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Supervised Learning for Arrival Time Estimations in Restaurant Meal Delivery 餐厅送餐到达时间估计的监督学习
Pub Date : 2021-12-07 DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2021.1095
F. D. Hildebrandt, M. Ulmer
Restaurant meal delivery companies have begun to provide customers with meal arrival time estimations to inform the customers’ selection. Accurate estimations increase customer experience, whereas inaccurate estimations may lead to dissatisfaction. Estimating arrival times is a challenging prediction problem because of uncertainty in both delivery and meal preparation process. To account for both processes, we present an offline and online-offline estimation approaches. Our offline method uses supervised learning to map state features directly to expected arrival times. Our online-offline method pairs online simulations with an offline approximation of the delivery vehicles’ routing policy, again achieved via supervised learning. Our computational study shows that both methods perform comparably to a full near-optimal online simulation at a fraction of the computational time. We present an extensive analysis on how arrival time estimation changes the experience for customers, restaurants, and the platform. Our results indicate that accurate arrival times not only raise service perception but also improve the overall delivery system by guiding customer selections, effectively resulting in faster delivery and fresher food.
餐厅送餐公司已经开始为顾客提供送餐时间的估计,以告知顾客的选择。准确的评估增加了客户体验,而不准确的评估可能导致不满意。由于配送和备餐过程的不确定性,估计到达时间是一个具有挑战性的预测问题。为了解释这两个过程,我们提出了离线和在线-离线估计方法。我们的离线方法使用监督学习将状态特征直接映射到预期到达时间。我们的在线-离线方法将在线模拟与投递车辆路线策略的离线近似配对,同样通过监督学习实现。我们的计算研究表明,这两种方法在计算时间的一小部分上都可以与完整的接近最优的在线模拟相媲美。我们对到达时间估计如何改变顾客、餐馆和平台的体验进行了广泛的分析。我们的研究结果表明,准确的到达时间不仅可以提高服务感知,还可以通过引导顾客选择来改善整个配送系统,从而有效地实现更快的配送和更新鲜的食物。
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引用次数: 6
Long-Haul Vehicle Routing and Scheduling with Biomathematical Fatigue Constraints 生物数学疲劳约束下的长途车辆路线与调度
Pub Date : 2021-12-02 DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2021.1089
Jiawei Fu, Liang Ma
Hours of service (HOS) regulations are among the conventional safety constraints that are compiled by long-haul truck drivers. These regulations have been considered in models and algorithms of vehicle routing problems to assign safe schedules to drivers. However, the HOS regulations neglect a few crucial fatigue risk factors and, at times, fail to generate fatigue-reducing schedules. In this study, a set of biomathematical fatigue constraints (BFCs) derived from biomathematical models are considered for a long-haul vehicle routing and scheduling problem. A BFC scheduling algorithm and a BFC-HOS scheduling algorithm have been developed and then embedded within a tabu search heuristic to solve the combined vehicle routing and scheduling problem. All the solution methods have been tested on modified Solomon instances and a real-life instance, and the computational results confirm the advantages of employing a sophisticated and fatigue-reducing scheduling procedure when planning long-haul transportation.
服务时数(居屋)规例是由长途卡车司机编制的传统安全限制之一。在车辆路线问题的模型和算法中考虑了这些规则,以便为驾驶员分配安全时间表。然而,居屋管理条例忽视了一些关键的疲劳风险因素,有时,未能制定减少疲劳的时间表。本文考虑了一组基于生物数学模型的生物数学疲劳约束(BFCs),以解决长途车辆路线和调度问题。提出了一种BFC调度算法和一种BFC- hos调度算法,并将其嵌入禁忌搜索启发式算法中,用于求解车辆路径和调度的组合问题。在改进的Solomon实例和实际实例上对所有求解方法进行了测试,计算结果证实了在长途运输规划中采用复杂且减少疲劳的调度程序的优点。
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引用次数: 2
Departure Time Choice Equilibrium and Tolling Strategies for a Bottleneck with Stochastic Capacity 具有随机通行能力瓶颈的出发时间选择均衡与收费策略
Pub Date : 2021-11-22 DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2021.1039
J. Long, Hai Yang, W. Y. Szeto
This paper develops a bottleneck model in which the capacity of the bottleneck is assumed to be stochastic and follow a general distribution that has a positive upper bound. The user equilibrium principle in terms of mean trip cost is adopted to formulate commuters’ departure time choice in the stochastic bottleneck. We find that there exist five possible equilibrium departure patterns, which depend on both commuters’ unit costs of travel time, schedule delay early and late, and the uncertainty of the stochastic capacity of the bottleneck. All possible equilibrium departure patterns are analytically derived. Both the analytical and numerical results show that increasing the uncertainty of the capacity of the bottleneck leads to an increase of commuters’ individual mean trip cost. In addition, both a time-varying toll scheme and a single-step coarse toll scheme are designed within the proposed stochastic bottleneck model. We provide an analytical method to determine the detailed toll-charging schemes for both toll strategies. The numerical results show that the proposed toll schemes can indeed improve the efficiency of the stochastic bottleneck in terms of decreasing mean total social cost, and the time-varying toll scheme is more efficient than the single-step coarse toll scheme. However, as the uncertainty of the capacity of the bottleneck increases, the efficiency of the time-varying toll scheme decreases, whereas the efficiency of the single-step coarse toll scheme fluctuates slightly.
本文建立了一个瓶颈模型,该模型假定瓶颈的容量是随机的,并遵循具有正上界的一般分布。采用基于平均出行成本的用户均衡原理,对随机瓶颈条件下通勤者的出发时间选择进行了研究。研究发现,存在五种可能的均衡出发模式,这取决于通勤者的单位出行时间成本、早晚延误和瓶颈随机容量的不确定性。所有可能的平衡偏离模式都是解析导出的。分析结果和数值结果都表明,增加瓶颈通行能力的不确定性会导致通勤者个人平均出行成本的增加。此外,在提出的随机瓶颈模型中,设计了时变收费方案和单步粗收费方案。我们提供了一种分析方法来确定两种收费策略的详细收费方案。数值结果表明,从降低平均社会总成本的角度来看,所提出的收费方案确实能提高随机瓶颈的效率,时变收费方案比单步粗收费方案效率更高。但随着瓶颈通行能力的不确定性增大,时变收费方案的效率下降,而单步粗收费方案的效率波动较小。
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引用次数: 8
Routing Optimization with Generalized Consistency Requirements 具有广义一致性要求的路由优化
Pub Date : 2021-11-17 DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2021.1072
Kai Wang, L. Zhen, Jun Xia, Roberto Baldacci, Shuaian Wang
The consistent vehicle routing problem (ConVRP) aims to design synchronized routes on multiple days to serve a group of customers while minimizing the total travel cost. It stipulates that customers should be visited at roughly the same time (time consistency) by several familiar drivers (driver consistency). This paper generalizes the ConVRP for any level of driver consistency and additionally addresses route consistency, which means that each driver can traverse at most a certain proportion of different arcs of routes on planning days, which guarantees route familiarity. To solve this problem, we develop two set partitioning-based formulations, one based on routes and the other based on schedules. We investigate valid lower bounds on the linear relaxations of both of the formulations that are used to derive a subset of columns (routes and schedules); within the subset are columns of an optimal solution for each formulation. We then solve the reduced problem of either one of the formulations to achieve an optimal solution. Numerical results show that our exact method can effectively solve most of the medium-sized ConVRP instances in the literature and can also solve some newly generated instances involving up to 50 customers. Our exact solutions explore some managerial findings with respect to the adoption of consistency measures in practice. First, maintaining reasonably high levels of consistency requirements does not necessarily always lead to a substantial increase in cost. Second, a high level of time consistency can potentially be guaranteed by adopting a high level of driver consistency. Third, maintaining high levels of time consistency and driver consistency may lead to lower levels of route consistency.
一致性车辆路线问题(ConVRP)的目标是设计多天的同步路线,以服务于一组客户,同时使总出行成本最小化。它规定客户应该在大致相同的时间(时间一致性)由几个熟悉的司机(司机一致性)访问。本文将ConVRP推广到任何级别的驾驶员一致性,并增加了路线一致性,即每个驾驶员在规划日最多可以穿越一定比例的不同路线弧线,保证路线熟悉度。为了解决这一问题,我们开发了两组基于分区的公式,一个基于路线,另一个基于时间表。我们研究了用于导出列子集(路线和时间表)的两种公式的线性松弛的有效下界;子集中是每个配方的最优解决方案的列。然后,我们求解任何一个公式的简化问题,以获得最优解。数值结果表明,我们的精确方法可以有效地求解文献中大多数中等规模的ConVRP实例,也可以求解一些新生成的多达50个客户的实例。我们的精确解决方案探讨了在实践中采用一致性措施方面的一些管理发现。首先,保持相当高的一致性需求并不一定总是导致成本的大幅增加。其次,通过采用高水平的驱动程序一致性,可以潜在地保证高水平的时间一致性。第三,保持高水平的时间一致性和驱动程序一致性可能导致较低水平的路由一致性。
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引用次数: 5
Stochastic Last-Mile Delivery with Crowd-Shipping and Mobile Depots 随机最后一英里运输与人群运输和移动仓库
Pub Date : 2021-11-17 DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2021.1088
Kianoush Mousavi, Merve Bodur, M. Roorda
This paper proposes a two-tier last-mile delivery model that optimally selects mobile depot locations in advance of full information about the availability of crowd-shippers and then transfers packages to crowd-shippers for the final shipment to the customers. Uncertainty in crowd-shipper availability is incorporated by modeling the problem as a two-stage stochastic integer program. Enhanced decomposition solution algorithms including branch-and-cut and cut-and-project frameworks are developed. A risk-averse approach is compared against a risk-neutral approach by assessing conditional-value-at-risk. A detailed computational study based on the City of Toronto is conducted. The deterministic version of the model outperforms a capacitated vehicle routing problem on average by 20%. For the stochastic model, decomposition algorithms usually discover near-optimal solutions within two hours for instances up to a size of 30 mobile depot locations, 40 customers, and 120 crowd-shippers. The cut-and-project approach outperforms the branch-and-cut approach by up to 85% in the risk-averse setting in certain instances. The stochastic model provides solutions that are 3.35%–6.08% better than the deterministic model, and the improvements are magnified with increased uncertainty in crowd-shipper availability. A risk-averse approach leads the operator to send more mobile depots or postpone customer deliveries to reduce the risk of high penalties for nondelivery.
本文提出了一种两层最后一英里配送模型,该模型在充分了解人群托运人的可用性之前,最优地选择移动仓库位置,然后将包裹转移给人群托运人,以便最终运送到客户手中。通过将问题建模为两阶段随机整数规划,纳入了人群托运人可用性的不确定性。开发了改进的分解解算法,包括分支-切割和切割-项目框架。通过评估有条件的风险价值,将风险厌恶方法与风险中性方法进行比较。以多伦多市为例进行了详细的计算研究。该模型的确定性版本比有能力车辆路径问题的平均性能高出20%。对于随机模型,分解算法通常在两个小时内发现接近最优的解决方案,例如30个移动仓库位置,40个客户和120个人群运输船。在某些情况下,在规避风险的情况下,切割-项目方法比分支-切割方法的性能高出85%。随机模型提供的解比确定性模型的解好3.35% ~ 6.08%,并且随着人群运输可获得性不确定性的增加,改进效果被放大。规避风险的方法导致运营商派遣更多的移动仓库或推迟客户交付,以降低因未交付而遭受高额罚款的风险。
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引用次数: 19
A Continuous Model for Designing Corridor Systems with Modular Autonomous Vehicles Enabling Station-wise Docking 模块化自动驾驶车辆通道系统的连续模型
Pub Date : 2021-11-12 DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2021.1085
Zhiwei Chen, X. Li, X. Qu
The “asymmetry” between spatiotemporally varying passenger demand and fixed-capacity transportation supply has been a long-standing problem in urban mass transportation (UMT) systems around the world. The emerging modular autonomous vehicle (MAV) technology offers us an opportunity to close the substantial gap between passenger demand and vehicle capacity through station-wise docking and undocking operations. However, there still lacks an appropriate approach that can solve the operational design problem for UMT corridor systems with MAVs efficiently. To bridge this methodological gap, this paper proposes a continuum approximation (CA) model that can offer near-optimal solutions to the operational design for MAV-based transit corridors very efficiently. We investigate the theoretical properties of the optimal solutions to the investigated problem in a certain (yet not uncommon) case. These theoretical properties allow us to estimate the seat demand of each time neighborhood with the arrival demand curves, which recover the “local impact” property of the investigated problem. With the property, a CA model is properly formulated to decompose the original problem into a finite number of subproblems that can be analytically solved. A discretization heuristic is then proposed to convert the analytical solution from the CA model to feasible solutions to the original problem. With two sets of numerical experiments, we show that the proposed CA model can achieve near-optimal solutions (with gaps less than 4% for most cases) to the investigated problem in almost no time (less than 10 ms) for large-scale instances with a wide range of parameter settings (a commercial solver may even not obtain a feasible solution in several hours). The theoretical properties are verified, and managerial insights regarding how input parameters affect system performance are provided through these numerical results. Additionally, results also reveal that, although the CA model does not incorporate vehicle repositioning decisions, the timetabling decisions obtained by solving the CA model can be easily applied to obtain near-optimal repositioning decisions (with gaps less than 5% in most instances) very efficiently (within 10 ms). Thus, the proposed CA model provides a foundation for developing solution approaches for other problems (e.g., MAV repositioning) with more complex system operation constraints whose exact optimal solution can hardly be found with discrete modeling methods.
时空变化的乘客需求与固定容量运输供给之间的“不对称”一直是世界各地城市公共交通系统中存在的一个长期问题。新兴的模块化自动驾驶汽车(MAV)技术为我们提供了一个机会,通过车站智能对接和分离操作,缩小乘客需求和车辆容量之间的巨大差距。然而,目前仍然缺乏一种合适的方法来有效地解决带有MAVs的UMT走廊系统的操作设计问题。为了弥补这种方法上的差距,本文提出了一个连续统近似(CA)模型,该模型可以非常有效地为基于mavv的交通走廊的运营设计提供接近最优的解决方案。我们研究了在特定(但并不罕见)情况下所研究问题的最优解的理论性质。这些理论性质使我们能够用到达需求曲线估计每个时间邻域的座位需求,从而恢复了所研究问题的“局部影响”性质。利用这一性质,适当地建立了CA模型,将原问题分解为有限个可解析求解的子问题。然后提出了一种离散化启发式算法,将CA模型的解析解转化为原问题的可行解。通过两组数值实验,我们表明,对于具有广泛参数设置的大规模实例(商业求解器甚至可能在几个小时内无法获得可行的解决方案),所提出的CA模型可以在几乎没有时间(小于10 ms)的情况下(在大多数情况下差距小于4%)获得所研究问题的接近最优解。理论性质得到验证,并通过这些数值结果提供了关于输入参数如何影响系统性能的管理见解。此外,结果还表明,尽管CA模型不包含车辆重新定位决策,但通过求解CA模型获得的时间表决策可以很容易地应用于获得接近最优的重新定位决策(在大多数情况下差距小于5%),并且非常有效(在10 ms内)。因此,所提出的CA模型为开发具有更复杂系统运行约束的其他问题(例如MAV重新定位)的求解方法提供了基础,这些问题很难用离散建模方法找到精确的最优解。
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引用次数: 10
A Local Search Algorithm for Train Unit Shunting with Service Scheduling 带服务调度的列车分路局部搜索算法
Pub Date : 2021-11-10 DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2021.1090
R. V. D. Broek, H. Hoogeveen, M. Akker, B. Huisman
In this paper we consider the train unit shunting problem extended with service task scheduling. This problem originates from Dutch Railways, which is the main railway operator in the Netherlands. Its urgency stems from the upcoming expansion of the rolling stock fleet needed to handle the ever-increasing number of passengers. The problem consists of matching train units arriving on a shunting yard to departing trains, scheduling service tasks such as cleaning and maintenance on the available resources, and parking the trains on the available tracks such that the shunting yard can operate conflict-free. These different aspects lead to a computationally extremely difficult problem, which combines several well-known NP-hard problems. In this paper, we present the first solution method covering all aspects of the shunting and scheduling problem. We describe a partial order schedule representation that captures the full problem, and we present a local search algorithm that utilizes the partial ordering. The proposed solution method is compared with an existing mixed integer linear program in a computational study on realistic instances provided by Dutch Railways. We show that our local search algorithm is the first method to solve real-world problem instances of the complete shunting and scheduling problem. It even outperforms current algorithms when the train unit shunting problem is considered in isolation, that is, without service tasks. Although our method was developed for the case of the Dutch Railways, it is applicable to any shunting yard or service location, irrespective of its layout, that uses self-propelling train units and that does not have to handle passing trains.
本文研究了带服务任务调度的列车单元调车问题。这个问题源于荷兰铁路公司,它是荷兰主要的铁路运营商。它的紧迫性源于即将到来的机车车队的扩张,需要处理不断增加的乘客数量。该问题包括将到达调车场的列车单元与离开的列车进行匹配,安排可用资源的清洁和维护等服务任务,并将列车停放在可用的轨道上,以使调车场能够无冲突地运行。这些不同的方面导致了一个计算上极其困难的问题,它结合了几个众所周知的np困难问题。在本文中,我们提出了第一种解决方法,涵盖了分流和调度问题的各个方面。我们描述了一个捕获完整问题的偏序调度表示,并提出了一个利用偏序的局部搜索算法。通过对荷兰铁路公司提供的实际算例进行了计算研究,并与已有的混合整数线性规划进行了比较。我们证明了我们的局部搜索算法是解决完全分流和调度问题的实际问题实例的第一种方法。当列车单元调车问题被孤立考虑时,即没有服务任务时,它甚至优于当前的算法。虽然我们的方法是为荷兰铁路开发的,但它适用于任何调车场或服务地点,无论其布局如何,使用自推进列车单元并且不必处理过往列车。
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引用次数: 7
Aircraft Deconfliction via Mathematical Programming: Review and Insights 飞机消除冲突的数学规划:回顾和见解
Pub Date : 2021-11-09 DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2021.1056
Mercedes Pelegrín, C. D’Ambrosio
Computer-aided air traffic management has increasingly attracted the interest of the operations research community. This includes, among other tasks, the design of decision support tools for the detection and resolution of conflict situations during flight. Even if numerous optimization approaches have been proposed, there has been little debate toward homogenization. We synthesize the efforts made by the operations research community in the past few decades to provide mathematical models to aid conflict detection and resolution at a tactical level. Different mathematical representations of aircraft separation conditions are presented in a unifying analysis. The models, which hinge on these conditions, are then revisited, providing insight into their computational performance.
计算机辅助空中交通管理日益引起运筹学界的兴趣。除其他任务外,这包括设计用于探测和解决飞行中冲突情况的决策支持工具。即使提出了许多优化方法,对均匀化也几乎没有争论。我们综合了运筹学团体在过去几十年里所做的努力,提供了数学模型,以帮助在战术层面上发现和解决冲突。在一个统一的分析中,提出了飞机分离条件的不同数学表示。这些模型依赖于这些条件,然后被重新审视,从而深入了解它们的计算性能。
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引用次数: 8
Probabilistic Set Covering Location Problem in Congested Networks 拥塞网络中的概率集覆盖定位问题
Pub Date : 2021-11-09 DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2021.1096
Robert Aboolian, O. Berman, Majidreza Karimi
This paper focuses on designing a facility network, taking into account that the system may be congested. The objective is to minimize the overall fixed and service capacity costs, subject to the constraints that for any demand the disutility from travel and waiting times (measured as the weighted sum of the travel time from a demand to the facility serving that demand and the average waiting time at the facility) cannot exceed a predefined maximum allowed level (measured in units of time). We develop an analytical framework for the problem that determines the optimal set of facilities and assigns each facility a service rate (service capacity). In our setting, the consumers would like to maximize their utility (minimize their disutility) when choosing which facility to patronize. Therefore, the eventual choice of facilities is a user-equilibrium problem, where at equilibrium, consumers do not have any incentive to change their choices. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear mixed-integer program. We show how to linearize the nonlinear constraints and solve instead a mixed-integer linear problem, which can be solved efficiently.
考虑到系统可能出现拥塞的情况,设计了一个设施网络。目标是使总固定容量和服务容量成本最小化,但要受到以下约束:对于任何需求,旅行和等待时间的负效用(以从需求到服务该需求的设施的旅行时间和在该设施的平均等待时间的加权总和来衡量)不能超过预定义的最大允许水平(以时间单位衡量)。我们为这个问题开发了一个分析框架,确定了最优的设施集合,并为每个设施分配了一个服务率(服务能力)。在我们的设置中,消费者希望在选择光顾哪个设施时最大化他们的效用(最小化他们的负效用)。因此,设施的最终选择是一个用户均衡问题,在均衡状态下,消费者没有任何动机去改变他们的选择。该问题被表述为一个非线性混合整数规划。我们展示了如何将非线性约束线性化,而不是求解一个混合整数线性问题,这可以有效地解决。
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引用次数: 1
Cost Allocation for Less-Than-Truckload Collaboration via Shipper Consortium 通过托运人联盟实现少载货合作的成本分配
Pub Date : 2021-11-04 DOI: 10.1287/trsc.2021.1066
Minghui Lai, Xiaoqiang Cai, Nicholas G. Hall
We study the problem of collaborative less-than-truckload (LTL) transportation in the form of a shipper consortium, which is operated by a third-party logistics provider (3PL) through a cross-dock/pooling network. The 3PL has responsibility for planning the combined loads prior to actual shipments, hiring and routing carriers to execute shipping, and allocating the cost to the shippers in the consortium. Shippers receive substantial cost savings from combined truckload shipments. However, achieving consolidation and realizing this benefit requires addressing two essential issues: (i) how to find an approximately optimal consolidation solution in a large network with many freights and (ii) how to determine a fair cost allocation rule among the shippers’ consolidated freights that ensures budget balance while minimally violating coalitional stability. Our work resolves these two issues. We formulate a time-space network flow model of the problem under both incremental and all-unit discount structures of LTL rates and propose a computationally efficient algorithm based on local search heuristics. We model the problem of allocating cost to the shippers as a cooperative game. We decompose and linearize the Lagrangian dual problem by using total unimodularity and concavity. We propose an efficiently computable cost allocation rule from the linearized dual models. The dual rule ensures stable cooperation but may have underallocation equal to a duality gap. To cover the underallocation, we further develop a budget covering procedure and define an [Formula: see text]-core allocation with desirable properties. Through extensive computational experiments, we find that the shipper consortium reduces total shipping costs by more than 40% in most cases; meanwhile, the [Formula: see text]-core allocation is typically in the core for small-scale networks while violating stability by at most 5% for large-scale networks and provides consolidated freights with more than 50% individual cost savings on average.
我们研究了由第三方物流供应商(3PL)通过交叉码头/池化网络,以托运人联盟的形式进行的协作小货车(LTL)运输问题。第三方物流公司负责在实际发货前规划组合负载,雇用和路由承运人来执行运输,并将成本分配给财团中的托运人。托运人从联合卡车运输中获得大量的成本节约。然而,实现合并和实现这一利益需要解决两个基本问题:(i)如何在具有许多货物的大型网络中找到近似最优的合并解决方案;(ii)如何在托运人合并货物之间确定公平的成本分配规则,以确保预算平衡,同时最小限度地违反联盟稳定性。我们的工作解决了这两个问题。我们建立了LTL利率增量和全单位折扣结构下问题的时空网络流模型,并提出了一种基于局部搜索启发式的计算效率高的算法。我们将托运人的成本分配问题建模为合作博弈。利用全单模性和凹性对拉格朗日对偶问题进行了分解和线性化。从线性化的对偶模型出发,提出了一种高效可计算的成本分配规则。二元规则保证了稳定的合作,但可能存在分配不足,即二元差距。为了弥补分配不足,我们进一步开发了一个预算覆盖程序,并定义了一个具有理想属性的核心分配。通过大量的计算实验,我们发现托运人联盟在大多数情况下降低了40%以上的总运输成本;同时,[公式:见文]-核心分配通常在小规模网络的核心,而在大规模网络中最多违反5%的稳定性,并提供合并货运平均节省50%以上的个人成本。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Transp. Sci.
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