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Combined DES/SD simulaton model of breast cancer screening for older women: An overview 老年妇女乳腺癌筛查的DES/SD联合模拟模型综述
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721406
J. Tejada, K. Diehl, J. Ivy, James R. Wilson, R. King, Matthew J. Ballan, M. Kay, B. Yankaskas
We develop a simulation modeling framework for evaluating the effectiveness of breast cancer screening policies for US women of age 65+. We introduce a two-phase simulation approach to modeling the main components in the breast cancer screening process. The first phase is a natural-history model of the incidence and progression of untreated breast cancer in randomly sampled individuals from the designated population. Combining discrete event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD) submodels, the second phase is a screening-and-treatment model that uses information about the genesis of breast cancer in the sampled individuals as generated by the natural-history model to estimate the benefits of different policies for screening the designated population and treating the affected women. Based on extensive simulation-based comparisons of alternative screening policies, we concluded that annual screening from age 65 to age 80 is the best policy for minimizing breast cancer deaths or for maximizing quality-adjusted life-years saved.
我们开发了一个模拟建模框架来评估美国65岁以上女性乳腺癌筛查政策的有效性。我们介绍了一种两阶段的模拟方法来模拟乳腺癌筛查过程中的主要组成部分。第一阶段是从指定人群中随机抽取个体,建立未经治疗的乳腺癌发病率和进展的自然历史模型。结合离散事件模拟(DES)和系统动力学(SD)子模型,第二阶段是一个筛查和治疗模型,该模型使用自然历史模型生成的样本个体中乳腺癌发生的信息来估计筛查指定人群和治疗受影响妇女的不同政策的好处。基于广泛的基于模拟的替代筛查政策的比较,我们得出结论,从65岁到80岁的年度筛查是最大限度地减少乳腺癌死亡率或最大限度地提高质量调整生命年的最佳政策。
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引用次数: 4
A balanced sequential design strategy for global surrogate modeling 全局代理建模的平衡顺序设计策略
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721594
Prashant Singh, D. Deschrijver, T. Dhaene
The sequential design methodology for global surrogate modeling of complex systems consists of iteratively training the model on a growing set of samples. Sample selection is a critical step in the process and influences the final quality of the model. It is desirable to use as few samples as possible while building an accurate model using insight gained in previous iterations. A robust sampling scheme is considered that employs Monte Carlo Voronoi tessellations for exploration, linear gradients for exploitation and different schemes are investigated to balance their trade-off. The experimental results on benchmark examples indicate that some schemes can result in a substantially smaller model error especially when the system under consideration has a highly non-linear behavior.
复杂系统全局代理建模的顺序设计方法包括在不断增长的样本集上迭代地训练模型。样本选择是过程中的关键步骤,影响模型的最终质量。在使用在以前的迭代中获得的洞察力构建准确的模型时,使用尽可能少的样本是可取的。考虑了一种鲁棒抽样方案,该方案采用蒙特卡罗Voronoi细分进行勘探,线性梯度进行开采,并研究了不同方案以平衡它们的权衡。在基准算例上的实验结果表明,当考虑的系统具有高度非线性行为时,某些方案可以产生更小的模型误差。
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引用次数: 23
Weapon tradeoff analysis using dynamic programming for a dynamic weapon target assignment problem within a simulation 基于动态规划的武器目标分配问题仿真权衡分析
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721653
D. Ahner, Carl Parson
We consider the sequential allocation of differing weapons to a collection of adversarial targets with the goal of surviving to destroy a critical target within a combat simulation. The platform which carries the weapons proceeds through a set of sequential stages and at each stage potentially engages targets with available weapons. The decision space at each stage is affected by previous decisions and the probability of platform destruction. Simulation and dynamic programming are then used within a larger dynamic programming framework to determine allocation strategies and develop value functions for these mission sets to be used in future, larger and more complex simulations. A simple dynamic programming example of the problem is considered and used to generate a functional approximation for a more complex system. The developed methodology provides a tractable approach to addressing complex sequential allocation of resources within a risky environment.
在战斗模拟中,我们考虑将不同武器顺序分配给一组敌对目标,目标是生存并摧毁一个关键目标。携带武器的平台通过一系列连续的阶段进行,在每个阶段都可能与可用武器的目标交战。每个阶段的决策空间都受到先前决策和平台被破坏概率的影响。然后在更大的动态规划框架内使用仿真和动态规划来确定分配策略,并为这些任务集开发价值函数,以便在未来更大更复杂的仿真中使用。考虑了该问题的一个简单的动态规划示例,并用于为更复杂的系统生成函数逼近。所开发的方法提供了一种易于处理的方法来处理风险环境中复杂的顺序资源分配。
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引用次数: 5
Investigating the effect of demand aggregation on the performance of an (R, Q) inventory control policy 研究需求聚合对(R, Q)库存控制策略绩效的影响
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721696
M. Rossetti, Mohammad A. Shbool, Vijith Varghese, E. Pohl
This paper investigates the effect of demand aggregation on the performance measures of an inventory system controlled by a (r, Q) policy. Demand usage data is available at different time scales, i.e., daily, weekly, monthly etc., and forecasting is based on these time scales. Using forecasts, appropriate lead time demand models are constructed and used in optimization procedures. The question being investigated is what effect the forecasting time bucket has on whether or not the inventory control model meets planned performance. A simulation model is used to compare performance under different demand aggregation levels. The simulation model of the optimized (r, Q) inventory system is run for the planning horizon and the supply chain operational performance measures like ready rate, expected back order etc., are collected. Subsequently, the effect of aggregating the demand and planning accordingly is analyzed based on the simulated supply chain's operational performance.
本文研究了需求聚合对(r, Q)策略控制下库存系统绩效指标的影响。需求使用数据可以在不同的时间尺度上获得,例如,每天、每周、每月等,并且预测是基于这些时间尺度的。利用预测,构建适当的交货期需求模型,并在优化过程中使用。研究的问题是预测时间范围对库存控制模型是否满足计划性能有什么影响。采用仿真模型对不同需求聚合水平下的性能进行比较。对优化后的(r, Q)库存系统在计划视界上进行仿真模型的运行,并收集了完成率、预期缺货等供应链运行绩效指标。随后,基于模拟供应链的运行绩效,分析了需求聚合和相应规划的效果。
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引用次数: 3
A case study examining the impact of factor screening for Neural Network metamodels 一个研究因素筛选对神经网络元模型影响的案例研究
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721444
S. Rosen, S. Guharay
Metamodeling of large-scale simulations consisting of a large number of input parameters can be very challenging. Neural Networks have shown great promise in fitting these large-scale simulations even without performing factor screening. However, factor screening is an effective method for logically reducing the dimensionality of an input space and thus enabling more feasible metamodel calibration. Applying factor screening methods before calibrating Neural Network metamodels or any metamodel can have both positive and negative effects. The critical assumption for factor screening under investigation involves the prevalence of two-way interactions that contain a variable without a significant main effect by itself. In a simulation with a large parameter space, the prevalence of two-way interactions and their contribution to the total variability in the model output is far from transparent. Important questions therefore arise regarding factor screening and Neural Network metamodels: (a) is this a process worth doing with today's more powerful computing processors, which provide a larger library of runs to do metamodeling; and (b), does erroneously screening these buried interaction terms critically impact the level of metamodel fidelity that one can achieve. In this paper we examine these questions through the construction of a case study on a large-scale simulation. This study projects regional homelessness levels per county of interest based on a large array of budget decisions and resource allocations that expand out to hundreds of input parameters.
由大量输入参数组成的大规模模拟的元建模非常具有挑战性。即使没有进行因素筛选,神经网络在拟合这些大规模模拟方面也显示出很大的希望。然而,因子筛选是一种有效的方法,可以从逻辑上降低输入空间的维度,从而使元模型校准更加可行。在校准神经网络元模型或任何元模型之前应用因素筛选方法可能既有积极的影响,也有消极的影响。正在调查的因素筛选的关键假设涉及双向相互作用的普遍性,其中包含一个变量本身没有显著的主效应。在具有大参数空间的模拟中,双向相互作用的普遍性及其对模型输出中总变异性的贡献远非透明。因此,关于因子筛选和神经网络元模型的重要问题出现了:(a)这个过程是否值得用今天更强大的计算处理器来做,它提供了更大的运行库来做元建模;(b)错误地筛选这些隐藏的交互项是否会严重影响人们可以达到的元模型保真度水平。在本文中,我们通过构建一个大规模模拟的案例研究来检验这些问题。这项研究根据大量的预算决定和资源分配,扩展到数百个输入参数,预测了每个感兴趣的县的区域无家可归者水平。
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引用次数: 5
Robust selection of the best 强大的选择最好的
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721478
Weiwei Fan, L. Hong, Xiaowei Zhang
Classical ranking-and-selection (R&S) procedures cannot be applied directly to select the best decision in the presence of distributional ambiguity. In this paper we propose a robust selection-of-the-best (RSB) formulation which compares decisions based on their worst-case performances over a finite set of possible distributions and selects the decision with the best worst-case performance. To solve the RSB problems, we design two-layer R&S procedures, either two-stage or fully sequential, under the indifference-zone formulation. The procedure identifies the worst-case distribution in the first stage and the best decision in the second. We prove the statistical validity of these procedures and test their performances numerically.
传统的排序与选择方法不能直接应用于分布模糊情况下的最佳决策选择。在本文中,我们提出了一个鲁棒的最佳选择(RSB)公式,该公式根据决策在有限可能分布上的最坏情况性能来比较决策,并选择具有最佳最坏情况性能的决策。为了解决RSB问题,我们在无差异区公式下设计了两阶段或全顺序的两层R&S程序。该过程在第一阶段确定最坏情况分布,在第二阶段确定最佳决策。我们证明了这些方法的统计有效性,并对其性能进行了数值测试。
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引用次数: 30
Model-driven systems engineering for netcentric system of systems with DEVS unified process 基于DEVS统一流程的网络中心系统模型驱动系统工程
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721503
S. Mittal, J. L. Risco-Martín
Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) employs model-based technologies and established systems engineering practices. Model-Driven Engineering (MDE) provides various concepts to automate model based practices using metamodeling. We describe the DEVS Unified Process (DUNIP) that aims to bring together MBSE and MDE as Model-driven Systems Engineering (MDSE) and apply it in a netcentric environment. We historically look at various model-based and model-driven flavors and suggest MDSE/DUNIP as one of the derived methodologies. We describe essential elements in DUNIP that facilitate integration with architecture solutions like Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), Event Driven Architectures (EDA), Systems Entity Structures (SES) ontology, and frameworks like Department of Defense Architecture Framework (DoDAF 2.0). We discuss systems requirement specifications, verification and validation, metamodeling, Domain Specific Languages (DSLs), and model transformation technologies as applicable in DUNIP. In this article, we discuss the features and contributions of DUNIP in netcentric system of systems engineering.
基于模型的系统工程(MBSE)采用基于模型的技术和已建立的系统工程实践。模型驱动工程(MDE)提供了各种概念来使用元建模自动化基于模型的实践。我们描述了DEVS统一过程(DUNIP),旨在将MBSE和MDE作为模型驱动系统工程(MDSE)结合在一起,并将其应用于网络中心环境。我们历史地考察了各种基于模型和模型驱动的风格,并建议MDSE/DUNIP作为派生方法之一。我们描述了DUNIP中的基本元素,这些元素促进了与体系结构解决方案的集成,如面向服务的体系结构(SOA)、事件驱动的体系结构(EDA)、系统实体结构(SES)本体和像国防部体系结构框架(DoDAF 2.0)这样的框架。我们讨论了系统需求规范、验证和确认、元建模、领域特定语言(dsl)以及适用于DUNIP的模型转换技术。在本文中,我们讨论了DUNIP在系统工程的网络中心系统中的特点和贡献。
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引用次数: 45
Physical objects on navigation channal simulation models 物理对象上的导航信道仿真模型
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.5555/2675983.2675827
Daniel de Oliveira Mota, N. N. Pereira, R. Botter, A. C. Medina
This paper presents the results of a simulation using physical objects. This concept integrates the physical dimensions of an entity such as length, width, and weight, with the usual process flow paradigm, recurrent in the discrete event simulation models. Based on a naval logistics system, we applied this technique in an access channel of the largest port of Latin America. This system is composed by vessel movement constrained by the access channel dimensions. Vessel length and width dictates whether it is safe or not to have one or two ships simultaneously. The success delivered by the methodology proposed was an accurate validation of the model, approximately 0.45% of deviation, when compared to real data. Additionally, the model supported the design of new terminals operations for Santos, delivering KPIs such as: canal utilization, queue time, berth utilization, and throughput capability.
本文给出了用实物进行仿真的结果。该概念将实体的物理维度(如长度、宽度和重量)与通常的流程流范式(在离散事件仿真模型中反复出现)集成在一起。基于海军后勤系统,我们在拉丁美洲最大港口的通道上应用了这种技术。该系统由受通道尺寸约束的船舶运动组成。船舶的长度和宽度决定了同时有一艘或两艘船舶是否安全。与实际数据相比,所提出的方法成功地对模型进行了准确验证,偏差约为0.45%。此外,该模型还支持Santos的新码头运营设计,提供kpi,如:运河利用率、排队时间、泊位利用率和吞吐量能力。
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引用次数: 3
Building metamodels for quantile-based measures using sectioning 使用分段为基于分位数的度量构建元模型
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721447
X. Chen, K. Kim
Simulation metamodeling has been used as an effective tool in predicting the mean performance of complex systems, reducing the computational burden of costly and time-consuming simulation runs. One of the successful metamodeling techniques developed is the recently proposed stochastic kriging. However, standard stochastic kriging is confined to the case where the sample averages and sample variances of the simulation outputs at design points are the main building blocks for creating a metamodel. In this paper, we show that if each simulation output is further comprised of i.i.d. observations, then it is possible to extend the original framework into a more general one. Such a generalization enables us to utilize estimation methods including sectioning for obtaining point and interval estimates in constructing stochastic kriging metamodels for performance measures such as quantiles and tail conditional expectations. We demonstrate the superior performance of stochastic kriging metamodels under the generalized framework through some examples.
仿真元建模已被用作预测复杂系统平均性能的有效工具,减少了昂贵且耗时的仿真运行的计算负担。最近提出的随机克里格是一种成功的元建模技术。然而,标准的随机克里格仅限于在设计点模拟输出的样本平均值和样本方差是创建元模型的主要构建块的情况。在本文中,我们表明,如果每个模拟输出进一步由i.i.d观察组成,那么就有可能将原始框架扩展为更一般的框架。这种泛化使我们能够利用包括分段在内的估计方法来获得点和区间估计,从而为分位数和尾部条件期望等性能度量构建随机克里格元模型。通过实例证明了广义框架下随机克里格元模型的优越性能。
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引用次数: 20
An agent-based simulation framework to analyze the prevalence of child obesity 基于主体的儿童肥胖流行分析模拟框架
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721608
A. Ramirez-Nafarrate, J. Gutierrez-Garcia
Child obesity is a public health problem that is of concern of several countries around the world. Long-term effects of child obesity include prevalence of chronic diseases, such as diabetes and heart-related illnesses. This paper presents an agent-based simulation framework to analyze the evolution of obesity in school-age children. In particular, in this paper we evaluate the impact of physical activity on the prevalence of child obesity using an agent-based simulation model. Simulation results suggest that the fraction of overweight and obese children at the end of elementary school can be reduced by doing physical activity with moderate intensity.
儿童肥胖是一个公共卫生问题,受到世界上许多国家的关注。儿童肥胖的长期影响包括慢性病的流行,如糖尿病和心脏相关疾病。本文提出了一个基于智能体的模拟框架来分析学龄期儿童肥胖的演变。特别是,在本文中,我们使用基于主体的模拟模型来评估体育活动对儿童肥胖患病率的影响。模拟结果表明,通过中等强度的体育锻炼可以减少小学末超重和肥胖儿童的比例。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
2013 Winter Simulations Conference (WSC)
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