Pub Date : 2017-09-28DOI: 10.11575/SPPP.V10I0.43060
S. Dobson, G. Fellows
This communique provides a summary of the production- and consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions accounts for Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as their associated trade flows. It is part of a series of communiques profiling the Canadian provinces and territories.1 In simplest terms, a production-based emissions account measures the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions produced in Newfoundland and Labrador. In contrast, a consumption-based emissions account measures the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions generated during the production process for final goods and services that are consumed in Newfoundland and Labrador through household purchases, investment by firms and government spending. Trade flows refer to the movement of emissions that are produced in Newfoundland and Labrador but which support consumption in a different province, territory or country (and vice versa). For example, emissions associated with the production of Newfoundland and Labrador crude oil that is exported to New Brunswick for refining and sale as motor gasoline are recorded as a trade flow from Newfoundland and Labrador to New Brunswick. Moving in the opposite direction, emissions associated with the production of a Quebec manufactured good that is exported to Newfoundland and Labrador for sale are recorded as a trade flow from Quebec to Newfoundland and Labrador. For further details on these results in a national context, the methodology for generating them and their policy implications, please see the companion papers to this communique series: (1) Fellows and Dobson (2017); and (2) Dobson and Fellows (2017). Additionally, the consumption emissions and trade flow data for each of the provinces and territories are available at: http://www.policyschool.ca/embodied-emissions-inputs-outputs-datatables-2004-2011/.
本公报概述了纽芬兰和拉布拉多以生产和消费为基础的温室气体排放占比，以及相关的贸易流量。它是介绍加拿大各省和地区的一系列公报的一部分简单地说，以生产为基础的排放账户衡量纽芬兰和拉布拉多产生的温室气体排放量。相比之下，以消费为基础的排放账户衡量的是纽芬兰和拉布拉多通过家庭购买、企业投资和政府支出消费的最终产品和服务的生产过程中产生的温室气体排放量。贸易流量指的是在纽芬兰和拉布拉多产生的、但支持另一个省、地区或国家消费的排放的流动(反之亦然)。例如，纽芬兰和拉布拉多原油出口到新不伦瑞克省进行精炼和作为汽车汽油销售，与生产相关的排放被记录为从纽芬兰和拉布拉多到新不伦瑞克省的贸易流。相反，魁北克制成品出口到纽芬兰和拉布拉多出售的过程中产生的排放被记录为魁北克到纽芬兰和拉布拉多的贸易流量。有关这些结果在国家背景下的进一步详细信息、产生这些结果的方法及其政策含义，请参阅本公报系列的配套论文:(1)Fellows and Dobson (2017);(2) Dobson and Fellows(2017)。此外，每个省和地区的消费排放和贸易流量数据可在http://www.policyschool.ca/embodied-emissions-inputs-outputs-datatables-2004-2011/上获得。
{"title":"Big and Little Feet Provincial Profiles: Newfoundland and Labrador","authors":"S. Dobson, G. Fellows","doi":"10.11575/SPPP.V10I0.43060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11575/SPPP.V10I0.43060","url":null,"abstract":"This communique provides a summary of the production- and consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions accounts for Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as their associated trade flows. It is part of a series of communiques profiling the Canadian provinces and territories.1 In simplest terms, a production-based emissions account measures the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions produced in Newfoundland and Labrador. In contrast, a consumption-based emissions account measures the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions generated during the production process for final goods and services that are consumed in Newfoundland and Labrador through household purchases, investment by firms and government spending. Trade flows refer to the movement of emissions that are produced in Newfoundland and Labrador but which support consumption in a different province, territory or country (and vice versa). For example, emissions associated with the production of Newfoundland and Labrador crude oil that is exported to New Brunswick for refining and sale as motor gasoline are recorded as a trade flow from Newfoundland and Labrador to New Brunswick. Moving in the opposite direction, emissions associated with the production of a Quebec manufactured good that is exported to Newfoundland and Labrador for sale are recorded as a trade flow from Quebec to Newfoundland and Labrador. For further details on these results in a national context, the methodology for generating them and their policy implications, please see the companion papers to this communique series: (1) Fellows and Dobson (2017); and (2) Dobson and Fellows (2017). Additionally, the consumption emissions and trade flow data for each of the provinces and territories are available at: http://www.policyschool.ca/embodied-emissions-inputs-outputs-datatables-2004-2011/.","PeriodicalId":234456,"journal":{"name":"Politics & Energy eJournal","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126046765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We propose a new multivariate model to capture the presence of jumps in mean and conditional variance in the returns of oil prices and companies in this sector. The model is based on the presence of common factors associated with jumps in mean and variance, as it performs a decomposition of the conditional variance of each asset as the sum of the common factor plus a specific transitory factor in a multivariate stochastic volatility structure. The estimation is made through Bayesian methods using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The model allows recovering the changes in prices and volatility patterns observed in this sector, relating the jumps with the events observed in the period 2000-2015. We apply the model to estimate risk management measures, hedging and portfolio allocation and performing a comparison with other multivariate models of conditional volatility. Based on the results, we may conclude that the proposed model has a better performance when used to calculate portfolio VaR, since it does not reject the hypothesis of correct nominal coverage with certain specifications presented in this work. Furthermore, we conclude that the model can be used to hedge oil price risks, through the optimal hedge ratio for a portfolio containing an oil company asset (stock) and the oil price contract. When compared to the standard methodology based on GARCH models, our model performs well in this application
{"title":"Multivariate Stochastic Volatility-Double Jump Model: An Application for Oil Assets","authors":"M. Laurini, R. Mauad, F. Aiube","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3037158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3037158","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a new multivariate model to capture the presence of jumps in mean and conditional variance in the returns of oil prices and companies in this sector. The model is based on the presence of common factors associated with jumps in mean and variance, as it performs a decomposition of the conditional variance of each asset as the sum of the common factor plus a specific transitory factor in a multivariate stochastic volatility structure. The estimation is made through Bayesian methods using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The model allows recovering the changes in prices and volatility patterns observed in this sector, relating the jumps with the events observed in the period 2000-2015. We apply the model to estimate risk management measures, hedging and portfolio allocation and performing a comparison with other multivariate models of conditional volatility. Based on the results, we may conclude that the proposed model has a better performance when used to calculate portfolio VaR, since it does not reject the hypothesis of correct nominal coverage with certain specifications presented in this work. Furthermore, we conclude that the model can be used to hedge oil price risks, through the optimal hedge ratio for a portfolio containing an oil company asset (stock) and the oil price contract. When compared to the standard methodology based on GARCH models, our model performs well in this application","PeriodicalId":234456,"journal":{"name":"Politics & Energy eJournal","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126425303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
En algunas ocasiones, dos recursos naturales no renovables pueden compartir espacio fisico; este es el caso del gas y del petroleo cuando estan disponibles en el mismo campo de produccion. En la literatura economica no se ha analizado en profundidad las implicaciones de esta caracteristica sobre las decisiones de extraccion de una empresa que cuenta con ambos recursos. A diferencia del caso con yacimientos distantes, la proximidad entre los dos combustibles fosiles facilita la inyeccion de gas en los pozos de crudo, lo cual permite aumentar la extraccion de este ultimo. Ademas, se debe tener en cuenta la correlacion de los precios y las externalidades que ambos recursos generan sobre el medio ambiente ya que las decisiones de extraccion se vuelven interdependientes. Dadas las relaciones tecnicas y economicas entre el gas y el crudo cuando se encuentran en el mismo campo, en este documento se postula el problema dinamico de maximizacion de beneficios de una empresa que extrae los dos recursos, con el fin de encontrar las sendas optimas de extraccion de cada uno para un horizonte de tiempo finito. Los modelos propuestos se validan para el caso colombiano. Para esto, se lleva a cabo la parametrizacion de las funciones de costos y se realizan simulaciones para una ventana de tiempo de 26 anos. Los resultados muestran que, cuando hay disponibilidad de gas, es optimo realizar inyeccion en casi todos los periodos. Sin embargo, en un escenario de precios decrecientes la produccion de petroleo y la inyeccion de gas deben disminuir, mientras que la venta de gas debe aumentar. Finalmente, la implementacion de un impuesto a las emisiones de carbono disminuye marginalmente la cantidad total producida de combustibles fosiles, pero reduce significativamente las emisiones de carbono. Ademas, la sensibilidad al impuesto disminuye con el aumento del precio del crudo.
{"title":"Extracción Dinámica Óptima De Gas Y Petróleo En Colombia: Retos Del Uso Simultáneo De Dos Recursos Naturales (Optimal Dynamic Extraction of Gas and Oil in Colombia: Challenges of the Simultaneous Use of Two Natural Resources)","authors":"Xiomara Pulido","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3036567","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3036567","url":null,"abstract":"En algunas ocasiones, dos recursos naturales no renovables pueden compartir espacio fisico; este es el caso del gas y del petroleo cuando estan disponibles en el mismo campo de produccion. En la literatura economica no se ha analizado en profundidad las implicaciones de esta caracteristica sobre las decisiones de extraccion de una empresa que cuenta con ambos recursos. A diferencia del caso con yacimientos distantes, la proximidad entre los dos combustibles fosiles facilita la inyeccion de gas en los pozos de crudo, lo cual permite aumentar la extraccion de este ultimo. Ademas, se debe tener en cuenta la correlacion de los precios y las externalidades que ambos recursos generan sobre el medio ambiente ya que las decisiones de extraccion se vuelven interdependientes. Dadas las relaciones tecnicas y economicas entre el gas y el crudo cuando se encuentran en el mismo campo, en este documento se postula el problema dinamico de maximizacion de beneficios de una empresa que extrae los dos recursos, con el fin de encontrar las sendas optimas de extraccion de cada uno para un horizonte de tiempo finito. Los modelos propuestos se validan para el caso colombiano. Para esto, se lleva a cabo la parametrizacion de las funciones de costos y se realizan simulaciones para una ventana de tiempo de 26 anos. Los resultados muestran que, cuando hay disponibilidad de gas, es optimo realizar inyeccion en casi todos los periodos. Sin embargo, en un escenario de precios decrecientes la produccion de petroleo y la inyeccion de gas deben disminuir, mientras que la venta de gas debe aumentar. Finalmente, la implementacion de un impuesto a las emisiones de carbono disminuye marginalmente la cantidad total producida de combustibles fosiles, pero reduce significativamente las emisiones de carbono. Ademas, la sensibilidad al impuesto disminuye con el aumento del precio del crudo.","PeriodicalId":234456,"journal":{"name":"Politics & Energy eJournal","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128960052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyze the significance of an ice-free Northeast Passage (NEP) as a shipping route for LNG, and the impacts on alternative transport routes and -capacities. The following aspects are considered: (1) Trends in LNG production, particularly in the Russian Arctic; (2) Developments in the Asian LNG consumer market; (3) Specifics and prospects of Arctic shipping. The major LNG trade flows between producers and the Asian consumer market are modeled. Methods from Operations Research are contrasted and the Cycle-Cancelling Algorithm applied to the transportation problem, in order to achieve a cost-optimal capacity allocation. The impacts of demand variations and a chokepoint shutdown on transport routes and -capacities are considered. Concepts from competition theory are used to model the effects on LNG pricing. The key finding is that an ice-free NEP is highly relevant for shipping activities of Russian LNG producers. It constitutes a competitive advantage and notably impacts the supply competition and pricing on the Asian LNG market. A discussion of results and a conclusion critically reflect upon the research undertaken, providing an outlook and suggestions for future research.
{"title":"Impacts of an Ice-Free Northeast Passage on LNG Trading: Transport Routes and Optimal Capacity Planning","authors":"Michael Schach, R. Madlener","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3129990","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3129990","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the significance of an ice-free Northeast Passage (NEP) as a shipping route for LNG, and the impacts on alternative transport routes and -capacities. The following aspects are considered: (1) Trends in LNG production, particularly in the Russian Arctic; (2) Developments in the Asian LNG consumer market; (3) Specifics and prospects of Arctic shipping. The major LNG trade flows between producers and the Asian consumer market are modeled. Methods from Operations Research are contrasted and the Cycle-Cancelling Algorithm applied to the transportation problem, in order to achieve a cost-optimal capacity allocation. The impacts of demand variations and a chokepoint shutdown on transport routes and -capacities are considered. Concepts from competition theory are used to model the effects on LNG pricing. The key finding is that an ice-free NEP is highly relevant for shipping activities of Russian LNG producers. It constitutes a competitive advantage and notably impacts the supply competition and pricing on the Asian LNG market. A discussion of results and a conclusion critically reflect upon the research undertaken, providing an outlook and suggestions for future research.","PeriodicalId":234456,"journal":{"name":"Politics & Energy eJournal","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132323848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the causal relationship between crude oil price, energy consumption and CO emissions in Ecuador over the period 1971–2013 incorporating indicators of economic performance. ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration provides evidence of cointegration between the variables in the presence of structural break in the series. The long‐run effect of energy consumption on CO emissions in the oil‐dependent economy is found to be positive and statistically significant. The long‐run and short‐run causal effects of crude oil price on energy consumption and CO emissions in the economy are found positive and statistically significant, suggesting that higher crude oil prices create economic conditions that generate more energy consumption and CO emissions in the Ecuadorean economy. The direction of causality among the variables examined using Toda‐Yamamoto Granger causality test procedure suggests that a unidirectional causality runs from crude oil price to energy consumption and economic growth, and bidirectional causality between energy consumption and CO emissions. A unidirectional causality that flows from CO emissions to economic growth through financial development is also observed in the economy.
{"title":"Causal Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide (CO) Emissions in Ecuador","authors":"Chinazaekpere Nwani","doi":"10.1111/opec.12102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12102","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the causal relationship between crude oil price, energy consumption and CO emissions in Ecuador over the period 1971–2013 incorporating indicators of economic performance. ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration provides evidence of cointegration between the variables in the presence of structural break in the series. The long‐run effect of energy consumption on CO emissions in the oil‐dependent economy is found to be positive and statistically significant. The long‐run and short‐run causal effects of crude oil price on energy consumption and CO emissions in the economy are found positive and statistically significant, suggesting that higher crude oil prices create economic conditions that generate more energy consumption and CO emissions in the Ecuadorean economy. The direction of causality among the variables examined using Toda‐Yamamoto Granger causality test procedure suggests that a unidirectional causality runs from crude oil price to energy consumption and economic growth, and bidirectional causality between energy consumption and CO emissions. A unidirectional causality that flows from CO emissions to economic growth through financial development is also observed in the economy.","PeriodicalId":234456,"journal":{"name":"Politics & Energy eJournal","volume":"100 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124770471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the incremental power of a large set of key fundamental, financial, and macroeconomic variables for forecasting the volatility of natural gas futures prices. Among other results, we find that the option implied volatility (IV) significantly improves the performance of predictions regarding the future volatility of the natural gas market. We also identify several fundamental and macroeconomic variables (e.g., open interests, default premiums, and the return of the housing index) which are statistically-significant in a predictive regression even after including the option implied volatility. On the other hand, we do not find a substantial increase in the adjusted-R2 of the predictive regressions (including IVs) after adding significant fundamental variables. The small incremental predictive power of fundamental variables is interpreted as a sign of the efficiency of the options market. We also observe that the adjusted-R2s of predictive regressions are higher when the time-to-maturity of the futures contract increases. Our results can help users of natural gas volatility forecasts (e.g., producers, utility companies, and portfolio managers) make better informed and more efficient operational and financial decisions.
{"title":"Option Prices Incorporate Fundamentals: Evidence from US Natural Gas Market","authors":"Sahar Emamzadehfard, Hamed Ghoddusi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3026119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3026119","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the incremental power of a large set of key fundamental, financial, and macroeconomic variables for forecasting the volatility of natural gas futures prices. Among other results, we find that the option implied volatility (IV) significantly improves the performance of predictions regarding the future volatility of the natural gas market. We also identify several fundamental and macroeconomic variables (e.g., open interests, default premiums, and the return of the housing index) which are statistically-significant in a predictive regression even after including the option implied volatility. On the other hand, we do not find a substantial increase in the adjusted-R2 of the predictive regressions (including IVs) after adding significant fundamental variables. The small incremental predictive power of fundamental variables is interpreted as a sign of the efficiency of the options market. We also observe that the adjusted-R2s of predictive regressions are higher when the time-to-maturity of the futures contract increases. Our results can help users of natural gas volatility forecasts (e.g., producers, utility companies, and portfolio managers) make better informed and more efficient operational and financial decisions.","PeriodicalId":234456,"journal":{"name":"Politics & Energy eJournal","volume":"107 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123508132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article draws on three theoretical fields, innovation intermediaries, socio-technical transitions and domestication studies to develop a process perspective of how user-side intermediary organisations seek to locally embed low carbon technologies. The term local embedding is increasingly used by transition researchers in a variety of ways. The first contribution of this paper is to explore and substantiate the concept of local embedding as the process of integrating technologies into local contexts of use. Intermediary organisations are conceived as contributing to local embedding where they facilitate, configure and broker change towards configurations that work. Nonetheless, understanding how these key intermediary processes relate as well as the influence of system dynamics on the work intermediaries undertake is still largely uncharted territory. The paper’s second contribution is a process perspective on the agency of intermediary organisations in local embedding. The resulting perspective offers insights into the agency of user-side intermediaries and later phases of transition processes.
{"title":"User-Intermediaries and the Local Embedding of Low Carbon Technologies","authors":"Jake Barnes","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3019957","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3019957","url":null,"abstract":"This article draws on three theoretical fields, innovation intermediaries, socio-technical transitions and domestication studies to develop a process perspective of how user-side intermediary organisations seek to locally embed low carbon technologies. The term local embedding is increasingly used by transition researchers in a variety of ways. The first contribution of this paper is to explore and substantiate the concept of local embedding as the process of integrating technologies into local contexts of use. Intermediary organisations are conceived as contributing to local embedding where they facilitate, configure and broker change towards configurations that work. Nonetheless, understanding how these key intermediary processes relate as well as the influence of system dynamics on the work intermediaries undertake is still largely uncharted territory. The paper’s second contribution is a process perspective on the agency of intermediary organisations in local embedding. The resulting perspective offers insights into the agency of user-side intermediaries and later phases of transition processes.","PeriodicalId":234456,"journal":{"name":"Politics & Energy eJournal","volume":"259 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133528072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Konstantin Löffler, K. Hainsch, Thorsten Burandt, P. oei, C. Kemfert, C. von Hirschhausen
This paper develops a path for the global energy system up to 2050, presenting a new application of the open source energy systems model OSeMOSYS to the community. It allows quite disaggregate energy and emission analysis: GENeSYS-MOD (Global Energy System Model) uses a system of linear equations of the energy system to search for lowestcost solutions for a secure energy supply, given externally defined constraints, mainly in terms of CO2-emissions. The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) version of OSeMOSYS is updated to the newest version and, in addition, extended and enhanced to include e.g. a modal split for transport, an improved trading system, and changes to storages. The model can be scaled from small-scale applications, e.g. a company, to cover the global energy system. The paper also includes an application of GENeSYS-MOD to analyze decarbonization scenarios at the global level, broken down into 10 regions. Its main focus is on interdependencies between traditionally segregated sectors: electricity, transportation, and heating. Model calculations suggests that in order to achieve the 1.5°-2° C target, a combination of renewable energy sources provides the lowest-cost solution, solar photovoltaic being the dominant source. Average costs of electricity generation in 2050 are about 4 €cents/kWh (excluding infrastructure and transportation costs).
{"title":"Designing a Global Energy System Based on 100% Rwables for 2050: GENeSYS-MOD: An Application of the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS)","authors":"Konstantin Löffler, K. Hainsch, Thorsten Burandt, P. oei, C. Kemfert, C. von Hirschhausen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3028519","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3028519","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a path for the global energy system up to 2050, presenting a new application of the open source energy systems model OSeMOSYS to the community. It allows quite disaggregate energy and emission analysis: GENeSYS-MOD (Global Energy System Model) uses a system of linear equations of the energy system to search for lowestcost solutions for a secure energy supply, given externally defined constraints, mainly in terms of CO2-emissions. The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) version of OSeMOSYS is updated to the newest version and, in addition, extended and enhanced to include e.g. a modal split for transport, an improved trading system, and changes to storages. The model can be scaled from small-scale applications, e.g. a company, to cover the global energy system. The paper also includes an application of GENeSYS-MOD to analyze decarbonization scenarios at the global level, broken down into 10 regions. Its main focus is on interdependencies between traditionally segregated sectors: electricity, transportation, and heating. Model calculations suggests that in order to achieve the 1.5°-2° C target, a combination of renewable energy sources provides the lowest-cost solution, solar photovoltaic being the dominant source. Average costs of electricity generation in 2050 are about 4 €cents/kWh (excluding infrastructure and transportation costs).","PeriodicalId":234456,"journal":{"name":"Politics & Energy eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130983247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2016, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided on global regulations to reduce sulphur emissions to air from maritime shipping starting 2020. The regulation implies that ships can continue to use residual fuels with a high sulphur content, such as heavy fuel oil (HFO), if they employ scrubbers to desulphurise the exhaust gases. Alternatively, they can use fuels with less than 0.5% sulphur, such as desulphurised HFO, distillates (diesel) or liquefied natural gas (LNG). The options of lighter fuels and desulphurisation entail costs, including higher energy consumption at refineries, and the present study identifies and compares compliance options as a function of ship type and operational patterns. The results indicate distillates as an attractive option for smaller vessels, while scrubbers will be an attractive option for larger vessels. For all vessels, apart from the largest fuel consumers, residual fuels desulphurised to less than 0.5 % sulphur are also a competing abatement option. Moreover, we analyse the interaction between global SOX reductions and CO2 (and fuel consumption), and the results indicate that the higher fuel cost for distillates will motivate shippers to lower speeds, which will offset the increased CO2 emissions at the refineries. Scrubbers, in contrast, will raise speeds and CO2 emissions.
{"title":"Sulphur Abatement Globally in Maritime Shipping","authors":"H. Lindstad, C. Rehn, G. Eskeland","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2994757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2994757","url":null,"abstract":"In 2016, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided on global regulations to reduce sulphur emissions to air from maritime shipping starting 2020. The regulation implies that ships can continue to use residual fuels with a high sulphur content, such as heavy fuel oil (HFO), if they employ scrubbers to desulphurise the exhaust gases. Alternatively, they can use fuels with less than 0.5% sulphur, such as desulphurised HFO, distillates (diesel) or liquefied natural gas (LNG). The options of lighter fuels and desulphurisation entail costs, including higher energy consumption at refineries, and the present study identifies and compares compliance options as a function of ship type and operational patterns. The results indicate distillates as an attractive option for smaller vessels, while scrubbers will be an attractive option for larger vessels. For all vessels, apart from the largest fuel consumers, residual fuels desulphurised to less than 0.5 % sulphur are also a competing abatement option. Moreover, we analyse the interaction between global SOX reductions and CO2 (and fuel consumption), and the results indicate that the higher fuel cost for distillates will motivate shippers to lower speeds, which will offset the increased CO2 emissions at the refineries. Scrubbers, in contrast, will raise speeds and CO2 emissions.","PeriodicalId":234456,"journal":{"name":"Politics & Energy eJournal","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125611682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Sakr, J. Huenteler, Tyeler Matsuo, Ashish Khanna
Like many emerging markets, the Arab Republic of Egypt is keen to promote distributed solar, defined here as systems below 500 kilowatts, but has struggled to create conditions for growth in the sector. The aim of this paper is to identify policy actions to unlock the distributed solar market for on-grid and off-grid applications, using Egypt as a case study. The paper calculates the rate of return on investment for different distributed solar applications, identifies nonfinancial barriers to scaling up distributed solar, and derives policy implications. For on-grid applications, the analysis finds that neither net metering nor the feed-in tariff makes distributed solar financially attractive, despite recent reductions in electricity subsidies and adjustments of feed-in tariff levels in October 2016. For off-grid applications, the profitability of distributed solar depends highly on the local price of diesel: distributed solar is viable only in areas where diesel is not available at the official (subsidized) price. In addition, several nonfinancial barriers limit the scalability of the distributed solar market. These findings indicate that the distributed solar market in Egypt will remain a niche market in the next few years without strengthened government support. First, for on-grid applications, the net metering scheme should be kept in place until a bankable feed-in tariff has been established. Second, for off-grid applications, the government should explore interventions to unlock opportunities in the agriculture and tourism sectors. Third, the government should strengthen private-sector activity in the sector, including by addressing nonfinancial barriers, such as transaction costs and gaps in the availability of data, and by building capacity among users, suppliers, and financial institutions.
{"title":"Scaling Up Distributed Solar in Emerging Markets: The Case of the Arab Republic of Egypt","authors":"D. Sakr, J. Huenteler, Tyeler Matsuo, Ashish Khanna","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-8103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8103","url":null,"abstract":"Like many emerging markets, the Arab Republic of Egypt is keen to promote distributed solar, defined here as systems below 500 kilowatts, but has struggled to create conditions for growth in the sector. The aim of this paper is to identify policy actions to unlock the distributed solar market for on-grid and off-grid applications, using Egypt as a case study. The paper calculates the rate of return on investment for different distributed solar applications, identifies nonfinancial barriers to scaling up distributed solar, and derives policy implications. For on-grid applications, the analysis finds that neither net metering nor the feed-in tariff makes distributed solar financially attractive, despite recent reductions in electricity subsidies and adjustments of feed-in tariff levels in October 2016. For off-grid applications, the profitability of distributed solar depends highly on the local price of diesel: distributed solar is viable only in areas where diesel is not available at the official (subsidized) price. In addition, several nonfinancial barriers limit the scalability of the distributed solar market. These findings indicate that the distributed solar market in Egypt will remain a niche market in the next few years without strengthened government support. First, for on-grid applications, the net metering scheme should be kept in place until a bankable feed-in tariff has been established. Second, for off-grid applications, the government should explore interventions to unlock opportunities in the agriculture and tourism sectors. Third, the government should strengthen private-sector activity in the sector, including by addressing nonfinancial barriers, such as transaction costs and gaps in the availability of data, and by building capacity among users, suppliers, and financial institutions.","PeriodicalId":234456,"journal":{"name":"Politics & Energy eJournal","volume":"110 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124687279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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