从而规划资源分配。然而,许多现象会对呼入量产生影响,这意味着经典的预测算法将产生不太令人满意的结果。在评估预测算法的性能时,获取研究所需的数据并不总是直截了当的。本文展示了如何使用模拟来生成可用于评估呼入预测算法的数据。
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引用次数: 7
Simulation of mixed discrete and continuous systems: An iron ore terminal example 离散和连续混合系统的仿真:一个铁矿石终端的例子
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721505
Vincent Béchard, Normand Cote
Modeling industrial systems involving discrete and continuous processes is a challenge for practitioners. A simulation approach to handle these situations is based on flow rate discretization (instead of mass discretization): the discrete simulation unfolds as a series of steady-state flows calculation updated when a state variable changes or a random event occurs. Underlying mass balancing problem can be solved with the linear programming simplex algorithm. This paper presents a novel technique based on maximizing flow through a network where nodes are black-box model units. This network-based method is less sensitive to problem size; the computation effort required to solve the mass balance is proportional to O(m+n) instead of O(mn) with linear programming. The approach was implemented in FlexsimTM software and used to simulate an iron ore port terminal. Processes included in the model were: mine-to-port trains handling, port terminal equipment (processing rate, capacity, operating logic, failures) and ship loading.
对涉及离散和连续过程的工业系统建模对从业者来说是一个挑战。处理这些情况的一种模拟方法是基于流量离散化(而不是质量离散化):离散模拟展开为一系列稳态流量计算,当状态变量变化或随机事件发生时更新。底层质量平衡问题可以用线性规划单纯形算法求解。本文提出了一种基于网络流量最大化的新技术,其中节点是黑盒模型单元。这种基于网络的方法对问题的大小不太敏感;求解质量平衡所需的计算量与O(m+n)成正比,而不是与线性规划的O(mn)成正比。该方法在FlexsimTM软件中实现,并用于铁矿石港口码头的仿真。模型中包含的过程包括:矿港列车装卸、港口终端设备(处理率、容量、操作逻辑、故障)和船舶装载。
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引用次数: 11
Low-storage online estimators for quantiles and densities 分位数和密度的低存储在线估计器
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721470
Soumyadip Ghosh, R. Pasupathy
The traditional estimator ξp, n for the p-quantile ξp of a random variable X, given n observations from the distribution of X, is obtained by inverting the empirical cumulative distribution function (cdf) constructed from the obtained observations. The estimator ξp, n requires O(n) storage, and it is well known that the mean squared error of ξp, n (with respect to p) decays as O(n-1). In this article, we present an alternative to ξp, n that seems to require dramatically less storage with negligible loss in convergence rate. The proposed estimator, ξp, n, relies on an alternative cdf that is constructed by accumulating the observed random variâtes into variable-sized bins that progressively become finer around the quantile. The size of the bins are strategically adjusted to ensure that the increased bias due to binning does not adversely affect the resulting convergence rate. We present an "online" version of the estimator ξp, n, along with a discussion of results on its consistency, convergence rates, and storage requirements. We also discuss analogous ideas for density estimation. We limit ourselves to heuristic arguments in support of the theoretical assertions we make, reserving more detailed proofs to a forthcoming paper.
给定X分布的n个观测值,随机变量X的p-分位数ξp的传统估计量ξp n通过对观测值构造的经验累积分布函数(cdf)进行反求得到。估计器ξp, n需要O(n)的存储空间,众所周知,ξp, n(相对于p)的均方误差衰减为O(n-1)。在本文中,我们提出了一种替代方案,它似乎需要更少的存储空间,而收敛速度的损失可以忽略不计。所提出的估计器ξp, n依赖于另一种cdf,该cdf是通过将观察到的随机变量 (random varites)累积到可变大小的箱子中来构建的,这些箱子在分位数周围逐渐变得更细。箱子的大小被战略性地调整,以确保由于分箱而增加的偏差不会对最终的收敛速度产生不利影响。我们给出了估计器ξp, n的“在线”版本,并讨论了其一致性、收敛率和存储要求的结果。我们还讨论了密度估计的类似思想。我们将自己限制在启发式论证中,以支持我们所做的理论断言,将更详细的证明保留到即将发表的论文中。
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引用次数: 1
A subset selection procedure under input parameter uncertainty 输入参数不确定性下的子集选择过程
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721442
C. G. Corlu, B. Biller
This paper considers a stochastic system simulation with unknown input distribution parameters and assumes the availability of a limited amount of historical data for parameter estimation. We investigate how to account for parameter uncertainty - the uncertainty that is due to the estimation of the input distribution parameters from historical data of finite length - in a subset selection procedure that identifies the stochastic system designs whose sample means are within a user-specified distance of the best mean performance measure. We show that even when the number of simulation replications is large enough for the stochastic uncertainty to be negligible, the amount of parameter uncertainty in output data imposes a threshold on the user-specified distance for an effective use of the subset selection procedure for simulation. We demonstrate the significance of this effect of parameter uncertainty for a multi-item inventory system simulation in the presence of short demand histories.
本文考虑一个输入分布参数未知的随机系统仿真,并假设可用的历史数据数量有限,用于参数估计。我们研究了如何在一个子集选择过程中考虑参数不确定性-由于从有限长度的历史数据中估计输入分布参数而产生的不确定性-该子集选择过程识别随机系统设计,其样本均值在最佳平均性能度量的用户指定距离内。我们表明,即使模拟复制的数量足够大,随机不确定性可以忽略不计,输出数据中参数不确定性的数量也会对用户指定的距离施加阈值,以便有效地使用子集选择过程进行模拟。我们证明了参数不确定性对存在短需求历史的多项目库存系统模拟的影响的重要性。
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引用次数: 38
Conditional simulation for efficient global optimization 条件模拟有效的全局优化
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721487
J. Kleijnen, E. Mehdad
A classic Kriging or Gaussian process (GP) metamodel estimates the variance of its predictor by plugging-in the estimated GP (hyper)parameters; namely, the mean, variance, and covariances. The problem is that this predictor variance is biased. To solve this problem for deterministic simulations, we propose “conditional simulation” (CS), which gives predictions at an old point that in all bootstrap samples equal the observed value. CS accounts for the randomness of the estimated GP parameters. We use the CS predictor variance in the “expected improvement” criterion of “efficient global optimization” (EGO). To quantify the resulting small-sample performance, we experiment with multi-modal test functions. Our main conclusion is that EGO with classic Kriging seems quite robust; EGO with CS only tends to perform better in expensive simulation with small samples.
经典的克里格或高斯过程(GP)元模型通过插入估计的GP(超)参数来估计其预测器的方差;即均值、方差和协方差。问题是这个预测变量是有偏差的。为了解决确定性模拟中的这个问题,我们提出了“条件模拟”(CS),它在所有自举样本中都等于观测值的旧点给出预测。CS解释了估计GP参数的随机性。我们在“高效全局优化”(EGO)的“期望改进”准则中使用CS预测方差。为了量化结果的小样本性能,我们使用多模态测试函数进行实验。我们的主要结论是,经典克里格的EGO似乎相当稳健;带有CS的EGO只倾向于在小样本的昂贵模拟中表现更好。
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引用次数: 9
A magic number versus trickle down agent-based model of tax policy 一个神奇的数字与基于代理人的税收政策模型
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721526
Shih-Hsien Tseng, T. Allen
The purpose of this article is to explore the interaction of two opposing forces. The forces of wealth accumulation in sturring job creation and the force of satisfaction and the “magic number” in causing job destruction are explored." An agent based model is proposed to explore the potentially competing effects of two hypothesized economic forces. The first is “trickle down” economics in which job creation occurs when wealth accumulates. The second is the “magic number” effect in which retirement occurs when wealth accumulates. Also, considered is the so-called “substitution effect” in which less is produced when the tax burden is considered to be too high. The “magic number” agent-based model proposed here is then explored using design of experiments. Three types of experiments were performed to explore (but not validate) the effects of assumed conditions on system gross domestic product (GDP) and tax revenue predicted after 50 years of operations.
本文的目的是探讨两种对立力量的相互作用。探讨了财富积累在创造就业机会中的作用,以及满意度和“魔数”在破坏就业机会中的作用。提出了一个基于智能体的模型来探讨两种假设经济力量的潜在竞争效应。第一种是“涓滴效应”经济学,在这种经济学中,当财富积累时,就会创造就业机会。第二个是“神奇数字”效应,即当财富积累时,退休就会发生。此外,还考虑了所谓的“替代效应”,即当税负被认为过高时,生产的产品就会减少。然后利用实验设计对本文提出的“幻数”智能体模型进行了探索。进行了三种类型的实验,以探索(但不验证)假设条件对系统国内生产总值(GDP)和50年后预测的税收收入的影响。
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引用次数: 2
An entropy based sequential calibration approach for stochastic computer models 基于熵的随机计算机模型序贯校准方法
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721453
Yuan Jun, S. Ng
Computer models are widely used to simulate complex and costly real processes and systems. In the calibration process of the computer model, the calibration parameters are adjusted to fit the model closely to the real observed data. As these calibration parameters are unknown and are estimated based on observed data, it is important to estimate it accurately and account for the estimation uncertainty in the subsequent use of the model. In this paper, we study in detail an empirical Bayes approach for stochastic computer model calibration that accounts for various uncertainties including the calibration parameter uncertainty, and propose an entropy based criterion to improve on the estimation of the calibration parameter. This criterion is also compared with the EIMSPE criterion.
计算机模型被广泛用于模拟复杂和昂贵的实际过程和系统。在计算机模型的标定过程中,对标定参数进行调整,使模型更接近实际观测数据。由于这些校准参数是未知的,并且是根据观测数据估计的,因此在随后的模型使用中准确估计并考虑估计的不确定性是很重要的。本文详细研究了随机计算机模型校正的经验贝叶斯方法,该方法考虑了包括校正参数不确定性在内的各种不确定性,并提出了一种基于熵的准则来改进校正参数的估计。该准则还与EIMSPE准则进行了比较。
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引用次数: 7
Disease modeling within refugee camps: A multi-agent systems approach 难民营内的疾病建模:多主体系统方法
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721551
A. Crooks, A. Hailegiorgis
The displacement of people in times of crisis represents a challenge for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief and stakeholder agencies. Major challenges include providing adequate security and medical facilities to displaced people. Within this paper, we develop a spatially explicit multi-agent system model that explores the spread of cholera in the Dadaab refugee camps, Kenya. A common characteristic of these camps is poor sanitation and housing conditions which contribute to frequent outbreaks of cholera. We model the spread of cholera by explicitly representing the interaction between humans (host) and their environment, and the spread of the epidemic. The results from the model show that the spread of cholera grows radially from contaminated water sources and can have an impact on service provision. Agents' social behavior and movements contribute to the spread of cholera to other camps where water sources were relatively safe.
在危机时期,人们流离失所是人道主义援助和救灾以及利益攸关方机构面临的挑战。主要挑战包括为流离失所者提供足够的安全和医疗设施。在本文中,我们开发了一个空间明确的多智能体系统模型,探索霍乱在肯尼亚达达阿布难民营的传播。这些营地的一个共同特点是卫生条件和住房条件差,导致霍乱频繁爆发。我们通过明确表示人类(宿主)与其环境之间的相互作用以及流行病的传播来模拟霍乱的传播。该模型的结果表明,霍乱的传播从受污染的水源呈放射状增长,并可能对服务提供产生影响。霍乱人员的社会行为和活动导致霍乱传播到其他水源相对安全的难民营。
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引用次数: 12
Analyzing noncombatant evacuation operations using discrete event simulation 用离散事件模拟分析非战斗人员撤离行动
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721646
Dallas Kuchel
Large scale evacuations can be extremely complex, requiring tremendous coordination and logistical support. Noncombatant Evacuation Operations (NEOs) present additional challenges of civil unrest and violence that congests the transportation network and can require military assistance to execute the evacuation. NEOs contain many moving parts and simultaneous processes including thousands of evacuees, vehicles, aircraft, and personnel tracking technology. Discrete event simulation is a technique well suited to handle the complex interactions between the entities and to analyze the behavior of the system. This paper describes the methodology used to analyze NEO by the Center for Army Analysis (CAA) and presents a case study that illustrates how modeling can be used to evaluate various courses of action and support decision making. When preparing to execute a NEO, decision makers use simulation modeling and analysis to evaluate evacuation timelines, allocate resources and lift assets, select safe haven locations, and determine support requirements for evacuees.
大规模疏散可能极其复杂,需要大量的协调和后勤支持。非战斗人员撤离行动(neo)带来了内乱和暴力的额外挑战,使交通网络拥挤,可能需要军事援助来执行撤离。neo包含许多活动部件和同时进行的过程,包括数千名撤离人员、车辆、飞机和人员跟踪技术。离散事件仿真是一种非常适合处理实体之间复杂的相互作用和分析系统行为的技术。本文描述了陆军分析中心(CAA)用于分析NEO的方法,并提出了一个案例研究,说明如何使用建模来评估各种行动方案和支持决策。在准备执行NEO时,决策者使用仿真建模和分析来评估疏散时间表,分配资源和提升资产,选择安全避难所位置,并确定疏散人员的支持要求。
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引用次数: 4
Application of a generic simulation model to optimize production and workforce planning at an automotive supplier 通用仿真模型在汽车供应商生产和劳动力计划优化中的应用
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721640
K. Altendorfer, Thomas Felberbauer, D. Gruber, Alexander Hübl
This paper presents a comprehensive simulation project in the area of an automotive supplier. The company produces car styling serial and original accessory parts made from plastic for internal and external applications in passenger cars. For the foaming division, which is identified as the bottleneck, different personnel and qualification scenarios, set-up optimizations and lot-sizing strategies are compared with the current situation. Key performance measures reported are inventory, tardiness and service level. The changes in organizational costs (e.g. employee training, additional employees, etc.), due to the scenarios, are not considered and are traded off with the logistical potential by the company itself. Results of the simulation study indicate that a combination of an additional fitter during night shift, minor reductions of set-up times and reduced lot-sizes leads to an inventory reduction of ~10.6% and a service level improvement of ~8% compared to the current situation.
本文提出了一个汽车供应商领域的综合仿真方案。该公司生产汽车造型系列和原厂配件由塑料制成的内部和外部应用的乘用车。针对被认定为瓶颈的发泡分厂,对比了不同的人员和资质方案、设置优化和批量策略的现状。报告的主要绩效指标是库存、延迟和服务水平。组织成本的变化(例如员工培训,额外的员工等),由于这些情况,没有被考虑,而是由公司自己与后勤潜力进行权衡。模拟研究的结果表明,与目前的情况相比,夜班期间增加一个过滤器,稍微减少设置时间和减少批量的组合导致库存减少约10.6%,服务水平提高约8%。
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引用次数: 13
期刊
2013 Winter Simulations Conference (WSC)
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