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2013 Winter Simulations Conference (WSC)最新文献

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Lean distribution assessment using an integrated framework of value stream mapping and simulation 使用价值流映射和模拟的集成框架进行精益分布评估
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.21427/D7W20Z
A. Mahfouz, A. Arisha
Distribution centers play a critical role in maintaining supply chains efficiency, flexibility, and reliability. Given the limited financial and physical resources of today's businesses, distribution enterprises have be-gun to embrace the far-reaching value of lean paradigm. Value Stream Mapping (VSM) is prescribed as a part of lean implementation portfolio of tools. It is employed to visually map value streams' material and information flows seeking to identify the sources of waste and non-value added activities. Integrating simulation with VSM introduces a whole new dimension for lean implementation and assessment processes given its ability to dynamically model systems complexity and uncertainty. This paper shows a value stream mapping-based simulation framework that is used to assess two basic lean distribution practices, pull replenishment and class-based storage policy, of a tire distribution company.
配送中心在维持供应链的效率、灵活性和可靠性方面起着至关重要的作用。鉴于当今企业有限的财务和物质资源,分销企业已经开始接受精益模式的深远价值。价值流映射(价值流映射)是精益实施工具组合的一部分。它被用来可视化地映射价值流的物质和信息流,以寻求确定浪费和非增值活动的来源。将仿真与VSM集成为精益实施和评估过程引入了一个全新的维度,因为它具有动态建模系统复杂性和不确定性的能力。本文展示了一个基于价值流映射的仿真框架,用于评估轮胎分销公司的两种基本精益分销实践,即拉补和基于类别的存储策略。
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引用次数: 18
Forecasting effects of MISO actions: An ABM methodology MISO行动的预测效果:一种ABM方法
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721647
Christopher W. Weimer, J.O. Miller, Mark Friend, Janet Miller
Agent-based models (ABM) have been used successfully in the field of generative social science to discover parsimonious sets of factors that generate social behavior. This methodology provides an avenue to explore the spread of anti-government sentiment in populations and to compare the effects of potential Military Information Support Operations (MISO) actions. We develop an ABM to investigate factors that affect the growth of rebel uprisings in a notional population. Our ABM expands the civil violence model developed by Epstein by enabling communication between agents through a genetic algorithm and by adding the ability of agents to form friendships based on shared beliefs. We examine the distribution of opinion and size of sub-populations of rebel and imprisoned civilians, and compare two counter-propaganda strategies. Analysis identifies several factors with effects that can explain some real-world observations, and provides a methodology for MISO operators to compare the effectiveness of potential actions.
基于主体的模型(ABM)已经成功地应用于生成社会科学领域,以发现产生社会行为的简约因素集。这种方法为探索反政府情绪在人群中的传播和比较潜在的军事信息支持行动(MISO)行动的影响提供了一条途径。我们开发了一个ABM来调查在一个假设人口中影响叛乱起义增长的因素。我们的ABM扩展了Epstein开发的公民暴力模型,通过遗传算法实现代理之间的通信,并通过添加代理基于共同信念形成友谊的能力。我们检查了意见的分布和叛乱分子和被监禁的平民亚人口的规模,并比较了两种反宣传策略。分析确定了几个影响因素,这些因素可以解释一些现实世界的观察结果,并为MISO运营商提供了一种方法来比较潜在措施的有效性。
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引用次数: 1
Agile logistics simulation and optimization for managing disaster responses 管理灾害响应的敏捷物流模拟和优化
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721698
F. Barahona, M. Ettl, Marek Petrik, Peter M. Rimshnick
Catastrophic events such as hurricanes, earthquakes or floods require emergency responders to rapidly distribute emergency relief supplies to protect the health and lives of victims. In this paper we develop a simulation and optimization framework for managing the logistics of distributing relief supplies in a multi-tier supply network. The simulation model captures optimized stocking of relief supplies, distribution operations at federal or state-operated staging facilities, demand uncertainty, and the dynamic progression of disaster response operations. We apply robust optimization techniques to develop optimized stocking policies and dispatch of relief supplies between staging facilities and points of distribution. The simulation framework accommodates a wide range of disaster scenarios and stressors, and helps assess the efficacy of response plans and policies for better disaster response.
飓风、地震或洪水等灾难性事件要求应急人员迅速分发紧急救济物资,以保护受害者的健康和生命。在本文中,我们开发了一个模拟和优化框架,用于管理在多层供应网络中分配救济物资的物流。仿真模型捕获了救灾物资的优化库存、联邦或州政府运营的分期设施的分配操作、需求的不确定性以及灾难响应操作的动态进展。我们应用稳健的优化技术来制定优化的库存政策,并在分期设施和分发点之间调度救援物资。模拟框架可容纳各种灾难情景和压力源,并有助于评估响应计划和政策的有效性,以更好地应对灾难。
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引用次数: 15
R-SPLINE for local integer-ordered simulation optimization problems with stochastic constraints 随机约束下局部整数阶模拟优化问题的r-样条
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721476
K. Nagaraj, R. Pasupathy
R-SPLINE is a recently proposed competitor to the popular COMPASS algorithm for solving local integer-ordered simulation optimization problems that have either an unconstrained or a deterministically-constrained feasible region. R-SPLINE is a refined sample-average approximation algorithm with a structure that is particularly conducive to the inclusion of stochastic constraints. In this paper we consider one such trivial adaptation of R-SPLINE. Our aim is narrow in that we wish only to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the resulting iterates. Accordingly, we demonstrate sufficient conditions under which the proposed adaptation's iterates match the consistency and convergence rate qualities of the iterates from the originally proposed R-SPLINE. Ongoing numerical experiments show much promise but raise important questions about the choice of algorithm parameters when the adaptation is executed on problems where one or more of the constraints are binding.
R-SPLINE是最近提出的一种与流行的COMPASS算法竞争的算法,用于解决具有无约束或确定性约束可行域的局部整数阶模拟优化问题。R-SPLINE是一种精细的样本平均近似算法,其结构特别有利于包含随机约束。在本文中,我们考虑了r -样条的一种平凡的自适应。我们的目的很狭隘,因为我们只希望研究结果迭代的渐近行为。因此,我们证明了在充分条件下,所提出的自适应迭代与原提出的r -样条迭代的一致性和收敛率质量相匹配。正在进行的数值实验显示了很大的希望,但在对一个或多个约束约束的问题执行自适应时,提出了关于算法参数选择的重要问题。
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引用次数: 3
Modeling and simulation of patient admission services in a multi-specialty outpatient clinic 多专科门诊病人入院服务的建模与仿真
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721606
Bruno Mocarzel, David Shelton, Berkcan Uyan, Eduardo Pérez, J. Jimenez, Lenore DePagter
Tactical planning of resources in healthcare clinics concerns elective patient admission planning and the intermediate term allocation of resource capacities. Its main objectives are to achieve equitable access for patients, to serve the strategically agreed number of patients, and to use resources efficiently. In this paper, we describe a simulation model for an outpatient healthcare clinic facing multiple issues related to patient admission and resource workflow. The main problems identified at the clinic are: 1) phones are not answered promptly and 2) patients experience long wait time to check in and check out. The simulation model focuses on the front desk operations. We investigate different resource allocation policies and report on computational results based on a real clinic, historical data, and both patient and management performance measures.
医疗保健诊所资源的战术规划涉及选择性病人入院计划和资源能力的中期分配。其主要目标是实现患者的公平获取,为战略商定数量的患者提供服务,并有效利用资源。在本文中,我们描述了一个门诊医疗保健诊所的仿真模型,该诊所面临与患者入院和资源工作流相关的多个问题。在诊所发现的主要问题是:1)电话不能及时接听;2)病人要等待很长时间才能入住和出院。仿真模型的重点是前台的操作。我们研究了不同的资源分配策略,并根据真实的诊所、历史数据以及患者和管理人员的绩效指标报告了计算结果。
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引用次数: 18
Estimating future demand for hospital emergency services at the regional level 估计未来在区域一级对医院急救服务的需求
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721613
B. Mielczarek
The level of demand for hospital emergency services is closely connected to the demographic characteristics of a region's population. The objective of this study is to examine the influence of changes in population size and structure on the volume of emergency service needs exhibited by patients arriving at hospital emergency departments in the area. The Monte Carlo simulation model examines demographic trends at the regional level, formulates forecasts for population changes, and extrapolates the simulated patterns of the demand for acute services. The model includes data on the population in 9 districts that surround Wrocław, the capital of Lower Silesia (Poland) and data on acute visits to emergency departments located in the region. Our analysis suggests that two age groups, i.e., children aged 0-4 and elderly people aged 60 and over, are responsible for a large share of the changes in the demand level.
对医院急诊服务的需求水平与一个地区人口的人口特征密切相关。本研究的目的是研究人口规模和结构的变化对该地区到达医院急诊科的患者所表现出的急诊服务需求的影响。蒙特卡罗模拟模型检查区域一级的人口趋势,拟订人口变化的预测,并推断紧急服务需求的模拟模式。该模型包括围绕下西里西亚(波兰)首府Wrocław的9个地区的人口数据,以及该地区急诊科的急症就诊数据。我们的分析表明,两个年龄组,即0-4岁的儿童和60岁及以上的老年人,对需求水平的变化负有很大的责任。
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引用次数: 9
Temporal perspectives in construction simulation modeling 建筑仿真建模中的时间视角
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721691
G. Lucko, Amlan Mukherjee
Temporal perspectives play a vital role in shaping narratives. Such perspectives include models of time that support the practice of construction management. Although formal representations of time are rarely noticed, they strongly influence the variables and relationships that can be encoded in process models. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the distinct ways in which the time can be formalized and how they impact the understanding of project performance and productivity. It explores existing and new temporal representations on how they contribute to improving reasoning capabilities in construction processes. Existing models differ by whether they use time points or intervals to represent activities (e.g. activity-on-node networks versus Gantt bar charts) and how clearly they communicate changes during execution. While traditional approaches exhibit shortcomings, singularity functions have significant potential for further development and could benefit from conceptual integration with situational simulation toward a powerful and integrated temporal modeling scheme.
时间视角在塑造叙事中起着至关重要的作用。这些观点包括支持施工管理实践的时间模型。虽然很少注意到时间的正式表示,但它们强烈地影响可以在过程模型中编码的变量和关系。本文的目的是说明时间可以形式化的不同方式,以及它们如何影响对项目绩效和生产力的理解。它探讨了现有的和新的时间表征,它们如何有助于提高施工过程中的推理能力。现有模型的不同之处在于它们是否使用时间点或间隔来表示活动(例如,节点上的活动网络与甘特条形图),以及它们在执行过程中如何清晰地传达变化。虽然传统方法存在不足,但奇点函数具有进一步发展的巨大潜力,并且可以从与情景模拟的概念集成中受益,从而实现强大的集成时间建模方案。
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引用次数: 0
Interacting real-time simulation models and reactive computational-physical systems 交互实时仿真模型和反应性计算物理系统
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721501
H. Sarjoughian, Soroosh Gholami, T. Jackson
For certain class of problems notably in cyber-physical systems it is necessary for simulations to be indistinguishable from computational-physical systems with which they interact. Hard real-time simulation offers controlled timing which lends it to be composed with systems operating in physical-time. Accurate real-time simulation equipped with distinct input/output modularity for simulation and software systems is proposed. To demonstrate this approach, a new model for composing ALRT-DEVS (a hard real-time simulation platform) with computational-physical systems is proposed. It provides an abstract communication model for hard real-time simulation and software systems to interact. Experiments are developed where a simulated control switch model (with single and multiple inputs and outputs) operates independent mechanical relays. In another experiment, the control switch commands are communicated with software capable of operating simulated and mechanical relays in real-time. In this setting, simulated software, physical, or computational-physical systems may be interchanged with their actual counterparts.
对于某些类型的问题,特别是在网络物理系统中,有必要将模拟与与之交互的计算物理系统区分开来。硬实时仿真提供了可控制的时序,使其能够与物理时间运行的系统相结合。针对仿真系统和软件系统提出了具有不同输入/输出模块化的精确实时仿真。为了证明这种方法,提出了一种将ALRT-DEVS(硬实时仿真平台)与计算物理系统组合在一起的新模型。它为硬实时仿真和软件系统之间的交互提供了一个抽象的通信模型。实验开发了模拟控制开关模型(具有单和多输入和输出)操作独立的机械继电器。在另一个实验中,控制开关命令与能够实时操作模拟继电器和机械继电器的软件进行通信。在这种情况下,模拟的软件、物理或计算物理系统可以与其实际对应的系统进行交换。
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引用次数: 7
Forecasting economic performance of implemented innovation openness 实施创新开放的经济绩效预测
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721565
K. Jespersen
The early stage of open innovation diffusion also hinders the use of traditional research methods in business economics. A suitable research method though relatively new in business management research is agent-based modeled simulations (ABMS). The aim of the paper is therefore also to develop an open innovation ABMS to explore the relative effects of innovation openness and initial capability endowment on firm innovation economics in a competitive context. In this respect the ABMS is applied as a data generating methodology of organizational behavior and industry dynamics. The ABMS acts as a combination of digital role play and experimental design. It is found that design and use of ABMS contribute to enlargement and testing of the usefulness and applicability of ABMS in social science.
开放创新扩散的早期阶段也阻碍了传统研究方法在商业经济学中的应用。基于agent的模型仿真(ABMS)是企业管理研究中比较新的一种合适的研究方法。因此,本文的目的也是建立一个开放式创新ABMS,以探讨竞争环境下创新开放性和初始能力禀赋对企业创新经济学的相对影响。在这方面,ABMS被用作组织行为和行业动态的数据生成方法。ABMS是数字角色扮演和实验设计的结合。研究发现,ABMS的设计和使用有助于扩大和检验ABMS在社会科学中的有用性和适用性。
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引用次数: 0
A comparison of Kanban-Like control strategies in a multi-product manufacturing system under erratic demand 不稳定需求下多产品制造系统类看板控制策略的比较
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721644
C. E. Onyeocha, Joseph Khoury, J. Geraghty
Managing demand variability is a challenging task in manufacturing environments. Organizations that implemented Kanban-Like Production Control Strategies (PCS) especially in a multi-product manufacturing environment (MPME) plan a large volume of production authorization cards (PAC) to respond to demand variability. The issue associated with high PAC for each part-type in a MPME is proliferation of Work-In-Process (WIP). Shared Kanban Allocation Policy (S-KAP) was recently proposed in the literature to allow various part-types to share PAC. An advantages of this, is that when there is a corresponding shift in demand within part-types in a MPME, the system quickly responds by allocating PAC accordingly to part-types without recourse to re-planning/re-scheduling of PAC. This paper investigates the performance of a newly developed Basestock-Kanban-CONWIP (BK-CONWIP) Control Strategy in a four-product-five-stage manufacturing system with erratic demand. Simulation based optimization was used and it is shown that BK-CONWIP operating S-KAP will outperform other Kanban-Like PCS.
在制造环境中,管理需求变化是一项具有挑战性的任务。实施类似看板的生产控制策略(PCS)的组织,特别是在多产品制造环境(MPME)中,计划大量的生产授权卡(PAC)来响应需求变化。与MPME中每种零件类型的高PAC相关的问题是在制品(WIP)的激增。最近在文献中提出了共享看板分配策略(S-KAP),允许各种零件类型共享PAC。这样做的一个优点是,当MPME中零件类型的需求发生相应的变化时,本文研究了一种基于基准库存-看板- conwip (BK-CONWIP)控制策略在需求不稳定的四产品五阶段制造系统中的性能。基于仿真的优化结果表明,运行S-KAP的BK-CONWIP将优于其他类看板pc。
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引用次数: 13
期刊
2013 Winter Simulations Conference (WSC)
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