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The Limits of Political Compromise: Debt Ceilings and Political Turnover 政治妥协的极限:债务上限和政治更替
Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.1093/JEEA/JVX025
A. Cunha, E. Ornelas
We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political turnover in an economy where incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level due to rent-seeking motives. Parties alternate in office and cannot commit to future policies, but they can forge a political compromise where each party curbs excessive spending when in office if it expects future governments to do the same. In contrast to the received literature, we find that strict limits on government borrowing can exacerbate political economy distortions by making a political compromise unsustainable. This tends to happen when political turnover is limited. Conversely, a tight limit on the public debt fosters a compromise that yields the efficient outcome if political turnover is vigorous. Our analysis thus suggests that to sustain good economic policies, a society needs to restrict either the extent of political turnover or the ability of governments to issue debt, but not both.
我们研究了在一个经济体中限制公共债务和政治更替的可取性,在这个经济体中,由于寻租动机,现任者有动机将公共支出设定在社会最优水平之上。各政党轮流执政,不能对未来的政策做出承诺,但他们可以达成政治妥协,如果每个政党都希望未来的政府也这样做,那么他们可以在执政期间限制过度支出。与已有文献相反,我们发现对政府借款的严格限制会使政治妥协变得不可持续,从而加剧政治经济扭曲。这种情况往往发生在政治更替有限的时候。相反,对公共债务的严格限制促进了一种妥协,如果政治变动剧烈,就会产生有效的结果。因此,我们的分析表明,为了维持良好的经济政策,一个社会需要限制政治更替的程度或政府发行债务的能力,但不能两者兼而有之。
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引用次数: 2
인터넷 포털의 경쟁과 뉴스 콘텐츠의 선택 (Internet Portal Competition and Economic Incentive to Tailor News Slant) 互联网门户的竞争与新闻内容的选择(Internet Portal Competition and Economic Incentive to Tailor News Slant)
Pub Date : 2017-02-28 DOI: 10.36354/kjio.25.2.1
D. Choi
Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 인터넷 포털이 언론사와 뉴스를 선정하는 과정에서 정치적 편향성을 고려하는 경제적 유인에 대해 살펴보고자 한다. 인터넷 뉴스의 편향도는 2015년 1년간 국회 회의록에 기록된 국회의원들의 발언을 토대로 측정하였으며, 이는 미국 신문들의 편향도를 측정한 Gentzkow and Shapiro(2010)의 방법론을 한국어의 특성에 맞게 변용한 것이다. 당해 연도에 국내 양대 포털에 게재된 기사들을 수집하고 기사에 사용된 표현들을 추출하여 여당 편향도를 추정하였다. 분석 결과, 양 포털은 기계적 중립에 비해서 편향도가 다소 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 포털과 사용자의 편향도 차이가 커질수록 뉴스페이지에서의 클릭 수가 감소하였고, 포털의 편향도 선택이 소비자의 여당선호도와 정의 상관관계를 가짐을 확인할 수 있었다. 요컨대 포털 뉴스 소비자는 자신의 성향과 유사한 뉴스를 좀 더 소비하려고 하고, 포털은 이에 맞추어 뉴스 콘텐츠를 선택하는 것으로 보인다. 이는 온라인 광고 시장에서 수익을 높이기 위한 포털의 이윤극대화 행위로 해석이 가능하다. 또한 포털의 편향도 선택과 관련하여 양 포털 간의 차별화 효과는 존재하지만 그 크기가 미미한 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 현재 포털 뉴스 시장에서 자율규제의 적절성 및 실효성과 관련한 논의의 필요성을 시사한다. English Abstract: In this study, we examine the economic incentive to select political bias of news on Internet portals. The news slant is measured based on the expressions in congressional speeches in 2015, following Gentzkow and Shapiro (2010). The whole articles posted on two major domestic portals in the same year are used for the analysis. The higher the index value, the stronger the slant toward the ruling party. As a result, both portals locate somewhat farther from the ideology of the ruling party. Also, as the difference between portal and user increases, the number of clicks on news page decreased. The slant of portal was positively correlated with consumer 's political preference. In other words, consumers try to click on more news close to one’s preference, and the portal seems to select the news contents accordingly. We can interpret this as a profit maximization strategy of the portals in the online advertising market. In addition, there is a differentiation effect between the two portals regarding the news slant, but the size is small. These results suggest that a further discussion on the relevance and effectiveness of self-regulation in the portal news industry is necessary.
Korean Abstract:本研究将研究门户网站在选定媒体和新闻的过程中,考虑政治偏向性的经济诱因。网络新闻的偏向度是根据2015年国会会议记录中国会议员们的发言来测定的,这是将测定美国报纸偏向度的Gentzkow and Shapiro(2010)的方法论根据韩国语的特性进行改变的结果。收集本年度国内两大门户网站登载的报道,提取报道中使用的措辞,推定执政党偏向度。分析结果显示,与机械中立相比,两个门户网站的偏向度较低。而且,门户网站和用户的偏向差异越大,在新闻网页上的点击率就越减少,门户网站的偏向也可以确认选择与消费者对执政党的喜好度和正义有关。总而言之,门户网站新闻消费者想要多消费一些与自己倾向相似的新闻,而门户网站则根据这一点选择新闻内容。这可以解释为是门户网站为了在网络广告市场上提高收益而将利润极大化的行为。另外,门户网站的偏向也与选择相关,虽然存在两个门户网站之间的差别化效果,但其大小甚微。这样的结果暗示了目前在门户网站新闻市场上,有必要对自律规制的妥当性及实效性进行讨论。英语Abstract: In this study, we examine the economic incentive to select political bias of news on Internet portals。《新闻slant is measured based on The expressions in congressional speeches in 2015》,following Gentzkow and Shapiro(2010)。The whole articles posted on two major domestic portals in The same year are used for The analysis。The higher The index value, The stronger The slant toward The ruling party。As a result, both portals locate somewhat farther from the ideology of the ruling party。Also as the difference between portal and user increases, the number of clicks on news page decreased。The slant of portal was positively correlated with consumer 's political preference。In other words, consumers try to click on more news close to one ' s preference, and the portal seems to select the news contents accordingly。We can interpret this as a profit maximization strategy of the portals in the online advertising market。In addition, there is a differentiation effect between the two portals regarding the news slant, but the size is small。These results suggest that a further discussion on the relevance and effectiveness of self-regulation in the portal news industry is necessary。
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引用次数: 2
Historical Roots of Political Extremism: The Effects of Nazi Occupation of Italy 政治极端主义的历史根源:纳粹占领意大利的影响
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3091588
N. Fontana, T. Nannicini, G. Tabellini
The Italian civil war and the Nazi occupation of Italy occurred at a critical juncture, just before the birth of a new democracy and when, for the first time in a generation, Italians were choosing political affiliations and forming political identities. In this paper we study how these traumatic events shaped the new political system. We exploit geographic heterogeneity in the intensity and duration of the civil war, and the persistence of the battlefront along the "Gothic line" cutting through Northern-Central Italy. We find that the Communist Party gained votes in the post-war elections where the Nazi occupation and the civil war lasted longer, mainly at the expense of the centrist and catholic parties. This effect persists until the early 1990s. Evidence also suggests that this is due to an effect on political attitudes. Thus, the foreign occupation and the civil war left a lasting legacy of political extremism and polarization on the newborn Italian democracy.
意大利内战和纳粹对意大利的占领发生在一个关键时刻,就在一个新的民主政体诞生之前,这是一代人以来意大利人第一次选择政治派别和形成政治认同。在本文中,我们研究这些创伤性事件如何塑造了新的政治制度。我们利用了内战强度和持续时间的地理异质性,以及贯穿意大利中北部的“哥特线”前线的持久性。我们发现,在纳粹占领和内战持续时间较长的战后选举中,共产党获得了选票,主要是中间派和天主教政党的选票。这种影响一直持续到20世纪90年代初。证据还表明,这是由于对政治态度的影响。因此,外国占领和内战给新生的意大利民主留下了政治极端主义和两极分化的持久遗产。
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引用次数: 52
Digital Agoras: Democratic Legitimacy, Online Participation and Uber's Petitions 数字集市:民主合法性、在线参与和优步请愿
Pub Date : 2016-10-05 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2849401
S. Ranchordás
This article discusses the impact of social media and new technologies of participation on citizen participation in lawmaking. This article focuses on electronic petitioning and examines how Uber, a controversial ride-sharing digital platform, has employed a traditional instrument of civic engagement for lobbying purposes. Notwithstanding the platform’s ability to mobilize thousands of citizens, it is unclear how these and other online petitions should be evaluated from the point of view of their democratic legitimacy. Drawing on the analysis of Uber petitions and the review of the legal and social science literature, I argue that technology has shaped civic engagement in the case of e-petitioning, by mobilizing citizens at a faster pace, promoting political and legal discussions in apolitical platforms, and providing more information at lower costs. I suggest that technology has nonetheless not solved the democratic deficits of online petitioning, partially due to its limited influence and the leadership of participatory initiatives.
本文探讨了社会媒体和新参与技术对公民参与立法的影响。本文主要关注电子请愿,并研究优步,一个有争议的共享乘车数字平台,如何利用传统的公民参与工具来达到游说目的。尽管该平台有能力动员成千上万的公民,但尚不清楚如何从民主合法性的角度评估这些和其他在线请愿。通过对优步请愿的分析以及对法律和社会科学文献的回顾,我认为,在电子请愿的情况下,技术通过以更快的速度动员公民,促进非政治平台上的政治和法律讨论,以及以更低的成本提供更多信息,影响了公民的参与。我认为,尽管如此,技术并没有解决网上请愿的民主缺陷,部分原因是它的影响力有限,参与性倡议的领导力也有限。
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引用次数: 1
Manipulation of Self-Interest Perception Can Increase Support for Redistribution: Experimental Evidence Testing the Meltzer and Richard Model 操纵自利感知可以增加对再分配的支持:Meltzer和Richard模型的实验证据检验
Pub Date : 2016-09-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2846589
Vivekinan L. Ashok
Income inequality in the United States has increased in recent decades while public support for redistribution has failed to rise in the same period. These competing trends are often framed as countering a basic expectation in political economy (Metlzer and Richard, 1981). Recent work posits that citizens' lack of accurate information about inequality explains this empirical puzzle. In this paper, I argue that this explanation is insufficient as preferences for redistribution are contingent on the political process whereby taxes are collected and spent. I present evidence from a novel survey experiment where I manipulate a respondent's standing in the income distribution as well as the way in which tax revenues are transferred back to households. When transfers are made such that voters understand the consequences to their net income, they state self-interested demands for redistribution. However, this result is quickly diminished with the introduction of the real-world political process.
近几十年来,美国的收入不平等有所加剧,而同期公众对再分配的支持却没有增加。这些相互竞争的趋势通常被认为与政治经济学的基本预期相反(Metlzer和Richard, 1981)。最近的研究认为,公民缺乏关于不平等的准确信息解释了这一实证难题。在本文中,我认为这种解释是不够的,因为对再分配的偏好取决于税收征收和支出的政治过程。我从一个新颖的调查实验中提出证据,在这个实验中,我操纵了被调查者在收入分配中的地位,以及税收收入转移回家庭的方式。当进行转移支付时,选民明白对其净收入的影响,他们就会提出自利的再分配要求。然而,随着现实世界政治进程的引入,这种结果很快就被削弱了。
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引用次数: 0
The Changing Political Landscape for Elected Prosecutors 当选检察官不断变化的政治格局
Pub Date : 2016-08-24 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2828803
D. Sklansky
For years the only serious question about district attorney elections was whether they were pernicious or merely a charade. One view was that running for reelection turned prosecutors into politicians, and that politics demanded that prosecutors appear tough, unforgiving, and staunchly pro-police. The rival view was that prosecutorial elections were meaningless, because incumbents hardly ever lost, and campaigns focused on personalities, not on policies. Recently, though, a surprising number of district attorneys have won office by promising some combination of less aggressive charging, more vigilance against wrongful convictions, and greater scrutiny of the police. This essay examines these results and draws three tentative lessons. First, claims about the inexorable logic of criminal justice politics should be greeted with skepticism. Second, there is room for guarded optimism about electoral democracy as a tool for reforming prosecutors’ offices, but voters need better tools for evaluating how those offices are performing. Third, as reformers increase their focus on prosecutorial elections, there is a danger worth bearing in mind: the risk that prosecutorial decision-making will become inappropriately politicized, especially when elections focus on the handling or the outcome of particular cases.
多年来,关于地区检察官选举唯一严肃的问题是,它们是有害的还是仅仅是一种伪装。一种观点认为,竞选连任将检察官变成了政治家,而政治要求检察官表现出强硬、无情、坚定的亲警态度。另一种观点认为,检察官选举毫无意义,因为在任者几乎从未输过,而且竞选关注的是个性,而不是政策。然而,最近,令人惊讶的是,许多地方检察官通过承诺减少激进的指控、提高对错误定罪的警惕和加强对警察的审查的某种组合而赢得了职位。本文考察了这些结果,并得出了三个初步的教训。首先,关于刑事司法政治的无情逻辑的说法应该受到质疑。其次,对于选举民主作为改革检察官办公室的工具,我们有谨慎乐观的余地,但选民需要更好的工具来评估这些办公室的表现。第三,随着改革者越来越关注检察官选举,有一种危险值得牢记在心:检察官的决策有可能被不恰当地政治化,特别是当选举关注特定案件的处理或结果时。
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引用次数: 18
The Effect of Politician Career Concerns on Media Slant and Market Return: Evidence from China 政治家职业关注对媒体倾向性和市场回报的影响:来自中国的证据
Pub Date : 2016-07-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2813725
Li Jin, Nianhang Xu, Weining Zhang
We document that Chinese city officials are more likely to be promoted if firms under their jurisdictions receive less negative media coverage towards their term-ends. Consequently, local officials suppress negative news of local companies at their term-ends. Such distortion worsens the information environment. We show that a trading strategy exploiting this informational inefficiency can generate a 12% per annum abnormal return. We also find that officials with stronger career concerns are more likely to suppress negative news. Taken together, politician career concern appears to be an important determinant of capital market information efficiency in China.
我们的研究表明,如果中国城市官员在其管辖范围内的公司在其任期结束时受到较少的负面媒体报道,他们就更有可能获得晋升。因此,地方官员在任期结束时压制有关地方企业的负面消息。这种扭曲恶化了信息环境。我们表明,利用这种信息效率低下的交易策略可以产生每年12%的异常回报。我们还发现,有更强职业关注度的官员更有可能压制负面新闻。综上所述,政治家的职业生涯关注似乎是中国资本市场信息效率的重要决定因素。
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引用次数: 10
Paths of Recruitment: Rational Social Prospecting in Petition Canvassing 招聘路径:信访中的理性社会勘探
Pub Date : 2016-06-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2795336
Clayton Nall, Benjamin Schneer, D. Carpenter
Petition canvassers are political recruiters. Building upon the rational prospector model, we theorize that rational recruiting strategies are dynamic (Bayesian and time-conscious), spatial (constrained by geography) and social (conditioned on relations between canvasser and prospect). Our theory predicts that canvassers will exhibit homophily in their canvassing preferences and will alternate between "door- to-door” and “attractor” (working in a central location) strategies based upon systematic geographical variation. They will adjust their strategies midstream (mid-petition) based upon experience. Introducing methods to analyze canvassing data, we test these hypotheses on geocoded signatory lists from two petition drives — a 2005-2006 anti-Iraq War initiative in Wisconsin and an 1839 antislavery campaign in New York City. Canvassers in these campaigns exhibited homophily to the point of following geographically and politically “inefficient” paths. In the aggregate, these patterns may exacerbate political inequality, limiting political involvement of the poorer and less educated.
请愿拉票员是政治招募者。在理性探矿者模型的基础上,我们推测理性招聘策略是动态的(贝叶斯和时间意识)、空间的(受地理限制)和社会的(受考察者和潜在客户之间关系的限制)。我们的理论预测,拉票员将在他们的拉票偏好上表现出同质性,并将根据系统的地理变化在“门到门”和“吸引者”(在中心位置工作)策略之间交替。他们会根据经验在中途调整策略。引入分析拉票数据的方法,我们在两个请愿运动的地理编码签名名单上测试了这些假设——一个是2005-2006年威斯康星州的反伊拉克战争倡议,一个是1839年纽约市的反奴隶制运动。在这些竞选活动中,游说者表现出了同质性,以至于遵循地理和政治上“低效”的道路。总的来说,这些模式可能会加剧政治不平等,限制较贫穷和受教育程度较低的人参与政治。
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引用次数: 8
Making It About Morals: Pope Francis Shifts the Climate Change Debate 关于道德:教皇弗朗西斯改变了气候变化辩论
Pub Date : 2016-05-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2997490
A. Landrum, Robert B. Lull, Heather Akin, K. Jamieson
In June 2015, Pope Francis released his papal encyclical, Laudato si’: On Care of our Common Home, urging global action toward climate change mitigation. The official Catholic document was widely praised for its unique rhetorical approach that emphasized climate change mitigation as a moral obligation shared among all people (Maxwell & Miller, 2015). As the spiritual leader of over 1 billion Catholics worldwide, Pope Francis was well-positioned not only to appeal to his followers’ moral sensibilities, but to instigate an even broader impact among non-Catholics. Here we present two studies that examine the viability of its rhetorical strategy as a proximal metric of the encyclical’s success. In the first study, we used Moral Foundations Theory to analyze the text of Laudato si’ and categorize some of its moral arguments according to how those arguments might have appealed to different ideological groups. In the second study, we used nationally-representative survey data to examine to what extent these different ideological groups accepted the moral arguments offered in Laudato si’.
2015年6月,教宗方济各发布了教皇通谕《赞美你:关爱我们共同的家园》,敦促全球采取行动减缓气候变化。天主教官方文件因其独特的修辞方法而广受赞誉,该方法强调减缓气候变化是所有人共同承担的道德义务(Maxwell & Miller, 2015)。作为全球超过10亿天主教徒的精神领袖,方济各教皇不仅能够吸引追随者的道德敏感性,还能在非天主教徒中激起更广泛的影响。在这里,我们提出了两项研究,研究其修辞策略的可行性,作为通谕成功的近距离度量。在第一个研究中,我们使用道德基础理论来分析《愿上帝保佑》的文本,并根据这些论点对不同意识形态群体的吸引力,对其中的一些道德论点进行分类。在第二项研究中,我们使用具有全国代表性的调查数据来检验这些不同的意识形态群体在多大程度上接受了《赞美你》中提供的道德论点。
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引用次数: 5
Online Services and Social Media Use in Romanian Cities: Can We See a Pattern? 罗马尼亚城市的网络服务和社交媒体使用:我们能看到一种模式吗?
Pub Date : 2016-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3044274
N. Urs
E-government services are increasingly seen, even in Romania, as part of the public institution’s raison d’etre. More than half of Romanians use the internet on a regular basis, and most of the new connections to the internet are made from mobile devices (smartphones and tablets). Being able to interact with public administration from anywhere, and with ease, is something that people (especially young people) expect. This is particularly evident in big cities, where over 70% of people use the internet. This trend of demanding more and better services is intertwined with changes in media consumption patterns. More and more people use social media as one of the most important (if not the most important) source of information. Aside from that, social media sites offer something that the traditional media could not provide: easy two-way interaction and constant updating. The old media paradigm of one-to-many is blown away by hundreds of millions of users, connected through a bewilderingly complex network, many of them plugged-in round the clock. In this paper, we tried to gauge the importance that the Romanian County Capital Cities plus those of the 6 Bucharest Sectors give to e-government; for this we evaluated the online services offered to citizens as well as to companies and created an index of e-government development in Romanian cities. We also analyzed the Facebook accounts of these cities to assess the way in which social media is used on their official accounts. We compared these two datasets as well, to see if there is any correlation between the stage of e-government implementation and the proficiency of social media use.
电子政务服务越来越被视为公共机构存在的原因之一,甚至在罗马尼亚也是如此。超过一半的罗马尼亚人经常上网,而且大多数新上网的人都是通过移动设备(智能手机和平板电脑)上网的。能够在任何地方轻松地与公共行政部门互动,是人们(尤其是年轻人)所期望的。这在大城市尤为明显,超过70%的人使用互联网。这种要求更多更好的服务的趋势与媒体消费模式的变化交织在一起。越来越多的人使用社交媒体作为最重要的(如果不是最重要的)信息来源之一。除此之外,社交媒体网站提供了一些传统媒体无法提供的东西:简单的双向互动和不断更新。数以亿计的用户通过一个令人眼花缭乱的复杂网络连接在一起,其中许多人24小时不间断地上网,这种一对多的旧媒体模式被打破了。在本文中,我们试图衡量罗马尼亚县首府城市加上布加勒斯特6个部门对电子政务的重要性;为此,我们评估了向公民和公司提供的在线服务,并创建了罗马尼亚城市电子政务发展指数。我们还分析了这些城市的Facebook账户,以评估社交媒体在其官方账户上的使用方式。我们还比较了这两个数据集,以了解电子政务实施阶段与社交媒体使用熟练程度之间是否存在相关性。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Political Behavior: Cognition
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