首页 > 最新文献

Political Behavior: Cognition最新文献

英文 中文
Deep and Shallow Thinking in the Long Run 长远的深与浅思考
Pub Date : 2020-07-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3662340
H. H. Nax, Jonathan Newton
Humans differ in their strategic reasoning abilities and in beliefs about others' strategic reasoning abilities. Studying such cognitive hierarchies has produced new insights regarding equilibrium analysis in economics. This paper investigates the effect of cognitive hierarchies on long run behavior. Despite short run behavior being highly sensitive to variation in strategic reasoning abilities, this variation is not replicated in the long run. In particular, when generalized risk dominant strategy profiles exist, they emerge in the long run independently of the strategic reasoning abilities of players. These abilities may be arbitrarily low or high, heterogeneous across players, and evolving over time.
人类在策略推理能力和对他人策略推理能力的看法上存在差异。对这种认知层次的研究产生了关于经济学均衡分析的新见解。本文研究了认知等级对长期行为的影响。尽管短期行为对策略推理能力的变化高度敏感,但这种变化在长期内不会被复制。特别是,当广义风险优势策略存在时,它们会独立于玩家的策略推理能力而长期出现。这些能力可以任意高低,不同玩家之间存在差异,并随着时间的推移而进化。
{"title":"Deep and Shallow Thinking in the Long Run","authors":"H. H. Nax, Jonathan Newton","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3662340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3662340","url":null,"abstract":"Humans differ in their strategic reasoning abilities and in beliefs about others' strategic reasoning abilities. Studying such cognitive hierarchies has produced new insights regarding equilibrium analysis in economics. This paper investigates the effect of cognitive hierarchies on long run behavior. Despite short run behavior being highly sensitive to variation in strategic reasoning abilities, this variation is not replicated in the long run. In particular, when generalized risk dominant strategy profiles exist, they emerge in the long run independently of the strategic reasoning abilities of players. These abilities may be arbitrarily low or high, heterogeneous across players, and evolving over time.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126477023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Small States and International Relations Pedagogy: Exploring the Creative Agency Frontier 小国与国际关系教育学:探索创意机构前沿
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.18601/16577558.n32.05
N. Wright
Los Estados soberanos más pequeños del mun­do, que de hecho comprenden la mayoría de los Estados soberanos en todo el mundo, tie­nen mucho que enseñarnos sobre las diferentes interpretaciones del poder. La gran parte de los estudios de relaciones internacionales (ir) se han centrado tradicionalmente en el poder como control o coerción; sin embargo, el po­der también puede significar capacidad, que se logra a través de lo que este artículo identifica como agencia creativa. Aquí, la agencia crea­tiva se define como la capacidad de acuerdo con la forma en que uno interpreta el poder y los beneficios asociados con ese poder. Por lo tanto, ciertos componentes del poder, como la hegemonía regional o global, pueden no ser relevantes para la agencia creativa; por el contrario, una identidad cultural fuerte o una economía de nicho puede ser esencial. Este artículo divide los Estados pequeños en tres categorías: (1) 2 microestados, definidos aquí como Estados con poblaciones de menos de medio millón y/o un área no marítima de menos de 1,000 kilómetros cuadrados; (2) Estados con poblaciones de entre medio millón y un millón; y (3) Estados considerados peque­ños principalmente en relación con sus vecinos más grandes. Utiliza ejemplos de todas estas ca­tegorías para ilustrar el fenómeno de la agencia creativa con respecto a la formación del Estado y el tipo de gobierno y gobernanza. Debido a que el enfoque del artículo es la pedagogía, el texto incluye referencias a temas clave que los instructores pueden presentar con Estados pequeños, así como a trabajos representativos sobre Estados pequeños de ciencias políticas, derecho, historia y antropología
世界上最小的主权国家,实际上包括世界上大多数主权国家,在对权力的不同解释方面有很多可以教给我们的。大多数国际关系研究传统上集中在权力作为控制或胁迫;然而,po-der也可以指能力,这是通过本文所确定的创造性代理来实现的。在这里,创造性代理被定义为一种能力,根据一个人如何解释权力以及与这种权力相关的好处。因此,某些权力组成部分,如区域或全球霸权,可能与创意机构无关;相反,强大的文化认同或利基经济可能是必不可少的。本文将小国分为三类:(1)两个微型国家,这里定义为人口少于50万和/或非海域面积少于1000平方公里的国家;(2)人口在50万至100万之间的国家;(3)与较大的邻国相比,被认为是小国的国家。它使用所有这些类别的例子来说明关于国家形成和政府和治理类型的创造性代理现象。由于这篇文章的重点是教育学,文本包括了教师可以向小国提出的关键问题,以及在政治科学、法律、历史和人类学方面对小国的代表性著作。
{"title":"Small States and International Relations Pedagogy: Exploring the Creative Agency Frontier","authors":"N. Wright","doi":"10.18601/16577558.n32.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18601/16577558.n32.05","url":null,"abstract":"Los Estados soberanos más pequeños del mun­do, que de hecho comprenden la mayoría de los Estados soberanos en todo el mundo, tie­nen mucho que enseñarnos sobre las diferentes interpretaciones del poder. La gran parte de los estudios de relaciones internacionales (ir) se han centrado tradicionalmente en el poder como control o coerción; sin embargo, el po­der también puede significar capacidad, que se logra a través de lo que este artículo identifica como agencia creativa. Aquí, la agencia crea­tiva se define como la capacidad de acuerdo con la forma en que uno interpreta el poder y los beneficios asociados con ese poder. Por lo tanto, ciertos componentes del poder, como la hegemonía regional o global, pueden no ser relevantes para la agencia creativa; por el contrario, una identidad cultural fuerte o una economía de nicho puede ser esencial. Este artículo divide los Estados pequeños en tres categorías: (1) 2 microestados, definidos aquí como Estados con poblaciones de menos de medio millón y/o un área no marítima de menos de 1,000 kilómetros cuadrados; (2) Estados con poblaciones de entre medio millón y un millón; y (3) Estados considerados peque­ños principalmente en relación con sus vecinos más grandes. Utiliza ejemplos de todas estas ca­tegorías para ilustrar el fenómeno de la agencia creativa con respecto a la formación del Estado y el tipo de gobierno y gobernanza. Debido a que el enfoque del artículo es la pedagogía, el texto incluye referencias a temas clave que los instructores pueden presentar con Estados pequeños, así como a trabajos representativos sobre Estados pequeños de ciencias políticas, derecho, historia y antropología","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114093179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Learning from Friends in a Pandemic: Social Networks and the Macroeconomic Response of Consumption 向流行病中的朋友学习:社交网络和消费的宏观经济反应
Pub Date : 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3601500
C. Makridis, Tao Wang
This paper studies how shocks to the social network can have aggregate effects. First, using daily consumption data across counties over the COVID-19 pandemic and Facebook's Social Connectedness Index (SCI), we find that a 10% rise in SCI-weighted cases and deaths is associated with a 0.18% and 0.23% decline in consumption expenditures. These consumption effects are concentrated among consumer goods and services that rely more on social-contact, suggesting that individuals incorporate the experiences from their social network to inform their own consumption choices. Second, we calibrate a heterogenous-agent model with market incompleteness where agents form their perceptions about the local infection conditions subject to social influences. Our model shows how the aggregate consumption has further dropped due to the presence of social network amplification given the pandemic outbreaks first took place in well-connected regions. We also show how the size of aggregate responses depends on the location of the initial shocks and structure of the network.
本文研究社会网络的冲击如何产生聚合效应。首先,使用COVID-19大流行期间各国的日常消费数据和Facebook的社会联系指数(SCI),我们发现SCI加权病例和死亡人数每增加10%,消费支出就会下降0.18%和0.23%。这些消费效应集中在更依赖社会联系的消费品和服务上,这表明个人将其社会网络中的经验纳入自己的消费选择中。其次,我们校准了一个具有市场不完全性的异质代理模型,在该模型中,代理对受社会影响的本地感染条件形成了感知。我们的模型显示,鉴于大流行首先发生在联系良好的地区,由于社会网络放大的存在,总消费如何进一步下降。我们还展示了总体响应的大小如何取决于初始冲击的位置和网络的结构。
{"title":"Learning from Friends in a Pandemic: Social Networks and the Macroeconomic Response of Consumption","authors":"C. Makridis, Tao Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3601500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3601500","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies how shocks to the social network can have aggregate effects. First, using daily consumption data across counties over the COVID-19 pandemic and Facebook's Social Connectedness Index (SCI), we find that a 10% rise in SCI-weighted cases and deaths is associated with a 0.18% and 0.23% decline in consumption expenditures. These consumption effects are concentrated among consumer goods and services that rely more on social-contact, suggesting that individuals incorporate the experiences from their social network to inform their own consumption choices. Second, we calibrate a heterogenous-agent model with market incompleteness where agents form their perceptions about the local infection conditions subject to social influences. Our model shows how the aggregate consumption has further dropped due to the presence of social network amplification given the pandemic outbreaks first took place in well-connected regions. We also show how the size of aggregate responses depends on the location of the initial shocks and structure of the network.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130103874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
The Electric Telegraph, News Coverage and Political Participation 电报,新闻报道和政治参与
Pub Date : 2020-04-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3583123
Tianyi Wang
How does timely access to national news shape political outcomes? Using newly digitized data on the growth of the telegraph network, the paper studies the impact of the electric telegraph on political participation in the mid-19th century America. I use proximity to daily newspapers with telegraphic connection to Washington to generate plausibly exogenous variation in access to telegraphed news from Washington. I find that access to Washington news with less delay increased presidential election turnout. Effects were concentrated in regions least connected to Washington prior to the telegraph. For mechanisms, I provide evidence that newspapers facilitated the dissemination of national news to local areas. Text analysis on historic newspapers shows that the improved access to news from Washington led newspapers to cover more national political news, including coverage of Congress, the presidency, and sectional divisions involving slavery. The results suggest that the telegraph made newspapers less parochial, facilitated a national conversation and increased political participation.
及时获得国内新闻如何影响政治结果?本文利用电报网络发展的最新数字化数据,研究了电报对19世纪中期美国政治参与的影响。我利用与华盛顿有电报联系的日报的接近程度,在获取来自华盛顿的电报新闻方面产生了似是而非的外生变化。我发现,更少延迟地获取华盛顿新闻增加了总统选举的投票率。在电报出现之前,影响主要集中在与华盛顿联系最少的地区。至于机制,我提供了证据,证明报纸促进了全国新闻向地方传播。对历史报纸的文本分析表明,从华盛顿获得新闻的途径的改善导致报纸报道更多的国家政治新闻,包括对国会、总统和涉及奴隶制的地区分歧的报道。结果表明,电报使报纸不再那么狭隘,促进了全国性的对话,增加了政治参与。
{"title":"The Electric Telegraph, News Coverage and Political Participation","authors":"Tianyi Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3583123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3583123","url":null,"abstract":"How does timely access to national news shape political outcomes? Using newly digitized data on the growth of the telegraph network, the paper studies the impact of the electric telegraph on political participation in the mid-19th century America. I use proximity to daily newspapers with telegraphic connection to Washington to generate plausibly exogenous variation in access to telegraphed news from Washington. I find that access to Washington news with less delay increased presidential election turnout. Effects were concentrated in regions least connected to Washington prior to the telegraph. For mechanisms, I provide evidence that newspapers facilitated the dissemination of national news to local areas. Text analysis on historic newspapers shows that the improved access to news from Washington led newspapers to cover more national political news, including coverage of Congress, the presidency, and sectional divisions involving slavery. The results suggest that the telegraph made newspapers less parochial, facilitated a national conversation and increased political participation.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134507834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
News Shocks across Countries: An Empirical Investigation 跨国新闻冲击:一项实证调查
Pub Date : 2020-04-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3588030
Miguel Acosta-Henao, Marius M. Mihai
We estimate the role of news shocks to total factor productivity, foreign interest rates and commodity terms of trade in explaining the variance of output and other macro aggregates in a large sample of countries. To correct for the small-sample bias of the variance decomposition estimates we develop a Bootstrap-after-Bootstrap method. We find that the mean difference of variance share of output explained by news shocks between developing and developed countries is: I) Negligible for news shocks to total factor productivity. II) Positive for news shocks to foreign interest rates (6 p.p.) and to commodity terms of trade (8.3 p.p.). Using cross-sectional data, we find that countries with less financial development have a larger share of output variance explained by news shocks to foreign interest rates, and countries with higher total trade of commodities to output ratio and less developed financial markets exhibit a larger share of output variance explained by news shocks to commodity terms of trade. These results suggest that to study the role of news shocks in the economy, one-sector models with only shocks to total factor productivity are not adequate, and that there must be a structural distinction regarding financial markets' development when modeling developing countries as opposed to developed in a general equilibrium framework.
我们估计了新闻冲击对全要素生产率、外国利率和商品贸易条件的作用,以解释大量国家样本中产出和其他宏观总量的差异。为了纠正方差分解估计的小样本偏差,我们开发了一种Bootstrap-after-Bootstrap方法。我们发现,发展中国家和发达国家之间由新闻冲击解释的产出方差份额的平均差异是:1)新闻冲击对全要素生产率的影响可以忽略不计。II)对外国利率(6个百分点)和商品贸易条件(8.3个百分点)的新闻冲击有利。利用横断面数据,我们发现金融发展程度较低的国家由外国利率的新闻冲击解释的产出方差所占的份额较大,而商品贸易总额与产出之比较高和金融市场欠发达的国家由商品贸易条件的新闻冲击解释的产出方差所占的份额较大。这些结果表明,为了研究新闻冲击在经济中的作用,仅对全要素生产率产生冲击的单部门模型是不够的,并且在对发展中国家和在一般均衡框架下的发达国家进行建模时,必须对金融市场的发展进行结构性区分。
{"title":"News Shocks across Countries: An Empirical Investigation","authors":"Miguel Acosta-Henao, Marius M. Mihai","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3588030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3588030","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the role of news shocks to total factor productivity, foreign interest rates and commodity terms of trade in explaining the variance of output and other macro aggregates in a large sample of countries. To correct for the small-sample bias of the variance decomposition estimates we develop a Bootstrap-after-Bootstrap method. We find that the mean difference of variance share of output explained by news shocks between developing and developed countries is: I) Negligible for news shocks to total factor productivity. II) Positive for news shocks to foreign interest rates (6 p.p.) and to commodity terms of trade (8.3 p.p.). Using cross-sectional data, we find that countries with less financial development have a larger share of output variance explained by news shocks to foreign interest rates, and countries with higher total trade of commodities to output ratio and less developed financial markets exhibit a larger share of output variance explained by news shocks to commodity terms of trade. These results suggest that to study the role of news shocks in the economy, one-sector models with only shocks to total factor productivity are not adequate, and that there must be a structural distinction regarding financial markets' development when modeling developing countries as opposed to developed in a general equilibrium framework.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134132478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Misinformation During a Pandemic 大流行期间的错误信息
Pub Date : 2020-04-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3580487
Leonardo Bursztyn, Aakaash Rao, Christopher Roth, David Yanagizawa-Drott
We study the effects of news coverage of the novel coronavirus by the two most widely-viewed cable news shows in the United States – Hannity and Tucker Carlson Tonight, both on Fox News – on viewers' behavior and downstream health outcomes. Carlson warned viewers about the threat posed by the coronavirus from early February, while Hannity originally dismissed the risks associated with the virus before gradually adjusting his position starting late February. We first validate these differences in content with independent coding of show transcripts. In line with the differences in content, we present novel survey evidence that Hannity's viewers changed behavior in response to the virus later than other Fox News viewers, while Carlson's viewers changed behavior earlier. We then turn to the effects on the pandemic itself, examining health outcomes across counties. First, we document that greater viewership of Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight is strongly associated with a greater number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the early stages of the pandemic. The relationship is stable across an expansive set of robustness tests. To better identify the effect of differential viewership of the two shows, we employ a novel instrumental variable strategy exploiting variation in when shows are broadcast in relation to local sunset times. These estimates also show that greater exposure to Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight is associated with a greater number of county-level cases and deaths. Furthermore, the results suggest that in mid-March, after Hannity's shift in tone, the diverging trajectories on COVID-19 cases begin to revert. We provide additional evidence consistent with misinformation being an important mechanism driving the effects in the data. While our findings cannot yet speak to long-term effects, they indicate that provision of misinformation in the early stages of a pandemic can have important consequences for how a disease ultimately affects the population.
我们研究了美国最受欢迎的两个有线新闻节目——福克斯新闻频道的《汉尼提》和《塔克·卡尔森今夜秀》对新型冠状病毒新闻报道对观众行为和下游健康结果的影响。卡尔森从2月初开始就警告观众冠状病毒带来的威胁,而汉尼提最初否认了与病毒相关的风险,然后从2月底开始逐渐调整立场。我们首先通过独立编码来验证这些内容上的差异。根据内容的差异,我们提出了新的调查证据,表明汉尼提的观众比其他福克斯新闻的观众更晚改变行为以应对病毒,而卡尔森的观众更早改变行为。然后,我们转向对大流行本身的影响,检查各县的卫生结果。首先,我们证明,《今夜秀》的收视率高于《塔克·卡尔森》,与大流行早期更多的COVID-19病例和死亡人数密切相关。在一系列稳健性测试中,这种关系是稳定的。为了更好地识别这两个节目的不同收视率的影响,我们采用了一种新的工具变量策略,利用节目播出时间与当地日落时间相关的变化。这些估计还表明,与《今夜塔克·卡尔森》相比,与汉尼提接触越多,县级病例和死亡人数就越多。此外,结果表明,在汉尼提改变语气后的3月中旬,COVID-19病例的分化轨迹开始恢复。我们提供了额外的证据,证明错误信息是驱动数据影响的重要机制。虽然我们的研究结果还不能说明长期影响,但它们表明,在大流行的早期阶段提供错误信息可能对疾病最终如何影响人口产生重要影响。
{"title":"Misinformation During a Pandemic","authors":"Leonardo Bursztyn, Aakaash Rao, Christopher Roth, David Yanagizawa-Drott","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3580487","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3580487","url":null,"abstract":"We study the effects of news coverage of the novel coronavirus by the two most widely-viewed cable news shows in the United States – Hannity and Tucker Carlson Tonight, both on Fox News – on viewers' behavior and downstream health outcomes. Carlson warned viewers about the threat posed by the coronavirus from early February, while Hannity originally dismissed the risks associated with the virus before gradually adjusting his position starting late February. We first validate these differences in content with independent coding of show transcripts. In line with the differences in content, we present novel survey evidence that Hannity's viewers changed behavior in response to the virus later than other Fox News viewers, while Carlson's viewers changed behavior earlier. We then turn to the effects on the pandemic itself, examining health outcomes across counties. First, we document that greater viewership of Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight is strongly associated with a greater number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the early stages of the pandemic. The relationship is stable across an expansive set of robustness tests. To better identify the effect of differential viewership of the two shows, we employ a novel instrumental variable strategy exploiting variation in when shows are broadcast in relation to local sunset times. These estimates also show that greater exposure to Hannity relative to Tucker Carlson Tonight is associated with a greater number of county-level cases and deaths. Furthermore, the results suggest that in mid-March, after Hannity's shift in tone, the diverging trajectories on COVID-19 cases begin to revert. We provide additional evidence consistent with misinformation being an important mechanism driving the effects in the data. While our findings cannot yet speak to long-term effects, they indicate that provision of misinformation in the early stages of a pandemic can have important consequences for how a disease ultimately affects the population.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125257724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 285
Political Polarization and Blatant Lies on Social Media 政治两极分化和社交媒体上的公然谎言
Pub Date : 2020-04-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3579542
Samuel Santos, M. Griebeler
We propose a possible link between the political polarization among citizens and the level of shamelessness of lies issued by politicians on social media websites. To this purpose, we study the problem of a candidate who has (exogenously) decided to issue a lie on social media and that must decide how blatantly the lie should be. We assume the candidate's payoff function increases with the dissemination of the lie up to the election date. The dissemination of the lie up to the election date is shown to be a decreasing function of the shamelessness level. Nonetheless, the electorate's political polarization is an incentive for the candidate to lie brazenly. The dissemination process is carried by social media users who decide between inspecting (or not) and sharing (or not) the candidate's message. Furthermore, we include programmed bots as sources of dissemination. In this regard, we show how the influence of bots over the dissemination process relates to the electorate's political polarization level, with the lie's shamelessness and with the time interval between the posting and election dates.
我们提出公民的政治两极分化与政治家在社交媒体网站上发布的谎言的无耻程度之间可能存在联系。为此,我们研究了一个候选人的问题,他(外源性)决定在社交媒体上发布谎言,并且必须决定谎言应该有多公然。我们假设候选人的收益函数随着谎言在选举日期前的传播而增加。在选举日期之前,谎言的传播显示为无耻程度的递减函数。尽管如此,选民的政治两极分化是候选人肆无忌惮撒谎的动机。传播过程由社交媒体用户进行,他们决定是查看(或不查看)候选人的信息,还是分享(或不分享)候选人的信息。此外,我们将编程机器人作为传播来源。在这方面,我们展示了机器人对传播过程的影响如何与选民的政治两极分化程度、谎言的无耻程度以及发布和选举日期之间的时间间隔有关。
{"title":"Political Polarization and Blatant Lies on Social Media","authors":"Samuel Santos, M. Griebeler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3579542","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3579542","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a possible link between the political polarization among citizens and the level of shamelessness of lies issued by politicians on social media websites. To this purpose, we study the problem of a candidate who has (exogenously) decided to issue a lie on social media and that must decide how blatantly the lie should be. We assume the candidate's payoff function increases with the dissemination of the lie up to the election date. The dissemination of the lie up to the election date is shown to be a decreasing function of the shamelessness level. Nonetheless, the electorate's political polarization is an incentive for the candidate to lie brazenly. The dissemination process is carried by social media users who decide between inspecting (or not) and sharing (or not) the candidate's message. Furthermore, we include programmed bots as sources of dissemination. In this regard, we show how the influence of bots over the dissemination process relates to the electorate's political polarization level, with the lie's shamelessness and with the time interval between the posting and election dates.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127361731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Psychological Resilience to Major Socioeconomic Life Events 对重大社会经济生活事件的心理弹性
Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.31234/osf.io/vp48c
Fabrice Etilé, D. Johnston, P. Frijters, M. Shields
Understanding who in the population is psychologically resilient in the face of major life events, and who is not, is important for policies that target reductions in disadvantage. In this paper we construct a measure of adult resilience, document its distribution, and test its predictability by childhood socioeconomic circumstances. We use a dynamic finite mixture model applied to 17 years of panel data, and focus on the psychological reaction to ten major adverse life events. These include serious illness, major financial events, redundancy and crime victimisation. Our model accounts for non-random selection into events, anticipation of events, and differences between individuals in the immediate response and the speed of adaptation. We find considerable heterogeneity in the response to adverse events, and that resilience is strongly correlated with clinical measures of mental health. Resilience in adulthood is predictable by childhood socioeconomic circumstances; the strongest predictor is good childhood health.
了解人群中哪些人在面对重大生活事件时具有心理弹性,哪些人则没有,这对于旨在减少劣势的政策非常重要。在本文中,我们构建了一个衡量成人弹性的方法,记录了其分布,并通过儿童社会经济环境测试了其可预测性。我们使用了一个动态有限混合模型,应用于17年的面板数据,并关注对10个主要不良生活事件的心理反应。其中包括严重疾病、重大财务事件、裁员和犯罪受害。我们的模型考虑了对事件的非随机选择、对事件的预期以及个体之间在即时反应和适应速度方面的差异。我们发现在对不良事件的反应中存在相当大的异质性,并且恢复力与心理健康的临床测量密切相关。成年后的韧性可以通过童年的社会经济环境来预测;最好的预测因素是良好的童年健康。
{"title":"Psychological Resilience to Major Socioeconomic Life Events","authors":"Fabrice Etilé, D. Johnston, P. Frijters, M. Shields","doi":"10.31234/osf.io/vp48c","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/vp48c","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding who in the population is psychologically resilient in the face of major life events, and who is not, is important for policies that target reductions in disadvantage. In this paper we construct a measure of adult resilience, document its distribution, and test its predictability by childhood socioeconomic circumstances. We use a dynamic finite mixture model applied to 17 years of panel data, and focus on the psychological reaction to ten major adverse life events. These include serious illness, major financial events, redundancy and crime victimisation. Our model accounts for non-random selection into events, anticipation of events, and differences between individuals in the immediate response and the speed of adaptation. We find considerable heterogeneity in the response to adverse events, and that resilience is strongly correlated with clinical measures of mental health. Resilience in adulthood is predictable by childhood socioeconomic circumstances; the strongest predictor is good childhood health.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116052122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
TV in Times of Political Uncertainty: Evidence from the 2017 Presidential Election in Kenya 政治不确定时期的电视:来自2017年肯尼亚总统选举的证据
Pub Date : 2020-02-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3561429
E. Mougin
This paper studies the impact of the staggered introduction of digital television in Kenya between 2013 and 2017 on electoral behavior in times of political uncertainty. I construct a geocoded dataset of Kenyan polling stations and TV reception. After studying the determinants of signal availability at a fine-grained level, I estimate a first difference model to measure the impact of exposure to TV on remobilization after the nullification of the 2017 presidential election. The effect of TV is heterogeneous: turnout is lowered by 2% in pro-opposition regions while it amplifies mobilization in pro-incumbent bastions (+4%). The effect is exacerbated when voters have previously been exposed to political violence. Applying text analysis methods, I show that TV channels widely covered the crisis: these editorial choices could have amplified voters’ risk perception. I also find evidence of collective exposure to TV as another channel of TV influence on social groups.
本文研究了2013年至2017年肯尼亚交错引入数字电视对政治不确定时期选举行为的影响。我构建了一个肯尼亚投票站和电视接收的地理编码数据集。在细粒度层面研究了信号可用性的决定因素后,我估计了一个第一差分模型,以衡量2017年总统选举无效后电视对重新动员的影响。电视的影响是不同的:在支持反对派的地区,投票率降低了2%,而在支持现任的堡垒,投票率增加了4%。如果选民之前曾经历过政治暴力,这种影响就会加剧。运用文本分析方法,我发现电视频道广泛报道了这场危机:这些编辑的选择可能放大了选民的风险感知。我还发现了集体接触电视的证据,这是电视对社会群体影响的另一个渠道。
{"title":"TV in Times of Political Uncertainty: Evidence from the 2017 Presidential Election in Kenya","authors":"E. Mougin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3561429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3561429","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the impact of the staggered introduction of digital television in Kenya between 2013 and 2017 on electoral behavior in times of political uncertainty. I construct a geocoded dataset of Kenyan polling stations and TV reception. After studying the determinants of signal availability at a fine-grained level, I estimate a first difference model to measure the impact of exposure to TV on remobilization after the nullification of the 2017 presidential election. The effect of TV is heterogeneous: turnout is lowered by 2% in pro-opposition regions while it amplifies mobilization in pro-incumbent bastions (+4%). The effect is exacerbated when voters have previously been exposed to political violence. Applying text analysis methods, I show that TV channels widely covered the crisis: these editorial choices could have amplified voters’ risk perception. I also find evidence of collective exposure to TV as another channel of TV influence on social groups.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122650157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Mile Wide, an Inch Deep: Online News and Media Use in the 2019 UK General Election 一英里宽,一英寸深:2019年英国大选中的在线新闻和媒体使用
Pub Date : 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3582441
R. Fletcher, N. Newman, A. Schulz
This report presents the most detailed and comprehensive analysis to date of news use during the 2019 UK General Election. It is based on a unique tracking study of the online news consumption of 1,711 people aged 18-65 across mobile and desktop devices throughout the campaign (spanning six weeks), combined with surveys with a subset of 752 panellists fielded before and after the vote, asking them about the relative importance of offline and online news and their attitudes to the media and politics more widely. Overall, much elite and public debate around the role of the media in politics before, during, and after the election has focused on the risks of political polarisation (especially around the issue of Brexit, and with two divisive party leaders). Our analysis here suggests that the bigger issue may be that many people do not engage much with news at all, spending just 3% of their time online with news.
本报告对2019年英国大选期间的新闻使用情况进行了迄今为止最详细和全面的分析。它基于对1711名18-65岁的人在整个竞选期间(为期六周)通过移动和桌面设备进行的在线新闻消费的独特跟踪研究,并结合对投票前后752名小组成员的调查,询问他们关于离线和在线新闻的相对重要性以及他们对媒体和政治的态度。总体而言,在大选之前、期间和之后,围绕媒体在政治中的作用的许多精英和公众辩论都集中在政治两极分化的风险上(特别是围绕英国退欧问题,以及两位分裂的政党领导人)。我们的分析表明,更大的问题可能是许多人根本不怎么关注新闻,他们上网看新闻的时间只占总时间的3%。
{"title":"A Mile Wide, an Inch Deep: Online News and Media Use in the 2019 UK General Election","authors":"R. Fletcher, N. Newman, A. Schulz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3582441","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3582441","url":null,"abstract":"This report presents the most detailed and comprehensive analysis to date of news use during the 2019 UK General Election. It is based on a unique tracking study of the online news consumption of 1,711 people aged 18-65 across mobile and desktop devices throughout the campaign (spanning six weeks), combined with surveys with a subset of 752 panellists fielded before and after the vote, asking them about the relative importance of offline and online news and their attitudes to the media and politics more widely. Overall, much elite and public debate around the role of the media in politics before, during, and after the election has focused on the risks of political polarisation (especially around the issue of Brexit, and with two divisive party leaders). Our analysis here suggests that the bigger issue may be that many people do not engage much with news at all, spending just 3% of their time online with news.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122828126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
期刊
Political Behavior: Cognition
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1