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Environmental Change Detection Study in the Wider Area of Lignite Mines 褐煤矿区大范围环境变化检测研究
Pub Date : 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.13189/CEA.2018.060207
I. Kotaridis, M. Lazaridou
Environmental monitoring of mine areas offers critical information about how they affect both natural and man-made environment. The Ptolemaida-Amyntaio lignite center plays a very important role in electrical industry of Greece, since it is the main energy fuel. The spatial growth of the lignite mine causes land cover change in the wider area. This paper aims to detect land cover changes in the wider area of the mines, in northwestern Greece, between two time periods using Remote Sensing and Geoinformation system (RS and GIS) methods. For this purpose multispectral images for both times were acquired, from Landsat data and a supervised classification was applied. Finally, qualitative and quantitative results obtained through visual interpretation and digital change detection study indicate that there has been a great increase in mine areas, affecting both agricultural land and man-made environment.
矿区环境监测提供了矿区如何影响自然和人为环境的重要信息。托勒梅达-阿明泰奥褐煤中心是希腊主要的能源燃料,在希腊电力工业中占有非常重要的地位。褐煤矿区的空间增长导致了更大范围的土地覆盖变化。本文旨在利用遥感和地理信息系统(RS和GIS)方法,在希腊西北部更广泛的矿区范围内检测两个时间段之间的土地覆盖变化。为此,从Landsat数据中获取了两次的多光谱图像,并应用了监督分类。最后,通过目视解译和数字变化检测研究获得的定性和定量结果表明,矿区已经大幅增加,对农业用地和人为环境都产生了影响。
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引用次数: 7
Oil Price Volatility and Political Unrest: Prudence and Protest in Producer and Consumer Societies, 1980-2013 油价波动与政治动荡:1980-2013年生产者和消费者社会的审慎与抗议
Pub Date : 2018-02-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3125195
K. Vadlamannati, Indra de Soysa
Many find that oil wealth produces political conflict. It is also argued that oil makes countries susceptible to the “resource curse” because rulers more easily buy off opposition and stave off economic reforms. We explore this issue by examining whether oil price volatility affects political unrest in oil-producing and oil import dependent states. We argue that in oil-producing countries, low prices generate anti-government protest conditional on a state´s access to foreign exchange reserves that accumulate due to political prudence. We also argue that oil-importing countries are affected by high oil prices, but again, conditional on access to foreign exchange reserves, which allow government to ease the pain of austerity. Using panel data covering 165 countries between 1980-2013 (34 years), we find support for the hypotheses. Our results lend support to the view that prudent governance in oil-producer countries that resist political Dutch disease and save for rainy days are more capable of weathering low-price years. These results are in line with others that show that oil producers avoid civil war through higher public spending. The results are robust to alternative data, measurement, sample size, and estimation methods.
许多人发现,石油财富会引发政治冲突。还有人认为,石油使国家容易受到“资源诅咒”的影响,因为统治者更容易收买反对派,推迟经济改革。我们通过研究石油价格波动是否影响石油生产国和石油进口依赖国的政治动荡来探讨这个问题。我们认为,在石油生产国,低油价引发反政府抗议的条件是国家能够获得由于政治审慎而积累起来的外汇储备。我们还认为,石油进口国受到高油价的影响,但同样,条件是获得外汇储备,这使政府能够缓解紧缩带来的痛苦。使用覆盖165个国家1980-2013年(34年)的面板数据,我们发现了对假设的支持。我们的研究结果支持这样一种观点,即石油生产国的审慎治理能够抵御政治上的荷兰病,未雨绸缪,更有能力度过低油价年份。这些结果与其他研究结果一致,表明石油生产国通过增加公共支出来避免内战。结果是稳健的替代数据,测量,样本量和估计方法。
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引用次数: 4
The Transition to Renewable Energy 向可再生能源的过渡
Pub Date : 2018-02-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3157480
C. Mason, Rémi Morin Chassé
The existing economics literature neglects the important role of capacity in the production of renewable energy. To fiill this gap, we construct a model in which renewable energy production is tied to renewable energy capacity, which then becomes a form of capital. This capacity capital can be increased through investment, which we interpret as arising from the allocation of energy, and which therefore comes at the cost of reduced general production. Requiring societal well-being to never decline, we describe how society could optimally elect to split energy in this fashion, the use of non-renewable energy resources, the use of renewable energy resources, and the implied time path of societal well-being. Our model delivers an empirically satisfactory explanation for simultaneous use of non-renewable and renewable energy. We also discuss the optimality of ceasing use of non-renewable energy before the non-renewable resource stock is fully exhausted.
现有的经济学文献忽视了产能在可再生能源生产中的重要作用。为了填补这一空白,我们构建了一个模型,其中可再生能源生产与可再生能源容量挂钩,然后可再生能源容量成为一种资本形式。这种能力资本可以通过投资来增加,我们将其解释为来自能源分配,因此以减少一般生产为代价。要求社会福祉永远不会下降,我们描述了社会如何以这种方式最佳地选择分配能源,使用不可再生能源,使用可再生能源,以及隐含的社会福祉的时间路径。我们的模型为同时使用不可再生能源和可再生能源提供了经验上令人满意的解释。我们还讨论了在不可再生资源存量完全耗尽之前停止使用不可再生能源的最优性。
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引用次数: 3
A Primer on Capacity Mechanisms 容量机制入门
Pub Date : 2018-02-13 DOI: 10.17863/CAM.21790
Natalia Fabra
A simple model is built up to capture the key drivers of investment and pricing incentives in electricity markets. The focus is put on the interaction between market power and investment incentives, and the trade-o_ it introduces when designing the optimal regulatory instruments. In contrast to the energy-only market paradigm that assumes perfect competition, our model demonstrates that in the presence of market power scarcity prices do not promote efficient investments, even among risk-neutral investors. Combining price caps and capacity payments allows to disentangle the two-fold objective of inducing the right investment incentives while mitigating market power. Bundling capacity payments with financial obligations further mitigates market power as long as strike prices are set sufficiently close to marginal costs.
建立了一个简单的模型来捕捉电力市场中投资和定价激励的关键驱动因素。重点放在市场力量和投资激励之间的相互作用,以及在设计最优监管工具时引入的贸易。与假设完全竞争的纯能源市场范式相反,我们的模型表明,在市场力量存在的情况下,稀缺价格不会促进有效投资,即使在风险中性投资者中也是如此。将价格上限和产能支付相结合,可以将引入正确的投资激励和减轻市场力量的双重目标分开。只要执行价格设定得足够接近边际成本,将产能支付与财务义务捆绑在一起,就会进一步削弱市场支配力。
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引用次数: 43
The Role of Carbon Capture and Storage Electricity in Attaining 1.5 and 2°C 碳捕获和储存电力在达到1.5和2°C中的作用
Pub Date : 2017-12-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3089665
A. Vinca, Marianna Rottoli, G. Marangoni, M. Tavoni
The climate targets defined under the Paris agreement of limiting global temperature increase below 1.5 or 2°C require massive deployment of low-carbon options in the energy mix, which is currently dominated by fossil fuels. Scenarios suggest that Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) might play a central role in this transformation, but CCS deployment is stagnating and doubts remain about its techno-economic feasibility. In this article, we carry out a throughout assessment of the role of CCS electricity for a variety of temperature targets, from 1.5 to above 4°C, with particular attention to the lower end of this range. We collect the latest data on CCS economic and technological future prospects to accurately represent several types of CCS plants in the WITCH energy-economy model, We capture uncertainties by means of extensive sensitivity analysis in parameters regarding plants technical aspects, as well as costs and technological progress. Our research suggests that stringent temperature scenarios constrain fossil fuel CCS based deployment, which is maximum for medium policy targets. On the other hand, Biomass CCS, along with renewables, increases with the temperature stringency. Moreover, the relative importance of cost and performance parameters change with the climate target. Cost uncertainty matters in less stringent policy cases, whereas performance matters for lower temperature targets.
根据《巴黎协定》确定的将全球气温上升限制在1.5°C或2°C以下的气候目标,需要在目前以化石燃料为主的能源结构中大规模部署低碳选择。设想表明,碳捕集与封存(CCS)可能在这一转变中发挥核心作用,但CCS的部署停滞不前,对其技术经济可行性的质疑仍然存在。在本文中,我们对CCS电力在各种温度目标(从1.5°C到4°C以上)中的作用进行了全面评估,并特别关注该范围的下限。我们收集了有关CCS经济和技术未来前景的最新数据,以准确地代表WITCH能源经济模型中的几种类型的CCS工厂,我们通过对工厂技术方面的参数进行广泛的敏感性分析,以及成本和技术进步来捕捉不确定性。我们的研究表明,严格的温度情景限制了基于化石燃料CCS的部署,这是中等政策目标的最大限度。另一方面,生物质能CCS和可再生能源随着温度的升高而增加。此外,成本和性能参数的相对重要性随着气候目标的变化而变化。在不太严格的政策情况下,成本不确定性很重要,而在较低温度目标下,性能很重要。
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引用次数: 34
Sector and Technology Prioritization in the Context of Sustainable Development 可持续发展背景下的部门和技术优先次序
Pub Date : 2017-12-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3081710
Sivanappan Kumar, Janardhana Anjanappa
Prioritization of sectors and sub-sectors is essential for providing suitable technology interventions at (sub) sectoral level and help to formulate environmental policy and regulations. In this context this study illustrates sector and sub-sector prioritization using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach and prioritize the portfolio of low emissions technologies at (sub) sector level by using cost-benefit analysis tool approach. The findings of this study suggest that updated GHG inventory and stakeholder engagement process are vital for sector and technology prioritization. The outcome of the process will help to formulate Low Emissions Development Strategies (LEDs) and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) at the national level.
确定部门和分部门的优先次序对于在(分)部门一级提供适当的技术干预和帮助制定环境政策和条例至关重要。在此背景下,本研究使用多标准决策分析(MCDA)方法说明了部门和分部门的优先级,并通过使用成本效益分析工具方法在(分)部门层面优先考虑低排放技术组合。本研究的结果表明,更新的温室气体清单和利益相关者参与过程对于部门和技术优先级至关重要。该进程的结果将有助于在国家一级制定低排放发展战略和国家适当缓解行动。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Electricity Technical Losses on Ghana's Economy: A Simulation Evaluation 电力技术损失对加纳经济的影响:模拟评估
Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/opec.12111
K. K. Abrokwa, John Bosco Dramani, K. Bhattarai
This study investigates the effects of electricity distribution inefficiencies in Ghana's electricity sector on output, consumption and investments. Inefficiencies are considered as losses in transmission and distribution channels from the generator to the final consumer of energy leading to supply–demand mismatch (shortages and blackouts). We assume that, a high inefficiency reflects high electricity cost in the sector. A simple dynamic version of the Ramsey growth model is developed, providing analytical solutions and applying simulations to evaluate the economic cost. Results from the simulations show that, electricity shortages and blackouts reduce output, consumption and investments in the economy. Improvements in energy technologies for generating and distributing electricity can offset the negative impacts and improve efficiency in the sector.
本研究调查了加纳电力部门分配效率低下对产出、消费和投资的影响。低效率被认为是从发电机到最终消费者的传输和分配渠道的损失,导致供应和需求不匹配(短缺和停电)。我们假设,高效率反映了该部门的高电力成本。本文提出了一个简单的动态版本的拉姆齐增长模型,提供了分析解决方案,并应用模拟来评估经济成本。模拟结果表明,电力短缺和停电减少了经济产出、消费和投资。发电和配电技术的改进可以抵消这些负面影响,提高该部门的效率。
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引用次数: 4
Hydropower Operation in a Changing Market Environment – A Swiss Case Study 不断变化的市场环境下的水电运营——一个瑞士案例研究
Pub Date : 2017-11-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3110605
M. Schillinger, H. Weigt, Michael Barry, R. Schumann
Hydropower (HP) is expected to play an important role in the European energy transition by providing back-up and storage capacity as well as flexibility for intermittent renewable energies. However, due to low electricity market prices the profitability of HP decreased in recent years. In this paper, we analyze historic revenue potentials and future market prospects for HP taking into account different development paths. Using a short-term HP operation model to capture market opportunities as well as technical and natural constraints of HP plants, we model three representative Swiss HP plants. The results indicate that in the last years, balancing markets could have provided significant additional revenues for HP plants. However, accounting for uncertainties and market characteristics, the potential of balancing markets is reduced but cross-market optimization is still beneficial. Looking into the future, market price prospects for the coming decade are low to modest. Global fuel markets and the European Union Emissions Trading System (ETS) will be the main drivers for decisions for Swiss HP. The revenue potential from balancing markets will be reduced significantly in the future if all Swiss HP operators aim for balancing. While optimized operation across markets helps Swiss HP to increase its revenues, it is limited in scale.
预计水电将在欧洲能源转型中发挥重要作用,为间歇性可再生能源提供备用和储存能力以及灵活性。然而,由于电力市场价格较低,惠普的盈利能力近年来有所下降。在本文中,我们分析了历史收入潜力和未来的市场前景惠普考虑到不同的发展路径。利用短期惠普运营模型来捕捉市场机会以及惠普工厂的技术和自然限制,我们对三个具有代表性的瑞士惠普工厂进行了建模。结果表明,在过去几年中,平衡市场可能为惠普工厂提供了显著的额外收入。然而,考虑到不确定性和市场特点,平衡市场的潜力降低,但跨市场优化仍然是有益的。展望未来,未来十年的市场价格前景低至中等。全球燃料市场和欧盟排放交易系统(ETS)将是瑞士惠普公司决策的主要推动力。如果所有瑞士惠普运营商都以平衡为目标,那么平衡市场的收入潜力将在未来显著减少。虽然跨市场的优化运营有助于瑞士惠普增加收入,但其规模有限。
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引用次数: 7
Oil Prices & Dynamic Games Under Stochastic Demand 随机需求下的石油价格与动态博弈
Pub Date : 2017-10-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3047390
I. Brown, Jacob Funk, R. Sircar
Oil prices remained relatively low but volatile in the 2015-17 period, largely due to declining and uncertain demand from China. This follows a prolonged decline from around $110 per barrel in June 2014 to below $30 in January 2016, due in large part to increased supply of shale oil in the US, which was spurred by the development of fracking technology. Most dynamic Cournot models focus on supply-side factors, such as increased shale oil, and random discoveries. However, uncertain demand is a major factor driving oil price volatility. This motivates the study of Cournot games in a stochastic demand environment. We present analytic and numerical results, as well as a modified Hotelling's rule for games with stochastic demand. We highlight how lower demand forces out higher cost producers from producing, and how such changing market structure can induce price volatility.
2015年至2017年期间,油价仍然相对较低,但波动较大,这主要是由于中国需求的下降和不确定性。在此之前,油价从2014年6月的每桶110美元左右持续下跌至2016年1月的30美元以下,这在很大程度上是由于水力压裂技术的发展刺激了美国页岩油供应的增加。大多数动态古诺模型关注的是供给侧因素,如页岩油的增加和随机发现。然而,不确定的需求是推动油价波动的主要因素。这激发了对随机需求环境下古诺博弈的研究。本文给出了具有随机需求的对策的解析和数值结果,以及改进的Hotelling规则。我们强调了低需求如何迫使高成本生产商退出生产,以及这种不断变化的市场结构如何导致价格波动。
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引用次数: 10
Big and Little Feet Provincial Profiles: New Brunswick 大脚和小脚省概况:新不伦瑞克省
Pub Date : 2017-09-28 DOI: 10.11575/SPPP.V10I0.43057
S. Dobson, G. Fellows
This communique provides a summary of the production- and consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions accounts for New Brunswick, as well as their associated trade flows. It is part of a series of communiques profiling the Canadian provinces and territories.1 In simplest terms, a production-based emissions account measures the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions produced in New Brunswick. In contrast, a consumptionbased emissions account measures the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions generated during the production process for final goods and services that are consumed in New Brunswick through household purchases, investment by firms and government spending. Trade flows refer to the movement of emissions that are produced in New Brunswick but which support consumption in a different province, territory or country (and vice versa). For example, emissions associated with the production of motor gasoline in New Brunswick that is exported to Quebec for sale are recorded as a trade flow from New Brunswick to Quebec. Moving in the opposite direction, emissions associated with the production of Nova Scotia natural gas that is sold to a New Brunswick utility and used to generate electricity for New Brunswick homes are recorded as a trade flow from Nova Scotia to New Brunswick. For further details on these results in a national context, the methodology for generating them and their policy implications, please see the companion papers to this communique series: (1) Fellows and Dobson (2017); and (2) Dobson and Fellows (2017). Additionally, the consumption emissions and trade flow data for each of the provinces and territories are available at: http://www.policyschool.ca/embodied-emissions-inputs-outputs-datatables-2004-2011/.
本公报概述了新不伦瑞克省以生产和消费为基础的温室气体排放账户及其相关的贸易流量。它是介绍加拿大各省和地区的一系列公报的一部分简单来说,以生产为基础的排放账户衡量新不伦瑞克省产生的温室气体排放量。相比之下,以消费为基础的排放账户衡量的是新不伦瑞克省通过家庭购买、企业投资和政府支出消费的最终产品和服务的生产过程中产生的温室气体排放量。贸易流量指的是在新不伦瑞克省产生的、但在另一个省、地区或国家支持消费的排放的流动(反之亦然)。例如,在新不伦瑞克省生产出口到魁北克销售的汽车汽油所产生的排放被记录为从新不伦瑞克省到魁北克的贸易流量。与此相反,新斯科舍天然气的生产所产生的排放被记录为从新斯科舍省到新不伦瑞克省的贸易流,这些天然气被出售给新不伦瑞克省的一家公用事业公司,用于为新不伦瑞克省的家庭发电。有关这些结果在国家背景下的进一步详细信息、产生这些结果的方法及其政策含义,请参阅本公报系列的配套论文:(1)Fellows and Dobson (2017);(2) Dobson and Fellows(2017)。此外,每个省和地区的消费排放和贸易流量数据可在http://www.policyschool.ca/embodied-emissions-inputs-outputs-datatables-2004-2011/上获得。
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引用次数: 0
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