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2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)最新文献

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Detecting the Maintenance Disruption in Competitive Queue 竞争队列中的维修中断检测
K. Szajowski
The aim of the paper is to adopt the game theory models to determine the appropriate moment to stop the stochastic (queue) system in order to correct its parameter (to do service of the system). There are M point processes which form the M-variate counting process. Each of them has a random moment of changing the parameters. The resultant marked point process can change its characteristics in many moments. If there are observers of each coordinating process to detect the change point and their discoveries are collected in the maintenance center then the set of critical security events could be defined. On this basis, action is being taken on maintaining the system in standby mode. In the presented research the definition of the maintenance time is proposed based on observers' discoveries with the game theory model. The observers' action is administered to collect information or make decisions based on conditions of rivalry and cooperation following the rules of the management system. The former research on such problem has been devoted to the discrete time systems (cf. [27], [41]). The results insignificantly extend the range of application, explain the structure of the optimal detector in various circumstances and shows new details of the solution construction. The problem is reformulated to optimal stopping of the observed sequences by the players. The detailed analysis of the problem is presented to show the form of optimal decision function.
本文的目的是采用博弈论模型来确定随机(队列)系统停止的适当时刻,以纠正其参数(为系统服务)。有M个点过程构成了M变量计数过程。它们中的每一个都有一个改变参数的随机时刻。所得到的标记点过程可以在许多时刻改变其特性。如果每个协调过程都有观察者来检测变更点,并且他们的发现被收集到维护中心,那么就可以定义关键安全事件集。在此基础上,采取措施将系统维持在待机模式。在本研究中,提出了基于观察者发现的博弈论模型来定义维修时间。观察员的行动是根据管理系统的规则,根据竞争和合作的情况收集信息或作出决定。以往对这一问题的研究主要集中在离散时间系统上(参见[27],[41])。结果不显著地扩展了应用范围,解释了各种情况下最优检测器的结构,并展示了解构建的新细节。这个问题被重新表述为玩家观察到的序列的最佳停止。对该问题进行了详细分析,给出了最优决策函数的形式。
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引用次数: 2
Multi-state Deteriorating System Dependability with Maintenance Using Monte Carlo Simulation 基于蒙特卡罗仿真的多状态退化系统可靠性维护
S. Malefaki, V. Koutras, A. Platis
In this paper a multi-state deteriorating system in which condition based preventive maintenance is performed in order to improve its availability and performance, is modeled and studied extensively. The system experiences various states of deterioration before a total failure occurs. At each deterioration state an inspection is carried out at constant intervals in order to check if the system should undergo any preventive maintenance, either minimal or major. Different predefined levels of deterioration are settled which indicate the states where minimal and major maintenance start to take place. When, despite maintenance the system fails, a repair procedure is triggered and after its completion, the system returns to its initial perfect state. The proposed model incorporates also imperfect maintenance, either minimal or major, failed maintenance and sudden failures that may occur mostly due to external factors at any deterioration state. A model with general sojourn time distribution is proposed and thus a semi-Markov process is used to model system's evolution in time. The transient availability, the reliability and the operational cost at any given time instant t are estimated using Monte Carlo simulation instead of analytical computation which in most cases is very difficult or even infeasible.
本文对多状态劣化系统进行了建模和研究,对多状态劣化系统进行了基于状态的预防性维护,以提高系统的可用性和性能。在完全失效之前,系统会经历各种劣化状态。在每个劣化状态下,每隔一定的时间间隔进行一次检查,以检查系统是否需要进行预防性维护,无论是小的还是大的。不同的预先定义的劣化程度被确定,这些劣化程度表明开始进行最小和主要维护的状态。尽管进行了维护,但当系统出现故障时,会触发一个修复程序,修复完成后,系统恢复到初始的完美状态。所提出的模型还包括不完善的维护,无论是最小的还是主要的,失败的维护和在任何劣化状态下可能主要由外部因素引起的突然故障。提出了一个具有一般逗留时间分布的模型,并用半马尔可夫过程来描述系统的时间演化。利用蒙特卡罗模拟来估计任意时刻t的暂态可用性、可靠性和运行成本,而不是在大多数情况下非常困难甚至不可行的解析计算。
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引用次数: 3
Asymptotic Expansions for Stationary Distributions of Perturbed Semi-Markov Processes 扰动半马尔可夫过程平稳分布的渐近展开式
D. Silvestrov, S. Silvestrov
New algorithms for computing asymptotic expansions for power moments of hitting times and stationary and quasi-stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes are presented. The algorithms are based on special techniques of sequential phase space reduction, which can be applied to models with an arbitrary asymptotic communicative structure of phase spaces.
给出了计算碰撞时间幂矩的渐近展开式和非线性摄动半马尔可夫过程的平稳分布和拟平稳分布的新算法。该算法基于序列相空间约简的特殊技术,可以应用于具有任意渐近通信结构的相空间模型。
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引用次数: 29
Organizational Heterogeneity of the Human Genome: Significant Variation of Recombination Rate of 100 kbp Sequences within GC Ranges 人类基因组的组织异质性:100 kbp序列在GC范围内重组率的显著差异
S. Frenkel, V. Kirzhner, Z. Frenkel, A. Korol
The association of nucleotide composition of genome sequences with their functional characteristics is widely known, among the most studied characteristics correlated with GC content are gene density and expression and recombination rate. Previously, we found that similar in nucleotide composition genomic regions may exhibit considerable differences in sequence organization and hypothesized that organizationally different regions may also exhibit functional and evolutionary heterogeneity. Here we examine this hypothesis by classifying 100 kbp segments of human genome into 14 compositionally homogeneous groups according to their GC content and differentiating the segments within each group by organization patterns (OP) using oligonucleotide (k-mer) counting, referred to as Compositional Spectra (CS) Analysis. We identified 141 groups of segments different in their CS organization and found that obtained compositionally similar OP groups (OPG) differ significantly in their recombination rate. This conclusion was robust with respect to the selected window size (confirmed by independent analysis for 50 kb and 200 kb segments). We further performed a test of contribution of specific k-mers in clustering of 100 kbp segments to OPGs with contrast levels of recombination rates. Eight k-mers, which demonstrated highest importance for such clustering, allowed correct classification at least 76% of segments in all 14 OPG pairs. Moreover, these k-mers proved similar with five previously described patterns related to recombination hotspots including the most known 13 bp recombination motif CCNCCNTNNCCNC.
基因组序列的核苷酸组成与其功能特征的关系是众所周知的,与GC含量相关的基因密度、表达和重组率是研究最多的特征。先前,我们发现核苷酸组成相似的基因组区域可能在序列组织上表现出相当大的差异,并假设组织不同的区域也可能表现出功能和进化的异质性。在这里,我们通过将人类基因组的100 kbp片段根据其GC含量分为14个组成均匀的组,并使用寡核苷酸(k-mer)计数(称为成分光谱(CS)分析)通过组织模式(OP)区分每组中的片段,来检验这一假设。我们鉴定了141组CS组织不同的片段,发现获得的成分相似的OP组(OPG)在重组率上存在显著差异。这个结论对于选择的窗口大小是可靠的(通过对50 kb和200 kb片段的独立分析证实)。我们进一步测试了100 kbp片段集群中特定k-mers对OPGs的贡献,并对比了重组率水平。8个k-mers对这种聚类表现出最高的重要性,在所有14对OPG中至少有76%的片段被正确分类。此外,这些k-mers被证明与先前描述的与重组热点相关的五种模式相似,包括最著名的13 bp重组基序CCNCCNTNNCCNC。
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引用次数: 0
A Weibull Model with Time-Varying Scale Parameter for Modeling Failure Processes of Repairable Systems 可修系统故障过程的时变尺度参数威布尔模型
R. Jiang
A lifetime distribution model is usually inappropriate for modeling the times between successive failures (TBF) of a repairable system since the TBFs are generally not independent and identically distributed. Traditional methods for modeling the failure process of repairable systems focus on fitting the mean cumulative function (MCF) to a parametric model such as the power-law model. However, the fitted model does not directly provide the distribution of the time to the next failure at a given system age or failure event. To address this issue, we propose a Weibull model with constant shape parameter and time-varying scale parameter for modeling TBFs of a repairable system in this paper. It includes the Weibull distribution as its special case. Three specific parametric models for the scale parameter are developed. The models are suitable for the situations where the system's MTBF can be monotonic or bathtub-shaped, and bounded. Such a model can be viewed as a Weibull process model. Potential applications of the models include modeling manufacturing defect occurrence processes and evaluating the effectiveness of maintenance. Three real-world examples are included to illustrate the appropriateness and usefulness of these models.
寿命分布模型通常不适用于可修系统的连续故障间隔时间(TBF)建模,因为TBF通常不是独立且相同分布的。传统的可修系统故障过程建模方法侧重于将平均累积函数(MCF)拟合到幂律模型等参数模型上。然而,拟合模型不能直接提供给定系统年龄或故障事件下下一次故障的时间分布。为了解决这一问题,本文提出了一种具有恒定形状参数和时变尺度参数的威布尔模型来建模可修系统的tbf。它包括威布尔分布作为它的特例。提出了三种具体的尺度参数模型。该模型适用于系统的MTBF可能是单调的或浴缸形的,并且有界的情况。这种模型可以看作是威布尔过程模型。这些模型的潜在应用包括制造缺陷发生过程的建模和维护有效性的评估。包括三个现实世界的例子来说明这些模型的适当性和有用性。
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引用次数: 3
How Does Supply Network Evolution and Its Topological Structure Impact Supply Chain Performance? 供应网络演化及其拓扑结构如何影响供应链绩效?
P. Orenstein
The idea of this research is to explore the evolution of a supply chain using an empirical approach. This can be achieved by harnessing the power of Bloomberg data with network visualization software. Such an investigation will help identify supply chain archetypes as well as lead to an understanding of how these supply chains might change over time. Coupled with additional secondary data sources, we could learn more about how these changes might be impacted by, and impact, firm performance. In this paper, we explore a number of supply networks and develop their associated supply chain maps. We use key metrics from social network analysis to quantify the nature of these networks and understand how they evolve. This empirical data is then used to create a paradigm which explains the structure of these supply networks. We use the maps and the metrics developed to describe them to draw preliminary conclusions about how supply network topology impacts its performance.
本研究的想法是利用实证方法探索供应链的演变。这可以通过利用彭博数据和网络可视化软件的力量来实现。这样的调查将有助于确定供应链原型,并导致对这些供应链如何随时间变化的理解。再加上额外的辅助数据源,我们可以更多地了解这些变化如何受到公司绩效的影响。在本文中,我们探索了一些供应网络,并开发了相关的供应链图。我们使用社交网络分析的关键指标来量化这些网络的性质,并了解它们是如何演变的。然后使用这些经验数据来创建解释这些供应网络结构的范式。我们使用地图和开发的指标来描述它们,以得出关于供应网络拓扑如何影响其性能的初步结论。
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引用次数: 18
Some Processes and Models on Deformed Stochastic Bases 变形随机基上的一些过程和模型
I. Pavlov
This is a survey of results of the Rostov-on-Don team on the deformed martingales of the 1st and the 2nd kind, Haar interpolations of martingales and their applications. First of all we give discrete-parameter versions of representation theorems and of optional sampling theorems for deformed martingales. Then we discribe Haar interpolation techniques for statical processes. And in the end we explane how complete deformed systems can be investigated with the help of Haar interpolations.
本文综述了顿河畔罗斯托夫小组关于第一类和第二类变形鞅、鞅的哈尔插值及其应用的研究成果。首先,我们给出了变形鞅的离散参数表示定理和可选抽样定理。然后描述了静态过程的哈尔插值技术。最后,我们解释了如何利用哈尔插值来研究完全变形系统。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of Wind Power Scenario Reduction Techniques on Stochastic Unit Commitment 风电情景缩减技术对随机机组承诺的影响
Ershun Du, Ning Zhang, C. Kang, Jianhua Bai, Lu Cheng, Yi Ding
Stochastic unit commitment (SUC) is an effective method widely used to cope with the uncertainty of wind power. For the limitation of computation capability, only limited members of representative scenario can be considered in SUC. It thus rises the concern that whether the selected scenarios can fully represent the uncertainty nature of wind power. In this paper, the performance of reduced scenarios is quantified by both its statistical quality and its economic value on the optimality of SUC. Two metrics are proposed to quantify the distortion of the stochastic quality of wind power during the scenario reduction process: output uncertainty and ramp diversity. The economic value of reduced scenarios is evaluated as the difference between the optimal cost of the SUC model associated with limited scenarios and the expected "actual" operating costs when considering all the possible scenarios. Then, this paper reviews several typical wind power scenario techniques and categorizes them by both the scenario clustering approach and scenario reduction criterion. The quality of each method is tested using the real wind power data from NREL database and the modified IEEE RTS-79 system. Results show that the performance of SUC is more sensitive to the output uncertainty approximation rather than the ramp diversity approximation of reduced scenarios.
随机机组承诺(SUC)是一种广泛应用于应对风电不确定性的有效方法。由于计算能力的限制,在SUC中只能考虑具有代表性的场景的有限成员。这就引起了人们的关注,即所选择的情景是否能充分代表风力发电的不确定性。本文从统计质量和经济价值两个方面量化了简化情景对SUC最优性的影响。在情景缩减过程中,提出了两个量化风电随机质量失真的指标:输出不确定性和坡道多样性。精简方案的经济价值是考虑所有可能方案时,SUC模型在有限方案下的最优成本与预期“实际”运营成本之差。然后,回顾了几种典型的风电场景技术,并采用场景聚类方法和场景约简准则对其进行了分类。利用NREL数据库中的实际风电数据和改进后的IEEE RTS-79系统对每种方法的质量进行了测试。结果表明,在简化的场景下,SUC的性能对输出不确定性近似比斜坡分集近似更敏感。
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引用次数: 11
Forecasting of Staff Resistance Level in the Process of Introduction of New Standards 新标准引入过程中员工阻力水平的预测
Y. Klochkov, E. Klochkova, I. Vasilieva
Human factor plays a crucial role at a company. Thus, it is important to consider and forecast its reaction (such as resistance) at implementation of changes. Our paper suggests an approach which compares models of new management standards to be introduced with key concepts of a management system as seen by management staff. If we define the coordination degree between management model suggested by an official standard and conceptual subjective model of a member of managerial staff, we can make a conclusion about the resistance degree to changes. Assessment of the resistance degree and evaluation of resistance causes allows us organizing special training aimed at elimination of unharmonious and conflictive aspects of new standards. As a result of the training the most compromise pilot project can be chosen to valuate changes.
人的因素在公司里起着至关重要的作用。因此,重要的是要考虑和预测其在实施变化时的反应(如阻力)。我们的论文提出了一种方法,将新管理标准的模型与管理人员所看到的管理系统的关键概念进行比较。如果我们定义官方标准所建议的管理模式与管理人员的概念主观模式之间的协调程度,就可以得出对变革的抗拒程度。对阻力程度的评估和阻力原因的评估使我们能够组织专门的培训,旨在消除新标准的不和谐和冲突方面。作为培训的结果,可以选择最折衷的试点项目来评估变化。
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引用次数: 24
Weak Signal Carried by Chromatin DNA Sequences: Zooming In and Sobering Surprises 染色质DNA序列携带的弱信号:放大和清醒的惊喜
E. Trifonov
The 35 year long story of the chromatin signal (code) started with discovery of a very weak 10-11 base sequence periodicity of AA and TT dinucleotides, detected by distance analysis (equivalent of autocorrelation in time series). It soon became clear that this is counter-phase oscillation of AA and TT, or rather of RR and YY - by a version of multiple alignment ("synchronous detection" in signal processing). The campaign incrementally agonized through reconstruction of signal from its parts, N-gram Shannon extension and strong nucleosomes (SNs) with visible sequence periodicity to (RRRRRYYYYY)n pattern, and culminated in this form, with small changes suggested by consensuses from strong nucleosomes. 10-11 base YR dinucleotide periodicity (first suggested by Zhurkin) is a part of the above consensus. The periodically repeating YR elements form long tracks of hundreds to thousands base-pairs indicating that the chromatin consists of columnar structures, rather than of solitary nucleosomes. In particular, the classical SV40 minichromosome appears to form one continuous column.
染色质信号(代码)长达35年的历史始于发现AA和TT二核苷酸非常弱的10-11个碱基序列周期,通过距离分析(相当于时间序列的自相关)检测到。很快就清楚了,这是AA和TT的反相振荡,或者更确切地说,是RR和YY的反相振荡——通过一种版本的多重对准(信号处理中的“同步检测”)。通过部分信号的重建,n -gram香农延伸和具有明显序列周期性(RRRRRYYYYY)n模式的强核小体(SNs),运动逐渐痛苦,最终以这种形式结束,由强核小体的共识提示微小变化。10-11碱基YR二核苷酸周期性(最早由Zhurkin提出)是上述共识的一部分。周期性重复的YR元素形成数百到数千个碱基对的长轨迹,表明染色质由柱状结构组成,而不是孤立的核小体。特别是,经典的SV40小染色体似乎形成一个连续的柱。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)
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