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Climate nationalisms: Beyond the binaries of good and bad nationalism 气候民族主义:超越好与坏的民族主义二元对立
IF 9.2 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.815
Prakash Kashwan, J. C. Liu, J. Das
Climate nationalism has attracted renewed interest among scholars and analysts of international climate politics, security studies, and international relations more broadly. However, the most prominent arguments about climate nationalism follow a storyline of “good nationalism” or “bad nationalism”—a “positive civic nationalism” versus a “destructive ethnic nationalism.” In this article, we review these debates by drawing on prominent strands of scholarship on climate nationalism, mapped onto three key aspects: climate securitization, political populism, and Civic nationalism. To further ground our review in real‐world politics outside of the United States and Western Europe, we offer a snapshot of climate nationalism narratives deployed by political elites in three large countries in the Asia‐Pacific: Australia, India, and China. Our review shows that considering the multiscalar, multisectoral, and global scope of climate action, it may be futile to look for a conclusive answer to the question of whether nationalism is good or bad for fostering effective and enduring transformations suitable for a climate‐changed world. Instead, we recommend a research agenda focused on investigating the myriad ways in which political and economic elites fuse discourses of nationalism with various aspects of climate politics and climate action. A proper understanding of elite interests, discourses, and strategies, in ways that account for varied national and regional political and economic contexts, we argue is crucial for a fuller understanding of how narratives of nationalism may affect climate action.
气候民族主义重新引起了国际气候政治、安全研究和国际关系的学者和分析人士的兴趣。然而,关于气候民族主义的最突出的争论遵循着“好的民族主义”或“坏的民族主义”的故事情节——“积极的公民民族主义”与“破坏性的民族主义”。在这篇文章中,我们通过借鉴气候民族主义学术研究的突出分支来回顾这些争论,并将其映射到三个关键方面:气候证券化、政治民粹主义和公民民族主义。为了进一步将我们的研究立足于美国和西欧以外的现实世界政治,我们简要介绍了亚太地区三个大国(澳大利亚、印度和中国)的政治精英所采用的气候民族主义叙事。我们的回顾表明,考虑到气候行动的多尺度、多部门和全球范围,寻找民族主义对于促进适合气候变化世界的有效和持久转型是好是坏的问题的结论性答案可能是徒劳的。相反,我们建议制定一个研究议程,重点研究政治和经济精英将民族主义话语与气候政治和气候行动的各个方面融合在一起的无数方式。我们认为,正确理解精英的利益、话语和战略,以解释不同国家和地区的政治和经济背景,对于更全面地理解民族主义叙事如何影响气候行动至关重要。
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引用次数: 2
New perspectives on historical climatology 历史气候学的新视角
IF 9.2 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.808
S. White, Qing Pei, Katrin Kleemann, L. Dolák, Heli Huhtamaa, C. Camenisch
Historical climatology is an interdisciplinary field of research encompassing the reconstruction of past climate and weather from written sources and artifacts, as well the application of climate reconstructions to the study of human history. Historical climatology has grown in recent years, and this growth has brought both insights and challenges. Research has expanded into new regions and periods and diversified into novel sources, methods, and interdisciplinary collaborations. At the same time, the heterogeneity of evidence and approaches has complicated the integration of multiple climate and weather reconstructions. Moreover, the diversity of disciplinary perspectives, terminologies, and perspectives can create miscommunication among scholars in the field, particularly on issues of historical knowledge and causation. Innovative approaches in the field, including Bayesian methods, may help address these challenges.
历史气候学是一个跨学科的研究领域,包括从书面资料和人工制品中重建过去的气候和天气,以及将气候重建应用于人类历史研究。历史气候学近年来不断发展,这种发展带来了深刻的见解和挑战。研究已经扩展到新的地区和时期,并多样化为新的来源、方法和跨学科合作。与此同时,证据和方法的异质性使多种气候和天气重建的整合变得复杂。此外,学科视角、术语和视角的多样性可能会在该领域的学者之间造成误解,尤其是在历史知识和因果关系问题上。该领域的创新方法,包括贝叶斯方法,可能有助于解决这些挑战。
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引用次数: 4
Agent‐based modeling to integrate elements from different disciplines for ambitious climate policy 基于Agent的建模,整合不同学科的元素,制定雄心勃勃的气候政策
IF 9.2 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-27 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.811
I. Savin, F. Creutzig, T. Filatova, Joël Foramitti, T. Konc, Leila Niamir, Karolina Safarzynska, J. C. van den Bergh
Ambitious climate mitigation policies face social and political resistance. One reason is that existing policies insufficiently capture the diversity of relevant insights from the social sciences about potential policy outcomes. We argue that agent‐based models can serve as a powerful tool for integration of elements from different disciplines. Having such a common platform will enable a more complete assessment of climate policies, in terms of criteria like effectiveness, equity and public support.
雄心勃勃的气候减缓政策面临社会和政治阻力。一个原因是,现有政策未能充分捕捉到社会科学对潜在政策结果的各种相关见解。我们认为基于智能体的模型可以作为整合不同学科元素的强大工具。有了这样一个共同的平台,就可以在有效性、公平性和公众支持等标准方面对气候政策进行更全面的评估。
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引用次数: 8
COP26 and the dynamics of anti‐fossil fuel norms COP26与反化石燃料规范的动态
IF 9.2 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-17 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.816
H. van Asselt, Fergus Green
Notwithstanding the clear contribution of fossil fuel production and consumption to global greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuels have remained largely outside the focus of the international regime established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The 2021 Glasgow Climate Change Conference (COP26) marked an important change, however, with fossil fuels featuring prominently in the intergovernmental negotiations as well as on the side‐lines of the conference. Here we discuss these developments as a site for contestations around “anti‐fossil fuel norms.” We argue that anti‐fossil fuel norms are increasingly being adopted and institutionalized. However, ongoing contestation among proponents and opponents of measures to tackle fossil fuels raises important questions over the specific content of emerging norms, the role of the fossil fuel industry in climate governance, the extent to which these norms “fit” with their broader normative context, and the conditions of North–South cooperation in which such norms are to be implemented.
尽管化石燃料生产和消费对全球温室气体排放有着明显的贡献,但化石燃料在很大程度上仍然不在《联合国气候变化框架公约》建立的国际制度的重点范围内。然而,2021年格拉斯哥气候变化大会(COP26)标志着一个重要的变化,化石燃料在政府间谈判和会议的次要议题中都占有重要地位。在这里,我们讨论了这些发展,作为围绕“反化石燃料规范”进行辩论的场所。我们认为,反化石燃料的规范越来越多地被采用和制度化。然而,应对化石燃料措施的支持者和反对者之间的持续争论引发了一些重要问题,包括新兴规范的具体内容、化石燃料行业在气候治理中的作用、这些规范在多大程度上与其更广泛的规范背景“相适应”,以及实施这些规范的南北合作条件。
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引用次数: 7
Social tipping points everywhere?—Patterns and risks of overuse 社会转折点无处不在?-过度使用的模式和风险
IF 9.2 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-17 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.813
M. Milkoreit
The last few years have witnessed an explosion of interest in the concept of social tipping points (STPs), understood as nonlinear processes of transformative change in social systems. A growing body of interdisciplinary scholarship has been focusing in particular on social tipping related to climate change. In contrast with tipping point studies in the natural sciences–for example climate tipping points and ecological regime shifts–STPs are often conceptualized as desirable, offering potential solutions to pressing problems. Drawing on a well‐established definition for tipping points, and a qualitative review of articles that explicitly treat social tipping points as potential solutions to climate change, this article identifies four deleterious patterns in the application of the STP concept in this recent wave of research on nonlinear social change: (i) premature labeling, (ii) not defining system boundaries and scales of analysis, (iii) not providing evidence for all characteristics of tipping processes, and (iv) not making use of existing social theories of change. Jointly, these patterns create a trend of overusing the concept. Recognizing and avoiding these patterns of “seeing the world through tipping point glasses” is important for the quality of scientific knowledge generated in this young field of inquiry and for future science‐policy interactions related to climate change. Future research should seek to identify empirical evidence for STPs while remaining open to the possibility that many social change processes are not instances of tipping, or that certain systems might not be prone to nonlinear change.
过去几年,人们对社会临界点概念的兴趣激增,社会临界点被理解为社会系统变革的非线性过程。越来越多的跨学科学者特别关注与气候变化相关的社会倾斜问题。与自然科学中的临界点研究(例如气候临界点和生态制度转变)相比,STP通常被认为是可取的,为紧迫问题提供了潜在的解决方案。根据对临界点的既定定义,以及对明确将社会临界点视为气候变化潜在解决方案的文章的定性审查,本文确定了在最近这一波非线性社会变化研究中应用STP概念的四种有害模式:(i)过早贴标签,(ii)没有定义系统边界和分析尺度,(iii)没有为倾翻过程的所有特征提供证据,以及(iv)没有利用现有的社会变革理论。这些模式共同造成了过度使用这一概念的趋势。认识和避免这些“用临界点眼镜看世界”的模式,对于这一年轻的研究领域产生的科学知识的质量以及未来与气候变化相关的科学政策互动至关重要。未来的研究应该寻求确定STP的经验证据,同时对许多社会变化过程不是倾斜的例子,或者某些系统可能不容易发生非线性变化的可能性持开放态度。
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引用次数: 7
Antarctica's vegetation in a changing climate 气候变化中的南极洲植被
IF 9.2 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-16 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.810
C. Colesie, Charlotte V. Walshaw, L. Sancho, M. P. Davey, Andrew Gray
Antarctica plays a central role in regulating global climatic and oceanographic patterns and is an integral part of global climate change discussions. The functioning of Antarctica's terrestrial ecosystems is dominated by poikilohydric cryptogams such as lichens, bryophytes, eukaryotic algae, and cyanobacteria and there are only two native species of vascular plants. Antarctica's vegetation is highly adapted to the region's extreme conditions but, at the same time, it is potentially highly susceptible to climatic fluctuations. Biological responses to shifts in temperature, water availability, wind patterns, snow, and ice cover are complex, taxa‐specific and act on different temporal and spatial scales. In maritime Antarctica, where warming and mass loss of outlet glaciers have been mainly observed, the vegetation is expected to show increases in productivity, abundance, and cover. In continental Antarctica, observational and experimental evidence is still sparse, but it is pointing toward even drier and harsher conditions for survival. We need more information on what the observed and predicted changes in Antarctic vegetation are for different regions and ecosystems. This will inform us how environmental change and human impact will shape the future of these ecosystems, and whether the speed and magnitude of change have habitat‐specific effects and implications. Antarctica's unique ecosystems are changing and in this review, we describe the current situation, tools to measure, and evaluate change and how change is likely to look in the future.
南极洲在调节全球气候和海洋学格局方面发挥着核心作用,是全球气候变化讨论的一个组成部分。南极陆地生态系统的功能主要由地衣、苔藓植物、真核藻类和蓝藻等多水隐生植物主导,本土维管植物只有两种。南极洲的植被高度适应该地区的极端条件,但与此同时,它可能极易受到气候波动的影响。对温度、水分供应、风型、积雪和冰盖变化的生物响应是复杂的,具有分类群特异性,并在不同的时空尺度上起作用。在南极海域,主要观测到的是变暖和冰川出口的质量损失,预计植被的生产力、丰度和覆盖率将有所增加。在南极洲大陆,观测和实验证据仍然很少,但它指向更干燥、更严酷的生存条件。我们需要更多关于观测到的和预测的南极植被变化对不同地区和生态系统的影响的信息。这将告诉我们环境变化和人类影响将如何塑造这些生态系统的未来,以及变化的速度和幅度是否具有特定栖息地的影响和影响。南极洲独特的生态系统正在发生变化,在这篇综述中,我们描述了目前的情况、测量和评估变化的工具以及未来可能发生的变化。
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引用次数: 12
Computational methods for the analysis of climate change communication: Towards an integrative and reflexive approach 气候变化传播分析的计算方法:走向综合和反射的方法
IF 9.2 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-05 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.806
Mike S. Schäfer, V. Hase
Computational methods, in particular text‐as‐data or Natural Language Processing (NLP) approaches, have become popular to study climate change communication as a global and large‐scale phenomenon. Scholars have discussed opportunities and challenges of these methods for climate change communication, with some proponents and critics taking strong positions, either embracing the potential of computational methods or critically questioning their value. Mirroring developments in the broader social scientific debate, we aim to bring both sides together by proposing a reflexive, integrative approach for computational research on climate change communication: We reflect on strengths (e.g., making data big and small, nowcasting observations) and weaknesses (e.g., introducing empiricist epistemologies, ignoring biases) of computational approaches. Moreover, we also provide concrete and constructive guidance on when and how to integrate (or not integrate) these methods based on theoretical considerations. We thereby understand computational methods as part of an ever‐increasing, diverse toolbox for analyzing climate change communication.
计算方法,特别是文本作为数据或自然语言处理(NLP)方法,已成为研究气候变化传播这一全球性和大规模现象的流行方法。学者们讨论了这些方法在气候变化沟通中的机遇和挑战,一些支持者和批评者持强硬立场,要么接受计算方法的潜力,要么批判性地质疑其价值。根据更广泛的社会科学辩论的发展,我们旨在通过提出一种反射性的、综合性的气候变化通信计算研究方法,将双方团结在一起:我们反思计算方法的优势(例如,大数据和小数据,实时观测)和劣势(例如,引入经验主义认识论,忽略偏见)。此外,我们还基于理论考虑,就何时以及如何整合(或不整合)这些方法提供了具体和建设性的指导。因此,我们将计算方法理解为分析气候变化通信的不断增加的多样化工具箱的一部分。
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引用次数: 4
Leaking the IPCC: A question of responsibility? 泄露IPCC:责任问题?
IF 9.2 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.814
Friederike Hartz
In August 2021, while the world was grappling with the release of the IPCC WGI report, a group of activist scientists called Scientist Rebellion leaked parts of the Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) prior to intergovernmental approval. Although Scientist Rebellion are not the first to leak an IPCC report, they are the most vocal leaker with a particular political agenda: to generate disruptive climate action by curtailing the carefully orchestrated intergovernmental process of the IPCC. I take this case of science in activism involving the IPCC interface as an example to examine the increasingly intricate relationship between science, activism and responsibility. The salient sense of urgency around climate action, the growing prevalence of the climate crisis narrative in both public and scientific spheres, and the increased policy‐relevance of science‐policy interfaces put strong pressures on (climate) scientists that need to be disentangled to be understood without premature judgment. I show that the leak is symptomatic of the novel responsibility to act(ivism) scientists are increasingly confronted with and I highlight some of the tensions that come with this responsibility. Emphasizing the centrality of the question of responsibility in, and of, science, I discuss the (ir)responsibility of leaking IPCC draft materials. I end on a call for more interdisciplinary attentiveness to the nexus of science, activism and responsibility and the cases in which they become entangled.
2021年8月,当全世界都在努力应对IPCC WGI报告的发布时,一群名为“科学家反抗”的激进科学家在政府间批准之前泄露了第三工作组对第六次评估报告(AR6)的部分贡献。尽管科学家反抗军并不是第一个泄露IPCC报告的人,但他们是最直言不讳的泄密者,有着特殊的政治议程:通过削弱IPCC精心策划的政府间进程来引发破坏性的气候行动。我以涉及IPCC接口的激进主义中的科学为例,研究科学、激进主义和责任之间日益复杂的关系。气候行动的紧迫感突出,气候危机叙事在公共和科学领域越来越普遍,以及科学与政策接口的政策相关性增加,给(气候)科学家带来了巨大的压力,他们需要理清思路,在不过早判断的情况下理解。我表明,此次泄漏是科学家们日益面临的新的行动责任(ivism)的症状,我强调了这一责任带来的一些紧张关系。强调责任问题在科学中的中心地位,我讨论了泄露IPCC草案材料的责任。最后,我呼吁跨学科更多地关注科学、行动主义和责任的关系,以及它们纠缠在一起的案例。
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引用次数: 5
Unseen urgency: Delay as the new denial 未知的紧迫性:延迟作为新的拒绝
IF 9.2 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.809
H. Shue
The scientific grounds for the urgency of action to limit climate change are relatively well‐understood. Much less well appreciated, however, are the contingent, but nevertheless profound, political reasons for the urgency of immediate robust action. Most important is the fact, insufficiently appreciated by many normative and economic theorists, that some of the most powerful and wealthy political institutions and economic organizations on the planet are firmly committed to delaying effective action on climate change as long as possible so that they can retain and enhance their current wealth and power resting on fossil fuel assets. Ruthless and entrenched opponents resist actions to slow climate change, and delay is the new denial. The deception practiced by those whose vast wealth and power depends on slowing the transition away from the combustion of fossil fuels necessitates the building of social movements and political campaigns to expose their falsehoods and diversions and to explain and justify transformative alternatives to potentially active citizens. The opponents of climate action have been active for decades and have built powerful political coalitions. The supporters of climate action need to confront them urgently with yet more powerful political coalitions because the remaining time for winning the struggle is shrinking fast. Action is urgent because deceptive delay is relentless.
限制气候变化行动的紧迫性的科学依据相对而言是众所周知的。然而,迫切需要立即采取有力行动的偶然但深刻的政治原因远没有得到充分的重视。最重要的是,许多规范和经济理论家没有充分认识到,地球上一些最强大、最富有的政治机构和经济组织坚定地致力于尽可能长时间地推迟对气候变化的有效行动,以便他们能够保留和增强目前依靠化石燃料资产的财富和权力。无情而根深蒂固的反对者抵制减缓气候变化的行动,而拖延是新的否认。那些庞大的财富和权力依赖于减缓从化石燃料燃烧的过渡的人所实施的欺骗,需要建立社会运动和政治运动,揭露他们的谎言和转移注意力,并解释和证明潜在活跃公民的变革性替代方案是合理的。气候行动的反对者几十年来一直很活跃,并建立了强大的政治联盟。气候行动的支持者迫切需要与更强大的政治联盟对抗,因为赢得这场斗争的剩余时间正在迅速缩短。行动是紧迫的,因为欺骗性的拖延是无情的。
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引用次数: 2
Storylistening: How narrative evidence can improve public reasoning about climate change 讲故事:叙事证据如何改善公众对气候变化的推理
IF 9.2 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.812
Sarah Dillon, C. Craig
Stories have cognitive value—listened to carefully and expertly, they provide knowledge. That knowledge is captured and presented in narrative evidence—the product of the expert act of critical engagement with stories, and with others' engagement with stories. Storylistening is the theory and practice of gathering narrative evidence to inform decision‐making, especially in relation to public reasoning, as part of a pluralistic evidence base. Storylistening is necessary to counter the political deployment of partial, selective, or misinterpreted narrative evidence. There are four ways in which stories can contribute to public reasoning about climate change. Stories play a role in reframing the “idea” of climate change, as well as being integral to many of the new disciplines, perspectives and knowledges drawn in as relevant by that reframing. Stories create and cohere collective identities and climate change beliefs and behavior. Narrative models complement and supplement computational models, creating an ensemble of models that more adequately covers the gaps that result from only deploying big, global, generalized models. Stories play a crucial role in enabling better anticipation for decision‐making, and storylistening can enable the use of narrative evidence from narrative futures methods, as well as perhaps improve the ways scientific evidence about the future is also listened to. Incorporating storylistening into public reasoning about climate change requires the evolution of advisory systems and of the academic humanities, and can play a role in the urgent need to democratize public reasoning about climate change.
故事具有认知价值——仔细而熟练地听,它们提供了知识。这些知识被捕捉并呈现在叙事证据中——这是专家对故事和他人对故事的批判性参与的产物。故事倾听是收集叙事证据以为决策提供信息的理论和实践,尤其是与公共推理有关的证据,作为多元证据基础的一部分。听故事是必要的,以对抗部分、选择性或误解的叙事证据的政治部署。故事有四种方式可以帮助公众对气候变化进行推理。故事在重新定义气候变化的“理念”方面发挥着作用,也是许多新学科、新视角和新知识的组成部分。故事创造并凝聚了集体身份、气候变化信仰和行为。叙述模型补充和补充了计算模型,创建了一个模型集合,更充分地弥补了仅部署大型、全局、通用模型所造成的差距。故事在更好地预测决策方面发挥着至关重要的作用,故事倾听可以使用叙事未来方法中的叙事证据,并可能改善关于未来的科学证据的倾听方式。将故事倾听纳入关于气候变化的公共推理需要咨询系统和学术人文学科的发展,并且可以在迫切需要民主化关于气候变化公共推理方面发挥作用。
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引用次数: 1
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Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
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