The presidential primary constituency is a relatively understudied subject in the public and rhetorical presidency literature, and little is known about the strategies presidents use to maintain this group. In recent years presidents have increasingly communicated with core supporters through email lists, such as that maintained by Organizing for America/Action, President Obama’s grassroots lobbying organization. This paper uses unsupervised machine learning to analyze the topic structure of OFA emails and generate measures of the mixtures of presidential presentation strategies used in OFA communications over time. Application of Topics over Time (TOT) topic modeling to a corpus of all 967 emails sent by Organizing for America, Obama-Biden 2012, and Organizing for Action over a seven year period reveals 5 topics suggested by the data, with four focusing on bases of common interest, including shared partisan and ideological affinity, shared enemies, shared issue commitments, and shared movement membership, along with a topic focusing on the reputation of the president. These measures of presidential presentation strategies provide support for the hypothesis that presidents adopt more inclusive strategies for maintaining this constituency when economic conditions improve.
在公共和修辞总统文学中，总统初选选区是一个相对缺乏研究的主题，人们对总统维持这一群体的策略知之甚少。近年来，总统们越来越多地通过电子邮件列表与核心支持者沟通，比如奥巴马总统的基层游说组织“组织美国行动”(Organizing for America/Action)所维护的电子邮件列表。本文使用无监督机器学习来分析OFA电子邮件的主题结构，并生成OFA通信中使用的总统演讲策略随时间混合的度量。将主题随时间变化(TOT)主题建模应用于组织为美国、奥巴马-拜登2012和组织为行动在七年期间发送的所有967封电子邮件的语料库，揭示了数据建议的5个主题，其中4个主题关注共同利益的基础，包括共同的党派和意识形态亲和力、共同的敌人、共同的问题承诺、共同的运动成员，以及一个关注总统声誉的主题。总统演讲策略的这些措施为总统在经济条件改善时采取更具包容性的策略来维持这一选区的假设提供了支持。
{"title":"Primary Constituency-Focused Presidential Communication","authors":"Jonathan Klingler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3034521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3034521","url":null,"abstract":"The presidential primary constituency is a relatively understudied subject in the public and rhetorical presidency literature, and little is known about the strategies presidents use to maintain this group. In recent years presidents have increasingly communicated with core supporters through email lists, such as that maintained by Organizing for America/Action, President Obama’s grassroots lobbying organization. This paper uses unsupervised machine learning to analyze the topic structure of OFA emails and generate measures of the mixtures of presidential presentation strategies used in OFA communications over time. Application of Topics over Time (TOT) topic modeling to a corpus of all 967 emails sent by Organizing for America, Obama-Biden 2012, and Organizing for Action over a seven year period reveals 5 topics suggested by the data, with four focusing on bases of common interest, including shared partisan and ideological affinity, shared enemies, shared issue commitments, and shared movement membership, along with a topic focusing on the reputation of the president. These measures of presidential presentation strategies provide support for the hypothesis that presidents adopt more inclusive strategies for maintaining this constituency when economic conditions improve.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"336 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133870194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Oscar Calvo�?González, Axel Eizmendi, Germán Reyes
This study uses text mining techniques on almost 900 presidential ‘state-of-the-union’, type speeches from 10 Latin American countries from 1819 to 2016. The paper documents a sharp increase in recent decades in references to poverty and inequality. The study’s long-term view shows that the way in which poverty and inequality are discussed has been changing. Using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation algorithm, the paper shows that in recent years poverty has been increasingly discussed as a broader multidimensional challenge that requires a variety of social programs. Inequality has been increasingly framed as an issue of equal opportunities, whereas previously there was a greater focus on social justice. The paper assesses whether the prevalence of poverty and inequality in presidential speeches correlates with measures such as social public spending, as well as the poverty and inequality levels of the country. It finds that during the 2000s, the countries that discussed poverty and inequality at greater length were also the ones that increased social spending and educed poverty and inequality the most.
{"title":"The Changing Way Governments Talk About Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from Two Centuries of Latin American Presidential Speeches","authors":"Oscar Calvo�?González, Axel Eizmendi, Germán Reyes","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8311","url":null,"abstract":"This study uses text mining techniques on almost 900 presidential ‘state-of-the-union’, type speeches from 10 Latin American countries from 1819 to 2016. The paper documents a sharp increase in recent decades in references to poverty and inequality. The study’s long-term view shows that the way in which poverty and inequality are discussed has been changing. Using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation algorithm, the paper shows that in recent years poverty has been increasingly discussed as a broader multidimensional challenge that requires a variety of social programs. Inequality has been increasingly framed as an issue of equal opportunities, whereas previously there was a greater focus on social justice. The paper assesses whether the prevalence of poverty and inequality in presidential speeches correlates with measures such as social public spending, as well as the poverty and inequality levels of the country. It finds that during the 2000s, the countries that discussed poverty and inequality at greater length were also the ones that increased social spending and educed poverty and inequality the most.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123115470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
When a focal firm undergoes a product-harm crisis, nonfocal firms offering similar products or services can suffer from a negative spillover effect, but can also benefit from customers switching from the troubled focal firm, which we call the competitive effect. In response, a nonfocal firm can adapt its marketing strategy in consideration of these two opposing effects. Because social media is a flexible medium through which firms can quickly adjust marketing strategies in response to such unexpected events, we study how nonfocal firms adjust their post-crisis social media efforts to induce purchases and to improve customer relationships-two strategies known in the literature as offensive and defensive marketing, respectively. In particular, we use the daily social media activities of 56 major airlines on Twitter around the time of the Germanwings Flight 9525 crash to study how nonfocal airlines ran offensive and defensive marketing on social media before and after the crisis. We find that, on average, nonfocal airlines increased their defensive marketing efforts but decreased their offensive marketing efforts after the crash, which we attribute to the negative spillover effect. However, the strategic adjustment of decreasing offensive marketing is attenuated by the competition between nonfocal airlines and the focal one, which we attribute to the moderating role of the competitive effect. These results are shown to be robust in various tests and reveal how the interplay of the two effects of a product-harm crisis on nonfocal firms shapes their postcrisis social media strategies. The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/isre.2017.0707 .
{"title":"Social Media Strategies in Product-Harm Crises","authors":"Shu He, Huaxia Rui, Andrew Whinston","doi":"10.1287/isre.2017.0707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1287/isre.2017.0707","url":null,"abstract":"When a focal firm undergoes a product-harm crisis, nonfocal firms offering similar products or services can suffer from a negative spillover effect, but can also benefit from customers switching from the troubled focal firm, which we call the competitive effect. In response, a nonfocal firm can adapt its marketing strategy in consideration of these two opposing effects. Because social media is a flexible medium through which firms can quickly adjust marketing strategies in response to such unexpected events, we study how nonfocal firms adjust their post-crisis social media efforts to induce purchases and to improve customer relationships-two strategies known in the literature as offensive and defensive marketing, respectively. In particular, we use the daily social media activities of 56 major airlines on Twitter around the time of the Germanwings Flight 9525 crash to study how nonfocal airlines ran offensive and defensive marketing on social media before and after the crisis. We find that, on average, nonfocal airlines increased their defensive marketing efforts but decreased their offensive marketing efforts after the crash, which we attribute to the negative spillover effect. However, the strategic adjustment of decreasing offensive marketing is attenuated by the competition between nonfocal airlines and the focal one, which we attribute to the moderating role of the competitive effect. These results are shown to be robust in various tests and reveal how the interplay of the two effects of a product-harm crisis on nonfocal firms shapes their postcrisis social media strategies. \u0000 \u0000The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/isre.2017.0707 .","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131243081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The media industry is unique in its ability to spread information that may influence the democratic process. This influence depends on where and how citizens get their political information. While previous research has examined news production and consumption on specific media platforms --- such as newspapers, television, or the Internet --- little is known about overall news consumption across platforms. To fill this gap, we use a model of media power and individual-level survey data on news consumption to estimate the potential electoral influence of major news organizations in 18 countries. Our analysis highlights three global patterns: high levels of concentration in media power, dominant rankings by television companies, and a link between socioeconomic inequality and information inequality. We also explore international differences in the role of public-service broadcasting.
{"title":"Where Do People Get Their News?","authors":"P. Kennedy, A. Prat","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2989719","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2989719","url":null,"abstract":"The media industry is unique in its ability to spread information that may influence the democratic process. This influence depends on where and how citizens get their political information. While previous research has examined news production and consumption on specific media platforms --- such as newspapers, television, or the Internet --- little is known about overall news consumption across platforms. To fill this gap, we use a model of media power and individual-level survey data on news consumption to estimate the potential electoral influence of major news organizations in 18 countries. Our analysis highlights three global patterns: high levels of concentration in media power, dominant rankings by television companies, and a link between socioeconomic inequality and information inequality. We also explore international differences in the role of public-service broadcasting.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"342 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133951956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use a sample of undergraduate students at the North-West University in South Africa to examine the effect of the socio-cultural organization of the society on volunteerism among youth. Specifically, the binary logit regression model is employed to analyze the effects of such socio-cultural factors as age, gender, race, ethnicity, religion, family structure, maternal education, family socioeconomic status, academic performance and respondents’ perception of the importance of volunteering on five voluntary activities. We find that males, older youth, non-Africans, Afrikaans-speaking youth, and more likely to be involved in voluntary actions. Moreover, higher maternal education, regular church attendance and being a Protestant as opposed to being a Catholic are all positively associated with youth volunteering. The single most important factors with regards to youth volunteering is the youth’s perception of the importance of volunteering, a finding which underscores the role of socialization in youth volunteerism.
{"title":"The Socio-Cultural Correlates of Volunteerism Among Youth in South Africa: A Cross Sectional Study of Undergraduate Students at the North-West University in South Africa","authors":"A. Amoateng, O. S. Yaya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3502706","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3502706","url":null,"abstract":"We use a sample of undergraduate students at the North-West University in South Africa to examine the effect of the socio-cultural organization of the society on volunteerism among youth. Specifically, the binary logit regression model is employed to analyze the effects of such socio-cultural factors as age, gender, race, ethnicity, religion, family structure, maternal education, family socioeconomic status, academic performance and respondents’ perception of the importance of volunteering on five voluntary activities. We find that males, older youth, non-Africans, Afrikaans-speaking youth, and more likely to be involved in voluntary actions. Moreover, higher maternal education, regular church attendance and being a Protestant as opposed to being a Catholic are all positively associated with youth volunteering. The single most important factors with regards to youth volunteering is the youth’s perception of the importance of volunteering, a finding which underscores the role of socialization in youth volunteerism.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123014452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Political psychologists have established that politically motivated reasoning is a common phenomenon; however, the field knows comparatively less about the psychological mechanisms that drive it. Drawing on advances in the understanding of the relevance of emotion to political reasoning and behavior, we argue that anger likely plays a major role in motivating individuals to engage in the biased assimilation of political information—an evaluative bias in favor of information that bolsters one’s views and against information that undercuts them. We test this proposition with two online studies, the second of which includes a quasirepresentative sample of Americans. The studies support our expectations. Individuals felt more negative emotions toward arguments that undermined their attitudes and positive emotions toward arguments that confirmed them; however, anger was nearly alone in fueling biased reactions to issue arguments.
{"title":"The Role of Anger in the Biased Assimilation of Political Information","authors":"Elizabeth Suhay, Cengiz Erişen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3152109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3152109","url":null,"abstract":"Political psychologists have established that politically motivated reasoning is a common phenomenon; however, the field knows comparatively less about the psychological mechanisms that drive it. Drawing on advances in the understanding of the relevance of emotion to political reasoning and behavior, we argue that anger likely plays a major role in motivating individuals to engage in the biased assimilation of political information—an evaluative bias in favor of information that bolsters one’s views and against information that undercuts them. We test this proposition with two online studies, the second of which includes a quasirepresentative sample of Americans. The studies support our expectations. Individuals felt more negative emotions toward arguments that undermined their attitudes and positive emotions toward arguments that confirmed them; however, anger was nearly alone in fueling biased reactions to issue arguments.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"275 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114381158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Accusations and studies of political bias abound, with those accused of bias often considered blameworthy for perpetrating the bias. Against this background, I contend that there are in fact different conceptions of "political bias", each offering a different account of what "bias" is and what it means to be "politically biased". Analyzing these conceptions, I suggest that one common conception of political bias, that of an observed outcome that supposedly deviates from a certain standard, does not allow us to attribute blame to those who perpetrate the bias. In contrast, the conception of political bias as a process, whereby one's political preferences improperly affect one's judgment or behavior, does warrant the attribution of blame to those who perpetrate the bias.
{"title":"Political Bias(es) and the Question of Blame","authors":"O. Yair","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3046931","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3046931","url":null,"abstract":"Accusations and studies of political bias abound, with those accused of bias often considered blameworthy for perpetrating the bias. Against this background, I contend that there are in fact different conceptions of \"political bias\", each offering a different account of what \"bias\" is and what it means to be \"politically biased\". Analyzing these conceptions, I suggest that one common conception of political bias, that of an observed outcome that supposedly deviates from a certain standard, does not allow us to attribute blame to those who perpetrate the bias. In contrast, the conception of political bias as a process, whereby one's political preferences improperly affect one's judgment or behavior, does warrant the attribution of blame to those who perpetrate the bias.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116494958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In narrow terms, the Prime Minister’s Brexit speech in Florence can be judged against two tests. First, will the offers on the financial settlement and citizens’ rights represent ‘sufficient progress’ to allow talks on the future relationship to begin at last? And second, will the plan for a two-year transition period be enough to ease the widespread fears about a cliff-edge departure? In both cases, the speech is a helpful step forward, even if more will be needed. Criticisms that the speech lacked substance, merely ‘kicks the can down the road’, or is a ‘betrayal of Brexit’, all seem unfair. But it is also important not to lose sight of the bigger picture. Above all, any transition period must only be a stepping stone. The final destination should be a new and comprehensive free trade deal with the EU that also permits the UK to have a more open relationship with the rest of the world and smarter regulation at home. This surely means leaving both the Customs Union and the Single Market well behind.
{"title":"After Florence, what Next?","authors":"J. Jessop","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3853713","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3853713","url":null,"abstract":"In narrow terms, the Prime Minister’s Brexit speech in Florence can be judged against two tests. First, will the offers on the financial settlement and citizens’ rights represent ‘sufficient progress’ to allow talks on the future relationship to begin at last? And second, will the plan for a two-year transition period be enough to ease the widespread fears about a cliff-edge departure? In both cases, the speech is a helpful step forward, even if more will be needed. Criticisms that the speech lacked substance, merely ‘kicks the can down the road’, or is a ‘betrayal of Brexit’, all seem unfair. But it is also important not to lose sight of the bigger picture. Above all, any transition period must only be a stepping stone. The final destination should be a new and comprehensive free trade deal with the EU that also permits the UK to have a more open relationship with the rest of the world and smarter regulation at home. This surely means leaving both the Customs Union and the Single Market well behind.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133010326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Randomized ballot order of electoral candidates prevents unfair advantages for candidates with favorable positions on a ballot, but it also places additional cognitive strain on voters who need to search for their preferred candidates without clues. This strain could increase voters' probability of making errors. Using more than 68,000 polling-place level data from Australian House of Representatives elections, we show that the stronger the candidate at the top of a ballot, the smaller the percentage of informal (i.e., invalid and unrecorded) votes. This is because, for a larger number of voters, the most favorable candidate appears at the easiest-to-find position. The magnitude of this effect is particularly large when the number of candidates is large. Our finding implies that designing a ballot to maximize fairness among candidates could bring about an unintended consequence that is inconsistent with another important normative principle -- maximized (valid) voter participation.
{"title":"Randomized Ballot Order Can Increase Invalid Votes: Evidence from Australia","authors":"Y. Horiuchi, Alexandra Lange","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2817549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2817549","url":null,"abstract":"Randomized ballot order of electoral candidates prevents unfair advantages for candidates with favorable positions on a ballot, but it also places additional cognitive strain on voters who need to search for their preferred candidates without clues. This strain could increase voters' probability of making errors. Using more than 68,000 polling-place level data from Australian House of Representatives elections, we show that the stronger the candidate at the top of a ballot, the smaller the percentage of informal (i.e., invalid and unrecorded) votes. This is because, for a larger number of voters, the most favorable candidate appears at the easiest-to-find position. The magnitude of this effect is particularly large when the number of candidates is large. Our finding implies that designing a ballot to maximize fairness among candidates could bring about an unintended consequence that is inconsistent with another important normative principle -- maximized (valid) voter participation.","PeriodicalId":223724,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Cognition","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130894779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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