This paper considers how the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula might be achieved. It suggests that change could be achieved through the impartation of social capital through personal experience. It proposes limited economic participation between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea, as a vehicle for imparting social capital and as a means of beginning a gradual reunification of the peninsula. It also suggests that sanctions remain in place during any reunification process.
{"title":"An Economy of Peace","authors":"Jessica Allen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3121779","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3121779","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers how the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula might be achieved. It suggests that change could be achieved through the impartation of social capital through personal experience. It proposes limited economic participation between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea, as a vehicle for imparting social capital and as a means of beginning a gradual reunification of the peninsula. It also suggests that sanctions remain in place during any reunification process.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125157407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents mathematical models for cyber breach probability as function of security spending in protecting a firm’s ICT systems. We derive optimal level of security investment as percentage of value-at-risk. We show that the upper bound of optimal investment can be 1/e, 1/√2π or other percentages of value-at-risk, depending on the cyber breach probability model. We apply the models to derive optimal security budget allocation for protecting ICT systems with multiple areas of vulnerability and multiple data assets. Our analysis highlights the importance of security measures to cover the full spectrum of areas of vulnerability; neglecting one area of vulnerability can render the security investment ineffective and wasteful. Moreover, optimal economic value can be achieved by differential treatment of a firm’s high-value data assets.
{"title":"Optimal Level and Allocation of Cybersecurity Spending: Model and Formula","authors":"Shaun S. Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3010029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3010029","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents mathematical models for cyber breach probability as function of security spending in protecting a firm’s ICT systems. We derive optimal level of security investment as percentage of value-at-risk. We show that the upper bound of optimal investment can be 1/e, 1/√2π or other percentages of value-at-risk, depending on the cyber breach probability model. We apply the models to derive optimal security budget allocation for protecting ICT systems with multiple areas of vulnerability and multiple data assets. Our analysis highlights the importance of security measures to cover the full spectrum of areas of vulnerability; neglecting one area of vulnerability can render the security investment ineffective and wasteful. Moreover, optimal economic value can be achieved by differential treatment of a firm’s high-value data assets.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127940720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Identifying the flow of financing of asymmetric combatants especially in fourth-generation warfare proves to be very demanding. Whereas "traditional" banking channels might be possible to control to a certain extent (i.e. SWIFT transfers), fund transfers through charitable organisations or state sponsoring of terrorism are much more difficult to monitor. Knowing the potential for law-enforcement and intelligence agencies to monitor SWIFT activities and other electronic means of transfer, other parallel remittance systems (Hawala) have taken a much more important role in financing combatants in asymmetric conflicts. In future the anonymity and minimal documentation of such transfers will be even surpassed by the possible use of cryptocurrencies. The financing systems of combatants in asymmetric confilcts demonstrates a flexible and adaptive approach. But as all these channels are mostly used for legal transfers between legitimate partners, any heavy regime of new regulations would make all transactions costlier and less convenient. Such negative economic impact is opposing the need of monitoring the financing of asymmetric opponent groups. To solve this situation, the focus should lie on the attempts to make the risk of detection of such transfers higher for the parties involved. Without interfering too strongly with the financing channels, this process asks for improved compliance and cooperation on all levels and capacity. With the increasing importance of cryptocurrencies, a completely new field of complex problems is arising through the implied anonymity and complexity or sheer impossibility to track transfers in the dark net. As regulations in this new financial market will be difficult to enforce, it is necessary to establish international cooperation and capacity building to implement some possibilities for law-enforcement and intelligence entities to monitor the illegal flows of capital.
{"title":"Financing of Combatants in Asymmetric Conflicts","authors":"Stephan U. Breu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3058971","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3058971","url":null,"abstract":"Identifying the flow of financing of asymmetric combatants especially in fourth-generation warfare proves to be very demanding. Whereas \"traditional\" banking channels might be possible to control to a certain extent (i.e. SWIFT transfers), fund transfers through charitable organisations or state sponsoring of terrorism are much more difficult to monitor. Knowing the potential for law-enforcement and intelligence agencies to monitor SWIFT activities and other electronic means of transfer, other parallel remittance systems (Hawala) have taken a much more important role in financing combatants in asymmetric conflicts. In future the anonymity and minimal documentation of such transfers will be even surpassed by the possible use of cryptocurrencies. \u0000The financing systems of combatants in asymmetric confilcts demonstrates a flexible and adaptive approach. But as all these channels are mostly used for legal transfers between legitimate partners, any heavy regime of new regulations would make all transactions costlier and less convenient. Such negative economic impact is opposing the need of monitoring the financing of asymmetric opponent groups. To solve this situation, the focus should lie on the attempts to make the risk of detection of such transfers higher for the parties involved. Without interfering too strongly with the financing channels, this process asks for improved compliance and cooperation on all levels and capacity. With the increasing importance of cryptocurrencies, a completely new field of complex problems is arising through the implied anonymity and complexity or sheer impossibility to track transfers in the dark net. As regulations in this new financial market will be difficult to enforce, it is necessary to establish international cooperation and capacity building to implement some possibilities for law-enforcement and intelligence entities to monitor the illegal flows of capital.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125695054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
For many organisations in a war-torn and poor developing countries, finding and implementing a suitable strategy in conducting operational activities in an effective manner is a steep hill to climb. This is especially overwhelming when an organisation has limited financial resources, limitations in attracting knowledge workers as well as operating in an unstable economic and political environment. The previous is the case concerning an Afghan not-for-profit organisation (NGO), set-up several years ago with donor funding from the European Union, and operating in conjunction with two foreign universities. Moreover, developing a competitive edge structure, and adding customer value is also crucial in a developing country with unstable amenities and complex cultural and socioeconomic characteristics, where available money is low. In the context of this paper, it has been identified that there are various organisational shortcomings in developing an understandable structure in identifying external variables that should enhance sustainability, and add additional value to customers. The literature inspired for this paper was mainly found in blue ocean strategy, competitive strategy, and ethics, and further highlighted by reviewing cultural characteristics relevant to the NGO’s current situation. However, the main objective of this paper was the construction of a generic framework identifying internal and external variables to enhance a better understanding of the NGO’s market players and other perceived commonalities as a platform for sustainability. The outlines and comments in this paper are based on the author’s practical experiences and through observations as a business mentor and business advisor in various organisational settings in Afghanistan. Therefore, the constructed framework should not only benefit the NGO, but also act as a catalyst for its member businesses, and should not be seen as a means to an end. Nevertheless, more empirical studies are needed in better understanding tribal behavioural elements that exist within an organisational setting, and how they conduct their business transactions with external actors. This paper contributes to the management decision literature by instigating a generic framework that can be used by other commercial or non-commercial entities as a foundation for further organisational development.
{"title":"Blue Ocean Versus Competitive Strategy: A Systematic Approach for an Afghan NGO","authors":"Gerard H. Th. Bruijl","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3026870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3026870","url":null,"abstract":"For many organisations in a war-torn and poor developing countries, finding and implementing a suitable strategy in conducting operational activities in an effective manner is a steep hill to climb. This is especially overwhelming when an organisation has limited financial resources, limitations in attracting knowledge workers as well as operating in an unstable economic and political environment. The previous is the case concerning an Afghan not-for-profit organisation (NGO), set-up several years ago with donor funding from the European Union, and operating in conjunction with two foreign universities. Moreover, developing a competitive edge structure, and adding customer value is also crucial in a developing country with unstable amenities and complex cultural and socioeconomic characteristics, where available money is low. In the context of this paper, it has been identified that there are various organisational shortcomings in developing an understandable structure in identifying external variables that should enhance sustainability, and add additional value to customers. The literature inspired for this paper was mainly found in blue ocean strategy, competitive strategy, and ethics, and further highlighted by reviewing cultural characteristics relevant to the NGO’s current situation. However, the main objective of this paper was the construction of a generic framework identifying internal and external variables to enhance a better understanding of the NGO’s market players and other perceived commonalities as a platform for sustainability. The outlines and comments in this paper are based on the author’s practical experiences and through observations as a business mentor and business advisor in various organisational settings in Afghanistan. Therefore, the constructed framework should not only benefit the NGO, but also act as a catalyst for its member businesses, and should not be seen as a means to an end. Nevertheless, more empirical studies are needed in better understanding tribal behavioural elements that exist within an organisational setting, and how they conduct their business transactions with external actors. This paper contributes to the management decision literature by instigating a generic framework that can be used by other commercial or non-commercial entities as a foundation for further organisational development.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"153 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124276087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Amazon’s home assistant, Echo, became a key piece of evidence in a 2015 murder case as the device was believed to be recording crucial conversation on the night of the victim’s death. In the ‘era of ubiquitous listening’, where devices constantly scan for user voice command to perform tasks, violation to privacy results from user’s response to smart technology. This exploratory paper examines behavioural vulnerabilities that are prone to exploitation in the adoption of speech-activated home assistants and considers the implications in terms of privacy challenges arising from mass adoption of the technology. Anthropomorphism is a behavioural trait that leads to the likelihood of speech-activated devices being exploited. It encompasses factors such as intonation cues, visual cues, convenience, and sociability. Habituation to the presence of speech-activated home assistants gives rise to challenges to user privacy and security. For practitioners, legal provision must be made to accommodate potentially ubiquitous speech-activated technology.
{"title":"The Era of Ubiquitous Listening: Living in a World of Speech-Activated Devices","authors":"Jennifer Yang Hui, Dymples Leong","doi":"10.18003/AJPA.201711","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18003/AJPA.201711","url":null,"abstract":"Amazon’s home assistant, Echo, became a key piece of evidence in a 2015 murder case as the device was believed to be recording crucial conversation on the night of the victim’s death. In the ‘era of ubiquitous listening’, where devices constantly scan for user voice command to perform tasks, violation to privacy results from user’s response to smart technology. This exploratory paper examines behavioural vulnerabilities that are prone to exploitation in the adoption of speech-activated home assistants and considers the implications in terms of privacy challenges arising from mass adoption of the technology. Anthropomorphism is a behavioural trait that leads to the likelihood of speech-activated devices being exploited. It encompasses factors such as intonation cues, visual cues, convenience, and sociability. Habituation to the presence of speech-activated home assistants gives rise to challenges to user privacy and security. For practitioners, legal provision must be made to accommodate potentially ubiquitous speech-activated technology.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114290244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Julian Arteaga-Vallejo, Carolina Castro Osorio, D. Cuéllar, A. M. Ibáñez, Rocío Londoño Botero, Manuel V. Murcia, J. Neva, A. Nieto, Dora Inés Rey, Fabio Sánchez
Spanish Abstract: El primer punto del Acuerdo de La Habana [y del Teatro Colon], “Hacia un nuevo campo colombiano: una reforma rural integral”, promueve la asignacion de tierras a familias campesinas que carecen de tierra o tienen tierra insuficiente. Para esto, propone la creacion de un Fondo de Tierras, que sera destinado a la adjudicacion de tierras, y la formalizacion de la propiedad. Tres son los objetivos de este documento. Primero, el documento realiza un analisis historico de los procesos de adjudicacion de tierras emprendidos por el Estado colombiano desde finales del siglo XIX hasta hoy. Segundo, estima la oferta de tierras disponible para alcanzar los objetivos del Acuerdo Agrario. Tercero, hace una exploracion tentativa de la demanda potencial de tierras. El total de hectareas potencialmente disponibles para el Fondo de Tierras es 2.7 millones. Tras anadir los baldios y otras tierras de dominio estatal adjudicables, la oferta de tierras podria incrementar entre 3.9 y 5.3 millones hectareas. La formalizacion de predios restituidos a la poblacion desplazada podria alcanzar 4.6 millones de hectareas. Al anadir las tres fuentes, la asignacion de tierras en el marco del acuerdo agrario podria ascender entre 11.2 y 12.6 millones de hectareas. English Abstract: The first point of the Colombian Peace Accord negotiated in La Habana, “Towards a New Colombian Countryside: A Comprehensive Rural Reform”, promotes land access to landless rural households or those with plots of insufficient size. In order to achieve this goal, the agreement proposes the creation of a Land Fund for adjudicating land and the formalization of property rights. The objective of this paper is threefold. First, the paper provides a historic analysis of the land adjudication processes undertaken by the Colombian state since the end of the XIX century till today. Second, the paper estimates the land available to achieve the goals of the peace agreement. Third, the paper explores the potential demand for land of rural households. The total hectares potentially available for the Land Fund are 2.7 million. After adding state land, the potential supply could increase between 3.9 y 5.3 million hectares. Formalizing the land restituted to the internally displaced population could reach 4.6 million hectares. After adding these three sources, the potential land to adjudicate could range between 11.2 y 12.6 million hectares.
{"title":"Fondo De Tierras Del Acuerdo Agrario De La Habana: Estimaciones Y Propuestas Alternativas (The Land Fund of the Colombian Peace Agreement: Estimations and Alternative Proposals)","authors":"Julian Arteaga-Vallejo, Carolina Castro Osorio, D. Cuéllar, A. M. Ibáñez, Rocío Londoño Botero, Manuel V. Murcia, J. Neva, A. Nieto, Dora Inés Rey, Fabio Sánchez","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2984024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2984024","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: El primer punto del Acuerdo de La Habana [y del Teatro Colon], “Hacia un nuevo campo colombiano: una reforma rural integral”, promueve la asignacion de tierras a familias campesinas que carecen de tierra o tienen tierra insuficiente. Para esto, propone la creacion de un Fondo de Tierras, que sera destinado a la adjudicacion de tierras, y la formalizacion de la propiedad. Tres son los objetivos de este documento. Primero, el documento realiza un analisis historico de los procesos de adjudicacion de tierras emprendidos por el Estado colombiano desde finales del siglo XIX hasta hoy. Segundo, estima la oferta de tierras disponible para alcanzar los objetivos del Acuerdo Agrario. Tercero, hace una exploracion tentativa de la demanda potencial de tierras. El total de hectareas potencialmente disponibles para el Fondo de Tierras es 2.7 millones. Tras anadir los baldios y otras tierras de dominio estatal adjudicables, la oferta de tierras podria incrementar entre 3.9 y 5.3 millones hectareas. La formalizacion de predios restituidos a la poblacion desplazada podria alcanzar 4.6 millones de hectareas. Al anadir las tres fuentes, la asignacion de tierras en el marco del acuerdo agrario podria ascender entre 11.2 y 12.6 millones de hectareas. \u0000English Abstract: The first point of the Colombian Peace Accord negotiated in La Habana, “Towards a New Colombian Countryside: A Comprehensive Rural Reform”, promotes land access to landless rural households or those with plots of insufficient size. In order to achieve this goal, the agreement proposes the creation of a Land Fund for adjudicating land and the formalization of property rights. The objective of this paper is threefold. First, the paper provides a historic analysis of the land adjudication processes undertaken by the Colombian state since the end of the XIX century till today. Second, the paper estimates the land available to achieve the goals of the peace agreement. Third, the paper explores the potential demand for land of rural households. The total hectares potentially available for the Land Fund are 2.7 million. After adding state land, the potential supply could increase between 3.9 y 5.3 million hectares. Formalizing the land restituted to the internally displaced population could reach 4.6 million hectares. After adding these three sources, the potential land to adjudicate could range between 11.2 y 12.6 million hectares.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114310520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines U.S. military spending from 2000-2015 in an attempt to determine whether cuts in military spending have decimated the U.S. military, as some political leaders suggest, and whether a large increase in military spending can be justified.
{"title":"U.S. Military Spending: A Look at Some Statistics","authors":"Robert W. McGee","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2927550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2927550","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines U.S. military spending from 2000-2015 in an attempt to determine whether cuts in military spending have decimated the U.S. military, as some political leaders suggest, and whether a large increase in military spending can be justified.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132564214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the drivers of the 2010 Uprising in Egypt. It argues that the drivers of the are the economic and political developments in Egypt since the 1960s. The political and economic developments by 2010 had led to the disaffection of the middle classes with the regime and the breakdown of the authoritarian bargain. They formed an alliance with the working class that was experiencing increasing economic hardship.
{"title":"The Political, Social and Economic Drivers of the 2011 Egyptian Uprising","authors":"P. Abbott, A. Teti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2902909","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2902909","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the drivers of the 2010 Uprising in Egypt. It argues that the drivers of the are the economic and political developments in Egypt since the 1960s. The political and economic developments by 2010 had led to the disaffection of the middle classes with the regime and the breakdown of the authoritarian bargain. They formed an alliance with the working class that was experiencing increasing economic hardship.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"248 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123194242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vanessa van den Boogaard, Wilson Prichard, Nikola Milicic, M. Benson
How does conflict affect tax revenue mobilization? This paper uses a newly updated dataset to explore longitudinal trends of tax revenue mobilization prior to, during, and after conflict periods in a selection of conflict-affected states since 1980. This medium-N trend analysis is complemented by prototypical case study analysis, which provides greater insight into the relationship between tax revenue performance over time and the characteristics of the conflicts in question. Offering detailed snapshots of tax experiences prior to, during, and after conflict, this paper provides an empirical counterpoint to theories about the role of taxation in war-making and state building.
{"title":"Tax Revenue Mobilization in Conflict-Affected Developing Countries","authors":"Vanessa van den Boogaard, Wilson Prichard, Nikola Milicic, M. Benson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3120500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3120500","url":null,"abstract":"How does conflict affect tax revenue mobilization? This paper uses a newly updated dataset to explore longitudinal trends of tax revenue mobilization prior to, during, and after conflict periods in a selection of conflict-affected states since 1980. This medium-N trend analysis is complemented by prototypical case study analysis, which provides greater insight into the relationship between tax revenue performance over time and the characteristics of the conflicts in question. Offering detailed snapshots of tax experiences prior to, during, and after conflict, this paper provides an empirical counterpoint to theories about the role of taxation in war-making and state building.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121444077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Forecasting hazards in the world appears to be one of the key tasks in the support to policy and decision making on different levels. Studies on the prognoses of research institutes and their comparisons to reality reveal some important considerations in methods and approaches used, as well as open field of further research. The paper outlines the main findings in the CIA report about major factors in the global policy and development for 2015. From the perspective of today’ realities it makes analyses of forecasts and juxtapose them which provides opportunities to conclude on the significance of the forecasts when dealing with trends in the most heavy problems in front of the humanity as: global terrorism, climate change, under nutrition and many others threatening with conflicts of different character.
{"title":"CIA Report of 2000 About the Hazards in the World in 2015 and the Situation Nowadays","authors":"V. Terziev, Marin Petkov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3142895","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3142895","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting hazards in the world appears to be one of the key tasks in the support to policy and decision making on different levels. Studies on the prognoses of research institutes and their comparisons to reality reveal some important considerations in methods and approaches used, as well as open field of further research. The paper outlines the main findings in the CIA report about major factors in the global policy and development for 2015. From the perspective of today’ realities it makes analyses of forecasts and juxtapose them which provides opportunities to conclude on the significance of the forecasts when dealing with trends in the most heavy problems in front of the humanity as: global terrorism, climate change, under nutrition and many others threatening with conflicts of different character.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134559124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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