This paper shows how a production foreman and line managers can be modeled as giving variety of services. The model is essentially a queueing model with arrivals, waiting time and service. The model is first analyzed in the most general way finding the mean values of waiting times and queue length. Different management environment may have very different requirements. Our proposed model gives a good modeling solution to a variety of management styles and environments. Then, a simpler model for the control span of an assembly line foreman is developed and illustrated using a numerical example.
{"title":"Determining Manager's Load & Control Span by Modeling Management as a Service Activity","authors":"Yuval Cohen, S. Rozenes, M. Faccio","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.85","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.85","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows how a production foreman and line managers can be modeled as giving variety of services. The model is essentially a queueing model with arrivals, waiting time and service. The model is first analyzed in the most general way finding the mean values of waiting times and queue length. Different management environment may have very different requirements. Our proposed model gives a good modeling solution to a variety of management styles and environments. Then, a simpler model for the control span of an assembly line foreman is developed and illustrated using a numerical example.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128998543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The role of public transport in sustainable development of cities and regions is crucial. The article is focused on the problem of safety and security risk analysis in terminals. For passenger terminals with the development of information technology, the concentration of vehicles and passengers' accumulation, the problem of increasing the level of safety and security becomes more and nore significant. The article presents the risk management system development for Riga International Coach Terminal (RICT). The authors consider the RICT risk management as a multi-step process, which aims to reduce or compensate for the object upon the occurrence of adverse events. To develop recommendations for the selection of risk management methods there were conducted identification, classification and analysis of specific risks in terminal. Particular emphasis is placed on the collection of data for risk assessment in RICT. The article deals with the possibility of a systematic approach to it, especially the functioning of the passenger terminal in terms of qualitative and quantitative risk management.
{"title":"Holistic Approach to Passenger Terminal Risk Estimation","authors":"I. Yatskiv, Vaira Gromule","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.114","url":null,"abstract":"The role of public transport in sustainable development of cities and regions is crucial. The article is focused on the problem of safety and security risk analysis in terminals. For passenger terminals with the development of information technology, the concentration of vehicles and passengers' accumulation, the problem of increasing the level of safety and security becomes more and nore significant. The article presents the risk management system development for Riga International Coach Terminal (RICT). The authors consider the RICT risk management as a multi-step process, which aims to reduce or compensate for the object upon the occurrence of adverse events. To develop recommendations for the selection of risk management methods there were conducted identification, classification and analysis of specific risks in terminal. Particular emphasis is placed on the collection of data for risk assessment in RICT. The article deals with the possibility of a systematic approach to it, especially the functioning of the passenger terminal in terms of qualitative and quantitative risk management.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114171669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
V. Kharchenko, V. Butenko, O. Odarushchenko, Elena Odarushchenko
Markov's chains are widely applied in quantitative analysis of safety-critical systems. There are few roadblocks for greater application of the Markov's chains: accounting the additional hardware and software component (or FPGA) increases the model state-space and complicates analysis, the non-numerically sophisticated user may find it difficult to decide between the variety of numerical methods and tools to determine the most accurate for their application. Obtaining the high trusted modeling results becomes a nontrivial task. We present the metric-based approach for selection of the applicable solution technique based on the analysis of several Markov chain parameters. Three optimization criteria for informed tool selection were developed to support the decision-making between the wide set of applicable software. Presented approach and criteria are applied as the stepwise tools-and-techniques selection procedure that aims to reduce the risks, increase an accuracy and optimize time needed for Markov's chains analysis. Paper presents the case study of reliability and safety assessment for industrial Nuclear Power Plant Instrumentation and Control system using the optimized tools-and-techniques selection procedure.
{"title":"Markov's Modeling of NPP I&C Reliability and Safety: Optimization of Tool-and-Technique Selection","authors":"V. Kharchenko, V. Butenko, O. Odarushchenko, Elena Odarushchenko","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.61","url":null,"abstract":"Markov's chains are widely applied in quantitative analysis of safety-critical systems. There are few roadblocks for greater application of the Markov's chains: accounting the additional hardware and software component (or FPGA) increases the model state-space and complicates analysis, the non-numerically sophisticated user may find it difficult to decide between the variety of numerical methods and tools to determine the most accurate for their application. Obtaining the high trusted modeling results becomes a nontrivial task. We present the metric-based approach for selection of the applicable solution technique based on the analysis of several Markov chain parameters. Three optimization criteria for informed tool selection were developed to support the decision-making between the wide set of applicable software. Presented approach and criteria are applied as the stepwise tools-and-techniques selection procedure that aims to reduce the risks, increase an accuracy and optimize time needed for Markov's chains analysis. Paper presents the case study of reliability and safety assessment for industrial Nuclear Power Plant Instrumentation and Control system using the optimized tools-and-techniques selection procedure.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"157 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114402005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper is a tribute of deep respect and memory of a wonderful person, friend, scientist Igor Ushakov. Given his brief biography, described his research and creative interests, bibliography of selected works in the field of reliability theory, optimal redundancy, risk analysis. Name of professor Igor Ushakov is established to all specialists in reliability. During many years he was one of key and well-known persons in reliability theory. The aim of this paper-short information about Ushakov: as scientist-initiator of new directions in reliability theory, as professor in famous universities in USSR and USA, as author of technical and not only technical books, poems, as friend for many participants of this Symposium. Big attention in the paper pays to Igor activity during lasts years -- interaction of specialists from different countries by "Gnedenko e-Forum"- an informal International Association of professionals in the field of reliability, where Igor was founfounderder and president.
{"title":"In Memory of Professor Igor Ushakov: In Memory of Our Colleague and Friend","authors":"M. Yastrebenetsky, A. Bochkov","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.13","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is a tribute of deep respect and memory of a wonderful person, friend, scientist Igor Ushakov. Given his brief biography, described his research and creative interests, bibliography of selected works in the field of reliability theory, optimal redundancy, risk analysis. Name of professor Igor Ushakov is established to all specialists in reliability. During many years he was one of key and well-known persons in reliability theory. The aim of this paper-short information about Ushakov: as scientist-initiator of new directions in reliability theory, as professor in famous universities in USSR and USA, as author of technical and not only technical books, poems, as friend for many participants of this Symposium. Big attention in the paper pays to Igor activity during lasts years -- interaction of specialists from different countries by \"Gnedenko e-Forum\"- an informal International Association of professionals in the field of reliability, where Igor was founfounderder and president.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"133 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114097593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents the application of Semi-Markov decision Process(SMDP) for a multi-state disease under random environments to determine the optimal treatment strategy. The subject/patient lives in varying random environments, imparting significant effects on performance/health status. While the environment evolves according to a Semi-Markov Process, in each environment state, the subject goes through several states of disease according to a Semi-Markov Process. In an environment 'k' when the patient state is 'i', one of the following two actions are available: continue the present treatment strategy (C) with a given cost rate hk(i) or initiate a rejuvenating treatment strategy (R) with a cost rate ck(i). In this complex model the optimal strategy is found out minimizing the expected discounted total cost. A special case of Markov environment is discussed indicating the feasibility of the computation of optimal policy. A numerical illustration is also provided to support the viability of the analysis and results. The model provides a useful and flexible representation of acute and chronic events and can be used to explore the economic impact of changes in therapy.
{"title":"Stochastic Modeling of Multi-state Disease Dynamics under Random Environments","authors":"M. Manoharan, T. D. Xavier","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.69","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents the application of Semi-Markov decision Process(SMDP) for a multi-state disease under random environments to determine the optimal treatment strategy. The subject/patient lives in varying random environments, imparting significant effects on performance/health status. While the environment evolves according to a Semi-Markov Process, in each environment state, the subject goes through several states of disease according to a Semi-Markov Process. In an environment 'k' when the patient state is 'i', one of the following two actions are available: continue the present treatment strategy (C) with a given cost rate hk(i) or initiate a rejuvenating treatment strategy (R) with a cost rate ck(i). In this complex model the optimal strategy is found out minimizing the expected discounted total cost. A special case of Markov environment is discussed indicating the feasibility of the computation of optimal policy. A numerical illustration is also provided to support the viability of the analysis and results. The model provides a useful and flexible representation of acute and chronic events and can be used to explore the economic impact of changes in therapy.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127573042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Consider a system where customers arrive to a single-server queue according to a Poisson process with rate λ. The service times are independent and exponential distributed with rate μ. A customer who arrives when the server is busy is blocked and goes to orbit. Each orbit customer then every T units of time to re-enter the system. If he is blocked again, he will keep trying every T units of time. Balking is not allowed. In this paper, we consider retrial policy with deterministic T and we calculate the expected number of customers in orbit (without using balance equations).
{"title":"An M/M/1-Type Queue with an Individual Deterministic Retrial Rate","authors":"Y. Shaki, M. Haviv, Uri Yechieli","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.111","url":null,"abstract":"Consider a system where customers arrive to a single-server queue according to a Poisson process with rate λ. The service times are independent and exponential distributed with rate μ. A customer who arrives when the server is busy is blocked and goes to orbit. Each orbit customer then every T units of time to re-enter the system. If he is blocked again, he will keep trying every T units of time. Balking is not allowed. In this paper, we consider retrial policy with deterministic T and we calculate the expected number of customers in orbit (without using balance equations).","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130441969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper considers a new mathematical model for calculating reliability coefficients of the systems (or elements) which probabilistic characteristics can vary in time. The systems with the operable state and the down state are considered. The new mathematical model can take into account possible "distortions" of an event flows by means of a normalizing flow function Ψ. The normalizing flow function model is presented. The equations for renewal function and failure intensity, distribution of counting process, generating function for the counting process, the Wald equation for NFF-model and limits theorems are deduced.
{"title":"The Normalizing Flow Function Model to Reliability Analysis of the Renewal Objects","authors":"A. Antonov, V. Chepurko","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.57","url":null,"abstract":"The paper considers a new mathematical model for calculating reliability coefficients of the systems (or elements) which probabilistic characteristics can vary in time. The systems with the operable state and the down state are considered. The new mathematical model can take into account possible \"distortions\" of an event flows by means of a normalizing flow function Ψ. The normalizing flow function model is presented. The equations for renewal function and failure intensity, distribution of counting process, generating function for the counting process, the Wald equation for NFF-model and limits theorems are deduced.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125743306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The increasing role of wind power generation has created new challenges in power system planning and operation. Uncertainty of wind energy may lead to significant load-generation imbalances resulting in large frequency deviations, and hence increase system operation risk. Large wind penetration may also deteriorate the system primary frequency response due to its limited contribution to both system inertia and frequency control under the current practice of determining primary reserve. This paper proposes a risk-based approach to the adequacy assessment of primary frequency response. It can also assist in determining primary reserves requirements for a power system with significant penetration of wind power generation. A simplified dynamic model of frequency taking into account the system inertia and frequency control services is developed for fast evaluation of operational risks due to inadequate frequency response without performing dynamic simulations.
{"title":"Stochastic Models in Risk-Based Assessment of Reserve Requirements for a Power System with High Wind Power Generation","authors":"M. Negnevitsky, D. H. Nguyen, M. Piekutowski","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.32","url":null,"abstract":"The increasing role of wind power generation has created new challenges in power system planning and operation. Uncertainty of wind energy may lead to significant load-generation imbalances resulting in large frequency deviations, and hence increase system operation risk. Large wind penetration may also deteriorate the system primary frequency response due to its limited contribution to both system inertia and frequency control under the current practice of determining primary reserve. This paper proposes a risk-based approach to the adequacy assessment of primary frequency response. It can also assist in determining primary reserves requirements for a power system with significant penetration of wind power generation. A simplified dynamic model of frequency taking into account the system inertia and frequency control services is developed for fast evaluation of operational risks due to inadequate frequency response without performing dynamic simulations.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128679469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The theme of the article is theoretical renovation of urban regeneration of small towns in Poland. The author describes factors, which when used, will help reshape urban town space into neighboring and social urban terrains. First of all the article focuses on characteristics of attractive dwelling areas, which according to the author, are responsible for a development and strengthening of neighborhoods in towns. The author also touches a problem of needs and social aspirations in the context of functional and usable diversity and social diversity.
{"title":"Adaptation of Small Towns to Urban Strengthening","authors":"K. Paprzyca","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.106","url":null,"abstract":"The theme of the article is theoretical renovation of urban regeneration of small towns in Poland. The author describes factors, which when used, will help reshape urban town space into neighboring and social urban terrains. First of all the article focuses on characteristics of attractive dwelling areas, which according to the author, are responsible for a development and strengthening of neighborhoods in towns. The author also touches a problem of needs and social aspirations in the context of functional and usable diversity and social diversity.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134598262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
V. Kalashnikov, N. Kalashnykova, Felipe J. Castillo-Pérez
We study a special bilevel programming problem that arises in transactions between a Natural Gas Shipping Company and a Pipeline Operator. Because of the business relationships between these two actors, the timing and objectives of their decision-making process are different. In order to model that, bilevel programming was traditionally used in previous works. The problem theoretically studied to facilitate its solution, this included linear reformulation, heuristic approaches, and branch-and-bound techniques. We present a linear programming reformulation of the latest version of the model, which is easier and faster to solve numerically. This reformulation makes it easier to theoretically analyze the problem, allowing us to draw some conclusions about the nature of the solution. Since elements of uncertainty are definitely present in the bilevel natural gas cash-out problem, its stochastic formulation is developed in form of a bilevel multi-stage stochastic programming model with recourse. After reducing the original formulation to a bilevel linear problem, a stochastic scenario tree is defined by its node events, and time series forecasting is used to produce stochastic values for data of natural gas price and demand. Numerical experiments were run to compare the stochastic solution with the perfect information solution and the expected value solutions.
{"title":"Bilevel Natural Gas Cash-Out Problems: Deterministic and Stochastic Approaches","authors":"V. Kalashnikov, N. Kalashnykova, Felipe J. Castillo-Pérez","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.96","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.96","url":null,"abstract":"We study a special bilevel programming problem that arises in transactions between a Natural Gas Shipping Company and a Pipeline Operator. Because of the business relationships between these two actors, the timing and objectives of their decision-making process are different. In order to model that, bilevel programming was traditionally used in previous works. The problem theoretically studied to facilitate its solution, this included linear reformulation, heuristic approaches, and branch-and-bound techniques. We present a linear programming reformulation of the latest version of the model, which is easier and faster to solve numerically. This reformulation makes it easier to theoretically analyze the problem, allowing us to draw some conclusions about the nature of the solution. Since elements of uncertainty are definitely present in the bilevel natural gas cash-out problem, its stochastic formulation is developed in form of a bilevel multi-stage stochastic programming model with recourse. After reducing the original formulation to a bilevel linear problem, a stochastic scenario tree is defined by its node events, and time series forecasting is used to produce stochastic values for data of natural gas price and demand. Numerical experiments were run to compare the stochastic solution with the perfect information solution and the expected value solutions.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133543064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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