Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change最新文献

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Variability and long‐term change in Australian monsoon rainfall: A review 澳大利亚季风降水的变率和长期变化:综述

IF 9.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Pub Date : 2023-01-23 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.823

H. Heidemann, Timothy P. Cowan, B. Henley, J. Ribbe, Mandy B. Freund, S. Power

The Australian monsoon delivers seasonal rain across a vast area of the continent stretching from the far northern tropics to the semi‐arid regions. This article provides a review of advances in Australian monsoon rainfall (AUMR) research and a supporting analysis of AUMR variability, observed trends, and future projections. AUMR displays a high degree of interannual variability with a standard deviation of approximately 34% of the mean. AUMR variability is mostly driven by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), although sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and north of Australia also play a role. Decadal AUMR variability is strongly linked to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), partially through the IPO's impact on the strength and position of the Pacific Walker Circulation and the South Pacific Convergence Zone. AUMR exhibits a century‐long positive trend, which is large (approximately 20 mm per decade) and statistically significant over northwest Australia. The cause of the observed trend is still debated. Future changes in AUMR over the next century remain uncertain due to low climate model agreement on the sign of change. Recommendations to improve the understanding of AUMR and confidence in AUMR projections are provided. This includes improving the representation of atmospheric convective processes in models, further explaining the mechanisms responsible for AUMR variability and change. Clarifying the mechanisms of AUMR variability and change would aid with creating more sustainable future agricultural systems by increasing the reliability of predictions and projections.

从遥远的北部热带地区到半干旱地区，澳大利亚季风为大陆的广大地区带来了季节性降雨。本文综述了澳大利亚季风降雨(AUMR)研究的进展，并对AUMR变率、观测趋势和未来预测进行了支持分析。AUMR表现出高度的年际变异，标准差约为平均值的34%。虽然热带印度洋和澳大利亚北部的海表温度异常也有一定作用，但AUMR的变化主要是由厄尔Niño -南方涛动(ENSO)驱动的。年代际AUMR变率与年代际太平洋涛动(IPO)密切相关，部分原因是IPO对太平洋Walker环流和南太平洋辐合带的强度和位置的影响。AUMR呈现一个世纪的正趋势，在澳大利亚西北部，这一趋势很大(每十年约20毫米)，在统计上具有显著性。所观察到的趋势的原因仍有争议。由于气候模式对变化迹象的一致性较低，下个世纪AUMR的未来变化仍不确定。并提出了提高对AUMR的理解和对AUMR预测的信心的建议。这包括改进模式中大气对流过程的表示，进一步解释造成AUMR变率和变化的机制。澄清AUMR变异和变化的机制将有助于通过提高预测和预测的可靠性来创建更可持续的未来农业系统。

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引用次数: 4

Can southern Australian rainfall decline be explained? A review of possible drivers 南澳大利亚的降雨量下降是可以解释的吗?对可能的驱动因素的回顾

IF 9.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Pub Date : 2023-01-20 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.820

R. McKay, Ghyslaine Boschat, I. Rudeva, A. Pepler, A. Purich, A. Dowdy, P. Hope, Z. E. Gillett, S. Rauniyar

Southern Australia's rainfall is highly variable and influenced by factors across scales from synoptic weather to large‐scale circulation and remote climate modes of variability. Anthropogenic climate change and natural variability modulate these factors and their interactions. However, studies often focus on changes in selected parts of the climate system with less emphasis on the system as a whole. As such, it is difficult to gain a complete understanding of how southern Australia's rainfall responds to broad‐scale changes in the climate system. We step through the existing literature on long‐term changes in synoptic‐to‐large‐scale atmospheric circulation and drivers of climate variability to form a more complete story of rainfall changes across southern Australia. This process reveals that the most robust change is the observed winter decline in rainfall as it is consistent with several changing climatic factors: decreasing rainfall from weather systems, strengthening subtropical ridge, poleward shifts in the Hadley Cell and the Southern Annular Mode, and increasing frequency of positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. In other seasons, particularly summer, changes in atmospheric circulation and drivers may not agree with observed rainfall changes, highlighting gaps in our knowledge of atmospheric dynamics and climate change processes. Future work should focus on research across temporal‐ and spatial‐scales, better understanding of jet interactions, the influence of stratospheric processes on the troposphere, and instances of contrasting trends in drivers and southern Australian rainfall changes.

澳大利亚南部的降雨量变化很大，受天气天气、大尺度环流和偏远气候变化模式等各种因素的影响。人为气候变化和自然变异调节了这些因素及其相互作用。然而，研究往往侧重于气候系统选定部分的变化，而较少关注整个系统。因此，很难完全了解澳大利亚南部的降雨如何应对气候系统的大范围变化。我们翻阅了现有的关于天气到大尺度大气环流的长期变化和气候变化驱动因素的文献，以形成一个更完整的澳大利亚南部降雨变化的故事。这一过程表明，最有力的变化是观测到的冬季降雨量下降，因为这与几个不断变化的气候因素一致：天气系统的降雨量减少、副热带高压脊增强、哈德利单元和南部环形模式向极地移动，以及印度洋偶极子正事件的频率增加。在其他季节，特别是夏季，大气环流和驱动因素的变化可能与观测到的降雨量变化不一致，这突出了我们对大气动力学和气候变化过程的了解存在差距。未来的工作应侧重于时间和空间尺度的研究，更好地了解喷流相互作用、平流层过程对对流层的影响，以及驱动因素和澳大利亚南部降雨量变化的对比趋势。

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引用次数: 6

A history of the 1.5°C target 1.5°C目标的历史

IF 9.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Pub Date : 2023-01-18 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.824

Béatrice Cointe, Hélène Guillemot

The 1.5°C target is now widely considered as the maximum acceptable limit for global warming. However, it is at once recent and, as it appears increasingly unreachable, already almost obsolete. Adopted as an aspirational target in the Paris Agreement in 2015, the 1.5°C objective originated with a political impetus within UNFCCC negotiations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) endorsed this policy‐driven target when it produced the Special Report on 1.5°C. This article highlights the continuity of the history of the 1.5°C target with that of the 2°C target, but also the differences between the two. Because the 1.5°C target considerably raises the bar on mitigation efforts, it exacerbates political tensions and ambiguities that were already latent in the 2°C target. This article retraces the emergence of the 1.5°C in diplomatic negotiations, the preparation of the IPCC Special report on 1.5°C, and the new kinds of debates they provoked among climate scientists and experts. To explain how an unreachable target became the reference for climate action, we analyze the “political calibration” of climate science and politics, which can also be described as a codependency between climate science and politics.

1.5°C的目标现在被广泛认为是全球变暖可接受的最大限度。然而，它是最近才出现的，而且由于它似乎越来越遥不可及，几乎已经过时了。2015年《巴黎协定》通过了1.5°C目标，这是一项有抱负的目标，源于《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判中的政治推动。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)在编写1.5°C特别报告时认可了这一政策驱动的目标。本文强调了1.5°C目标与2°C目标的历史连续性，以及两者之间的差异。由于1.5°C目标大大提高了减缓努力的门槛，它加剧了2°C目标中已经存在的政治紧张和模棱两可。本文回顾了1.5°C在外交谈判中的出现，IPCC关于1.5°C的特别报告的准备，以及它们在气候科学家和专家之间引发的新型辩论。为了解释一个无法实现的目标如何成为气候行动的参考，我们分析了气候科学与政治的“政治校准”，也可以描述为气候科学与政治之间的相互依赖。

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引用次数: 6

Changing behavioral responses to heat risk in a warming world: How can communication approaches be improved? 在变暖的世界中改变对热风险的行为反应:如何改进沟通方法?

IF 9.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Pub Date : 2023-01-09 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.819

Niall McLoughlin, C. Howarth, G. Shreedhar

Heat risks, such as those associated with heatwaves, are increasing in frequency, severity, and duration due to climate change. The ways in which people around the globe perceive and respond to heat risks are now of great importance to reduce a range of negative health outcomes. A growing body of literature aims to assess the factors that influence people's behaviors in relation to heat risks. This research can inform better interventions, such as improved communications approaches, that attempt to facilitate adaptive behavioral responses to such risks. This review focuses on how insights from behavioral and attitudinal studies about heat risk responses can inform communication approaches. These insights are organized into three key themes: (1) Behaviors—What types of actions can be taken by people, and what evidence is there for adaptive behavior? (2) Antecedents—Which individual and contextual factors can influence people's behaviors? (3) Communications—How can existing insights be better integrated into interventions? Aspects of communication, including the role of message characteristics, messenger, and imagery, are discussed, with examples of messages and narratives that target influential antecedents of adaptive responses to heat risks. The paper makes three important contributions. First, it organizes literature on the antecedents and behavioral responses to heat risk; second, it provides a typology of the range of heat risk behaviors; and, third, it discusses how antecedents can be integrated into communication interventions. The review concludes with a proposed agenda for research, highlighting the need for substantial testing and evaluation of heat risk communication, applying insights from the literature.

由于气候变化，与热浪相关的热风险在频率、严重程度和持续时间上都在增加。现在，全球人民认识和应对高温风险的方式对于减少一系列负面健康后果非常重要。越来越多的文献旨在评估与热风险有关的影响人们行为的因素。这项研究可以为更好的干预提供信息，例如改进沟通方法，试图促进对此类风险的适应性行为反应。这篇综述的重点是关于热风险反应的行为和态度研究如何为沟通方法提供信息。这些见解被组织成三个关键主题:(1)行为——人们可以采取什么类型的行动，适应性行为有什么证据?(2)前因——哪些个体因素和情境因素会影响人们的行为?(3)沟通——如何将现有的见解更好地整合到干预措施中?讨论了通信的各个方面，包括信息特征、信使和图像的作用，并举例说明了针对热风险适应性反应的有影响力的前因的信息和叙述。本文做出了三个重要贡献。首先，它组织了关于热风险的前因和行为反应的文献;其次，它提供了热风险行为范围的类型学;第三，它讨论了如何将先行词整合到沟通干预中。该综述最后提出了一项研究议程，强调了对热风险沟通进行大量测试和评估的必要性，并应用了文献中的见解。

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引用次数: 1

Legal culture and climate change adaptation: An agenda for research 法律文化与气候变化适应：研究议程

IF 9.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Pub Date : 2023-01-06 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.825

E. Hoddy, S. Halliday, J. Ensor, C. Wamsler, E. Boyd

While climate change adaptation research has increasingly focused on aspects of culture, a systematic treatment of the role of legal culture in how communities respond to climate risk has yet to be produced. This is despite the fact that law and legal authority are implicated in most, if not all, of the ways in which actors seek to reduce the risks posed to communities by climate change. Using a scoping review methodology, this article examines the intersection of climate change adaptation and legal culture in existing research. Overall, we find that the significance of legal culture for adaptation actions has been under‐explored. Yet, it is also clear that a focus on legal culture holds significant promise for our understanding of climate change adaptation. We set out a research agenda for the field, highlighting the ways in which a focus on legal culture may enrich existing key themes within climate change adaptation research.

尽管气候变化适应研究越来越关注文化的各个方面，但法律文化在社区应对气候风险方面的作用尚未得到系统的处理。尽管法律和法律权威参与了行为者寻求减少气候变化给社区带来的风险的大部分（如果不是全部的话）方式，但情况依然如此。本文采用范围界定审查方法，考察了现有研究中气候变化适应和法律文化的交叉点。总体而言，我们发现法律文化对适应行动的重要性尚未得到充分探讨。然而，同样显而易见的是，对法律文化的关注对我们理解气候变化适应具有重要意义。我们制定了该领域的研究议程，强调了关注法律文化可以丰富气候变化适应研究中现有的关键主题的方式。

引用次数: 0

Climate change impacts on immovable cultural heritage in polar regions: A systematic bibliometric review 气候变化对极地地区不可移动文化遗产的影响:一个系统的文献计量回顾

IF 9.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Pub Date : 2023-01-03 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.822

I. Nicu, S. Fatorić

Over the past decade, research on the impacts of climate change on immovable cultural heritage (ICH) in the polar regions (Arctic and Antarctica) has slowly increased. This article offers a systematic review and synthesis of the publications about climate change impacts on the diverse ICH and climate change adaptation in the polar regions. Gray literature was not included in the study. Arctic countries like Sweden, Finland, Iceland, and Russia, and their associated research organizations, are under‐represented in this literature when compared with the USA, Canada, Denmark, and Norway. More than half of the analyzed literature is published in the last 3 years (2019, 2020, and 2021) with a focus on coastal erosion and ICH degradation (cryospheric hazards). ICH is at risk from biological degradation, coastal erosion, debris flow, and thaw slumping. Nearly half of the studies report on the need for climate change adaptation planning and implementation for ICH. This study shows that advances in research on climate change impacts and adaptation responses are needed to improve decision‐ and policy‐maker capacity to support effective adaptation policies and to contribute to the achievement of SDGs in polar regions. The polar regions' vulnerable landscapes and ICH sites can be used to communicate a larger message about the climate change challenges and adaptation measures.

在过去十年中，气候变化对极地地区(北极和南极)不可移动文化遗产(ICH)影响的研究缓慢增加。本文对气候变化对极地非物质物质多样性影响及气候变化适应的相关文献进行了系统综述和综合。灰色文献未包括在本研究中。与美国、加拿大、丹麦和挪威相比，瑞典、芬兰、冰岛和俄罗斯等北极国家及其相关研究机构在本文献中的代表性不足。所分析的文献中有一半以上发表于过去三年(2019年、2020年和2021年)，重点关注海岸侵蚀和非物质物质退化(冰冻圈危害)。非物质物质面临着生物退化、海岸侵蚀、泥石流和融化滑坡的风险。近一半的研究报告了为非物质文化遗产制定气候变化适应规划和实施的必要性。该研究表明，需要在气候变化影响和适应响应研究方面取得进展，以提高决策者的能力，支持有效的适应政策，并有助于实现极地地区的可持续发展目标。极地地区的脆弱景观和非物质遗产可以用来传达关于气候变化挑战和适应措施的更广泛信息。

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引用次数: 8

Sino‐American competition and the future of climate cooperation 中美竞争与气候合作的未来

IF 9.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Pub Date : 2023-01-03 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.821

S. Moore

Climate change is often thought of as an issue that only cooperation can address. But growing tensions between the world's two largest emitters, the United States and China, demand that scholars contribute to a new understanding of how climate change, geopolitics, and international relations intersect. A better understanding of how competition might affect climate action by individual states, and more rigorous assessment of whether it might be helpful rather than harmful, is needed.

气候变化通常被认为是一个只有合作才能解决的问题。但世界上最大的两个排放国美国和中国之间日益加剧的紧张关系，要求学者们对气候变化、地缘政治和国际关系如何交叉做出新的理解。需要更好地了解竞争可能如何影响各个国家的气候行动，并更严格地评估竞争是否有益而非有害。

引用次数: 0

Livestock, methane, and climate change: The politics of global assessments. 畜牧业、甲烷和气候变化：全球评估的政治。

IF 9.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-05-27 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.790

Ian Scoones

The relationship between livestock production and climate change is the subject of hot debate, with arguments for major shifts in diets and a reduction in livestock production. This Perspective examines how global assessments of livestock-derived methane emissions are framed, identifying assumptions and data gaps that influence standard life-cycle analysis approaches. These include inadequate data due to a focus on industrial not extensive systems; errors arising due to inappropriate emission factors being applied; questions of how global warming potentials are derived for different greenhouse gases and debates about what baselines are appropriate. The article argues for a holistic systems approach that takes account of diverse livestock systems-both intensive and extensive-including both positive and negative impacts. In particular, the potential benefits of extensive livestock systems are highlighted, including supporting livelihoods, providing high-quality nutrition, enhancing biodiversity, protecting landscapes, and sequestering carbon. By failing to differentiate between livestock systems, global assessments may mislead. Inappropriate measurement, verification and reporting processes linked to global climate change policy may in turn result in interventions that can undermine the livelihoods of extensive livestock-keepers in marginal areas, including mobile pastoralists. In the politics of global assessments, certain interests promote framings of the livestock-climate challenge in favour of contained, intensive systems, and the conversion of extensive rangelands into conservation investments. Emerging from a narrow, aggregated scientific framing, global assessments therefore can have political consequences. A more disaggregated, nuanced approach is required if the future of food and climate change is to be effectively addressed. This article is categorized under:Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Assessing Climate Change in the Context of Other IssuesClimate and Development > Social Justice and the Politics of Development.

畜牧业生产与气候变化之间的关系是激烈辩论的主题，有人主张大幅改变饮食和减少畜牧业生产。该视角考察了牲畜甲烷排放的全球评估是如何制定的，确定了影响标准生命周期分析方法的假设和数据差距。其中包括由于关注工业而非广泛的系统而导致的数据不足；由于采用不适当的排放系数而产生的误差；关于不同温室气体的全球变暖潜能是如何得出的问题，以及关于什么样的基线是合适的争论。这篇文章主张采用一种全面的系统方法，考虑到密集和广泛的不同畜牧系统，包括积极和消极的影响。特别是，强调了广泛的畜牧系统的潜在好处，包括支持生计、提供高质量营养、增强生物多样性、保护景观和封存碳。由于未能区分畜牧系统，全球评估可能会产生误导。与全球气候变化政策相关的不适当的测量、核查和报告程序可能反过来导致干预措施，破坏边缘地区大量牲畜饲养者的生计，包括流动牧民。在全球评估的政治中，某些利益集团推动了畜牧业气候挑战的框架，支持封闭、集约的系统，并将广泛的牧场转化为保护投资。因此，全球评估从狭隘的、综合的科学框架中产生，可能会产生政治后果。如果要有效地解决粮食和气候变化的未来问题，就需要采取更加分类、细致入微的方法。本文分类为：气候变化综合评估>其他问题背景下的气候变化评估气候与发展>社会正义与发展政治。

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引用次数: 12

Issue Information 问题信息

IF 9.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.784

引用次数: 0

Limits to adaptation: Building an integrated research agenda 适应的局限性：制定综合研究议程

IF 9.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Pub Date : 2022-12-16 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.817

F. Berkhout, K. Dow

The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report Working Group II report of (2022) has brought greater attention to the issue of limits to the capacity to adapt to climate change. But the report also showed that research in the field continues to be fragmented and under‐developed, and that the problem of limits is not widely considered in policy. In this paper, we argue for a more coherent, interdisciplinary approach to research on adaptation limits, linked to the concept of transformative adaptation. A risk‐based approach to adaptation limits offers a framework to deepen, broaden and connect research which responds to the needs of policymakers. We set out four promising directions for future research on: the dimensions of limits; the dynamics of limits; formalization of research on limits; and ethics and justice challenges underpinning adaptation limits.

IPCC第六次评估报告第二工作组（2022年）的报告更加关注了适应气候变化能力的限制问题。但该报告也表明，该领域的研究仍然支离破碎，发展不足，政策中没有广泛考虑限制问题。在这篇论文中，我们主张采用一种更连贯、跨学科的方法来研究适应极限，并将其与变革性适应的概念联系起来。基于风险的适应限度方法为深化、扩大和连接研究提供了一个框架，以满足决策者的需求。我们为未来的研究提出了四个有希望的方向：极限的维度；极限的动力学；限制研究的形式化；以及构成适应限度基础的道德和司法挑战。

引用次数: 1

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