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Modeling and forecasting listed tourism firms’ risk in China using a trend asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model 基于趋势不对称GARCH-MIDAS模型的中国旅游上市公司风险建模与预测
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231207671
Peng Yang, Haiyan Song, Long Wen, Han Liu
This study employs the multivariate trend asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS (TAGM) model, an extension of the GARCH-MIDAS model, to explore the potential asymmetric impact of uncertainty shocks, including oil and infectious disease shocks, on the long-term volatility of China’s listed tourism firms. Furthermore, we test the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of uncertainty shocks to China’s listed tourism firms’ risk, which is measured by the volatility of tourism stocks after the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The results show that uncertainty shocks have a significant asymmetric effect on the long-run volatility of tourism stocks. The included uncertainty shocks improved accuracy in forecasting China’s listed tourism firms’ risk after the pandemic outbreak. The empirical results have important implications for tourism investment strategies in unstable environments.
本文采用多元趋势非对称GARCH-MIDAS (TAGM)模型,对GARCH-MIDAS模型进行扩展,探讨石油、传染病等不确定性冲击对中国旅游上市公司长期波动的潜在非对称影响。此外,我们以2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)爆发后旅游类股票的波动率衡量不确定性冲击对中国旅游上市公司风险的样本外预测准确性。结果表明,不确定性冲击对旅游股票的长期波动具有显著的非对称效应。纳入的不确定性冲击提高了疫情爆发后中国旅游上市公司风险预测的准确性。实证结果对不稳定环境下的旅游投资策略具有重要的启示意义。
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引用次数: 0
Towards a risk-adjusted tourism and travel competitiveness index 朝着风险调整旅游和旅游竞争力指数
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231207665
Juan Antonio Duro, Melchor Fernández-Fernández, Alejandro Pérez-Laborda, Jaume Rosselló-Nadal
The concept of Tourism Destinations Competitiveness has evolved from a price-focused perspective to the consideration of multiple factors including sustainability, residents’ well-being, or destination image. Regardless of the version used, it is expected that a competitive destination should be able to convert its advantageous position into economic returns. However, the pandemic has come to upset the foundations of the sector, since many of the destinations traditionally classified as highly competitive have also been the most affected by the pandemic. In this paper, we propose to review the notion of competitiveness by considering properly the dimension of inherent risk, using specific composite indexes, and adjusting conventional competitiveness indicators including these dimensions. We revise the results of these new adjusted by risk competitiveness indexes for the organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) and OECD partner countries. Among other relevant points, the findings indicate relevant changes in rankings when we explicitly include risk in the competitiveness calculations.
旅游目的地竞争力的概念已经从以价格为中心的角度发展到考虑可持续性、居民福祉或目的地形象等多种因素。无论使用何种版本,预期具有竞争力的目的地应该能够将其优势地位转化为经济回报。然而,大流行已经动摇了该部门的基础,因为许多传统上被列为高度竞争的目的地也受到大流行的影响最大。在本文中,我们建议通过适当考虑内在风险维度,使用特定的综合指数,并调整包括这些维度在内的传统竞争力指标来重新审视竞争力的概念。我们根据经济合作与发展组织(OECD)及其伙伴国的风险竞争力指数对这些新结果进行了修正。在其他相关点中,研究结果表明,当我们明确地将风险纳入竞争力计算时,排名会发生相关变化。
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引用次数: 0
Can digital economy improve tourism economic resilience? Evidence from China 数字经济能否提高旅游经济韧性?来自中国的证据
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231206241
Rui Tang
The digital economy has become an important driver of resilient growth in tourism economy. Taking China as the research object, it is found that the digital economy not only has a positive spatial spillover effect on tourism economic resilience but also mitigates the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The heterogeneity test shows that the digital economy has a spatial diffusion effect on tourism economic resilience in the eastern, western, and southern regions and a spatial siphoning effect on the non-pilot areas of the National Smart Tourism Pilot Policy. The result of influence mechanism test proves that the digital economy can contribute to the tourism economic resilience by stimulating tourism fiscal expenditure, guiding tourism industry cluster, and increasing tourism consumption. The findings of the study have important policy implications for China and other countries around the world in using the digital economy to promote sustainable tourism development.
数字经济已成为旅游经济韧性增长的重要动力。以中国为研究对象,发现数字经济不仅对旅游经济韧性具有正向的空间溢出效应,还能缓解新冠肺炎疫情的负面影响。异质性检验表明,数字经济对东部、西部和南部地区的旅游经济弹性具有空间扩散效应,对国家智慧旅游试点地区的非试点地区具有空间虹吸效应。影响机制检验的结果证明,数字经济通过刺激旅游财政支出、引导旅游产业集群、增加旅游消费等方式对旅游经济弹性有促进作用。研究结果对中国和世界其他国家利用数字经济促进旅游业可持续发展具有重要的政策意义。
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引用次数: 0
The implications of generative artificial intelligence in academic research and higher education in tourism and hospitality 生成性人工智能对旅游和酒店业学术研究和高等教育的影响
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231204065
Tarik Dogru, Nathana Line, Lydia Hanks, Fulya Acikgoz, Je’Anna Abbott, Selim Bakir, Adiyukh Berbekova, Anil Bilgihan, Ali Iskender, Murat Kizildag, Minwoo Lee, Woojin Lee, Sean McGinley, Makarand Mody, Irem Onder, Ozgur Ozdemir, Courtney Suess
The purpose of this study is to critically review the effect of generative artificial intelligence (GAI) tools on higher education and research in the tourism and hospitality (TH) field. This manuscript identifies capabilities and implications of these GAI applications through a theoretical lens. GAI adoption in TH education can facilitate personalized learning experiences, enhance the technological competence of students, and foster a more diverse and inclusive learning environment. For academic research, GAI-enabled technologies may revolutionize data collection, analysis, and writing in a myriad of ways. However, there are multiple ethical and legal concerns associated with adoption that must be considered. At the end of this paper, we propose ten discussion questions aimed at stimulating conversation about adoption of GAI tools in TH education and research.
本研究的目的是批判性地回顾生成式人工智能(GAI)工具对旅游和酒店(TH)领域的高等教育和研究的影响。本文通过理论视角确定了这些GAI应用程序的功能和含义。在TH教育中采用GAI可以促进个性化的学习体验,提高学生的技术能力,营造更加多元化和包容性的学习环境。对于学术研究,支持ai的技术可能会以各种方式彻底改变数据收集、分析和写作。但是,必须考虑与收养有关的多种道德和法律问题。在本文的最后,我们提出了十个讨论问题,旨在促进关于在TH教育和研究中采用GAI工具的对话。
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引用次数: 0
Economic leakages in tourism: A comprehensive review of theoretical and empirical perspectives 旅游业的经济泄漏:理论与实证视角的综合综述
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-03 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231204648
AV Krishna Chaitanya, Sampada Kumar Swain
Economic leakages in tourism are an under-researched area that requires special emphasis from the tourism academia. Leakages persist in a destination and obstruct the economic development of the region. Though mainstream literature highlighted more about the positive side of tourism development, relatively limited literature discussed about leakages. This study critically examines the existing body of knowledge on economic leakages in tourism destinations in order to ascertain the current status of the research and identify any knowledge gaps. This study thoroughly examined theoretical and empirical data on economic leakages in tourism destinations and identified directions for future research. This study further goes into detail on how crucial leakage mitigation is to establishing resilience and self-sufficiency while rebuilding tourism destinations after the pandemic. Finally, theoretical and practical implications are provided.
旅游经济泄漏是旅游学界研究不足的一个领域。渗漏在一个目的地持续存在,阻碍了区域经济的发展。虽然主流文献更多地强调了旅游发展的积极方面,但相对较少的文献讨论了泄漏。本研究批判性地考察了旅游目的地经济泄漏的现有知识体系,以确定研究的现状并确定任何知识空白。本研究深入分析了旅游目的地经济泄漏的理论和实证数据,并确定了未来研究的方向。本研究进一步详细介绍了在大流行后重建旅游目的地时,减少泄漏对建立复原力和自给自足的重要性。最后,提出了理论和实践意义。
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引用次数: 0
Are destinations reverting to the pre-pandemic “normal”? 目的地恢复到大流行前的“正常”状态了吗?
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231204509
Juan Antonio Duro, António Osório, Alejandro Pérez-Laborda, Jaume Rosselló-Nadal
With three years having elapsed since the pandemic onset, a comprehensive assessment of the adaptation process and its extent becomes crucial. In this research note, we provide evidence in this regard by analyzing the tourism resilience determinants of the Spanish provinces throughout the entire 2020–2022 period. The results show that some determinants have played a time-varying role during shock absorption in 2020, adaptation in 2021, and market recovery in 2022. Although the previous equilibrium has been partially reached, there are still persistent effects that remain in 2022. These include the tourist preferences for natural tourism in front of the urban product or the incomplete recovery of distant markets. These insights provide valuable perspectives on the dynamics of the tourism industry and inform strategies to achieve a complete rebound.
自大流行病爆发以来已经过去了三年,对适应进程及其程度的全面评估变得至关重要。在本研究报告中,我们通过分析西班牙各省在整个2020-2022年期间的旅游弹性决定因素,在这方面提供了证据。结果表明,在2020年的减震、2021年的适应和2022年的市场复苏期间,一些决定因素发挥了时变作用。尽管之前的平衡已经部分达到,但在2022年仍有持续的影响。这包括游客在城市产品面前对自然旅游的偏好或遥远市场的不完全恢复。这些见解为旅游业的动态提供了有价值的视角,并为实现全面反弹提供了战略信息。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying structural asymmetries by jointly estimating tourism expenditure intensity and extensity 通过对旅游消费强度和消费广度的联合估计来识别结构不对称
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231204668
Usamah F Alfarhan, Khaldoon Nusair, Fevzi Okumus, Seyed Rajab Nikhashemi
This article proposes a structural framework for the joint estimation of tourists’ daily personal expenditures (intensity) and length of stay (extensity). We reconceptualize commonly accepted exogeneous determinants of both outcomes into a set of exogenous antecedents pre-existing the travel decision and a set of endogenous mediators that capture the role of market exchange after the travel decision and corresponding choices are made. Findings reveal that the effects of some exogenous factors, such as gender, income, and motives on total spending are fully mediated within the intensity and extensity components, absent of any direct impacts. Other factors, such as nationality, appear not to influence spending due to offsetting mediated effects. As these forces are difficult to discern via reduced-form modeling, the proposed structural framework provides tourism managers with deeper insight into the footprints of established expenditure determinants, potentially improving upon the efficacy of marketing strategies.
本文提出了一个游客日常个人消费(强度)和停留时间(广度)联合估算的结构框架。我们将两种结果的普遍接受的外生决定因素重新定义为一组预先存在于旅行决策的外生前因和一组捕捉旅行决策和相应选择后市场交换作用的内生中介。研究结果表明,性别、收入、动机等外生因素对总支出的影响完全中介于强度和广度成分中,不存在直接影响。其他因素,如国籍,由于抵消中介效应,似乎不会影响支出。由于这些力量很难通过简化形式的建模来辨别,所提出的结构框架为旅游管理者提供了更深入地了解既定支出决定因素的足迹,从而有可能提高营销策略的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the impact of hotel attributes and services on price and revenue: A hedonic pricing model approach with a focus on internal and external segmentation and repeat customers 探索酒店属性和服务对价格和收入的影响:以内部和外部细分和回头客为重点的享乐定价模式方法
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231200373
Aldric Vives, Liudmila Ostrovskaya
Hedonic pricing (HP) models are widely used to capture the price heterogeneity of hotel attributes and complementary services. This study uses a broad-ranging database with information about 11 hotels, located in the same Majorcan (Spain) coastal town, to identify the main attributes, complementary services and guest characteristics that affect hotel pricing, hotel revenue (RevPAR) and repeat stays. The results found that, aside from the main sources of price variability, such as accommodation type, location and season, other hotel attributes/services were found to influence these dependent variables: refurbishments, room type, occupancy level, number of stars, clients’ online ratings and the specific hotel. Attributes/services did not have a homogeneous effect on the three types of models estimated, as some attributes increased prices without increasing RevPAR or number of repeat stays.
享乐定价(Hedonic pricing, HP)模型被广泛用于捕捉酒店属性和互补服务的价格异质性。本研究使用了一个包含11家酒店信息的广泛数据库,这些酒店位于同一个马约卡岛(西班牙)沿海城镇,以确定影响酒店定价、酒店收入(RevPAR)和重复入住的主要属性、补充服务和客人特征。结果发现,除了住宿类型、地点和季节等价格变化的主要来源外,其他酒店属性/服务也会影响这些因变量:装修、房间类型、入住率、星级数、客户在线评分和具体的酒店。属性/服务对三种估计模型的影响并不均匀,因为一些属性增加了价格,但没有增加每间客房收入或重复入住次数。
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引用次数: 0
Windfall money and outbound tourism: A natural experiment from lottery winnings 意外之财和出境游:彩票中奖的自然实验
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231203042
David Boto-García, Alvaro Muñiz-Fernández, Levi Pérez
Income is a relevant factor for explaining outbound tourism demand. However, when working with regional- or country-level data, it is difficult to disentangle the role of income in stimulating tourism travelling from other factors that correlate with greater income levels. This paper exploits a natural experiment from Spanish Christmas Lottery to estimate the causal effect of income shocks on outbound tourism. We leverage the staggered and quasi-random assignment of lottery winnings across Spanish regions to estimate the elasticity of outbound annual trips and expenditure to windfall gains. Using difference-in-differences with the amount of lottery prizes as an indicator of treatment intensity, we show that lottery winnings per capita increase both the annual number of tourism trips and expenditure per capita. This effect operates during the first 2 years following the draw, which is likely explained by bandwagon and income multiplier effects.
收入是解释出境游需求的一个相关因素。然而,在处理区域或国家一级的数据时,很难将收入在刺激旅游方面的作用与与较高收入水平相关的其他因素区分开来。本文利用西班牙圣诞彩票的自然实验来估计收入冲击对出境游的因果效应。我们利用交错和准随机分配跨西班牙地区的彩票奖金来估计出境年度旅行和支出的弹性意外收益。我们使用彩票中奖数量的差异值作为治疗强度的指标,表明人均彩票中奖增加了年旅游次数和人均支出。这种效应在抽签后的头两年起作用,这可能可以用从众效应和收入乘数效应来解释。
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引用次数: 0
Carry-over effects of tourism on traditional activities 旅游业对传统活动的结转效应
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231203148
José F. Perles, Martín Sevilla, Ana B. Ramón-Rodríguez, María Jesús Such, Patricia Aranda
One of the justifications for promoting tourism development is the capacity that it has to generate spillover effects on traditional economic activities. However, the strength of these spillover effects depends, largely, on the complementary or competitive nature of the traditional sector with respect to the resources used by tourism. Using time series analysis techniques, this paper examines the relationship existing between tourism development and the local fisheries sector. The results suggest that fisheries have been benefiting from growth in tourism, not so much in terms of an increase in the volume of catches but rather due to an increase in their value.
促进旅游业发展的理由之一是它对传统经济活动产生溢出效应的能力。然而,这些外溢效应的强度在很大程度上取决于传统部门相对于旅游业所使用的资源的互补性或竞争性。本文利用时间序列分析技术,考察了旅游发展与当地渔业部门之间存在的关系。研究结果表明,渔业一直受益于旅游业的增长,而不是渔获量的增加,而是渔获价值的增加。
{"title":"Carry-over effects of tourism on traditional activities","authors":"José F. Perles, Martín Sevilla, Ana B. Ramón-Rodríguez, María Jesús Such, Patricia Aranda","doi":"10.1177/13548166231203148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166231203148","url":null,"abstract":"One of the justifications for promoting tourism development is the capacity that it has to generate spillover effects on traditional economic activities. However, the strength of these spillover effects depends, largely, on the complementary or competitive nature of the traditional sector with respect to the resources used by tourism. Using time series analysis techniques, this paper examines the relationship existing between tourism development and the local fisheries sector. The results suggest that fisheries have been benefiting from growth in tourism, not so much in terms of an increase in the volume of catches but rather due to an increase in their value.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136130560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Tourism Economics
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