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The decomposition of tourism demand and tourism receipts 旅游需求与旅游收入的分解
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-19 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231202358
Faruk Balli, Hung Do, Hina Uqaili
We examine the effect of the decomposition of tourist demand on tourism receipts. We find that tourists from OECD economies or from countries that have strong trade connections with the host economy tend to spend more money in emerging economies. However, tourists from countries that have sociocultural or geographic linkages, such as sharing the same border, having the same religion or language, or have the same ethnicity as those in the host country, tend to spend less money.
我们考察了旅游需求分解对旅游收入的影响。我们发现,来自经合组织经济体或与东道国经济有密切贸易联系的国家的游客倾向于在新兴经济体花更多的钱。然而,来自具有社会文化或地理联系的国家的游客,例如拥有相同的边界,拥有相同的宗教或语言,或与东道国拥有相同的种族,往往会花费较少的钱。
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引用次数: 0
Balancing short-term gains and long-term success in lodging: The role of customer satisfaction and price in hotel profitability model 平衡住宿的短期收益和长期成功:顾客满意度和价格在酒店盈利模式中的作用
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231199156
Ganna V Demydyuk, Mats Carlbäck
This study examines the relationship between revenue and profit drivers and long-term financial performance in the hotel industry based on 17-years data (2004–2020) of six US hotel chains. The analysis creates, tests, and analyzes a cross-level model that examines the complex endogenous relationships, underlying long-term financial performance of hotels. Specifically, we examine the interaction of room price (ADR) and customer satisfaction (ACSI) within a sales-volume-driver framework that impacts financial performance through profitability, measured at both the operating and accounting levels. This study seeks to advance our understanding of these relationships, their characteristics, and their implications for long-term financial performance in the hotel industry. The findings reveal that customer satisfaction is more important than price in achieving long-term financial success in the hotel industry, whereas room nights sold is significant positive driver of all performance levels.
本研究基于美国六家连锁酒店17年(2004-2020年)的数据,探讨了酒店行业收入和利润驱动因素与长期财务绩效之间的关系。该分析创建、测试并分析了一个跨层模型,该模型检验了酒店长期财务绩效背后的复杂内生关系。具体来说,我们研究了客房价格(ADR)和客户满意度(ACSI)在销量驱动框架内的相互作用,该框架通过在运营和会计层面测量的盈利能力影响财务绩效。本研究旨在增进我们对这些关系、它们的特征以及它们对酒店业长期财务绩效的影响的理解。调查结果显示,在酒店业实现长期财务成功方面,客户满意度比价格更重要,而客房夜销售量是所有业绩水平的显著积极驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling prices and volatilities in the sharing economy 对共享经济中的价格和波动进行建模
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231200932
Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez, Juan M Hernández, Julián Andrada-Félix
This paper examines whether short-term rental listings in the sharing accommodation market take account of market risk in their pricing. To do so, we estimate time-varying market risks, and forecast price changes using daily supply-price time series. The empirical analysis was conducted using daily data for the Canary Islands sharing accommodation market for the period January 2016 to September 2021. The following main results were obtained. First, individual listings face systematic risks that are lower than the average market listing return, but multi-unit hosts are more sensitive to market index variations than single-unit hosts. Second, there is a time-varying but long-range dependence on market risk, indicating a slow reversion to the mean level of volatility. Price changes also reflect negative long-range dependence or anti-persistence. Third, volatility does not affect price adjustments in the market (no evidence of risk-return trade-off) for types of hosts and lodgings. Fourth, models can be used to perform risk management using value-at-risk approaches, and market risks are greater for houses and single-unit hosts in the GBP market. Finally, prices can be predicted in different horizons using long-range dependence models.
本文考察了共享住宿市场的短期租赁清单在定价时是否考虑了市场风险。为此,我们估计时变的市场风险,并使用每日供应价格时间序列预测价格变化。实证分析是使用2016年1月至2021年9月期间加那利群岛共享住宿市场的每日数据进行的。得到了以下主要结果。首先,个体上市面临的系统性风险低于市场平均上市收益,但多台主机对市场指数变化的敏感性高于单台主机。其次,对市场风险存在时变但长期的依赖,这表明波动性缓慢地回归到平均水平。价格变化也反映了负的长期依赖性或反持久性。第三,对于不同类型的房东和住宿,波动性不会影响市场的价格调整(没有证据表明存在风险回报权衡)。第四,模型可用于使用风险价值方法进行风险管理,而英镑市场中的房屋和单单元主机的市场风险更大。最后,可以使用长期依赖模型在不同的范围内预测价格。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond accuracy: The advantages of the k-nearest neighbor algorithm for hotel revenue management forecasting 超越准确性:最近邻算法在酒店收益管理预测中的优势
3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231201199
Timothy Webb, Misuk Lee, Zvi Schwartz, Ira Vouk
Revenue management (RM) systems forecast demand and optimize prices to maximize a hotel’s revenue. The RM function operates in coordination between a system and an analyst. Systems provide recommendations while analysts review the forecasts and prices to approve or make subjective adjustments. In many cases the recommendations are a “black box” with little insight regarding how recommendations are derived. This article proposes the k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) algorithm as a forecasting approach that can transition the “black box” to a “glass box.” The benefits of the k-NN are discussed in detail and compared with neural networks. The analysis is conducted on 35 hotels in partnership with a leading RM service provider. The results indicate similar performance for both techniques, leading to an important discussion on model evaluation outside of accuracy. In particular, the article discusses some of the unique advantages k-NN provides for the RM discipline.
收益管理(RM)系统预测需求并优化价格以使酒店收益最大化。RM功能在系统和分析人员之间协调工作。系统提供建议,而分析师审查预测和价格,以批准或作出主观调整。在许多情况下,这些建议是一个“黑盒子”,对如何得出这些建议几乎没有什么了解。本文提出了k-最近邻(k-NN)算法作为一种预测方法,可以将“黑盒子”转换为“玻璃盒子”。详细讨论了k-NN的优点,并与神经网络进行了比较。该分析是与一家领先的RM服务提供商合作对35家酒店进行的。结果表明,这两种技术的性能相似,导致了对精度之外的模型评估的重要讨论。特别是,本文讨论了k-NN为RM学科提供的一些独特优势。
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引用次数: 0
The legal aspects of hotel rate parity 酒店价格平价的法律方面
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-11 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231190142
G. Bianchi, Yong Chen
This research note delineates the conflict of hotel rate parity and key clauses of competition laws in both Europe and the U.S. We trace the origin of hotel rate parity to the principle of most favored nation (MFN) in international trade agreements. We show that rate parity challenges two pillars of competition law. Under rate parity agreements, it is travel intermediaries—not hotels—that demand rate parity, which comes down to the dominance of travel intermediaries over small and independent hotels. The courts view MFN status as a hindrance to competition and therefore in violation of competition law. The trend and message in Europe are clear: the clause is most likely to be judged as not complying with EU competition law and its national equivalents. In the U.S. though, a lack of case decisions precludes us from reaching any conclusion about the fate of the MFN clause.
本研究报告描述了欧洲和美国酒店价格平价与竞争法关键条款的冲突。我们将酒店价格平价的起源追溯到国际贸易协议中的最惠国原则。我们表明,利率平价挑战了竞争法的两大支柱。根据价格平价协议,需求价格平价的是旅行中介机构,而不是酒店,这归结为旅行中介机构对小型独立酒店的主导地位。法院认为最惠国待遇妨碍竞争,因此违反了竞争法。欧洲的趋势和信息是明确的:该条款最有可能被判断为不符合欧盟竞争法及其国家对等法律。然而,在美国,由于缺乏案件裁决,我们无法就最惠国待遇条款的命运得出任何结论。
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引用次数: 0
Coordination of complementary tourism supply through a destination card: The pursuit of profitability in the presence of a foreign tour operator 通过目的地卡协调互补的旅游供应:在外国旅游经营者的存在下追求盈利
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-07 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231190424
C. Álvarez-Albelo, J. A. Martínez-González
A destination card has been widely used by destination management organizations to coordinate the complementary tourism supply. Such coordination, which involves pricing a destination card, is challenging when a foreign tour operator is present. Though the literature shows that cooperative pricing between a destination management organization and a tour operator increases total profits, the most advantageous profit sharing for a destination has not been addressed. With a theoretical model of base and add-on products, this paper identifies the arrangement between a public destination management organization and a foreign tour operator that will accrue the highest profits for a destination. It is found that the most profitable option for a destination is a cooperative agreement in which the foreign tour operator is offered the same profits as a price leader under non-cooperation. This result comes from the fact that non-cooperation entails an unstable situation in which the tour operator is not willing to relinquish price leadership. The findings are of practical interest to help achieve economic sustainability in tourism destinations that rely on foreign tour operators and seek to coordinate their complementary tourism supply.
目的地卡已被目的地管理组织广泛用于协调互补的旅游供应。当外国旅行社在场时,这种涉及目的地卡定价的协调是具有挑战性的。尽管文献表明,目的地管理组织和旅行社之间的合作定价会增加总利润,但目的地最有利的利润分享尚未得到解决。通过基础产品和附加产品的理论模型,本文确定了公共目的地管理组织和外国旅行社之间的安排,该安排将为目的地带来最高的利润。研究发现,目的地最有利可图的选择是合作协议,在不合作的情况下,外国旅行社可以获得与价格领导者相同的利润。这一结果源于这样一个事实,即不合作导致了一种不稳定的局面,即旅行社不愿意放弃价格领先地位。这些发现对帮助依赖外国旅游运营商的旅游目的地实现经济可持续性具有实际意义,并寻求协调其互补的旅游供应。
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引用次数: 0
Earnings management practices of the lodging industry: Diverging behaviors of lodging real estate investment trusts and lodging C-corps 住宿业的盈余管理实践:住宿房地产投资信托与住宿C军团的分化行为
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231189142
Jaehee Gim, S. Jang
In an attempt to manage earnings upward, firm managers commonly deviate from normal business activities (i.e., real earnings management) and misrepresent accruals on financial reports (i.e., accrual earnings management). The current study aimed to demonstrate that due to the financial and regulatory uniqueness of lodging real estate investment trusts (REITs), lodging REITs diverge from lodging C-corporations (C-corps) in their earnings management behavior. Specifically, drawing on signaling theory and precautionary motive theory, the current study showed that compared to lodging C-corps, lodging REITs are less likely to engage in accrual earnings management but more actively conduct real earnings management. Furthermore, the deterrent impact of cash holdings on real earnings management using unusually low discretionary expenditures was found to be weaker for lodging REITs than for lodging C-corps. The findings of the current study will enhance stakeholders’ understanding of lodging firms’ earnings management behavior by shedding light on the different business types in the lodging industry.
为了向上管理盈余,企业管理者通常会偏离正常的业务活动(即真实盈余管理),并在财务报告中歪曲应计项目(即应计盈余管理)。本研究旨在证明,由于住宿房地产投资信托(REITs)在财务和监管上的独特性,住宿房地产投资信托与住宿c公司(C-corps)在盈余管理行为上存在差异。具体而言,本研究利用信号理论和预防性动机理论表明,与住宿型C-corps相比,住宿型REITs参与应发生盈余管理的可能性更小,而更积极地进行真实盈余管理。此外,发现现金持有对使用异常低的可自由支配支出的实际盈余管理的威慑作用,对于住宿REITs比住宿C-corps弱。本研究结果将透过对住宿业不同业务类型的分析,增进利益相关者对住宿业盈余管理行为的了解。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test 利用单调性检验测量旅游需求临近预报性能
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/13548166221104291
Han Liu, Yongjing Wang, Haiyan Song, Y. Liu
Tourism demand nowcasting is generally carried out using econometric models that incorporate either macroeconomic variables or search query data as explanatory variables. Nowcasting model accuracy is normally evaluated by traditional loss functions. This study proposes a novel statistical method, the monotonicity test, to assess whether the nowcasting errors obtained from the ordinary least squares, generalised dynamic factor model and generalised dynamic factor model combined with mixed data sampling model are monotonically decreasing when new data on explanatory variables become available, based on the mixed frequency data between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2019. The results of the empirical analysis show that nowcasts generated results based on two data sources combined are superior to that based on a single data source. Compared with traditional loss functions, the monotonicity test leads to a more objective and convincing nowcasting model performance. This study is the first attempt to evaluate tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test.
旅游需求临近预测通常使用计量经济模型进行,这些模型将宏观经济变量或搜索查询数据作为解释变量。临近预报模型的精度通常用传统的损失函数来评价。本文基于2011年1月1日至2019年12月31日的混合频率数据,提出了一种新的统计方法——单调性检验,以评估当有新的解释变量数据可用时,普通最小二乘、广义动态因子模型和广义动态因子模型结合混合数据抽样模型得到的临近预报误差是否单调减小。实证分析结果表明,基于两个数据源组合生成的临近预测结果优于单一数据源生成的临近预测结果。与传统的损失函数相比,单调性检验使临近预报模型的性能更加客观和令人信服。本研究首次尝试使用单调性检验来评估旅游需求临近预测绩效。
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引用次数: 1
Spatial spillovers of tourism activity on housing prices: The case of Croatia 旅游活动对房价的空间溢出效应:以克罗地亚为例
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/13548166221106442
Maruška Vizek, N. Stojčić, Josip Mikulić
The tourism effects on housing prices within cities and regions have been analyzed in the literature, but there is a lack of evidence on the spatial effects of these processes. In areas hit by overtourism, house price hikes have the potential of spillovers to adjacent cities and towns as well as across wider space. Our study widens existing knowledge on the tourism-housing relationship by exploring the existence and extent of spatial spillovers from tourism-intensive cities and towns on housing prices of neighboring areas. A Durbin spatial autoregression panel model is applied on a population of cities and towns from Croatia, one of the small tourism-driven European economies during the 2012–2019 period. Different spatial weight matrices are applied to the model to explore the spatial reach of effects. Our findings, robust to the use of different tourism activity proxies, provide support to the existence of spatial spillover effects. The strongest effects of tourism on housing prices within and between cities come through the conversion of housing stock in rental properties rather than through the increase of private accommodation share in total accommodation capacities. Particularly strong effects are found once full spatial correlation is taken into account.
文献中分析了旅游业对城市和地区房价的影响,但缺乏关于这些过程的空间效应的证据。在受过度旅游影响的地区,房价上涨有可能波及邻近的城镇以及更广阔的空间。我们的研究通过探索旅游密集型城镇对邻近地区房价的空间溢出的存在和程度,拓宽了现有的旅游-住房关系知识。Durbin空间自回归面板模型应用于克罗地亚的城镇人口,克罗地亚是2012-2019年期间由旅游业驱动的欧洲小型经济体之一。将不同的空间权重矩阵应用于模型,以探索效应的空间范围。我们的研究结果对不同旅游活动指标的使用是稳健的,为空间溢出效应的存在提供了支持。旅游业对城市内部和城市之间房价的最大影响来自于出租房地产中住房存量的转换,而不是私人住房在总住房容量中所占份额的增加。一旦考虑到全空间相关性,就会发现特别强的影响。
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引用次数: 3
Airbnb pricing and term structure: A temporal analysis of omitted variable bias and repeat sales method as remedies Airbnb定价与期限结构:省略变量偏差与重复销售方法的时间分析
IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1177/13548166231191551
K. Cheung
Many tourism studies leverage the hedonic price model to gauge tourists’ willingness to pay for diverse attributes of short-term rental properties. However, when this estimation is applied to the temporal analysis, it can be biased if variables varying with time, such as term structure effects in short-term rentals, are omitted. This paper introduces a repeat sales Airbnb ADR (average daily rate) index to track the change in quality-adjusted rentals of Airbnb properties over time in Auckland, New Zealand, while factoring in the term structure. The findings confirm that using repeat sales data from Airbnb listings can significantly mitigate the bias linked to time-varying attributes. Results demonstrate that when the term structure is not considered, the ADR calculated by the hedonic method may be overestimated by 0.2% per day of the tenancy term. The inventive Airbnb ADR repeat sales index enables the assessment of Airbnb rental trends, taking into account changes in the term structure of leases. This new index can potentially enhance Airbnb listings by incorporating the effects of lease term structures.
许多旅游研究利用享乐价格模型来衡量游客为短期租赁物业的不同属性付费的意愿。然而,当这种估计应用于时间分析时,如果忽略随时间变化的变量,如短期租金的期限结构效应,它可能会有偏差。本文引入了重复销售Airbnb ADR(平均每日房价)指数,在考虑期限结构的情况下,跟踪新西兰奥克兰Airbnb物业的质量调整租金随时间的变化。研究结果证实,使用Airbnb房源的重复销售数据可以显著减轻与时变属性相关的偏见。结果表明,在不考虑租期结构的情况下,hedonic方法计算的ADR在租期内每天可能被高估0.2%。考虑到租赁期限结构的变化,创新的Airbnb ADR重复销售指数可以评估Airbnb的租赁趋势。这个新的指数通过纳入租赁期限结构的影响,可能会提高Airbnb的房源数量。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Tourism Economics
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