The Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Azerbaijan presented the draft of the 2020 State Budget. According to the document, the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Azerbaijan is expected to decline by 2020. Thus, if GDP is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2019, then it is projected to grow by 2.4% in the following year. GDP is forecasted at 82.7 billion manat in 2020 (US $48.64 billion at the current rate). The Ministry of Finance predicts a 3.3% rise in non-oil GDP, which means it will generate 54.2 billion manat (US $31.88 billion at the current rate) in the non-oil sector next year.
{"title":"2020 State Budget of Azerbaijan: Brief Independent Review","authors":"Cesd Fiscal Research Team","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3485599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3485599","url":null,"abstract":"The Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Azerbaijan presented the draft of the 2020 State Budget. According to the document, the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Azerbaijan is expected to decline by 2020. Thus, if GDP is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2019, then it is projected to grow by 2.4% in the following year. GDP is forecasted at 82.7 billion manat in 2020 (US $48.64 billion at the current rate). The Ministry of Finance predicts a 3.3% rise in non-oil GDP, which means it will generate 54.2 billion manat (US $31.88 billion at the current rate) in the non-oil sector next year.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129480188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unconventional Central Bank Policies in Emerging Asia (Presentation Slides)","authors":"H. Genberg","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3518889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3518889","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132390612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
UNICEF initiated a multi-country initiative to better understand the dynamics of investing in human capital in the Eastern and Southern Africa region (ESAR). The project sought to identify potential opportunities for governments to increase expenditure on the sectors that matter most for children and to close critical investment gaps while maintaining fiscal sustainability (through fiscal space analyses), as well as to pinpoint entry points for UNICEF to more effectively influence government spending decisions (through political economy analyses). In total, fiscal space and political economy analyses were carried out in 16 countries in ESAR between 2016 and 2018. Drawing on information from the country studies as well as from global databases, four key findings emerge: 1. Investment in core human capital sectors is expected to slightly decrease in ESAR in the near term, although there are significant variations across countries. 2. All countries have at least one very strong option to boost related investments – reprioritizing the budget, increasing domestic revenue and improving the efficiency of spending are the most promising avenues, while attracting greater foreign aid and cracking down on illicit financial flows are good approaches in sub-groups of countries. 3. Each fiscal space opportunity faces strong headwinds, which range from the challenges of influencing the politics that underlie the budget process to the complexities of strengthening tax administrative capacity and stifling corruption. 4. There are many opportunities for UNICEF to support the scaling up of child-focused investment throughout the budget cycle as well as by supporting improved budget transparency and accountability practices. In addition to presenting fiscal space country profiles that can form the basis of national financing strategies, the report identifies specific entry points for UNICEF and partners to alter investment trajectories and hence transform children’s lives and the economic and social outlooks of their countries.
{"title":"Fiscal Space for Children and Human Capital in Eastern and Southern Africa: Options and Strategic Entry Points to Address Investment Gaps in 16 Countries","authors":"M. Cummins","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3523558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3523558","url":null,"abstract":"UNICEF initiated a multi-country initiative to better understand the dynamics of investing in human capital in the Eastern and Southern Africa region (ESAR). The project sought to identify potential opportunities for governments to increase expenditure on the sectors that matter most for children and to close critical investment gaps while maintaining fiscal sustainability (through fiscal space analyses), as well as to pinpoint entry points for UNICEF to more effectively influence government spending decisions (through political economy analyses). In total, fiscal space and political economy analyses were carried out in 16 countries in ESAR between 2016 and 2018. \u0000 \u0000Drawing on information from the country studies as well as from global databases, four key findings emerge: \u0000 \u00001. Investment in core human capital sectors is expected to slightly decrease in ESAR in the near term, although there are significant variations across countries. \u0000 \u00002. All countries have at least one very strong option to boost related investments – reprioritizing the budget, increasing domestic revenue and improving the efficiency of spending are the most promising avenues, while attracting greater foreign aid and cracking down on illicit financial flows are good approaches in sub-groups of countries. \u0000 \u00003. Each fiscal space opportunity faces strong headwinds, which range from the challenges of influencing the politics that underlie the budget process to the complexities of strengthening tax administrative capacity and stifling corruption. \u0000 \u00004. There are many opportunities for UNICEF to support the scaling up of child-focused investment throughout the budget cycle as well as by supporting improved budget transparency and accountability practices. \u0000 \u0000In addition to presenting fiscal space country profiles that can form the basis of national financing strategies, the report identifies specific entry points for UNICEF and partners to alter investment trajectories and hence transform children’s lives and the economic and social outlooks of their countries.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121031172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-11-01DOI: 10.17573/CEPAR.2018.2.08
Lejla Lazović Pita, Amina Močević
The purpose of this paper is fill in the literature gap and to analyse taxation of property in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH). By using IMF and OECD methodology defined under taxes on property, our research tries to compare taxes on property in two BIH entities to the international practice. The results are twofold: firstly, inconsistencies to international classification of taxes on property in BIH are identified and secondly, the taxation of property differs in two BIH entities (RS and FBIH). We find that three different types of property taxes are applied –tax on immovable property in RS and real estate transfer tax and so called tax on property in FBIH. We also find that identified differences have an effect on the size and share of revenues from property taxes in both entities which affect local communities and their revenues. Hence, we focus on property taxes in FBIH since they are under cantonal jurisdiction. The research shows that most revenues from property taxes in FBIH are collected in Sarajevo Canton. In fact, most property tax revenues in Sarajevo Canton come from real estate transfer tax revenues and are collected in four municipalities forming the City of Sarajevo. Bearing in mind lack of reliable long term data in both BIH entities related to taxation of property, we conclude with a few policy recommendations and suggestions for future FBIH property related reforms which should in turn simplify the process of property taxation in FBIH and improve the position of local communities in FBIH.
{"title":"Analysis of Taxation of Property in Bosnia and Herzegovina","authors":"Lejla Lazović Pita, Amina Močević","doi":"10.17573/CEPAR.2018.2.08","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17573/CEPAR.2018.2.08","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is fill in the literature gap and to analyse taxation of property in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH). By using IMF and OECD methodology defined under taxes on property, our research tries to compare taxes on property in two BIH entities to the international practice. The results are twofold: firstly, inconsistencies to international classification of taxes on property in BIH are identified and secondly, the taxation of property differs in two BIH entities (RS and FBIH). We find that three different types of property taxes are applied –tax on immovable property in RS and real estate transfer tax and so called tax on property in FBIH. We also find that identified differences have an effect on the size and share of revenues from property taxes in both entities which affect local communities and their revenues. Hence, we focus on property taxes in FBIH since they are under cantonal jurisdiction. The research shows that most revenues from property taxes in FBIH are collected in Sarajevo Canton. In fact, most property tax revenues in Sarajevo Canton come from real estate transfer tax revenues and are collected in four municipalities forming the City of Sarajevo. Bearing in mind lack of reliable long term data in both BIH entities related to taxation of property, we conclude with a few policy recommendations and suggestions for future FBIH property related reforms which should in turn simplify the process of property taxation in FBIH and improve the position of local communities in FBIH.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131169791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the effect of government spending policy during sudden stop crises. Using a quarterly dataset of 30 small open economies, I find that government spending is more effective in stimulating consumption and appreciating the real exchange rate during sudden stops than during normal times. To rationalize this, I build a two-sector model with a collateral constraint on external debt. During a recession, an adverse international shock reduces consumption and undermines the value of collateral. The collapsing asset price in turn tightens the financial constraint, deteriorates the real absorption, and sets-in a fully-blown debt-deflation mechanism. In this context, an increase in government purchases exerts a counteracting force by raising asset prices and stimulating real activities. More importantly, if the government can commit to certain paths of spending in the future, the expected real appreciation will further relax the financial constraint today. I use a calibrated model to explore the multiplier effect under different exchange rate regimes, the asymmetric multipliers, and the multipliers under different levels of shock persistence.
{"title":"Government Spending During Sudden Stop Crises","authors":"Siming Liu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3143681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3143681","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effect of government spending policy during sudden stop crises. Using a quarterly dataset of 30 small open economies, I find that government spending is more effective in stimulating consumption and appreciating the real exchange rate during sudden stops than during normal times. To rationalize this, I build a two-sector model with a collateral constraint on external debt. During a recession, an adverse international shock reduces consumption and undermines the value of collateral. The collapsing asset price in turn tightens the financial constraint, deteriorates the real absorption, and sets-in a fully-blown debt-deflation mechanism. In this context, an increase in government purchases exerts a counteracting force by raising asset prices and stimulating real activities. More importantly, if the government can commit to certain paths of spending in the future, the expected real appreciation will further relax the financial constraint today. I use a calibrated model to explore the multiplier effect under different exchange rate regimes, the asymmetric multipliers, and the multipliers under different levels of shock persistence.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"345 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123537136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
High levels of government debt depress productive investment in a number of ways. High outstanding debt keeps market interest rates high crowding out private investment. Risk of default reduces incentives to invest or creates adverse selection in the mix of investments. Government revenue must service debt at the expense of investment in infrastructure and education. `Debt overhang' exists when the level of debt is so high that it discourages additional investments to be undertaken. This paper estimates benefits to debt reduction by using the natural experiment provided by the debt relief programs: the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative launched by the IMF and World Bank in 1996 and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) extension in 2005. We apply a time-shifted difference-in-differences strategy to evaluate the effects of this intervention. We found that debt relief increased capital investment as much as 1.63% in the short run and 5.79% in the long run. However, there was no effect on foreign direct investment. Output and school enrollment increased both in the short and long run.
{"title":"The Short and Long Run Effects of Debt Reduction: Evidence From Debt Relief Under the Enhanced HIPC and MDR Initiatives","authors":"Kelsey Gamel, Van H. Pham","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3169893","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3169893","url":null,"abstract":"High levels of government debt depress productive investment in a number of ways. High outstanding debt keeps market interest rates high crowding out private investment. Risk of default reduces incentives to invest or creates adverse selection in the mix of investments. Government revenue must service debt at the expense of investment in infrastructure and education. `Debt overhang' exists when the level of debt is so high that it discourages additional investments to be undertaken. This paper estimates benefits to debt reduction by using the natural experiment provided by the debt relief programs: the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative launched by the IMF and World Bank in 1996 and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) extension in 2005. We apply a time-shifted difference-in-differences strategy to evaluate the effects of this intervention. We found that debt relief increased capital investment as much as 1.63% in the short run and 5.79% in the long run. However, there was no effect on foreign direct investment. Output and school enrollment increased both in the short and long run.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123607586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2011 we recommended the application of a structural fiscal rule to the case of Mexico, given the country's repetitive inability to implement a genuine fiscal reform. At that time, we said that due to the absence of a fiscal reform that increases tax revenues significantly, Mexico needs to adopt a structural correction in its public finance through the implementation of a rule. The structural rule would eliminate budget volatility and would give fiscal policy more countercyclical power. Since the structural rule promotes fiscal certainty, the country would reinforce investors' confidence and would strengthen public finances. We established that the rule would not substitute the fiscal reform needed, but it would make the reform less urgent since it would introduce a structural discipline in the government expenditure, which would also make the budgeting process more efficient. At the end of 2012, the newly elected government announced it intended to apply a structural balance rule, but no such rule was ever applied. In 2014, a fiscal reform was implemented. However, given the absence of the structural rule, the gains generated by the reform vanished as a result of more government expenses. An increasing fiscal imbalance and accelerating debt were the costs paid by the country for not implementing the fiscal rule. More recently, an independent fiscal council has been recommended by the IMF. In Part 1 of this paper, we reproduce the structural fiscal rule proposed in 2011, highlighting its main advantages. In Part 2, we make an assessment on the nature of a fiscal council and the main weaknesses for its application in Mexico.
{"title":"Structural Fiscal Rule: A Better Discipline than a Fiscal Council","authors":"A. Coutiño","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3073330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3073330","url":null,"abstract":"In 2011 we recommended the application of a structural fiscal rule to the case of Mexico, given the country's repetitive inability to implement a genuine fiscal reform. At that time, we said that due to the absence of a fiscal reform that increases tax revenues significantly, Mexico needs to adopt a structural correction in its public finance through the implementation of a rule. The structural rule would eliminate budget volatility and would give fiscal policy more countercyclical power. Since the structural rule promotes fiscal certainty, the country would reinforce investors' confidence and would strengthen public finances. We established that the rule would not substitute the fiscal reform needed, but it would make the reform less urgent since it would introduce a structural discipline in the government expenditure, which would also make the budgeting process more efficient. At the end of 2012, the newly elected government announced it intended to apply a structural balance rule, but no such rule was ever applied. In 2014, a fiscal reform was implemented. However, given the absence of the structural rule, the gains generated by the reform vanished as a result of more government expenses. An increasing fiscal imbalance and accelerating debt were the costs paid by the country for not implementing the fiscal rule. More recently, an independent fiscal council has been recommended by the IMF. In Part 1 of this paper, we reproduce the structural fiscal rule proposed in 2011, highlighting its main advantages. In Part 2, we make an assessment on the nature of a fiscal council and the main weaknesses for its application in Mexico.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117002813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper focuses on business cycle synchronisation between Regional Economic Communities in Africa during the period 1980Q1-2016Q4. We consider a time series clustering analysis to evaluate whether the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have similar patterns in business cycle comovements. The clustering analysis reveals five groups of countries that are relatively stable over time. Indeed, EAC is identified as a subgroup within SADC indicating that these two RECs could be merged to form a suitable monetary union in the foreseeable future. The dendogram indicates that more substantial discrepancies are observed in the clusters comparatively to the existing RECs. Finally, overlaps in membership of monetary integration may have an adverse impact on integration process in Africa. This results suggest that Africa is not ready for a common monetary union yet and it would be not surprising if the current time schedule envisaged for the launch of the single currency is postponed.
{"title":"Monetary Integration in Africa: Is There a Business Cycles Synchronisation Between and Within Regional Economic Communities?","authors":"S. Diop","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3102580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3102580","url":null,"abstract":"This paper focuses on business cycle synchronisation between Regional Economic Communities in Africa during the period 1980Q1-2016Q4. We consider a time series clustering analysis to evaluate whether the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have similar patterns in business cycle comovements. The clustering analysis reveals five groups of countries that are relatively stable over time. Indeed, EAC is identified as a subgroup within SADC indicating that these two RECs could be merged to form a suitable monetary union in the foreseeable future. The dendogram indicates that more substantial discrepancies are observed in the clusters comparatively to the existing RECs. Finally, overlaps in membership of monetary integration may have an adverse impact on integration process in Africa. This results suggest that Africa is not ready for a common monetary union yet and it would be not surprising if the current time schedule envisaged for the launch of the single currency is postponed.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"132 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123970661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The key parameters of the federal budget showed faster growth of revenues over expenditures at the end of Q1 2017 compared with Q1 2016. Thus revenues increased by 2.7 p.p. of GDP as budget expenditures gained 0.8 p.p. of GDP. As a result, the budget deficit was curtailed to 1.4% of GDP and the Reserve Fund was kept intact.
{"title":"Federal Budget in January-March 2017: Deficit Reduction","authors":"T. Tischenko, Evgenia Fomina","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2973793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2973793","url":null,"abstract":"The key parameters of the federal budget showed faster growth of revenues over expenditures at the end of Q1 2017 compared with Q1 2016. Thus revenues increased by 2.7 p.p. of GDP as budget expenditures gained 0.8 p.p. of GDP. As a result, the budget deficit was curtailed to 1.4% of GDP and the Reserve Fund was kept intact.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127874570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the last six years, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decisions have included easing the monetary policy rate (MPR) just once, November 2015, and the cash reserve requirement (CRR) has been eased just twice, July and November 2015. In contrast, the MPR has been tightened ten times, including twice during the recession in 2016, and the CRR has also been tightened ten times, including once in 2016. It is very puzzling that MPC finds extraneous reasons, typically about banks or foreign exchange supply, to tighten monetary policy, even when the economy is contracting and can do with some liquidity boost. This paper demonstrates how MPC decisions have become disconnected from economic realities, and suggests the urgent steps that must be taken to ensure a reconnect. We compare the patterns in historical monetary policy decisions across Soludo, Lamido, and Emefiele regimes to trace the emergence of the disconnect and establish the best strategies for reconnecting. We also clarify the numerous misconceptions about the nominal MPR, positive real interest rate, foreign portfolio inflows that are often expressed in the MPC communiques. The economy is bigger and more important than the banks, but MPC statements continue to dwell on banks’ conditions, rather than on economic conditions, indicative of lapses in banking supervision. Failures of micro/macro-prudential policies are spilling over into the monetary policy space, inflicting high growth and employment costs on the economy. What the UK government has done in reforming the Bank of England over the last two decades, especially in functionally separating responsibilities for monetary policy and micro/macro-prudential policies, is an example of the reforms required in Nigeria. Apart from banks’ conditions, MPC statements have also had a lot to say about the need to keep the policy rate high enough to attract foreign portfolio inflows, rather than ease rates to stimulate growth and investment, betraying another spill-over into the monetary policy space from weaknesses in the foreign exchange policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Nigeria’s foreign investment policy must be recalibrated away from preoccupation with volatile and easily reversible portfolio inflows towards greater reliance on harder to reverse diaspora and foreign direct investment inflows. We argue strongly for immediate reforms in Nigeria’s monetary policy processes, Nigeria’s banking supervision arrangements, and Nigeria’s foreign investment policies. Those reforms are needed to ensure an orderly transition to a low MPR/low CRR regime that is urgently needed to boost growth and investment.
在过去的六年里，货币政策委员会(MPC)的决定包括仅在2015年11月一次放松货币政策利率(MPR)，以及仅在2015年7月和11月两次放松现金准备金率(CRR)。相比之下，MPR已经收紧了10次，包括2016年经济衰退期间的两次，CRR也收紧了10次，包括2016年的一次。非常令人费解的是，MPC找到了一些无关的理由(通常是关于银行或外汇供应)来收紧货币政策，即使是在经济萎缩、可以采取一些流动性刺激措施的时候。本文展示了货币政策委员会的决策是如何与经济现实脱节的，并提出了必须采取的紧急措施，以确保重新联系。我们比较了Soludo、Lamido和Emefiele政权的历史货币政策决策模式，以追踪脱节的出现，并建立最佳的重新连接策略。我们还澄清了在货币政策委员会公报中经常表达的关于名义MPR、正实际利率、外国投资组合流入的许多误解。经济比银行更大、更重要，但货币政策委员会的声明继续关注银行状况，而不是经济状况，这表明银行监管存在失误。微观/宏观审慎政策的失败正蔓延至货币政策领域，给经济带来高增长和就业成本。过去二十年来，英国政府在改革英国央行(Bank of England)方面所做的工作，尤其是在职能上分离货币政策和微观/宏观审慎政策的责任，是尼日利亚需要进行改革的一个例子。除了银行的状况外，货币政策委员会的声明也有很多关于保持政策利率足够高以吸引外国投资组合流入的必要性，而不是放松利率以刺激增长和投资，这暴露了尼日利亚中央银行(CBN)外汇政策弱点对货币政策空间的另一个溢出效应。尼日利亚的外国投资政策必须重新调整，从专注于不稳定和容易逆转的投资组合流入，转向更多地依赖更难逆转的侨民和外国直接投资流入。我们强烈主张立即改革尼日利亚的货币政策程序、尼日利亚的银行监管安排和尼日利亚的外国投资政策。这些改革是确保向低MPR/低CRR制度有序过渡所必需的，而低MPR/低CRR制度是促进增长和投资的迫切需要。
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