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2013 Winter Simulations Conference (WSC)最新文献

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Effective simulation of earth moving projects 有效模拟土方工程
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721693
Jamal Siadat, J. Ruwanpura
In the context of earth-moving (EM) projects, process-based simulation platforms have demonstrated their effectiveness in predicting project durations, costs, and resource requirements. However, these simulators are developed by simulation expert using advanced programming techniques. Therefore, understanding the details of these models or enhancing them to fit a particular purpose can be a daunting task. This paper presents Earth-Sim, an EM template developed using the SimFC simulation platform. Earth-Sim mimics the behaviors found in an earlier version of the SIMPHONY EMS template. SIMPHONY EMS was chosen because a) it is a well-recognized template which models all activities within the EM process; and b) it has been validated against data obtained from construction job-sites. This paper explains how Earth-Sim was developed solely using the common elements found in SimFC without any programming. Furthermore, the results obtained from Earth-Sim are compared against results from SIMPHONY EMS to illustrate the validity of the outputs.
在土方工程(EM)的背景下,基于过程的仿真平台已经证明了它们在预测工程工期、成本和资源需求方面的有效性。然而,这些模拟器是由仿真专家使用先进的编程技术开发的。因此,理解这些模型的细节或增强它们以适应特定目的可能是一项艰巨的任务。本文介绍了利用SimFC仿真平台开发的EM模板Earth-Sim。Earth-Sim模拟SIMPHONY EMS模板早期版本中的行为。选择SIMPHONY EMS是因为a)它是一个公认的模板,可以模拟EMS流程中的所有活动;b)根据从建筑工地获得的数据进行了验证。本文解释了Earth-Sim是如何在没有任何编程的情况下仅使用SimFC中的常见元素开发的。此外,将Earth-Sim的结果与SIMPHONY EMS的结果进行了比较,以说明输出的有效性。
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引用次数: 4
Methodology to evaluate the impact of AMHS design characteristics on operational fab performance 评估AMHS设计特性对晶圆厂运行性能影响的方法
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.5555/2675983.2675870
G. Gaxiola, David Wizelman
Today's 300mm semiconductor facilities rely almost completely on Automated Material Handling Systems (AMHS) to transport wafers to equipment and storage areas in the wafer fabrication plant (fab). As the cost of equipment increases and the process technology becomes more and more sensitive to delivery times between steps, AMHS performance has become increasingly important to overall factory performance. Current AMHS design methods focus primarily on optimizing the balance between AMHS cost and AMHS performance. Understanding the influence of AMHS performance on fab operations has become an area of focus during the design process. This paper proposes a methodology to correlate AMHS performance measurements with simulated fab performance measures using a linked AMHS-fab model. This methodology facilitates model setup, scenario modification, model linkage, and calculations of performance impact. A sample evaluation study demonstrates the validation and analysis process, and derives conclusions applicable during the AMHS design process.
今天的300mm半导体工厂几乎完全依赖于自动化材料处理系统(AMHS)将晶圆运送到晶圆制造厂(fab)的设备和存储区域。随着设备成本的增加和工艺技术对步骤之间的交货时间越来越敏感,AMHS性能对工厂的整体性能变得越来越重要。目前的AMHS设计方法主要侧重于优化AMHS成本和性能之间的平衡。了解AMHS性能对晶圆厂运行的影响已成为设计过程中的一个重点领域。本文提出了一种方法,将AMHS性能测量与模拟晶圆厂性能测量相关联,使用链接的AMHS-晶圆厂模型。这种方法有助于模型设置、场景修改、模型连接和性能影响的计算。样品评价研究演示了验证和分析过程,并得出了适用于AMHS设计过程的结论。
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引用次数: 6
Simulation analysis of supply chain systems with reverse logistics 具有逆向物流的供应链系统仿真分析
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721701
S. Umeda
Due to environmental and ecological responsibility, enterprises are trying to reuse, remanufacture and recycle used products to reduce the negative impact on the environment. Reverse logistics is one of essential elements to implement such sustainable supply chain system. This paper proposes methodologies of simulation modeling and analysis of supply chain systems with reverse logistics flows. This paper discusses two types of reverse supply chain: PUSH-type reverse logistics and PULL-type reverse logistics. Generic models are introduced and analysis examples of individual features will be provided.
出于对环境和生态的责任,企业正在尝试对使用过的产品进行再利用、再制造和回收,以减少对环境的负面影响。逆向物流是实现这一可持续供应链系统的基本要素之一。本文提出了具有逆向物流的供应链系统的仿真建模和分析方法。本文讨论了两种类型的逆向供应链:推式逆向物流和拉式逆向物流。介绍了通用模型,并提供了单个特征的分析示例。
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引用次数: 6
The GAP-DRG model: Simulation of outpatient care for comparison of different reimbursement schemes GAP-DRG模型:模拟门诊治疗,比较不同的报销方案
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721605
P. Einzinger, N. Popper, F. Breitenecker, N. Pfeffer, Reinhard Jung, G. Endel
In health care the reimbursement of medical providers is an important topic and can influence the overall outcome. We present the agent-based GAP-DRG model, which allows a comparison of reimbursement schemes in outpatient care. It models patients and medical providers as agents. In the simulation patients develop medical problems (i.e., diseases) and a need for medical services. This leads to utilization of medical providers. The reimbursement system receives information on the patients' visits via its generic interface, which facilitates an easy replacement. We describe the assumptions of the model in detail and show how it makes extensive use of available Austrian routine care data for its parameterization. The model design is optimized for utilizing as much of these data as possible. However, many assumptions have to be simplifications. Further work and detailed comparisons with health care data will provide insight on which assumptions are valid descriptions of the real process.
在医疗保健中,医疗服务提供者的报销是一个重要的话题,可以影响总体结果。我们提出了基于代理的GAP-DRG模型,该模型允许门诊医疗报销方案的比较。它将患者和医疗服务提供者作为代理人进行建模。在模拟中,患者出现医疗问题(即疾病)并需要医疗服务。这导致利用医疗服务提供者。报销系统通过通用接口接收患者就诊信息,方便更换。我们详细描述了模型的假设,并展示了它如何广泛使用奥地利常规护理数据进行参数化。模型设计是为了尽可能多地利用这些数据而优化的。然而,许多假设必须加以简化。进一步的工作和与卫生保健数据的详细比较将有助于了解哪些假设是对真实过程的有效描述。
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引用次数: 9
Exploratory and participatory simulation 探索性和参与性模拟
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721519
Gerd Wagner
We discuss two forms of user-interactive simulation: in exploratory simulation users may explore a system by means of interventions, and in participatory simulation they may participate in a multi-agent simulation scenario by controlling (or `playing') one of the agents. Exploratory simulation can be used by researchers for validating a simulation model and it can be used by students and trainees for learning the dynamics of a system by interacting with a simulation model of it. Participatory simulation allows dealing with simulation problems where one (or more) of the involved human roles cannot be modeled sufficiently faithfully and therefore have to be played by human actors that participate in simulation runs. We elaborate the concepts of exploratory and participatory simulation on a general, implementation-independent level. We also show how they can be implemented with the AOR Simulation (AORS 2012) platform based on the human-computer interaction paradigm of agent control.
我们讨论了两种形式的用户交互模拟:在探索性模拟中,用户可以通过干预的方式探索系统,而在参与性模拟中,他们可以通过控制(或“玩”)其中一个代理来参与多代理模拟场景。探索性仿真可用于研究人员验证仿真模型,也可用于学生和受训人员通过与系统仿真模型交互来学习系统动力学。参与式模拟允许处理一个(或多个)所涉及的人类角色不能充分忠实地建模的模拟问题,因此必须由参与模拟运行的人类参与者扮演。我们在一般的、独立于实现的层面上阐述了探索性和参与性模拟的概念。我们还展示了如何使用基于智能体控制的人机交互范式的AOR仿真(AORS 2012)平台实现它们。
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引用次数: 6
Low-storage online estimators for quantiles and densities 分位数和密度的低存储在线估计器
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721470
Soumyadip Ghosh, R. Pasupathy
The traditional estimator ξp, n for the p-quantile ξp of a random variable X, given n observations from the distribution of X, is obtained by inverting the empirical cumulative distribution function (cdf) constructed from the obtained observations. The estimator ξp, n requires O(n) storage, and it is well known that the mean squared error of ξp, n (with respect to p) decays as O(n-1). In this article, we present an alternative to ξp, n that seems to require dramatically less storage with negligible loss in convergence rate. The proposed estimator, ξp, n, relies on an alternative cdf that is constructed by accumulating the observed random variâtes into variable-sized bins that progressively become finer around the quantile. The size of the bins are strategically adjusted to ensure that the increased bias due to binning does not adversely affect the resulting convergence rate. We present an "online" version of the estimator ξp, n, along with a discussion of results on its consistency, convergence rates, and storage requirements. We also discuss analogous ideas for density estimation. We limit ourselves to heuristic arguments in support of the theoretical assertions we make, reserving more detailed proofs to a forthcoming paper.
给定X分布的n个观测值,随机变量X的p-分位数ξp的传统估计量ξp n通过对观测值构造的经验累积分布函数(cdf)进行反求得到。估计器ξp, n需要O(n)的存储空间,众所周知,ξp, n(相对于p)的均方误差衰减为O(n-1)。在本文中,我们提出了一种替代方案,它似乎需要更少的存储空间,而收敛速度的损失可以忽略不计。所提出的估计器ξp, n依赖于另一种cdf,该cdf是通过将观察到的随机变量 (random varites)累积到可变大小的箱子中来构建的,这些箱子在分位数周围逐渐变得更细。箱子的大小被战略性地调整,以确保由于分箱而增加的偏差不会对最终的收敛速度产生不利影响。我们给出了估计器ξp, n的“在线”版本,并讨论了其一致性、收敛率和存储要求的结果。我们还讨论了密度估计的类似思想。我们将自己限制在启发式论证中,以支持我们所做的理论断言,将更详细的证明保留到即将发表的论文中。
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引用次数: 1
Simulation of mixed discrete and continuous systems: An iron ore terminal example 离散和连续混合系统的仿真:一个铁矿石终端的例子
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721505
Vincent Béchard, Normand Cote
Modeling industrial systems involving discrete and continuous processes is a challenge for practitioners. A simulation approach to handle these situations is based on flow rate discretization (instead of mass discretization): the discrete simulation unfolds as a series of steady-state flows calculation updated when a state variable changes or a random event occurs. Underlying mass balancing problem can be solved with the linear programming simplex algorithm. This paper presents a novel technique based on maximizing flow through a network where nodes are black-box model units. This network-based method is less sensitive to problem size; the computation effort required to solve the mass balance is proportional to O(m+n) instead of O(mn) with linear programming. The approach was implemented in FlexsimTM software and used to simulate an iron ore port terminal. Processes included in the model were: mine-to-port trains handling, port terminal equipment (processing rate, capacity, operating logic, failures) and ship loading.
对涉及离散和连续过程的工业系统建模对从业者来说是一个挑战。处理这些情况的一种模拟方法是基于流量离散化(而不是质量离散化):离散模拟展开为一系列稳态流量计算,当状态变量变化或随机事件发生时更新。底层质量平衡问题可以用线性规划单纯形算法求解。本文提出了一种基于网络流量最大化的新技术,其中节点是黑盒模型单元。这种基于网络的方法对问题的大小不太敏感;求解质量平衡所需的计算量与O(m+n)成正比,而不是与线性规划的O(mn)成正比。该方法在FlexsimTM软件中实现,并用于铁矿石港口码头的仿真。模型中包含的过程包括:矿港列车装卸、港口终端设备(处理率、容量、操作逻辑、故障)和船舶装载。
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引用次数: 11
Prospective healthcare decision-making by combined system dynamics, discrete-event and agent-based simulation 结合系统动力学、离散事件和基于代理的模拟的前瞻性医疗保健决策
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721426
Anatoli Djanatliev, R. German
Prospective Health Technology Assessment allows early decision making for innovative health care technologies. The main idea is to combine available domain knowledge with advanced simulation techniques in order to predict the effects of medical products and to find bottlenecks and weaknesses within the health system. In our recent publications a hybrid simulation approach with System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling has been presented. Hospital workflows have been modeled by state charts within agent behavioral models and have to be instantiated each time an agent is entering a hospital. This paper presents a mechanism to generate agents dynamically from SD models and extends the previously presented hybrid approach by process-oriented Discrete Event Simulation for hospital modeling. It connects processes to health care institutions and not to persons traversing them. Two extended example case studies show potentials for medical decision making using the three simulation paradigms in a common environment.
前瞻性卫生技术评估允许对创新卫生保健技术作出早期决策。其主要思想是将现有的领域知识与先进的模拟技术相结合,以预测医疗产品的影响,并发现卫生系统中的瓶颈和弱点。在我们最近的出版物中,提出了一种系统动力学和基于agent的建模的混合仿真方法。医院工作流是通过代理行为模型中的状态图建模的,每次代理进入医院时都必须实例化。本文提出了一种从SD模型动态生成智能体的机制,并通过面向过程的离散事件仿真扩展了先前提出的混合方法,用于医院建模。它将进程与卫生保健机构联系起来,而不是与穿越这些机构的人联系起来。两个扩展的示例案例研究显示了在公共环境中使用这三种模拟范式进行医疗决策的潜力。
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引用次数: 66
An entropy based sequential calibration approach for stochastic computer models 基于熵的随机计算机模型序贯校准方法
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721453
Yuan Jun, S. Ng
Computer models are widely used to simulate complex and costly real processes and systems. In the calibration process of the computer model, the calibration parameters are adjusted to fit the model closely to the real observed data. As these calibration parameters are unknown and are estimated based on observed data, it is important to estimate it accurately and account for the estimation uncertainty in the subsequent use of the model. In this paper, we study in detail an empirical Bayes approach for stochastic computer model calibration that accounts for various uncertainties including the calibration parameter uncertainty, and propose an entropy based criterion to improve on the estimation of the calibration parameter. This criterion is also compared with the EIMSPE criterion.
计算机模型被广泛用于模拟复杂和昂贵的实际过程和系统。在计算机模型的标定过程中,对标定参数进行调整,使模型更接近实际观测数据。由于这些校准参数是未知的,并且是根据观测数据估计的,因此在随后的模型使用中准确估计并考虑估计的不确定性是很重要的。本文详细研究了随机计算机模型校正的经验贝叶斯方法,该方法考虑了包括校正参数不确定性在内的各种不确定性,并提出了一种基于熵的准则来改进校正参数的估计。该准则还与EIMSPE准则进行了比较。
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引用次数: 7
Using simulation to evaluate call forecasting algorithms for inbound call center 利用仿真方法对呼入呼叫中心的呼叫预测算法进行了评价
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721502
Guilherme Steinmann, Paulo José de Freitas Filho
The call center industry has expanded greatly over recent years and it is constantly striving to increase business efficiency and customer service effectiveness. Incoming call volume forecasting algorithms are used in inbound call centers to predict the demand for services and, as a result, to plan resource allocation. However, a number of phenomena can have an impact on incoming call volumes, meaning that classical forecasting algorithms will produce less than satisfactory results. When evaluating the performance of a forecasting algorithm, acquiring the data needed for research is not always straightforward. This article shows how simulation can be of use to generate data that can be used to evaluate incoming call forecasting algorithms.
呼叫中心行业近年来发展迅速,并不断努力提高业务效率和客户服务效率。呼入呼叫量预测算法用于呼入呼叫中心预测服务需求,从而规划资源分配。然而,许多现象会对呼入量产生影响,这意味着经典的预测算法将产生不太令人满意的结果。在评估预测算法的性能时,获取研究所需的数据并不总是直截了当的。本文展示了如何使用模拟来生成可用于评估呼入预测算法的数据。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
2013 Winter Simulations Conference (WSC)
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