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What drives public trust in the military in non-democracies: Evidence from Libya (2014-2019) 在非民主国家,是什么推动了公众对军队的信任:来自利比亚的证据(2014-2019)
Pub Date : 2023-05-14 DOI: 10.1080/13629387.2023.2203469
Yasmina Abouzzohour, Tarik M. Yousef
ABSTRACT This article investigates the conditions that lead to heightened trust in the military in non-democracies through an empirical study of post-2011 Libya. Drawing on the political science and sociology literatures on institutional trust in non-democratic contexts, we develop hypotheses linking public trust in the military to personal safety, political interest, Islamist orientation, trust in institutions, regionalism, and support for democracy. Using survey data collected by the Arab Barometer between 2014 and 2019, we empirically test these hypotheses. Our findings reveal a confluence of factors driving trust in the military in Libya, including regional, generational, educational, and class divides. Being older, male, and from the East contribute positively to trust in the military as well as perceived personal safety, trust in government, interest in politics, and support for democracy. On the other hand, an Islamist orientation, education and income are negatively correlated. These results allow us to speculate about the drivers of trust in the military. In particular, the positive impact of personal safety and support for democracy could reflect the public's perception of the army as responsible for ensuring safety and protecting a nation in turmoil. The role of interest in politics could be attributed to the charged context of politics and security after the 2014 elections. Notably, regional exceptionalism in the East could be related to the role and behaviour of the eastern-based, self-proclaimed Libyan National Army. Our paper contributes to the limited empirical research on trust in the military in non-democracies, backsliding in conflict countries, and political attitudes in Libya.
本文通过对2011年后利比亚的实证研究,探讨了导致非民主国家对军队信任增强的条件。借鉴非民主背景下制度信任的政治学和社会学文献,我们提出了将公众对军队的信任与个人安全、政治利益、伊斯兰主义取向、制度信任、地区主义和对民主的支持联系起来的假设。利用2014年至2019年阿拉伯晴雨表收集的调查数据,我们对这些假设进行了实证检验。我们的研究结果揭示了推动对利比亚军队信任的一系列因素,包括地区、代际、教育和阶级差异。年长、男性和来自东方的人对军队、个人安全、政府信任、对政治的兴趣和对民主的支持都有积极的贡献。另一方面,伊斯兰主义取向、教育和收入呈负相关。这些结果使我们能够推测对军队信任的驱动因素。特别是对人身安全和支持民主主义的积极影响,可以反映出公众对军队负责确保安全和保护动荡国家的看法。对政治感兴趣的作用可以归因于2014年大选后紧张的政治和安全环境。值得注意的是,东部地区的例外主义可能与东部自封的利比亚国民军的角色和行为有关。我们的论文有助于对非民主国家对军队的信任、冲突国家的倒退和利比亚的政治态度进行有限的实证研究。
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引用次数: 0
Morocco’s domestic crisis of (derailed) democratisation 摩洛哥国内(脱轨的)民主化危机
Pub Date : 2023-05-14 DOI: 10.1080/13629387.2023.2207229
S. Colombo
ABSTRACT In the North African context, Morocco is a clear example of democratic backsliding. Since popular protests broke out in 2011, institutional reforms were implemented under the leadership of the monarchy, leading the Moroccan polity to change without altering its defining features. The previous decade had indeed seen Morocco trailing a thin line between social moderation and repression and between political openings and counter-revolution. Between 2011 and 2022 the process of democratic backsliding accelerated, thus turning Morocco into a ‘hybrid regime'. By tracing continuities and changes in the past decade mainly at the political and institutional levels, this article explores the pattern of democratic backsliding undertaken by Morocco by empirically contextualising it within the deterioration of the main features of citizenship understood according to the categorisation introduced by Marshall and Bottomore (1987) that distinguishes between civic, political and social rights. To explain this pattern, the article argues that external factors linked to the deterioration of the regional context (the conflict with Algeria over the Western Sahara and the spill-over of Libyan instability) as well as the rising tensions with the European Union (EU) have not only underpinned Morocco’s geopolitical reorientation but also sustained its domestic crisis of (unfinished) democratisation.
在北非的背景下,摩洛哥是民主倒退的一个明显例子。自2011年爆发民众抗议活动以来,在君主制的领导下实施了制度改革,导致摩洛哥政体在没有改变其特征的情况下发生了变化。在过去的十年中,摩洛哥确实在社会温和与镇压、政治开放与反革命之间徘徊。2011年至2022年间,民主倒退的进程加速,从而将摩洛哥变成了一个“混合政权”。通过追踪过去十年主要在政治和制度层面的连续性和变化,本文探索了摩洛哥民主倒退的模式,根据马歇尔(Marshall)和波顿多雷(Bottomore)(1987)提出的区分公民权利、政治权利和社会权利的分类,将摩洛哥民主倒退置于公民主要特征恶化的经验背景中。为了解释这种模式,文章认为,与地区环境恶化有关的外部因素(与阿尔及利亚在西撒哈拉的冲突,利比亚不稳定的蔓延),以及与欧盟(EU)日益紧张的关系,不仅支撑了摩洛哥的地缘政治重新定位,也维持了其国内(未完成的)民主化危机。
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引用次数: 0
Algeria’s Hirak: fading prospects for democratisation? 阿尔及利亚的Hirak:民主化前景暗淡?
Pub Date : 2023-05-10 DOI: 10.1080/13629387.2023.2207230
Ilhem Rachidi, Abdallah Aballagh
ABSTRACT This article examines democratic backsliding in Algeria through a focus on the Hirak movement, born in 2019. Specifically, it explores government repression and the resulting impact on political action (the use of terrorism charges, the banning of parties, the prosecution of political activists and leaders). To this end, the article will present a ‘timeline’ of repression over the past four years, showcasing relevant numbers and trends that speak to the movement’s activism and responses by the government. The article incorporates primary data collected from the country, including through interlocutor activists who have borne the brunt of government crackdowns. Ultimately, the article seeks to investigate the ways in which Tebboune’s government has made it impossible for a viable opposition force to emerge from the Hirak – The obstacles to democratic progress Some of those who haven't took part in initiatives within the Hirak such as the platform for discussions ‘Nida 22’ or joined groups for the support and the defense of political prisoners.
本文通过关注生于2019年的Hirak运动来审视阿尔及利亚的民主倒退。具体来说,它探讨了政府镇压及其对政治行动的影响(使用恐怖主义指控,禁止政党,起诉政治活动家和领导人)。为此,本文将呈现过去四年镇压的“时间表”,展示相关数字和趋势,说明运动的激进主义和政府的反应。这篇文章包含了从这个国家收集的原始数据,包括通过在政府镇压中首当其冲的对话活动人士收集的数据。最后,这篇文章试图调查Tebboune政府是如何使反对派力量无法从Hirak中出现的-民主进步的障碍一些人没有参加Hirak内部的倡议,例如讨论“Nida 22”的平台或加入支持和保护政治犯的团体。
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引用次数: 0
Crisis of Democratisation in the Maghreb and North Africa 马格里布和北非的民主化危机
Pub Date : 2023-05-08 DOI: 10.1080/13629387.2023.2207225
L. Sadiki, L. Saleh
Democratisation in revolutionary times matters to academia and to our social world. Reflecting on the urgent scholarly need among students of Arab and Middle Eastern politics to address the crisis of democratisation is imperative. A line-up of social scientists comes together to do just that: a focused and in-depth engagement with the problematic of the crisis of democratisation. To this end, the contributors in this Special Issue offer a ‘soft’ theorisation of the crisis of democratisation in the context of the ‘Arab Spring’ and its aftermath. Such an undertaking seeks at once context-focused analysis and sensitivity to the ‘specific’. That is, a set of articles that embraces multivocality of specialism, interpretation, methodology and positionality. We address the problematic by focusing on what qualifies as ‘democratic backsliding,’ alternatively called ‘setbacks,’ ‘regressions,’ etc. This is one means for outlining the anatomy of the Arab region’s own ‘democratisation crisis’ over twelve years after the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings that heralded cascading socio-political changes in the region, Maghreb included. What possible comparative representations can be gleaned from our attempt to deconstruct the Arab democratisation crisis? How are they manifested and experienced empirically and discursively? The articles in this Special Issue attempt to contextualise and analyse this phenomenon through diverse case studies, accounting for the social and political matrices in which democratic backsliding is incubated. In so doing, the contributors collectively bring to the fore both commonalities and particularities of Arab polities that can no longer escape the conundrum of ‘reform or perish’. Against the backdrop of haunting ghosts from authoritarian pasts (presents?), the Special Issue is an attempt to study the crisis of democratisation, a confirmation that despite backsliding the imaginaries and horizons of democratic futures have not dimmed.
革命时期的民主化对学术界和我们的社会都很重要。反思阿拉伯和中东政治学生应对民主化危机的迫切学术需求是当务之急。一群社会科学家聚集在一起,就是为了做到这一点:对民主化危机的问题进行集中而深入的研究。为此,本期特刊的撰稿人在“阿拉伯之春”及其后果的背景下对民主化危机进行了“软”理论化。这样的一项工作既寻求以上下文为中心的分析,又寻求对“具体”的敏感性。也就是说,一系列文章包含了专业性、解释性、方法论和立场性的多元性。我们通过关注什么是“民主倒退”来解决这个问题,或者称为“挫折”、“倒退”等。这是概述阿拉伯地区自身“民主化危机”的一种方法,在“阿拉伯之春”起义预示着该地区(包括马格里布)的社会政治变革的十二年后。从我们解构阿拉伯民主化危机的尝试中可以收集到什么可能的比较代表?它们是如何以经验和论述的方式表现和体验的?本期特刊的文章试图通过不同的案例研究,对这一现象进行背景化和分析,解释孕育民主倒退的社会和政治矩阵。在这样做的过程中,作者们共同将阿拉伯政治的共性和特殊性展现出来,这些共性和特殊性再也无法逃避“要么改革,要么灭亡”的难题。在威权主义过去(现在?)阴魂不散的背景下,这期特刊试图研究民主化的危机,证实尽管倒退,民主未来的想象和视野并未暗淡。
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引用次数: 0
Whatever happened to the Egyptian road to Democracy? 埃及的民主之路到底发生了什么?
Pub Date : 2023-05-08 DOI: 10.1080/13629387.2023.2207231
Shimaa Elsharkawy
ABSTRACT In 2011, Egypt saw one of the largest protest movements in its modern history: the 25th of January revolution. One of its major demands was the call for democracy and end of dictatorship after 30 years of Mubarak’s rule. After ousting Mubarak, the Egyptian public sphere witnessed an openness. Even with increasing levels of oppression and violence, there were open spaces for freedom of association, expression, and demonstration, etc. Yet, in 2013 and with the intense protests against the elected Muslim Brotherhood (MB) president, the military interfered and ousted the elected president. In light of these events, Egypt witnessed a backlash against democracy under the pretext of fighting ‘terrorism’. Since then, Egypt has been seeing manifestations of this relapse on almost all levels, in terms of legislations, decrees, practices that closed the public space to any protesting voices, with higher levels of oppression and violence against the opposition and not only the so-called ‘terrorists’. In this context, this paper proposes to dissect the Egyptian stumbling road to democratisation since 2011. It examines internal factors as well as the role of regional and international actors in orchestrating developments in Egypt. The paper proposes that the process of democratisation in Egypt has faced multiple drawbacks, not only related to regime type (military rule) but also with respect to social movements, the involvement of regional actors, etc..
2011年,埃及发生了现代史上规模最大的抗议运动之一:1月25日革命。其主要诉求之一是呼吁民主,结束穆巴拉克30年的独裁统治。穆巴拉克下台后,埃及的公共领域出现了开放。即使压迫和暴力的程度越来越高,仍然有结社、言论和示威等自由的开放空间。然而,在2013年,随着对穆斯林兄弟会(Muslim Brotherhood)当选总统的激烈抗议,军方干预并推翻了当选总统。鉴于这些事件,埃及目睹了以打击“恐怖主义”为借口对民主的强烈反对。从那时起,埃及几乎在所有层面上都看到了这种复发的表现,包括立法,法令,关闭公共空间的做法,任何抗议声音,对反对派的压迫和暴力程度更高,而不仅仅是所谓的“恐怖分子”。在此背景下,本文建议剖析自2011年以来埃及走向民主化的坎坷之路。它审查了内部因素以及区域和国际行动者在协调埃及发展中的作用。本文提出,埃及的民主化进程面临多重弊端,不仅与政权类型(军事统治)有关,还与社会运动、地区行动者的参与等有关。
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引用次数: 0
L'appel du houdhoud: Une femme au pays des fouqaha 胡德的召唤:福卡哈土地上的一个女人
Pub Date : 2023-05-08 DOI: 10.1080/13629387.2023.2210411
Stuart Schaar
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引用次数: 0
A tale of two exceptions: everyday politics of democratic backsliding in Tunisia 这是一个有两个例外的故事:突尼斯的日常政治民主倒退
Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/13629387.2023.2207226
H. Souilmi
ABSTRACT Why do citizens support democratic backsliding through authoritarian populist power grabs? Tunisia has been upheld as the exception in the Arab World for its successful democratization. However, since the declaration of the state of exception by President Kais Said, Tunisia has witnessed deliberate acts of democratic subversion. Polls have been showing overwhelming support for the president despite his actions. Ethnographic evidence in the rural community of Vaga where the “yes” vote for the referendum was 80%, shows that emotional voting, illiberal values, and the paradox of nostalgia and fear can explain the support for Kais Said and his executive aggrandizement efforts. However, the approval is conditional and contested. Citizens in Vaga have not given up on critical democratic practices and democracy.
为什么公民支持通过威权民粹主义攫取权力而导致民主倒退?突尼斯成功地实现了民主化,被认为是阿拉伯世界的例外。然而,自从凯斯·赛义德总统宣布例外状态以来,突尼斯目睹了蓄意颠覆民主的行为。尽管总统采取了行动,但民意调查显示他获得了压倒性的支持。Vaga乡村社区的人种学证据表明,情绪性投票、不自由的价值观以及怀旧和恐惧的悖论可以解释对Kais Said和他的行政强化努力的支持。然而,批准是有条件的,而且存在争议。瓦加的公民没有放弃批判的民主做法和民主。
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引用次数: 0
Egypt after the 2011 uprising: the implications of transitional justice in a non-liberal transition 2011年起义后的埃及:非自由转型中过渡正义的含义
Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/13629387.2023.2208038
Bosmat Yefet
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引用次数: 0
Resistance is life: how Sudan’s resistance committees perform democratic power 抵抗就是生命:苏丹抵抗委员会如何行使民主权力
Pub Date : 2023-04-27 DOI: 10.1080/13629387.2023.2207228
L. Bishai
ABSTRACT While they were critical to the 2019 protests that brought down former president Omar el-Bashir, Sudan’s young people were not fully present in the negotiations for the transitional constitutional document that formed the post-Bashir civilian government. After the coup of late 2021, however, they stepped forward again to organize continual non-violent protests that maintained pressure on military leaders and kept Sudan in the news. This article will use interviews with Sudanese activists and resistance committee members, as well as contemporary reports, to explore how Sudan’s youth arranged themselves into self-governing community organizations – Resistance Committees – that have become centers of power for resisting the authority of the military junta. I explore the notion that these hyperlocal groups are already implementing a series of democratic practices and ask whether they can contest the force-based sovereignty of the authoritarian regime to provide a sustainable, and recognizable, form of democratic governance for Sudan.
尽管苏丹年轻人在2019年导致前总统奥马尔·巴希尔下台的抗议活动中发挥了关键作用,但他们并没有完全参与组建后巴希尔文职政府的过渡宪法文件的谈判。然而,在2021年底的政变之后,他们再次挺身而出,组织了持续的非暴力抗议活动,对军事领导人施加了压力,并使苏丹成为新闻焦点。本文将使用对苏丹活动人士和抵抗委员会成员的访谈,以及当代的报导,来探讨苏丹青年如何组成自治社区组织——抵抗委员会——成为抵抗军政府权威的权力中心。我探讨了这些超地方团体已经在实施一系列民主实践的概念,并询问他们是否可以挑战专制政权的以武力为基础的主权,为苏丹提供一种可持续的、可识别的民主治理形式。
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引用次数: 0
A resurgence of authoritarianism in Morocco, or preservation of the status quo 专制主义在摩洛哥死灰复燃,还是维持现状
Pub Date : 2023-04-23 DOI: 10.1080/13629387.2023.2203470
Aisha Kadaoui
ABSTRACT This essay investigates the rise of authoritarianism in Morocco and its resurgence despite several reforms implemented by the Moroccan regime. The author provides a new perspective on democracy and democratic transformation whilst also considering the political regime's particularities, such as the constitutional imprints, the political configuration, and cultural history. The research questions are addressed with a focus on the 2011 constitutional reform. We will offer an original perspective on democracy and democratisation in Morocco, considering the fact that the latter is employed as a vast political framework for demonstrating international conformity and, legitimising authority and institutions. This essay investigates the resurgence of authoritarianism in Morocco despite the several reforms implemented by the Moroccan regime since the independence of the country in 1956.
本文调查了摩洛哥威权主义的兴起及其在摩洛哥政权实施了几项改革后的复苏。作者对民主和民主转型提供了一个新的视角,同时也考虑了政治制度的特殊性,如宪法印记、政治结构和文化历史。研究问题以2011年的宪法改革为重点。我们将对摩洛哥的民主和民主化提供一个原创的观点,考虑到后者被用作展示国际一致性和使权威和机构合法化的巨大政治框架。本文调查了自1956年国家独立以来,尽管摩洛哥政权实施了几项改革,但摩洛哥专制主义的复苏。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Journal of North African Studies
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