The USDA Forest Service is working closely with collaborative stakeholder groups to accelerate the pace and scale of restoration in fire-prone mixed conifer forests of eastern Oregon. Collaboratively planned restoration projects are typically designed to conserve older trees established before fire exclusion policies and other management practices began to alter forest landscapes beginning in the late 1800s. Tools exist for accurately estimating the age of common species including ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, and western larch. There are no existing tools available for aging grand/white fir, although an important objective of many restoration projects in mixed conifer stands is to retain older grand/white fir while removing younger individuals that have infilled into stands in the absence of fire to enhance resilience of stands to future climate and disturbance regimes. This article describes the development of tools to age grand fir on the Malheur National Forest by taking simple field measurements of morphological characteristics. Bark fissure depth, height to live foliage, and diameter at breast height were the strongest noncorrelated tree morphological characteristics associated with tree age. Crown class had no predictive power for estimating tree age. A variety of methods are presented that can estimate the age of grand fir with reasonable accuracy and are appropriate for different management objectives. Additional field testing and continued experimentation with different tree aging methods within an adaptive management framework is recommended. Study Implications: Shade tolerant grand fir has expanded dramatically in mixed conifer stands of eastern Oregon in the absence of frequent fire. Collaboratively designed restoration projects in mixed conifer stands usually call for the removal of younger grand fir while maintaining older grand fir that contribute to stand- and landscape-scale biodiversity. It can be difficult to estimate the age of grand fir based on morphological clues because of highly variable growth forms in this species. However, several easy-to-use grand fir aging tools promise to facilitate restoration by making reasonably accurate estimates of tree age.
{"title":"Development of Tools to Age Grand Fir to Aid in Collaborative Restoration of Federal Lands in Eastern Oregon","authors":"J. D. Johnston, Amanda A. Lindsay","doi":"10.1093/jofore/fvac003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvac003","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The USDA Forest Service is working closely with collaborative stakeholder groups to accelerate the pace and scale of restoration in fire-prone mixed conifer forests of eastern Oregon. Collaboratively planned restoration projects are typically designed to conserve older trees established before fire exclusion policies and other management practices began to alter forest landscapes beginning in the late 1800s. Tools exist for accurately estimating the age of common species including ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, and western larch. There are no existing tools available for aging grand/white fir, although an important objective of many restoration projects in mixed conifer stands is to retain older grand/white fir while removing younger individuals that have infilled into stands in the absence of fire to enhance resilience of stands to future climate and disturbance regimes. This article describes the development of tools to age grand fir on the Malheur National Forest by taking simple field measurements of morphological characteristics. Bark fissure depth, height to live foliage, and diameter at breast height were the strongest noncorrelated tree morphological characteristics associated with tree age. Crown class had no predictive power for estimating tree age. A variety of methods are presented that can estimate the age of grand fir with reasonable accuracy and are appropriate for different management objectives. Additional field testing and continued experimentation with different tree aging methods within an adaptive management framework is recommended.\u0000 Study Implications: Shade tolerant grand fir has expanded dramatically in mixed conifer stands of eastern Oregon in the absence of frequent fire. Collaboratively designed restoration projects in mixed conifer stands usually call for the removal of younger grand fir while maintaining older grand fir that contribute to stand- and landscape-scale biodiversity. It can be difficult to estimate the age of grand fir based on morphological clues because of highly variable growth forms in this species. However, several easy-to-use grand fir aging tools promise to facilitate restoration by making reasonably accurate estimates of tree age.","PeriodicalId":23386,"journal":{"name":"Turkish Journal of Forestry","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85917157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"SAF 2021 Accreditation Committee Actions and Accredited Curricula for 2022","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/jofore/fvab065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab065","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23386,"journal":{"name":"Turkish Journal of Forestry","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83543565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lynne M. Westphal, M. Dockry, L. Kenefic, Sonya S. Sachdeva, Amelia Rhodeland, D. Locke, C. Kern, H. Huber-Stearns, M. Coughlan
We analyzed USDA Forest Service (Forest Service) employment data from 1995 to 2017, by race and ethnicity, gender, as well as race/ethnicity and gender, to assess progress towards the Forest Service’s goal of achieving a multicultural workforce that reflects the US population. We look at the trends by an employee’s level in the Forest Service and by branch of the Forest Service. Our data show an overall decrease in the workforce by 24%, an increase in diversity in Forest Service leadership levels, little change in the percentage of employees in non-White racial/ethnic groups combined, the number of Black employees decreased, and the number of women in lower grades and in the National Forest System Deputy Area decreased. Comparison with the civilian labor force provides additional context. Implications are relevant beyond the Forest Service, including a risk of losing public trust and reduced agency effectiveness if a representative workforce is not achieved. Study Implications: Like other land management agencies, the USDA Forest Service aims for workforce diversity to help meet its mission to serve the American people. Assessing progress toward meeting diversity goals is key and looking at Forest Service employee demographic data over a 22-year period (1995–2017), we find mixed results. The Forest Service workforce has declined in overall numbers and has lost representative diversity in many gender, race, and ethnicity categories. However, some sections of the agency, such as leadership grades and business operation positions, have increased representative diversity. Slow progress in meeting diversity goals may limit the effectiveness of the Forest Service and the public’s trust in the agency (and other public land management agencies), especially if diversity of perspective and thought among employees is not also supported. More work is needed to evaluate why progress toward Forest Service diversity goals has been uneven. In particular, these data do not tell us about how the presence or absence of representative diversity affects the quality of people’s experiences as agency employees, or why people either leave or stay with the agency over time.
{"title":"USDA Forest Service Employee Diversity During a Period of Workforce Contraction","authors":"Lynne M. Westphal, M. Dockry, L. Kenefic, Sonya S. Sachdeva, Amelia Rhodeland, D. Locke, C. Kern, H. Huber-Stearns, M. Coughlan","doi":"10.1093/jofore/fvab071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab071","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We analyzed USDA Forest Service (Forest Service) employment data from 1995 to 2017, by race and ethnicity, gender, as well as race/ethnicity and gender, to assess progress towards the Forest Service’s goal of achieving a multicultural workforce that reflects the US population. We look at the trends by an employee’s level in the Forest Service and by branch of the Forest Service. Our data show an overall decrease in the workforce by 24%, an increase in diversity in Forest Service leadership levels, little change in the percentage of employees in non-White racial/ethnic groups combined, the number of Black employees decreased, and the number of women in lower grades and in the National Forest System Deputy Area decreased. Comparison with the civilian labor force provides additional context. Implications are relevant beyond the Forest Service, including a risk of losing public trust and reduced agency effectiveness if a representative workforce is not achieved.\u0000 Study Implications: Like other land management agencies, the USDA Forest Service aims for workforce diversity to help meet its mission to serve the American people. Assessing progress toward meeting diversity goals is key and looking at Forest Service employee demographic data over a 22-year period (1995–2017), we find mixed results. The Forest Service workforce has declined in overall numbers and has lost representative diversity in many gender, race, and ethnicity categories. However, some sections of the agency, such as leadership grades and business operation positions, have increased representative diversity. Slow progress in meeting diversity goals may limit the effectiveness of the Forest Service and the public’s trust in the agency (and other public land management agencies), especially if diversity of perspective and thought among employees is not also supported. More work is needed to evaluate why progress toward Forest Service diversity goals has been uneven. In particular, these data do not tell us about how the presence or absence of representative diversity affects the quality of people’s experiences as agency employees, or why people either leave or stay with the agency over time.","PeriodicalId":23386,"journal":{"name":"Turkish Journal of Forestry","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80210804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"2021 SAF National Convention Proceedings","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/jofore/fvab078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab078","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23386,"journal":{"name":"Turkish Journal of Forestry","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74760635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Miller, P. L. Winter, José J. Sánchez, D. Peterson, Jordan W. Smith
Climate change is affecting natural resources globally, altering ecosystems that support outdoor recreation. In the western United States, effects such as warming temperatures, increased drought, reduced snowpack, and widespread wildfires will change the outdoor recreation landscape. In this article, we synthesize the state of science regarding the effects of climate change on outdoor recreation in the western US and summarize adaptation options that can reduce the consequences of climate change, considering the adaptive capacities of recreationists and managers. We draw from a series of climate change assessments in which researchers and managers collaborated to understand recreation vulnerability to climate change and develop effective adaptations. We conclude that building climate resilience requires a shift in planning and resource allocation decisions, including (1) longer-term planning timeframes, (2) interdisciplinary teams, and (3) collaboration among agencies, recreation providers, and communities. Study Implications: Outdoor recreation in the western US is changing due to the effects of climate change. Organized by five recreational categories, this study describes the vulnerability of outdoor recreation to climate change and synthesizes strategies to adapt recreation management to these vulnerabilities. Multiple direct and indirect factors influence individual recreationists’ and land managers’ capacities to adapt to climate change, as we describe through a diagram. Climate-resilient land management requires long-term planning, integration of multiple resource areas, and collaboration across agencies, recreation providers, and communities.
{"title":"Climate Change and Recreation in the Western United States: Effects and Opportunities for Adaptation","authors":"A. Miller, P. L. Winter, José J. Sánchez, D. Peterson, Jordan W. Smith","doi":"10.1093/jofore/fvab072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab072","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Climate change is affecting natural resources globally, altering ecosystems that support outdoor recreation. In the western United States, effects such as warming temperatures, increased drought, reduced snowpack, and widespread wildfires will change the outdoor recreation landscape. In this article, we synthesize the state of science regarding the effects of climate change on outdoor recreation in the western US and summarize adaptation options that can reduce the consequences of climate change, considering the adaptive capacities of recreationists and managers. We draw from a series of climate change assessments in which researchers and managers collaborated to understand recreation vulnerability to climate change and develop effective adaptations. We conclude that building climate resilience requires a shift in planning and resource allocation decisions, including (1) longer-term planning timeframes, (2) interdisciplinary teams, and (3) collaboration among agencies, recreation providers, and communities.\u0000 Study Implications: Outdoor recreation in the western US is changing due to the effects of climate change. Organized by five recreational categories, this study describes the vulnerability of outdoor recreation to climate change and synthesizes strategies to adapt recreation management to these vulnerabilities. Multiple direct and indirect factors influence individual recreationists’ and land managers’ capacities to adapt to climate change, as we describe through a diagram. Climate-resilient land management requires long-term planning, integration of multiple resource areas, and collaboration across agencies, recreation providers, and communities.","PeriodicalId":23386,"journal":{"name":"Turkish Journal of Forestry","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86499778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Danny Politoski, Ruth Dittrich, Max Nielsen-Pincus
The frequency of large wildfires in the US has increased over the past few decades, and more communities will need to prepare for the inevitability of wildfire in the future. In this article, we examine the local and regional economic impact of fire suppression and postfire repair spending for the 2017 Oregon Eagle Creek fire. The Eagle Creek fire is unique in that it occurred close to a large metropolitan area, Portland, and along an important transportation corridor, Interstate 84. We found that the proportion of repair spending absorbed by local and regional counties was 85%, whereas 26% of suppression spending was absorbed by local and regional counties. We quantified the wider economic impact of this spending using the input-output model, IMPLAN. Suppression spending created a total economic output of $4 million (initial input $2.4 million) while repair spending created an economic output of $14 million per year over two years (initial input $14.5 million). Study Implications: Our study illustrates local and regional economic impacts to communities from wildfire-related spending as a result of the Eagle Creek fire in Oregon in 2017; counties were positively affected by fire suppression and postfire repair spending as some of this spending circulated through local and regional economies. Repair spending had a much higher local and regional absorption than suppression spending, but we found the multiplier effect to be about the same for both. We also found both repair spending and suppression spending to be highly specialized for the case of the Eagle Creek fire with relative few firms receiving contract funding.
{"title":"Assessing the Absorption and Economic Impact of Suppression and Repair Spending of the 2017 Eagle Creek Fire, Oregon","authors":"Danny Politoski, Ruth Dittrich, Max Nielsen-Pincus","doi":"10.1093/jofore/fvac001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvac001","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The frequency of large wildfires in the US has increased over the past few decades, and more communities will need to prepare for the inevitability of wildfire in the future. In this article, we examine the local and regional economic impact of fire suppression and postfire repair spending for the 2017 Oregon Eagle Creek fire. The Eagle Creek fire is unique in that it occurred close to a large metropolitan area, Portland, and along an important transportation corridor, Interstate 84. We found that the proportion of repair spending absorbed by local and regional counties was 85%, whereas 26% of suppression spending was absorbed by local and regional counties. We quantified the wider economic impact of this spending using the input-output model, IMPLAN. Suppression spending created a total economic output of $4 million (initial input $2.4 million) while repair spending created an economic output of $14 million per year over two years (initial input $14.5 million).\u0000 Study Implications: Our study illustrates local and regional economic impacts to communities from wildfire-related spending as a result of the Eagle Creek fire in Oregon in 2017; counties were positively affected by fire suppression and postfire repair spending as some of this spending circulated through local and regional economies. Repair spending had a much higher local and regional absorption than suppression spending, but we found the multiplier effect to be about the same for both. We also found both repair spending and suppression spending to be highly specialized for the case of the Eagle Creek fire with relative few firms receiving contract funding.","PeriodicalId":23386,"journal":{"name":"Turkish Journal of Forestry","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82990709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Curtze, Allyson B. Muth, Jeffery L. Larkin, L. Leites
Numerous forests in the eastern United States have been degraded due to past exploitative timber harvesting known as high grading. High graded forest stands may not improve without active rehabilitation and may require targeted silvicultural treatments. This study focuses on high graded mixed-oak (mixed-Quercus spp.) stands and aims to develop a model that can identify past high grading and to determine modifications that may improve forest management recommendations provided by the prominent decision support tool, SILVAH. We present a model that uses standard forest inventory measurements and does not require knowledge of preharvest stand conditions to predict with moderate to high accuracy whether a stand was high graded, which could be particularly useful for nonindustrial private forests. Results indicate that modifications to SILVAH may be necessary to improve its utility for prescribing silvicultural treatments in high graded stands. Study Implications: High graded forest stands are often not readily apparent and likely require specific forest management practices. We present a tool that uses standard forest inventory measurements to predict past high grading, which can be used to inform and prioritize forest management decisions. We also present suggested modifications to the prominent decision support tool, SILVAH, that may improve its ability to prescribe optimal silvicultural treatments for high graded stands. Results from this study provide forestry professionals/landowners working in the mixed-oak forests of the northeastern United States with tools to inform forest management decisions that aim to return degraded stands to healthier and more productive states.
{"title":"Decision Support Tools to Inform the Rehabilitation and Management of High Graded Forests","authors":"A. Curtze, Allyson B. Muth, Jeffery L. Larkin, L. Leites","doi":"10.1093/jofore/fvab077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab077","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Numerous forests in the eastern United States have been degraded due to past exploitative timber harvesting known as high grading. High graded forest stands may not improve without active rehabilitation and may require targeted silvicultural treatments. This study focuses on high graded mixed-oak (mixed-Quercus spp.) stands and aims to develop a model that can identify past high grading and to determine modifications that may improve forest management recommendations provided by the prominent decision support tool, SILVAH. We present a model that uses standard forest inventory measurements and does not require knowledge of preharvest stand conditions to predict with moderate to high accuracy whether a stand was high graded, which could be particularly useful for nonindustrial private forests. Results indicate that modifications to SILVAH may be necessary to improve its utility for prescribing silvicultural treatments in high graded stands.\u0000 Study Implications: High graded forest stands are often not readily apparent and likely require specific forest management practices. We present a tool that uses standard forest inventory measurements to predict past high grading, which can be used to inform and prioritize forest management decisions. We also present suggested modifications to the prominent decision support tool, SILVAH, that may improve its ability to prescribe optimal silvicultural treatments for high graded stands. Results from this study provide forestry professionals/landowners working in the mixed-oak forests of the northeastern United States with tools to inform forest management decisions that aim to return degraded stands to healthier and more productive states.","PeriodicalId":23386,"journal":{"name":"Turkish Journal of Forestry","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90326155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Madeleine L. Desrochers, Wayne Tripp, Stephen R. Logan, E. Bevilacqua, L. Johnson, C. Beier
The need for reliable landscape-scale monitoring of forest disturbance has grown with increased policy and regulatory attention to promoting the climate benefits of forests. Change detection algorithms based on satellite imagery can address this need but are largely untested for the forest types and disturbance regimes of the US Northeast, including management practices common in northern hardwoods and mixed hardwood-conifer forests. This study ground-truthed the “off-the-shelf” outputs of three satellite-based change detection algorithms using detailed harvest records and maps covering 43,000 ha of working forests in northeastern New York. Study Implications: Algorithms performed best in detecting clearcuts, but performed much worse and poorly overall in detecting the partial harvest prescriptions (e.g., shelterwoods, thinnings) that were far more common in our ground-truthing data (and for this region). Among the algorithms tested, Landtrendr was consistently superior at both detecting partial harvests and estimating harvest intensity (volume removals), but there still remained substantial room for improvement. Overall, we suggest that these algorithms need further training and tuning to be reliably used for accurate monitoring of harvest-related activities in working forests of the US Northeast.
{"title":"Ground-Truthing Forest Change Detection Algorithms in Working Forests of the US Northeast","authors":"Madeleine L. Desrochers, Wayne Tripp, Stephen R. Logan, E. Bevilacqua, L. Johnson, C. Beier","doi":"10.1093/jofore/fvab075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab075","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The need for reliable landscape-scale monitoring of forest disturbance has grown with increased policy and regulatory attention to promoting the climate benefits of forests. Change detection algorithms based on satellite imagery can address this need but are largely untested for the forest types and disturbance regimes of the US Northeast, including management practices common in northern hardwoods and mixed hardwood-conifer forests. This study ground-truthed the “off-the-shelf” outputs of three satellite-based change detection algorithms using detailed harvest records and maps covering 43,000 ha of working forests in northeastern New York.\u0000 Study Implications: Algorithms performed best in detecting clearcuts, but performed much worse and poorly overall in detecting the partial harvest prescriptions (e.g., shelterwoods, thinnings) that were far more common in our ground-truthing data (and for this region). Among the algorithms tested, Landtrendr was consistently superior at both detecting partial harvests and estimating harvest intensity (volume removals), but there still remained substantial room for improvement. Overall, we suggest that these algorithms need further training and tuning to be reliably used for accurate monitoring of harvest-related activities in working forests of the US Northeast.","PeriodicalId":23386,"journal":{"name":"Turkish Journal of Forestry","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79287605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rory Eckardt, Jack B. Lutz, Donald G MacKay, Daniel McKeever
This paper analyzes more than 55 years of Maine stumpage prices and finds that the normal distribution does not best characterize many of the primary species and products located in the state. Nontrivial correlations are also identified among many of the species and product stumpage prices. The implications of these findings are discussed for the value of species and age diversification and the use of financial simulations to assess projected return distributions from timberland investments. Specifically, we look at two hypothetical timberland investment scenarios with varying amounts of species and age diversification and demonstrate the differences in the projected return distributions timber analysts would obtain with simple (normal distribution and independence) versus data-based (best-fit distributions and correlations) assumptions. The study findings imply that the use of simple assumptions (normally distributed and independent prices) in simulation analyses of timberland investments may lead to under- or overestimated projected return distributions, and that data-based assumptions (best fit distributions and correlations) are preferable for these types of analyses. Additionally, the correlations reported suggest species and age diversification may reduce financial risk of Maine timberland investments. Finally, the study findings indicate that the foundational assumptions of option-based techniques to value and assess timberland investments may be violated. The violations of the assumptions could potentially bias these analyses and may require new analytical approaches to accommodate alternative statistical distribution assumptions.
{"title":"Stumpage Price Distributions and Correlations and Their Impact On Timberland Investment Modeling: An Analysis Using Maine Stumpage Prices (1961–2017)","authors":"Rory Eckardt, Jack B. Lutz, Donald G MacKay, Daniel McKeever","doi":"10.1093/jofore/fvab068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab068","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 This paper analyzes more than 55 years of Maine stumpage prices and finds that the normal distribution does not best characterize many of the primary species and products located in the state. Nontrivial correlations are also identified among many of the species and product stumpage prices. The implications of these findings are discussed for the value of species and age diversification and the use of financial simulations to assess projected return distributions from timberland investments. Specifically, we look at two hypothetical timberland investment scenarios with varying amounts of species and age diversification and demonstrate the differences in the projected return distributions timber analysts would obtain with simple (normal distribution and independence) versus data-based (best-fit distributions and correlations) assumptions.\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 The study findings imply that the use of simple assumptions (normally distributed and independent prices) in simulation analyses of timberland investments may lead to under- or overestimated projected return distributions, and that data-based assumptions (best fit distributions and correlations) are preferable for these types of analyses. Additionally, the correlations reported suggest species and age diversification may reduce financial risk of Maine timberland investments. Finally, the study findings indicate that the foundational assumptions of option-based techniques to value and assess timberland investments may be violated. The violations of the assumptions could potentially bias these analyses and may require new analytical approaches to accommodate alternative statistical distribution assumptions.\u0000","PeriodicalId":23386,"journal":{"name":"Turkish Journal of Forestry","volume":"233 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74475658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
During the nineteenth century, the European field of forestry was transmitted through expanding colonial empires and networks that sought to inventory and monetize overseas woodlands. Encountering new environments and terrain, the nineteenth century British Empire discovered that existing surveying and enumeration methods were poorly suited for colonized territories. This was particularly true of British India, which spanned from modern-day Pakistan to Myanmar. Designed for European forests, forestry instruments in the nineteenth century performed poorly abroad. With the assistance of Syed Mir Mohsin Hussain, Dietrich Brandis—a German scientist and one of the first Inspectors General of Forests in British India—reconstituted a European hypsometer to address some of these challenges. The collaboration between the two men resulted in the Brandis hypsometer. For the subsequent half century, the hypsometer became a principal forestry device throughout the British Empire and the United States. Despite the widespread adoption of the device, critics challenged the operability and accuracy of the Brandis hypsometer. Using computer-aided design and modern fabrication techniques has allowed for a reexamination of this historic device. The authors’ investigation supports critics’ claims and suggests a degree of nuance for researchers relying on data produced by the device. Study Implications: In the early twentieth century, the Brandis hypsometer was the preferred and most used forestry mensuration tool in the world. However, the legacy of the Brandis hypsometer has been overlooked by historians and foresters. Developed by Dietrich Brandis, a former Inspector General of Forests, and Syed Mir Mohsin Hussain, the hypsometer was created to face the challenges of colonial forestry. After its adoption by major schools of forestry in British India, France, and the United States, the Brandis hypsometer became the select tool of western and colonial foresters. Longstanding challenges to the device’s accuracy are upheld by the authors.
在19世纪，欧洲的林业领域是通过不断扩张的殖民帝国和网络传播的，这些帝国和网络试图清点海外林地并将其货币化。面对新的环境和地形，19世纪的大英帝国发现，现有的测量和计数方法不适合殖民领土。英属印度尤其如此，从今天的巴基斯坦到缅甸。19世纪为欧洲森林设计的林业仪器在国外表现不佳。在赛义德·米尔·莫辛·侯赛因的协助下，迪特里希·布兰迪斯(Dietrich brandis)——一位德国科学家，也是英属印度首批森林监察长之一——重建了一项欧洲计划，以应对其中的一些挑战。两人的合作产生了布兰迪斯低度表。在随后的半个世纪里，测温仪成为整个大英帝国和美国的主要林业设备。尽管该装置被广泛采用，但批评者质疑布兰迪斯温度计的可操作性和准确性。使用计算机辅助设计和现代制造技术，可以重新检查这个历史悠久的设备。作者的调查支持了批评者的说法，并为依赖该设备产生的数据的研究人员提供了一定程度的细微差别。研究意义:在20世纪初，布兰迪斯低度表是世界上最常用的林业测量工具。然而，历史学家和森林学家却忽视了布兰迪斯低度表的遗产。由前森林监察长Dietrich Brandis和Syed Mir Mohsin Hussain开发的低度表是为了应对殖民地林业的挑战而创建的。在被英属印度、法国和美国的主要林业学校采用后，布兰迪斯测温仪成为西方和殖民地林业人员的首选工具。长期以来对该设备准确性的挑战得到了作者的支持。
{"title":"Gauging Historical Forest Surveys: Recalibrating the Legacy of the Brandis Hypsometer","authors":"Jameson Karns, David C Wohlers","doi":"10.1093/jofore/fvab069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab069","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 During the nineteenth century, the European field of forestry was transmitted through expanding colonial empires and networks that sought to inventory and monetize overseas woodlands. Encountering new environments and terrain, the nineteenth century British Empire discovered that existing surveying and enumeration methods were poorly suited for colonized territories. This was particularly true of British India, which spanned from modern-day Pakistan to Myanmar. Designed for European forests, forestry instruments in the nineteenth century performed poorly abroad. With the assistance of Syed Mir Mohsin Hussain, Dietrich Brandis—a German scientist and one of the first Inspectors General of Forests in British India—reconstituted a European hypsometer to address some of these challenges. The collaboration between the two men resulted in the Brandis hypsometer. For the subsequent half century, the hypsometer became a principal forestry device throughout the British Empire and the United States. Despite the widespread adoption of the device, critics challenged the operability and accuracy of the Brandis hypsometer. Using computer-aided design and modern fabrication techniques has allowed for a reexamination of this historic device. The authors’ investigation supports critics’ claims and suggests a degree of nuance for researchers relying on data produced by the device.\u0000 Study Implications: In the early twentieth century, the Brandis hypsometer was the preferred and most used forestry mensuration tool in the world. However, the legacy of the Brandis hypsometer has been overlooked by historians and foresters. Developed by Dietrich Brandis, a former Inspector General of Forests, and Syed Mir Mohsin Hussain, the hypsometer was created to face the challenges of colonial forestry. After its adoption by major schools of forestry in British India, France, and the United States, the Brandis hypsometer became the select tool of western and colonial foresters. Longstanding challenges to the device’s accuracy are upheld by the authors.","PeriodicalId":23386,"journal":{"name":"Turkish Journal of Forestry","volume":"111 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83690949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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