Pub Date : 2014-03-14DOI: 10.1163/18750230-02503004
R. Petrov
The first part of the article is devoted to a study of the scope and content of the ENP and the EaP and their impact on security in the region. The second part of the paper analyses the impact of the EU neighbourhood policies on the ‘post-Crimea’ and ‘post-Donbass’ EU neighbourhood.
{"title":"The EU Neighbourhood Policies and the Security Crises within the Eastern Neighbourhood","authors":"R. Petrov","doi":"10.1163/18750230-02503004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/18750230-02503004","url":null,"abstract":"The first part of the article is devoted to a study of the scope and content of the ENP and the EaP and their impact on security in the region. The second part of the paper analyses the impact of the EU neighbourhood policies on the ‘post-Crimea’ and ‘post-Donbass’ EU neighbourhood.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"42 11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115501732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The end of H1 2013 has been marked by frustrated military construction designs contrary to expectations of many members of the Russian Government and Presidential Executive Office. It appears that the problem has been caused not only by economic factors which are out of the scope of the Russian military organization. Other causes have come to the forefront – systemic mistakes in the national planning and management of the military construction itself
{"title":"Appropriate Adjustment to the Military Construction","authors":"V. Tsymbal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2330923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2330923","url":null,"abstract":"The end of H1 2013 has been marked by frustrated military construction designs contrary to expectations of many members of the Russian Government and Presidential Executive Office. It appears that the problem has been caused not only by economic factors which are out of the scope of the Russian military organization. Other causes have come to the forefront – systemic mistakes in the national planning and management of the military construction itself","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"73 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130184039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Contemporary global security moment are characterized by great interaction of national and supra-national security structure, the interdependence of national, regional and multilateral forms of higher security integration. However, the role of the state as a single security entity in international relations remains a crucial and indispensable role in the broadest observation security organization. Also, in the contemporary global security paradigm, actualization of asymmetric forms of endangering state security should not be overlooked. The arising question is: How much individual country, especially those in transition process, could comprehensively respond to the current form of asymmetric national security threats to critical infrastructure? Moreover, South East Europe (SEE), or even closer, Western Balkan region, is the part of European continent that we can, by historically overlook, analyzing as the cradle and arena of complex, escalating conflicts. All of them are concluded by the mediation of third part, usually through the negotiation and bargaining of the “big players” on the world’s stage. In this region, the nation’s looking for their own national paradigms, which are often in correlation with the interests of global powers. The beginning of the twenty-first century reflects a significant aspiration of all countries in this part of Europe for development of partnership and allied relations toward of contemporary security risks and threats. Acknowledging the declarations and growing bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the field of security and defense, yet, the questions arises as: Whether states of Southeast Europe identify same security risks and threats? Do they have a unanimous opinion of the potential ways of the vulnerability of critical national infrastructure? Do they share the perception that the security of Southeast Europe are equally nationally as well as common regional issue? The complexity and multifaceted of named questions leads to necessity of a comprehensive approach to the analysis of forms of potential endangering elements of national critical infrastructure which are crucial for security. In addition, particular attention should be paid to unconventional, asymmetric forms of national security jeopardizing and their potential endangering effects on elements of national critical infrastructure. In this paper authors offer the possible overlook of the cross analysis of asymmetrical endangering of national critical infrastructure of Western Balkan countries, as part of SEE. In paper authors use comparative analysis of contemporary approach to the concept of asymmetric security threats, through the prism of particular states perception of endangering forms regarding their national critical infrastructure.
{"title":"Comprehensive Approach to the Asymmetric Endangerment of National Critical Infrastructure","authors":"M. Mitrović","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2942036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2942036","url":null,"abstract":"Contemporary global security moment are characterized by great interaction of national and supra-national security structure, the interdependence of national, regional and multilateral forms of higher security integration. However, the role of the state as a single security entity in international relations remains a crucial and indispensable role in the broadest observation security organization. Also, in the contemporary global security paradigm, actualization of asymmetric forms of endangering state security should not be overlooked. The arising question is: How much individual country, especially those in transition process, could comprehensively respond to the current form of asymmetric national security threats to critical infrastructure? \u0000Moreover, South East Europe (SEE), or even closer, Western Balkan region, is the part of European continent that we can, by historically overlook, analyzing as the cradle and arena of complex, escalating conflicts. All of them are concluded by the mediation of third part, usually through the negotiation and bargaining of the “big players” on the world’s stage. In this region, the nation’s looking for their own national paradigms, which are often in correlation with the interests of global powers. The beginning of the twenty-first century reflects a significant aspiration of all countries in this part of Europe for development of partnership and allied relations toward of contemporary security risks and threats. Acknowledging the declarations and growing bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the field of security and defense, yet, the questions arises as: Whether states of Southeast Europe identify same security risks and threats? Do they have a unanimous opinion of the potential ways of the vulnerability of critical national infrastructure? Do they share the perception that the security of Southeast Europe are equally nationally as well as common regional issue? The complexity and multifaceted of named questions leads to necessity of a comprehensive approach to the analysis of forms of potential endangering elements of national critical infrastructure which are crucial for security. In addition, particular attention should be paid to unconventional, asymmetric forms of national security jeopardizing and their potential endangering effects on elements of national critical infrastructure. In this paper authors offer the possible overlook of the cross analysis of asymmetrical endangering of national critical infrastructure of Western Balkan countries, as part of SEE. In paper authors use comparative analysis of contemporary approach to the concept of asymmetric security threats, through the prism of particular states perception of endangering forms regarding their national critical infrastructure.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117139546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article reviews major decision-making models with an emphasis on basic theoretical perspectives as well as on how these models explain foreign policy decision making and national and international security decisions. Furthermore, we examine how these models have been utilized in explanations of various international crises. Specifically, for each model, we present examples drawn from the literature on applications of the respective model to foreign policy and national security decisions. The theories we have reviewed are as follows: rational choice, cybernetic model, prospect theory, poliheuristic theory, organizational and bureaucratic politics, groupthink and polythink, and analogical reasoning. We also review the Applied Decision Analysis method, and the concept of biases in decision making.
{"title":"Policy Perspectives on National Security and Foreign Policy Decision Making","authors":"Steven B. Redd, A. Mintz","doi":"10.1111/PSJ.12010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/PSJ.12010","url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews major decision-making models with an emphasis on basic theoretical perspectives as well as on how these models explain foreign policy decision making and national and international security decisions. Furthermore, we examine how these models have been utilized in explanations of various international crises. Specifically, for each model, we present examples drawn from the literature on applications of the respective model to foreign policy and national security decisions. The theories we have reviewed are as follows: rational choice, cybernetic model, prospect theory, poliheuristic theory, organizational and bureaucratic politics, groupthink and polythink, and analogical reasoning. We also review the Applied Decision Analysis method, and the concept of biases in decision making.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116648707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sovereign bond issuance by emerging market countries is growing in both volume and frequency. The global credit rating agencies have eagerly assigned ratings to the new issuers. Traditional approaches to measuring country risk, however, may fall short when applied to developing economies. What works for Canada and Switzerland may not be applicable to perennial newsmakers like Iraq and Pakistan, both of which have issued US dollar bonds in recent years. This paper will suggest a new way to think about the spectrum of investment risks expressed by these bond market newcomers. Specifically, it is proposed that all sovereign defaults have their origins in the vulnerabilities that fall under the amorphous human security rubric. A government’s decision to suspend interest payments on internationally traded bonds is entirely political, and is always made with reference to a complex of internal non-military challenges. The paper will explore through case studies whether the human security weaknesses of emerging market countries are expressed in the trading of the US dollar bonds of those nations. It follows then, that payment suspensions by beleaguered governments might also be traced to upstream breakdowns in food and water security, health care access, democratic processes and other core human needs.
{"title":"Human Security as a Measure of Country Risk in the Assessment of Emerging Market Bonds","authors":"Allan Dwyer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2240527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2240527","url":null,"abstract":"Sovereign bond issuance by emerging market countries is growing in both volume and frequency. The global credit rating agencies have eagerly assigned ratings to the new issuers. Traditional approaches to measuring country risk, however, may fall short when applied to developing economies. What works for Canada and Switzerland may not be applicable to perennial newsmakers like Iraq and Pakistan, both of which have issued US dollar bonds in recent years. This paper will suggest a new way to think about the spectrum of investment risks expressed by these bond market newcomers. Specifically, it is proposed that all sovereign defaults have their origins in the vulnerabilities that fall under the amorphous human security rubric. A government’s decision to suspend interest payments on internationally traded bonds is entirely political, and is always made with reference to a complex of internal non-military challenges. The paper will explore through case studies whether the human security weaknesses of emerging market countries are expressed in the trading of the US dollar bonds of those nations. It follows then, that payment suspensions by beleaguered governments might also be traced to upstream breakdowns in food and water security, health care access, democratic processes and other core human needs.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124539269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
E. Berman, Joseph H. Felter, Jacob N. Shapiro, Erin Troland
Most interpretations of prevalent counterinsurgency theory imply that increasing government services will reduce rebel violence. Empirically, however, development programs and economic activity sometimes yield increased violence. Using new panel data on development spending in Iraq, we show that violence reducing effects of aid are greater when (a) projects are small, (b) troop strength is high, and (c) professional development expertise is available. These findings are consistent with a "hearts and minds" model, which predicts that violence reduction will result when projects are secure, valued by community members, and implementation is conditional on the behavior of non-combatants.
{"title":"Modest, Secure and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones","authors":"E. Berman, Joseph H. Felter, Jacob N. Shapiro, Erin Troland","doi":"10.1257/AER.103.3.512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/AER.103.3.512","url":null,"abstract":"Most interpretations of prevalent counterinsurgency theory imply that increasing government services will reduce rebel violence. Empirically, however, development programs and economic activity sometimes yield increased violence. Using new panel data on development spending in Iraq, we show that violence reducing effects of aid are greater when (a) projects are small, (b) troop strength is high, and (c) professional development expertise is available. These findings are consistent with a \"hearts and minds\" model, which predicts that violence reduction will result when projects are secure, valued by community members, and implementation is conditional on the behavior of non-combatants.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129816075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Employment growth could reduce violence during civil conflicts. To determine if increased employment affects violence we analyzed varying employment in development programs run by different US military divisions in Iraqi districts. Employment levels vary with funding periods and the military division in charge. Controlling for variability between districts, we find that a 10% increase in labor-related spending generates a 15-20% decline in labor-intensive insurgent violence. Overall the 10% spending increase is associated with a nearly 10% violence reduction, due to reduction in attacks which kill civilians, but increased attacks against the military. These findings indicate that labor-intensive development programs can reduce violence during insurgencies.
{"title":"Building Peace: The Impact of Aid on the Labor Market for Insurgents","authors":"R. Plumb, Jonathan Monten, Matthew Hanson","doi":"10.3386/W17297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W17297","url":null,"abstract":"Employment growth could reduce violence during civil conflicts. To determine if increased employment affects violence we analyzed varying employment in development programs run by different US military divisions in Iraqi districts. Employment levels vary with funding periods and the military division in charge. Controlling for variability between districts, we find that a 10% increase in labor-related spending generates a 15-20% decline in labor-intensive insurgent violence. Overall the 10% spending increase is associated with a nearly 10% violence reduction, due to reduction in attacks which kill civilians, but increased attacks against the military. These findings indicate that labor-intensive development programs can reduce violence during insurgencies.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115924169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Past studies on military expenditures in the United States have primarily focused on the extent to which guns versus butter trade-offs are prevalent without examining this relationship in the context of how other fiscal policy tools are used to pay for defense. Using annual data from 1947–2007, this study examines the relative importance of defense financing policy measures, such as guns versus butter trade-offs, tax increases, and deficit spending in paying for defense. The results show evidence of guns versus butter trade-off during the Reagan Era, but not during other periods. Both federal tax policy and deficit spending have played influential roles in funding defense spending during peacetime. This modeling strategy points to the importance of analyzing the effects of multiple fiscal policy tools when studying the forces that drive military spending in the United States since World War II.
{"title":"Who Pays for National Defense? Financing Defense Programs in the United States, 1947-2007","authors":"U. Heo, J. Bohte","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1774924","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1774924","url":null,"abstract":"Past studies on military expenditures in the United States have primarily focused on the extent to which guns versus butter trade-offs are prevalent without examining this relationship in the context of how other fiscal policy tools are used to pay for defense. Using annual data from 1947–2007, this study examines the relative importance of defense financing policy measures, such as guns versus butter trade-offs, tax increases, and deficit spending in paying for defense. The results show evidence of guns versus butter trade-off during the Reagan Era, but not during other periods. Both federal tax policy and deficit spending have played influential roles in funding defense spending during peacetime. This modeling strategy points to the importance of analyzing the effects of multiple fiscal policy tools when studying the forces that drive military spending in the United States since World War II.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114191535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Burke, J. Dykema, D. Lobell, E. Miguel, S. Satyanath
A recent paper by Burke et al. (henceforth "we") finds a strong historical relationship between warmer- than-average temperatures and the incidence of civil war in Africa (Burke et al. 2009). These findings have recently been challenged by Buhaug (2010) who finds fault with how we controlled for other potential explanatory variables, how we coded civil wars, and with our choice of historical time period and climate dataset. We demonstrate that Buhaug's proposed method of controlling for confounding variables has serious econometric shortcomings and show that our original findings are robust to the use of different climate data and to alternate codings of major war. Using Buhaug's preferred climate data under sound econometric assumptions yields results that suggest an even stronger relationship between temperature and conflict for the 1981-2002 period than we originally reported. We do find that our historical relationship between temperature and conflict weakens over the last decade, a period of unprecedented African economic growth and very few large wars.
{"title":"Climate and Civil War: Is the Relationship Robust?","authors":"M. Burke, J. Dykema, D. Lobell, E. Miguel, S. Satyanath","doi":"10.3386/W16440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W16440","url":null,"abstract":"A recent paper by Burke et al. (henceforth \"we\") finds a strong historical relationship between warmer- than-average temperatures and the incidence of civil war in Africa (Burke et al. 2009). These findings have recently been challenged by Buhaug (2010) who finds fault with how we controlled for other potential explanatory variables, how we coded civil wars, and with our choice of historical time period and climate dataset. We demonstrate that Buhaug's proposed method of controlling for confounding variables has serious econometric shortcomings and show that our original findings are robust to the use of different climate data and to alternate codings of major war. Using Buhaug's preferred climate data under sound econometric assumptions yields results that suggest an even stronger relationship between temperature and conflict for the 1981-2002 period than we originally reported. We do find that our historical relationship between temperature and conflict weakens over the last decade, a period of unprecedented African economic growth and very few large wars.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"88 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128797648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Obama Administration’s unprecedented retention of Bush Secretary of Defense Robert Gates paved the way for dramatic cuts to defense programs in the first few months of the Administration. This paper analyzes the process of developing and presenting the revised defense budget for Fiscal Year 2010. Following the approach of Eugene Bardach, as elaborated by Michael Barzelay, it develops an extrapolation-oriented case study of this episode, identifying the process context factors and process design features that activated or impeded causal mechanisms influential in this case. Consistent with Bardach’s “craftsmanship” approach, the paper closes with reflections on lessons learned from the case for application elsewhere.
{"title":"Defense in Hard Times: Budget Pressure, High Demand, and Defense Transformation in the Obama Administration","authors":"Tim Came, Colin Campbell","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1662028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1662028","url":null,"abstract":"The Obama Administration’s unprecedented retention of Bush Secretary of Defense Robert Gates paved the way for dramatic cuts to defense programs in the first few months of the Administration. This paper analyzes the process of developing and presenting the revised defense budget for Fiscal Year 2010. Following the approach of Eugene Bardach, as elaborated by Michael Barzelay, it develops an extrapolation-oriented case study of this episode, identifying the process context factors and process design features that activated or impeded causal mechanisms influential in this case. Consistent with Bardach’s “craftsmanship” approach, the paper closes with reflections on lessons learned from the case for application elsewhere.","PeriodicalId":224499,"journal":{"name":"ERN: National Security & War (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130072754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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