Pub Date : 2022-05-01Epub Date: 2022-01-23DOI: 10.1002/wcc.761
Elisa Savelli, Maria Rusca, Hannah Cloke, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Human activities have increasingly intensified the severity, frequency, and negative impacts of droughts in several regions across the world. This trend has led to broader scientific conceptualizations of drought risk that account for human actions and their interplays with natural systems. This review focuses on physical and engineering sciences to examine the way and extent to which these disciplines account for social processes in relation to the production and distribution of drought risk. We conclude that this research has significantly progressed in terms of recognizing the role of humans in reshaping drought risk and its socioenvironmental impacts. We note an increasing engagement with and contribution to understanding vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation patterns. Moreover, by advancing (socio)hydrological models, developing numerical indexes, and enhancing data processing, physical and engineering scientists have determined the extent of human influences in the propagation of drought hazard. However, these studies do not fully capture the complexities of anthropogenic transformations. Very often, they portray society as homogeneous, and decision-making processes as apolitical, thereby concealing the power relations underlying the production of drought and the uneven distribution of its impacts. The resistance in engaging explicitly with politics and social power-despite their major role in producing anthropogenic drought-can be attributed to the strong influence of positivist epistemologies in engineering and physical sciences. We suggest that an active engagement with critical social sciences can further theorizations of drought risk by shedding light on the structural and historical systems of power that engender every socioenvironmental transformation. This article is categorized under:Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives.
{"title":"Drought and society: Scientific progress, blind spots, and future prospects.","authors":"Elisa Savelli, Maria Rusca, Hannah Cloke, Giuliano Di Baldassarre","doi":"10.1002/wcc.761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.761","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Human activities have increasingly intensified the severity, frequency, and negative impacts of droughts in several regions across the world. This trend has led to broader scientific conceptualizations of drought risk that account for human actions and their interplays with natural systems. This review focuses on physical and engineering sciences to examine the way and extent to which these disciplines account for social processes in relation to the production and distribution of drought risk. We conclude that this research has significantly progressed in terms of recognizing the role of humans in reshaping drought risk and its socioenvironmental impacts. We note an increasing engagement with and contribution to understanding vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation patterns. Moreover, by advancing (socio)hydrological models, developing numerical indexes, and enhancing data processing, physical and engineering scientists have determined the extent of human influences in the propagation of drought hazard. However, these studies do not fully capture the complexities of anthropogenic transformations. Very often, they portray society as homogeneous, and decision-making processes as apolitical, thereby concealing the power relations underlying the production of drought and the uneven distribution of its impacts. The resistance in engaging explicitly with politics and social power-despite their major role in producing anthropogenic drought-can be attributed to the strong influence of positivist epistemologies in engineering and physical sciences. We suggest that an active engagement with critical social sciences can further theorizations of drought risk by shedding light on the structural and historical systems of power that engender every socioenvironmental transformation. This article is categorized under:Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives.</p>","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":"13 3","pages":"e761"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/bd/c5/WCC-13-0.PMC9286479.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40615370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
How will the theories and practices of democracy fare in a climate changing world? Are conventional democratic institutions ultimately doomed or are they able to become more responsive to a changing climate? Is there a need to reimagine democracy and how might it be reimagined? This article reviews the different responses to these questions by distinguishing between three “political imaginaries” in which the relationship between climate change and democracy takes distinct forms. I start by showing how the concept of “political imaginaries” can facilitate the comparison of the different ways in which the relation between democracy and climate change is constructed, before reviewing three such imaginaries. The skeptical imaginary, found in the “eco‐authoritarianism” of the 1970s that is echoed by much sociopolitical analysis today, casts doubt on the possibilities of democratic mechanisms to respond adequately and swiftly to the problem of climate change. Those who resist such skepticism often defend democracy by arguing that institutions and processes of democracy can be made more “ecologically rational”—the rational imaginary of climate democracy involves improvements in political representation and participation. Finally, I present the alternative radical democratic imaginary, in which the crisis of climate change provides a moment for the rupture of existing sociopolitical structures and the formation of alternatives. The article concludes that although none of these imaginaries is able to capture the entirety of climate change politics around the world, the radical democratic imaginary is responsive to the inevitable and valuable plurality around the issue of climate change.
{"title":"Climates of democracy: Skeptical, rational, and radical imaginaries","authors":"A. Machin","doi":"10.1002/wcc.774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.774","url":null,"abstract":"How will the theories and practices of democracy fare in a climate changing world? Are conventional democratic institutions ultimately doomed or are they able to become more responsive to a changing climate? Is there a need to reimagine democracy and how might it be reimagined? This article reviews the different responses to these questions by distinguishing between three “political imaginaries” in which the relationship between climate change and democracy takes distinct forms. I start by showing how the concept of “political imaginaries” can facilitate the comparison of the different ways in which the relation between democracy and climate change is constructed, before reviewing three such imaginaries. The skeptical imaginary, found in the “eco‐authoritarianism” of the 1970s that is echoed by much sociopolitical analysis today, casts doubt on the possibilities of democratic mechanisms to respond adequately and swiftly to the problem of climate change. Those who resist such skepticism often defend democracy by arguing that institutions and processes of democracy can be made more “ecologically rational”—the rational imaginary of climate democracy involves improvements in political representation and participation. Finally, I present the alternative radical democratic imaginary, in which the crisis of climate change provides a moment for the rupture of existing sociopolitical structures and the formation of alternatives. The article concludes that although none of these imaginaries is able to capture the entirety of climate change politics around the world, the radical democratic imaginary is responsive to the inevitable and valuable plurality around the issue of climate change.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2022-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45201013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T. Matthews, M. Byrne, R. Horton, C. Murphy, R. Pielke, Colin Raymond, P. Thorne, R. Wilby
Anthropogenic forcing is driving energy accumulation in the Earth system, including increases in the sensible heat content of the atmosphere, as measured by dry‐bulb temperature—the metric that is almost universally used for communications about climate change. The atmosphere is also moistening, though, representing an accumulation of latent heat, which is partly concealed by dry‐bulb temperature trends. We highlight that, consistent with basic theory, latent heat gains are outpacing sensible heat gains over about half of the Earth's surface. The difference is largest in the tropics, where global “hotspots” of total heat accumulation are located, and where regional disparities in heating rates are very poorly represented by dry‐bulb temperatures. Including latent heat in climate‐change metrics captures this heat accumulation and therefore improves adaptation‐relevant understanding of the extreme humid heat and precipitation hazards that threaten these latitudes so acutely. For example, irrigation can lower peak dry‐bulb temperatures, but amplify latent heat content by a larger margin, intensifying dangerous heat stress. Based on a review of the research literature, our Perspective therefore calls for routine use of equivalent temperature, a measure that expresses the combined sensible and latent heat content of the atmosphere in the familiar units of °C or K. We recognize that dry‐bulb air temperature must remain a key indicator of the atmospheric state, not least for the many sectors that are sensitive to sensible heat transfer. However, we assert here that more widespread use of equivalent temperature could improve process understanding, public messaging, and adaptation to climate change.
{"title":"Latent heat must be visible in climate communications","authors":"T. Matthews, M. Byrne, R. Horton, C. Murphy, R. Pielke, Colin Raymond, P. Thorne, R. Wilby","doi":"10.1002/wcc.779","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.779","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic forcing is driving energy accumulation in the Earth system, including increases in the sensible heat content of the atmosphere, as measured by dry‐bulb temperature—the metric that is almost universally used for communications about climate change. The atmosphere is also moistening, though, representing an accumulation of latent heat, which is partly concealed by dry‐bulb temperature trends. We highlight that, consistent with basic theory, latent heat gains are outpacing sensible heat gains over about half of the Earth's surface. The difference is largest in the tropics, where global “hotspots” of total heat accumulation are located, and where regional disparities in heating rates are very poorly represented by dry‐bulb temperatures. Including latent heat in climate‐change metrics captures this heat accumulation and therefore improves adaptation‐relevant understanding of the extreme humid heat and precipitation hazards that threaten these latitudes so acutely. For example, irrigation can lower peak dry‐bulb temperatures, but amplify latent heat content by a larger margin, intensifying dangerous heat stress. Based on a review of the research literature, our Perspective therefore calls for routine use of equivalent temperature, a measure that expresses the combined sensible and latent heat content of the atmosphere in the familiar units of °C or K. We recognize that dry‐bulb air temperature must remain a key indicator of the atmospheric state, not least for the many sectors that are sensitive to sensible heat transfer. However, we assert here that more widespread use of equivalent temperature could improve process understanding, public messaging, and adaptation to climate change.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2022-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42912621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Independent evidence from Europe and Asia shows that tree‐ring stable isotopes can reveal persistent long‐term hydroclimate trends that are generally not captured by more traditional dendroclimatic studies using tree‐ring width or density. Since the recently observed long‐term discrepancy between flatter “growth‐dependent” and more varying “growth‐independent” climate proxy data is unrelated to possible biases of statistical age‐trend removal, I call for a conceptual rethinking of the predictive power of different tree‐ring parameters for reconstructing climate variability on interannual to multimillennial timescales. I describe why traditional “growth‐dependent” tree‐ring width and wood density measurements usually lack abiotic signals on ultra‐long timescales, whereas “growth‐independent” carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios from tree‐ring cellulose can capture environmental variation well beyond the segment length of individual tree‐ring samples. Caution is therefore advised when information from diverse tree‐ring parameters is combined in multiproxy reconstructions of Holocene climate that aim to reflect the full range of interannual to multimillennial variability. This Perspective not only emphasizes the paleoclimatic value that can be obtained from tree‐ring stable isotopes in living and relict wood. It also stresses the need for developing new high‐resolution isotopic datasets from different species and regions in both hemispheres to supplement the existing tree‐ring record.
{"title":"Scrutinizing tree‐ring parameters for Holocene climate reconstructions","authors":"U. Büntgen","doi":"10.1002/wcc.778","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.778","url":null,"abstract":"Independent evidence from Europe and Asia shows that tree‐ring stable isotopes can reveal persistent long‐term hydroclimate trends that are generally not captured by more traditional dendroclimatic studies using tree‐ring width or density. Since the recently observed long‐term discrepancy between flatter “growth‐dependent” and more varying “growth‐independent” climate proxy data is unrelated to possible biases of statistical age‐trend removal, I call for a conceptual rethinking of the predictive power of different tree‐ring parameters for reconstructing climate variability on interannual to multimillennial timescales. I describe why traditional “growth‐dependent” tree‐ring width and wood density measurements usually lack abiotic signals on ultra‐long timescales, whereas “growth‐independent” carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios from tree‐ring cellulose can capture environmental variation well beyond the segment length of individual tree‐ring samples. Caution is therefore advised when information from diverse tree‐ring parameters is combined in multiproxy reconstructions of Holocene climate that aim to reflect the full range of interannual to multimillennial variability. This Perspective not only emphasizes the paleoclimatic value that can be obtained from tree‐ring stable isotopes in living and relict wood. It also stresses the need for developing new high‐resolution isotopic datasets from different species and regions in both hemispheres to supplement the existing tree‐ring record.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42431748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In an integrated global economy, trade policy and climate policy are closely intertwined. This paper adopts an interdisciplinary approach to provide an overview of the key debates in economics, political science, and legal studies related to globalization and climate change. We identify a number of emerging issues that deserve increased attention in future research in this direction. These include international financial flows, migration, telecommunication, and digitization as well as changing lifestyles and consumption patterns across the globe. We also present potential research question regarding the diversification of import and export portfolios in the face of growing climate impacts and the decarbonization of industry, aviation, and shipping. Finally, we discuss how these recent developments could shape trade and climate policy formulation. We conclude that ambitious climate policies seem more likely to flourish in an open world trading system which provides sufficient flexibility for individual countries to adopt nationally appropriate climate policies.
{"title":"Globalization and climate change: State of knowledge, emerging issues, and policy implications","authors":"Michael Jakob","doi":"10.1002/wcc.771","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.771","url":null,"abstract":"In an integrated global economy, trade policy and climate policy are closely intertwined. This paper adopts an interdisciplinary approach to provide an overview of the key debates in economics, political science, and legal studies related to globalization and climate change. We identify a number of emerging issues that deserve increased attention in future research in this direction. These include international financial flows, migration, telecommunication, and digitization as well as changing lifestyles and consumption patterns across the globe. We also present potential research question regarding the diversification of import and export portfolios in the face of growing climate impacts and the decarbonization of industry, aviation, and shipping. Finally, we discuss how these recent developments could shape trade and climate policy formulation. We conclude that ambitious climate policies seem more likely to flourish in an open world trading system which provides sufficient flexibility for individual countries to adopt nationally appropriate climate policies.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45482925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Adapting to some level of climate change has become unavoidable. However, there is surprisingly limited systematic knowledge about whether and how adaptation policies have diffused and could diffuse in the future. Most existing adaptation studies do not explicitly examine policy diffusion, which is a form of interdependent policy‐making among jurisdictions at the same or across different levels of governance. To address this gap, we offer a new interpretation and assessment of the extensive adaptation policy literature through a policy diffusion perspective; we pay specific attention to diffusion drivers and barriers, motivations, mechanisms, outputs, and outcomes. We assess the extent to which four motivations and related mechanisms of policy diffusion—interests (linked with learning and competition), rights and duties (tied to coercion), ideology, and recognition (both connected with emulation)—are conceptually and empirically associated with adaptation. We also engage with adaptation policy characteristics, contextual conditions (e.g., problem severity) and different channels of adaptation policy diffusion (e.g., transnational networks). We demonstrate that adaptation policy diffusion can be associated with different mechanisms, yet many of them remain remarkably understudied. So are the effects of adaptation policy diffusion in terms of changes in vulnerability and resilience. We thus identify manifold avenues for future research, and provide insights for practitioners who may hope to leverage diffusion mechanisms to enhance their adaptation efforts.
{"title":"The diffusion of climate change adaptation policy","authors":"J. Schoenefeld, K. Schulze, Nils Bruch","doi":"10.1002/wcc.775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.775","url":null,"abstract":"Adapting to some level of climate change has become unavoidable. However, there is surprisingly limited systematic knowledge about whether and how adaptation policies have diffused and could diffuse in the future. Most existing adaptation studies do not explicitly examine policy diffusion, which is a form of interdependent policy‐making among jurisdictions at the same or across different levels of governance. To address this gap, we offer a new interpretation and assessment of the extensive adaptation policy literature through a policy diffusion perspective; we pay specific attention to diffusion drivers and barriers, motivations, mechanisms, outputs, and outcomes. We assess the extent to which four motivations and related mechanisms of policy diffusion—interests (linked with learning and competition), rights and duties (tied to coercion), ideology, and recognition (both connected with emulation)—are conceptually and empirically associated with adaptation. We also engage with adaptation policy characteristics, contextual conditions (e.g., problem severity) and different channels of adaptation policy diffusion (e.g., transnational networks). We demonstrate that adaptation policy diffusion can be associated with different mechanisms, yet many of them remain remarkably understudied. So are the effects of adaptation policy diffusion in terms of changes in vulnerability and resilience. We thus identify manifold avenues for future research, and provide insights for practitioners who may hope to leverage diffusion mechanisms to enhance their adaptation efforts.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46701913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Urban climatology and environmental justice frequently share the same research site: the city. However, they study urban areas in distinct ways. Urban climatology has contributed to a better understanding of the urban boundary and canopy layer climates by embracing a broader and deeper investigation of the atmospheric and climatic specificities of the cities. Environmental justice has contributed a better understanding of how the poor and people of color are disproportionally affected by environmental problems. I argue here that we need both fields to fully understand urban climates because they are shaped both by legacies of colonialism, and race, gender, and class, and by the particularities of urban energy budgets and the variation in intra‐urban air quality and thermal‐hygrometric characteristics they drive. Critical physical geography can provide important analytical, theoretical, and methodological tools to help urban climatologists and environmental justice scholars work together toward the goal of social and environmental transformation.
{"title":"A call for a critical urban climatology: Lessons from critical physical geography","authors":"Núbia Beray‐Armond","doi":"10.1002/wcc.773","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.773","url":null,"abstract":"Urban climatology and environmental justice frequently share the same research site: the city. However, they study urban areas in distinct ways. Urban climatology has contributed to a better understanding of the urban boundary and canopy layer climates by embracing a broader and deeper investigation of the atmospheric and climatic specificities of the cities. Environmental justice has contributed a better understanding of how the poor and people of color are disproportionally affected by environmental problems. I argue here that we need both fields to fully understand urban climates because they are shaped both by legacies of colonialism, and race, gender, and class, and by the particularities of urban energy budgets and the variation in intra‐urban air quality and thermal‐hygrometric characteristics they drive. Critical physical geography can provide important analytical, theoretical, and methodological tools to help urban climatologists and environmental justice scholars work together toward the goal of social and environmental transformation.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43294168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In‐depth understanding of the potential implications of climate change is required to guide decision‐ and policy‐makers when developing adaptation strategies and designing infrastructure suitable for future conditions. Impact models that translate potential future climate conditions into variables of interest are needed to create the causal connection between a changing climate and its impact for different sectors. Recent surveys suggest that the primary strategy for validating such models (and hence for justifying their use) heavily relies on assessing the accuracy of model simulations by comparing them against historical observations. We argue that such a comparison is necessary and valuable, but not sufficient to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models. We believe that a complementary, largely observation‐independent, step of model evaluation is needed to ensure more transparency of model behavior and greater robustness of scenario‐based analyses. This step should address the following four questions: (1) Do modeled dominant process controls match our system perception? (2) Is my model's sensitivity to changing forcing as expected? (3) Do modeled decision levers show adequate influence? (4) Can we attribute uncertainty sources throughout the projection horizon? We believe that global sensitivity analysis, with its ability to investigate a model's response to joint variations of multiple inputs in a structured way, offers a coherent approach to address all four questions comprehensively. Such additional model evaluation would strengthen stakeholder confidence in model projections and, therefore, into the adaptation strategies derived with the help of impact models.
{"title":"On the evaluation of climate change impact models","authors":"T. Wagener, R. Reinecke, F. Pianosi","doi":"10.1002/wcc.772","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.772","url":null,"abstract":"In‐depth understanding of the potential implications of climate change is required to guide decision‐ and policy‐makers when developing adaptation strategies and designing infrastructure suitable for future conditions. Impact models that translate potential future climate conditions into variables of interest are needed to create the causal connection between a changing climate and its impact for different sectors. Recent surveys suggest that the primary strategy for validating such models (and hence for justifying their use) heavily relies on assessing the accuracy of model simulations by comparing them against historical observations. We argue that such a comparison is necessary and valuable, but not sufficient to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models. We believe that a complementary, largely observation‐independent, step of model evaluation is needed to ensure more transparency of model behavior and greater robustness of scenario‐based analyses. This step should address the following four questions: (1) Do modeled dominant process controls match our system perception? (2) Is my model's sensitivity to changing forcing as expected? (3) Do modeled decision levers show adequate influence? (4) Can we attribute uncertainty sources throughout the projection horizon? We believe that global sensitivity analysis, with its ability to investigate a model's response to joint variations of multiple inputs in a structured way, offers a coherent approach to address all four questions comprehensively. Such additional model evaluation would strengthen stakeholder confidence in model projections and, therefore, into the adaptation strategies derived with the help of impact models.","PeriodicalId":23695,"journal":{"name":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45677626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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